Upload
melvin-taylor
View
46
Download
4
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Biotechnology and Agriculture: Key Issues of Concern in Taiwan 蔡 嘉 寅 November 20, 2007. Overview: • What is biotechnology • What is genetic engineering and its applications • What are the major global concerns related to environment and agriculture - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Biotechnology and Agriculture:
Key Issues of Concern in Taiwan
蔡 嘉 寅
November 20, 2007
Overview:
• What is biotechnology
• What is genetic engineering and its applications
• What are the major global concerns related to environment and agriculture
• What are the key agricultural issues in Taiwan
Biotechnology covers a wide spectrum:
Brewing to organismal cloning
Genetic engineering
Tg-cloned pigs
Tg pig 8-3 酷比一號
酷比三號
酷比二號
Fig. Each of the cloned pigs appears similar black–blue spots on there rear back skin.
(Wu et al., 2002)
Nuclear donor-pig
What is genetic engineering and its applications
Transcription Translation
DNA ----------> RNA ----------> Protein
Why transgenic organisms?
Constraint due to sexual incompatibility
基因鎗
基因子彈
植物細胞
Nucleus
農業試驗所農藝組
DNA transfer
bang!
基因射擊後之表現
農業試驗所農藝組
細胞再生成植株
農業試驗所農藝組
Figure. Comparison on the retarding effects on the yellowing of harvested floral heads in transformed and non-transformed broccoli. A,B,C,D: ipt transformed lines, E: non-transformed control; Upper row: pictured at the day detached; Lower row: after harvest and stored at 25°C for 6 days. ( 資料來源 :中央研究院 植物所 陳榮芳提供 )
以甘藷的抗蟲基因轉殖至菸草中,轉殖菸草(左)可以抗斜夜盜蟲等台灣常見害蟲之侵蝕資料來源 :台灣大學植物所葉開溫提供
Spodopter litura(tobacoo cutworm)
Major global concerns in this century
• Deterioration of the environment
• Diminution of natural resources
• Shortage of food supply
• Increase in population
Deterioration of the environment
Global warming
Sea level rise, spreading diseases, drought
Pollution
Industrial, agricultural and other human activities
Changes of CO2 concentration since the 18th century
Source: IPCC
Global WarmingGlobal CO2 emission: 25 billion tons/year
Atmospheric CO2 concentration:
280ppm (1850 年 ) 370 (current) 700ppm (2100年 )
Average global temperature would increase about 3°C
Source: IPCC
When the temperature increase 3°C
Sea level might rise 10-90 cm
Source: IPCC
Global Warming
• Initially may favor grain production
• Frequency of drought
• Increases in insect population
Initially may favor grain production due to:
CO2 concentration
Temperature
Global Warming
• Initially may favor grain production
• Frequency of drought
• Increases in insect population
Probability of drought in
U.S. when temperature
increase 3°C
5% (current) 50%
Source: IPCC
Global Warming
• Initially may favor grain production
• Frequency of drought
• Increases in insect population
Infectious diseases
Increases in mosquito population when temperature increase 3 degree Celsius______________________________________Regions Population increase__________________________________
Tropical regions Two-fold
Temperate regions Ten-fold______________________________________More than 2 billion people could suffer from infectious diseases each year
Source: Research for Man and the Environment
Strategies
CO2 emissions in 2012 cut back to 1990 level ---
Kyoto Protocol (effective on February 16, 2005)
Annual CO2 emission per person
0
5
10
15
20
25
台灣 美國 英國 德國 日本 澳洲 韓國 巴西
()
排放量噸
1990
2000
2020
Source: STPI
Deterioration of the environment
Global warming
Sea level rise, spreading diseases, drought
Pollution
Industrial, agricultural and other human activities
World nitrogen consumption
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
year
mill
ion
tone
s
World
Source: FAO STAT
YearYear Total pesticideTotal pesticide InsecticideInsecticide HerbicideHerbicide FungicideFungicide
19991999 1,376,050 1,376,050 293,365 293,365 608,154 608,154 414,645 414,645
20002000 1,388,774 1,388,774 293,074 293,074 616,028 616,028 413,870 413,870
