1. Enterprise Architecture Future Landscape Envisioning Foresight Strategy & Planning Future Landscape Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework v.10.0 La fortune favorise les audacieux..le changement les faveurs que le puits a prpares.

2. EA-envisionSources Strategic Enterprise Foresight Strategy & Planning EA-envision Management Framework Future Architecture Landscape Strategic Analysis Five Visions of the Future Technology Futures FrameworkFutures FrameworkThinking About the FuturePeter Bishop and Andy HinesUniversity of Houston in TexasEltville Model Five Views of the Future Future Management GroupHorizon Scanning 21 Drivers for the 21st CenturyOutsightsApplied Future Studies Infinite FuturesWendy SchultzTranshumanismNatasha Vita-More Extropy Institute, PresidentCultural Strategist Futurist Arts & Culture, FounderBrainstormingAdvanced 'KaleidoscopeBusinessballs.comBrainstorming' techniqueMassive Change The Massive Change ProjectBruce Mau Design and the InstituteWithout BoundariesForesight and Precognition The Sixth Sense Kees Van der HeijdenPrecognitionJeffry PalmerPrecognition: Sensing the FutureRita Berkowitz, Deborah S. RomaineEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 3. Futurology Organisations EA-envision Established Management Established Foresight, Planned andConsultancies with Foresight Practices Managed Futures Consultancies Booze & Co Kate Thomas & Kleyn Future Management The Boston Group Outsights AT Kearney Technology Futures Inc. (TFI) Arthur D. Little Emerging Futures and Horizon Scanning Consultancies - challengers McKinsey Monitor Core UK Roland Berger The Structure Group (TSG) Niche / Boutique Futurology Futurology Associations and InstitutesConsultancies rising stars Association of Professional; Futurists (APF) Fast Future Extropy Institute Foresight Consulting The European Futures Conference future directions GmbH The European Futures Observatory futurestudies Global Foresight Network Future Management Group Institute Without Boundaries Future Trends Shaping Tomorrow - The Foresight Network Infinite Futures The Institute for the Future Leading Futurists Strategic Foresight Network Strategic Foresight Consultancy ZUKUNFTSINSTITUT Sutherland Consulting ZUKUNFTSFORSCHUNG The Futures Group ZUKUNFTSMANAGEMENTSEA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 4. EA-envision Future Objectives It has long been recognised that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business: - Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy M&A Integration and Business Restructuring Business Planning and Forecasting Strategic Finance and Investment Business Transformation Programme Management Enterprise Architecture Enterprise Risk Management Enterprise Performance Management Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line ManagementEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 5. EA-envision Future Objectives Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks for the following subject areas Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Framework Business Planning and Forecasting Framework Business Transformation Framework Programme Management Framework Enterprise Architecture Framework Enterprise Risk Management Framework Enterprise Performance Management Framework Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Framework Social Enterprise Architecture and Triple Bottom Line Framework This paper describes an approach fpr introducing, developing and implementing such Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 6. EA-envision Future Objectives Our mission is to deliver a set of products which are free-to-use at point of distribution(starter pack) that makes managing the Future much more accessible to futurestakeholders (everyone..) This may include (but is not restricted to) some or all ofthe following: -Future Starter Pack Future Framework Introduction Advanced Methods & Techniques Basic Methods & Techniques Guidelines and Best Practice Futures Studies Future Governance Future Paradigms Principles and Policies Prediction and Futurology Approaches and Standards Strategists versus Futurists Future Toolkit Foresight Enterprise Modelling Forecasting (e.g. Aris, Computas from Metis) Horizon Scanning Visualisation Tools Risk Management (e.g. Visual Paradigm) Repository Tools Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis (e.g. Adaptive) Master Plan and Future Roadmap Planning / Simulation Tools Future Resources (e.g. PlanView, PlanningIT) Templates Statistical Analysis Monte Carlo CHAID Reference Models Analytics Goal-seeking Scenarios Collaboration, Futures Organisations, Data Mining Propensity Modelling Networking. & Knowledge ManagementEA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 7. EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework1.Strategic Enterprise Management Frameworks6. Business Strategy Development1.1 SEM Framework Design and Development 6.1 Business Innovation1.2 SEM Framework Deployment and Implementation6.2 Technology Innovation 2.Foresight