© 2018

Report

From Technologies

to Markets

3D Imaging & Sensing

-

2018 Report

SAMPLE

© 2018

2

YOLE REPORT OBJECTIVES

Provide a clear understanding of applications and related technologies.

Company ecosystem identification and analysis:

• Major actors on a global basis

• Technical market segmentation

• Economic requirements by segment

• Key players by market and analysis

• Market size and market forecast in $M and M units

Use case analysis and market and technology trends involved:

• Determine applications range

• Detailed applications per market segment

• Technology identification for different products and processes

• Competing technologies

• Main technical challenges

CompanyEcosystem

Market forecast

Technology

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

Use case

Market

Trend

3

METHODOLOGIES & DEFINITIONS

Market

Volume (in Munits)

ASP (in $)

Revenues (in $M)

Yole’s market forecast model is based matching several sources:

Information

Aggregation

Preexisting

information

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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TABLE OF CONTENTS (1/2)

o GLOSSARY 2

o TABLE OF CONTENTS 3

o COMPANY CITED 5

o REPORT OBJECTIVES 6

o METHODOLOGY 8

o EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12

1 - INTRODUCTION 26

• What is 3D Imaging & Sensing?

• Market segmentation

• Noteworthy news

2- MARKET FORECAST 37

• Market forecast

• 2011 - 2023 3D Imaging & Sensing market(in Munits)

• 2011 - 2023 3D Imaging & Sensing ASP (in $)

• 2011 – 2023 3D Imaging & Sensing market (in $M)

3- ECOSYSTEM 49

• 3D Imaging & Sensing ecosystem mapping

• Mobile and consumer electronics ecosystem

4.1- APPLICATION TRENDS – MOBILE & CONSUMER 55

• Who can afford a smartphone?

• 2011–2022 Mobile handset forecast (in M units)

• 2011–2022 Penetration scenario of 3D cameras in smartphones (in %)

• Mobile market trends

• Mobile application trends

4.2- APPLICATION TRENDS – MOBILE & CONSUMER 68

• Consumer market trend

• Consumer application trends

• Computing market trend

• Computing application trend

• Consumer robotics market trend

• Consumer robotics application trends

4.3 – APPLICATION TRENDS – AUTOMOTIVE 87

• Automotive market trend

• Automotive applications trends

• Autonomous vehicles

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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TABLE OF CONTENT (2/2)

4.4 - APPLICATIONTRENDS – MEDICAL 104

• 2013 – 2023 Sensors for X-Ray CT forecast

• 2013 – 2023 Sensors for molecular imaging forecast

• 2013 – 2023 Sensors for 3D CBCT

• 2013 – 2023 OCT equipment forecast

4.5- APPLICATION TRENDS – INDUSTRIAL & COMMERCIAL 103

• Commercial applications

• Industrial applications

• 2011–2023 3D imaging & sensing for commercialapplications forecast

• 2011-2023 3D imaging & sensing for industrial applicationsforecast

• 2011- 2023 commercial robotics forecast

• 2011- 2023 automated guided vehicle forecast

4.6- APPLICATION TRENDS – SCIENTIFIC, DEFENCE & SPACE116

• Surveying geosystems

• Geographical Information Systems

• Military drones

5.1- TECHNOLOGY APPLE IPHONE X TRUEDEPTH 138

5.2- TECHNOLOGY TRENDS - OPTICAL 3D 146

• Depth sensing technologies

• 3D imaging & sensing for consumer

• 3D imaging & sensing for the industry

• 3D Time of flight

• Simultaneous localization and mapping

5.3- TECHNOLOGY TRENDS - LIDAR 175

• 2011- 2022 lidar market forecast

• Lidar technology trends

5.4-TECHNOLOGY TRENDS – OTHER 3D TECHNOLOGIES 188

• Medical technology trends

• Industrial technology trends

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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II-VI, Abbott, ams,, Apple, ASC, BAE Systems, Bioptigen, Bosello, Canon, Continental, Core Photonics, Crystalvue, Epcos, Faceshift, Fairchild, Faro, First Sensor, Finisar, Fujifilm, GE, Gestigon, IDS, Huvitz, IFM, IQE, iRobot, iRay,

Hamamatsu, Heptagon, Hexagon Metrology, Himax, Hokuyo, Hologic, Honeywell, Lee, Infineon, Keyence, Konica Minolta, Kreon, LeddarTech, Leica, Linx, Lips, LMI, Lumentum, Mantis Vision, Medtech, Melexis, Namuga, Nidek,

Nikon, Nordson Dage, Nsi, Oculus, On Semi, Opto, Optopol, Orbbec, Pebbles, Olympus, Panasonic, Perceptron, Philips Photonics, Pix4D, PMD, Quanergy, Sanan, Sensata, Samsung, Sensl, Sick, Siemens, Softkinetic, Soitec, Sony, St.