20012001 1,383,506 1,383,506 289,598 289,598 631,535 631,535 415,067 415,067
20022002 1,407,245 1,407,245 294,872 294,872 649,061 649,061 418,301 418,301
20032003 1,441,608 1,441,608 293,162 293,162 666,270 666,270 432,088 432,088
20042004 1,466,994 1,466,994 293,529 293,529 680,780 680,780 439,656 439,656
20052005 1,493,792 1,493,792 294,289 294,289 697,484 697,484 448,265 448,265
1999-2005 Global pesticide consumptionUnit: ton
Source: Euromonitor International from FAO
N fertilizer and pesticide consumption in U.S. and Taiwan
Country Production area Country Production area Nitrogen Nitrogen Pesticide Pesticide
(1000 ha) (1000 ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha) (kg/ha)
U. S.U. S. 127,252 127,252 82 82 22
Taiwan Taiwan 880 340 14 880 340 14
Major global concerns in this century
• Deterioration of the environment
• Diminution of natural resources
• Shortage of food supply
• Increase in population
Diminution of natural resources
Supply of major energy sources
Coal 164 years
Oil 41 years
Natural gas 67 years
Uranium 85 years
Source: BP 2005, URANIUM 2005
Changes of oil price from 1999 to 2006
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
年份
(/
)價格美元桶
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
資料來源:經濟部能源局能源
Strategies
Alternative energy: renewable sources
Bush Administration’s effort
Reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years
• Convert 50% of corn produced into ethanol
• Create 3 bioenergy research centers
U.S. EPA Ethanol Regulations
Mandatory requirements:
Gasoline or diesel should contain
2.78% in 2005
3.00% in 2006
3.71% in 2007
Volunteer program: E85 is a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline and is used in flexible fuel vehicles (MFA Oil Co. and Mid-Missouri Energy)
U.S. corn production in 2006
Planted acreage (m ha) Production (m tons)
31.7 267.6
35.6 (projection for 2007)
• 2006 had 106 companies used 53.3 million tons for ethanol production
• 2007 expects to increase 30 more companies using 88.9 million tons
for ethanol production
Changes of corn prices in recent years
Source: Corn Mini, TFC Commodity Chart
Bush Administration’s effort
Reduce gasoline consumption by 20% in 10 years
• Convert 50% of corn produced into ethanol
• Create 3 bioenergy research centers
Three bioenergy research centers
• Location: Oak Ridge, Tenn; Madison, WI; Berkeley, CA
• Budget: DOE provides 125 million capital and 25 million/year
of research budget for each center to start operation on Sept. 1,
2009. Each center involves scientists from universities, companies,
and national labs in their regions.
• Mission: 1. Finding naturally occurring microbes to break down
lignin effectively. 2. Creating new crops. 3. Bring technologies to
market in 5 years.
Major global concerns in this century
• Deterioration of the environment
• Diminution of natural resources
• Shortage of food supply
• Increase in population
美國乾旱或然率
5% ( 目前 ) 50% (2050 年)
0
20000000
40000000
60000000
80000000
100000000
120000000
year
capture
aquaculture
World fish catch and aquaculture productionto
ns
Source: FAO
Strategies
Aquaculture
Projection for aquaculture
Source : FAO, Danske Securities
Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
F
20
02
F
20
05
F
20
08
F
20
11
F
20
14
F
20
17
F
20
20
F
20
23
F
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
Aquaculture
Wild catches
Share Aquaculture
Source: FAO, Danske Securities
千噸
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
(水產養殖)
(捕撈)
(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)
Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
19
84
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
F
20
02
F
20
05
F
20
08
F
20
11
F
20
14
F
20
17
F
20
20
F
20
23
F
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
Aquaculture
Wild catches
Share Aquaculture
Source: FAO, Danske Securities
千噸
