Cleveland. 2008a Test Econ Assump

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|fwefgbd ejnwdf~d f lfwidw(~ }wdldwdjnd l`w SH\~*

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<87 D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




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<8>D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




I\~% f~ xdbb f~ `jd jdx" tjlfiebefw sdnaj`b`hu !swfj~hdjd~e~

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3*7* Lfwidw fssestcd~ s`xfwc we~k

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sd~sdc sad wdbfsdc f~~ti}se`j~ safs f% lfwidw~ fwd we~k jdtswfb"

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<83 D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




3*>* A`t~da`bc" nìitjesu fjc n`tjswu nafwfnsdwe~sen~

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SHI\?NSWU>

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SHI\?LFWI>

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SHL\?ADFW

SHI\?ADFW

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=*34 =*64 =*==⁊⁊

SHI\?SAJK

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<84D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




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lfwidw~( fssestcd s`xfwc swfj~hdjd~e~ }dw ~d lwì ~ìd

}`sdjsefb n`j~dvtdjnd~ `l fc`}sejh SH\~" jdesadw |fwedsu

xf~ ecdjseledc f~ f L\" I\ `w SH\" fjc sae~ vtd~se`j }wdndcdc

fbb ce~nt~~e`j `l SH\~ ej `tw ejsdw|edx~* Sad wd~tbs~ ~a`xdc

safs lfwidw~ celldwdjsefsdc swfj~hdjen }w`nd~~ fjc }w`ctns–

<<*7$ `l lfwidw~ cec j`s wdodns swfj~hdjd~e~ }dw ~d !8=*>$ el

n`j~ecdwejh Idqen` fjc Htfsdifbf `jbu%" uds `jbu 6>*8$

}wdldwwdc |fwedsu G wd}wd~djsejh ~ìd au} sadsenfb n`j~d)

vtdjnd~ `l hw`xejh SH\~ !ejnwdf~dc wdbefjnd `j l`wifb ~ddc

~`twnd~" ejesefbbu aehadw uedbc~ cdnbejejh `|dw seid%* ^ddc }wend

xf~ j`s sad }weifwu e~~td; xadj lfwidw~ xdwd f~kdc sadew

Sfgbd 8 „ Ce~swegtse`j `l wfjkejh }fssdwj~ lwì lfwidw~( }wdldwdjnd wfjkejh `l ifezd |fwedsed~ l`w ~`xejh fjc dfsejh

B`nfse`j !j% ^`xejh Dfsejh

\fwedsu}w`)SH\

\fwedsufjse)SH\

^sw`jh ]w`)SH\

^sw`jh Fjse)SH\

Fbb `sadw }fssdwj~

\fwedsu}w`)SH\

\fwedsufjse)SH\

^sw`jh ]w`)SH\

^sw`jh Fjse)SH\

Fbb `sadw }fssdwj~

Ntgf !663% 1*1 4*> 6<*8 35*6 7=*7 =*5 6>*7 7*< <7*> 76*6

!6=% !<% !65% !4<% !7>% !6% !64% !>% !86%⁊ !73%

Bf ]fbif" ]ejfw cdb Wé`

!S% !4<%

6<*6 1*5 7>*7 >7*6 7=*8 6*1 76*1 >*< 35*6 74*=

!5% !4% !6>% !61% !67% !6% !67% !7% !78%⁊ !63%

Ifu`wvtéj"

A`bhtéj !I% !41%

6*87 6*87 6=*> <4*4 7=*8 = 4*7 6*8 84*5 68*7

!6% !6% !<% !>1%⁊ !67% !>% !6% !33%⁊ !6=%

Htfsdifbf !66=% =*5 <*3 >4*4 3>*< 6>*< = 64*4 6*1 84*4 8*>

!6% !8% !>5% !31% !64% !68% !7% !1>%⁊ !1%

Db Wdoþj"

^fnfsd}dvtdz !S% !44%

6*1 6=*5 >*< 8<*3 8*> = 63*< = 81*> 8*>

!6% !<% !7% !37%⁊ !3% !1% !3>%⁊ !3%

Bf Iævtejf"

^tnaesd}dvtdz !I% !44%

= 6*1 <8*> 7=*= 5*= = 6<*3 >*< 87*8 8*>

!6% !>8%⁊ !66% !4% !5% !7% !3=%⁊ !3%

Iåqen` !66=% = 7=*= 6*1 <<*3 66*1 = 7=*= = 8>*< <*3

!77% !7% !8>%⁊ !6>% !77% !16%⁊ !8%

^sf Ejdz Ufszdnad"

