Path toward Low-Carbon Society: Japan and Asia1st session: “The results of ‘Japan Low-Carbon Society

Scenarios toward 2050’ Project” (Feb. 12th 2009)

低炭素社会の交通Transportation in Low Carbon Society

(Updated, Feb.11th)

森口 祐一

Yuichi Moriguchi 脱温暖化2050プロジェクト交通チームリーダー

Team Leader, Transport Subproject, LCS 2050 Project

（独）国立環境研究所循環型社会・廃棄物研究センター長

Director, Research Center for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES

1

2

Contents

1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport（日本の現状）

2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies （2020交通シナリオ：技術）

3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination（2050交通ビジョン：組合せ）

4. Conclusion（まとめ）

3

0

50

100

150

200

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

GDP

Total

Energy Industory

Industrial

Commercial & Residential

Transport

Em

iss

ion

In

de

x d

en

om

ina

ted

by

19

73

Trend of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector in Japan

CO2 emissions had almost the same trend as GDP before the 1st oil crisis

Industrial sector:stay leveling out

Energy Industry, Commercial & Residential sector: level out, then increase recently

Transport sector: continued to increase, then began to decrease

GDP

運輸部門排出量は1997年ごろまで伸び続けた

4

Other0%

Waste3%

EnergyIndustries

32%

IndustrialProcesses

4%

ManufacturingIndustries andConstruction

29%

Transport19%

Commercial &Others

8%

Residential5%

Total CO2 emissions2005

Railway

Maritime

Aviation

Motorvehicle

Share CO2 emissions of transport sector

運輸部門は日本の排出量の約2割を占める。その大半が自動車からの排出

5

Trend of car possessions

0

20

40

60

80

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Light vehicles

Small passenger cars

Regular size passenger cars

(Million) Number of passenger car possessions

Year-to-year growth of car posessions

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Regular size passenger cars Small passenger cars Light vehicles

(Million)

保有

増減

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Light passenger cars

Small passenger cars

Regular size passenger cars

(Million) New cars sold

販売

乗用車の保有台数はピークを迎えた

6

Size of passenger cars has been getting larger and causes larger CO2 emissions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Light passenger cars

Small passenger cars

Regular size passenger

Number of car possesions (Million)

Tax system change 税制改正：1989 普通車優遇 物品税廃止

自動車税低減2000 低燃費車優遇 自動車税低減

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.6

9.8

10.0

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005年実

用燃

費(k

m/l)

Average Fuel economy（1987-2005)

Average fuel economy had been getting worse in 90’s

税制の影響が明らか

7

Contents

1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport（日本の現状）

2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies （2020交通シナリオ：技術）

3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination（2050交通ビジョン：組合せ）

4. Conclusion（まとめ）

Overview of the project across time horizon

2020 20502000

Mid term

goal

Long term goal

Tax reform

Research

period

Green tax

Cohort analysis by fuel, size,infra for fuel supply, etc. Regulation & Incentive

Forecast of technological Efficiency (vehicle, fuel conversion)

Forecasting

Backcasting

ESTEnvironmentally Sustainable Transport

Kyoto protocolBase year 1990

22.8% increase at 2001

BAU

Demand side management

Technological reduction

＋

Lead time needed for

EST Vision, Scenario

Increasing vehicle size

Increasing ownership

Further emission control

Socio-economic impacts

Emission to be reduced

(2)Proposal of long-term emission reduction scenarios by back-casting

(1)Assessment of effectiveness of new technologies and their policy measures taking lead time into account

技術を中心とした2020年シナリオと需要変化を組合せた2050年シナリオ8

9

Well to (Charge) Tank(Charge) Tank to Wheel

Well to Wheel

The Well to Wheel approach to assess total efficiency

Primary energyWell

Fuel tank(Charge) Tank

DriveWheel

Survey and assessment of automotive technology

G (10～30%) G (～5%) D (～5%)