Approaches and Methods6.3 Strategy Discovery2.1.Future Study Domain - Framing and Scoping6.4 Strategy Development2.2.Horizon Scanning and Delphi Oracle 6.5 Enterprise Performance Strategy2.3.Strategic Envisioning and Predictive Models 6.6 Business Transformation Strategy2.4.Possible Futures and Alternative Futures 7. Current / Future Business Models2.5.Preferred Futures and Desired Outcomes 7.1 Operational Model - Process Execution, Integration &2.6.Strategic Forecasting and Planning Orchestration, Collaboration, Workgroups & Workflow2.7.Managed Futures Implementation and Execution 7.2 Tactical Model - Analysis, Reporting and Communication 3.Foresight Tools & Techniques 7.3 Strategic Model - Command, Control and Co-ordination3.1.Trend / Extrapolation Analysis3.2.Precursor / Pattern Analysis 8. Enterprise Performance Management3.3.Scenario / Goal Analysis 8.1.Critical Success Factors3.4.Outsights 21 Drivers for the 21st Century8.2.Key Performance Indicators3.5.Game Theory / Monte Carlo Simulation 8.3.Business Metrics3.6.Boston Group Matrix / Five Forces / SWOT Analysis 9. Business Transformation3.7.Threat Assessment / Risk Management 9.1.Business Transition Planning3.8.Data Mining / Statistical Analysis 9.2.Business Process Management 4.Future Enterprise Architecture Blueprint 9.3.Business Programme Planning4.1.Business Landscape Envisioning 9.4.Business Change Management4.2.Application Landscape Envisioning4.3.Technology Landscape Envisioning 9.5.Organization Management4.4.Business Roadmap Planning9.6.Human Resource Management4.5.Application Roadmap Planning 10.Business Programme Management4.6.Technology Roadmap Planning 10.1. Benefits Realisation Strategy4.7 Business Architecture Blueprint 10.2. Communications Strategy4.7.1. Organisation Architecture Blueprint 10.3. Stakeholder Management Strategy4.7.2. Process Architecture Blueprint4.7.3. Data Architecture Blueprint 11.Enterprise Portfolio Management4.7.4. Information Architecture Blueprint11.1. Project Portfolio Management4.8.Application Architecture Blueprint 11.2. Application Portfolio Management4.9.Infrastructure Architecture Blueprint11.3. Technology Portfolio Management4.10. Architecture Visualisation, Scenarios and Simulation 12. Publish Current / Future Enterprise Architecture 5.Publish Current / Future Business Master Plan 8. EA-envision Futures Studies FrameworkFutures StudiesPolitical Ethnographic & Science & Environmental Economic Strategic Sociology andScience andDemographicTechnologyFuturesFutures Foresight Human Futures Policy FuturesFutures HorizonsHuman Identity. Science and SocietyFoundations, HistoryHistory and CultureFuturesDemographics and Philosophy ofEconomic TheoryEarth Sciences Political Science17. Outsights12. OutsightsPrediction Science and SocietyIdentityFuture Frameworks,Religion, Values andEconomic Planning Bio-Technology andParadigms, MethodsPolicy StudiesPsychographicsLife Sciences Beliefs and Strategy Medical Science & Techniques Future Strategy,Urbanisation and theSustainability and Sustainability andPhilosophy andPlanning, Governance, LawGrowth of CitiesEthnographics RenewableRenewableEthical Studies Forecasting,and Order21. Outsights Resources (1)Resources (2)Modelling & AnalysisUrbanisation Peace and ConflictShaping the Future - Nano-TechnologyCorporate Finance StudiesPsychology and Global Massive Planned and Biographicsandand Strategic Patterns of Behaviour Change1. Outsights War,Managed OutcomesArtificial Intelligence Investment Terrorism, SecurityFinancial Markets TranshumanismThreat Assessment & Information and Military Scienceand TradedThe Arts Risk ManagementCommunication InstrumentsNatasha Vita-Moore Innovation andBusinessWeapons andCommunications and EntrepreneurialAdministration CountermeasuresMedia Studies StudiesFutures CollaborationCosmology andNetworking &Space Science KnowledgeManagement 9. Futures Studies Framework Primary Futures Disciplines (27) Secondary Futures Specialties (27) Futures StudiesHistory and Analysis of Prediction Alternative FuturesCritical and Evidence-Based Thinking Future Foundations and Foresight FrameworksProbabilistic (Statistical) Prediction Planning and Strategy (foundation & advanced)Forecasting and Modelling (foundation and advanced) Ethnographic / Demographic Futures Geo-demographic Profiling and Actuarial Science Strategic ForesightThreat Assessment and Risk Management Scenario AnalysisScenario Development and Back-casting Market Analysis and Prediction Corporate Finance and Long-Term / Strategic Investment Environmental / Horizon Scanning Geography, Sociology, Demographics and Social Change Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Urban and Long-Range Infrastructure Planning Science and Technology Futures Studies Innovation and Entrepreneurship Studies Systems and Technology Trends Analysis Cross Impact and Pattern Analysis Environment, Ecology and Sustainability StudiesFuture Landscape Envisioning. Planning and Mapping Emerging Issues / Technology Trends Analysis Preferential Surveys / Polls and Market Research Knowledge Management