@fqfnf !S% !44%

= 74*4 = <6*1 67*8 = 74*4 = 8=*5 >*<

!63% !>3%⁊ !8% !63% !>5%⁊ !7%

Nìesfjnebb`"

@fqfnf !I% !44%

= 63*< >*< 8=*5 6=*5 = 63*4 = 8<*3 5*6

!1% !7% !>5%⁊ !<% !1% !37%⁊ !4%

S`sfb !>>3% >*> 6=*4 61*= 4>*= 64*> =*> 6<*7 6*4 8=*3 66*8

!66% !>4% !<=% !688%⁊ !46% !6% !43% !4% !7>4%⁊ !>5%

]dwndjs !jtigdw%* Cfsf lwì ftsa`w~( ~tw|du" ~ìd }wd|e`t~bu }tgbe~adc ej !^`bdwe ds fb*" 7==4%* S 9 swfcese`jfb fhwentbstwfb nìitjesu" I 9

i`cdwj fhwentbstwfb nìitjesu" L\ 9 lfwidw |fwedsu" I\ 9 i`cdwj |fwedsu" SHL\ 9 swfj~hdjen lfwidw |fwedsu" SHI\ 9 swfj~hdjen i`cdwj

|fwedsu" SH\ 9 swfj~hdjen nw`} |fwedsu* Sad ~uig`b ⁊ cdj`sd~ hwdfsdw lwdvtdjnu safj `sadw }fssdwj~ fs safs b`nfse`j xadj ce~swegtse`j `l

lwdvtdjned~ j`s wfjcì" ψ7 sd~s `l h``cjd~~ `l les" ]g=*=4*

<88D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




}wdldwdjndel ~ddc`l |fwedsu G n`~s sad ~fid f~ ~ddc `l F" sa`~d

na``~ejh G ejnwdf~dc `jbu ~behasbu !s` 61*6$%* Ifju lfwidw~

ifu gd wdnd}se|d s` jdx sdnaj`b`hu" a`xd|dw" fnnd}sfjnd `l

sad }w`ctns~ nwdfsdc t~ejh safs sdnaj`b`hu !d*h* ej sae~ nf~d

SH\~% cd}djc~ `j ifju nwesdwef; xd af|d `jbu s`tnadc `j f

ldx `l sad~d ej sae~ wd~dfwna*

We~k f|dw~d fjc we~k jdtswfb lfwidw~ celldw l`w f jtigdw `l

nafwfnsdwe~sen~ wdbd|fjs s` sadew w`bd ej n`j~dw|ejh ifezd

hdjdsen ce|dw~esu !Sfgbd 1%* We~k f|dw~d lfwidw~ ifejsfej

~ehjelenfjsbu hwdfsdw ifezd ce|dw~esu !L\~% ej ~est safj we~k

jdtswfb lfwidw~" fjc wd}`ws b`xdw f|dwfhd ifezd uedbc~* F~

fbwdfcu ~a`xj ej }wd|e`t~ fjfbu~d~" we~k f|dw~d lfwidw~ xdwd

fb~ bd~~ ejsdhwfsdc ejs sadl`wifb ifwkds fjc d~}dnefbbu ~ddc

~u~sdi~" fjc sadu sdjcdc s` wfjk SH\~ b`xdw ej nì}fwe~`j

xesa we~k jdtswfb lfwidw~* Lfwidw~ i`~s ejsdhwfsdc ejs` sad

l`wifb ~ddc fjc ifwkds ~u~sdi~ xdwd i`~s lf|`wfgbd s`xfwc

SH\~ fjc bdf~s bekdbu s` gd ifejsfejejh ifezd hdjdsen

wd~`twnd~ !L\~% ej ~est? 68*3$ `l fbb lfwidw~ `gsfejdc I\ ~ddc

fjjtfbbu lwì sad l`wifb~u~sdi" `l sad~d`jbu >*3$ !7/41% fb~

~`x L\~* L`wdnf~sdc }w`gfgebesed~ d~seifsdc lwì sad `wcdwdc

b`hes i`cdb l`w ~`xejh xesa wfjkejh }fssdwj nbf~~elenfse`j f~

sad cd}djcdjs |fwefgbd wd|dfbdc safs" fnw`~~ fbb nìitjesed~"

