Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

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Helena Chari | TNS @helena_chari

Συνέδριο ΕΣΒΕΠ 26.2.2014

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Living in a half-built house

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The press coverage

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GDP growth turns negative…for 6th consecutive year % change vs previous year

5

5.5

3.5

-0.2

-3.1

-4.9

-7.1 -6.4

-3.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

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6

-40% gross disposable income

Source: ELSTAT

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Consumer spending

7

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No one believes the economy is doing well (only 2% agree)

Source: Eurobarometer

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28% unemployment

Source: ELSTAT

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61.4% youth unemployment

Source: ELSTAT

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No one believes the employment situation is good (only 1% agrees)

Source: Eurobarometer

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17

34

49

28

39

59

30

35

48

33

4

10

12

15

20

21

23

23

32

38

Political parties

Government

Parliament

Television

The UN

The EU

Regional/Local publicauthorities

The press

Radio

Internet

20082013

Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet) ‘tend to trust’ - %

Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80

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13

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14

46

37 32

36 38

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied')

26

19 18 21 22

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Personal job situation (total 'good')

36

24 22 22 29

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Financial situation of h/h (total 'good')

How we currently see things

Source: Eurobarometer

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15

46 61 57

46 42

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Your life in general (total 'worse')

30

42 36 35

30

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Personal job situation (total 'worse')

59 67

62 57

52

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse')

What we expect in 12 months

Source: Eurobarometer

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16

79 82 81

68 70

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse')

75 78 76

62 63

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse')

We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment

Source: Eurobarometer

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Retail sales – year on year

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Retail sales – year on year

18

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Consumer confidence

19

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Consumer confidence

20

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Business confidence

21

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New orders

22

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Manufacturing PMI

23

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25

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What has been the consumer reaction?

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Need to have > Nice to have

Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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28

Consumers have spent less (vs 2012)

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Consumers have bought less (vs 2012)

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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30

Basket value

€ Frequency

€

The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012:

Basket size (volume)

Same volume Paying less Less often

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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41.6 42.1 42.7

37.5 37.8 37.7

13.9 13.7 13.4 7.0 6.4 6.2

MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13

stock up

mainstream

top up

proximity13.9 14.6 15.0

33.3 34.1 34.4

25.3 25.4 25.5

27.4 25.9 25.1

MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13

Occasions % Spend %

The evolution of shopping missions: Smaller baskets are becoming more important

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency

Smaller baskets …

2. have significant growth in packs/trip

3. are flat in spend/trip

Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13 MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13 MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13

38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Shift to cheaper options

Promotions Prices Downtrading

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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The steady march of private labels

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You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And it’s a growing trend

61.3

63.5

64.4

MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13

35

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Private Label – volume share (in units)

38.1%

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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27.4%

Private Label - value share

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Private Label value share differs widely category by category

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76

54 53 52

39 38 30

25

14

paperproducts

edible oils RTEcanned

food

frozen food alcoholicbeverages

dairyproducts

snacks detergents personalcare

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Price is an issue the

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400

500

600

700

800

900

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,50027

-Nov

-11

01-J

an-1

2

29-J

an-1

2

26-F

eb-1

2

01-A

pr-1

2

29-A

pr-1

2

27-M

ay-1

2

01-J

ul-1

2

29-J

ul-1

2

26-A

ug-1

2

30-S

ep-1

2

28-O

ct-1

2

25-N

ov-1

2

30-D

ec-1

2

27-J

an-1

3

24-F

eb-1

3

31-M

ar-1

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28-A

pr-1

3

26-M

ay-1

3

30-J

un-1

3

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Volu

me (0

00

litres) - Actu

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pen

d (

€0

00

) - A

ctu

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Spend (€000) Volume (000 litres)

Rolling ΜΑΤ

Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92%

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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…and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration

Penetration grew by 43%

Volume per trip grew by 14%

Frequency grew by 11%

Average price has declined by 14%

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Επαγγελματική Ποιότητα σε Προσιτή Τιμή

Average price/volume Shampoo total 6.63 Head&Shoulders 8.70 Ultrex 8.22 Pantene 8.16 Fructis 7.94 Timotei 5.78 Johnson’s 5.58 Syoss 4.61 Private Labels 2.87

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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How can a brand grow?

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57 55 48 48 44 37 33 31 28 27

43 45 52 52 56 63 67 69 72 73

Coca-Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline Amita Pantene Fitness Papagalos Misko

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands) …even for market leaders Loyalty in spend - %

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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What makes less of a difference is avg. weight of purchase

ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will buy in a year

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What makes more of a difference is appeal

ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has

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So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isn’t that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important?

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Well…let’s take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration

6% of brand shoppers are

100% loyal… Heavy Buyers

Medium Buyers

Light Buyers

15.8%

…and only 16% of them are heavy

buyers

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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53

46

46

43

39

30

27

Fanta

Ivi

Private Labels

Lux

Sprite

Pepsi

Epsa

Coca-Cola buyers are also buying:

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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9% of brand shoppers are

100% loyal…

…and only 20% of them are heavy

buyers

…and let’s look at another popular brand…Pantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37%

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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31 24

21 20 20

19 18 18

16 14

13 13

11

SyossHead&Shoulders

UltrexSunsilkFructisElvive

TimoteiPrivate Labels

BeerWash&GoJohnson's

Herbal EssencesGliss

Pantene buyers are also buying:

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static – the consumers underneath are moving

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…with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well)

34 31 23 20 15 15 14 12

66 69 77 80 85 85 86 88

Masoutis Sklavenitis Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market

Loyalty in spend - %

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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57

91

35

22 18 15 14 14 13

Total Masoutis Sklavenitis GrpCarrefour

AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos

Retailer frequency

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Your consumers are just

somebody else’s consumer who occasionally buy you

(this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers)

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1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014

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Greece…