重新审视带来的投资价值 港口、公路行业 2006 年中期投资策略

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重新审视带来的投资价值 港口、公路行业 2006 年中期投资策略. 招商证券研究发展中心 文 斌 二零零六年六月. 核心观点:港口的战略投资价值 公路的防御性功能. 无论港口还是公路,由高速增长(或爆发式增长)到平稳增长的过渡依然是贯穿今年乃至今后几年的行业主要特征。业绩的惊喜不应成为未来投资的主要依据,而重新审视内在因素会展现行业本来的投资价值。 港口企业的资产整合,包括整体上市,是港口公司发展的特征之一,而 QFII 的不断增持和香港市场对大连、天津港招股的热烈回应诠释了港口内在的战略投资价值。 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 2006

  • QFII

  • 20%20%15%8500TEU

    -

  • 858527.3%37% IPO

    4.7%11% HIPO

    IPO -

  • 3382.HK

  • 2880.HK

  • EV/EBITDAROE

  • 06180TEU65%07220TEU20081/3

    31.39%060710%2250610%

    600717-

  • 51%8.16%

    QFII QFII7QFII

    600018-

  • 7.6%11.7%

    GDP

    -

  • -

    Chart4

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    19983.2251998519980.5919991.2719991.1819991.2319980.9119990.53

    19996.4519996.419991.15200012221.2320001433.851.242000747.50.9619990.732000895.320.46

    20002139.236.0520002049.855.6520001381.960.86200112221.7120011433.851.922001747.51.772000493.010.712001895.320.87

    20012142.484.02520012053.47520011394.390.59200212222.320021433.8532002747.51.552001493.011.352002895.320.79

    20022147.016.420022056.195.4520021394.390.47200312224.12520031433.855.452003747.52.7752002493.011.692003895.321.29

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    20042177.4516.120042141.7914.6520041412.741.38200512224.37520051433.854.82005747.52.552004493.014.0252005895.321.08

    20052195.114.220052194.1416.8520051418.241.19200612224.7520061433.854.622006747.753.722005493.013.752006895.321.2

    20062217.4416.920062285.8824.4520061428.741.682006493.015.75

    Sheet3

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    19932005

    2000

    199720041

    199620045

    19892006

    20032006

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    2000

    1997058

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    000429200565.520.18276.3765.820.268.669.760.082.8

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    20062005200420032002200120001999199819971996

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    2880 HK EQUITY

    177 HK EQUITY

    576 HK EQUITY

    548 HK EQUITY

    995 HK EQUITY

    107 HK EQUITY

  • 7-10

    -

  • -

  • -

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    19983.2251998519980.5919991.2719991.1819991.2319980.9119990.53

    19996.4519996.419991.15200012221.2320001433.851.242000747.50.9619990.732000895.320.46

    20002139.236.0520002049.855.6520001381.960.86200112221.7120011433.851.922001747.51.772000493.010.712001895.320.87

    20012142.484.02520012053.47520011394.390.59200212222.320021433.8532002747.51.552001493.011.352002895.320.79

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    20042177.4516.120042141.7914.6520041412.741.38200512224.37520051433.854.82005747.52.552004493.014.0252005895.321.08

    20052195.114.220052194.1416.8520051418.241.19200612224.7520061433.854.622006747.753.722005493.013.752006895.321.2

    20062217.4416.920062285.8824.4520061428.741.682006493.015.75

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    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    Sheet1

    EPSROEEPSROEEPSROE

    0.640.300.090.610.220.070.600.200.07

    600269530.5110.42630.153.09

    600020670.4913.85650.5313.23710.143.48

    000900750.446.64720.192.74

    600012G 530.167.27500.177.38530.249.76

    000429G 660.186.37660.268.60700.082.80

    600033670.3810.11670.3710.65650.4012.53

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    Sheet1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    EPSROEEPSROEEPSROE

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    600020200567.290.49313.8564.850.527713.2370.730.1443.48

    000900200675.060.446.6471.810.1872.74

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    000429G 200565.520.18276.3765.820.268.669.760.082.8

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    000916G 200650.720.227.7554.650.04351.5

    000776200440.53-0.187-20.8533.970.1513.3540.70.087.02

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    600368200171.290.198.4566.590.312.6567.110.2610.45

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    600035200464.410.189.948.970.12425.531.990.14.27

    000548200426.380.26.0530.450.13.0536.23-0.81-31.6

    20062005200420032002200120001999199819971996

    1199 HK EQUITY2217.442.192195.101.832177.452.072148.521.332147.010.82

    144 HK EQUITY

    517 HK EQUITY

    2880 HK EQUITY

    177 HK EQUITY

    576 HK EQUITY

    548 HK EQUITY

    995 HK EQUITY

    107 HK EQUITY

  • 2008

    083

    0610% 600033

  • !