Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14

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Helena Chari | TNS @helena_chari

Συνέδριο ΕΣΒΕΠ 26.2.2014

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Living in a half-built house

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The press coverage

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GDP growth turns negative…for 6th consecutive year % change vs previous year

5

5.5

3.5

-0.2

-3.1

-4.9

-7.1 -6.4

-3.8

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e

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6

-40% gross disposable income

Source: ELSTAT

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Consumer spending

7

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No one believes the economy is doing well (only 2% agree)

Source: Eurobarometer

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28% unemployment

Source: ELSTAT

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61.4% youth unemployment

Source: ELSTAT

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No one believes the employment situation is good (only 1% agrees)


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17

34

49

28

39

59

30

35

48

33

4

10

12

15

20

21

23

23

32

38

Political parties

Government

Parliament

Television

The UN

The EU

Regional/Local publicauthorities

The press

Radio

Internet

20082013

Levels of trust have hit the floor (except for the Internet) ‘tend to trust’ - %

Source: Eurobarometer 69 & 80

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14

46

37 32

36 38

Spring '11 Autumn '11 Autumn '12 Spring '13 Autumn '13

Satisfaction with life (total 'satisfied')

26

19 18 21 22


Personal job situation (total 'good')

36

24 22 22 29


Financial situation of h/h (total 'good')

How we currently see things


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15

46 61 57

46 42


Your life in general (total 'worse')

30

42 36 35

30


Personal job situation (total 'worse')

59 67

62 57

52


Financial situation of h/h (total 'worse')

What we expect in 12 months


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16

79 82 81

68 70


Employment situation in Greece (total 'worse')

75 78 76

62 63


Situation of Greek economy (total 'worse')

We also expect things to be less worse for the economy & unemployment


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Retail sales – year on year

17

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Retail sales – year on year

18

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Consumer confidence

19

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Consumer confidence

20

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Business confidence

21

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New orders

22

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Manufacturing PMI

23

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24

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25

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What has been the consumer reaction?

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Need to have > Nice to have

Growing trend of categories decreasing in penetration

Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel

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Consumers have spent less (vs 2012)


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Consumers have bought less (vs 2012)


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Basket value

€ Frequency

€

The 2013 shopping trip vs 2012:

Basket size (volume)

Same volume Paying less Less often


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41.6 42.1 42.7

37.5 37.8 37.7

13.9 13.7 13.4 7.0 6.4 6.2

MAT Nov 11 MAT Nov 12 MAT Nov 13

stock up

mainstream

top up

proximity13.9 14.6 15.0

33.3 34.1 34.4

25.3 25.4 25.5

27.4 25.9 25.1


Occasions % Spend %

The evolution of shopping missions: Smaller baskets are becoming more important


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1. are the only shopping mission maintaining frequency

Smaller baskets …

2. have significant growth in packs/trip

3. are flat in spend/trip

Frequency Packs/trip Spend/trip MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13 MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13 MAT

Nov 11 MAT

Nov 12 MAT

Nov 13

38.7 39.4 39.5 3.69 3.7 3.81 6.24 6.19 6.18


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Shift to cheaper options

Promotions Prices Downtrading


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The steady march of private labels

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You will find in every 6 out of ten baskets at least one private label product. And it’s a growing trend

61.3

63.5

64.4


35


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Private Label – volume share (in units)

38.1%


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37

27.4%

Private Label - value share


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Private Label value share differs widely category by category

38

76

54 53 52

39 38 30

25

14

paperproducts

edible oils RTEcanned

food

frozen food alcoholicbeverages

dairyproducts

snacks detergents personalcare


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Price is an issue the

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400

500

600

700

800

900

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,50027

-Nov

-11

01-J

an-1

2

29-J

an-1

2

26-F

eb-1

2

01-A

pr-1

2

29-A

pr-1

2

27-M

ay-1

2

01-J

ul-1

2

29-J

ul-1

2

26-A

ug-1

2

30-S

ep-1

2

28-O

ct-1

2

25-N

ov-1

2

30-D

ec-1

2

27-J

an-1

3

24-F

eb-1

3

31-M

ar-1

3

28-A

pr-1

3

26-M

ay-1

3

30-J

un-1

3

28-J

ul-1

3

25-A

ug-1

3

29-S

ep-1

3

27-O

ct-1

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3

Volu

me (0

00

litres) - Actu

al S

pen

d (

€0

00

) - A

ctu

al

Spend (€000) Volume (000 litres)

Rolling ΜΑΤ

Syoss has grown share of spend by 59% and share of volume by 92%


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…and the single biggest contributor to its growth in spend has been penetration

Penetration grew by 43%

Volume per trip grew by 14%

Frequency grew by 11%

Average price has declined by 14%


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Επαγγελματική Ποιότητα σε Προσιτή Τιμή

Average price/volume Shampoo total 6.63 Head&Shoulders 8.70 Ultrex 8.22 Pantene 8.16 Fructis 7.94 Timotei 5.78 Johnson’s 5.58 Syoss 4.61 Private Labels 2.87


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How can a brand grow?

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57 55 48 48 44 37 33 31 28 27

43 45 52 52 56 63 67 69 72 73

Coca-Cola Colgate Nescafe Ariel Soupline Amita Pantene Fitness Papagalos Misko

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for brands) …even for market leaders Loyalty in spend - %


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What makes less of a difference is avg. weight of purchase

ie, loyalty, or how many times/how much buyers of a brand will buy in a year

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What makes more of a difference is appeal

ie, penetration, or the number of buyers a brand has

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So, does that mean that making shoppers more loyal to my brand isn’t that important? Surely the most loyal shoppers are the most important?

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Well…let’s take Coca-Cola as an example, the leading brand in terms of penetration

6% of brand shoppers are

100% loyal… Heavy Buyers

Medium Buyers

Light Buyers

15.8%

…and only 16% of them are heavy

buyers


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53

46

46

43

39

30

27

Fanta

Ivi

Private Labels

Lux

Sprite

Pepsi

Epsa

Coca-Cola buyers are also buying:


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9% of brand shoppers are

100% loyal…

…and only 20% of them are heavy

buyers

…and let’s look at another popular brand…Pantene - with lower penetration than Coca-Cola - of 37%


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31 24

21 20 20

19 18 18

16 14

13 13

11

SyossHead&Shoulders

UltrexSunsilkFructisElvive

TimoteiPrivate Labels

BeerWash&GoJohnson's

Herbal EssencesGliss

Pantene buyers are also buying:


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Even when overall brand sales/penetration levels are static – the consumers underneath are moving

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…with, on average, 5 retailers in their repertoire

Loyalty is very hard to come by (for retailers as well)

34 31 23 20 15 15 14 12

66 69 77 80 85 85 86 88

Masoutis Sklavenitis Grp CRF AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos My Market

Loyalty in spend - %


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57

91

35

22 18 15 14 14 13

Total Masoutis Sklavenitis GrpCarrefour

AB Galaxias Lidl Veropoulos

Retailer frequency


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Your consumers are just

somebody else’s consumer who occasionally buy you

(this applies equally to light or to heavy buyers)

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1. Understand the consumer

2. Understand the shopper

3. Do not slash marketing spend

4. Loyalty is out; penetration and frequency are in

5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate

7. The market demands a low-cost offering

8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

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5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

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5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

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5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014





5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014





5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014





5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

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5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

©TNS 2014





5. Price ≠ Value

6. Innovate


8. Open innovation

9. Think technology

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Greece…

Marketing

Helena chari esvep - 26.2.14