North Georgia’s Opportunities in the

Global Economy Jennifer Zeller, Director of Research

GEORGIA POWER

COMMUNITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Who we are, how we do it, tools we use

The Global Economy

North Georgia’s Outlook

• Technology, Education, Workforce • Challenges and Opportunities

What We Do More Than 85 Years of Generating Growth

What We Do Community Development

•EMSI (Economic Modeling) •On The Map (labor & commute sheds) •Economic Impact Models (Implan) •Harvard Cluster Mapping Project •Career Builder

•Business Wise, Hoovers, Reference USA •DnB •Directory of Corporate Affiliations •CoStar Real Estate data •GPC Economic Development Industry Database

•ESRI Data/Mapping •Census/ACS/FactFinder/Trade Data •Immigration/in-migration (IRS, Moody’s) •Moody’s Data Buffet •Woods & Poole Economics

•Moody’s Economy.com •Tax Foundation •Occupational Costs (BLS/GDOL/EMSI) •RS Means Square Foot Costs •CCH| Incentives Calculator •ACCRA COLI

What We Do Why Talent is Important

* Not in top ten factors for year shown Source: Area Development Magazine, Corporate Surveys, 2005 to 2012

History of Top Location Decision Factors Survey, Corporate Decision Makers

Highway Accessibility 2 1 1 2 1 1 2 1

N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

Occupancy/Construction Costs 5 5 4 7 3 5 7 7 Energy Availability & Costs 6 7 9 4 5 3 9 10 Corporate Tax Rate 7 4 6 5 8 7 3 6 Available Buildings 8 l l l l l l l Tax Exemptions 9 8 3 3 4 10 6 8 Low Union Profile 10 10 l l 9 10T l l

What We Do Site Selection: Process of Elimination

Talent Availability or Cost Process of elimination (Barriers to success)

Regulatory Environmental (air, water, permitting) Financial

Natural disaster threats Business environment

Taxes Permitting Cost of living/cost of doing business Workforce availability

Accessibility (air, highway, rail, port) Real Estate Options

Sites/buildings Infrastructure – Telecom/Highway

Source: CBRE, Jonathan Sangster

Real GDP: 2011 (

2012: (

2013:

2014:

2015:

European Economic

Conditions/ US Debt

Regulatory Environment

Slowing Emerging Markets

Hiring / Confidence

Taxes Up, Spending

Down

U.S. Macro Confidence Still Impacting Corporations

Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Nov 2013

199

176

172

89

238

175

200

203

0 50 100 150 200 250

Apr-13

May-13

Jun-13

Jul-13

Aug-13

Sep-13

Oct-13

Nov-13

The Georgia Economy Ready for Take Off

Positive growth began in 2011(1.6%), 2.6% by 2015

Unemployment rate continues to drop over the next 5 years – down to 5.1% by 2017 – ATL

(GA-6.0%)

• Professional & Bus Serv. • Information • Leisure & Hospitality • Construction • Trade • Education and Health

Services • Finance

• Government -1.4% • Manufacturing -1.6%

• Growth in information tech / business services industries

• Construction rebounding • Continued growth of

trans equip manufacturing

• Port Harbor deepening (2017)

Economic Reality Manufacturing Weakening

Source: BLS; PNC

Economic Outlook Strong Future

Moody’s Economy.com, July 2013

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Perc

ent C

hang

e

Atlanta GA U.S.

Georgia

40,200 50,900 81,500 77,800 91,200 N/A

40,200 51,400 70,300 71,000 108,000 121,000

40,200 51,400 71,800 74,200 N/A N/A

Unemployment Rate 9.9% 9.0% 8.2% 7.5% 6.8% 6.3%

Atlanta

35,900 43,700 60,200 58,700 65,000 N/A

35,900 43,700 51,800 55,300 74,500 80,900

35,500 43,900 56,400 57,700 N/A N/A

Unemployment Rate 9.8% 8.8% 7.8% 6.7% 6.0% 5.5%

GSU

Moody’s

GSU

Moody’s

Source: Forecasts as of December 10, 2013 (Nov 2013– GSU); Moody’s Analytics- July 2013; UGA- Dec 2013) * Full employment indicates an unemployment rate under 6 %.

Improving Economy but improvement very slowly… Heading toward healthy expanding jobs forecast late 2014 (full employment* by 2016)

UGA

UGA

North Georgia Outlook Regional Employment Map

North Georgia Outlook Community Development

North Georgia Outlook Jobs & Earnings

North Georgia Outlook Unemployed by Industry

North Georgia Outlook North Region Graduates

162 (111 manufacturing)

Jobs – 18,397 Capital Investment - $2.87 billion

Jobs – 13,000 Capital Investment - $3 billion

Northwest Region A View of the Regional Economy

Northwest Region 4 Counties – Where Workers Live (Labor Shed)

Source: Bureau of the Census, On the Map 2010

Economic

Interdependence

Among Counties

57.1% Workers Live in

Region

A Regional Voice Offers Attractive Concentration

Regional

Employment:

141,000

Regional Pipeline of Talent (Universities, Technical Schools)

Regional Population Base (2012): 356,746 Source: ESRI, 2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic Modeling 2013 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, 2011

Graduate data of universities and technical colleges.

Total Value of Exports Traded Among Counties - $815 M

Net Migration Among NW Counties - Gordon

Net Migration Among NW Counties - Cobb

See the difference from

a county not so

localized!

Athens MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Athens MSA live

Athens MSA Commute Shed Where Athens MSA residents work

Dalton MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Dalton MSA live

Dalton MSA Commute Shed Where Dalton MSA residents work

Chattanooga MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Chattanooga MSA live

Chattanooga MSA Commute Shed Where Chattanooga MSA residents work

Gainesville MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Gainesville MSA live

Gainesville MSA Commute Shed Where Gainesville MSA residents work

Rome MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Rome MSA live

Rome MSA Commute Shed Where Rome MSA residents work

* Bubble size represents 2013 jobs in each

Arts,

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000 19,520

11,162

5,222 3,723

3,351 3,240

2,665 2,123 1,343 303

215 191 35 16

2013 Jobs

2020 Jobs

Change

Community Development Cherokee County Example

Community Development Cherokee County Example

Abundant Talent IT Professionals

IT Concentration by Place of Work Computer & Math Concentration by Place of Residence

(Job Postings) (Active Profiles)

Source: CareerBuilder

Supply/Demand Portal

Percentage of Persons in Poverty

Estimated U.S.: 15.9%

Estimated Georgia: 19.2%

Source: 2010 Poverty Rates, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates

(SAIPE), U. S. Bureau of the Census

Note: The lighter the color, the more

impoverished the area.

Whiteout indicates that no SAT score was available for that county Source: Georgia Department of Education, 2013 data

Source: Georgia Department of Education (2013)

• Low high school grad rate and SAT in region • Leads to workforce training issues

• Areas without access to broadband internet (DSL over phone line not acceptable) • Need fiber area to make an area competitive

• Developmental costs are disproportionate, infrastructure costs relatively high due to terrain, lack of natural gas

• Topological challenges • Lack of regionalism in many areas • Weaker labor shed concentration • Lack of available buildings

• Very strong work ethic. NW region always been manufacturing region. Generational values • Some available workforce (high UE rate) just not enough • Recent project wins (Caterpillar, Kubota, Engineered Floors) – prepared sites and ED Leadership

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