Chuong 4 - Co phieu

8/3/2019 Chuong 4 - Co phieu

1/53

1

C PHIU(STOCK)


2/53

2

Ni dung nghin cu Khi nim c phiu Phn loi c phiu nh gi c phiu

DDM

P/E

L thuyt v th trng hiu qu (EMH-Efficient Market Hypothesis)


3/53

3


4/53


5/53

5


6/53


7/53

7

Phn loi c phiu Cn c vo vic lu hnh trn th trng

C phiu hin hnh (Outstanding)

C phiu ngn qu (Treasury) Cn c vo vic pht hnh vn iu l

C phiu s cp (Primary) C phiu th cp (Secondary)

Cn c vo quyn ca c ng C phiu ph thng (Common) C phiu u i (Preffered)

Cch phn

loi phbin nht


8/53

8

So snh c phiu u i v c

phiu ph thng Khng c quyn b phiu C phiu c mc c tc hoc t sut c

tc (tnh trn mnh gi) c nh Li c tc cao hnso vi c phiu ph

thng

c i vn gp trcc ng c cphiu ph thng khi cng ty ph sn


9/53

9

Bin th ca c phiu u i C phiu u i cng dn

Li c tc l nhng khon n phi tr C phiu u i tham d

C tc tng nu c tc ca c phiu phthng vt qua mt mc nht nh

C phiu u i c th chuyn i C th chuyn i thnh c phiu phthng trong nhng iu kin nht nh


10/53

10

Quyn ca ngi s hu c

phiu ph thng Quyn b phiu Quyn hng c tc Quyn mua c phiu mi trc th

trng Quyn tip cn thng tin


11/53

11

nh gi c phiu Gi tr c phiu Phng php xc nh gi c phiu

DDM (Dividend discount model)

P/E ratio (Price/Earning)


12/53

12

Gi tr c phiu Gi tr k ton ca c phiu

(Book value)

Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu(Liquidity value)

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu(Market value)


13/53

13

Gi tr k ton ca c phiu

(Book value) L gi tr ti sn rng (net worth) ca

cng ty trn mi c phiu theo bng

cn i ti sn (balance sheet) Thi imcui nm


14/53

14

Gi tr thanh khon ca c

phiu (Liquidity value) Gi tr thanh khon ca c phiu l

khon tin thu c trn mt c phiu

t vic bn tt c ti sn hin c cacng ty trn th trng v tr cc khonn


15/53

15

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu

(Market value) Gi tr th trng ca c phiu thng

phi ln hn gi tr thanh khon hay gi

tr k ton. Ti sao ? Nu khng, vic kt hp cc ti sn

sn xut kinh doanh ch l v ngha vn khng lm tng gi tr ca ti sn


16/53

16

Gi tr th trng ca c phiu(Market value)

3 yu t dn n s chnh lch giagi tr th trng v cc gi tr k ton,

gi tr thanh khon Kh nng thu li nhun cao (Extra earning

power)

Ti sn v hnh (Intangible assets) Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trong

tng lai (Value of future investment)


17/53

17

Kh nng thu li nhun cao(Extra earning power)

Mt cng ty c th c t sut li nhunln hn t sut li nhun trung bnh

trn th trng

Do , gi tr c phiu (gi tr cng ty)khi s ln hn gi tr k ton v gitr thanh khon


18/53

18

Ti sn v hnh(Intangible assets)

Mt s ti sn khng c phn nh khilp bng cn i k ton

Ti sn v hnh (Cc cng thc

iu ch thuc)


19/53

19

Gi tr ca ca cc khon u t trongtng lai (Value of future investment)

Nu cc nh u t tin rng cng ty st mc t sut li nhun cao trong

tng lai th h s chp nhn mua cphiu vi gi cao hn gi c phiu hinti

V d: C phiu Nescape tng 15 lntrong ngy giao dch u tinNescape

nevigator

Nim tin ca

cc nh u t


20/53

20

Gi tr c phiu

Vy, gi c phiu (gi tr th trng)khng phi l gi tr k ton hay gi tr

thanh khon.Stock Price

Presentearning

Futureearning

Intangible

assets income

Tangible assets

income

Future

perfomance


21/53

21

Phng php xc nh gi cphiu

C 3 phng php xc nh gi cphiu M hnh chit khu dng c tc

(DDM-Dividend discount model)

Phng php ch s

(P/E ratio) Phng php chit khu dng tin

(Discounted Cashflow model)


22/53

22

M hnh chit khu c tc(DDM)

M hnh chit khu dng c tc cho phpxc nh gi c phiu khi bit c tc c tr

tng thi k v li sut yu cu Cng thc tng qut :

31 2

0 1 2 3. . . ...