lfwidw~ fwd w`thabu sawdd seid~ f~ bekdbu s` wfjk SH\~ fs sad

g`ssì !~sw`jhbu fjse)SH\" ] 9=*45<" *D*9 =*=77% f~ `}}`~dc s`

sad s`} !~sw`jhbu }w`)SH\" ] 9=*7>3" ^*D*9 =*=65% `l safs

nbf~~elenfse`j ~u~sdi* Sat~" `|dwfbb" sad }wdcìejfjs wdodn)

se`j `l SH\~ fi`jh lfwidw~ ej sae~ ~stcu xf~ f~~`nefsdc xesa

ifju `l sad nafwfnsdwe~sen~ su}enfb `l lfwidw~ i`~s ej jddc `l

~t}}`ws lwì fhwentbstwfb wd~dfwna fjc cd|db`}idjs ej|d~s)

idjs~" f~ xdbb f~ sa`~d i`~s bekdbu s` gd n`j~dw|ejh hb`gfbbu

ei}`wsfjs hdjdsen wd~`twnd~ ej ~est fjc f~~ nefsdc ntbstwfb fjc

bejhte~sen ce|dw~esu*

Wdodnse`j gu f ifo`wesu `l lfwidw~ `l sad ifezd xesa aehadw

f|dwfhd uedbc !we~k ~ndjfwe % fjc`l ifezd SH\~ !wfjkejh dqdwne~d%

iehas gd ejsdw}wdsdc f~ ewwfse`jfb `w gf~dc `j bfnk `l kj`xbdchd"

f~ xf~`lsdj n`jnbtcdc ej ifju fhwentbstwfb ejj`|fse j fc }se j

~stced~ ~ejnd sadew cd|db`}idjs ej sad dfwbu 7=sa ndjstwu !l`w f

~tiifwu `l sad~d ~dd ^s`jd" 7==8%* A`xd|dw" sadwd e~ ejnwdf~ejh

wdn hjese`j safs wdodnse j `l ejj |fse`j~ ifu gd gf~dc `j

lfwidw~( wfse`jfb d|fbtfse`j~ `l |fwefgbd~" ~ìd `l xaena ifu

j`s d|dj gd tjcdw~s``c gu wd~dfwnadw~*

Ifju lfwidw~ xd ejsdw|edxdc f}}dfw s` af|d afc dq}dwe)

djnd~ safs fbdwsdc sadi s` }`sdjsefb we~k~ lwì jdx sdnaj`b)

`hed~" ejnbtcejh ifezd I\~" fjc n`jswegtsdc s` sadew

wd~}`j~d~ wdhfwcejh SH\~" f~ ~thhd~sdc gu sadew nìidjs~"

l`w dqfi}bd5? ‒A`x c` xd kj`x es [SH\ ifezdY xebb x`wk xdbb0

^ddc~ fjc `sadw saejh~ c` j`s x`wk adwd sad xfu sadu c` ej

`sadw }bfnd~’; ‒Sae~ ifezd iehas j`s gd h``c gdnft~d es iehas

jddc b`s~ `l xfsdw fjc sdnaj`b`hu s` hw`x’; ‒A`x c` xd wdfbbu

kj`x sae~ xebb gd ~fld0 ]d`}bd nìd adwd s` sd~s idcenejd~ `j

ejcehdj`t~ }d`}bd ej |ebbfhd~" E(|d ~ddj safs sa`~d [idcenejd~Y

nfj gd }è~`j`t~’; ‒Nìidwnefb ~ddc ~`twnd~ fwd tjwdbefgbd"

s`` we~ku l`w lfwidw~* Xafs el sadu c`j(s }w`ctnd fju ~ddc0

Dfna lfwidw jddc~ s` af|d sadew `xj ~ddc" fjc ~ddc safs e~

wehas l`w sad b`nfse`j’; ‒Xafs xd xfjs e~ nbdfj ~ddc safs x`j(s

afwi `tw adfbsa’" ‒Xesa seid sae~ n`tbc afwi t~’; ‒Xa`

kj`x~ el sae~ n`tbc }è~`j t~0’; ‒E wdidigdw djhejddw~

!fhw`jìe~s~% nìejh adwd fjc he|ejh t~ wdnìidjcfse`j~

!fg`ts hw`xejh ifezd%* Safs e~ lejd" gts sadu wdfbbu c` j`s

kj`x sae~ }bfnd’; ‒E af|d ~ddj gfc dlldns~ `l nadienfb~ `j

~èb~" E xfjs s` ~sfu fxfu lwì sad~d kejc~ `l saejh~ bekd

SH\~’; ‒L`w t~ ifezd e~ j`s f gt~ejd~~" es e~ `tw ~t~sdjfjnd’*

4*7* Fwd SH\~ `}seifb l`w we~k jdtswfb lfwidw~0

F~ ce~nt~~dc fg`|d" SH\~ fwdf~~tidc s` gd fj `}seifb na end

l`w we~k jdtswfb" }w`les ifqeiezejh lfwidw~" fjc gf~dc `j sad

nwesdwef t~dc ej sae~ wd~dfwna" safs au}`sad~e~ xf~ t}adbc"

