-
:
( )
,
21 2014 .,
-
?
(+ )
:
:
-
:
-
: , (Schedler 2002, 2006, 2009, 2013)
(Diamond 2002; Levitsky, Way 2010; Howard, Roessler 2006)
80%
-
?
-
?
( 15 ) (Levitsky, Way 2013; Hadenius, Teorell 2007; Hale 2013;
Geddes 1999)
(Hale 2013; Schedler 2006; Kuntz, Thompson 2009)
-
() - . , . . , , - . , , , , (, 23)
-
?
Credible commitment
Gandhi 2009, Beaulieu, Hyde 2009, Sottilotta 2013,
-
:
commitment
-
Factors weight
Individual Culture
Socialization Collective action experience
Economic status
Strong predictors
Postindustrial values; better psychological adjustment (Keniston
1968)
Higher Education; Humanitarian experience. Literature on
differential participation
1. Previous political protest experience
2. Minorities are organized better (Anderson & Mendes 2006,
Swader 2012, Alesina & Le Ferrara 2004);
Unclear linkage for AR
Weak predictors
Industrial values; lonely crowd (Riesman 1950)
Family and children - negative / absent link
Community volunteerism does not have any clear impact on
political mobilization (Ball 2005, Hunter and Brisbin 2000);
Greater economic inequality yields greater political inequality
(Solt 2008)
-
:
2013: , -
, , ., 2013
2013 ..
, 2013:
-
, ( )
800+ 2011-2012 . ( ) (S&S, 2013)
-
:
77.1
75.8
72.3
72.9
67.8
59.7
64.3
-
:
-
Biographical Characteristics of Anti-Government Protest
Stalwarts and
Casuals Variable Category Stalwarts Casuals
Place of Residence
Moscow 88.0 74.0
Moscow Oblast 10.9 23.0
Outside Moscow 1.1 3.0
Sector of Work
Private Sector 66.4 67.7
Government 25.3 28.8
Social 8.2 3.4
Employment Employed/Student 74.0 65.6
Unemployed 26.0 34.4
Gender
Male 65.1 57.5
Female 34.9 42.5
-
Network Participation of Anti-Government Protest Stalwarts
and
Casuals
Variable Category Stalwarts Casuals
Politicized Internet
Networks
Yes 57.1 45.7
Personal Protest
Networks
> 5 60.2 64.7
1 5 31.1 22.0
-
Goals of Anti-Government Protest Stalwarts and Casuals
Goal Response Stalwarts Casuals
Protest Goals
To End Falsification Fully Agree 56.3 40.2
Fully Disgree 0 9.9
Pass New Laws
Governing Parties
and Elections
Fully Agree 65.5 49.5
Fully Disagree .5 7.8
Russia Without
Putin
Fully Agree 68.5 46.2
Fully Disagree 4.6 13.5
-
Motivations for Protest
Defend my Interest Fully Agree 64.0 47.0
Fully Disagree 2.5 3.2
Pressure on
Politicians
for Reform
Fully Agree 62.1 47.0
Fully Disagree .5 4.6
Convey Concern to
Society
Fully Agree 55.1 36.3
Fully Disagree 2.0 2.5
Show My
Involvement
with Events
Fully Agree 57.6 57.6
Fully Disagree 3.0 3.9
It Is My Moral Duty Fully Agree 63.1 35.7
Fully Disagree 1.0 6.8
Be a Direct Observer
of Important Events
Fully Agree 36.4 24.9
Fully Disagree 7.9 5.0
-
Exploring the Impact of Cascade in the Pro-Government
Rallies
Timing of Participation
Early Mobilizer
Late Mobilizer
Constancy of
Participation
Stalwart
36
22
Casual
39
247
new participants joining in fairly equal measures over the
course of events
-
Exploring the Impact of Cascade in the Anti-Government
Rallies
Timing of Participation
Early Mobilizer Late Mobilizer
Constancy of
Participation
Stalwart
185
19
Casual
139
103
clear cascade evident in between the first and second events and
then the number of new participants declines dramatically
-
: full-time
:
-
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, , , , , , ; , , , , (, 19)
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!
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http://www.hse.ru/staff/ivsoboleva