G (5～10%) G, D (30～100%)

variable valve

HybridCVT

High pressure injection

Survey of technical informationEnvironment Option Database

車両要素技術と燃料調達経路を考慮した自動車技術の評価

10Motor drive

fossil fuel supplyEngine drive

combination

Combination of fuel supply and power-train

Hydrogen station

Charging station

CNG station

Construction of energy stations are required

Petrol station

Drive wheel

Fuel cellReformer

engine power generation

Battery

(CNG vehicles)

Fuel tank

or

Fuel cell Hydrogen tank

Long charging time

Fuel cell vehicles

Electric vehicles

Drive wheelElectric power

Parallel hybrid vehicles

Gasoline / Diesel vehicles

Series hybrid vehicles

Automotive technologies altering engine-drive vehicles

Plug-in hybrid vehicles

自動車は電動へ

11

Paths from primary energy to automotive energy

On-site water electrolysis

H2

hydrogen

electricity

Liquid fuel（traditional

fuel, synfuel）

gas（consumer）

CNG On site reformer

Automotive energy

biomass

Renewable energyElectric transmission

Power generation

transport Fossil fuel

transport nuclear power

refinery

reformer

transport

Primary energy

pipeline

Water electrolysis

hydrogen station

Charging station

CNG station

Petrol station

harvesting, transport

Construction of energy stations are required

多様なパスがありうる

Well to wheel CO2 emissions

JHFC(2007)

• Although CO2 emissions from FCEV are less than HV, FCEV has got problems to be solved such as FC durability, FCEV cost and the way to produce and supply hydrogen. Therefore, wide spread of HVs is thought to be one of the feasible and effective measures in 2020.

Biomass

排出係数が少ない燃料電池車やバイオ燃料車は、費用と量の確保等に課題12

13

0

100

200

300

400

500

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

HEV production capacity

The duplation of production capacity is required every year from 2005 to 2010.

450 = most of the domestic passenger car production

2004HV（World) 17Prius(World) 13Prius(Japan) 7

(ten-thousand vehicles/year)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

Emission(Mt-CO2)

air/rail/water

LDVs(HEV)

LDVs

Private HDVs

Commercial HDVs

Light freight vehicles

Light passenger cars

Buses

Passenger cars(HEV)

Passenger cars

BAU:+19%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

199

0

199

2

199

4

199

6

199

8

200

0

200

2

200

4

200

6

200

8

201

0

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

Emission(Mt-CO2)

air/rail/water

LDVs(HEV)

LDVs

Private HDVs

Commercial HDVs

Light freight vehicles

Light passenger cars(BEV)

Light passenger cars

Buses

Passenger cars(HEV)

Passenger cars

HEV:±0%

HEV scenario

±0％

Baseline scenario

CO2 emissions （Mt-CO2）

Scenario: Penetration of Hybrid Electric Vehicles（HEV）

CO2 emissions reduced by 45% by hybridization.

（初期版）ハイブリッド車の大量普及で2020年+19%を±0%に

+19％

14

HEV production capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

1998

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

The 20% increase of production capacity forJapan is required every year from 2006 to 2020.

350 = most of the domesticpassenger car production

(ten-thousand vehicles/year)

Toyota HEV world production20(2005)→100(-2015)

primary scenario

Emission(Mt-CO2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

air/rail/water

LDVs(HEV)

LDVs

Private HDVs

Commercial HDVs

Light freight vehicles

Light passenger cars

Buses

Passenger cars(HEV)

Passenger cars

BAU:+8% Emission(Mt-CO2)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

air/rail/water

LDVs(HEV)

LDVs

Private HDVs

Commercial HDVs

Light freight vehicles

Light passenger cars(BEV)

Light passenger cars

Buses

Passenger cars(HEV)

Passenger cars

HEV:-3%

HEV scenario

-3％

Baseline scenario

CO2 emissions （Mt-CO2）

+8％

Revised Scenario: Penetration of Hybrid Electric Vehicles（HEV）

（改訂版）ハイブリッド車の大量普及で2020年+8%を-3%に

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1990 2020(primary) 2020(revised)

Mt-CO2 BaU HV HV+DM研究期間中に2020年シナリオを更新した。BAUの将来交通量は約1割減となり、対策のハイブリッド車普及率を約80→40%に

した。時計が進む一方で達成可能性は向上した。

15

Outline of 2020 scenariosScenario BaselineBaseline HEVHEV +Demand +Demand

ManagementManagementPenetration of HEVs and BEVs

Pass. Car (PC) HEVs 20%Low duty vehicle (LDV) HEVs 10%

PC- HEVs 37%LDV-HEVs 20%Light PC-BEVs 37%

Fuel consumption of HEVs

40% reduction compared with the current fuel consumption of gasoline / diesel vehicles. LDV-HEV reduce 20% of fuel consumption of current LDV’s）

Improvement of fuel consumption（to 2002）

PCs, buses, LDVs reduce 10% of fuel.