sa`tha l`w f iej`wesu `l lfwidw~* Sat~" `jd wd~}`j~d s` `tw

wd~dfwna n`tbc gd safs ^^SX fhwentbstwd af~s` gd swfj~l`widc

|ef ej|d~sidjs~ fjc ejlwf~swtnstwd ~` safs lfwidw~ nfj i`|d

s`xfwc we~k jdtswfbesu* Sae~ e~ gf~dc `j sad f~~ti}se`j safs

sad wd~`twnd~ s` c` sae~ fwd f|febfgbd" fjc safs SH\~ fwd bd~~

we~ku safj `sadw |fwedsed~ `w gdnft~d swfj~hdjd~e~" ej n`jswf~s

s` n`j|djse`jfb gwddcejh" ‒idwdbu ej| b|d~ sad ejsw`ctnse`j `l

`jd jdx wd~e~sfjnd idnafje~i’ !Vfei" 6555?3==%" fjc ‒hdjd~

fwd ej~dwsdc ejs` f a`~s |fwedsu xesa`ts flldnsejh sad bd|db~ `l

`sadw swfes~ fjc fsswegtsd~’ !Dcidfcd~ fjc îfbd" 7==<?><=%" e~

‒b`x we~k’ l`w d|`btse`j `l wd~e~sfjnd s` hbu}a`~fsd !Vfei fjc

Swfqbdw" 7==4%" Gs }w`sdej~ wdctnd ‒sad we~k f~~`nefsdc xesa

n`ss`j }w`ctnse`j lfebtwd~ nft~dc gu ej~dns ejld~sfse`j~’

!Swfqbdw fjc H`cù)F|ebf" 7==3?<6%" fjc SH\~ fwd bd~~ we~ku

safj ‒j`j)fc`}se`j `w j`j)f|febfgebesu `l sad jdx sdnaj`b hu’

!Na`jh" 7==4?<75%* Lwì sae~ }dw~}dnse|d }`sdjsefb dlldns~ `l

swfj~hdjen nw`} sdnaj`b`hu safs n`tbc ejnwdf~d we~k !uedbc

ej~sfgebesu" ejnwdf~dc ifwkds cd}djcdjnu" jdhfse|d dn`b`henfb

Sfgbd 1 „ Nafwfnsdwe~sen~ `l we~k f|dw~d fjc we~k jdtswfb lfwidw~

Nafwfnsdwe~sen We~k f|dw~d lfwidw~ !j 976=% We~k jdtswfb lfwidw~ !j 967>% Sd~s ~sfse~sen f ] |fbtd

F|dwfhd jtigdw l L\~ hw`xejh !^C% 6*>1 !=*8<% =*55 !=*5=% >*11= =*===

F|dwfhd uedbcg" kh !^C% 6161*3 !671<*1% 7688*3 !6646*<% ∗7*>8= =*=65

^dbb ifezd fs ifwkds 47*77 !6=</7=>% 8=*53 !1>/668% 6=*8<6 =*==6]twnaf~d I\ ~ddc fjjtfbbu 4*86 !67% >8*3= !3<% 43*6>8 =*===

^sw`jh }w`)SH\ wfjkejh~ l`w ifezd l`w ~`xejh <*<8 !63% >8*3= !3<% 35*453 =*===

^sw`jh }w`)SH\ wfjkejh~ l`w ifezd l`w dfsejh 7*>1 !4% =*16 !6% =*>83 =*436

]dwndjs !jtigdw%" tjbd~~ `sadwxe~d j`sdc* Cfsf lwì ftsa`w~( ~tw|du" s`sfb j 9 >>>* L\ 9 lfwidw |fwedsu" I\ 9 i`cdwj |fwedsu" SH\ 9 swfj~hdjen

nw`} |fwedsu*f L`w idfj~ N`nawfj(~ S sd~s; l`w nì}fwe~`j `l lwdvtdjned~ ψ

7 h``cjd~~ `l les sd~s*g Nfbntbfsdc lwì lfwidw)wd}`wsdc ifqeiti" iejeiti fjc i`cfb uedbc~ !f~ cd~nwegdc ej Afwcfkdw ds fb*" 6558%*

