Upload
taryn
View
65
Download
1
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
經濟部能源局 97 年度「能源發展綱領政策環境影響評估及說明書檢討」委辦計畫. 能源發展綱領政策環境影響評估 暨能源供給效率規劃 NGO 溝通說明會. 簡報資料. 財團法人台灣綜合研究院. 97 年 10 月 29 日. 簡報大綱. 壹、國內外能源與溫室氣體情勢 貳、我國永續能源政策綱領 参、能源發展綱領政策環評規劃 肆、能源發展綱領規劃修正 伍、政策選項衝擊評估結果 陸、政策選項優選程序與問卷說明. 壹、國內外能源與溫室氣體情勢. 一 、 國際情勢. ( 一 ) 全球溫室氣體排放量持續成長. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
NGO97102997
IEA(2007)203084203068WRI(2007)2025GHG Global distribution of large stationary sources of CO2() IEA(2007)World Energy Outlook
()BP(2007) statistical review of world energy 1.2.
(2006)
12,082
181
9,091
(2006)
298
2.9
62.0
41
63
147
2006()200720082009COP 12 COP 13COP 14 COP 15G8 G8 (AWG-KP)3.9 (Bali Action Plan)AWG-LCA(2008) 13( Bali Action Plan)20092012 83200915G8205050% 2008.0320082009 20082008.061. 2.()3.2008.081.(REDD)(Sectoral Approach) 2.
99.2% 8.65%2007147.2491.6 % ()147.24(2008), 96
2007243, 180()40.1%20060.637CO2e/
()20051CO2e/21.IEA(2007), CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Highlights 1971-2005(2007 Edition) 2.(2008), 97,27.9%11.3% ()11.4%10.0%39.0%20072007 ()5.01%18.4%16.7%6.2%53.6%243,1804,572.0(2008), 96
0.4290.4180.5760.0870.841
20050.63220060.63820070.637
1990CO211,050200626,527200616,40961.86%5,26819.86%3,71314%2250.85%5221.97%20052216CO2(2007)()()- IEA(2007), CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion Highlights 1971-2005.
1.GDP
billion 2000$
355.53
16
2.CO2
Mtoe
261.28
22
3.CO2
t CO2/ capita
11.41
16
4.GDP CO2
kg CO2/ 2000$
0.73
73
201532016202020082025200040%202555%82201520%202550%Cool !(Cool)
()
20258%202525%()
202530% 201525%()
20157%(Carbon Neutral) 201110%~70%201520~90%() ()
()4 50 100
() 20162020200820252000() () (NGO
(Policy)(Plan)(97)630959707
1.2.3.()
E
96 94 94() (6/157/24)NGO(8/16)(8/229/5) (10/1812/13)859495()
1.201532006~20254.27%2006~20154. 79% 2016~20253.74%2016 ( (2008) TaiSEND)
201529()
TaiSEND()20052006~20152016~20252006~20254.164.793.744.27
TaiSENDGDP(/)200520152025522,306852,1571,285,955
2.20162020200820252000
-40%202555%-822015200520%202550%133(Kg-CO2)(toe)(Kg-CO2/toe)
(1) -a.
(42.3)
IGCCCCS()
2020IGCC+CCS(20201GW20253 GW)
LNG
20101,05020201,60020252,000
20103,920MW20154,972 MW20206,711MW20258,450MW
2009
~
(BREF)(BREF) 5
b.
(%)
(Electrical efficiency)
LHVnet
()
36-40
32-35
38-45
-
>38
>35
/ (HRSG)
54-58
50-54
(HRSG)
1. 2.3.5. 1. 2.3.4.1.2.3.4.1.2.3. 4.
1. 2.(Carbon Neutral)
1.2.
50%201020052020201520254.69.27.16.65.8(LOE/) (base)()2%(2) -U,
() 1.4.8%12.0%
15.6%
37.3%
30.3 %10,5490.4 %8.5 %8.0 %
51.2%
31.9%
12,78913,3326.8%6.8%
22.3%
43.1%
21.0%13,61812,0946.5%10.0%19.8%
39.6%
24.1%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal05 %10.6 %6.7 %
50.8%
31.4 %
Chart3
331153597121112.843.5
4354697210851154.648.7
3876476419951536616
2920479523941209772
280157442975901910
201520152015
2005
$4,356$5,547$5,436$5,017
$6,929$6,161$6,161$5,242
$1,085$2,265$2,265$2,408
$1,158$1,434$1,434$1,434
$75$711$711$711
2025202520252025
20002005201520202025
33114354$3,876$2,920$2,801
53596972$4,764$4,795$5,744
7121085$1,995$2,394$2,975
1112.81154.6$1,536$1,209$901
43.548.7$616$772$910
$13,614
Sheet3
2005201520252015202520152025
$1,726$2,522$3,661$2,432$2,673$2,106$1,876
$483$438$161$438$142$376$96
$1,110$1,716$2,101$1,716$2,101$1,716$1,716
$514$784$365$784$365$784$365
$260$260$360$260$360$260$360
259600800600800600$800
Sheet3
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
000000
2. ()200043.2%201553.1%202553.8%1.(2008)96 2.(2008) Markal
(Life Cycle Thinking)FAHPLCA()1. (96.06.1596.07.24)2.4. (97.10.22)
()()() 1. 2. 3.
()
LCA(Gate to gate)CO2
( 2,4,Dsoil)(2,4,Dwater)(eq SO2)(eq Bezeneair )eq Toulene200073.70.1516.91.644642005104.50.2723.22.2569201573.50.3918.81.4415202586.70.5220.61.4525
()()200560196259()25.640.937.555.22025159.220152025(GNEP ) (2008)
200526.14%201528.75%25.37% (2008) TaiSEND
2000
2.56
31.31
66.13
2005
2.24
26.14
71.62
2015
2.12
28.75
69.13
2020
2.01
27.62
70.37
2025
1.91
25.37
72.72
(%)
200599.1%86.4%202553.8%40%202555%2025()19.9%15%(8%)
(%)
(/)
(/)
(%)
()(%)
2000
98.7
60.9
108.6
4,195
43.2
14.0
2005
99.1
61.4
104.8
4,974
40.1
12.0
2015
83.2
52.1
155.2
5,515
52.2
13.2
2025
86.4
53.7
220.1
5,749
53.8
19.9
()()(FAHP)()FAHP(SAW)AHP FAHP
FAHP1. 2.
3. 4.
5%20154%