André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University

Copernicus InstituteSustainable Development and Innovation Management

Rationale for Biofuels.

”Biofuels and biodiversity – towards a sustainable use of Bio-energy”

Organized by: Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University

and KNAW’s Global Change Committee

Amsterdam, 12 December 2007 André FaaijCopernicus Institute - Utrecht University


Houston we have a problem!

• Peak oil• Peak soil• Peak water• Peak biodiversity

loss• Peak population• Peak GDP

• Climate• Agriculture• Energy• Biodiversity• Poverty &

development

And it is urgent!


What’s it gonna be? material/economic

regionally oriented

environmental/social

globally oriented

A1 population: GDP: technological growth: high trade: maximal

2050: 8.7 billion 2100: 7.1 billion 2050: 24.2 103 billion $95/y 2100: 86.2 103 billion $95/y

A2 population: GDP: technological growth: low trade: minimal


B1 population: GDP: technological growth: high trade: high


B2 population: GDP: technological growth: low trade: low

2050: 9.4 billion 2100: 10.4 billion 2050: 13.6 103 billion $95/y 2100: 27.7103 billion $95/y


Pathway vs. climate

Bron: KNMI; Dorland


Projections for global final energy demand for the four IPCC scenarios (A1,

A2, B1, B2).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800 others electricity gas liquids solids non-commercial

A1 B1 A2 B2

2000 2030 2050 2100

Fi

nal e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n (E

J/yr

)


Future world’s energy supply…(combined with 80% reduction of GHG-emissions): a portfolio of options is

needed!Scenario C1

Scenario C2

1850 1900 19500

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2050 2100

1850 1900 19500

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2050 2100

Oil

Gas

Oil

Gas

Coal

Other

Solar

Traditional renewables

Other

Nuclear

Solar

Biomass

BiomassNuc.

Traditional renewables

Hydro

Hydro

Coal

Percen

tPer

cent

Courtesy of IIASACourtesy of Shell


Agricultural land use!

• We need a lot more food (especially protein).• We don’t have (a lot) more (agricultural) land.• Agriculture and livestock main threat for

biodiversity (today…), main consumer of water, main emitter of GHG’s.

• Agriculture and poverty interlinked: 70% of the world’s poor in rural setting;

• Productivity in agriculture is awful on large parts of the globe.

• Such agricultural practices often unsustainable as such.

• Poverty (and lack of investment) key driver for unsustainable land use (erosion, forest loss).


Potential land-use pattern changes(IMAGE)

A1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

year

Are

a (G

ha)

A2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

year

Are

a (G

ha)

BioresreveForestCroplandGrasslandRestlandlow-productivityAbandoned

[Hoogwijk, Faaij et al., Biomass & Bioenergy, 2005]


So…• Investment in agriculture (and livestock)

is essential (2nd green revolution; see e.g. Fresco in collaboration with Faaij & Dijk);

• This is feasible (FAO)…• …with increased water use efficiency, less

land, protection of soils and better incomes.

• But: what gets the money and sustainable economic activity into the rural regions?


International bio-energy markets developing

fast… • Excitement:– entered first phases of commodity market trading

(ethanol); pellets the silent suprise.– Creates unique opportunities for both producers

regions as importers.– Entrepreneurs and policy now deal with development of

bioenergy in rapidly developing international context.• Concerns:

– Fierce international debate on sustainability; remarkably fast response from governments, companies, NGO’s.

– Different interests & perspectives on governance & policy

– Vulnerable stage; many barriers remain


Bio-ethanol flows 2000 (kton)

Courtesy of UNCTAD


Bio-ethanol flows 2004 (kton)

Traded: 3 billion litresGlobal production: 32 billion litres

Courtesy of UNCTAD


More trade developments

IEA Task 40

0102030405060708090

100

Trad

ed b

ioen

ergy

vol

ume

(PJ) Import

Export

1%

21% / 4%

24% / 32%

26%

43%

2%27% / 6%

13% / 2%Bradley, 2006


Bioenergy today• 45 EJ + 10 EJ total use• 9 EJ + 6 EJ commercial; non-modern• ~ 8 EJ Modern; commercial:

– < 1 EJ electricity– ~ 2.5 EJ heat– ~ 1.5 EJ biofuels (bulk = ethanol; half of that

ethanol sugar cane based)• Main controversy on biofuels from annual

crops and palm oil. • Currently some 20 Mha in use for biofuels

worldwide (compared to 5,000 Mha for food)


Generations…1st Generation (EU,

US)• Annual crops = food

crops.• Limited to arable land.• Potential constrained.• High costs; mainly

feedstock.• Poor - modest GHG

and env. performance.• Pushed by ‘simple’

policies.

2nd generation• Lignocellulosic materials.• Residues, wastes, arable,

pasture, marginal and degraded lands.

• Potential large.• Strong economic

outlook: technology more important.

• Good – excellent GHG and env. performance

• Demanded by more sophisticated needs

3rd generation: optimized conversion, ‘surprise feedstocks’ (…). But it will take time!


Perennial crops (vs. annual crops)

• Lower costs (< 2 €/GJ)• Planted for 15-25 years• Low(er) intensity

– Can restore soil carbon and structure– Suited for marginal/degraded lands– Requires less inputs (well below key threshold values)

• Wide portfolio of species & production systems– Possibilities for enhancing (bio-) diversity– Adaptable to local circumstances (water, indigenous

species)• Earlier development stage

– Large scale and diverse experience needed– Learning curve to be exploited– Improvement potential

Miscanthus x giganteus


Yields: perennials ~3x annual

Crop Biomass yield (odt/ha* yr)

Energy yield in fuel (GJ/ha*yr)

Wheat 4 - 5 ~ 50Corn 5 – 6 ~ 60Sugar Beet 9 – 10 ~ 110Soy Bean 1 – 2 ~ 20Sugar Cane 10 – 11 ~ 120Palm Oil 10-15 ~ 160Jathropha 5-6 ~ 60

SRC temperate climate 10 – 15 100 - 180SRC tropical climate 15 - 30 170 - 350Energy grasses good conditions 10 - 20 170 – 230Perennials marginal/degraded lands 3 - 10 30 – 120


GHG Balances

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Wastes (Waste Oil,Harvest Residues,

Sewage)Fibers (Switchgrass,

Poplar)Sugars (Sugar Cane,

Beet)Starches (Corn,

Wheat)

Vegetable Oils(Rapeseed, Sunflower

Seed, Soybeans)

Red

uctio

n in

CO

2 Eq

uiva

lent

Em

issi

ons

(Per

cent

)

Source: IEA

IEA – Fulton, 2004


Global potentials are large…; but need to be developed

434111

137

North AmericaJapan Ameri

0 0 0 0

Near East & North Africa

1 2 32 39

W.Europe0 1432 40

harves ting res idues

bioenergy crops

1460

100125

Oceania America

1560

100125

E.Europe

1 8 14 17

East Asia10

21

178221

410

sub-SaharanAfrica

41

149

331

Caribean &Latin America

178

253315

46

268

111 136

CIS & Baltic States

South Asia

1421

2124

434111

137

North AmericaJapan Ameri

0 0 0 0

Near East & North Africa

1 2 32 39

W.Europe0 1432 40

harves ting res idues

bioenergy crops

1460

100125

Oceania America

1560

100125

E.Europe

1 8 14 17

East Asia10

21

178221

410

sub-SaharanAfrica

41

149

331

Caribean &Latin America

178

253315

46

268

111 136

CIS & Baltic States

South Asia

1421

2124

Agricultural land: <100- >300 EJMarginal lands: <60- 150 EJAgri residues: 15-70 EJForest residues: <30-150 EJDung: 5-55 EJOrganic waste: 5 - >50 EJTOTAL: < 250 - > 500 EJ


Bioethanol from lignocellulosic biomass

1. SHF2. SSF3. SSCF4. CBP

+BIG/CC…Major demonstrationsIn US/Canada, EU


Ethanol plants US (status 2006)