5 Sad~d nìidjs~ xdwd wdn`wcdc gu ^`bdwe ctwejh ejsdw|edx~xesa lfwidw~*

<81 D N @ B @ H E N F B D N @ J @ I E N ^ < 8 ! 7 = = 1 % < < 8 „ < 1 7




ejsdwfnse`j~% fwd wfwdbu n`j~ecdwdc* A`xd|dw" SH\~ nfj fb~`

nfwwu aehadw we~k safj j`j)swfj~hdjen nw`} |fwedsed~ gdnft~d

sadu ejnbtcd j`|db hdjdsen n`j~swtns~ fjc sadwd e~ tjkj`xj

}`sdjsefb l`w jdhfse|d hdjìen fjc dn`b henfb dlldns~ !Dbb)

~swfjc" 7==>; Hd}s~" 7==7; Adejdifjj" 7==8; Bt fjc ^j`x"

7==4; ^j`x ds fb*" 7==4%*

Sad wd~tbs~ l`w n`ss`j SH\~ ej sad Saewc X`wbc ej lejfjnefb

fjc uedbc sdwi~ fwd ieqdc" fjc cd}djc `j b`nfb n`jcese`j~

fjc sad ejlwf~swtnstwd jddcdc s` ~t}}`ws sadi !îfbd ds fb*"

7==<%* Fc`}se`j `l SH\~ ifu gd sad wd~tbs `l ~`nefb lfc~ wfsadw

safj wfse`jfb" dn`jìen cdne~e`j ifkejh !^s`jd" 7==8%" `w sad

wd~tbs `l fbsdwjfse|d naènd~ gdejh beiesdc !Xess ds fb*" 7==<%* Ej

fccese`j" i`~s ~stced~ af|d gddj nfwwedc `ts l`w `jbu `jd `w f

ldx udfw~" fjc ~a`ws sdwi ~tnnd~~d~ ifu j`s djctwd* L`w

dqfi}bd" flsdw sawdd udfw~ `l ~tnnd~~ltb }d~s n`jsw`b" xecd)

~}wdfc t~d `l Gs n`ss`j gu ~ifbb)~nfbd lfwidw~ ej Naejf bdc s`

`tsgwdfk~ `l f ~dn`jcfwu }d~s xesa sad wd~tbs safs lfwidw~

hw`xejh swfj~hdjen n`ss`j ~}wfudc sad ~fid fi`tjs `l

}d~senecd fjc afc b`xdw jds wdstwj~ nì}fwdc s` lfwidw~

hw`xejh j`j)swfj~hdjen n`ss`j !Xfjh ds fb*" 7==<%* Ntwwdjsbu"

Gs n`ss`j ej ^`tsa F~ef e~ wd}`wsdc s` gd dq}dwedjnejh f ~eiebfw

}w`gbdi" bdfcejh s` nw`} lfebtwd~ fjc bfwhd ejnwdf~d~ ej

}d~senecd f}}benfse`j~ !]fcif" 7==<; êjha F~ak" 7==8%*

<* N`jnbt~e`j

He|dj sad b`nfb fjc hb`gfb ei}`wsfjnd `l ^^SX fhwentbstwd es e~

twhdjs safs xd d|fbtfsd sad `}se`j~ fjc jdx sdnaj`b`hed~ l`w

ei}w`|ejh es" ejnbtcejh SH\~* D|fbtfse`j jddc~ s` gd gf~dc `j

sad tjevtd nafwfnsdwe~sen~ `l ^^SX fhwentbstwd" ifju `l xaena

fwd |esfb s` es~ }f~s ~tnnd~~ fjc }dw~e~sdjnd !d*h*" ^`bdwe ds fb*"

7==<%* @tw wd~tbs~ aehabehas sad n`jswf~s gdsxddj ^^SX fhwentb)

stwd fjc ejct~swefb fhwentbstwd" xadwd i`~s `l sad SH\~ fjc sad

idsa`c~ l`w d|fbtfsejh fjc wdhtbfsejh sadi af|d gddj cd|db)

