3957_1359_novemberpalmettopoll

8/3/2019 3957_1359_novemberpalmettopoll

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Clemson Universitys Palmetto Poll: 2012

Executive Summary

As a scandal envelopes one GOP presidential candidate and the South Carolina presidentialprimary draws near, voters across the state are still unsure as to whom they will support in theRepublican primary on January 21st. The initial Palmetto Poll, sponsored by ClemsonUniversity, the Strom Thurmond Institute and the College of Business and Behavioral Sciencesfinds voters following the news and paying attention, but unsure as to who will capture theirallegiance in the important primary. Since 1980, the winner of the GOP South Carolina Primaryhas won the Republican nomination for president every time.

A sample of 600 likely voters was asked to participate in the survey, most of whom werefrequent GOP primary voters, but about a third were general election voters who indicated they

would vote in the presidential primary as well. The S.C. presidential primary is expected to drawaround 600,000 voters early next year. Nearly 70% (68%) of those surveyed said they werefollowing the news about the election, but hadnt decided on whom to support. Importantly, thePalmetto Poll asked respondents if they were likely to stay with the person they choose orchange their mind between now and January. About 68% of the respondents said they werelikely to change their mind before the election.

In the Republican contest, Mitt Romney (22%) and Herman Cain (20%) led the field, and theirnumbers are within the margin of error of the poll. The poll was in the field when allegationswere made about Herman Cain and we were unable to measure the effect the scandal might haveon his candidacy. The figures have a plus or minus 4.5 percent error. The third place candidate

was the fast-rising Newt Gingrich (10%), with Rick Perry next at 9%. The other candidates are:Ron Paul, (3%), Michelle Bachmann (3%), Rick Santorum (1%) and Jon Huntsman (1%).

Only about 12% of the respondents said they were members of the Tea Party or had attended ameeting of the group, while 38% said they supported it, and only 4% said they were an opponentof the movement. Over half of those polled, 51%, said they neither supported nor opposed theTea Party.

Clemson Universitys Palmetto Poll

Tables and Explanation


2/5

With about two months to go before the crucial South Carolina presidential primary, thePalmetto Poll finds that less than one-fourth (23%) of self-described voters in the RepublicanPresidential Primary have a good idea about whom they will vote in the election early next year.

Each candidate in the GOP primary has visited the Palmetto state, and a few are running

television ads on cable in anticipation of the January vote. The Palmetto Poll is sponsored byClemson University, the Strom Thurmond Institute and the College of Business and BehavioralSciences, and was conducted between October 27 and November 7. During this time allegationsof sexual harassment were made against one of the frontrunners in the state.

Two-thirds of the respondents were chosen for their participation in this survey based on theirprevious GOP participation, about one-third were general election voters who indicated theyplanned to vote in January. Cell phone respondents constitute about 7% of the sample. Allrespondents indicated they were going to vote in January of 2012. These primary voters aredifferent from general election voters in that they are better informed, are somewhat older andbetter educated and generally more interested in politics. Over one-half of voters in the sample

used were aged 55 years or older, and the voting cohort for the primary is 87% racially white.Nearly half (48%) were college graduates, and over half made more than $50,000 per year.Currently the Republican primary is set for Saturday, January 21

st. Six hundred people were

interviewed for this poll, which has an error of plus or minus about 4.5 percent.

The first question asked respondents how closely they were following the present election. Theplacement of the South Carolina primaries immediately after the Christmas holidays means thatcandidate commercials will be running in competition with business advertising. Before theholiday, how closely are South Carolina voters following the campaign in November?

Q1. Thinking about the 2012 presidential election, which of the following best describes your

thoughts on this contest?

Republicans: November

1. Have a good idea about who to support. 23%

2. Have been following the news but havent decided. 68%

3. Not paying much attention 6%

4. DK/NA 3%

The poll asked respondents to give only one response in each of the categories. The voters hereare following the news, but remain open to candidate commercial appeals and televisioncoverage of their visits. In short, the election outcome is still up for grabs. We find that mostpeople are following the news coverage of the election, but less than a quarter have a good ideaabout who they will support.


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The Palmetto Poll asked about name recognition and favorability ratings of the candidates. Thepoll assumed that the candidates were making an impression, or not making an impression, onthe voters. Accordingly we followed the question about attention to the campaign with one onthe familiar head-to-head race for the nomination. When respondents had no choice, the pollasked them which way they leaned in the election.

Q2. If the 2012 presidential primary in South Carolina were held today, for whom would you

vote?

Republicans: November

1. Mitt Romney 22%

2. Herman Cain 20%

3. Newt Gingrich 10%

4. Rick Perry 9%

5. Ron Paul 4%

6. Michelle Bachmann 3%

7. Jon Huntsman 1%

8. Rick Santorum 1%

9. Undecided 31%

The sexual harassment accusations against Herman Cain surfaced during our polling, but he stillremained within the margin of error of the frontrunner, Mitt Romney. We note that Romney isthe candidate who leads in the national polls, and that he was leading in our November, 2007Palmetto Poll before finally finishing fourth in the voting in January of that election year.We note that the number of undecided voters in this survey is substantial, around 31%, and thatthis indecision remained after they were asked which way to you lean if they had no favoritecandidate. As the election itself draws closer, history shows that South Carolina voters aretaking their responsibilities more seriously, and respondents are less likely to make casualselection when queried about who they are likely to support in the January vote or how they lean,

but for now they are largely ambivalent.

The next question in the Palmetto Poll asked voters about how sure they were that their choiceof a candidate was conclusive. Remember than many of them were asked their preferences asleaners. Voters were asked the following question as a follow-up after they made a choice forthe primary election.


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Q3. Are you sure about voting for _______________ or might you change your mind before theSouth Carolina primary elections?

Republicans:

Very sure 30%

Might change 68%

DK/NA 2%

Beginning in 2007 a protest movement known as the Tea Party arose in opposition togovernment spending, the focus of which is to call attention to Washington habits. Much wasmade of the power of the movement in the wake of the 2010 midterm elections when a numberof incumbents were unseated by those claiming Tea Party allegiance. Two questions on thePalmetto Poll concerned this movement.

Q4. Do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party or have you gone to a Tea Party

meeting?

Yes 12%

No 87%

DK/NA 2%

The membership of the Tea Party appears to be quite small, but few respondents required thepollsters to give an explanation of what the movement was indicating that they were at leastacquainted with the principles and ideals of those active in the movement.

Q5. Would you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party Movement?

Supporter 38%

Opponent 4%

Neither 51%

DK/NA 7%

Nearly 40% of the respondents indicated that they were sympathetic with the Tea Party, andabout half said they were neither supportive nor opposed to it. Outright opposition was quitesmall, indicating that some in the neither category might really be quiet supporters.


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The final question measured the approval ratings for statewide elected officials in SouthCarolina. The following results reflect statewide sentiments.

Q6. Please tell me if you have a favorable opinion of __________ ?

Heard of Favorable Unfavorable

Jim DeMint 94% 70% 13%

Lindsey Graham 96% 63% 22%

Nikki Haley 97% 64% 17%

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3957_1359_novemberpalmettopoll