Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines Climate Information Applications for Drought Mitigation In Asia Pacific region- ADPC Experiences

Climate Forecast Applications: Philippines

Climate Information Applicationsfor Drought Mitigation

In Asia Pacific region- ADPC Experiences


Structure of the presentation

Drought in Asia and Pacific region – Over view

ADPC experience in managing Droughts in Asia –Connecting Science and Society

Relevance of ADPC Experience for Drought management in India

A way forward

Number of Occurrence of Drought/Famine Disasters by Country (1974 – 2003)

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation

0- 56 - 10>10

Drought Affected Population 1975 to 1999

World Drought Figures

19%

4%

74%

1%

1%

1%

Africa

Americas

Asia

Europe

European Union

Oceania

El Niño impact on rice production, Philippines

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

11000

12000

13000

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98

Year

Pal

ay P

rod

uct

ion

( x

100

0 M

T)

El Nino

El NinoEl Nino El Nino

Climate Risk Management

El Niño impact on water resources, Philippines

Angat Reservoir normal water level

Angat Reservoir 1998 water level


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Imp

or

(juta

ton

)

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

30.0

31.0

32.0

33.0

34.0

Pro

du

ksi beras (ju

ta ton

)Banned using 57 pesticides

Release of HY var., increase of rice price

Withdraw subsidy for pesticide

El-Nino

Release of HY var. and extensification of planting area to plantation areas

El-Nino

El-Nino

Improve technology and extensification

Withdraw subsidy, political crisis

Crash program for irrigation, increase of rice price, upland rice

Imp

ort

(M

illio

n T

on

nes

)R

ice Pro

du

ction

(Mill io

n T

on

nes)

National Rice Production

El Niño impact on rice production, IndonesiaClimate Risk Management

Monsoon - Inter-seasonal Variability

Climate Effects of El Nino


Forecast Product Constraints

Forecast information too general in terms of space and time

Forecast needs are at local level

Forecast information timing does not match user needs

Forecast information received from different sources have conflicting messages

Forecast information language not clearly understood by users

The need

Science based information that is

understandable and usable by all users,

policy and decision makers local

institutions and at risk Communities


CFA

ProjectInitiation

Research Utilization of Research Products

Climate Forecast Applications Process

• Reduced vulnerability to climate risks

• Minimize losses

• Maximize benefits of favorable climate

Partnership development

Selection of demonstra-tion sites

Socio- economic problem formulation, impact analysis

Analysis of institutional landscape, decision and policy models

Obtain climate information

Analysis of variability and predictability

Regional climate modeling

Down-scaling

Retrospective analysis on performance of decision system

Decision system

Formulate policy changes for climate information utilization

Retrospective analysis on adoption of new policies

Experimen-tal uptake

Capacity building for upscaling

Climate Forecast

Applications

Angat Dam, Angat Dam, BulacanBulacan

Mindanao

Nusa Tenggara Timur

Citarum Catchment

IndramayuIndramayu

Iloilo

West Kalimantan

Cebu

Pilot Locations

Climate Forecast

Applications

End-to-end climate information generation and application system

Providing climate outlook

Interpreting global climate outlook into local outlook

Translating local climate outlook into impact scenarios

Communication of response options/ feedback

Climate Forecast

Applications

Institutional mechanism: Philippines

GLOBAL CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS

Sea Surface Temperature AnomaliesRainfall Anomalies

Temperature Anomalies

CAB/ PAGASA/ DOST

Analysis / Downscaling techniques / Impact assessment procedures /

Forum Discussion

Tailored Local Climate Forecasts / Advisories (I loilo)

CLIMATE PATTERNS TRENDS

Near-real-time Data

HISTORICAL DATA AND INFORMATION

Episodic Events Documents

Dumangas Agromet Station

TWG CLIMATE FORUM

Prov’l Agricultural Officer Municipal Agricultural Officers

NIA Region VI Dumangas Agromet Station Officer

Farmers Reps. Local Irrigation System Office

IMPACTS / DECISION OUTLOOKS / ADVISORIES

FARMERS

Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Translation of Global Climate Forecasts into Impacts / Decision Outlooks Outlooks and Advisories for the Endand Advisories for the End--User Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, IloiloUser Farmers of Dumangas and Tigbauan, Iloilo

