Buffett cung khong hoan hao

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  • Original title:Even Buffett isn't Perfect: What You Can - and Cant - Learn fromthe Worlds Greatest Investorby Vahan Janjigian

    Copyright Vahan Janjigian, 2008.

    Vietnamese Edition 2010 by First News Tri Viet.This edition is published by arrangement with Portfolio,a member of Penguin Group ( USA) Inc.All rights reserved including the right of reproduction in whole orin part in any form.

    EVEN BUFFETT ISN'T PERFECT NGAY C BUFFETT CNG KHNG HON HO

    Cng ty First News Tr Vit gi bn quyn xut bn v pht hnh nbn ting Vit trn ton th gii theo hp ng chuyn giao bn quynvi NXB Portfolio, thuc Penguin Group (USA) Inc.

    Bt c s sao chp no khng c s ng ca First News u l bthp php v vi phm Lut Xut bn Vit Nam, Lut Bn quyn Quct v Cng c Bo h Bn quyn S hu Tr tu Berne.

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  • Ngay c

    BUFFETTCNG KHNG

    HON HONhng bi hc gi tr t Nh u t

    Thng minh Nht Th gii

    Ngi dch:

    Nguyn Trung An (MBA)

    Vng Bo Long

    First News

    NH XUT BN TR

    VA H A N J A N J I G I A N

  • LI TA

    ahan Janjigian l ngi c y cc phm cht c bit vit v Warren Buffett. Tuy Nh hin trit x Omaha l ch ca rt nhiu quyn sch, nhng quyn sch ca Vahan rt c bit.N khng phi l mt l th tnh cng khng phi l mt s ch trchhay lng m. Vahan cng l mt ngi la chn c phiu rt xut sc ng qun l hai bn tin u t Forbes Special Situation Survey vForbes Growth Investor. ng th hin mt nng lc tht tuyt vi.Nhng ngi nhn hai bn tin ny thu c nhiu ch li t nhngphn tch sc bn, khng cm tnh ca Vahan. Do , Vahan c cnhng kin thc su sc thc s cm nhn c hiu qu phithng ca Warren Buffett Tp on Berkshire Hathaway. nggii thch mt cch cn thn v kin nhn phng php u t klut cao v s nhn xa trng rng ca Buffett cng nh s tin haca n trong qu trnh pht trin ti sn ca Berkshire Hathaway.

    Nhng y khng phi l mt bn phn tch y v hintng Buffett Vahan kho lo s dng nhng kin thc su scv s thnh cng ca con ngi v i ny dy cho chng ta nhngiu cn bit v u t gi tr nhm duy tr hiu qu cao trn thtrng. Vahan cng phn tch k lng nhng chin lc u tkhc, v Ph Wall khng ch tn ti mt cch u t duy nht.

    Rc ri vi hu ht cc nh u t l h thng xuyn nhyt phng php ny sang phng php khc. Rt t ngi kin trnh Buffett trong vic gi li c phiu nhiu nm trc khi bn i.

  • V cng c rt t ngi c kh nng p dng mt cch nht qunnhng chin lc khc nhau m Vahan phn tch trong quyn schny. Nu bn sn sng dp b cm xc qua mt bn, quyn sch nys tr thnh mt kho bu kin thc u t su sc dnh cho bn.

    Khng c nh u t no lun lun ng. Con ngi khngth lm c iu . Bn thn Buffett cng c nhng giai on khkhn phi bn l nhng c phiu m ng mua. Tuy nhin, ngthng nm gi nhng c phiu tt kh lu. Nh p dng mtphng php u t nht qun v an ton thm ch cn c tinhchnh theo thi gian Buffett lm c nhng iu k diu.

    Rt may l bn khng cn phi l mt Warren Buffett mi kimc mc thu nhp trong m t th trng chng khon. S k diuca li sut kp c ngha l bt c nh u t cn trng no cng cth t c thnh cng thc s v lu di.

    iu lm cho quyn sch ny c bit c gi tr l VahanJanjigian khng phi l ngi m qung khi ng khn ngoan nhnra rng hot ng u t khng din ra trong mi trng chnkhng. Chng vit v thu l phn m tt c mi ngi nn c,c bit l cc chnh tr gia. ng ngc nhin l mt thin ti nhBuffett li c ci nhn thin cn v vn then cht ny. Khi ArnoldSchwazenegger quyt nh chy ua vo chc Thng c bangCalifornia, Buffett khuyn ng nn ng h vic tng cc loi thunh trn ti sn, iu ny sut ko chn Arnold li vi th gii innh Hollywood thay v a ng vo Dinh Thng c.

