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ACCC Project, 2010. Water Resources under the changing climate and adaptation. —— 气候变化对水资源的影响及适应. Dr. Guoqing WANG / 王国庆教授 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR Research Center for Climate Change, MWR 南京水利科学研究院 March 5, 2010, Beijing. Contents. Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ACCC Project, 2010
Water Resources under the
changing climate and adaptation
Dr. Guoqing WANG / 王国庆教授
Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, MWR
Research Center for Climate Change, MWR
南京水利科学研究院
March 5, 2010, Beijing
—— 气候变化对水资源的影响及适应
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Global Temperature / 全球气温变化
Global annual mean temperature: +0.74℃ / 年均气温升高0.74
The warmest decade: 1990s / 20 世纪 90 年代是最热的 10 年Recent 11 years rank among the 12 warmest years / 1860 年以来最热的 12 年有 11 年发生在 1995~ 2006
Temperature change in China / 中国气温变化
Similar rising trend to global temperature / 趋势与全球相似Temperature rise during the last 100yrs: 0.5~0.8℃ / 近 100年气温升高 0.5~0.8 ℃
Rising rate during the last 50yrs: 0.22 /10a / ℃ 近 50 年气温平均升率 0.22 /10a ℃
Precipitation change in China (降水变化)
Trend ratios of precipitation during 1951-2002
Western: Increase 西部增加Southern: Increase 南部增加
Increasing
Decreasing
Decreasing
Increasing
Northern: Decrease 北部减少Northeastern: Decrease东北减少
Changes in 60mins rainfall before and after 1980
Changes of extreme rainstorm events / 暴雨变化
Short duration rainfall intensity: Increasing / 暴雨强度增加 Kuanping, Shanxi: 1998.07, 1300mm/6-7hr Zhanjiang, Guangdong: 2007.08, 1188mm/24hr Rain
days of extreme rainstorms: Increasing / 极端降水日数增加
Trend rate of rain days of extreme rainstorms
667mm
118mm35mm
84%
12%4%
Annual runoff depth: 288mm 年径流深 288mmSurface water: 2737.5bm3
地表径流量: 2737.5bm3
Water Resources in China / 中国水资源
Mountain Areas (山丘区)
Plain areas(平原
区)
Overlap: 31.8 bm3
176.5 bm3
677.2 bm3
Ground water: 821.9bm3
地下径流量: 821.9bm3
82%18%
Characteristics of WR / 水资源特点
Uneven distribution in time and space/ 时空分布不均 : 80%
Low water occupation per capita/ 人均水资源量低: < 30%
Serious shortage: 400/668 cities , 水资源严重短缺 : Gap=40bm3, in Normal Year
Huge losses due to flooding and drought / 洪涝、干旱灾害损失巨 大: >GDP1%
多年平均降水量
Spatial distribution
空间分布
Temporal distribution
时间分布
Water Issues in China / 四大水问题
Flooding / 水多 Decreasing / 水少
Polluting / 水脏 Losing / 水混
1.9 3.7 9.1 7.6-0.8
-3.2
-33
-55.5
-4.8
-61.2
-40.1
-62.2
-30.9
-2.5 -2.2
-0.9-0.9
-77.9-76.6-80
-60-40-20
020
宜昌
汉口
大通
唐乃亥
花园口
利津
王家坝
吴家渡
观台
石匣里
响水堡
下会
张家坟
铁岭
江桥
哈尔滨
梧州
石角
竹歧
控制站
距平
(%)
黄河 海河
Changes in Recorded Runoff / 实测径流变化
Significant decreasing : Haihe River, Yellow River
显著减少:海河,黄河Slight changing: other rivers
轻微变化:其它河流