PCs 20%, Buses 10%, Mini car 10%, Heavy duty vehicles 5%, LDVs15%

Traffic volume（to 2002）

3% decrease of PCs7% decrease of freight vehicles (FVs)

PCs -13%FVs -16%

Air, rail, marine transport

5% reduction of fuel consumption of air, rail and marine transport. Air transportation increase by 20% compared with current volume.

CO2 emissions(compared to 1990)

+8% -3% -10%

さらに交通需要管理により-10%へ

16

Contents

1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport（日本の現状）

2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies （2020交通シナリオ：技術）

3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination（2050交通ビジョン：組合せ）

4. Conclusion（まとめ）

17

Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20% each could cause over 70% reduction as total

Demand management e.g. by information-

communication technology[transport-service per capita]

Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km

per transport-service]

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuel

consumption]

∑ ⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛××××=

Mode FuelEF

VkmFuel

TkmPkmVkm

TransServTkmkmP

capitaTransServ

capita22 CO

)()(CO

(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

対策を組み合わせることで大きな削減が可能

18

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions

Each Area is categorized in1. Major cities2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million6. Counties

Accumulated population [million]CO2 per capita

[t/year]

Tokyo Met.

Osaka Met.

Nagoya Met.

Other Areas

Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita)

Freight vehicles

Passenger cars

都市部の一人当たり排出量は半分

19

Regional categories

Index of the regional categories

Rural

Urban

MetroProvincial

地域別の対策と人口減少パターン

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000Accumulated population [ten - thousand]

Metro Urban

Transport CO2 [t/capita/year]

1990

2050

Metr

o S

ubu

rb

Pro

vincia

l U

rban

Pro

vincia

l R

ura

l

Technological& behavioural

countermeasures

Depopulation & shift from

rural to urban

20

CO2 emissions of each vehicle category by trip length ranges

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

1-2km

3-9km

10-29km

30-99km

100-299km

300-999km

1,000km-

Special motor vehicles

Heavy Duty Vehicles

Light Duty Vehicles

Light freight vehicles

Buses

Passenger cars

Light passenger cars

Ranges of trip length

t-CO2/day

(Estimated from Road Census 1999)乗用車は短距離

21

Effects of population density on life cycle CO2 of various transit system

LRT (Light Rail Transit)･BRT (Bus Rapid Transit)･AGT (Automated Guideway Transit)･GWB (Guideway Bus)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-CO

2(g-C

O 2/人

km)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-CO

2(g-C

O 2/人

km)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

Monorail(under 20km/h)

(over 20km/h)

Population density in DID(Densely Inhabitant District) [pop./km2]

(under 20km/h)

(over 20km/h)

Sys

tem

Life

Cyc

leC

O2

[g-C

O2/pas

senge

r-km

]

Railway(running only)

Railway(Life cycle)

Bus(running only)

Passenger car(running only)

LRT

LRT

BRTBRT

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-CO

2(g-C

O 2/人

km)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

ＤＩＤ人口密度(人/km2)

輸送

人km

あた

りSyLC

-CO

2(g-C

O 2/人

km)

AGT

モノレール

GWB

BRT（20km/h以下）BRT（20km/h以上）

LRT（20km/h以下）

LRT（20km/h以上）

自動車(全国平均値)

バス（走行のみ）

鉄道（走行のみ）

鉄道（新規整備）

Monorail(under 20km/h)

(over 20km/h)

Population density in DID(Densely Inhabitant District) [pop./km2]

(under 20km/h)

(over 20km/h)

Sys

tem

Life

Cyc

leC

O2

[g-C

O2/pas

senge

r-km

]

Railway(running only)

Railway(Life cycle)

Bus(running only)

Passenger car(running only)

LRT

LRT

BRTBRT

S-3-5(2007)Summary Report of Research Results under the GERFDIDではLRTが有効

22

TOD (Transit Oriented Development) in local city

• Lack of public transport for cities of less population than one millions.