1 1 1 1

t

t

s s s s

D DD DP

k k k k

C tc khngtr li gc

t


23/53

23


Nu ti nm th H, gi c phiu l PH th gihin ti l:

31 2

0 1 2 3. . .

1 1 1 1

H H

H

s s s s

DD D D PP

k k k k

Vi gi nh mc li sut chit khu ks, chod cc nh u t gi c phiu trong1,2,hay H nm ri sau bn th gi c

phiu thi im hin ti vn khng thay i


24/53

24


Vi mc li sut khng i 8%/nm, gi cphiu Blue Skies khng thay i bt k nh

u t s gi c phiu trong bao lu


25/53

25


Nu c phiu c gi cng lu th gi trhin ti ca cc khon c tc trong tng lai

cng tng v gi tr hin ti ca PHcng gim


26/53

26



27/53

27

M hnh tng trng c tc(Constant growth DDM)

M hnh tng trng c tc l mttrng hp c bit ca m hnh chit

khu c tc trong c tc hng nmc gi nh tng trng mt t lkhng i g


28/53

28


Cng thc:

1

1 0

2

2 0

3

3 0

0

(1 )(1 )

(1 )

...

(1 )N

N

D D gD D g

D D g

D D g

31 2

0 1 2 3. . . ...

1 1 1 1

t

t

s s s s

D DD DP

k k k k

0 1

0

(1 )

s s

D g DP

k g k g


29/53

29


Vy nu bit tc tng trng c tc, gic phiu v c tc nm u th c th tnh

c li sut yu cu ks

kskhng b chi phi trc tip bi D1 v g ksl li sut yu cu trn th trng v c th

c dng tnh gi c phiu cng loi

1

0

s

Dk g

P

??


30/53

30


T l tng trng c tc g l t l tngtrng trong di hn v thng c

d on da trn cng thc

ROE-Return onEquity: l t l giathu nhp ca cngty trn vn c phn

ROE l lisut tiu t

T l thu nhp cacng ty c dng

ti u t


31/53

31


Nhn xt M hnh tng trng c tc khng nh gi

c cc cng ty khng tr c tc thngxuyn

Gi nh quan trng nht: tc tng trngc tc lun khng i v nh hn li sut chitkhu (g


32/53

32


Tnh gi c phiu: Cng ty IFC va tr c tc $2/c phiu

v mc tng trng c tc k vng trnth trng s mi l 5%/nm. Hi cphiu IFC nn c bn vi gi bao

nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l15%/nm?


33/53

33


Tnh tc tng trng c tc: Cng ty CFC s tr c tc $5/c phiu

vo nm sau. C phiu CFC ang cbn vi gi $50/c phiu. Tc tngtrng c tc l bao nhiu nu bit cc

cng ty nh CFC thng c mc lisut yu cu l 14%/nm?


34/53

34


Tnh li sut chit khu: C phiu cng ty X ang bn vi gi

$40/c phiu. C tc tr nm sau l$4/c phiu. Nu li sut ti u t cacng ty l 15%/nm v cng ty dnh40% thu nhp ti u t th li sutchit khu l bao nhiu?


35/53

35


Mt c phiu c mc c tc k vngtrong 3 nm u ln lt l: $1,

$1.25,$1.5. Cc nh u t cho rnggi c phiu sau 3 nm s l $20/cphiu. Hi gi c phiu hin ti l bao

nhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l10%/nm?


36/53

36


C phiu X c mc c tc sau 3 nmu khng i l $2. Sau c tc tng

vi tc khng i l 6%/nm. Hi cphiu X hin c bn vi gi baonhiu nu bit li sut chit khu l

13%/nm?


37/53

37


Cng ty ABC thuc ngnh cng nghip angsuy thoi. Doanh thu, li nhun v c tc u

gim mc 10%/nm. C tc va tr nmnay l $3 a. Khi no c th p dng m hnh tng trng c

tc trong trng hp ny? Khi gi c phiu

bng bao nhiu, bit li sut chit khu l15%/nm?

b. D on gi c phiu nm sau l bao nhiu?


38/53

38

Phng php ch s

Cng thc tnh P/E Phng php tnh P/E


39/53

39

Cng thc tnh P/E

Ch s gi trn thu nhp (P/E) cho bitcc nh u t sn sng tr bao nhiu

tin cho mt ng thu nhp trn bngcn i k ton Gi c phiu ca mt cng ty c tnh

da trn ch s P/E ca mt cng tytng ng


40/53

40

Cng thc tnh P/E

Trong : PAl gi c phiu ca cng ty A PBl gi c phiu ca cng ty B EBl thu nhp ca cng ty B tnh trn 1 c

phiu (Earning per share)

BA A

B

PP E

E

??

