運用普查追蹤資料探討農家生產力

798994798994407,196

*

()15() ()

1.(Panel Data) (Time Series) (Cross-Section) Hsaio(19862003) Kalton et al., (1989)Baltagi(2001) Heteroscedasticity(Bias)Serial CorrelationPanel Data

2.k(X1,X2,,Xk)3. (chi-squre) *

4.general linear model Littell et al., 2002

*

1.8(94)

Chart8

637700.1566076288

1791290.4399085453

1449110.3558753033

170170.0417906856

23690.0058178371

79

()

()(%)

a.3

b.3

%

a.798994/

b.3

*MEAN

79

()

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

()(%)

()(%)

(%)

a.-->()63-->3

b.""

79

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

a.798994

b.

(11)

94

79&8994

6377015.66%13583117.60%

6375615.66%6377015.66%17912943.99%31170240.40%

17913843.99%17912943.99%14491135.59%28301436.68%

14491835.59%14491135.59%170174.18%367694.77%

170154.18%170174.18%23690.58%42630.55%

23690.58%23690.58%

407196407196

79~8979~94

79899479897994798994

15.26%16.64%17.60%

13180115.26%12060116.64%13583117.60%7890078901637566377043.56%42.45%40.40%

37618543.56%30764542.45%31170240.40%22450522450417913817912935.52%35.39%36.68%

30679535.52%25647135.39%28301436.68%1771591771591449181449115.21%5.03%4.77%

449915.21%364445.03%367694.77%219592195917015170170.45%0.48%0.55%

38620.45%34840.48%42630.55%3048304823692369100.00%

863634100.00%724645771579505571505571407196407196

7979~89(79)79~94(79)79()79~89(89)79~94(94)79~897979~9479

()(%)()(%)()(%)

13180115.26%7890015.61%6375615.66%131801789016377059.86%48.38%-11.48%

37618543.56%22450544.41%17913843.99%37618522450417912959.68%47.62%-12.06%

30679535.52%17715935.04%14491835.59%30679517715914491157.75%47.23%-10.51%

449915.21%219594.34%170154.18%44991219591701748.81%37.82%-10.98%

38620.45%30480.60%23690.58%38623048236978.92%61.34%-17.58%

86363450557140719686363450557140719658.54%47.15%-11.39%

7979~89(89)79~94(94)

()(%)()(%)()(%)

13180115.26%7890115.61%6377015.66%14

37618543.56%22450444.41%17912943.99%-9

30679535.52%17715935.04%14491135.59%-7

449915.21%219594.34%170174.18%2

38620.45%30480.60%23690.58%0

863634505571407196

7989(94)79899479~89(79)79~89(89)(79~89)/7979~89~94(79)(89~94)/89

33283327-13332572915743671549.62%4509450961.84%332757.93%

1781780179146042078822.72%26226256.96%17842.38%

24312430-12431147484689505448.10%2963296262.41%243051.82%

10424104251104361125093205582738038.12%135301353153.92%1042550.71%

1346113461013459-225590270372814347.82%163171631763.76%1346149.79%

2016620165-120163-240604372834144348.65%246102460960.61%2016554.09%

1376813770213770028015248712630852.34%167091671159.64%1377055.37%

3199320123200-164835404746042.90%39102869760.31%320159.23%

2358723587023581-646775403073814961.81%286973876261.35%2358758.52%

3053530533-230539666263542525704153.54%387646831058.50%3053356.28%

5397153968-353967-1110128898518930360.43%683143300162.03%5396860.06%

2580225802025796-655731454644595356.14%330015182259.21%2580256.75%

4204442047342046-190805723677379656.98%51819391257.07%4204758.10%

21152112-32114266025116810526.08%2966296144.93%211241.28%

18891886-31886041453475469440.18%2344234056.55%188654.27%

38873882-53885397416458861045.12%5132512452.68%388260.11%

3526835271335273262154562795707761.80%415474155166.85%3527162.67%

4336143366543355-1189905776898286652.32%520435205157.89%4336655.82%

2554425546225550460269480985298948.22%326653266954.20%2554653.11%

3163231633131627-669704562496212750.91%388903889155.79%3163356.24%

1222122201221-142753107654618.65%1572157236.77%122239.33%

7721772107722122050171991774543.52%102131021346.32%772144.89%

9294929409295122941192451902448.86%117461174651.20%929448.29%

2319231902319037313379418655.40%2976297679.76%231968.63%

505005001311057764.94%727254.96%5047.62%

771579505571407196

(11)