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
(水產養殖)
(捕撈)
(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)
Major global concerns in this century
• Deterioration of the environment
• Diminution of natural resources
• Shortage of food supply
• Increase in population
1960-2003 World grain production
YearYear Production Production (mt)(mt)
1960 1960 824 824
1970 1970 1,0791,079
1980 1980 1,4301,430
19901990 1,7681,768
20002000 1,8391,839
20032003 1,8211,821
Source: USDA
World population and grain harvested area
Year Population (million) Harvest area (million ha)Year Population (million) Harvest area (million ha)
1980 4,447 7701980 4,447 770
1990 5,274 7601990 5,274 760
2000 6,073 7802000 6,073 780
Source: U.S. Bureau of Mines
Major global concerns in this century
• Deterioration of the environment
• Diminution of natural resources
• Shortage of food supply
• Increase in population
Pop
ulation
by R
egion (B
illions)
YearSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
N. America; Europe; USSRLatin AmericaAsiaNear East and N. AfricaSub-Saharan Africa
World population trend
Strategies
Population- control
Food – production (average yield 2300 kg/ha)
Inputs (nutrients, pesticides, water)
weather
Biotechnology (GMO)
Reduce meet consumption
Competitions for grain consumption
Human consumption: 300kg percapita
Animal: conversion ratios
beef – 7 : 1
pork – 4 : 1
chicken – 2 : 1
Energy: ethanol production
Human consumption percapita
World average: 300 kg percapita
U.S.: 800 kg percapita
Taiwan: 400 kg percapita
China: 300 kg percapita
India: 200 kg percapita
Major agricultural issues in Taiwan
• High production costs resulting in low profit
• Labor intensive causing a low production efficiency
• Lack of entrepreneurship for developing marketing strategies
• Aging community affecting agricultural vitality
7 圖 農業就業人口之年齡結構變動
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
年
(%
)年齡結構
15-29歲
30-59歲
60歲以上
資料來源;「人力資源統計月報」,行政院主計處。
Strategies to increase competitiveness for agro-industry
• Identify high potential products (focus) for global markets
• Promote horizontal integrations to increase production efficiency
• Revise laws and regulations to facilitate the development
• Set up platforms to commercialize R&D outputs
SWOT analysis (domestic and global)
Strength
Weakness
Opportunity
Threat
類別 關鍵問題及技術 願景
養殖
花卉
蔬菜、菇類
水果
成為亞太地區健康水產種苗中心
建立穩定之花卉健康種苗供應體系
建構安全農業體系
促進外銷及穩定內銷市場
功能性基因 (含抗逆境 )(畜產、水產、水稻 ) 發展分子農場
豬、雞
制定我國可發展重點方向
1997 至 2004 年我國重要花卉出口值
資料來源:財政部關稅總局統計資料庫
單位:新台幣億元
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
菊花 唐菖蒲 玫瑰 百合 火鶴花 蘭花
蘭花 420%
菊花 87%
由產業資訊分析我國發展之利基
資料來源: FAO, Danske Securities
Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 0001
984
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
F
20
02
F
20
05
F
20
08
F
20
11
F
20
14
F
20
17
F
20
20
F
20
23
F
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
Aquaculture
Wild catches
Share Aquaculture
Source: FAO, Danske Securities
千噸
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
(水產養殖)
(捕撈)
(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)
Wild catches and aquaculture production 1984-2025E
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 0001
984
19
87
19
90
19
93
19
96
19
99
F
20
02
F
20
05
F
20
08
F
20
11
F
20
14
F
20
17
F
20
20
F
20
23
F
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
Aquaculture
Wild catches
Share Aquaculture
Source: FAO, Danske Securities
千噸
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
(水產養殖)
(捕撈)
(水產養殖佔總漁產之比率)
重視聚落效應增加
研發經費
改善基礎建設
鼓勵投資
提供優惠措施
明訂推動單位
規劃發展重點
發展重點
Proofof
Concept
Early Product
Development
LateProduct
Development
Registration
農業生技相關計畫
核心技術/核心設施/人員配置
技術開發平台 (中心 ) BTC
規劃並建構產業化技術開發平台—功能
Proofof
Concept
Early Product
Development
LateProduct
Development
Registration
農業生技相關計畫
核心技術/核心設施/人員配置
技術開發平台 (中心 ) BTC
學研機構1
1 研發能量評估機制
3 廠商參與評估機制
產業化企劃書
廠商3
廠商 3
廠商3
2
2
2
2 產品上市評估機制
•衍生公司•生技公司
4 人才培育機制
4
4
4
規劃並建構產業化技術開發平台—機制