Путешествие в мир профессий

© Copyright RMIT 2006

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“Decisions, Decisions ….”

John Toohey PhD

Professor of Organisational Behaviour andHead, Graduate School of Business

Graduate School of Business


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Why is Decision Making important?

“Decisions are the coin of the realm in business”

Rogers, P., and Blenko, M. Who has the D?; How Clear Decision Roles Enhance Organisational Performance


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1. The context of business decision making

2. The individual in decision making

3. Effective decision making

4. Ineffective decision making

5. How does this apply to me?

What will we cover?


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Styles of Management Decision Making

Identify the decision making style …….

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1. The context of business decision making

So what will we cover?


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“.. above all else, leaders are made or broken by the quality of their decisions”

(Garvin and Roberto, Harvard Business Review, September, 2001, p 108).


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“… a discrete choice at a single point in time …”

INFORMATION OPTIONS EVALUATION OUTCOME

(Garvin and Roberto, pp 108– 116)

An “event” view of Decision Making


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“ a process … over months, weeks or years… power, politics, personal nuances and institutional history”.

EXTENDED TIME FRAME “POLITICAL” ITERATIONS

SUPPORT FOR OUTCOME

(Garvin and Roberto, pp 108– 116)

A “process” view of Decision Making


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The combination “improves the odds..”

• Multiple alternatives

• Assumption testing

• Well-defined criteria

• Dissent and debate

• Perceived fairness

Superior Decision Making is “difficult”


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The RAPID response .. (Not “lock-step” - Role based)

• R – Recommend (proposal with data)

• A – Agree (on the actual proposal)

• P – Perform (clarity of execution - roles)

• I – Input (who is consulted?)

• D – Decide (person responsible - final decision)

(Rogers and Blenko, 2005)

A Decision Making Primer


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Naturalistic Decision Making (NDR)

“.. The study of how people use experience to make decisions in field settings.”(Flin, R, et.al, 2002, Decision making Under Stress, Ashgate)

Building a model based on what has happened before:• Human factors engineering• Air crew training / Military

Models of Decision Making


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Technology-based Decision Making

“According to this argument, technology will replace much of the calculation and analysis on which decision making is based.”(Hilmer, F and Donaldson, L 1996, Management Redeemed, Free Press)

• NHS (National Health Service)• Student data base management



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Analytics based Decision Making

“Some companies have built their business on their ability to collect, analyse and act on data …”

• Analytics is central to strategy• Multiple initiatives, complex data, statistical analysis• Managed at enterprise level (not departmental)

(Davenport, T., Competing on Analytics, HBR, Jan 06)



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Cognitive Dissonance(1950’s Leon Festinger, Stanford University)

• Psychological discomfort caused by inconsistency among a person’s beliefs, attitudes and / or actions

• Discrediting logical information to reach more comfortable conclusions

• Change the weak cognition to conform to the stronger one



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2. The individual in decision making



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Stimulus and Response

Flight and Fight

Self-protect - repress

Nature – “hard wiring” – 50% to 80%?

Nurture – learned behaviours

On being human..

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“Stressors” Individual Characteristics

Symptoms of Ill

Health Disease

A Medical Model of Stress Injury

PAIN (Reported by Patient)

LESION (Observed by Physician)

MEDICAL-PSYCHIATRIC JUDGEMENT (Rendered by Physician)

1. + + Real, organic pain. Successful (somatic) diagnosis. Professionally validated pain.

2. + _ Imaginary, psychogenic pain. Unsuccessful (somatic) diagnosis. Malingering, hysterical, hypochondriasis, somatic delusions etc. Professionally invalidated pain (the patient should not have pain).

3. _ + Injury or illness without pain. Inattention to pain (accident, war). Denial of pain, unreported pain. Psychosis, schizophrenia (self mutilation). Professionally invalidated no-pain (the patient should have pain).

4. _ _ No pain, no lesion. Not of medical or psychiatric interest.

Pain, Lesion, Diagnosis

Szasz, T 1956, Pain and Pleasure, Harper


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1. EmotionsUbel, P.A., Emotions, Decisions and the Limits of Rationality. Medical Decision Making, Vol. 25, No. 1. 95-96 (2005)

2. Ethical and Moral ConstructsAquinas, Thomas. Summa Theologica, circa 1270

3. Classical Conditioning e.g. stimulus/response training (military)

4. Knowledge, previous experience http://octopus.gma.org/space1/titanic.html

Decision making is affected by…


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1. The Anchoring Trapdisproportional weight to first information

2. The Status Quo Trapbias toward maintaining current situation

3. The Sunk Cost Trapperpetuating the mistakes of the past

4. The Confirming Evidence Trap seek supporting information only

Hidden traps in decision making …


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5. The Framing Trapmisstating a problem – undermining entire D-M process

6. The Over-confidence Trapoverestimating the accuracy of forecasts

7. The Prudence Trapovercautious of estimates around uncertain events

8. The Recallability Trap giving undue weight to recent, dramatic events

Hidden traps (continued …


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3. Effective decision making



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Literature / Research Review …

• Confusing decision with desire• Selective assessment of evidence• Confusing planning with decision making• Confusing process with outcome• Misunderstanding or misinterpreting data• Unsuitable or dysfunctional culture

Effective (Functional) DecisionMaking


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Advocacy vs. Inquiry



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Advocacy

• Limit the parameters

• Limit the options

• Exclude non-supportive data

• Limit the information / variables to consider

• Limit time frames

• Take a position and “defend” not “test”



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Inquiry

• Participate as a “healthy sceptic”

• Be disinterested and objective

• Include and consider all positions (“left field”)

• Evaluate “WCS” (worst case scenarios)

• Critique process and logic

• Abandon “protocol”



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4. Ineffective decision making



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.. As easy as A, B, C

A = Activating Event

B = Beliefs

C = Consequences

Ineffective (Dysfunctional)Decision Making


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Cognitive Behaviour Therapy

(Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy)

Dr Albert Ellis

Albert Ellis Institute – New York

http://www.rebt.org/



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Something happened – unpleasant, upsetting

B = Beliefs

Perception and interpretation of this event

C = Consequences

Emotional and behavioural outcomes



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Something unpleasant happened –

They criticized my work

B = Beliefs

How I perceive / interpret the event –

It must be because I am an unworthy, incompetent

etc. person

C = Consequences

My emotional and behavioural result - I feel angry,

I feel worthless



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5. How does this apply to me?



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“Advocacy” or “Inquiry”

• How much a “healthy sceptic”?

• Disinterested, objective?

• Able to consider variable positions? (“left field”?)

• What are your “WCS” (worst case scenarios)?

• Are process and logic sound?

• Blinded by rank?

• How is my “A, B, C”?

How does this apply to me?How do I make decisions?

– Self Awareness

Documents

Путешествие в мир профессий