Decreasing rate of runoff during 1980-2004 comparing to that before 1980
Global Warming
Hydrological cycle
Sustainable utilization
Changes in rainfall
Climate change and Hydrological cycle气候变化与水文循环
(水资源的可持续利用)
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
National Key Project (85-913-03-03 )
Social econom
ic datab
ase
Tributaries GCMs
Random weather model
Water balance models
Assessment system of water
Effect assessment
Adaptation measures
Hyd
ro-m
eteo
rolo
gic
Dat
abas
e
Study Catchments/ 研究区域:Tributaries of six big rivers
Assessment Models/ 评价模型 : Lumped Water Balance
Models / 集总式水量平衡模型
Assessment / 评价 : The future water
resources, based on outputs of 7
GCMs
Sub-area1
0
10
20
30
40
1960 1962 1964 1966 1968Time/month
Ru
no
ff/m
m
National Key Project (96-908-03-04 )
GCMs or RCM
(60km×60km)
Downscaling of P and T (30km×30km)
30km×30km grid based hydrological model
Spatial distribution and simulated discharge
Sensitivity analysis
GIS
database
Hydro
-meteorologic database
Study basins / 研究区域 : 4 big river basins
Assessment Models / 评价模型 : 30×30km grid based hydrologic
model
Assessment / 评价 : sensitivity analysis
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-20 -10 0 10 20
DP(%)
DR
(%)
- 2℃
- 1℃
0℃
1℃
2℃
P EP
Extension WaterWm , B
R
Free water storage, Sm
Rapid Q, Cs Slow Q, Cg
Discharge Q
E
Xin’anjiang Model新安江模型
Simplified model structure
5 parameters / 5 个参数Applied to Huaihe River / 应用到淮河流域
B
Wmm
Wm
F
f)
1(1
Wm
Wmm’
Wm’
f/F1
W0
P
Two Parameters Water Balance Model两参数水量平衡模型
P EP
Q
E SOIL MOISTURESOIL MOISTURE
Humid river basins / 湿润地区Hanjiang River, Gangjiang River / 汉江和赣江流域DC>80%
))(/)(tanh()()( tEPtPtEPctE
)/))()()1(tanh(())()()1(()( SCtEtPtStEtPtStQ
P T
Rain/Snow
EP
Snowfall
Rainfall
Accu-
SRunoff
SMRunoff
GFlow Soil moisture
Q
E
Snowmelt-based WBM考虑融雪的水平衡模型
Semi-arid or arid river basins / 干旱半干旱流域Consider snowmelt flow / 考虑融雪径流
ii
ssi PS
SKQ
max
1
iTT
TT
snsni SneKQ LH
Hi
1 iggi SKQ
mm
m
d IPII
PIWWP
IPIWWP
Q0
1
0max00
0max
00
11
max
22max
2221
max2221
WWWWWWdWd
WWWWdQ
SS
Sb
Study area: China 研究区域:中国 Assessment Model: VIC Assessment:
vulnerability
National Key Project (2001-BA611B-02-04)
GIS-based distributed hydrological model / 基于 GIS 的分布式水文模型Relationship between parameters and catchment indices / 下垫面要素Hydrological modeling for poorly gauged river basins / 无资料地区的应用
Flow generation :
Flow concentration :
b
t
CAL
P
LP
S
LLaT
Tq
DTT
P67.26.3
A2
2/
洪峰大小:
洪峰时间:b
t
CAL
P
LP
S
LLaT
Tq
DTT
P67.26.3
A2
2/
洪峰大小:
洪峰时间:
Key Technology1: PUB关键技术:缺资料地区的水文模拟
Auto-optimization combining experts knowledge / 数学自动优化与专家知识结合Simulation accuracy and optimization efficiency / 模拟精度与优化效率
X2
X(1)
X(0)
X(2)
A
X(3)
Rosenbrock method
X1
1...22
...............
