Ant-CG

8/11/2019 Ant-CG

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STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL

AMPNTIQUE’S MORNING PRESENTATION

8 September 2014

Market Snapshot

Global Indices Closing % Chg

Dow Jones 17,137 0.4

NASDAQ 4,583 0.5

FTSE 6,855 (0.3)

CAC 4,486 (0.2)

DAX 9,747 0.2

Russia 1,257 1.3

Bovespa 60,682 (0.2)

Nikkei 15,669 (0.1)

Hang Seng 25,240 (0.2)

Shanghai Composite 2,326 0.8

Indian Indices Closing % Chg

Sensex 27,027 (0.2)

Nifty 8,087 (0.1)

MSCI India 519 (0.1)

CNX Midcap 11,568 0.3

BSE Smallcap 10,627 1.3

Flows (USDm) Prev. Day

FII 287

Locals (19)

Provisional flows (UFIIs

Locals

Volumes USDbn

Cash (NSE + BSE) 3.5

F&O (net) 28.0

FII F&O Stock Fut Ind

Net ($ mn) (104)

Open Int (%) (0.3)

ADR/GDR Gainers Last

Wipro 12.3

Infosys 61.6

Reliance 34.3

SBI 84.0

Dr Reddy 49.5

ADR/GDR Losers Last

Tata Motors 47.6

Ranbaxy 10.8

FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

COMPANY UPDATE

Crompton Greaves LimitedConsumer business: A jewel in its crown

Global News

US stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index erasing a weekly loss, asgeopolitical tensions eased and lower-than-estimated jobs data fuelled bets thatthe Federal Reserve won’t rush to raise interest rates.

Asian stocks fell, with the regional benchmark indices paring their weekly advance,as material and energy companies slid.

Sector & Corporate News

JSW Steel’s crude steel production in Aug-14 increased 13% to 1.1MT ascompared to 1MT in Aug-13. Production of rolled products (flat) rose 7% to0.9MT versus 0.8MT in August last year. Moreover, production of rolled products(long) during the month soared 53% to 0.2MT as against 0.1MT in Aug-13.

Eros International Media, a leading global film company in the India filmentertainment industry, is planning to raise INR7.5bn through an issue of non-convertible debentures on a private placement basis. In this regard, the company

is seeking shareholders' approval on September 25. Kalpataru Power Transmission has bagged various orders worth over

INR6.6bn. It has secured orders worth INR1.6bn from ICI-C&C Mainpuri forsupply, erection, and commissioning of 765KV S/C portion of the 192km Mainpuri-Bara transmission line. It has also bagged a contract worth INR1.5bn from CairnIndia for turnkey construction of Thumbli water pipeline project. The companyhas received orders worth INR1.3bn from GAIL (India) for a pipeline replacementproject for the Krishna-Godavri Basin and several other contracts worth overINR2.2bn in the transmission segment

United Breweries has concluded the acquisition of brewery assets - land,building, plant, machinery etc - of Pacific Spirits, located at Shahjahanpur, district

Alwar, Rajasthan, at a negotiated consideration of INR1.1bn. It has taken thisstep, pursuant to completion of various formalities, with regard to endorsement ofstatutory licenses in the name of United Breweries.

Larsen &Toubro has secured a turnkey order for setting up a 2x660MWsupercritical thermal power project at Shree Singaji TPP (Stage-II), on a completeengineering-procurement-construction basis, from state utility: Madhya PradeshPower Generating Company. The contract is valued over INR51bn, and theproject order covers design, engineering, manufacture, supply, erection, andcommissioning of two coal-fired thermal units of 660MW each, with supercriticalparameters. The project is located near village Dongalia in the Khandwa districtof Madhya Pradesh.

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T IQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 8 September 201FROM THE RESEARCH DESK

Sectoral indices Closing % Chg % MTD % YTD

BSE Auto 17,573 (0.7) 1.6 43.4

BSE Bank 18,298 (0.3) 1.6 40.7

BSE Cap Goods 15,421 0.9 3.4 50.2

BSE Cons dur 9,660 0.2 5.2 65.9

BSE FMCG 7,359 (0.3) (0.6) 12.1

BSE IT 10,405 0.5 3.2 14.6BSE Health 13,760 0.2 3.0 38.1

BSE Metal 12,534 0.7 2.3 25.8

BSE Oil 11,456 0.3 2.4 29.7

BSE Power 2,084 0.0 2.1 22.5

BSE PSU 8,298 0.4 2.5 40.4

BSE Realty 1,765 1.2 2.2 23.2

BSE TECK 5,792 0.2 3.5 14.7

Nifty OutperformersPrice % Chg % MTD % YTD

Nmdc Ltd 186 5.3 9.6 30.9

Dlf Ltd 175 4.7 (1.0) 5.2

Jindal Steel & Power Ltd 234 2.4 0.5 (10.3)

Asian Paints Ltd 647 2.3 3.7 32.1

Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd 1,078 1.9 3.9 48.1

Bajaj Auto Ltd 2,340 1.6 3.6 22.4

Larsen & Toubro Ltd 1,613 1.4 5.6 50.7

Delivery SpikeCompany Volume Spike (%) Chg (%

Indian Hotels 3,438,882 1126% 3.93

Adani 571,875 626% (0.89

NMDC 5,152,050 329% 5.27

Nationalum 4,330,882 318% 8.65

ONGC 2,449,826 163% 1.38

Bank of India 904,812 153% (1.85GMR Infra 18,179,911 89% (1.21

SBI 822,273 80% 1.19

HDFC 2,558,082 49% (2.33

Dr Reddy 124,152 47% (0.70

Bulk Deals

Date Security Name Client Name Buy/Sell Qty Price

5-Sep-14 Info Edge (India) Limited Small Cap World Fund Inc SELL 1,678,948.00 785.00

