Adoption Potential AnalysisAdoption Potential Analysis

Lieven De Marez

IBBT-MICT-UGent

Today’s Innovation Spiral

Technology evolving at a dazzling speed, … intensified competition, … more innovations to distinguish themselves from

competitors, … shortening product life cycles, … increased pressure on NPD processes & introduction strategies, … more

failing innovations, …

Adoption Potential Analysis: WHAT?

ADOPTION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS

& more accurate, please …

Adoption Potential Analysis: WHY?

“ … there is a increasing need for an ability to see the potential of

“ Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij die groep gebruikers die iets slomer is

op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Vraag echter, is in welke mate er

effectief een potentieel bestaat binnen die groep. Beide operatoren

moeten dus een element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de

consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen ”

(DM, September 2005)

Potential? BM? Marketing?Configuration?

technology concepts emerging in one’s own R&D lab and to know

which direction to take them on the path of commercialization”

(CES Las Vegas, January 2008)

“… the key is to understand what it will take to close the gap

between the visionary’s expectations and the early majority’s expectations,

and to deliver on the early majority requirements at the right time. The goal

is not to be the first in the absolute sense, but to be the first with the

product that finally unlocks the mega-market”(Steve Jobs, 2001, introduction iPod)

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

Is there any (mass market) potential for my innovation?

~Living Labs

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

MADUF: Potential for Mobile TV in Flanders?

Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575)

30

35

40

45

50

0

5

10

15

20

25

Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7

innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards

17%

Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575)

45

50

Finland, 1 intention Q

2006: promising potential

2007: overestimation

17%41%

Flanders, 3 intention Q’s

Modest Potential

40%

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

MADUF (2007): Are we more accurate?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7

innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards

17%41%

3 Q1 Q

40%

1 Q

Potential in Finland = potential in Flanders?

DTV segmentation forecast

25

30

35

40

Q3 06

1mio

(+882000)

2006: 140000

40000 Belgacom

+ 100000 Telenet

Q1 08

Digital Television (2004): Are we more accurate?

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

0

5

10

15

20

DTV 2004 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 21,1

innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards

Timing? +½ y +2 y

Q3 05 Q1 06 Q1 08

? ?

138000

300000

Potential for Digital Television in Flanders (2004)?

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

30

35

40

45

50

What if? VOD vs NVOD:

Impact on adoption potential?

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

& NVOD 0,6 6,2 44,7 31,8 17,8

& VOD 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 26,3

INN EA EM LM LAGG

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

Romas (2006): Potential for Mobile News in Flanders?

Adoption Potential Mobile News

30

35

40

What if? Flat fee vs Free:

Impact on adoption potential?

0

5

10

15

20

25

Paid 2,6 14,9 24,2 35,7 8,9

Free 10,8 37,5 15,2 18,6 4,5

innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

What is the best product configuration to maximize on that potential?that potential?

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

eHUB EU vs US: potential ok, but which of 6 concepts and with what configuration?

30

35

30

35

e.g. eHUB: 16 features & specs, ….

What if HDcapacity is 120GB instead of 60GB, & CD Ripping at 24x instead of 12x, and wireless connection to all devices in the home:

Impact on adoption potential?

Media CenterAudio Center

Willingness to pay €959 €529

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

0

5

10

15

20

25

US 20,6 25,8 28,5 11 3,8

EU 4,1 18,5 25,4 26,2 18,7

INN EA EM LM LAGG 0

5

10

15

20

25

US 19,7 29,8 31,7 12,1 8,1

EU 12,1 29,5 26,4 16,3 14,7

INN EA EM LM LAGG

Willingness to pay €559 €889

Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless

HD Capacity 250 / 350 / 500 GB 250 / 350 / 500 GB

CD Ripping 8x / 12x / 24x 8x / 12x / 24x

Memory card slot … Y / N Y / N

Moviebeam service … Y / N Y / N

VOD + ppmovie Y / N + €2.95 Y / N + €1.95

…

Willingness to pay €959 €529

Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless

HD Capacity 40 / 80 / 120 GB 40 / 80 / 120 GB

CD Ripping 8x / 12x / 24x 8x / 12x / 24x

CD Burning Y / N Y / N

Digital photo display Y / N Y / N

Internet radio Y / N Y / N

…

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

How to introduce my innovation to maximize on that potential?potential?

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’?

“Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element

naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.”

( “Telenet en BelgacomTV strijden om de ‘early adopter’. De eerste is de beste klant.” – DM 030905)

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’?

Family contextBusy householdsComfort offer

no wtp for voetbal

Young, maleInternet on tv

soccer

”Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element element element element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.”

45,0%

Penetration on moment of research

(medio 2003)

ADSL

Cable K M L Tot

K 21% 29% 50% 100%

M 19% 26% 55% 100%

L 8% 28% 64% 100%

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation?

K M L

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

40,0%

45,0%

ADSL

Kabel

ADSL 2,6% 10,2% 27,7% 41,1% 18,4%Kabel 2,8% 9,9% 26,4% 40,9% 20,1%

Zeer Kort Kort Middellang Lang Lag./OoP

Z K K M L L a g

Z K

K

M

L

L a g

Q 1

Q 2

Q 3

ADSL

Cable

Q1 Q2 Q3

Speed x x

Price x x

Ease of Installation/comfort x x

Varied offering x x

Betrouwbaar x x x Betrouwbaar + Gevest

Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation?

Potential? Marketing?Configuration?

Betrouwbaar x x x

Behulpzaam x x x

Kwaliteitsgericht x x

Verantwoordelijk x x x

Stimulerend (x) x

Geeft voldoening x x

Betrouwbaar + Gevest

Motivator Belga

Onzekere financiële toe

Demotivator Te

Opinion leaders bewerken

Medio 2003

Speed ito Mb/sMarket not ready

Q1

Speed-ad

SkateSkate--rampramp

CarsCars

Q2

+ strong price promotions, installation at

home

Q3

+ free internet lessons

+ image

2005/6

Speed ito Mb/sMarket ready

Adoption potential analysis� one IBBT - excellence: answering questions regarding …

� The potential of your innovation� The ideal product configuration to harvest that potential� The ideal introduction strategy for your innovation

� … and being a complementary building block for other IBBT excellences

� e.g. potential estimates for Business Modelling (e.g. MADUF ~VRT, SMIT)� e.g. user expectations for product and network configuration (e.g. WiCa,

CUO)� e.g. valorisation …

� … resulting in a truly user-driven and interdisciplinary NPD process& more effective and successful innovation processes