and Decision SupportCollaboration, Facilitation Predictive Envisioning Intuition and Pre-cognition Development and Acceleration Studies Linear Systems Studies Massive Global ChangeComplex Systems, Chaos Theory, Human Impact Analysis Critical Futures and Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science Cognitive and Positive PsychologyPersonal Futures / Foresight Development Foresight, Intuition and Pre-cognition Predictive Surveys / Delphi Oracle Political Science and Policy Studies Leadership Studies, Religious Studies (Future Beliefs) Ethics of Emerging Technology StudiesSocially Responsible / Triple Bottom Line Management Sociology, Philosophy and Evolution StudiesTrans-humanism, Ethics and Values Studies Integral Studies and Future Thinking Weak Signals and Wildcards Visioning, Intuition, and Creativity Utopian and Dystopian Literature, Film & Arts Bio-Technology and Quantum Science Science Fiction and Images of the Future 10. Futures Discovery Foresight Strategy & Planning Future Landscape Advisory Consulting EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework Aprs la tempte c'est calme..plus a change, plus c'est la mme chose.Take hold of your future - or your future will take hold of you.. (Patrick Dixon - Futurewise. 2005) 11. EA-envision The Management of Uncertainty It has long been recognized that one of the most important competitive factors for any organization to master is the management of uncertainty. Uncertainty is the major intangible factor contributing towards the risk of failure in every process, at every level, in every type of business. Managing business uncertainty may involve introducing, developing and implementing strategic enterprise management frameworks for Corporate Foresight and Business Strategy Business Planning and Forecasting Business Transformation Enterprise Architecture Enterprise Risk Management Enterprise Performance Management Enterprise Governance, Reporting and ControlsEA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 12. EA-envision Futures Studies Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures . Futures studies (colloquially called quot;Futuresquot; by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is novel. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to determine the likelihood of future events and trends. Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, bets and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, futuribles (in France, the latter is also the name of the important 20th century foresight journal published only in French), and prospectiva (in Spain and Latin America). Futures studies (and one of its sub-disciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world. 13. EA-envision Foresight In Futures Studies, the term quot; Foresightquot; embraces: - Critical thinking concerning long-term policy development, Debate and consultation to create wider stakeholder participation, Shaping the future - by influencing public policy and strategic direction Foresight is being applied to strategic activities in the public as well as the private sector, and underlines the need to link every activity or project with any kind of future dimension to action today in order to make a planned, integrated future impact (shaping the future). Foresight differs from much futures research and strategic planning. It encompasses a range of approaches that combine the three components mentioned above, which may be recast as: - futures (forecasting, forward thinking, perspectives), planning (strategic analysis, priority setting), and networking (participatory, dialogic) tools and orientations. Much futures research has been academic, but Foresight programmes were designed to influence policy - often R&D policy. Much technology policy had been very elitist; Foresight attempts to go beyond the normal bounds and gather widely distributed intelligence 14. EA-envision Foresight Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning, horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, science and technology policy, and analysis of quot;critical technologies and cultural evolutionquot;. Many of the methods that are commonly associated with Foresight - Delphi surveys, scenario workshops, etc. - derive from the futures field. So does the fact that Foresight is concerned with: - The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there aresome exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight isaction-oriented (the planning link) it will rarely be oriented to perspectives beyond afew decades out (though where decisions like aircraft design, power stationconstruction or other major infrastructural decisions are concerned, then theplanning horizon may well be half a century). Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, notjust what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. OftenForesight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the wayto creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios, aspirationalfutures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output ofForesight work, with the decision about what fuure to build being left to othermechanisms. 