5-Sep-14 Info Edge (India) Limited Fidelity Investment Trust Fidelity Intnl Discovery Fund BUY 1,584,246.00 784.98

5-Sep-14 Jaiprakash Associates Lim Shaastra Securities Trading Private Limited SELL 13,765,540.00 34.21

5-Sep-14 Jaiprakash Associates Lim Shaastra Securities Trading Private Limited BUY 13,765,540.00 34.17

5-Sep-14 VIPUL Wdc Ventures Limited SELL 17,937,680.00 18.65

5-Sep-14 VIPUL Haridarshan Sales Private Limited BUY 12,000,000.00 18.65

5-Sep-14 VIPUL Sterling Agro Industries Limited BUY 5,937,680.00 18.65

5-Sep-14 ARORAFIB Par Solar Private Limited BUY 7,400,000.00 34.50

5-Sep-14 SKS Microfinance Ltd Morgan Stanley Asia (Singapore) Pte BUY 647,275.00 325.03

5-Sep-14 Indiabull Infra Power Ltd Laurel Energetics Private Limited BUY 30,571,519.00 4.65

5-Sep-14 Indiabull Infra Power Ltd Punarvasu Builders And Developers Private Limited SELL 28,801,519.00 4.65

5-Sep-14 Orient Refractories Ltd M/S Malabar India Fund Limited BUY 1,070,000.00 92.99

5-Sep-14 ERAINFRA Citigroup Global Markets Mauritius Private Limited SELL 4,800,386.00 17.20

5-Sep-14 ERAINFRA Nomura Singapore Limited BUY 4,800,386.00 17.20

Nifty UnderperformersPrice % Chg % MTD % YTD

United Spirits Ltd 2,283 (4.6) (4.8) (12.5

Housing Development Finance 1,055 (2.3) (1.8) 32.8

Coal India Ltd 370 (2.3) 4.0 27.7

Hero Motocorp Ltd 2,762 (2.2) 6.0 33.1

Bharat Heavy Electricals 223 (1.9) (7.5) 25.9

Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd 689 (1.7) (0.8) 98.0

Icici Bank Ltd 1,547 (1.6) (0.6) 40.8

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Commodities Update

Commodities Last % Chg % MTD % YTD

Gold ($/Ounce) 1,268 (0.1) (1.6) 5.1

Crude Oil ($/Bl) 93 0.0 (2.8) (0.7

Aluminium ($/t) 2,066 (0.9) (1.0) 17.7

Copper ($/t) 6,992 0.6 (0.2) (5.2

Zinc ($/t) 2,384 (0.3) 1.0 16.1

Lead ($/t) 2,189 (1.1) (2.2) (0.1

Nickel ($/t) 19,494 0.9 4.1 40.9

Economy, Money & Banking

Forex Rate Last % Chg % MTD % YTD

INR~USD 60.4 (0.1) 0.2 2.3

INR~EUR 78.3 1.2 2.0 8.7

INR~GBP 98.5 0.8 1.9 3.6

Bond Market Last Chg (bps) MTD (bps) YTD (bps)

10 Year Bond 8.5 - (4) (30)

Interbank call 8.5 200 600 (25)

Nifty Nifty P/E Nifty P/B

Source: Bloomberg

Sensex FII Provisional Flows (INRcr) DII Provisional Flows (INRcr)

Source: Bloomberg

INR/USD Gold and silver prices Crude prices

Source: Bloomberg

Inflation vs 10 year yield Nifty premium/discount NSE volatility index (%)

Source: Bloomberg

-1,500

-750

0

750

1,500

Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14

y

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000


41.8 38.4

25.8

36.429.8

0

10

20

30

40

50

01-Sep 02-Sep 03-Sep 04-Sep 05-Sep

12

13

14

15

8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug 5-Sep

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14

Inf lat ion (%) 10 Y r Y iel d (%)

4200

5200

6200

7200

8200

Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14

12

14

16

18

20

22

24


2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0


14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

28000


0

500

1000

1500

2000


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Gold (LHS) Silver (RHS)

80

90

100

110


8/11/2019 Ant-CG



COMPANY UPDATE

Crompton Greaves LimitedConsumer business: A jewel in its crownCrompton Greaves is a leading player in the consumer electrical goodsindustry. It is market leader in fans, third largest in lighting, market leader in

domestic pumps, and has a growing consumer appliances business. Theconsumer segment delivered above industry growth, with a five-year revenueCAGR of 17% as against Havells India's 16.5% and Bajaj Electricals' 18.3%The segment has enjoyed healthy margins between 10.7% and 14.5% overthe past five years. The company has benefitted from strong brand equityand efficient sourcing, while expenses on advertisement have remained atminimal levels. The business has significant scope for growth, aided by betterdistribution network and product expansion strategy, while marginexpansion is likely to be supported by penetration into the premium segmentof the market. Its business model is extremely asset light, aided by rationaoutsourcing; and the company requires minimal amount of capital for itsgrowth aspirations. The business segment delivered a RoCE of 206% duringFY14. In our recent management interaction, it categorically stated that thebenefits of de-merger would explicitly go to existing shareholders.

Consumer business: Value in disguise

CRG is numero uno player in fans and one of top three players in the lighting market. Ihas delivered consistent growth, with a 17% CAGR over the last six years, which is higherthan Havells' standalone growth of 15% over the same period. It may be noted that thegrowth in CRG was led by strong brand equity, despite being weaker in distribution,while its peer's strategy has been to grow on the back of a strong advertisement pushand investments in its distribution network. CRG's business model is based on a moresustainable platform and has significant scope for growth, aided by increased thrust ondistribution and a product expansion strategy. The company has taken steps to expand

its reach and cover end consumer sales points, rationalise channel networks, and deploylean manufacturing initiatives. In FY14 itself, 11,150 new retailers and 194 distributorswere added to strengthen the channel transformation business.

