ПРОЯВЛЕНИЕ СОЛНЕЧНОЙ АКТИВНОСТИВ СЕЙСМИЧЕСКИХ И АТМОСФЕРНЫХ ПРОЦЕССАХ ЗЕМЛИ

Воротков М.В., Горшков В.Л., Миллер Н.О.

ГАО РАН (Пулковская обсерватория)

Эйгенсон М.С., 1954, Солнечная активность как

геотектонический фактор, Цирк. Львовской астрон. обсерв., № 28, с.13-21.

Руссо П, 1966, Землетрясения, М.: Прогресс, 247 с.

Сытинский А.Д., 1987, Связь сейсмичности Земли с солнечной активностью и атмосферными процессами, Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 100 с.

Соболев Г.А., Шестопалов И.П., Харин Е.П., 1998, Геоэфективные солнечные вспышки и сейсмическая активность Земли, Физика Земли, №7, с. 85 – 90.

0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0

0

10

20

30

N

NEICSp(N)

5.7

10.2

2.6

1.0 0.63

CPY

Increase of seismic events in XX century …

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 20000

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1910 1920 19300

5

10

15

20

25

1940 1950 19600

50

100

150

200

250

Seismic events per year 1900-1932 ( 1%) 1933-1962 ( 5%) 1963-2000 (94%)

1902 - 1935 1933-1962

… over the increase of seismic stations and equipment sensibility.

So only the “atomic age” seismic data were used.

SEISMIC DATA BASENEIC (1973-2003) 291 thousands events, Ms > 3 IRIS (1964-2003) 286 thousands events, Ms > 4

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

0

1

2

3

4

5

Ms

LgN

4 5 6 7 8 9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

LgN

Ms

NEIC

IRIS

1970 1980 1990 2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000 N M > 4.0

M > 4.3 M > 4.4 M > 4.5

The seismic intensity for various magnitudes (NEIC by SSA) versus solar activity (WN)

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0

100

200

300

400

NEIC (by SSA) N (M>3) WN (smoothed) N (M>4) N (M>4.5)

N

1. The intensity of the seismic process has low frequency variation nearly opposite to solar activity.

2. Seismic process responds to solar activity less than 10 % of intensity.

Relative frequency of the origin of seismic swarm (P) in comparison with the solar activity (WN).

The small-scale structure of the seismic events distribution is more sensitive to the solar activity.

The time variations of persistency (H by R/S) as other structural parameter of the seismic events distribution

? - Perhaps variations of the atmospheric pressure could be the intermediary between the solar activity and terrestrial seismicity

(after Сытинский А.Д., 1987 ).

Cor = 2H-1, 0< H <1, if H=0.5 => earthquake time distribution is Poisson. So the seismic event stream becomes more random with increasing

of the solar activity.

The global 4-daily surface pressure (in Pa) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data minus normal pressure (Ps)

and their low-frequency filtering (Psf) (cut off 0.2 cpy).

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600 Ps (Presure) Psf (Ps filtered)

Left - The filtering data of upper figure without linear trend in comparison with the scaled solar activity.

Right – The moving average (on 1 year interval) of the mean error (Std) of the filtering initial data of upper figure (cut off 1 cpy).

The peak values of cross-correlation and

corresponding time shifts of the atmospheric pressure

for various regions

and WN data. Ps Std Ps

max R ∆T (year

s)

max R ∆T (years)

Glob

1234567

0.14 -4.3 0.33 1.8

-0.35 -1.8 0.42 -5.0

-0.20 -1.4 -0.52 -1.5

-0.23 2.0 -0.25 4.2

0.28 4.9 -0.43 0.1

-0.37 -1.5 0.38 3.9

-0.34 -1.5 -0.10 4.0

0.26 3.7 0.39 3.9

The irregular low-frequency variations are revealed in global and regional atmospheric surface pressure as well as in the amplitudes of noisy (high-frequency) component of the baric fields. These variations are close to the sun cycle but do not give convincing arguments to consider the atmosphere as the transfer mechanism between solar activity and terrestrial seismicity.

The another way is to determine the solar conditioned global distribution of various atmospheric parameters

(sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and surface wind 72*144 = 10368 points on the globe)

Cross-correlation (CC) WN andSLP dSLP

Solar activity on the rise recession

dSLP

SLP

Cross-correlation SSN andSST dSST

There is common regions (mainly in oceans) where solar activity acts more effective.

What kind of atmospheric processes are responsible for that?

Tropical cyclons (TC) trackswww.csc.noaa.gov/hurrican_tracks

(v, λ, φ for each hours from 1980)

and dSLP

Probably solar activity acts on the cyclogenesis.

To test this assumption the research of TC evolutionin magnetic storm was made.

(see for “CATRIN” - К.Г.Иванов, 2005, К.Г.Иванов, 2005,

Геомагнетизм и Аэрономия, т. Геомагнетизм и Аэрономия, т. 46, №546, №5.).)

Ар–index (swdcwww.kugi.kyoto-u.ac.jp)

The local maximum of Ap after smoothing (ωс > 1cpd) and pulse discrimination (<30)

Dynamics of cumulative intencity of North-Atlantic and North-East Pacific TC relative to the moments of geomagnetic disturbance

(±12 days from each local max of Ар)

It is obvious that TC “avoids” geomagnetic storms in North-Atlantic and indifferent to Ap in North-East Pacific .

Cosmic IR images of cloudiness (each 6 h) and TC tracks

The distribution of all (without discrimination) standardized Ар relative to the center of TC

The time distribution of origin TC relative to the nearest maximum of Ар

North Atlantic North-East Pacific

Comparison of cyclons-day and seismicity

1970 1980 1990 2000

0

500

1000

1500

2000

N

WN

IRIS

days

Спасибоза внимание

Thank you

for your attention