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الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

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Page 1: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Finance & Development, June 2009 - Arabic $8.00

www.imf.org/fandd

Page 2: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

English edition ISSN 0015-1947

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Washington, DC, 20431, USATelephone: (202) 623-7430Facsimile: (202) 623-7201

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Finance & Development, International Monetary Fund, Washington,

DC, 20431 USA.Telephone: (202) 623-8300Facsimile: (202) 623-6149

Website: http://www.imf.org/fandd

Page 3: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 4: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

www.imf.org/external/np/sta/wgsd/index.htm.

Page 5: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 6: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Glenn Gottselig interviews Oxford economist Paul Collier

Page 7: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 8: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 9: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 10: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Marek Belka

Page 11: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 12: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

– – –

Page 13: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 14: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Martin Cihák and Srobona Mitra

Page 15: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 16: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European

Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member

States,” IMF Working Paper 0968/ (Washington: International Monetary

Fund).

Page 17: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Erik Berglöf, Alexander Plekhanov, and Alan Rousso

Page 18: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 19: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

–––––––

Page 20: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 21: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Barry Eichengreen

(sovereign spreads, in basis points)

Page 22: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

www.intrade.com

Page 23: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

N

Eichengreen, Barry, 2007, “The Break-Up of the Euro Area,” NBER

Working Paper 13393 (September).

Hallerberg, Mark, and Guntram B. Wolff, 2006, “Fiscal Institutions,

Fiscal Policy and Sovereign Risk Premia,” Discussion Paper 35/2006,

Deutsche Bundesbank (Frankfurt).

Nitsch, Volker, 2004, “Have a Break, Have a ... National Currency:

When Do Currency Unions Fall Apart?” CESifo Working Paper 1113

(January).

Page 24: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Charles Wyplosz

Page 25: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 26: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Baldwin, Richard, and Charles Wyplosz, 2009, The Economics of

European Integration, McGraw-Hill.

Begg, David, Paul de Grauwe, Francesco Giavazzi, Harald Uhlig,

and Charles Wyplosz, 1998,“The ECB: Safe at Any Speed?” Monitoring

the European Central Bank (London: Centre for Economic Policy

Research).

Page 27: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

M. Ayhan Kose, Prakash Loungani, and Marco E. Terrones

Page 28: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

(PPP)

Page 29: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

– – – –

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Page 30: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

International Monetary Fund, 2009, World Economic Outlook

(Washington, April).

Page 31: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

John Lipsky

Page 32: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

– – – – – t

Page 33: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Page 34: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Page 35: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Page 36: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Giovanni Dell’Ariccia

Page 37: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

• •

• •

Page 38: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Enoch Charles, and I. Ötker-Robe, 2007, Rapid Credit Growth

in Central and Eastern Europe (Washington: International Monetary

Fund).

IMF, 2009, “Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Future Regulation

of Financial Institutions and Markets and for Liquidity Management,”

(Washington); see http://www.imf.org/external/pp/longres.

aspx?id=4316

Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, and John Moore, 1997, “Credit Cycles,” Journal

of Political Economy, Vol. 105, No. 2, pp. 211–248.

Repullo, Rafael, Jesús Saurina, and Carlos Trucharte, 2009,

“Mitigating the Procyclicality of Basel II”; see ftp://ftp.cemfi.es/pdf/

papers/repullo/RST_G20_ebook.pdf

Annual Meetings Program of Seminars

IMF—World Bank GroupWashington, D.C. 20431 U.S.A.

Telephone: [1](202) 473-3394 Facsimile: [1](202) 623-4004Email: [email protected]: www.worldbank.org/pos

Page 39: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Olivier Blanchard's view of the underlying causes of the crisis

Page 40: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

IMF, Global Financial Stability Report and World Economic Outlook (November update .and estimates); and World Federation of Exchanges. Estimates as of November 2008

Page 41: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Blanchard, Olivier, 2008, The Crisis: Basic Mechanisms and

Appropriate Policies (Munich: Center for Economic Studies).

