2016년 10대 경제트렌드_HRI

15-52( 673) 2015.12.24

2016 10

G2

Tight Money, Sluggish Economy

DELAY

3%

v

2016 10

Executive Summary

1. 2016 10 1

G2 2

Tight Money, Sluggish Economy 4

6

8

3% 10

12

14

16

DELAY 18

20

, .

:

:

(2072-6219, [email protected])


i

2016 10

G2

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(RCEP)

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(WB),

(ADB) .

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Executive Summary

ii

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iii

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DELAY

2016 (DELAY). DELAY 2016

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2016 10

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1. 2016 10

2016

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< 2016 10 >

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G2 -

Tight Money, Sluggish Economy-

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3% -

- 2016

2%

-

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DELAY- 2016

(DELAY)

- 2016

2016 10

2

G2

()

- GDP 2016 2020

18% (2020 GDP 23%)

-

() , , , 4

- : TPP1) RCEP2)

< GDP/ GDP > < TPP RCEP GDP// >

: IMF . : IMF, UN . : 1) GDP, 2015 / 2013.

2) RCEP , .

1) TPP(Trans-Pacific Partnership, ).

2) RCEP(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, ).

2016 10

3

- : 2016 IMF3) SDR 4)

2009

,

, SDR

- : WB5)

ADB6) AIIB7)

WB ADB

AIIB

AIIB

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, , ()

, ADIZ 8)

()


3) IMF(International Monetary Fund, ).

4) SDR(Special Drawing Rights, ) IMF ,

, , , 5 () .

5) WB(World Bank, ).

6) ADB(Asia Development Bank, ).

7) AIIB(Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, ).

8) ADIZ(Air Defense Identification Zone, ).

2016 10

4


()

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2016

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()

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- :

2016 ,

< > < >

: FRB. : EPFR( ).

2016 10

5

- : ,

2014

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,

2014 4~2015 4

1,157 ,

- : 2017

()

< > < >

(%)

2015 2016 2017

2.1 2.4 2.2

5.0 4.7 4.7

0.4 1.6 1.9

: , . : 2015 1 2 2015 12 10

.

: FRB(2015.12.16). : 4

, 4 .


2016 10

6

() , ,

3

- GDP

() 2016 , ,

-

2015 1 9)

(1,142), (988), (728)

, 20%

2015 1 1 (1,035 )

(1,035 )

( CPI 2015 4.8%, 2016

5.9% ) (2015 2 -1.3%)

< GDP > < >

8.8%p

8.2%p 3.0%p

5.9

6.7

5.0 5.0 4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

0

10

20

30

40

50

2001~05 2006~10 2011~15 2016~18

(%) (%)

()

GDP

1,142

988728

303176

167146

4325

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

()

: IMF. : , GDP

( ).

: (IMF, ,Bloomberg ).

: 2015 1 .

9) 3 , 1

, 1/3 .

2016 10

7

- 10)

,

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2014 2016

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11)

< (2014) > <

(2011 2016) >

42.1 28.7

10.3 8.3

7.3 6.7 6.2

4.8 4.5

3.5 2.8 2.5

0 10 20 30 40 50

(%)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10

: /GDP

(%p)

: /GDP

(%p)

: (IMF, UN Comtrade). :

= (/GDP) (/).

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()

- , ,

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10) 2015~20 6% ( ) .

11) 3 (WTI, Dubai, Brent) 2014 105, 88, 2015 56

, 7~11 48 ( : petronet), 2016 40

2015 ( : , 2015 10, 2016 ).

2016 10

8

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2001 9.11

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() 15~30

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: 15

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).

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).: 2) .

2016 10

9

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() ,

,


2016 10

10

3%

() 2%

, 3%

- OECD 2022 2%(2.94%)

, ,

2%

() , ,

- : , , R&D

R&D

, R&D

< > < >

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2016 10

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2016 10

12

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() 2016

2%

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3%

2016

, 1/4

() 2015

, 2016

- 2015

7 12

() 2 0.3% 3 1.3%

103p 106p, BSI 69p 71p

< > < >

1.1

0.5

0.8

0.3

0.8

0.3

1.3

3.9 3.4

3.3

2.7 2.5 2.2 2.7

1

2

3

4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

'14.I II III IV '15.I II III

() ()(%) (%)

108

106 106

103 102 103

106 78

75 76 75 74 69 71

65

70

75

80

85

102

104

106

108

110

'14.I II III IV 15.I II III

()

BSI()

(p, =100) (p, =100)

: . : . : BSI .

2016 10

13

- 2015 SOC 2016

SOC

2015 1.3 26.1 12)

2015 2 0.2%p

3 0.7%p

SOC

2016 23.7 2015 26.1 9.2%

-

2016

,

< (2015.8.) >

0.4 2.5

0.6 3.1

0.0 1.1

-9.9 -9.2

-2.0 3.2

4.4 2.3 2.2

-15 -10 -5 0 5

R&D

SOC

(%)

,

30% ()

(10)

(10.19~11.1)

66 70

(10)

66 70

(10)

()

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2016 10

14

()

- : ,

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,

()

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2012 10 99.6p 100p

, 2012 10 100.5p

100p

2011 1,778 2014 1,540 238

< > < 13) >

( : )

11 12 13 14

14)

(14-11)

313 342 412 459 146

: BIS.

: 1) 2010=100 .2) 100 .

: (UN Comtrade ).

2016 10

15

- : 1.4

, 2012 2014

3.1 2.8 0.3

, 1.9 1.4 0.5

2005 11.1% 2013 15.5% ,

3.2% 4.1%

< 10 > < >16)17)

()

()12 14 12 14

-1.9 -1.4 3.1 2.8 -2.4 -1.8 1.3 1.2 -1.9 -1.5 2.2 1.9

-2.5 -1.7 3.1 2.8 -2.3 -1.7 2.7 2.5 -1.3 -0.9 3.3 2.9 4.5 4.3 5.4 4.5 -2.9 -3.3 4.1 3.7 -1.2 -1.1 3.4 2.8

-2.8 -1.8 4.0 3.6 -1.9 -1.6 4.2 4.2

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13) (2015), , 15-45, 2015.11.06.

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17) (2015), , 15-15, 2015.04.10.

2016 10

16

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2016

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2015 1~10 ( 60 ) ( 42 )

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2016 10

17

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2015 10

181.7, 189.5 177.9(), 184.6()

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1.6,

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2015 2016

6,319 7,413 2,165 6,709

1,200 2,860 700 2,700

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2016 10

18

DELAY18)

() 2016 (DELAY)

- DELAY 2016 5

() 2016 5 , (Demand) ,

(Excessive supply), (Leading sector) ,

(Asia risk) , (counter

cYclical)

- (Demand) :

2016

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,

- (Leading sector) :

, ,

, ICT

2016

18) (2015 11) 2016 5 - (DELAY)

, 15-47( 668) .

2016 10

19

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IT, , ,

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2016 10

20

() 2016

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2016

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2016 10

21

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Economy & Finance

2016년 10대 경제트렌드_HRI