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计量经济学. 第 二 章 简单线性回归模型. 引子 : 中国旅游业总收入将超过 3000 亿美元吗?. 未来我国旅游需求将快速增长,根据中国政府所制定的 远景目标,到 2020 年,中国入境旅游人数将达到 2.1 亿人 次;国际旅游外汇收入 580 亿美元,国内旅游收入 2500 亿 美元。到 2020 年,中国旅游业总收入将超过 3000 亿美元, 相当于国内生产总值的 8% 至 11% 。 (来源: 《2008 年中国旅行社发展研究咨询报告 》 ) (参考现状:第一产业占 GDP 的 15% ,建筑业占 GDP 的 7% ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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*
20202.15802500202030008%11%2008 GDP15%GDP 7%3000??
*
, () YX1X2 Y= f ( X ) ? ?
* 1 : Y=f (X) Y= fX+ ()
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Chart2
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17
6
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25
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29
7
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Sheet1
XY
11010
27.143
311.617
410.66
58.89
68.1915
7215
8518
9325
1034
416
529
67
7.1710
6.1516
7.1523
8.128
4.175
8.120
10.1226
8.1630
Sheet1
X
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Sheet2
Sheet3
Chart11
4
6.8
7.5
10.1
13.6
13.2
15.6
18.7
19.2
22.5
Sheet4
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Multiple R0.9857883944
R Square0.9717787586
Adjusted R Square0.9682511034
1.0759280701
10
dfSSMSFSignificance F
1318.895030303318.895030303275.47441854380.0000001754
89.2609696971.1576212121
9328.156
Coefficientst StatP-valueLower 95%Upper 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept2.40666666670.73499879753.27438177430.01128209720.71175530424.10157802910.71175530424.1015780291
X Variable 11.96606060610.118455781916.59742204510.00000017541.69290090652.23922030561.69290090652.2392203056
RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Y
14.3727272727-0.3727272727
26.33878787880.4612121212
38.3048484848-0.8048484848
410.2709090909-0.1709090909
512.2369696972.363030303
614.203030303-1.003030303
716.1690909091-0.5690909091
818.13515151520.5648484848
920.1012121212-0.9012121212
1022.06727272730.4327272727
Sheet4
40
6.80
7.50
10.10
14.60
13.20
15.60
18.70
19.20
22.50
Y
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X Variable 1
Y
X Variable 1 Line Fit Plot
Sheet1
1423234.3727272727
26.820.2216.3387878788
37.519.7198.3048484848
410.1171710.2709090909
513.613.51512.236969697
613.212.41314.203030303
715.6111116.1690909091
818.78918.1351515152
919.27720.1012121212
1022.53522.0672727273
Sheet1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
4.3727272727
6.3387878788
8.3048484848
10.2709090909
12.236969697
14.203030303
16.1690909091
18.1351515152
20.1012121212
22.0672727273
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23
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19
17
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11
9
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142323
26.820.221
37.519.719
410.11717
512.613.515
613.212.413
715.61111
818.789
919.277
1022.535
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0
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Chart7
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10.72
10.47
10.34
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112
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310.72
410.47
510.34
610.31
710.2
810.25
910.17
1010.14
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