729157436715

460420788

474846895054

250932055827380

255902703728143

406043728341443

280152487126308

648354047460

467754030738149

662635425257041

1101288985189303

557314546445953

908057236773796

660251168105

414534754694

974164588610

621545627957077

899057768982866

602694809852989

697045624962127

427531076546

220501719917745

229411924519024

373133794186

13110577

79

89

94

1

MEAN(2)

72915743671533321

460420788179

4748468950542431

25093205582738010436

25590270372814313459

40604372834144320163

28015248712630813770

6483540474603200

46775403073814923581

66263542525704130539

110128898518930353967

55731454644595325796

90805723677379642046

6602511681052114

4145347546941886

9741645886103885

62154562795707735273

89905776898286643355

60269480985298925550

69704562496212731627

4275310765461221

2205017199177457722

2294119245190249295

3731337941862319

1311057750

&A

Page &P

79

89

94

(94)

2

94

79

89

94

(2)

(3)

(4)

100

()()

863,634505,57158.54407,19647.15-11.39

131,80178,90159.8663,77048.38-11.48

376,185224,50459.68179,12947.62-12.06

306,795177,15957.75144,91147.23-10.51

44,99121,95948.8117,01737.82-10.98

3,8623,04878.922,36961.34-17.58

94

()(%)()(%)

407,196100.00

63,77015.66144,91135.59

3,3320.822,1140.52

1790.041,8860.46

2,4310.603,8850.95

10,4362.5635,2738.66

13,4593.3143,35510.65

20,1634.9525,5506.27

13,7703.3831,6277.77

179,12943.991,2210.30

3,2000.7917,0174.18

23,5815.797,7221.90

30,5397.509,2952.28

53,96713.252,3690.58

25,7966.342,3190.57

42,04610.33500.01

100

798994

863,634100.00724,645100.00771,579100.00

131,80115.26120,60116.64135,83117.60

376,18543.56307,64542.45311,70240.40

306,79535.52256,47135.39283,01436.68

44,9915.2136,4445.0336,7694.77

3,8620.453,4840.484,2630.55

4

TheMEANSProcedure

---------------------------------------------------

VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum79

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------77.301588.6180.3575187667

B120.4844669199.77041364071969138310.8755288.94%84.54

L388.6135301122.1812341407196990002.512332.7776.18

P150.233420811.419823640719698151.017531.13

P26.53372583.3039256407196160

W12.77166521.5694619407196360

W21.12641581.011694640719636089

LL10.88942350.27858694071961079.434786.00

LL20.09282070.2589362407196100.8842289.31%

XX4232.7062923276.4240719670000902.353152.51

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------1.245251.34

YEAR=89----------------------------------------------------94

71.7917779.00

VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum0.7394511471.49%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3.683767963.81

