日本国際経済学会関東支部 2010 年 07 月 17 日

  • Upload
    ellis

  • View
    21

  • Download
    3

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

日本国際経済学会関東支部 2010 年 07 月 17 日. グローバリゼーションとEU新加盟国の金融経済危機--中東欧地域のおける危機の諸原因とそれへの対応 田中 宏 立命館大学経済学部. 1.はじめに:EU新加盟下での中東欧の経済金融危機. その4つの背景 : 広義の経済的背景 ; 世界的な過剰資本の蓄積、過剰流動性、世界の国際収支不均衡 狭義の経済的背景 ; バブル経済、セキュリタリゼーション、金融工学的イノベーション、世界的利子率の低下 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Citation preview

  • 20100717

    *

  • *:;; EU; 2010

  • *

  • *1.3202.3.4.

  • 3

    2008.98.*

    2008.98.

  • Landesmann(2010)EUEBRD2009Source:*

    Source:

  • EU2009FDI*

  • 82008pp.102-103*

    2008pp.102-103

  • Source: Magdalena Morgese Borys, et al., p.14.*X19991

    1995-20051

    E15=100, GDP per capita in EKS PPP

    Source: Magdalena Morgese Borys, et al., p.14.

  • Sandor Ritcher, 2007, p.444*

    1510010010010046.248.950.654.433.837.940.249.436.343.245.150.940.047.149.561.442.043.044.847.844.448.550.155.951.955.856.558.860.164.966.470.667.471.073.678.2

    Sandor Ritcher, 2007, p.444

  • 3Sandor Ritcher, 2007, .437-440.

    *2001-032004-063.15.31.42.20.38.30.33.64.71055.880.41331128610.018.70.78.94.04.41.71.814.713.07.57.83.43.02.12.14.33.00.20.25.44.22.12.2

    Sandor Ritcher, 2007, .437-440.

  • 2001-032004-06Sandor Ritcher, 2007, p.443.*+* CPI*****

    ******

    Sandor Ritcher, 2007, p.443.

  • Landesmann 2010.2*

  • 2008Q22009Q2Source: Richter, 2009, p.2., Transition report 1999.*

    2-25.4-16.0(1993)-9.5(1994)-18.0-12.9(1991)-6.9(1997)-16.8-34.9(1992)-14.9(1993)-14.9-13.6(1991)-14.2(1992)-14.8-8.9(1991)-5.5(1992)-13.2-14.6(1991)-6.5(1992)-12.0-11.7(1991)-10.1(1996)-10.0-11.5(1991)-3.3(1992)-9.6-11.9(1991)-3.1(1992)-4.7-7.0(1991)+2.6(1992)

    Source: Richter, 2009, p.2., Transition report 1999.

  • CESEE2003-07

    Darvas,Z. (2009) p.6*

    Darvas,Z. (2009) p.6

  • 1985-2001*

  • 2004Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne, p.6.*

    Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne, p.6.

  • 1995-2007.2009.7*

    .2009.7

  • 200207Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,*

    Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,

  • 2007Source: Athanasios Vamvakkidis 2008, p.23

    *

    Source: Athanasios Vamvakkidis 2008, p.23

  • 2007Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.11*

    Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.11

  • 2005Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.29.*

    Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.29.

  • 2007Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.33.*

    Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,.33.

  • Source: Zsolt Darvas and Gyorgy Szapary,2008, p.22.*

  • 1997-2006IMF((2007) World Economic Outlook , p.72*

    IMF((2007) World Economic Outlook , p.72

  • Source: Global Financial Stability Report ,2008, p.27*

  • 1995-2010CESEE%)

    Darvas,Z.(2009)*

    Darvas,Z.(2009)

  • 200809: IMF(2009) April. p..13.*

    5/-12.3132-34.935.91.366.9-6.5136-44.513.11.162.0-2.889-13.116.00.813.6-6.3346-68.827.32.185.3-3.6101-5.0.214.31.465.7-6.7331-57.638.42.889.3-4.0204-41.543.22.064.0-4.6141-15.414.71.132.6-7.5127-32.547.11.355.5

    : IMF(2009) April. p..13.