Source: John Urbanchuk (data for Oct 31 2006; green =

operating, red = under construction)

0

1000

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7000

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9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

14000

15000

16000

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

2015

U.S

. Eth

anol

pro

duct

ion

[mill

ion

gallo

ns]

U.S. BrazilU.S. projected WorldRFS

Global ethanol

Production &

outlook


Synthetic fuels from biomass

Biomass & coal gasification to FT liquids - with gas turbine

Power

Pre-treatment:

- grinding - drying

feedstock is poplar wood

Gasification:

- air or oxygen- pressurised or atmospheric- direct/indirect

Gas cleaning:

- ‘wet’ cold or ‘dry’ hot

FT liquids

Offgas

Recycle loop

FT synthesis:

- slurry reactor or fixed bed

Gas turbine

Gas processing:

- reforming- shift

- CO2 removal

Major investments in IG-FT capacityongoing in China right now:- Reducing dependency on oil imports!- Without capture strong increase in CO2 emissions…

About 50%of carbon!


What are we waiting for?Yueyang Sinopec-ShellCoal gasification project; (China)

Shell gasifier arrivingat site September 2006.

15 licences in China at present…

Courtesy of Shell


Economic performance 2nd generation biofuels s.t. & l.t.; 3

Euro/GJ feedstock

Hamelinck & Faaij, 2006, Energy Policy


Certification bioenergy (I): ongoing

initiatives • Governments: UK, NL, D, B, and

more EU nations…; EC.• NGO’s: • International bodies: UNEP,

UNCTAD, FAO,…• Market initiatives/multistakeholder:

roundtables on palm, soy and biofuels, GGL, Electrabel,…

IEA Task 40:Van Dam et al., 2007; Biomass & Bioenergy, Forthcoming:


Certification bioenergy (III): concerted action…• First time that governments actually try to

set ‘sustainability criteria’ for a commodity! -> Paradigm shift with implications for food products, fodder, materials etc.

• This takes time (allow for learning).• Varying degree of concern: palm oil/soy

bean/corn… most debated, other (residues, wood) are approved by most stakeholders

• Methodological issues to be resolved: competition, biodiversity, a.o.

• Global convergence, dialogue and deployment priority (leaders needed).


Biofuels roadmap (I).

• Biomass resource base; the foundation:– Perennials; build experience!– Biomass resource (and land) base much more

diverse than agricultural crops (and land) alone.– Biomass cultivation schemes (with perennials)

can offer substantial ecological and socio-economic benefits when done right.

– Develop biomass production in global market context (international trade & sustainability demands)


Biofuels roadmap (II).

• 2nd generation biofuels provide the economics energy & GHG balance to be the winning option.

• Lignocellulosic based EtOH and gasification based synfuels compete.

• Synfuels produced from biomass, coal and natural gas, provide flexible, large scale capacity (+CCS)

• Hydrolysis units can start as ‘add-ons’ to current EtOH production capacity.

• Lignocellulosic resources for power on shorter term (now); for fuels on medium term (before 2015).


Stay with me for 4 more seconds…

• Current crisis in crossing the global carrying capacity requires unprecedented action…

• …and it has to be fast!• …and it will not be easy.• Bioenergy is at the nexus of land-use (2nd

revolution!), development (poverty!), energy (oil!) and climate (carbon stocks!); this is a unique position.

• We have the bioenergy options to achieve synergies (as well as the wrong ones)


Stay with me for 2 more seconds…

• Governance is the key; across policy fields (agriculture, energy, climate, development); consistent and stable.

• Policies on biofuels redesigned: from one to multiple objectives.

• Moratorium on ‘temperate climate biofuels’ seems wise; save money…

• …and spend it on the right biofuels.


"Modern bio-energy and biofuels have the potential to cover one third of the future world's energy demand on a sustainable basis and provide a key

lever for much needed rural development on a global scale".

“Postponing action and generating confusion is at this stage immoral”

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André Faaij Copernicus Institute - Utrecht University