Jude Medical, STMicroelectronics, Teledyne Dalsa, Tetravue, Topcon, Toshiba, Trixell, Trinamix, Valeo, Varex, Varian, Velodyne Lidar, Vieworks, Yxlon, Zimmer, Zeiss Meditech, and more…

COMPANIES CITED IN THIS REPORT

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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ABOUT THE AUTORS OF THIS REPORT

Biography & contact

Pierre Cambou

Pierre Cambou joined the imaging industry in 1999. Following an engineering degree from Université de Technologie deCompiègne in parallel to a master of science from Virginia Tech in 1998, as well as graduating from Grenoble Ecole deManagement’s MBA, Cambou took several positions at Thomson TCS, which became Atmel Grenoble in 2001 and e2vSemiconductors in 2006. In 2012 he founded Vence Innovation, now called Irlynx, in order to bring to market a disruptive man-to-machine interaction technology. He joined market research and strategy consulting company Yole Développement (Yole) asPrincipal Analyst,Technology & Market, Imaging in 2014, within the Photonics, Sensing & Display division.

Guillaume Girardin

Dr. Guillaume Girardin is Director of the Photonics, Sensing & Display Division at Yole Développement, part of Yole Group ofCompanies. As director he also performs several technical activities covering sensing technologies, including solid-state lighting &display, MEMS, sensors, actuators, imaging, photonics and optoelectronics fields.

Based on his valuable experience in the semiconductor industry, Guillaume manages the expansion of the technical and marketexpertise of his team, by increasing synergies around imaging, lighting and display, and enlarging the optoelectronics scope. Theteam interacts daily with leading companies allowing the analysts to collect a large amount of data and integrate theirunderstanding of the evolution of the market with technology breakthroughs. In parallel, Guillaume’s mission is focused on themanagement of business relationships with leaders of the industry and the development of market research and strategyconsulting activities within theYole Group.

Dr Girardin holds a Ph.D. In Physics and Nanotechnology from the Claude Bernard University Lyon 1 (Lyon, France) and an M.Sc.in Technology and Innovation Management from EM Lyon School of Business (Lyon, France).

©2015 | www.yole.fr | Camera Module Industry3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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WHAT WE GOT RIGHT, WHAT WE GOT WRONG

Technology and market forecast challenge

What we got right

o Introduction of 3D sensing in Mobile Q4 2017

o Use case of Mobile front 3D camera

o Involvement of STM and ams in the Apple 3D sensing supply chain

o Opportunity for Sensor semiconductor and 3D camera module manufacturer is in line with forecast

What we got wrong

o Apple used Structured Light approach not Time of Flight for front 3D camera

o 3D imaging & sensing system used for Mobile is therefore far more complex than imagined, boosting the ASP

o Opportunity for Illumination (VCSEL semiconductor) is x5 and optics for illumination side x2.5

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

Body Sample

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WHAT IS 3D IMAGING & SENSING?

Two distinctive approach but many bridges

3D imaging and sensing

can be a heavy computation

exercise

Stereo

Human vision

Stereo

Camera

Depth sensing

Camera

Depth Map

Image

Stereo

Images

3D Model 3D CAD – CGI

Stereo or 3D

Display

3D Imaging

3D Sensing

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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CROSS SEGMENTATION

3D imaging & sensing is

everywhere

CT

Scan

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Fla

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CT

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Beam

CT

SF

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Tim

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Tim

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ate

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FT-O

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Lid

ar

Ste

ab

lela

ser

Fla

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idar

Synth

etic

Aper

ture

Phase

darr

ays

Scientific/Space

Defense

Industrial

Medical

Automotive

Consumer

X Ray CT Optical 3D Optical CT Lidar Radar Ultrasonic

Not covered

in this report

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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WHAT IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT BY THE ANALYSIS

From sub-components to systems

Analysis from the sub

component point of view

Courtesy of SystemPlus

3D Camera

ModulesSystemsSub-components

Sensor, optics

& illumination

Courtesy of PMDTech

Courtesy of Apple

Minimum resolution

50 pixels x 50 pixels arrays

Optics

Module Assy

IlluminatorSensor array

Wafers &

raw material

Courtesy of Sony

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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Embedded 3D

computationalPhotography

and video

MOBILE PHONE MARKET TRENDS

Mobile phone cameras have become multi-sensor optronics interfaces

3D cameras on all devices is still early

stage

Number of sensors

1 sensor

2 sensors

3 sensors

3+ sensors

20202012 2014 2016 2018 2022

• Main and

sub-camera

• LED flash

• Main and

sub camera

• Range finder

• LED flash

Catching up with

DSLR and video

cameras

New embedded 3D imaging

Courtesy of Panono

Courtesy of Sony

Embedded 3D

interactiveThe world becomes interactive

• Dual main and

sub-camera

• 3D mapping

• VR localization

Courtesy of Microsoft

• Dual main or

sub-camera

• 3D mapping

• LED illuminator

©2016 | www.yole.fr | Status of the CMOS image sensor industry3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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MOBILE FRONT 3D CAMERA

Use cases and opportunities of the front 3D camera

“Wow effect”, technology

leadership, and numerous business

opportunities for multiple

products

Enhanced video call

Morphing

Security(Facial recognition)

Gaming(Avatar)

Easy unlocking

Background removal, direct eye-contact

Morphing: real-time

filters (AR, face-swap)

on Facebook,

Snapchat, Instagram

Structured light approach not fully compatible with long

lasting application for now (High power consumption)

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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UNLOCKING THE NEXT DECADE

2027

2017Beginning of the

3D imaging era

1.4Mp NIR GS CameraToF Proximity sensor

Flood IR Illuminator7Mp RGB camera

FRONT Side

FRONT Side

Structured Light approach has been chosen as a

starting point for the 3D imaging era. The front 3D module

could evolve toward ToF technology in the future, showing

more reliability in direct sunlight and lower computation

need.