Climate Forecast

Applications

Institutional mechanism: Indonesia

Provision of climate outlook

BMG

IPB

Translation of climate outlook

into impact outlook

Indramayu Agriculture Office

Conversion of impact outlook into crop management

strategies

Dissemination of information to farmers and evaluation of

farmers responseDirectorate of Plant Protection (DITLIN)

Climate Forecast

Applications

Climate Forecast Applications Demonstration sites: Indonesia

Indramayu, West Java

Kupang,Nusa Tenggara Timur

New Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for

Indramayu

DPM 6

DPM 7

RATA-2 HUJAN BULANAN (mm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

J F M A M J J A S O N D

RATA-2 HUJAN BULANAN (mm)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Old Climate Forecast Region (DPM) for

Indramayu

Indonesia


Impact outlook 2003, Indramayu, West Java

Red Areas in DPM 4 and 6 might be seriously affected by drought as onset of DS a bit earlier than normal and characteristic of rainfall would be BN


Response plan prepared by farmers group, Indramayu

Mid April

Late March


F A R M E R S

Farmer Groups

P1-1

P1-2P1-2 P1-2

F A R M E R S

Farmer Groups

P1-1P1-1

P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2P1-2P1-2 P1-2

Implementation

Stage 1: training of agricultural extension specialists (district level)

Stage 2: training of agricultural extension workers (sub-district)

Stage 3: training of heads of farmers groups

Stage 4: training of farmers

Climate risk management schools:Climate Risk Management

Climate Forecast

Applications

Farmers in Losarang show a rainfall graph, which they created from their own rainfall observations using locally-fabricated rain gauges. The farmers are now pilot testing a new planting calendar based on their enhanced understanding of rainfall patterns in their locality.

Climate Forecast

Applications

Farmer participants in Indramayu Climate Field School studying the process of rainfall formation

Farmers’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans

Farmers of Kelompok Tani Makmur got good harvest in DS 2004, while neighboring villages did not get anything as they made a wrong decision not to plant.

Climate Forecast

Applications

Priority Areas of Climate Field School (Jawa)

Climate Forecast

Applications

Climate Field School: replication

2004

10 DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet Indramayu

BandungCirebonSragenMalangLahatBanjarMinahasaMarosJembrana

2005

10 DistrictsANFIS,Kalman,NonLin.,PCA

+20 DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet,ANFIS, Kalman,NonLin.,PCA

2006

Validation30 Districts

30 New DistrictsARIMA, Wavelet,ANFIS, Kalman,NonLin.,PCA

Numerical Model 10 Districts

s/w model stat.MR1234

PC Cluster u/ Numerical Model Expand PC Cluster

Climate Forecast

Applications

CFA Program: stakeholders-initiated replication

DITLIN: Recent institutional development

SUB BAGIAN TATA USAHADrs. Agung Wradsongko, MP

SUBDIT ANALISIS & MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM

Ir. Jatmiko SUBDIT PENGELOLAAN PHT

Ir. Sarsito WGS, MM

SEKSI KELEMBAGAANIr. B. Indriastuti K

SEKSI PEMASYARAKATANIr. Dyah Mutiawari

SUBDIT PENGENDALIAN OPT

Ir. Hari Utomo

SEKSI OPT SEREALIADrs. Ruswandi, MM

SEKSI OPT KACANG-2AN DAN UMBI-2AN

Ir. Ety Purwanti

KELOMPOK JABATAN FUNGSIONAL

BALAI PENGUJI MUTU PRODUK TANAMAN

Ir. Yayah Roliyah, M Si

SEKSI ANALISI IKLIMIr. Irwan Kamal

SEKSI MITIGASI DAMPAK IKLIM

Ir. Endang Titi P. MM

DIREKTUR PERLINDUNGAN TANAMAN

Ir. Ati Wasiati

*Subdivision on Climate Analysis and Mitigation

SEKSI PELAYANAN TEKNIK

Drs. Oscar Rulli

SEKSI PENGELOLAAN SAMPLE

Dra. Tantri Indrianti

SUB BAGAIN TATA USAHASuparjo

SUB DIT PENGELOLAHAN DATA

OPTIr. Fatra Widjaya,

M Si

SEKSI INFORMASI & DOKUMENTASI

Ir. Yarmiati Munaf

SEKSI MONITORINGDrs. Tigor Sagala

Applications Project: Planning and Management

WMO El Niño advisory, 2006

Characteristics of El Nino 2006/2007 isQuite similar to 2002/2003

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990 1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

SS

T A

no

ma

ly a

t N

ino

3.4

(oC

)

Delay Onset of RS 2002 and BN rainfall in DS2003

?