15. EA-envision Strategic Foresight Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). Strategic Envisioning Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and are defined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled Positivism articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future willconform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desiredoutcomes will be fulfilled. Futurism assessing possible, probable and alternative futures selecting thosefutures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives forachieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis maybe achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closelyclustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes,goals and objectives. EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 16. Strategic Foresight Framework EA-envision 17. EA-envision Forecasting Forecasting is the process of estimation in unknown situations. Prediction is a similar, but more general term. Both can refer to estimation of time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data. Usage can differ between areas of application: for example in hydrology, the terms quot;forecastquot; and quot;forecastingquot; are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term quot;predictionquot; is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period. Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction. Forecasting is used in the practice of in every day business forecasting for manufacturing companies. The discipline of demand planning, also sometimes referred to as supply chain forecasting, embraces both statistical forecasting and a consensus process. Forecasting is commonly used in discussion of time-series data.EA-envision: Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 18. EA-envision Risk Management Risk management is a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - Risk Research Risk Identification Risk Prioritization Risk Assessment Risk Management Strategies Risk Planning Risk Mitigation Risk management strategies may include: - transferring the risk to another party avoiding the risk reducing the negative effect of the risk accepting part or all of the consequences of a particular risk . In an ideal risk management scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - and risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss - versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence - can often be misleading. 19. EA-envision Enterprise Risk Management Framework 20. EA-envision Global Massive Change Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian massextinction event in which 90% of all species were eliminated Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes. 21. EA-envision Sustainability Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet's climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of quot;sustainabilityquot; in reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse. The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be quot;sustainable.quot; For example, quot;sustainable agriculturequot; would develop agricultural systems to last indefinitely; quot;sustainable developmentquot; can be a development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A side discourse relates the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves. EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework 22. EA-envision Renewable Resources A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and absorption of waste products by the natural environment. Nuclear Fission supports Low Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fusion is both renewable and sustainable. Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability. Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield. Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather. Solar power is the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years. Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water. Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource. 23. Combined heat and power (CHP) What is CHP?Who is it suitable for? Combined heat and power (CHP), also CHP can be used throughout the known as co-generation, is thecommercial, industrial and public sectors. generation and exploitation of both Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly heat and power (usually in the form ofsuited to applications where there is a high electricity) from the same equipmentheat demand, such as hospitals, leisure set, in the same place, at the same centres, hotels and industrial sites with time. process heating requirements (especially chemical, brewing and paper industries). Not only does CHP enable the conversion of a high proportion of Some industrial processes which use hot otherwise waste heat to usable heat,water or steam are suited to small scale but it is very efficient because power is (