    Nh nhiu ngi khc Washington, Buffett ngh rng ngigiu nn b nh thu thu nhp vi thu sut cao hn. ng cng rasc ng h vic p dng thu ti sn tha k.

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  • Buffett tin rng ngi M c sng trong mt t nc tuytvi v nhng ngi may mn lm n tt M nn ng thunhiu hn. Ma mai thay, nu li khuyn ca Buffett c thc hinth nn kinh t s vn hnh km i v gi tr ca cc khon u t caBuffett s chu nh hng nng n. Hy nhn li hiu qu ngho nnca chng khon v nn kinh t trong thi k thu cao thp k 1970m xem.

    iu m Nh hin trit x Omaha v qu nhiu ngi khckhng nhn ra l thu cng l mt ci gi phi tr v l mt gnhnng, ch khng ch l mt phng tin tng thu nhp cho ngn schnh nc. Thu thu nhp l ci gi bn phi tr lm vic; thu litc l gnh nng ln vai bn nu bn kinh doanh thnh cng; vmc thu m bn phi tr cho nhng khon li tc t vn u t lci gi bn phi tr cho nhng ri ro m mnh phi chp nhn. Rtn gin, nu bn gim nh gnh nng cho nhng iu tch cc nhlm vic t nng sut cao, dm chp nhn ri ro v kinh doanhthnh cng th chng s thng xuyn din ra hn. Tng gi ln thiu ngc li s xy ra. Janjigian ch ra rng 1% nhng ngi cthu nhp hng u nc M chim n 21% tng thu nhp c tora v h tr n 39% thu thu nhp lin bang.

    Buffett cng chm hiu nh vy i vi vn thu ti sntha k (death tax). ng ng h vic thu hi ti sn v tin rng chnhph nn nhn phn ln ti sn m bn li. Nu khng, nhngngi tha k ca bn s nhn c ti sn m khng phi lao ngv ca tri cho s lm xi mn tnh cch ca h, khuyn khch hsng hng th mt cch v trch nhim. Tri li, thu ti sn thak li mang tnh trng pht i vi hot ng to dng vn v tnhtit kim. Ti sao li phi tch ly ti sn nu phn ln chng s ri

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  • vo tay chnh ph mt cch d dng? Vahan vit rng: Ti sn lnhng g cn li sau khi np tt c cc khon thu. Cn cc nhlp quc ca chng ta c th s din gii vn ny theo cch sau:Cn sng l cn ng thu!.

    Thu ti sn tha k c mt tc ng k l m Buffett v nhngngi ng h khc khng nhn thy. Khi thu sut cao, nhng ngirt giu s tm cch n trnh loi thu ny. Chnh trch nhim ngthu ti sn ca Buffett cng rt thp v ng ang trao tng hu httin bc ca mnh cho Qu t thin Bill & Melinda Gates. Nhngngi thc s giu c thit lp nhng c ch b mt v nhng mnhkhe khc gi cho ti sn ca mnh nguyn vn, v iu thngng ngha vi vic nhng ngi tha k s khng trc tip chmtay n n. Ti sn do vn c duy tr nguyn vn. Nu khngc thu ti sn tha k, phn ln ti sn s chuyn trc tip vo taycon chu h - hu ht nhng ngi ny khng c c bn nng kinhdoanh; cho nn, s tin s nhanh chng c lun chuyn. l bncht ca con ngi. V d, hy xem xt danh sch 400 ngi giunht nc M ca Forbes ngy nay, khng ngi no trong s h ch du Pont v ch c mt ngi c h Rockefeller, trong khi chai gia nh ny u kim sot nhng ti sn khng l cch y trndi 25 nm.

    Nhng ngi tin tng mnh m vo thu cao pht l lchs. Nhng k hoch ct gim thu thu nhp ln thi Reagan nm1981 v 1986 bin mt nn kinh t M nh n thnh nn kinht nng ng nht th gii. T trng GDP ca nc M so vi GDPton cu tng mnh m, cng nh gi tr vn c phn ca nc Mso vi tng gi tr vn c phn ca c th gii.