  • 1992-2011 EC2010.1822010*

    92-9697-0202-0620052006200720082009201020112.04.24.34.55.86.83.5-7.81.11.82.75.96.78.510.66.2-4.72.73.6-2.82.05.76.26.36.26.0-5.00.02.72.31.24.66.36.86.12.5-4.21.62.47.08.49.410.07.2-3.6-14.10.93.8-8.86.39.010.612.210.0-4.6-18.0-3.53.3-8.34.78.07.87.89.82.8-15.0-0.63.20.64.64.23.54.01.00.6-6.30.02.84.94.44.13.66.26.85.01.72.73.31.4-0.96.24.27.96.37.3-7.10.83.5EU1.42.92.02.03.22.90.7-4.21.01.71.52.81.71.73.02.80.6-4.10.91.5

  • EU102008-092010-12*

  • EU WIIW(2010)EU80-90GDP20096%20112.5%CISEU*

  • *

  • Landesmann, M.A.(2009)*

  • EU(

    *

  • v.s.EUCsaba Laszlo(2009) chap.3 and 4.

    *

  • EUEU

    *

  • 1.2.3.4.

    *

  • (2010*

    2010

  • 2001997-20002001200620072008

    Sandor Ritcher, 2009,*

    Sandor Ritcher, 2009,

  • 2008330200

    *

  • 320081111.5Raiffeisen

    *

  • Gordon Baynai 200941420093.913indexation202557060*

  • 201046Fidesz529Varga Mihaly3.83292 7515or 161018%2010*

    2010

  • carry tradeJulia Kiraly, Judit Antal, Marton Nagy and Viktor Szabo, 2009)(Gabor Olbath)Gabor Olbath)

    *

  • 1999-2008Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009*

    Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009

  • *

  • 2007Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009

    *

    Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009

  • 2007Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009

    *

    Source: Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009

  • *

  • *

  • 1.2.3.

    4.

    *

  • U

    Source: (2009) EC(2009)177/ Brussels, 20..2.2008, COM(2009)79/3.

    *

    Source: (2009) EC(2009)177/ Brussels, 20..2.2008, COM(2009)79/3.

  • *

  • 111035

    Source: pp.14-15.

    *

    Source: pp.14-15.

  • IMF20081010standby 101/ 3

    Source: pp.14-15*

    Source: pp.14-15

  • 3,120225050042

    *

  • Source: Andras Aslund, 2009, The East European Financial Crisis , The CASE Conference, Warsaw, Nov. 20-21, 2009.pp.11-13.

    *

    Source: Andras Aslund, 2009, The East European Financial Crisis , The CASE Conference, Warsaw, Nov. 20-21, 2009.pp.11-13.

  • 1997-98benign /.sunk cost2010v.s. 19974.5%v.s. 1997*

  • 1997-98

    Source: ppp.12-13.

    *

    Source: ppp.12-13.

  • 2009.13*

  • The Emerging Markets Quarterly, December 2008,p. 92.

    *

    The Emerging Markets Quarterly, December 2008,p. 92.

  • 2500750025050020*

  • 2009200932009920103

    Source: p.18*

    Source: p.18

  • 2009-10250

    *

  • *

  • http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/2010.7.10.*

    http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/2010.7.10.

