View
1.043
Download
1
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
15-52( 673) 2015.12.24
2016 10
G2
Tight Money, Sluggish Economy
DELAY
3%
v
2016 10
Executive Summary
1. 2016 10 1
G2 2
Tight Money, Sluggish Economy 4
6
8
3% 10
12
14
16
DELAY 18
20
, .
:
:
(2072-6219, sododuk1@hri.co.kr)
(2072-6219, sododuk1@hri.co.kr)
i
2016 10
G2
.
(TPP)
(RCEP)
. 2016 IMF SDR
. (AIIB)
(WB),
(ADB) .
.
.
Tight Money, Sluggish Economy
.
. ,
. ,
. 2017
.
.
2016 , ,
3 .
Executive Summary
ii
, ,
( )
.
.
30 , 15 .
1~2 1%
. ,
,
.
3%
3%
. , , R&D
.
.
, .
2% ,
.
2016
3% . 2015
,
. SOC ,
. ,
, .
iii
,
. 3
,
. 1.4
, .
2016
. 2015
.
. ,
.
DELAY
2016 (DELAY). DELAY 2016
5 (Demand) ,
(Excessive supply), (Leading sector) ,
(Asia risk) , (counter cYclical)
. ,
FTA , ,
, , .
2016
.
.
,
.
2016 10
1
1. 2016 10
2016
- : 2016 G2 , Tight Money Sluggish
Economy, , 4
- : 3% , ,
, , DELAY,
6
< 2016 10 >
(4)
G2 -
Tight Money, Sluggish Economy-
- ,
-
(6)
3% -
- 2016
2%
-
-
DELAY- 2016
(DELAY)
- 2016
2016 10
2
G2
()
- GDP 2016 2020
18% (2020 GDP 23%)
-
() , , , 4
- : TPP1) RCEP2)
< GDP/ GDP > < TPP RCEP GDP// >
: IMF . : IMF, UN . : 1) GDP, 2015 / 2013.
2) RCEP , .
1) TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership, ).
2) RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ).
2016 10
3
- : 2016 IMF3) SDR 4)
2009
,
, SDR
- : WB5)
ADB6) AIIB7)
WB ADB
AIIB
AIIB
- :
, , ()
, ADIZ 8)
()
(2072-6235, juwon@hri.co.kr)
3) IMF(International Monetary Fund, ).
4) SDR(Special Drawing Rights, ) IMF ,
, , , 5 () .
5) WB(World Bank, ).
6) ADB(Asia Development Bank, ).
7) AIIB(Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, ).
8) ADIZ(Air Defense Identification Zone, ).
2016 10
4
Tight Money, Sluggish Economy
()
- ,
2016
-
()
,
- :
2016 ,
< > < >
: FRB. : EPFR( ).
2016 10
5
- : ,
2014
- :
,
2014 4~2015 4
1,157 ,
- : 2017
()
< > < >
(%)
2015 2016 2017
2.1 2.4 2.2
5.0 4.7 4.7
0.4 1.6 1.9
: , . : 2015 1 2 2015 12 10
.
: FRB(2015.12.16). : 4
, 4 .
(2072-6240, jogyurim@hri.co.kr)
2016 10
6
() , ,
3
- GDP
() 2016 , ,
-
2015 1 9)
(1,142), (988), (728)
, 20%
2015 1 1 (1,035 )
(1,035 )
( CPI 2015 4.8%, 2016
5.9% ) (2015 2 -1.3%)
< GDP > < >
8.8%p
8.2%p 3.0%p
5.9
6.7
5.0 5.0 4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
2001~05 2006~10 2011~15 2016~18
(%) (%)
()
GDP
1,142
988728
303176
167146
4325
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500
()
: IMF. : , GDP
( ).
: (IMF, ,Bloomberg ).
: 2015 1 .
9) 3 , 1
, 1/3 .
2016 10
7
- 10)
,
- ,
2014 2016
,
11)
< (2014) > <
(2011 2016) >
42.1 28.7
10.3 8.3
7.3 6.7 6.2
4.8 4.5
3.5 2.8 2.5
0 10 20 30 40 50
(%)
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10
: /GDP
(%p)
: /GDP
(%p)
: (IMF, UN Comtrade). :
= (/GDP) (/).
: IMF. : 2016 IMF .
()
- , ,
,
(2072-6214, jphong@hri.co.kr)
10) 2015~20 6% ( ) .
11) 3 (WTI, Dubai, Brent) 2014 105, 88, 2015 56
, 7~11 48 ( : petronet), 2016 40
2015 ( : , 2015 10, 2016 ).
2016 10
8
()
-
2001 9.11
,
() 15~30
- ()
: 30
: 15
< > < >
: Bloomberg. : 100 (
).
: Bloomberg. : 1) (
).: 2) .
2016 10
9
- ()
: ,
: 1~2 1%
- ,
< > < >
: Bloomberg. : 100p .
: OECD. : 100p .
() ,
,
(2072-6274, junius73@hri.co.kr)
2016 10
10
3%
() 2%
, 3%
- OECD 2022 2%(2.94%)
, ,
2%
() , ,
- : , , R&D
R&D
, R&D
< > < >
: , .