Its existing positioning is mainly in the economy segment, while Havells' forte lies in thepremium product segment. In our view, the company has scope to expand margins bymoving up the value chain through penetration into the premium segment. The companyis now focusing on increasing product offering in the premium segment.

CRG business model is extremely asset light vis-à-vis its peers. Average asset turnover for theconsumer business for the past six years is ~5x Havells and over 1.5x Bajaj Electricals' asseturnover. The company requires minimal amount of capital for its growth aspirations and hasdelivered significantly better RoCE than that of Havells and Bajaj Electricals' consumer business

We believe CRG's consumer business is the best in the industry and should command premiumvaluations. At 20x FY16e earnings, the consumer business is worth INR120 per share.

Maintain Buy with a target price of INR296 per share

We expect CRG's standalone revenues to grow at 12.7% CAGR over FY14-16e. Earnings wilgrow at 23% CAGR over the same period. Its overseas business is likely to deliver a PAT ofEUR8m in FY16e, from a loss of EUR33m and EUR5.3m in FY14 and FY15e, respectivelyConsolidated EPS is expected to grow to INR9.3 and INR13.5 in FY15e and FY16e, respectively

Our SoTP-based target price of INR296 per share is based on 20x FY16e earnings forthe domestic business (INR250 per share), 12x EV/EBITDA for its overseas business(INR35 per share), and 3x P/BV for Avantha Power (INR11 per share). It continues to

remain one of our top picks.

Current Reco : BUY

Previous Reco : BUY

CMP : INR218

Target Price : INR296

Potential Return : 36%

Dhirendra Tiwari+91 22 4031 [email protected]

Market dataSensex : 27027

Sector : Industrial

Market Cap (INRbn) : 136.6

Market Cap (USDbn) : 2.26

O/S Shares (m) : 626.7

52-wk HI/LO (INR) : 220/83

Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 7,153

Bloomberg : CRG IN

Returns (%)1m 3m 6m 12m

Absolute 12 4 61 159

Relative 7 (3) 27 82

Source: Bloomberg

Shareholding pattern

Promoters : 43%FII : 20%

DII : 22%

Others : 15%

Source: Bloomberg

ValuationFY14 FY15e FY16e

EPS (INR) 3.9 9.3 13.5PE (x) 42.1 23.6 16.1

P/BV (x) 2.8 3.8 3.1

EV/EBITDA (x) 17.1 14.0 10.1

Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.3

Source: Bloomberg

Price performance vs Nifty

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

90

150

210

270


Crompton NIFTY

Deepak Narnolia+91 22 4031 [email protected]

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Performance of key consumer durable players (INRm)Crompton Greaves FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e CAGR

(FY08-14

Consumer division sales 11,178 13,219 16,120 20,212 21,336 25,927 28,471 32,742 39,290 17%

Growth (%) 17.4 18.3 21.9 25.4 5.6 21.5 9.8 15.0 20.0

Segment EBIT 1,208 1,463 2,299 2,928 2,629 2,781 3,375 4,093 5,108 19%

Margin (%) 10.8 11.1 14.3 14.5 12.3 10.7 11.9 12.5 13.0

Capital employed 877 559 510 806 920 1,103 1,212 1,333 1,467Segmental RoCE (%) 137.7 261.7 450.7 363.3 285.7 252.1 278.5 307.0 348.3

Operating RoCE (%) 96.7 217.0 368.0 303.7 245.3 207.4 206.0 266.2 304.9

Asset turnover 12.7 23.6 31.6 25.1 23.2 23.5 23.5 24.6 26.8

Havells India

Standalone sales 20,556 21,983 24,736 28,817 36,156 42,250 47,197 53,117 62,100 15%

Growth (%) 32.9 6.9 12.5 16.5 25.5 16.9 11.7 12.5 16.9

EBIT 1,917 1,922 3,021 3,290 4,182 4,857 6,137 6,950 8,215 21%

Margin (%) 9.3 8.7 12.2 11.4 11.6 11.5 13.0 13.1 13.2

Capital employed 7,164 10,193 12,780 14,966 17,610 22,230 24,403 28,398 33,665

Segmental RoCE (%) 34.9 46.4 51.7 51.9 48.7 52.6 51.7 53.5 54.2

Operating RoCE (%) 36.4 38.9 42.4 42.5 48.4 51.4 51.0 67.2 71.5

Asset turnover 4.2 4.6 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.6 4.2 5.5 5.8Bajaj Electricals

Consumer durable sales 10,216 12,444 14,903 19,080 22,653 26,850 28,781 19%

Growth (%) 30.0 21.8 19.8 28.0 18.7 18.5 7.2

EBIT 933 1,081 1,530 1,768 2,034 2,329 1,963 13%

Margin (%) 9.1 8.7 10.3 9.3 9.0 8.7 6.8

Capital employed 819.0 1,161.0 1,202.0 1,424.0 2,233.0 2,491.0 1,120.0

Segmental RoCE (%) 113.9 93.1 127.3 124.2 91.1 93.5 175.3

Operating RoCE (%) 114.1 94.1 127.4 123.2 91.3 89.2 177.2

Asset turnover 12.5 10.7 12.4 13.4 10.1 10.8 25.7

Source: Company, Antique

Fans: Aggressive new product launches and increased distribution network aids growthNew product sales accounted for 30% of the business' topline, supporting a growth of ove15% versus a market growth of 10%, resulting in a 3.3 percentage point gain in markeshare to 27%. Growth in modern retail sales stood at 28%, outpacing conventional businessThe company is looking to increase its retail reach to 60-70% over the next three-to-five yearsfrom 40% at present. In FY14, CRG became the first manufacturing enterprise to cross INR10min fan sales. The second Baddi plant for manufacturing fans is now fully operational and isproducing 1m units per year.