• It has been difficult to manage LRT because “self-supporting accounting system” was required.

• Upgrading from traditional tram has started.

Toyama Light Rail(2006.4.26-)

地方中核都市等の都市計画と公共インフラ整備が重要

the Segway Human Transporter

New concepts for personal mobility

Toyota i-REAL

Kawamura cycle KE Yamato transport/ Electric bicycle with a cart

電池搭載は小型近距離に適性

個人利用の軽量電動車両にも大きな可能性がある (catalog information)2323

24

Residential area

along LRT lines

Intensive land use

Networking of proper modes on each areas

Enhance public transport and walking

LRT

Central area for pedestrians

Car-sharing

Daily living area Agricultural community

Mini EVPersonal mobility

Ring road

Shopping center

Shared taxi

Bicycle

P&R

Farm, green

Farm, green

土地利用と交通の計画が重要

Image of low carbon transport area

Roadmap to reduce regional CO2 of passenger transport（Nagoya Univ.）

導入可能で導入可能でCOCO22排出が最小となる幹線輸送機関の分布排出が最小となる幹線輸送機関の分布

0 400km交通体系(現状)

既存路線活用+鉄道・AGT・モノレール整備LRT整備+既存路線活用LRT・BRT整備+既存路線活用既存路線活用中心+LRT・BRT整備自動車共存

2000年 0 400km交通体系（2050年）

鉄道・AGT・モノレールLRTLRT・BRT既存路線+LRT・BRT自動車

2050年

2050年は、2000年に対する人口減少率がDID地区と非DID人口地区で同じとした場合

路線維持不可能かつ既存路線がない所では自動車がCO2排出が一番小さい。

このような地域が2050年には全国に広がる。

DID人口密度を維持・上昇させる土地利用施策や

交通事業者への補助金投入（道路特定財源の見直し？）等の地域に応じた施策パッケージが必要

DIDDID人口密度を維持・上昇させる人口密度を維持・上昇させる土地利用施策土地利用施策やや

交通事業者への補助金投入（道路特定財源の見直し？）交通事業者への補助金投入（道路特定財源の見直し？）等の等の地域に応じた施策パッケージ地域に応じた施策パッケージが必要が必要

職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ職住近接都市構築施策パッケージ

自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ自動車依存脱却施策パッケージ

公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ公共交通志向維持・強化施策パッケージ

地域に応じた施策パッケージでCO2削減25

26

2050Vision: Passenger transportMetro

Urban

Metro

Suburb

Provincial

Urban

Provincial

Rural

Total

Compact neighborhood

△Rehabilitation

○Rehabilitation

△Rehabilitation

○Compact

Settlement

Compact city △City center

renewal

△Withdrawal △City center

renewal

×

Enhance public transit

△Pricing △Park &

Ride etc.

○LRT △van pool,

shared taxi

Improve load efficiency

△Utilize small vehicles △Enhance

sharing

×

Improve fuel consumption

◎Urban

mode

○local mode

Low carbon energy

△less room

for improve

○biofuel, Low Carbon Electricity for EV

and PHEV etc.

112->33Mt

To 1990

- 70%Including (Inter-city Passenger：30km-)

Index:

◎: - 30%

○: - 20%

△: - 10%

×: no room

pop(million) 46→40 15→12 27→20 35→23 124→94

t-CO2/capita 0.66→0.27 0.94→0.35 1.03→0.38 1.11→0.51 0.90→0.35

2050年の70%削減に向けたビジョンの例

27

Inter-local Freight:

300km-

Inter-city Freight：

30-300km

Inner-city Freight:

-30km

(Inter-city Passenger：30km-)

Total

Supply Chain Management

○SCM △SCM

Compact city ○Short route △～× Enhance modal shift

106->32Mt

To 1990

- 70%Excluding (Inter-city Passenger: 30km-)