Page 42: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Randall Dodd

(KIKO) (TARN) AccumulatorSnowball

Page 43: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Page 44: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

PROGRAM IN ECONOMIC POLICY MANAGEMENT (PEPM)

Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs’ Program in Economic Policy Management offers an intensive 14-month program leading to a Master of Public Administration. The program provides rigorous graduate training in micro- and macroeconomics, management, finance and development policy, with a strong emphasis on the policy issues faced by devel-oping countries. The program concludes with a three-month

internship at the World Bank, International Monetary Fund or other public or private sector institutions.

Students may also pursue a focus in International Energy Manage-ment and Policy, administered in cooperation with SIPA’s Center for Energy, Marine Transporta-tion and Public Policy, to pre-pare for work in the businesses, markets

and governance structures in-volved in producing, transporting and marketing energy products.

The program also features a tailored lecture and workshop series, ranging from effective inflation targeting to understand-ing financial crises.

The progran begins annually in early July. Applications are due the preceding January.

[email protected] | 212-854-6982; 212-854-5935 (fax) | www.sipa.columbia.edu/academics/degree_programs/pepm

To learn more about SIPA, please visit:

www.sipa.columbia.edu

Page 45: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Suhas Ketkar and Dilip Ratha

Page 46: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Page 47: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Chalk, Nigel A., 2002, “The Potential Role for Securitizing Public

Sector Revenue Flows: An Application to the Philippines,” IMF Working

Paper 02106/ (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Costa, Alejo, Marcos Chamon, and Luca Antonio Ricci, 2008, “Is

There a Novelty Premium on New Financial Instruments? The Argentine

Experience with GDP-Indexed Warrants,” IMF Working Paper 08109/

(Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Ramachandran, Vijaya, Alan Gelb, and Manju Kedia Shah, 2009,

Africa’s Private Sector: What’s Wrong with the Business Environment and

What to Do About It? (Washington: Center for Global Development).

BBBAA

AA A A–AA– AA+ BBB+ CCC+BB+ B+BB–BB B–BBBBBBB-

Page 48: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Herman Kamil, Bennett W. Sutton, and Chris Walker

Page 49: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

– –

International Monetary Fund, 2008,

“Corporate Vulnerability: Have Firms Reduced Their Exposure to Currency Risk?” Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere, Chapter 5, (Washington, October).

Page 50: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Nicolás Eyzaguirre, Benedict Clements, and Jorge Canales-Kriljenko

Page 51: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Kumhof, Michael, and Douglas Laxton, 2007, “A Party Without a

Hangover? On the Effects of U.S. Government Deficits,” IMF Working Paper 07202/ (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Spilimbergo, Antonio, Steve Symansky, Olivier Blanchard, and Carlo Cottarelli, 2008, “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis,” IMF Staff Position Note 0801/, December (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Page 52: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

S. Raihan Zamil

Page 53: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

• –

Page 54: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

IGNX GD

Mark Horton and Asmaa El-Ganainy

Page 55: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

Daniel, James, Jeffrey Davis, Manal Fouad, and Caroline Van

Rijckeghem, 2006, “Fiscal Adjustment for Stability and Growth,” IMF Pamphlet 55 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Heller, Peter S., 2005, “Understanding Fiscal Space,” IMF Policy Discussion Paper 054/ (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

International Monetary Fund, 2008, “Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical Tool,” World Economic Outlook, Chapter 5 (Washington, October).

International Monetary Fund, 2009, “The State of Public Finances: Outlook and Medium-Term Policies After the 2008 Crisis” (Washington); available at www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2009030609/.pdf

Spilimbergo, Antonio, Steve Symansky, Olivier Blanchard, and Carlo Cottarelli, 2008, “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis,” IMF Staff Position Note 0801/ (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

Page 56: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 57: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”
Page 58: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

www.imf.org/external/np/res/commod/index.asp

Page 59: الطريق إلى الانتعاش · Cihák, Martin, and Wim Fonteyne, 2009, “Five Years After: European ˇ Union Membership and Macro-Financial Stability in the New Member States,”

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www.imfbookstore.org