Lighting

CRG's lighting business holds the #3 position in the overall Indian market, with leadership in highintensity discharge lamps used for public lighting, industrial lighting, and floodlighting. The divisiongrew over 17% in FY14 versus an overall industry growth of 12% thereby improving its marke

share. New products accounted for 17% of the total sale of lighting and 24% of luminaires. Thebusiness has done well in selling LED lightings and CFL also. CRG growth in LED-based lightingproducts is four times that of the market while CFL (direct fit) lighting has grown by 24%.

Pumps: Gaining share despite tough market conditions

CRG managed to stay flat in the pumps business during FY14, gaining a 50bps marketshare to 13.6%, despite tough market conditions. The overall market saw a 10% fall due toraised water tables and increased water flows, which reduced the need for additionapumping, especially for agricultural and rural use.

Appliances

This business is relatively small and achieved net sales of INR1.8bn in FY14. It supplies arange of domestic appliances in four major product categories: water heater/geysers, smal

appliances, power solutions, and air coolers/heaters.

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Consumer segment revenues to grow at 17.5% CAGR Expect EBIT margins to improve

Source: Company, Antique Source: Company, Antique

Consumer segment break-up (INRbn) CRG maintains strong growth in lighting (Growth %)


Numero uno fan manufacturer with 27% market shareGrowth (%) Market leader in domestic pumps (Growth %)


17.5

13.3

22.0

25.4

5.6

21.5

9.8

15.0

20.0

-

5,000

10,000

15,00020,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14FY15eFY16e

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Consumer Products (INRm) YoY Grow th (RHS)

10.4 11.1

14.3 14.5

12.3

10.711.9

12.5 13.0

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14FY15eFY16e

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

Consumer Products (INRm) EBIT margin (%) -RHS

12.85

9.01

5.79

18.17 Fans

Light

Pumps

Appliances

16 17

13

17

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1618

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

CRG Industry

31

2

22

15

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

CRG Industry

29

(4)

17

1

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14

Pumps Industry

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Consolidated assumptionsFY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15e FY16e CAGR

(FY14-16e)

Revenue (INRm)

Power Systems - Standalone 25,103 25,542 27,474 27,247 28,235 29,647 33,797 9.4

Consumer Products 16,120 20,212 21,336 25,927 28,471 32,742 39,290 17.5

Industrial Systems 11,744 14,066 15,201 14,994 14,889 15,633 17,978 9.9

Others 250 171 1,299 3,768 3,847 4,039 4,645 9.9Total sales 53,216 59,991 65,310 71,936 75,442 82,061 95,711 12.6

Less inter segment sales (376) (477) (456) (584) (547) (574) (603)

Standalone 52,840 59,515 64,854 71,352 74,895 81,487 95,108 12.7

CG Global 38,569 40,536 47,632 49,592 59,911 63,227 68,918 7.3

- in Euro mn 571 673 723 708 740 811 884

YoY % (9.3) 17.8 7.3 (2.1) 4.6 9.5 9.0

Consoldiated Sales 91,409 100,051 112,486 120,944 134,806 144,714 164,026 10.3

Revenues ( % YoY)

Power Systems - Standalone 12.9 1.8 7.6 (0.8) 3.6 5.0 14.0

Consumer Products 21.9 25.4 5.6 21.5 9.8 15.0 20.0

Industrial Systems 11.3 19.8 8.1 (1.4) (0.7) 5.0 15.0

Others (38.2) (31.5) 659.6 190.1 2.1 5.0 15.0Standalone 14.6 12.6 9.0 10.0 5.0 8.8 16.7

CG Global (6.6) 5.1 17.5 4.1 20.8 5.5 9.0

Consoldiated Sales 4.6 9.5 12.4 7.5 11.5 7.4 13.3

EBIT (INR m) incl Other Inc

Power Systems - Standalone 4,622 4,602 3,198 2,306 2,585 3,113 3,887 22.6

Consumer Products 2,299 2,928 2,629 2,781 3,375 4,093 5,108 23.0

Industrial Systems 2,600 2,626 2,254 2,130 1,529 1,720 2,247 21.2

Digital 10 30 (79) 106 19 323 232 249.6

Total 9,530 10,185 8,001 7,323 7,508 9,248 11,474 23.6

Unallocable exp 786 875 1,197 1,566 606 1,003 1,058

Standalone EBIT 8,744 9,310 6,804 5,757 6,902 8,245 10,416 22.8

CG Global 3,730 3,333 (846) (3,200) (989) 569 1,992 nm

Consolidated EBIT (INR m) 12,475 12,643 5,957 2,556 5,914 8,814 12,408 44.8

EBIT Margins (%)

Power Systems - Standalone 18.4 18.0 11.6 8.5 9.2 10.5 11.5

Consumer Products 14.3 14.5 12.3 10.7 11.9 12.5 13.0

Industrial Systems 22.1 18.7 14.8 14.2 10.3 11.0 12.5

Standalone 16.5 15.6 10.5 8.1 9.2 10.1 11.0

CG Global 9.7 8.2 (1.8) (6.5) (1.7) 0.9 2.9

Consolidated 13.6 12.6 5.3 2.1 4.4 6.1 7.6

EBIDTA %

Standalone 16.2 15.7 11.1 8.3 8.9 10.3 11.1

Subsidiaries 10.9 10.1 1.7 (2.1) 0.3 3.4 5.3Consolidated 14.0 13.4 7.1 3.2 5.1 7.3 8.7

