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BUSINESS LINE: India: Tech sector divergence to
continueBusinessline. Chennai:Dec 17, 2000. pg. 1
Abstract (Summary)
* More significant was that the company managed a 30 per cent
growth in revenues and earningsquarter on quarter. With the scale
of operations becoming larger, the focus may be on this aspect, as
itwould be the right indicator of the company's success, or
otherwise in scaling up operations.Profitability may be at levels
similar to the previous quarters. The company's ability to move up
thevalue chain may be neutralised by higher employee costs
(especially as it had a high attrition rate byits standards and
would also have to foot the cost of new manpower yet to be deployed
full scale).Inevitably, other frontline stocks may invite
comparison with Infosys.
* One IT stock where the numbers and its quality would be keenly
awaited is that of SatyamComputers. The stock has been marked down
sharply in the last 3-4 months, though in the pastmonth it has
managed to consolidate at around the Rs 325 level. Perhaps more
than any other ITstock, the earnings announcement of Satyam
Computers may be the closely watched one.
If the July-September quarter was the first one after the launch
of Kaun Banega Crorepati? by its rivalSTAR Plus, this may well be
the quarterin which the magnitude of the impact may become
clearer.Zee has far fewer programmes in the top 20 and top 50 than
at any time in the past as STAR Plus hasmuscled in with good
back-up programming to take advantage of the opening provided by
KBC. Sonyhas also held its ground.
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Jump to indexing (document details)
Full Text
(839 words)Copyright Asia Intelligence Wire from FT Information
Dec 17, 2000
THE next earnings season is creeping up the market and investors
as 2000 rolls over. The corporatesector will start unveiling its
report card for the October-December quarter. The earnings season
willstart at a time when the market has notched some gains in the
last two months.
Most old economy stocks did well and had a good time.
It was a rather muted quarter for the technology sector,
including telecom and media. With the Nasdaqgoing through one of
its worst phases, the technology sector was sidelined. Notably,
however, it didnot suffer declines a la the Nasdaq.
Of equal importance has been the sifting in terms of
differential valuations in the technology sector.Though this
process began some time ago, the trend became pronounced in the
latest quarter. So,what does the October-December quarter hold for
the technology sector?
* The trend of wide divergence between the performances of
various companies in the technologysector is likely to continue. So
far much of the divergence has been sharply focussed in the
second-and third- rung stocks.
* The last quarter was characterised by indifferent performance
by companies such as Mastek,Geometric Software and PSI Data
Systems.
In fact, Geometric issued a profit warning that led to a sharp
fall in its stock price.
* The trend of divergence may well become more pronounced in
this quarter as the medium-scalecompanies try to scale up
operations.
* Among the front-runners, it will be interesting to see if
Infosys Technologies can maintain its rapidgrowth. In the first two
quarters, the company reported very good growth rates compared to
thecorresponding period in 1999-2000.
* More significant was that the company managed a 30 per cent
growth in revenues and earningsquarter on quarter. With the scale
of operations becoming larger, the focus may be on this aspect, as
itwould be the right indicator of the company's success, or
otherwise in scaling up operations.Profitability may be at levels
similar to the previous quarters. The company's ability to move up
thevalue chain may be neutralised by higher employee costs
(especially as it had a high attrition rate byits standards and
would also have to foot the cost of new manpower yet to be deployed
full scale).Inevitably, other frontline stocks may invite
comparison with Infosys.
* One IT stock where the numbers and its quality would be keenly
awaited is that of Satyam
Computers. The stock has been marked down sharply in the last
3-4 months, though in the past monthit has managed to consolidate
at around the Rs 325 level. Perhaps more than any other IT stock,
theearnings announcement of Satyam Computers may be the closely
watched one.
As for the media sector, it is perhaps the first quarter where
there will be a sizeable number ofcompanies putting their earnings
on the table. Quite a few such as Mukta Arts, Balaji Telefilms,
Adlabsand Creative Eye have come out with IPOs. Expect these
companies to come up with good numbersas it would be the first
quarter after listing.
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But the growth rates may be not anywhere near levels that could
be sustained and justify the valuationof many stocks in this
sector.
But the focus is likely to be well and truly on Zee Telefilms.
For some time now the company has beenreporting indifferent
revenues and earnings. And most certainly not of the kind and level
that wouldjustify even its present price earnings multiple of
around 100 times.
There would be concerns over quality also.
If the July-September quarter was the first one after the launch
of Kaun Banega Crorepati? by its rivalSTAR Plus, this may well be
the quarter in which the magnitude of the impact may become
clearer.Zee has far fewer programmes in the top 20 and top 50 than
at any time in the past as STAR Plus hasmuscled in with good
back-up programming to take advantage of the opening provided by
KBC. Sonyhas also held its ground.
An additional factor may well be the problems of Zee's own
competing product - Sawal Dus Crore Ka.Though the stock has
suffered significantly as almost all private sector funds have
moved to pareexposure, the earnings may be watched closely both for
the quantum of performance and quality andthe sustainability of
reported numbers and growth rates.
In the telecom sector, one expects Himachal Futuristic and
Global Tele-Systems to manage goodnumbers, while MTNL may be the
one to watch out for as its share took a beating in 2000. VSNL
hasenjoyed a good run in the market, and if earnings numbers are
impressive, the stock may wellconsolidate.
Overall, in the earnings season, the information technology,
telecom and media sectors may well leadto a further discrimination
in the valuation accorded to various stocks. The surprises -
positive andnegative - may well come from small and mid-sized
companies, though Zee and Satyam Computersbear a close watch.
S. Vaidya Nathan
Indexing (document details)
Companies: Satyam Computers
Publication title: Businessline. Chennai:Dec 17, 2000. pg. 1
Source type: Periodical
ProQuestdocument ID:
65281828
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