Adoption Potential AnalysisAdoption Potential Analysis
Lieven De Marez
IBBT-MICT-UGent
Today’s Innovation Spiral
Technology evolving at a dazzling speed, … intensified competition, … more innovations to distinguish themselves from
competitors, … shortening product life cycles, … increased pressure on NPD processes & introduction strategies, … more
failing innovations, …
Adoption Potential Analysis: WHAT?
ADOPTION POTENTIAL ANALYSIS
& more accurate, please …
Adoption Potential Analysis: WHY?
“ … there is a increasing need for an ability to see the potential of
“ Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij die groep gebruikers die iets slomer is
op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Vraag echter, is in welke mate er
effectief een potentieel bestaat binnen die groep. Beide operatoren
moeten dus een element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de
consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen ”
(DM, September 2005)
Potential? BM? Marketing?Configuration?
technology concepts emerging in one’s own R&D lab and to know
which direction to take them on the path of commercialization”
(CES Las Vegas, January 2008)
“… the key is to understand what it will take to close the gap
between the visionary’s expectations and the early majority’s expectations,
and to deliver on the early majority requirements at the right time. The goal
is not to be the first in the absolute sense, but to be the first with the
product that finally unlocks the mega-market”(Steve Jobs, 2001, introduction iPod)
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
Is there any (mass market) potential for my innovation?
~Living Labs
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
MADUF: Potential for Mobile TV in Flanders?
Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575)
30
35
40
45
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7
innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards
17%
Mobiele TV Vlaanderen (2007, N: 575)
45
50
Finland, 1 intention Q
2006: promising potential
2007: overestimation
17%41%
Flanders, 3 intention Q’s
Modest Potential
40%
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
MADUF (2007): Are we more accurate?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Mobiele TV Vlaanderen 0,7 5,4 10,6 43,7 39,7
innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards
17%41%
3 Q1 Q
40%
1 Q
Potential in Finland = potential in Flanders?
DTV segmentation forecast
25
30
35
40
Q3 06
1mio
(+882000)
2006: 140000
40000 Belgacom
+ 100000 Telenet
Q1 08
Digital Television (2004): Are we more accurate?
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
0
5
10
15
20
DTV 2004 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 21,1
innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards
Timing? +½ y +2 y
Q3 05 Q1 06 Q1 08
? ?
138000
300000
Potential for Digital Television in Flanders (2004)?
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
30
35
40
45
50
What if? VOD vs NVOD:
Impact on adoption potential?
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
& NVOD 0,6 6,2 44,7 31,8 17,8
& VOD 2,3 14,7 35,6 20,9 26,3
INN EA EM LM LAGG
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
Romas (2006): Potential for Mobile News in Flanders?
Adoption Potential Mobile News
30
35
40
What if? Flat fee vs Free:
Impact on adoption potential?
0
5
10
15
20
25
Paid 2,6 14,9 24,2 35,7 8,9
Free 10,8 37,5 15,2 18,6 4,5
innovators early adopters early majority late majority laggards
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
What is the best product configuration to maximize on that potential?that potential?
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
eHUB EU vs US: potential ok, but which of 6 concepts and with what configuration?
30
35
30
35
e.g. eHUB: 16 features & specs, ….
What if HDcapacity is 120GB instead of 60GB, & CD Ripping at 24x instead of 12x, and wireless connection to all devices in the home:
Impact on adoption potential?
Media CenterAudio Center
Willingness to pay €959 €529
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
0
5
10
15
20
25
US 20,6 25,8 28,5 11 3,8
EU 4,1 18,5 25,4 26,2 18,7
INN EA EM LM LAGG 0
5
10
15
20
25
US 19,7 29,8 31,7 12,1 8,1
EU 12,1 29,5 26,4 16,3 14,7
INN EA EM LM LAGG
Willingness to pay €559 €889
Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless
HD Capacity 250 / 350 / 500 GB 250 / 350 / 500 GB
CD Ripping 8x / 12x / 24x 8x / 12x / 24x
Memory card slot … Y / N Y / N
Moviebeam service … Y / N Y / N
VOD + ppmovie Y / N + €2.95 Y / N + €1.95
…
Willingness to pay €959 €529
Connectivity Wired / Wireless Wired / Wireless
HD Capacity 40 / 80 / 120 GB 40 / 80 / 120 GB
CD Ripping 8x / 12x / 24x 8x / 12x / 24x
CD Burning Y / N Y / N
Digital photo display Y / N Y / N
Internet radio Y / N Y / N
…
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
How to introduce my innovation to maximize on that potential?potential?
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’?
“Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element
naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.”
( “Telenet en BelgacomTV strijden om de ‘early adopter’. De eerste is de beste klant.” – DM 030905)
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
DTV (2004): How to cross ‘the chasm’?
Family contextBusy householdsComfort offer
no wtp for voetbal
Young, maleInternet on tv
soccer
”Het echte marktpotentieel zit bij de groep gebruikers die iets slomer is op gebied van nieuwe technologie. Beide operatoren moeten dus een element element element element naar voren brengen waarmee ze de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’de consument achter die groep ‘early adopters’ kunnen binnenhalen.”
45,0%
Penetration on moment of research
(medio 2003)
ADSL
Cable K M L Tot
K 21% 29% 50% 100%
M 19% 26% 55% 100%
L 8% 28% 64% 100%
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation?
K M L
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
25,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
45,0%
ADSL
Kabel
ADSL 2,6% 10,2% 27,7% 41,1% 18,4%Kabel 2,8% 9,9% 26,4% 40,9% 20,1%
Zeer Kort Kort Middellang Lang Lag./OoP
Z K K M L L a g
Z K
K
M
L
L a g
Q 1
Q 2
Q 3
ADSL
Cable
Q1 Q2 Q3
Speed x x
Price x x
Ease of Installation/comfort x x
Varied offering x x
Betrouwbaar x x x Betrouwbaar + Gevest
Broadband (2004): Acquisition Segmentation?
Potential? Marketing?Configuration?
Betrouwbaar x x x
Behulpzaam x x x
Kwaliteitsgericht x x
Verantwoordelijk x x x
Stimulerend (x) x
Geeft voldoening x x
Betrouwbaar + Gevest
Motivator Belga
Onzekere financiële toe
Demotivator Te
Opinion leaders bewerken
Medio 2003
Speed ito Mb/sMarket not ready
Q1
Speed-ad
SkateSkate--rampramp
CarsCars
Q2
+ strong price promotions, installation at
home
Q3
+ free internet lessons
+ image
2005/6
Speed ito Mb/sMarket ready
Adoption potential analysis� one IBBT - excellence: answering questions regarding …
� The potential of your innovation� The ideal product configuration to harvest that potential� The ideal introduction strategy for your innovation
� … and being a complementary building block for other IBBT excellences
� e.g. potential estimates for Business Modelling (e.g. MADUF ~VRT, SMIT)� e.g. user expectations for product and network configuration (e.g. WiCa,
CUO)� e.g. valorisation …
� … resulting in a truly user-driven and interdisciplinary NPD process& more effective and successful innovation processes