2...22
2...12
2...21
)0()0()0()0(
)0(3
)0(3
)0(3
)0(3
)0(2
)0(2
)0(2
)0(2
)0(1
)0(1
)0(1
)0(1
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
dxdxdxx
nnnn
单纯形法
Key technology2: Parameters optimization关键技术:参数优化识别技术
Key technology3: downscaling关键技术:情景降尺度技术
Two statistical approaches / 两种统计降尺度途径
Double linear interpolation method / 双线性降尺度插值方法
Non-linear Lagrange interpolation method / 不等距拉格朗日三点插值方法
Similar temperature fields before and after downscaling from RCMS
Baseline Human-disturbedHuman-disturbed
Key technology 4: Contribution identification关键技术:径流归因识别技术
Two key issuesDetermination of baseline / 基准期的确定 : Cluster analysis method, Mann-Kendall method, etc Runoff naturalized method / 天然径流还原方法 : Hydrological simulation approach, VIC model, WB model
BHRT WWW
HNHRH WWW
BHNC WWW
%100
T
HH W
W
%100
T
CC W
W
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Assessment approach 气候变化影响评价途径
Horizontally integrated
Verticallyintegrated
Assessment / 评价 Model
Impacts
Adaptation / 适应 Policy
Technology
Projected
Scenario / 情景 Projected
Hypothetical
More environmental侧重环境保护
More regional侧重区域
More global侧重全球
B1 B2
A1 A2
More economic侧重经济发展
Climate Scenario / 气候情景模式
( IPCC AR4, 2007 )
6.4℃
1.1℃
Temperature rise: 1.1- 6.4 / ℃ 21 世纪末气温升高 1.1- 6.4
Warmer globe / 一个更加温暖的地球
Temperature trends in 21th Century21 世纪全球气温变化趋势
Possible climate change in China21 世纪我国可能的气候变化
Precipitation: Increase in most areas, Decrease in Northern
China and North-eastern China before 2040 / 大多数地区降水增加,但华北和东北可能减少Temperature / 气温变化: 2030, 1.7℃; 2050, 2.2℃
Probability of flood and drought hazards would increase / 洪涝干旱灾害可能增加 The pattern of south-flood and north-drought would aggravate.
A2
s
cen
ario
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario A2
2071-2100年 A2 情景下的径流分布变化
Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化
• Similar to that under scenario A2, exacerbating the instability of water
system / B2 情景下的水资源类似 A2 , 水资源系统可能更加不稳定
Change in runoff distribution under the scenario B2
2071-2100年 B2 情景下的径流分布变化
B2
sce
nario
Projected water resources distribution未来水资源分布变化
Sensitivity / 敏感性Sensitivity of hydrology to climate change is response degree
of hydrological variable to climate change. High response under
the same climate change means more sensitive to climate change
Cold region: Yilihe River
高寒山区:伊犁河Semi-arid region: Yellow
R
半干旱区:黄河
Semi-humid region: Huai
R
半湿润区:淮河Humid region: Dongjiang
R
湿润区:东江
Study basin研究流域
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
T RISE: increases Spring discharge, decreases runoff in other seasons 气温升高降增加春季径流,减少其它季节径流量
Surface runoff: more sensitive to climate change 地表径流对气候变化更为敏感
Human activities: could decrease sensitivity of runoff 人类活动能够在一点程度上降低水资源对气候变化的敏感性
Yilihe River伊犁河
Yellow River黄河
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化(
%)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
Precipitation change: result in larger runoff change than T does
对降水变化比对温度变化的响应更为敏感Same change range: P+ result in larger runoff change than P-
降水增加比减少对径流的影响更显著Arid region: more sensitive; while humid region less
干旱区对气候变化响应比湿润区更敏感
Huaihe River淮河
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化(
%)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
Dongjiang River东江
Sensitivity of WR to Climate Change水资源系统对气候变化的敏感性
Sensitivity comparison of Hydro-variables不同水文变量敏感性比较
Response Law: similar between actual evaporation and soil moisture
实际蒸发和土壤湿度对气候变化的响应规律类似 P changes: Runoff, actual evaporation, soil moisture, (bigger->less)
径流、蒸发和土湿对降水变化的响应依次降低 T changes: Soil moisture, runoff, actual evaporation, (bigger->less)
土湿、径流和实际蒸发对气温变化的响应依次降低
大夏河
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
径流量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
大夏河年均值
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)土壤含水量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃大夏河年均值
-40
-20
0
20
40
-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
降水变化(%)
实际蒸发量变化
(mm
)
-3℃ -2℃ -1℃
0℃ +1℃ +2℃
+3℃
RUNOFF
径流
SOIL MOISTURE
土壤湿度
ACTUAL EVAPORATION
实际蒸发
Human activities are main reasons of runoff reduction in YR
人类活动是径流减少的主要原因Contribution of Climate change accounts for 39 %
气候变化影响占径流减少总量的 39 %
Identification of CC contribution (YRB)气候变化对径流历史变化的贡献评价
PeriodsReco-ed(108m3)
Simu-ed(108m3)
Total redu(108m3)
Climate-induced Human-induced
108m3 (%) 108m3 (%)
Baseline 237.5
1970-1979 148.5 198.5 89.0 39.0 43.82 50.0 56.18
1980-1989 172.7 217.6 64.8 19.9 30.67 44.9 69.33
1990-2000 95.3 181.1 142.2 56.4 39.64 85.8 60.36
1970-2000 138.8 199.5 98.7 38.0 38.53 60.6 61.47
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Climate Change, IWRM and Resilience
气候变化与水资源一体化管理
Many climate change impacts are just extreme examples of existing challenges. / 气候变化的影响只是目前水资源压力基础上的极端情形
Water resources are already stressed due to economic growth, population pressure and lifestyles.