B123.175669778.2371651407196500000.834740190.93

L386.0016208114.2721024407196139800197142231756.70

P160.150917511.40532454071969916

P26.3473613.3972779407196160

W12.51283411.3783117407196230798994

W21.34020720.9132913407196230-77.3079.4371.79

LL10.89305720.26773214058371088.6186.0079.00

LL20.08173240.242903740583710-87.5588.4273.9587.55%88.42%73.95%

XX4302.87425064288.42407196736659.3088.9489.3171.4988.94%89.31%71.49%

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------2.772.513.81

1.131.340.93

YEAR=94----------------------------------------------------

VariableMeanStdNMaximumMinimum

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

B119.540319686.388717840719650000

L379.0019917109.5153883407196100100

P162.879581311.71728714071969916

P26.70971473.5492187407196160

W13.81447261.8462602407196201

W20.93418650.8799964407196120

LL10.71490680.389514940719610

LL20.06765480.220643740719610

XX4395.54395667268.394071961116655.50

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4

00

00

00

-

-

-

-

%

()77.3088.6179.4386.0071.7979.00

(%)87.5588.9488.4289.3173.9571.49

()2.512.772.352.513.683.81

()1.021.131.251.340.830.93

TheSASSystemreserved-39787x1f0.3835

__

TF

YYRSS

OEPEssSSSSSSSSSSEE

bAEQwwEEEEEEEEEE11

sR__12012345678901

179040719611286114586724448557171643437800054644276861384348562342305247765

2890407196102321654572710789772021402611053324143319142775429921277493243278

39404071961553238380397.305498606371117866776122840439171859289205512531341

SS

OSSSSSSSSSSFFSSSSSS

bFFFFFFFFFF11GGGGAA

s012345678901123412

111984215129911262416518495410494587314132701364351415748637234156236559918055

2670091715421445251550061861414661203842722234310118086634833966138060912615

314257017069777800117413430674229381051112516325831583725036536718028156

MMMM

OSSMMMMMMMMMMMMEEMMMMMMMMMMFFMMMMMMMM

bAAwwEEEEEEEEEE11FFFFFFFFFF11GGGGAAAA

s341201234567890101234567890112341234

111374121682.771671.1264211111111111111111111111111111111

2546385092.512831.3402111111111111111111111111111111111

3739111213.814470.93419.1111111111111111111111111111111


YEARSE1SE2SE3SE4SE5SE6SE7SE8SE9SE10SE11

12345678910>10

79557171643437800054644276861384348562342305247765402748

89772021402611053324143319142775429921277493243278396407

94305498606371117866776122840439171859289205512531341407196

YEARSF1SF2SF3SF4SF5SF6SF7SF8SF9SF10SF11

12345678910>10

791512991126241651849541049458731413270136287354

89171542144525155006186141466120384272223340187

94170697778001174134306742293810511264626

SG1SG2SG3SG4

7943514157486372341562407196

8943101180866348339661407196

94125163258315837250365407196

YEARSA1SA2SA3SA4

79365599180551137412168407196

893806091261554638509407196

943671802815673911121407196


012345678910>10

794448557171643437800054644276861384348562342305247765407196

8910789772021402611053324143319142775429921277493243278407196

940305498606371117866776122840439171859289205512531341407196

0.13683091190.40359679370.19155394450.13419581720.0679918270.03399591350.0119254610.005751530.0007490250.00060658750.0018787021

0.18959420030.34445574120.25867641140.10175198180.04700930260.01904242670.00734781280.00313608190.00121071920.00059676420.0006827179

0.07502283910.21135521960.17465053680.2128630930.15036493480.0993108970.04220326330.02281211010.00504670970.00307714220.0032932544

012345678910>10

791198421512991126241651849541049458731413270136407196

38376513605523431

8967009171542144525155006186141466120384272223407196

38307616864524120

94142570170697778001174134306742293810511407196

9392916129

YEARSG1SG2SG3SG4

7943514157486372341562

8943101180866348339661

94125163258315837250365

YEARSA1SA2SA3SA4

79365599180551137412168

893806091261554638509

943671802815673911121

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

79

89

94

()

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

79

89

94

()

798994

()52.3750.23-2.14()58.5860.151.57()61.1562.881.73

(%)89.5393.73%(%)85.5687.81%(%)82.886.16%

(%)10.476.27%(%)14.4412.19%(%)17.213.84%

(%)15.6311.44%(%)13.2713.96%(%)11.2912.49%

(%)61.5563.20%(%)55.8460.61%(%)52.2557.69%

()(%)12.2913.19%()(%)15.9313.93%()(%)16.6615.02%

()(%)8.629.80%()(%)12.189.55%()(%)15.1111.79%

(%)1.912.37%(%)2.781.94%(%)4.693.01%

35919988.21%

CHANGE372609.15%

UNKNOWN107372.64%

407196

ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_()()()()()()()()()

1790407,19646,599257,33753,72139,9079,632381,64725,549

2890407,19656,864246,80056,74038,8787,914357,57149,625

3940407,19650,853234,89961,17548,02612,243350,82056,376

(%)(%)()(%)()(%)(%)(%)(%)

11.44%63.20%13.19%9.80%2.37%93.73%6.27%

13.96%60.61%13.93%9.55%1.94%87.81%12.19%

12.49%57.69%15.02%11.79%3.01%86.16%13.84%

798994

52.3758.5861.15

50.2360.1562.88

7989.5393.73

10.476.27

8985.5687.81

14.4412.19

9482.886.16

17.213.84

>>

1.

2.