PAT (INR mn)

Standalone 5,768 6,943 5,049 4,457 5,209 6,211 7,851 22.8

Subsidiaries 2,479 2,325 (1,315) (2,530) (2,766) (413) 623 nm

Consolidated 8,247 9,268 3,733 1,926 2,443 5,798 8,474 86.3

EPS (NR/Share)

Standalone 9.0 10.8 7.9 6.9 8.3 9.9 12.5 22.8

Subsidiaries 3.9 3.6 (2.1) (3.9) (4.4) (0.7) 1.0 nm

Consolidated 12.9 14.4 5.8 3.0 3.9 9.3 13.5 86.3


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Financials

Profit and loss account (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

Revenue 112,486 120,944 134,806 144,714 164,026

Expenses 104,449 117,113 127,986 134,122 149,801

EBITDA 8,036 3,831 6,820 10,592 14,225

Depreciation 2,603 2,029 2,621 2,734 2,923EBIT 5,433 1,802 4,199 7,858 11,302

Interest expense 463 709 967 1,187 1,213

Other income 524 754 1,715 956 1,106

EO income - (1,207) - - -

Profit before tax 5,494 640 4,947 7,627 11,195

Taxes incl deferred taxation 1,821 1,009 2,361 1,907 2,799

Adjusted PAT 3,733 1,926 2,443 5,798 8,474

Reported PAT 3,733 (362) 2,443 5,798 8,474

Recurring EPS (INR) 5.8 3.0 3.9 9.3 13.5

Balance sheet (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

Share Capital 1,283 1,283 1,254 1,254 1,254Reserves & Surplus 34,826 34,332 35,192 34,972 42,965

Networth 36,109 35,615 36,446 36,225 44,218

Debt 9,849 18,515 21,931 23,232 25,525

Deffered tax assets/(liabilities) (122) (1,681) (532) (486) (486)

Minority interest 157 95 118 196 274

Capital Employed 45,992 52,544 57,963 59,167 69,530

Gross Fixed Assets 38,595 44,327 47,644 45,384 48,444

Accumulated Depreciation 23,005 24,726 26,824 28,891 31,815

Net Assets 15,591 19,601 20,820 16,492 16,629

Capital work in progress 1,097 1,271 2,183 1,552 1,552

Goodwill on consolidation 5,882 9,792 11,588 11,588 11,588

Investments 7,864 7,908 2,989 7,313 12,860

Current Assets, Loans & Advances

Inventories 12,233 16,367 17,713 18,896 21,769

Sundry Debtors 31,432 31,604 35,913 39,031 44,208

Cash and Bank Balance 4,976 5,834 8,150 7,030 8,062

Loan & advances and others 6,703 6,002 8,392 9,056 10,039

Current Liabilities & Provisions

Creditors 21,076 24,618 27,737 29,322 32,534

Other liabilities & provisions 19,105 21,216 22,049 22,470 24,643

Net Current Assets 15,162 13,972 20,382 22,222 26,901

Application of Funds 45,596 52,543 57,963 59,167 69,530

Per share data Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

No. of shares (m) 642 642 627 627 627

BVPS (INR) 56.3 55.5 58.2 57.8 70.6

CEPS (INR) 9.9 6.2 8.1 13.6 18.2

DPS(INR) 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6


Cash flow statement (INRm) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

EBT 5,494 1,847 4,947 7,627 11,195

Depreciation & amortisation 2,603 2,029 2,621 2,734 2,923

Interest expense 463 709 967 1,187 1,213

(Inc)/Dec in working capital (2,311) 2,048 (3,094) (3,959) (3,647Tax paid 2,494 2,177 1,212 1,861 2,799

CF from operating activities 3,756 4,456 4,228 5,729 8,885

EO Income (as reported) - (1,207) - -

CF from ope. incl. EO items 3,756 3,249 4,228 5,729 8,885

Capital expenditure (5,809) (10,172) (6,550) 2,225 (3,060

(Purchase) /Sale of Investments (1,064) 6 4,919 (4,324) (5,547

CF from investing activities (6,873) (10,166) (1,631) (2,099) (8,607

Inc/(Dec) in share capital 722 175 (1,462) (5,611) (0

Inc/(Dec) in debt 5,894 8,666 3,416 1,301 2,293

Dividends & Interest paid 1,507 1,009 1,260 1,517 1,617

CF from financing activities 5,109 7,832 694 (5,827) 676

Net cash flow 1,992 915 3,292 (2,197) 954

Opening balance 2,984 4,977 5,834 8,150 7,030Closing balance 2,984 4,977 5,834 8,150 7,030

Growth indicators (%) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

Revenue 12 8 11 7 13

EBITDA (40) (52) 78 55 34

PAT (60) (48) 27 137 46

EPS (60) (48) 30 137 46

Valuation (x) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

P/E 23.0 31.2 42.1 23.6 16.1

P/BV 2.4 1.7 2.8 3.8 3.1EV/EBITDA 10.7 17.7 17.1 14.0 10.1

EV/Sales 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9

Financial ratios Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

RoE (%) 10.3 5.4 6.7 16.0 19.2

Roce (%) 8.9 2.9 5.1 11.3 13.5

Debt/Equity (x) (0.0) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2

EBIT/ Interest (x) 11.7 2.5 4.3 6.6 9.3

Margins (%) Year ended 31 Mar 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e

EBITDA 7.1 3.2 5.1 7.3 8.7EBIT 4.8 1.5 3.1 5.4 6.9

PAT 3.3 1.6 1.8 4.0 5.2

Source: Company Antique

8/11/2019 Ant-CG


8/11/2019 Ant-CG



Valuation GuideCompany Reco C M P T P Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%