Many challenges not new, nor product of climate change alone. / 目前水资源短缺不是气候变化单一作用的结果
经济发展、人口增加、生活方式改变,已经使得水资源利用面临着巨大的压力
Flooding Flood management
W Pollution Green economic
W LosingSelf restoration + engineering
Water savingW Shortage
Integrated WR Management / 水资源一体化管理
水土流失 自我修复与水土保持
水污染 绿 色 经 济
水 多 洪 水 管 理
水 少 节 水 技 术
Water-Saving Society / 节水型社会
ChinaChina Developed Developed CountriesCountries
Consumed Water/ 10000GDP(RMB) 537 m537 m33
0.70.7~~ 0.8 0.8 0.40.4 -- 0.50.5
Index of water usage
4×World 4×World Mean valueMean value
The effective-utilization coefficient of agricultural irrigation water (灌溉水利用系数)
北京市高碑店污水处理厂
水 窖
Non-Traditional water sources / 非传统水源
• High cost / 高费用 .• Technology Support / 技
术支持Waste water treatment
污水处理Storm water harvest
雨洪资源利用Sea water desalination
海水淡化
Reservoirs / 水库
River dikes / 堤防
Flood retention areas / 滞洪区
Water transfer projects / 调水工程
Water Controlling Projects / 控制性工程
JingJiang dyke
Embankment
Three Gorge Reservoir Reservoirs: 87,000
已建水库: 87,000
Total storage capacity: 600 billion m3
总蓄水容量: 6000亿 m3
海河 Haihe river
淮河 Huaihe river
黄河 Yellow river
长江 Yangtze river
西线工程WL
中线工程ML 东
线工程EL
Water transfer project / 调水工程
Soil and water conservation / 水土保持
Re-grass / 退牧还草Reforestation / 更新造林Terrace construction / 梯田建设 Check dams / 淤地坝
Perfect policy, laws, and
regulations / 完善法律、法规和政策Public education / 公众教育
Different issues for different regions / 不同区域面临不同问题Different adaptation strategies for different regions / 不同区域的适应措施存在差异
Regional adaptation strategies / 区域适应对策
Principle / 原则
Key Regions
Observed Changes / 观测到的气候变化
Assessment model / 气候变化影响评价模型
Effect Assessment for Water / 水资源影响评价
Adaptative strategies / 气候变化的适应对策
Scientific Issues / 需进一步研究的科学问题
Contents
Uncertainty in Assessment /Uncertainty in Assessment / 不确定性不确定性
Scientific issues and further study进一步需要研究的科学问题
Improvements / Improvements / 改进改进
New scenario / 新情景新情景
Assessment model, especially for ungauged areas / 改进模型改进模型
EmissionScenario
GCMs RCMS AssessmentHM
Limitation of adaptation / Limitation of adaptation / 适应的局限性适应的局限性
More strategies at state level / 多集中在国家层面
Lack of regional adaptation strategies / 缺少区域有效措施
Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention
谢谢!谢谢!