Biodiesel Potential

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Figure 2 - Global Energy Demand by Fuel

Source: www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Citizenship/Imports/EnergyOutlook06/slide_3.html

The International Energy Agency (IEA) now forecasts global demand for petroleum toincrease 40% from 81 million barrels per day (bpd) this year to 121 million bpd in 20254.

This demand surge has combined with supply-threatening political uncertainties in theMiddle East as well as natural disasters in the USA' Gulf Coast region, to drive crude oilto prices not seen before.

Global oil prices reached a high of USD78.40 per barrel of light sweet crude on July 14,20065, as shown in Figure 3. Projected oil prices from 2010 to 2030 are shown inFigure 4.

4 International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006, Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis andForecasting, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585, www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

5 www.wikipedia.org
http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Citizenship/Imports/EnergyOutlook06/slide_3.htmlhttp://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Citizenship/Imports/EnergyOutlook06/slide_3.htmlhttp://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Citizenship/Imports/EnergyOutlook06/slide_3.html


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Figure 3: Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX) Monthly Price Chart

Source: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/M

Figure 4: Projected Oil Prices 2010 2030

Source: International Energy Outlook 2006, June 2006, Energy Information Administration, Office of IntegratedAnalysis and Forecasting, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC 20585


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Global Warming

The global warming issue may be summarised as follows:

Figure 5 - Ozone Depleting Substances, Greenhouse Gases, Global Warming,Climate Change and Ultraviolet-B Radiation

Source:www.epa.gov and Aftaas analysis

Global Initiatives to Combat Global Warming

To control global warming and climate change, internationally countries have joinedforces towards compliance to:

1. Montreal Protocol, 16th September 1987 - agreed to reduce the production ofchlorine- and bromine-containing chemicals that destroy stratospheric ozone, suchas CFCs, halons, methyl chloroform, carbon tetrachloride, bromides etc

2. Kyoto Protocol, 11th December, 1997 - agreed to reduce their anthropogenicgreenhouse gas emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) by at least 5%

below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.

United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) has created the SignificantNew Alternatives Policy (SNAP) Program under section 612 of the Clean Air ActAmendments.

SNAP evaluates alternatives to ozone depleting substances.

GlobalWarming

Skin CancerCataractsImmune

Suppression

Climate Change

El Nino RisingSea Level

Floods

Heatwave

FreakStormsGreenhouse

Gases

OzoneDepletion

UV-BRadiation

CO2N2O

CH4Class IIHCFCs

HFCs PFCs

SF6 NF3HFEs

Class I

CFCsHalonsCCl4, Br

Crop YieldsPlankton/Fish

Marine

Aquasystems

GlobalWarming

Skin CancerCataractsImmune

Suppression

Climate Change

El Nino RisingSea Level

Floods

Heatwave

FreakStormsGreenhouse

Gases

OzoneDepletion

UV-BRadiation

CO2N2O

CH4Class IIHCFCs

HFCs PFCs

SF6 NF3HFEs

Class I

CFCsHalonsCCl4, Br

Crop YieldsPlankton/Fish

Marine

Aquasystems
http://www.epa.gov/http://www.epa.gov/http://www.epa.gov/http://www.epa.gov/


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Biofuel Emissions

Figure 6 - Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Fuel

Source: Report on Bus Alternatives sponsored by HGCI, UOS, Ford Motor Company, and Harvard University, 31stJuly 2001 (www.greencampus.harvard.edu/ green_projects/afvp/rec/bus.pdf)

The above figure shows that compared to diesel, biodiesel use significantly reducesgreenhouse gases, particulates, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide,with a small increase in nitrous oxides. 100% Biodiesel emits a third of carbon dioxideemitted by diesel.


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Biodiesel as a Biofuel

Table 1 Comparison of Alternative Fuels

Source: Biodiesel Production and Marketing in Germany: The Situation and Perspective, Dieter Bockey, Union ZurForderung Von Oel- Und Proteinpflanzen E. V.(UFOP)

The above table shows that there are no restrictions in biodiesel use in terms ofvehicle technique, security, tank time, radius of action and lubrication whereas thereare some restrictions in selling and handling and restrictions in availability, betteredonly by as yet in development fuel operated gas cell vehicles, and restrictions in costs,bettered only by compressed natural gas, liquid gas and methanol vehicles.


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Sources and Yields of Biodiesel

Table 2 - Average Oil Yields, Land Requirements and Major Producers ofOleaginous Plants

Source: Liberalisation of Trade in Renewable Energy and Associated Technologies: Biodiesel, Solar Thermal andGeothermal Energy, Ronald Steenblik, OECD Directorate, 4th April 2006, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

The above table shows that oil palm yields the highest feedstock oil per hectare, thus

the lowest planting area displaced.


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Global Oil and Fats Market

Figure 7 - Global Oil and Fats Market 2006 Forecast 145 million tonnes

Source: Oil World Annual 2006

Palm oil has overtaken soybean oil in the global fats and oils market.


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Figure 8 - Major Vegetable Oil and Meal Trade Flows

Source: Rabobank analysis based on Oil World and FAPRI, 2006, Drivers and Dynamics in the Oilseed Complex,Alejandro Reca, Executive Director, Food and Agribusiness Research- Americas, Rabobank International, 14thJune 2006

Potential for Biodiesel by Country

Figure 9 - Global Biodiesel Potential from Existing Lipid Exports

Source: A Comparative International Analysis of the Potential Gains from Biodiesel Production and Export, MatthewP. Johnston and Tracey Holloway, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of


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Wisconsin, Submitted to Environmental Science & Technology, October 13, 2006

Table 3 - Top 10 Developing Countries with the Highest Profit Potential fromBiodiesel Exports

Note: green signifies the country is in the top third of all countries, yellow in the middle third and red in thebottom thirdSource: A Comparative International Analysis of the Potential Gains from Biodiesel Production and Export, Matthew

P. Johnston and Tracey Holloway, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University ofWisconsin, Submitted to Environmental Science & Technology, October 13, 2006

Malaysia has the highest biodiesel potential amongst developing countries.

Production Cost of Biodiesel by Country

Figure 10 - Biodiesel Production Cost per Liter from Existing Lipid Exports

Source: A Comparative International Analysis of the Potential Gains from Biodiesel Production and Export, MatthewP. Johnston and Tracey Holloway, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University ofWisconsin, Submitted to Environmental Science & Technology, October 13, 2006


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Table 4 - Top 10 Countries in Terms of Absolute Biodiesel Potential

Source: A Comparative International Analysis of the Potential Gains from Biodiesel Production and Export, MatthewP. Johnston and Tracey Holloway, Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University ofWisconsin, Submitted to Environmental Science & Technology, October 13, 2006

Malaysias production cost is one of the lowest by far, comparable only by Indonesiaand Philippines.

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Biodiesel Potential