REAR Side

2D Camera

+3D Camera

for interaction

Multi-camera

System

for photography

Applications vs.Yole’s expectations

DOT IR Projector

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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MOBILE REAR 3D CAMERA

Use cases and opportunities of the Rear 3D camera

| 3D Imaging & Sensing | www.yole.fr | ©2018

Potentiality of

Augmented RealityUse cases for Mobile remains a

hard call :

• Augmented sales pitch

• Augmented gaming

As far as 2018 appeal of use cases

are not yet market proven and

could remain a niche feature in the

future.

Is it worth

an added

3D sensing

hardware ?

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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Consumer

Automotive

Medical

Industry/CommercialScientific/Defense/Space

2023e - 3D Imaging & Sensing

revenue breakdown

by markets

Consumer

Automotive

MedicalIndustry/Commer…

Scientific/Defense/Space

2017 - 3D Imaging & Sensing

revenue breakdown

by markets

3D IMAGING & SENSING MARKET FORECAST (IN $M)

3D Imaging & Sensing is

becoming a consumer market

2017

$2,062M

2023e

$18,524M

Courtesy of Apple

X9CAGR +44%

Market 2017 2023e CAGR

Consumer 375 13,773 82%

Automotive 391 2,383 35%

Medical 186 240 4%

Industry/Commercial 841 1,658 12%

Scientific/Defense/Space 268 471 10%

TOTAL 2,062 18,524 44%

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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MOBILE MARKET TREND

Apple introduced itstrudepth camera end of 2017 establishingthe trend for 3D front facing cameras

Due to the high costof the solution the wave has started on conservative side in terms of volume

We are less bulish for rear 3D business case as a lack of momentum for VR isnot supporting the trend

Adoption curveof smartphone

features are similar

3D camera adoption scenarios

19

3D IMAGING & SENSING MARKET FORECAST

From high end to consumer

revenues increase x10

fold

In the last two years

the market for 3D

imaging & sensing

hardware doubled.

Due to higher ASP cost

than initially envisioned

market horizon has

increased toward $18B

Consumer will reach

$14B by 2023

20

2018-2023 MOBILE AND CONSUMER 3D SENSING ECOSYSTEM

The consumerecosystem for 3D

sensing is a complex

intermixing of partnerships

Sensor

Illumination

Software &

Computing

3D System

Design

$6.2B market

in 2023

$2.2B market

in 2023

$2.7B market

in 2023

Optical path

3D camera

module Mfg

$4.4B market

in 2023

| 3D Imaging & Sensing |

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3D IMAGING AND SENSING TECHNOLOGIES

Depth-sensing technologies in mobile devices(Source: Yole Développement, 2018)

Stereo vision Structured light Time of Flight

Image resolution Several Mpix Max. 1–3 Mpix Max. VGA

HardwareSimple cameras

Complex system

Demanding illumination

Complex system

Simple illumination

Complex sensors

Computation power High Medium Low

LimitationsMay require illumination

in low light

Best indoors

Need power

Best indoors

Low resolution

Picture

(example)

Best suited for Robotic navigation 3D mapping Short-range gesture capture

Maturity High Medium Low

Players

Courtesy of ams

Courtesy of

PMD TechCourtesy of Apple

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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3D IMAGING AND SENSING TECHNOLOGIES

Available approaches

3D is a new frontier for

imaging sensors.

Courtesy of

Lytro

Courtesy of

LenovoCourtesy of

Heliotis

Courtesy of

IntelCourtesy of

Stereo Labs

Courtesy of

Keyence

Courtesy of

Light

Interferometric (OCT)

Time of Flight Structured light Laser triangulation

Plenoptic Stereo vision Computational

Time-gatedStructure from

motion

Computed tomography

Multiple

frame

3D

Single

frame

3D

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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3D IMAGING & SENSING MARKET FORECAST

On going market revolution

The age of 3D is here

• 2017 kick-started 3D imaging & sensing revenues with revenues above $2B and quantities in theorder of 35 Million Units.

• Thanks to semiconductor miniaturization advances, new 3D technologies are able to serve theconsumer market which is now well under way in 2018. The expected volume growth is 89% CAGRfor the next 5 years, revenue wise growth is expected at 44% CAGR.

• Aside of consumer, automotive market for 3D imaging and sensing devices will see large growth of35% CAGR in the next 5 years due to advancer driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomousdriving (AD) efforts.

• The initial growth in 3D imaging & sensing for medical is behind us and will follow the growth rate ofthe industry of 4% as it will fight price erosion.

3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |

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3D Imaging & Sensing – Market & Technology Report |