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www.jrc.ec.europa.eu
Serving society
Stimulating innovation
Supporting legislation
PV Technology and Trends
Dr. Arnulf Jger-Waldau
DEDE Thailand and IEA PVPS
workshop
03 September 2015, Bangkok
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Contents
Technology Trends
PV Manufacturing
Capacity Expansion
Conclusions
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Technology Trends
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Thin FilmsCommercial CdTe modules
Q1/2012 (12.4%)Q2/2015 (15.4%) +24.2%
Commercial CIGS modules2010: between 7 and 11%2015: between 12
and 15.1%
Commercial silicon tf modules2010: between 5 and 8%2015: between
5 and 11%
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Crystalline SiliconPolysilicon
Siemens Process 2014: 65120 kWh/kg
FBR 2014: 20
30 kWh/kgPower Output per Wafermc : 2011 (4.02W) 2014(4.33W)
+7.7%mono : 2011 (4.27W) 2014(4.63W) +8.4%
Polysilicon consumption of wafersmc : 2011 (5.92g) 2014 (5.00g)
15.5%mono : 2011 (5.71g) 2014 (4.52g) 20.8 %
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Crystalline SiliconAverage Cell Efficiency
mc : 2012 (17.0%) 2014(17.8%) +4.7%mono: 2012 (18.6%)
2014(19.4%) +4.3%
Average Module Efficiency (no ARC)mc : 2012 (15.1%) 2014(15.7%)
+4.0%mono: 2012 (15.6%) 2014(16.4%) +5.1%
Average Module Efficiency (ARC)mc : 2012 (15.4%) 2014(16.0%)
+3.9%mono: 2012 (15.8%) 2014(16.7%) +5.7%
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Crystalline SiliconEmerging Production Technologies
Passivated Emitter Rear Cells (PERC) 4 and 5 busbar solar cells
(4BB, 5BB) Heterojunction Solar Cells Bifacial Solar Cells
Possible Efficiency Gain
PERC: 4-5% relative, 0.7
1.0% absolute 4BB: about 0.3% absolute
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Manufacturing
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PV cell and thin film production
0
10
20
30
40
50
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e
AnnualProduction[G
W]
Year
Rest of World
United States
Malaysia
Japan
EuropeTaiwan
PR China
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Capacity Expanison
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Capacity ExpansionNameplate Capacity
End of 2013: ~ 62 GW
End of 2014: ~ 88 GWOperational CapacityEnd of 2013: ~ 45 GWEnd
of 2014: ~ 66 GW
Announcements 1H 2015c-Si cells: ~ 2.9 GWThin films: ~ 5.1
GW
Integrated cell/module: ~ 7.1 GW
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Capacity ExpansionTechnology
(in order of announced MWs)
PERC "standard c-Si technology" CdTe CIGS HJ Bifacial
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Capacity ExpansionWhere are the new plants build
(top 5 in order of announced MWs)
India South Korea China Thailand Malaysia
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Conclusions
PV technology has made significant progress. In all
technologies
the progress has been greater than predicted in various
roadmaps.
Further material reduction per Wp ongoing.
PV cell and thin film capacity still larger than demand.
Shift of PV production.
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Photo by Steve Locke
Thank you for your attention!
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