798994

161311

141412

625652

616158

()121617

()141415

()91215

()101012

235

223

0000000000

0000000000

0000000000

()

()

()

()

%

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

%

798994

(%)13.21%11.81%(%)17.92%18.35%(%)21.67%22.93%

3.23%8.135%10.649%

9.98%9.786%11.025%

(%)17.32%19.77%(%)8.97%9.86%(%)6.40%7.32%

(%)69.47%68.42%(%)73.11%71.79%(%)71.93%69.75%

(%)45.76%48.54%2.78%(%)43.80%45.39%1.59%(%)43.35%46.43%3.08%

(%)7.08%7.10%0.02%(%)3.65%3.63%-0.03%(%)4.53%4.57%0.03%

(%)9.13%8.91%-0.21%(%)10.34%10.53%0.19%(%)4.26%4.21%-0.05%

(%)10.31%10.40%0.09%(%)13.95%14.04%0.09%(%)14.75%13.86%-0.89%

(%)17.45%16.69%-0.76%(%)18.90%18.59%-0.31%(%)23.41%23.26%-0.15%

(%)0.17%0.19%0.01%(%)0.11%0.12%0.00%(%)0.13%0.13%0.00%

(%)3.90%3.45%-0.45%(%)1.20%1.15%-0.05%(%)0.36%0.35%-0.01%

(%)0.56%0.54%-0.03%(%)0.88%0.77%-0.11%(%)0.85%0.75%-0.10%

(%)0.42%0.37%-0.05%(%)0.64%0.63%-0.01%(%)0.79%0.75%-0.04%

(%)3.32%2.72%-0.60%(%)2.39%2.06%-0.33%(%)2.00%1.83%-0.17%

(%)1.90%1.09%-0.81%(%)4.13%3.10%-1.03%(%)5.58%3.88%-1.70%

a.798994100

b.798994

(%)13.18744969617.920912998821.6737365843

ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_()()()(%)11.812738828518.348903230922.9321997269

(%)17.29423614638.97404936216.3999927422

17904071964810180485278610(%)19.76566567459.8618355787.3190797552

28904071967471640157292323(%)69.518314157773.105037639171.9262706735

39404071969337929803284014(%)68.42159549771.789261191269.7487205179

13.19%17.92%21.67%

100.00%11.81%19.77%68.42%11.81%18.35%22.93%

100.00%18.35%9.86%71.79%17.29%8.97%6.40%

100.00%22.93%7.32%69.75%19.77%9.86%7.32%

69.52%73.11%71.93%

()()()68.42%71.79%69.75%

7940719660084209380485278610

89407196336904102640157292323

94407196451464823329803284014123182

9415,7662,1817720128132953

9451,4378,36239192273892912508

339,9930.02589170820.01152025070.000557471112.55%

0.01475456540.10337282290.19765665670.68421595530.10%

0.08273656910.10075246320.09861835580.717892611919.94%

0.11087044080.11845155650.07319079760.697487205219.16%

(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)

ObsYEAR_TYPE__FREQ_SE1SE2SE3SE4SE5SE6SE7SE8SE9SE10SE11

1790407196197667288963629442364679737581404021821506110684448

289040719618480814772428685717675708479468331342568837912621

394040719618906318591171515643294702519140630493047745215784

(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)(%)

48.54%7.10%8.91%10.40%16.69%0.19%3.45%0.54%0.37%2.72%1.09%

45.39%3.63%10.53%14.04%18.59%0.12%1.15%0.77%0.63%2.06%3.10%

46.43%4.57%4.21%13.86%23.26%0.13%0.35%0.75%0.75%1.83%3.88%

000000

000000

000000

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

(%)

%

798994

13.2111.8117.9218.3521.670.0022.930.01475456540.08273656910.1108704408

3.231.488.148.2710.6511.090.10337282290.10075246320.1184515565

9.9810.349.7910.0811.0311.850.19765665670.09861835580.0731907976

86.7988.1982.0881.6578.330.0077.070.6842159550.71789261190.6974872052

17.3219.778.979.866.407.32

69.4768.4273.1171.7971.9369.751.47545653698.273656912211.0870440771

10.337282291610.075246318711.8451556499

45.7648.5443.8045.3943.3546.4319.76566567459.8618355787.3190797552

7.087.103.653.634.534.5768.42159549771.789261191269.7487205179

9.138.9110.3410.534.264.21

10.3110.4013.9514.0414.7513.862.801.171.73

17.4516.6918.9018.5923.4123.26

0.170.190.110.120.130.13

3.903.451.201.150.360.35

0.560.540.880.770.850.75

0.420.370.640.630.790.75

3.322.722.392.062.001.83

1.901.094.133.105.583.88

76.5778.1373.76

98.6289.6988.09

105.21102.0589.68

98.1784.7372.57

112.23103.0996.11

76.5581.2574.36

81.9985.6288.64

71.6479.875.95

55.1580.7783.99

72.9278.470.54

2.