(INR) (INR) (%) ( INRbn) ( USDbn ) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY15 FY15 FY15 1m 12m

MEDIA

Den Networks BUY 165 220 33 29 0.5 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 8.3 13.4 47.9 19.8 12.3 8.1 5.6 3.5 1.5 7.4 7.7 (20) 4

Dish TV India BUY 55 70 28 58 1.0 (0.9) 1.3 3.8 (2.0) 1.3 3.6 (27.6) 43.6 15.2 12.3 8.1 6.4 (32.0) nm 16.5 (8) 30

Hathway Cable BUY 294 350 19 45 0.7 0.14 1.35 2.23 1.0 9.5 15.6 293.7 31.1 18.8 14.3 8.4 6.1 3.3 10.0 13.7 (8) 7

Just Dial Ltd HOLD 1,721 1,650 (4) 121 2.0 1.21 1.33 2.08 17.2 18.9 29.6 99.9 91.1 58.1 80.3 71.8 43.4 18.6 20.4 20.7 (7) 144

Sun TV Network BUY 362 485 34 143 2.4 7.5 8.9 10.6 19.2 22.6 26.8 18.9 16.0 13.5 11.7 9.8 8.3 4.0 25.1 33.1 (13) (10

Zee Ent HOLD 281 280 (0) 270 4.5 8.9 10.1 11.5 9.3 10.5 11.9 30.2 26.7 23.6 21.9 20.7 17.9 4.9 18.3 19.9 (1) 25

METALS & MINING

Hindalco Industries SELL 168 147 (12) 346 5.7 25.7 35.9 32.9 12.5 17.4 15.9 13.5 9.6 10.5 10.4 8.4 7.0 0.9 8.7 5.9 (14) 55

Hindustan Zinc BUY 172 182 6 725 12.0 69.7 70.4 74.8 16.5 16.7 17.7 10.4 10.3 9.7 6.8 5.9 4.9 1.7 17.6 42.9 4 38

JSW Steel HOLD 1,310 1,276 (3) 317 5.2 21.6 28.0 32.0 89.6 115.9 132.4 14.6 11.3 9.9 7.7 6.6 6.1 1.3 12.5 7.8 10 132

SAIL HOLD 84 85 1 348 5.8 16.6 30.0 33.9 4.0 7.3 8.2 21.0 11.6 10.3 13.9 10.2 8.6 0.8 6.9 4.9 (3) 76

TATA Steel BUY 513 596 16 499 8.3 36.2 41.6 62.7 37.3 42.9 64.5 13.8 12.0 8.0 7.7 7.2 6.4 1.0 9.2 5.2 (9) 78

NMDC BUY 186 194 5 737 12.2 63.7 75.3 83.8 16.1 19.0 21.1 11.6 9.8 8.8 7.0 5.9 5.2 2.2 23.7 45.9 7 53

Nalco BUY 63 61 (4) 163 2.7 6.9 9.1 9.1 2.7 3.5 3.5 23.6 18.0 17.9 11.8 9.1 8.1 1.3 7.3 7.2 6 88

OIL & GAS

BPCL BUY 689 700 2 498 8.2 36.5 31.0 34.3 55.7 47.3 52.3 12.4 14.6 13.2 7.3 7.8 7.5 2.1 14.3 11.8 16 140

Cairn India HOLD 332 350 5 622 10.3 124.3 110.5 116.9 65.9 57.8 60.9 5.0 5.7 5.4 4.4 4.5 3.9 1.0 21.9 19.8 3 (1

GAIL India HOLD 452 415 (8) 573 9.5 41.4 40.4 41.8 32.6 31.9 33.0 13.8 14.2 13.7 9.7 10.3 9.0 2.0 13.8 12.3 7 52

Gujarat State Petro BUY 87 100 16 49 0.8 4.2 4.5 5.0 7.4 8.0 8.9 11.6 10.8 9.7 6.0 5.8 5.4 1.3 12.3 15.4 0 69

HPCL BUY 475 500 5 161 2.7 14.4 14.2 16.7 42.3 42.0 49.2 11.2 11.3 9.6 8.8 7.5 6.7 1.0 5.8 2.1 14 173

Indian Oil Corp BUY 387 450 16 941 15.6 57.8 76.7 91.8 24.4 32.4 38.7 15.9 12.0 10.0 11.3 9.0 6.6 1.3 10.6 6.4 15 74

Indraprastha Gas BUY 392 450 15 55 0.9 3.6 4.1 4.5 25.7 29.6 31.9 15.2 13.3 12.3 7.1 7.0 6.2 2.7 20.4 23.8 3 51

MRPL SELL 64 53 (18) 112 1.9 6.0 1.8 9.5 3.4 1.1 5.4 18.7 61.1 11.9 9.7 30.2 7.8 1.6 2.6 1.2 (3) 107

Oil India BUY 644 753 17 387 6.4 28.8 31.5 46.6 48.0 52.4 77.5 13.4 12.3 8.3 9.2 7.6 5.0 1.7 14.0 11.1 13 49

ONGC BUY 444 501 13 3,795 62.8 226.4 242.6 326.7 31.7 33.8 43.5 14.0 13.1 10.2 8.4 7.7 5.9 2.5 16.2 19.0 9 64

Petronet LNG HOLD 190 170 (10) 142 2.4 7.1 7.5 7.5 9.5 10.0 10.0 20.0 19.0 18.9 11.0 10.3 9.9 2.6 13.6 13.6 10 61

Reliance Industries HOLD 1,026 950 (7) 3,317 54.9 224.9 253.4 271.6 69.6 78.4 84.0 14.7 13.1 12.2 12.4 11.5 10.7 1.4 11.5 7.5 4 19