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  • S tng thu ca Clinton nm 1993 lm chm ng k tc tng trng ca nn kinh t M v gp phn lm cho ng Dnch tht bi thm hi trong k bu c nm 1994. Vi nhng ngithuc ng Cng ha thuc phe a s trong Quc hi, v Tngthng ng h tng thu Clinton b dn vo chn tng. Chngtrnh x hi ha y t ca b Clinton b tht bi. Chi tiu b kim sot.V quan trng nht l c nhng ng thi tch cc v thu sau :thu nh trn li tc t vn c ct gim gn 29%. Thu nh trnli tc t vn cho nhng ngi s hu nh gn nh c loi b, vphp lnh dng nh thu trn Internet c chuyn thnh lut iu ny gp phn rt ln vo vic pht trin nn kinh t mt cchmnh m. Chng trnh ct gim thu nm 2003 ca chnh quynBush thu thu nhp trn vn u t tip tc c ct gim, thuthu nhp t c tc i vi c nhn c gim nh, v nhng gi kchthch doanh nghip u t c trin khai bin nn kinh t Mt vic tng trng vi tc thc 1% ln thnh 3-4%. T nm 2003n 2007, s tng trng ca nn kinh t M vt quy m tngth ca nn kinh t Trung Quc. V bn c on c iu gkhng? Vn c phn tng vt gn gp i so vi mc thp nht vocui nm 2002.

    Vahan cn ch ra mt kha cnh khc m Buffett t ra thin cn:thng tin nh hng thu nhp. Hu ht cc tp on i chng lnu cung cp cho cc nh phn tch chng khon c tnh thu nhpk vng ca h cho tng qu. Nu cng ty khng t c mc thunhp k vng d ch t hn mt vi xu th c phiu ca h s gimmnh. Buffett cm thy nhng thng tin nh hng nh vy gpphn lm tng tnh thiu n nh ca th trng chng khon vbuc b my qun l hng n nhng hot ng qu thin v ngn

    9

  • hn. ng thuyt phc nhiu cng ty m ng nm gi c phiuln, nh Coca-Cola v Washington Post, ngng cung cp thng tinnh hng.

    Vahan a ra mt phn bin ht sc thuyt phc v tinh t.D c hay khng c cung cp thng tin v thu nhp k vng, ccnh u t cng t a ra cc c tnh ca h. Hn na, b myqun l cn phi cung cp thng tin cho nh u t nhiu hn, chkhng phi t i. V tnh khng n nh ca th trng, cc nghincu cho thy nhng cng ty khng cung cp thng tin nh hngthng d bin ng hn nhng cng ty c cung cp. Quan trnghn l nhng cng ty khng cung cp thng tin nh hng thngc gi tr vn ha th trng nh hn. Ni cch khc, nhng cng tya ra c tnh thu nhp thng c gi c phiu cao hn.

    V th, y l mt quyn sch khc thng. Tuy tp trung niv nh u t thnh cng nht trong lch s hin i, nhng n cngmang li cho c gi nhng kin thc su sc v chin lc chc chn u t. V cui cng, nhng din gii ca n v thu v s minhbch trong qun tr s to ra mt mi trng thun li gi tr vnc phn m rng hn na.

    Tm li, bn ang c trong tay mt quyn sch 3 trong 1,ngha l bn ang nm gi mt ti sn gi tr cao b nh gi thp.

    - Steve ForbesCh tch kim Gim c iu hnh Forbes Inc.

    Tng bin tp tp ch Forbes

    10 -

  • GII THIU

    Ngy 26 thng 6 nm 2006, ngi giu th hai nc M thngbo rng ng s trao tng phn ln ti sn ca mnh cho ngi giunht nc M. Ngi bn cnh v chng Bill v Melinda Gates Thvin Quc gia New York, Warren Buffett cng b k hoch hintng 10 triu c phiu ph thng loi B ca Berkshire Hathaway, trgi c tnh vo thi im khong 31 t USD, cho Qu T thinBill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Ngoi ra, ng cn dnh thm 2triu c phiu, tng ng 6,3 t USD, trao tng cho nhng qu tthin do ba ngi con ca ng iu hnh, trong c mt qu tthin c t tn theo tn ngi v qu c ca ng. Ch bng mthnh ng, ngi n ng tng to dng c ting tm lng lyvi vic xy dng mt trong nhng khi ti sn c nhn v i nhtth gii m bo rng th gii ny s nh mi lng ho