Index:

◎: - 30%

○: - 20%

△: - 10%

×: no room

Enhance public transit

○Marine

transport, Rail

△Rail △Hand cart ◎Rail,

Expressway bus

Improve load efficiency

△Low

delivery frequency

△Cooperative

delivery

○Cooperative

delivery

○Car pooling

Improve fuel consumption

○ITS, Fuel-

efficient truck

◎ITS, Fuel-

efficient truck

○ITS, Fuel-

efficient truck

◎ITS, Fuel-

efficient car

Low carbon energy

△biofuel ○biofuel, PHEV

etc.

Mt-CO2 33→10 49→15 24→7 (35→10)

2050Vision: Freight and inter-city passenger transport

2050年の70%削減に向けたビジョンの例

28

Uncertain issues for 2050 Vision

• Globalization / Regionalism• Demography : aging society• Immigration / Emigration• Spatial distribution of population• Leading industries• Busier life driven by IT vs. slow life• Demand for high speed travel • Trip frequency and length for leisure• Price of fossil fuels (especially oil)• The way to produce and supply hydrogen • Public perceptions for nuclear technology• Price of FCEVs• Preferences on vehicle-size• Investment balance between road and public transport

さまざまな不確実性がある

29

Gasoline price and consumption

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 50 100 150 200 250

Price of Gasoline（value in 2000, Yen/liter ）

Gas

olin

e c

onsu

mpt

ion（ｌit

er/

pers

on）

2006

1991

1975

1999

1983

Price and consumption of gasoline for passenger car

Total expenses for gasoline per person was stable at 30-40 thousand yen from 1975 to 1999. Cheap price have cause large increase of car-usage in 90’s. Higher gasoline price may cause large decrease of gasoline consumption in next decade.

中長期的にはガソリン価格の変化に対する反応が大きく出る可能性がある

30

Contents

1. Facts and trends in Japanese transport（日本の現状）

2. 2020 Transport Scenarios: Technologies （2020交通シナリオ：技術）

3. 2050 Transport Visions: Combination（2050交通ビジョン：組合せ）

4. Conclusion（まとめ）

31

LCS2050: a draft vision2050Vision: Policy recommendations

2050年70%削減ビジョン達成に向けた政策の例

Metro

Urban

Metro

Suburb

Provincial

Urban

Provincial

Rural

Total

Compact neighborhood

△Rehabilitation

○Rehabilitation

△Rehabilitation

○Compact

Settlement

Compact city △City center

renewal

△Withdrawal △City center

renewal

×

Enhance public transit

△Pricing △Park &

Ride etc.

○LRT △van pool,

shared taxi

Improve load efficiency

△Utilize small vehicles △Enhance

sharing

×

Improve fuel consumption

◎Urban

mode

○local mode

Low carbon energy

△less room

for improve

○biofuel, Low Carbon Electricity for EV

and PHEV etc.

112->33Mt

To 1990

- 70%Including (Inter-city Passenger：30km-)

Index:

◎: - 30%

○: - 20%

△: - 10%

×: no room

pop(million) 46→40 15→12 27→20 35→23 124→94

t-CO2/capita 0.66→0.27 0.94→0.35 1.03→0.38 1.11→0.51 0.90→0.35

Renewal Preferential tax treatments

Redevelopment

Infrastructure, SubsidyApprove

shared taxi

Regulation of fuel consumptionPrefential tax treatments

Setting goals for Engineering developmentsProvision of infrastructures

32

Conclusion

• Opportunities for low-carbon transport: – Penetrating HEV for 2020– Combination of various countermeasures for 2050

• Best practice examples – More hybrid on the market – Increasing support for public transit (e.g. LRT)

• Linkages with other policy goals– Sound public finance in depopulating society– Accessibility for transportation poor in rural areas

• Policy recommendations– Preferential tax treatments– Regional plan of land-use and transport

ハイブリッド自動車を生かしつつ公共交通と軽量なパーソナルモビリティの組合せへ人口減少等への対応とあわせて、低炭素化に向けた計画と税制誘導による推進が重要