  • (mixed blessing):20094Berglof, E et.al(2009))European banking networking (Gardo, S. and Martin , R. 2010)20092009CESEEBIS

    *

  • IMF, EBRD,EU(EC),

    *

  • *

  • 2009302010420082008.96-103.20091024320091024

    *

  • 2010Business & Economic Review, 2010.04,pp.2-24.2009302010420082008.96-103.3200910242010

    *

  • Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,Five Years After:European UnionMembership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States, IMF Working Paper No.68, p.6.Julia Kiraly, Judit Antal, Marton Nagy and Viktor Szabo, 2009, Retail credit expansion and external finance in Hungary, lessons from the recent past (1998-2007), BIS @a@er No.44.Gabor Oblath 2009 The impact of the economic crisis on Hungary and policy measures taken /suggested, (presentation in WIIW Conference Panel discussion 26 March 2009)Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009. Overview , Hungarian direct investment abroad, 31 March 2009EC (2009) Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Central Bank, /SEC(2009)177/ Brussels, 20..2.2008, COM(2009)79/3.Bokros Lajnos, 2009, A Reformok kritikus tomege, Elet es Irodalom, LIII.ev., 4szam, 2009. januar 23.Julia Kiraly, Judit Antal, Marton Nagy and Viktor Szabo, 2009, Recent credit expansion and external finance in Hungary: lessons from the recent past (1998-2007)Magdalena Morgese Borys, Eva Katalin and Andrei Zlate, Real convergence and the Determinants of the EU Candidate and Potential Candidates, June 2008, ECB occational paper series No. 86, . Aslund, Anders, 2009, The East European Financial Crisis ( Draft November 12, 2009) EBRD 2009, Transition Report 2009Sandor Ritcher, 2007, The first three years in the EU a clear economic success, Statistika, 2007, No.6, pp. 437-445.Sandor Ritcher, 2009, Central European and the financial and economic crsis: can the introduction of the euro offer an easy way-out? Nov. 2009 (Draft)

    *

  • Martin ihk and Wim Fonteyne,Five Years After:European UnionMembership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States, IMF Working Paper No.68, p.6.Julia Kiraly, Judit Antal, Marton Nagy and Viktor Szabo, 2009, Retail credit expansion and external finance in Hungary, lessons from the recent past (1998-2007), BIS @a@er No.44.Gabor Oblath 2009 The impact of the economic crisis on Hungary and policy measures taken /suggested, (presentation in WIIW Conference Panel discussion 26 March 2009)Ministry for National Development and Economy, 2009. Overview , Hungarian direct investment abroad, 31 March 2009EC (2009) Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Central Bank, /SEC(2009)177/ Brussels, 20..2.2008, COM(2009)79/3.Bokros Lajnos, 2009, A Reformok kritikus tomege, Elet es Irodalom, LIII.ev., 4szam, 2009. januar 23.Julia Kiraly, Judit Antal, Marton Nagy and Viktor Szabo, 2009, Recent credit expansion and external finance in Hungary: lessons from the recent past (1998-2007)Magdalena Morgese Borys, Eva Katalin and Andrei Zlate, Real convergence and the Determinants of the EU Candidate and Potential Candidates, June 2008, ECB occational paper series No. 86, . Aslund, Anders, 2009, The East European Financial Crisis ( Draft November 12, 2009) EBRD 2009, Transition Report 2009

    *

  • Sandor Ritcher, 2007, The first three years in the EU a clear economic success, Statistika, 2007, No.6, pp. 437-445.Sandor Ritcher, 2009, Central European and the financial and economic crsis: can the introduction of the euro offer an easy way-out? Nov. 2009 (Draft)WIIW (2010) Forecast for Central, East and Southeast Europe,2010-2012.(08.07.2010)Landesmann, M.A.(2009)Twenty Years of East-West Integration: Reflection on What We Have Learned, ONB, Focus on European Economic Integration , Special Issue 2009, pp.16-26. *

  • ihk,M. and Wim Fonteyne,W. (2009 )Five Years After:European UnionMembership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States, IMF Working Paper No.68, p.6.Berglof,E.Korniyenko, Y. Plekhanov, A. and Zettelmeyer, Understanding the Crisis in emerging Europe, EBRD . 109.Gardo, S. and Martin, R. (2010) The Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis on Central, Eastern and South-eastern Europe, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No.114/June 2010.Aslund,2009 The East European Financial Crisis , The CASE Conference, Warsaw, Nov. 20-21, 2009.pp.11-13.

    *

    /dislocation20089**

    Rollover*