: 2015, 2016
.
: .
2016 10
11
- :
, ,
,
,
- :
,
,
, ,
- :
,
, ,
,
() 2% ,
-
,
(2072-6211, ck1009@hri.co.kr)
2016 10
12
'
() 2016
2%
- 2016
3%
2016
, 1/4
() 2015
, 2016
- 2015
7 12
() 2 0.3% 3 1.3%
103p 106p, BSI 69p 71p
< > < >
1.1
0.5
0.8
0.3
0.8
0.3
1.3
3.9 3.4
3.3
2.7 2.5 2.2 2.7
1
2
3
4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
'14.I II III IV '15.I II III
() ()(%) (%)
108
106 106
103 102 103
106 78
75 76 75 74 69 71
65
70
75
80
85
102
104
106
108
110
'14.I II III IV 15.I II III
()
BSI()
(p, =100) (p, =100)
: . : . : BSI .
2016 10
13
- 2015 SOC 2016
SOC
2015 1.3 26.1 12)
2015 2 0.2%p
3 0.7%p
SOC
2016 23.7 2015 26.1 9.2%
-
2016
,
< (2015.8.) >
0.4 2.5
0.6 3.1
0.0 1.1
-9.9 -9.2
-2.0 3.2
4.4 2.3 2.2
-15 -10 -5 0 5
R&D
SOC
(%)
,
30% ()
(10)
(10.19~11.1)
66 70
(10)
66 70
(10)
()
: . : .
() ,
,
(2072-6214, jphong@hri.co.kr)
12) (+4.7 ), (+1.7 ) ( : , 2015 7, 12 .).
2016 10
14
()
- : ,
- :
,
()
,
- :
2012 10 99.6p 100p
, 2012 10 100.5p
100p
2011 1,778 2014 1,540 238
< > < 13) >
( : )
11 12 13 14
14)
(14-11)
313 342 412 459 146
: BIS.
: 1) 2010=100 .2) 100 .
: (UN Comtrade ).
2016 10
15
- : 1.4
, 2012 2014
3.1 2.8 0.3
, 1.9 1.4 0.5
2005 11.1% 2013 15.5% ,
3.2% 4.1%
< 10 > < >16)17)
()
()12 14 12 14
-1.9 -1.4 3.1 2.8 -2.4 -1.8 1.3 1.2 -1.9 -1.5 2.2 1.9
-2.5 -1.7 3.1 2.8 -2.3 -1.7 2.7 2.5 -1.3 -0.9 3.3 2.9 4.5 4.3 5.4 4.5 -2.9 -3.3 4.1 3.7 -1.2 -1.1 3.4 2.8
-2.8 -1.8 4.0 3.6 -1.9 -1.6 4.2 4.2
: . : (CEIC, KOSTAT, UNcomtrade, ).
()
,
(2072-6239, dm100@hri.co.kr)
13) (2015), , 15-45, 2015.11.06.
14) 2011 2014 .
15) 25% .
16) (, , , ), (, ,
, , , , ), (, , , ).
17) (2015), , 15-15, 2015.04.10.
2016 10
16
()
-
,
()
2016
- : 2015
2015 1~10 ( 60 ) ( 42 )
,
- :
,
, (2013 1 3.00%2015 10 1.56%)
, (-)
5.54%p
< > < >
: .
: .
: , , .
: =/(-).
2016 10
17
- :
2015 10
181.7, 189.5 177.9(), 184.6()
,
, ,
- :
2015 2016
1.6,
,
- : 2016
< > < >()
2015 2016
6,319 7,413 2,165 6,709
1,200 2,860 700 2,700
1,487 1,115 0 0
0 400 145 0
2,632 3,038 1,040 3,360
0 0 280 649
: .
: 100 > . : (15.1.20).
()
- ,
(2072-6222, yhlee@hri.co.kr)
2016 10
18
DELAY18)
() 2016 (DELAY)
- DELAY 2016 5
() 2016 5 , (Demand) ,
(Excessive supply), (Leading sector) ,
(Asia risk) , (counter
cYclical)
- (Demand) :
2016
- (Excessive supply) : (SOC)
,
- (Leading sector) :
, ,
, ICT
2016
18) (2015 11) 2016 5 - (DELAY)
, 15-47( 668) .
2016 10
19
- (Asia risk) :
,
IT, , ,
- (counter cYclical) :
< > < >
: , IMF. : (), (). : = +.
() 2016
, FTA , ,
, ,
(2072-6235, juwon@hri.co.kr)
2016 10
20
() 2016
- 8.25
(10. 2026) ,
8.25
- 2016
: 5 ,
2016 5 36
: 1 ,
:
2016
< HRI > < 2016 ( ) >
- , 5
(7 , )
- ,
- ( )
-
-
-
- ,
-
-
-
: , , 2015. 11. 25.
2016 10
21
()
- :
,
- : ,
, -
,
,
,
- : ,
,
()
,
- ,
,
- () ()
,
(2072-6221, sjhong@hri.co.kr)
Recommended