28
Source: PIDA, 2007 光電科技之深耕 光電產業之發展 李正中 教授 中央大學 光電科學與工程學系 中央大學 薄膜技術中心 2008116

光電科技之深耕 - spaces.isu.edu.twspaces.isu.edu.tw/~tep/ppt/1/義守大學-2008-1-16論產業.pdf · 光被動元件 ¾Connector, Coupler, WDM ... FPD 比重 逐年增加

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  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    2008116

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    Optics:

    (Optics)(Photonics)

    ()

    Photonics :

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    ()

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    ? ? ?

    ? ?

    Business Model?

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    IntroductoryStage

    GrowthStage

    MaturityStage Decline Stage

    TotalMarketSales

    Product Life Cycle

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    TN/STN/TFT-LCD, PDP, OLED, , , FED

    TN/STN/TFT-LCD, PDP, OLED, , , FED

    LED, LD, CCD, CMOS, PD, Solar Cell

    LED, LD, CCD, CMOS, PD, Solar Cell

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    Optical Amplifier, Switch, OADM, Transceiver

    Connector, Coupler, WDM

    CD (Audio), DVD (Video)

    CD-R Disc, CD-RW Disc, MD Disc, DVD-R Disc, DVD-Rewritable Disc

    DVD Player, DVD Recorder

    CD-ROM Drive, CD-RW Drive, DVD-ROM Drive, DVD-Rewritable Drive, Combo Drive

    TN/STN/TFT-LCD(LED Display)(VFD)(PDP)(OLED)(FED)(Projectors)

    PD(CCD)(CIS)(Solar Cell)CMOSCIS

    (LD)

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    IntroductoryStage

    GrowthStage

    MaturityStage Decline Stage

    TotalMarketSales

    CD-R/RW Discs

    DVD Recorder

    HD-DVD

    Portable DVD Player DVD Recordable

    Discs

    IntroductoryStage

    GrowthStage

    MaturityStage

    DeclineStage

    CD Audio Player

    Video CD Player

    CD-ROM

    CD-RW

    DVD-ROM

    DVD Rewritable

    DVD Audio Player

    Combo

    Product Life Cycle

    DVD Video Player

    Pre-recorded Discs

    :

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    Business Road Map

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    18,000

    1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

    OLEDLEDBlue LDVCSELCMOS sensorBio chipPDPFED

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    0

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    350,000

    400,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    2005 2006 2007

    2,196 10% 2,755 25% 10% 4,332 57% 14%

    22,705 32% 25,220 13% 34% 29,952 19% 35%

    2,579 3% 2,728 7% 3% 3,203 17% 4%

    7,222 17% 7,276 2% 16% 7,550 4% 16%

    284 1% 334 19% 1% 400 20% 1%

    827 6% 838 3% 5% 926 11% 5%

    35,814 13% 39,150 9% 13% 46,363 18% 15%

    15%

    0

    500,000

    1,000,000

    1,500,000

    2,000,000

    2,500,000

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    2005

    1.5

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    1 TFT-LCD 762,835 191% PDP -100%

    2 105 ,764 49% TN/STN-LCD -35%

    3 96,571 23% -13%

    4 DSC 70,137 22% OLED -11%

    5 TN/STN-LCD 51,953 TFT-LCD 19% -10%

    6 (LED) 42,863 19% -6%

    7 24,799 CMOS 15% -2%

    8 24,275 (LED) 14% VFD -1%

    9 17,103 13%

    10 17,008 11%

    2006

    1.295% : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    14,000

    16,000

    1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    LEDLED

    19901990

    FPD FPD 2121

    19961996

    20052005

    1984~2008

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    ---10

    3%

    1%

    9%

    24%

    21%

    42%2006

    $1,278,063

    2000

    $334,387

    30%

    FPD

    1995~2006

    26%

    39%

    1%

    1%

    33%

    1995

    $99,865

    64%

    7%

    19%

    7%

    2%

    1%

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    hats the next?

    FTTH / Access

    LEDLCDCD/DVDCCD/CMOS Sensor

    Energy

    LightingLED

    Bio-Photonics

    HDTVDVD

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    200745014%

    CAGR- 48%FPDLED

    5

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    40,000

    45,000

    50,000

    2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007(f)

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    LED

    0

    2,000

    4,000

    6,000

    8,000

    10,000

    12,000

    Japan 2,987 3,337 3,637 3,964 4,281

    U.S 845 709 851 1,022 1,226

    Europe 666 1,106 1,181 1,350 1,546

    Korea 613 750 931 1,111 1,282

    Taiwan 1,164 1,313 1,445 1,589 1,732

    China 425 534 695 853 1,089

    2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    LED

    LED

    LED

    LED / LD

    LED

    2007LED10%17%LED

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    LED

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    LED

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    LED

    (20mA)

    LED

    LED

    LEDLED

    LEDLED

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    0

    500

    1,000

    1,500

    2,000

    020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

    43 76 175 565 1,095 1,783 2,716 5,839 17,008 60,817 117,859 178,378

    2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

    MW

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2006 2007 2008

    Wafer Cell Module

    MW

    4CAGR- 135%200760020062.616%2008

    8 15 19

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    FPD

    0

    200,000

    400,000

    600,000

    800,000

    1,000,000

    1,200,000

    1,400,000

    OLED 2,448 3,781 3,206 3,856 4,253 5,126

    VFD 6,060 5,199 5,148 5,166 5,158 5,168

    PDP 2,813 1,134 0 0 0 0

    LCDTFT 485,560 640,264 787,305 925,804 1,081,267 1,223,557

    LCDTNSTN 55,019 79,986 50,984 42,081 34,928 29689

    2004 2005 2006 2007(E) 2008(F) 2009(F)

    0.0%

    10.0%

    20.0%

    30.0%

    40.0%

    50.0%

    60.0%

    70.0%

    80.0%

    LCDTNSTN 32.0% 63.2% 60.3% 67.6% 64.7% 75.3%

    LCDTFT 31.3% 34.8% 41.1% 41.5% 42.6% 43.6%

    PDP 1.9% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    VFD 30.0% 27.3% 27.0% 26.5% 25.4% 24.6%

    OLED 21.2% 27.0% 28.3% 24.5% 17.1% 13.7%

    Microdisplay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

    FPD 28.2% 32.5% 35.0% 35.4% 36.6% 37.9%

    2004 2005 2006 2007(E) 2008(F) 2009(F)

    FPD

    TFTTFT LCD41%

    TFT LCD

    iPhonePhoto Frame

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    ::

    Atomic Force MicroscopyRaman SpectromicroscopyTime-resolved Fluorescence SpectromicroscopyPhotonic Force MicroscopyPhase DifferenctialPolarization Laser MicroscopyLive cell imaging systemGene / Chromosome imagingOptical tweezersConfocal MicroscopyIntraval Microscopyu-PET / U-CTX-ray MicroscopyMRIFluorescence imagingFunctional NIR imagingOptical coherence tomographyUltrafast imagingDiffuse optical Tomography SystemBioluminescent imagingCT Laser Mammography

    LLLT

    : PIDA 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    LED

    LED

    LED

    LED/LD

    Roll-to-Roll

    CNT-FED CNT

    Roll-to-Roll

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    Trend of Demand and Gain

    year

    year1960 1999 2005

    Dem

    andG

    ain

    1980

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    The Road Not Taken

    I took the one less traveled by, And that has made all the difference.

    Robert Frost (18741963). Mountain Interval. 1920.

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

  • Source: PIDA, 2007

    Thank you for your attention