Financial analysts:Expected earning

(E1)

WSJ: Presentearning (E0)


41/53

41

Phng php tnh P/E

Da trn cng thc tnh P ca m hnh DDM

D1/E1: L t l tr c tc (dividend payoutratio)

P/E ph thuc vo 3 yu t: T l tr c tc Li sut yu cu T l tng trng c tc

0 1 1

1 s

P D E

E k g


42/53

42

Phng php tnh P/E

T l P/E cao cha hn l tt cho cng ty Nu P/E cao v thu nhp d tnh E1thp th l

du hiu xu Nu t l tr c tc D1/E1cao:

Tt nu cng ty to ra nhiu tin mt Xu nu cng ty thiu nhng c hi u t c li

nhun cao Thng thng P/E cao l du hiu tt

Thu nhp d tnh cao Li sut yu cu thp (Ri ro thp)


43/53

43

ng dng thc t ca P/E L ch s u tin cc nh u t xem xt

khi a ra quyt nh u t. Lun hin din trn bng thng tin c phiu

ca Wall Street Journal Mt s nh phn tch ti chnh khng s

dng P/E

E c th thay i nh creative accountingkhng ng tin cy E1l con s d on nm sau khng tin Thay phn tch P/E bng phn tch Cashflow


44/53

44

Phng php tnh P/E

Tnh P/E

Cng ty CS c li sut ti u t l 20% v

duy tr t l ti u t l 30% thu nhp. Thunhp trn mt c phiu d tnh nm sau l$2. Nh u t k vng mc li sut yu cul 12%. a. Tnh t l P/E b. iu g xy ra i vi P/E nu t l ti u t

gim cn 20% thu nhp? Ti sao? c. Chng minh rng nu t l ti u t bng 0 th

t l E/P gim xung bng mc li sut yu cu


45/53

45

Th trng hiu qu v nhgi chng khon

Gi nh ca m hnh nh gi Th trng hiu qu v nh gi chng

khon


46/53

46

Gi nh ca m hnh nh gi

Cng mt chng khon cc nh u tch c duy nht mt li sut yu cu

Gi nh v th trng cnh tranh honho (Perfect competitve market) Khng ph giao dch (Costless transaction) Cc thng tin min ph (free information)

Th trng vn cc nc pht trint n mc gn hon ho


47/53

47

Th trng hiu qu v nh

gi chng khon Trong mi trng cnh tranh hon ho,

gi chng khon c duy tr mc

cn bng Mc gi cn bng thng rt st vi gi

tr thc ca chng khon

Giao dch min ph Cng b thng tin


48/53

48

Th trng hiu qu v nh

gi chng khonGi thuyt th trng hiu qu: Gi mt chng khon bao hm tt

c cc thng tin lin quan n chngkhon

Gi chng khon phn nh mi thng

tin hin c trn th trng

Th hi h i


49/53

49

Th trng hiu qu v nh gichng khon

Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu c 3 mc:

Th trng hiu qu yu (Weak) Gi chng khon phn nh tt c nhng bin

ng gi trong qu kh Th trng hiu qu trung bnh (Semi-strong)

Gi chng khon phn nh tt c cc thng tinc cng b Th trng hiu qu mnh (Strong)

Gi chng khan phn nh tt c cc thng tin

trn th trng

Thng tincng b

Thng tinni gin

Th t ng hi q nh gi


50/53

50

Th trng hiu qu v nh gichng khon

Cc kt qu nghin cu nh lng ng hquan im th trng hiu qu yu v thtrng hiu qu trung bnh Gi c phiu k sau l kt hp ca gi k trc v

mt bin lng ngu-Maurice Kendall (1953) Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu mnh khng

c cc nh u t chuyn nghip ng h N lc tm kim thng tin ni gin qua mt cc

nh u t khc khng phi l v vng V khng b 11/9 em li khong 15 t USD

cho cc nh u t c thng tin ni gin


51/53

51

9/11 IMPACT ON US STOCK MARKET

22/08 27/08 01/09 06/09 11/09 16/09 21/09 26/09 01/10 06/10 11/10

Close

Volume

Th trng hiu qu v nh gi

chng khon


52/53

52


53/53

Th trng hiu qu mnh

Thi gian: 6-9/9 Chng loi chng khon

Put option ca American va United Airline 5-year treasury notes

Li nhun thu c ton cu: USD 15 billion

Dung lng mi giao dch tng: 5-10 ln

Lnh mua puttng 60 ln

Lnh mua put

$5t

Documents

Chuong 4 - Co phieu