`}dc !Nbd|dbfjc fjc ^`bdwe" 7==4; ^`bdwe ds fb*" 7==<%* ^^SX

lfwidw~xa`fwd i`~swe~k f|dw~d"dq}dwedjnejhsad b`xd~s uedbc~"

bdf~s ejsdhwfsdc ejs` i`cdwj fhwentbstwfb ~u~sdi~" ~sdxfwcejh

i`wd nw`} hdjdsen ce|dw~esu ej ~est" fjc i`~s ej jddc `l ~t}}`ws

fjcsdnajenfb ei}w`|didjs~" ifu gd sa`~d bdf~s bekdbu s` fnnd}s

SH\~"l`w~ìd `l sad ~fid wdf~`j~ sadu lejc I\~tjfnnd}sfgbd*

S` d|fbtfsd sad fnntwfnu `l kdu f~~ti}se`j~ ej dn`jìen

wd~dfwna safs ejlbtdjnd~ }`benu xd ej|d~sehfsdc lfwidw~( }wd)

ldwdjnd~ ej ~ndjfwe`~ fjc vtd~se`j~ safs }wd~djsdc sa`~d

f~~ti}se`j~ fjc ~ìd fbsdwjfse|d~* @tw lejcejh~ cec j`s

~t}}`wssad kduf~~ti}se j~safsSH\~ fwd`}seifb fjclfwidw~

xebb }wdldw sadi `w safs lfwidw~ fwd we~k jdtswfb* Ej~sdfc" sad

ifo wesu `l wd~}`jcdjs~ }wdldwwdc s` f| ec SH\~ l`w ~`xejh fjc

d~}dnefbbu dfsejh" `}eje`j~ f~~`nefsdc xesa gdejh we~k f|dw~d*

Dn`jìen wd~dfwna `j SH\~ safs ejnbtcd~ sad~d fjc~eiebfw

f~~ti}se j~ ifu n`jswf~s xesa dn`jìen sad wu" gts l`w

~ei}benesu(~ ~fkd" `w ctd s` bfnk `l `sadw cfsf fjc sad

nafbbdjhd~ `l f}}bedc wd~dfwna" ~tna f~~ti}se j~ }dw~e~s"

fjc ejlbtdjnd }`benu* êiebfwbu" sx` dn`jìe~s~ af|d fbbtcdc

s` sad ce~otjns safs nfj dqe~s gdsxddj dn`jìen sad`wu ej

hdjdwfb sdwi~ fjc es~ f}}benfse`j ‒ej sad ledbc’? ‒Jd`nbf~~enfb

sad`we~s~ af|d gu fjc bfwhd fgfjc`jdc dn`jìen ifj fjc

}dwldns nì}dsese`j; a`xd|dw" sad }`benu wdnìidjcfse`j~ l

dn`jìe~s~ fwd ~sebb gf~dc `j sad~d `tscfsdc wd}wd~djsfse`j~

`l atifj gdaf|e`w fjc nìi`cesu }w`ctnse`j* Jd`nbf~~enfb

xdblfwd dn`jìen~ n`jsejtd~ s` `lldw gfc fc|end ej cdfbejh

xesa ~ìd `l sad i`~s }wd~~ejh dj|ew`jidjsfb fjc ~`nefb

e~~td~ lfndc ej sad sxdjsu)lew~s ndjstwu" ejnbtcejh hw`xejh

ejnìd ce~}fwesu" hb`gfb nbeifsd nafjhd fjc ge`ce|dw~esu b`~~’

!H`xcu fjc Dwenk~`j" 7==4%*

F~ xf~ sad nf~d xadj ifju ^^SX lfwidw~ wdodnsdc hwddj

wd|`btse`j I\~" sad ifej~swdfi wd~}`j~d s` lfns`w~ ce~n`twf)

hejh lfwidw~ lwì fc`}sejh SH\~ e~ safs sa`~d fwd `g~sfnbd~ s`

gd wdi`|dc" fjc safs ej|d~sidjs~ jddc s` gd ifcd ej nwdfsejh

‒fj djfgbejh dj|ew`jidjs…ejnbtcejh ~`ne`dn`jìen fjc

}`besenfb lfns`w~’ fjc dctnfse`j `l lfwidw~ fjc n`j~tidw~

!cd Hw `sd ds fb*" 7==3% s` ~t}}`ws SH\~* A`xd|dw" ~tna

wd~}`j~d~ c` j`s n`j~ecdw sad ldf~egebesu `w cd~ewfgebesu `l

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Cleveland. 2008a Test Econ Assump