PHARMACEUTICALS

Cipla BUY 558 515 (8) 448 7.4 12.7 15.0 20.0 15.9 18.7 24.9 35.2 29.8 22.4 22.5 19.5 15.0 4.0 14.1 11.7 27 33

Dr Reddy's BUY 2,980 3470 16 507 8.4 18.7 24.8 29.5 109.9 145.7 173.5 27.1 20.5 17.2 16.9 13.8 11.5 5.1 24.9 18.7 7 30

Lupin BUY 1,328 1380 4 596 9.9 17.5 25.5 28.1 39.0 57.0 62.7 34.0 23.3 21.2 19.8 14.1 12.9 6.6 31.9 28.9 13 55

Sun Pharma BUY 858 917 7 1,777 29.4 57.2 66.6 86.6 27.6 32.2 36.7 31.1 26.7 23.4 23.9 19.6 14.4 7.7 28.7 30.5 11 65

Aurobindo SELL 830 623 (25) 242 4.0 11.7 14.2 15.2 46.8 48.8 51.9 17.7 17.0 16.0 13.0 11.9 10.9 4.8 32.2 17.3 13 340

Cadila Health BUY 1,265 1439 14 259 4.3 8.8 11.2 14.7 41.7 54.8 72.0 30.3 23.1 17.6 21.8 16.6 12.8 6.0 27.3 17.9 17 96

Strides BUY 687 880 28 41 0.7 0.9 2.3 3.4 16.4 39.2 57.0 28.6 11.9 8.2 18.2 13.2 8.8 3.1 21.3 13.4 5 75

Glenmark HOLD 775 680 (12) 210 3.5 7.3 9.7 12.9 25.6 36.4 48.3 30.3 21.3 16.1 18.4 14.3 11.2 5.7 29.8 23.4 15 51

Biocon HOLD 498 458 (8) 100 1.6 4.1 4.9 6.1 20.5 24.4 30.5 24.3 20.4 16.3 14.6 12.0 9.2 2.9 15.4 9.8 8 44

Unichem BUY 228 228 (0) 21 0.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 13.0 15.8 20.7 17.6 14.4 11.0 11.6 9.9 7.7 2.3 16.0 13.6 8 54

SHIPPING AND LOGISTICS

Container Corp. HOLD 1,262 1,283 2 246 4.1 10.1 11.5 13.9 51.7 58.7 71.3 24.4 21.5 17.7 18.4 15.4 12.3 3.1 14.5 20.9 (1) 79

GE Shipping HOLD 397 372 (6) 60 1.0 4.6 5.7 7.4 30.8 38.1 48.9 12.9 10.4 8.1 6.1 5.4 4.6 0.8 6.8 7.6 10 55

Adani Port and SEZ HOLD 290 232 (20) 601 9.9 20.1 21.5 26.9 9.6 10.3 12.9 30.1 28.1 22.5 24.3 18.9 15.7 5.8 20.1 16.5 9 137

Gujarat Pipavav HOLD 164 81 (51) 79 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.3 3.6 4.4 4.8 45.2 37.7 34.5 31.2 27.8 22.7 5.4 14.3 13.9 12 273

UR: Under Review contd.

8/11/2019 Ant-CG



Company Reco C M P T P Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) NNPA Ratio (%) P/AdjBV (x) RoE (%) RoA (%) Absolute (%


FINANCIALS

Axis Bank BUY 416 440 6 981 16.2 62.2 74.1 87.2 132.3 157.8 185.5 3.1 2.6 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 17.9 1.8 6 124

Bank of Baroda BUY 885 1,007 14 380 6.3 45.4 50.1 55.7 105.4 116.2 129.3 8.4 7.6 6.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.1 13.2 0.7 (3) 76

Bank of India HOLD 286 268 (6) 184 3.0 27.3 34.2 42.7 42.4 53.2 66.4 6.7 5.4 4.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 0.7 10.9 0.6 2 97

Canara Bank HOLD 386 415 7 178 2.9 24.4 33.3 42.2 52.9 72.1 91.5 7.3 5.4 4.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 0.7 10.7 0.6 (5) 83

Federal Bank BUY 125 158 27 107 1.8 8 11 13 9.8 12.5 15.6 12.7 10.0 8.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 1.4 13.6 1.3 4 127

HDFC HOLD 1,055 904 (14) 1654 27.4 54.4 63.4 76.5 34.9 40.6 49.0 30.3 26.0 21.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 5.2 21.0 2.9 1 41

HDFC Bank HOLD 848 780 (8) 2047 33.9 84.8 106.8 135.6 35.5 44.5 56.5 23.9 19.1 15.0 0.3 0.2 0.2 4.0 22.4 2.0 3 39

ICICI Bank BUY 1,547 1,575 2 1790 29.6 98.1 111.5 130.2 84.5 95.9 112.1 18.3 16.1 13.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.3 13.7 1.7 4 73

IndusInd Bank HOLD 613 550 (10) 324 5.4 14.1 18.1 22.3 26.8 34.4 42.3 22.9 17.8 14.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.1 18.4 1.9 10 54

Kotak Mahindra HOLD 1,078 849 (21) 831 13.8 15.0 18.4 22.1 19.5 23.9 28.7 55.3 45.2 37.5 0.8 0.9 1.1 6.2 14.0 1.9 15 63

PNB BUY 936 1,085 16 339 5.6 33.4 47.6 58.7 92.3 131.5 162.1 10.1 7.1 5.8 2.8 2.8 2.5 1.1 12.5 0.8 (4) 111

SBI BUY 2,516 3,045 21 1878 31.1 108.9 143.3 218.5 145.9 192.0 292.7 17.2 13.1 8.6 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 11.5 0.7 2 54