79

89

94

()

18.69

20.48

22.97

23.18

18.62

19.54

()

77.30

88.61

79.43

86.00

71.79

79.00

(%)

87.55

88.94

88.42

89.31

73.95

71.49

()

1.02

1.13

1.25

1.34

0.83

0.93

()

2.51

2.77

2.35

2.51

2.03

3.81

4. 27.3017.0330.1119.9419.1718.76

79

89

94

13.21

11.81

17.92

18.35

21.67

22.93

(%)

3.23

1.48

8.14

8.27

10.65

11.09

(%)

9.98

10.34

9.79

10.08

11.03

11.85

86.79

88.19

82.08

81.65

78.33

77.07

(%)

17.32

19.77

8.97

9.86

6.40

7.32

(%)

69.47

68.42

73.11

71.79

71.93

69.75

(1)1565

(2)100%

79

89

94

13.21

11.81

17.92

18.35

21.67

22.93

(%)

3.23

1.48

8.14

8.27

10.65

11.09

(%)

9.98

10.34

9.79

10.08

11.03

11.85

86.79

88.19

82.08

81.65

78.33

77.07

(%)

17.32

19.77

8.97

9.86

6.40

7.32

(%)

69.47

68.42

73.11

71.79

71.93

69.75

(1)1565

(2)100%

5. 8994

79

89

94

10.9549

12.8516

12.8793

14.2344

8.7836

10.0946

11.6927

14.0848

10.6671

12.1111

10.1924

12.2936

22.6727

27.0460

20.8949

22.4437

17.7040

19.5337

17.6511

20.0511

20.3211

22.3701

15.6096

18.2459

19.9754

22.3433

25.6187

26.7754

21.4748

23.5634

71.4460

73.2177

150.8027

137.1879

142.2293

139.7755

10.3429

12.2303

12.7259

13.8668

15.1841

16.1166

39.8953

41.6393

52.5025

46.7085

57.2806

52.6797

23.4843

27.1321

21.7989

25.1462

25.9372

30.0245

138.8937

151.8516

258.5370

232.2823

267.0584

247.6500

75.89%() WP = 0.3459 Prin1 + 0.2215 Prin2 + 0.1361 Prin3 + 0.1085 Prin4 + 0.0960 Prin5 + 0.0920 Prin6

100%

34.4028

1

99%

1.3257

3,400

95%

0.8144

17,000

90%

0.6028

33,999

75%

0.2377

84,998

50%

-0.0826

169,997

25%

-0.3074

254,995

10%

-0.4801

305,994

5%

-0.5855

322,993

1%

-0.7859

336,593

0%

-1.2070

339,993

()407,196 84,998 ()79.00 149.26 ()62.88 59.93 ()6.65 7.35 ()101.59 225.61 ()3.81 4.55 ()0.93 1.99 60(%)0.28 0.56 ()179.39 460.19 ()19.85 63.80 ()19.43 62.05 ()0.34 1.40 ()0.08 0.35 (/)25.12 42.75 (/)21.25 32.05 (/)1106.45 1386.41

() SAS-2 REMLAkaikesAICSchwarzsBIC Y1= 5.6023 + 0.0772 X1*1.4388 X2* + 0.0001 X3 + 0.2643 X4* (0.0007) (0.3243) (0.0092) (0.0350) Y2= 0.1736 + 0.0192 X2* + 0.0000 X3 + 0.0000 X40.0010 X5 + 0.0080 X6* (0.0039) (0.0001) (0.0004) (0.0007) (0.0011) *95%

() (x2=64907Pr>ChiSq=

151. 2. 89943. ()4.

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運用普查追蹤資料探討 農家生產力

運用普查追蹤資料探討農家生產力