Union Bank BUY 209 232 11 131 2.2 17.0 22.4 26.7 26.9 35.5 42.3 7.7 5.9 4.9 2.3 2.4 2.5 0.9 12.5 0.6 2 88

YES Bank BUY 612 653 7 254 4.2 16.2 18.3 21.1 44.9 50.7 58.4 13.6 12.1 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 23.1 1.5 12 113

Bajaj Auto Fin BUY 2,442 2,333 (4) 122 2.0 7.2 8.9 10.6 144.5 178.3 212.4 16.9 13.7 11.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 2.6 20.2 3.2 11 129

Chola Invst & Fin. HOLD 425 394 (7) 61 1.0 3.6 4.7 5.7 25.4 30.2 36.4 16.7 14.1 11.7 0.8 1.1 1.3 2.1 16.7 2.0 6 100

Gruh Finance HOLD 200 196 (2) 73 1.2 1.8 2.3 2.9 9.8 6.4 8.0 20.4 31.3 24.9 - - - 9.5 34.0 3.5 (3) 85

LIC Housing Fin BUY 320 310 (3) 161 2.7 13.2 14.5 18.4 26.1 28.7 36.5 12.2 11.1 8.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.3 17.8 1.4 8 92

M&M Fin. HOLD 280 256 (9) 159 2.6 8.9 9.9 12.9 15.8 17.6 23.0 17.8 15.9 12.2 1.9 2.2 2.5 3.1 18.1 2.9 13 6

Manappuram BUY 28 26 (6) 23 0.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.7 2.4 2.8 10.3 11.3 10.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 8.0 1.9 25 67Muthoot Finance BUY 191 225 18 76 1.3 7.8 8.3 9.9 21.0 20.9 24.9 9.1 9.1 7.7 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.7 17.6 3.9 8 60

PFC BUY 264 377 43 348 5.8 54.2 63.8 72.9 41.0 49.5 56.4 6.4 5.3 4.7 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.1 21.7 3.1 (1) 122

Repco Home Fin. HOLD 448 391 (13) 28 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.8 17.7 24.0 29.7 25.3 18.7 15.1 0.7 0.7 0.7 3.2 19.6 2.6 0 88

REC HOLD 274 374 36 271 4.5 46.8 54.3 63.3 47.4 56.5 65.6 5.8 4.8 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 23.6 3.5 (10) 51

Shriram Transport HOLD 990 980 (1) 225 3.7 13.6 14.9 18.0 60.0 65.9 79.6 16.5 15.0 12.4 0.5 0.7 1.8 2.3 16.4 2.9 11 98

SKS Microfinance BUY 324 355 9 41 0.7 0.7 2.0 2.3 6.5 16.1 18.6 50.1 20.2 17.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.4 20.1 5.6 16 150

PTC Financial BUY 44 54 24 25 0.4 2.1 3.0 4.4 3.7 5.4 7.8 11.7 8.1 5.6 0 0 0 1.5 19.8 4.1 22 320

UR: Under Review

Valuation GuideCompany Reco C M P T P Return M.Cap M.Cap Net profit (INRbn) EPS (INR) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) Absolute (%


UTILITIES

CESC HOLD 757 501 (34) 95 1.6 6.5 6.7 7.1 39.2 42.6 64.8 19.3 17.8 11.7 11.9 8.9 6.6 1.7 9.6 7.2 10 145

NTPC HOLD 143 141 (1) 1,178 19.5 114.0 103.6 109.6 13.8 12.6 13.3 10.3 11.4 10.8 8.9 8.9 8.7 1.3 11.1 7.8 2 10

Power Grid BUY 134 153 14 703 11.6 45.0 52.1 59.4 8.6 10.0 11.3 15.6 13.5 11.9 11.5 10.5 9.6 1.8 13.5 7.6 2 40

PTC India BUY 88 122 38 26 0.4 3.6 2.6 3.7 8.5 5.9 8.5 10.4 15.0 10.4 6.6 9.7 6.0 1.0 6.7 6.8 5 92

Tata Power HOLD 88 101 15 239 4.0 (2.6) 18.6 19.6 (1.1) 6.9 7.3 (80.7) 12.8 12.2 7.7 6.2 5.7 1.6 12.6 11.6 (9) 26

Coal India BUY 370 442 19 2,339 38.7 151.1 177.4 210.4 23.9 28.1 33.3 15.5 13.2 11.1 11.5 9.5 7.1 4.8 36.3 32.6 3 31

OTHERS

Supreme Industries HOLD 641 592 (8) 81 1.3 2.5 3.2 4.1 22.3 31.5 37.8 28.7 20.4 17.0 14.7 12.3 10.5 5.2 30.3 31.6 9 104

Cera Sanitaryware HOLD 1,698 1,195 (30) 21 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 41.6 55.1 66.4 40.8 30.8 25.6 24.2 18.7 15.5 7.6 27.5 32.2 26 239

Kajaria Ceramics HOLD 670 557 (17) 51 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 15.6 21.3 27.8 42.8 31.4 24.1 18.9 14.9 11.6 8.3 26.4 30.2 5 194

Finolex Industries BUY 304 340 12 38 0.6 1.7 2.4 2.8 13.7 19.3 22.7 22.1 15.7 13.4 12.0 9.2 7.9 4.2 28.4 25.0 12 189

Astral Poly Technik Limited HOLD 826 490 (41) 46 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.6 14.0 20.4 28.8 58.8 40.4 28.7 29.4 23.5 18.0 11.2 31.3 37.2 19 277

HSIL BUY 355 379 7 23 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.3 5.1 11.4 19.5 69.0 31.0 18.2 13.3 10.1 7.9 2.2 7.2 11.4 37 336

8/11/2019 Ant-CG



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