2006 2007

BMG provide forecast onAugust/updated in October

Climate Team at Agriculture Office held meeting with related field staffs from related agencies to prepare action plans for managing possible flood and drought risk in 2007 and inputs for Regent for inter-sectoral meeting and instruction letter for sub-districts

Monitor climate and provide forecast onApril 2007

Select options and conduct the selected option

Implement anticipation actions (early planting and accelerating WS planting)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Month

Pla

ntin

g A

rea (

000 h

a)

Normal

El Nino

La Nina

Preparing program for supporting the action plans and socialization

Translation

Institutional support – local government initiates and facilitates

Contacting agriculture inputs distributors to provide enough fertilizers, seed

stocks for supporting early planting and accelerating planting for WS

2006/2007


Revolving fund (loan without interest and pay back period within 2-4 seasons) for assisting farmers to implement management options in DS2007 (planting non-rice crops)

Funding for 950 ha (700 ha for soybean and 250 ha for maize) – local government budget

Seeds supply (1000 ha for maize and 2150 ha for soybean) – central government budget

Establishing agreement with Sucofindo to provide market for the farmers products (soybean and maize)

30.6

28.9

40.5

1877

22.4

0.3

77.3

1891

44.1

24.3

31.6

1899

19.3

10.7

70

1901

17.5

16.9

65.6

1904

25.2

1262.8

1905

27.9

1.2

70.9

1907

13

15.4

71.6

1911

24.5

75.5

1913

18.8

3.4

77.8

1915

44.03

25.7

30.27

1918

35.7

2.3

62

1920

21.1

78.9

1925

17.8

10.7

71.5

1939

35.5

64.5

1941

35.1

64.9

1951

38.3

61.7

1965

35.4

64.6

1966

21.9

78.1

1968

36.6

3.8

59.6

1972

27.1

6.9

66

1974

29.1

70.9

1982

23.6

6.7

69.7

1985

16.7

3

80.3

1986

29.8

17.9

52.3

1987

Moderate Drought – Rainfall Deficiency 26% to 50% of the Normal

Severe Drought – Rainfall Deficiency Exceeding 50% of the Normal Rainfall Normal

Area of the Country affected by Moderate and Severe Drought

2002

1877

1918

1899

20021987

Drought Shocks and Policy Response

1877

Drought Events

Major Policy Interventions

Famine Codes

1965

Green Revolution and FCI

Scarcity Relief

1972

Employment Generation Programmes

Drought Relief

1979

ContingencyCropPlan

DroughtManagement

1987

WatershedApproach

WaterManagement

2002? ? ? ?

Each round represent death of one million people

Each round represent around fifty million people affected

1972 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall 1987 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall

2002 Monsoon – Daily Evolution of rainfall

Monsoon Aberration 2002Drought 2002

Potential Application of Climate Information

• Contingency planning with climate archive

Seasonal Rainfall - 2002 Rajasthan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Ajm

er

Alw

ar

Bansw

ara

Bara

n

Bhara

tpur

Bhilw

ara

Bundi

Chitt

org

arh

Dausa

Dholp

ur

Dungarp

ur

Jaip

ur

Jhala

war

Jhunjh

unu

Kara

uli

Kota

Rajs

am

and

Saw

ai M

adhopur

Sik

ar

Sirohi

Tonk

Udaip

ur

Barm

er

Bik

aner

Churu

Sri G

anganagar

Hanum

angarh

Jais

alm

er

Jalo

re

Jodhpur

Nagaur

Pall

Districts

Rain

fall (

mm

)

June July August September Seasonal Normal

Potential Application of Climate Information

• Contingency planning with climate archive

Seasonal Rainfall - 1987 Rajasthan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Ajm

er

Alw

ar

Bansw

ara

Bara

n

Bhara

tpur

Bhilw

ara

Bundi

Chitt

org

arh

Dausa

Dholp

ur

Dungarp

ur

Jaip

ur

Jhala

war

Jhunjh

unu

Kara

uli

Kota

Rajs

am

and

Saw

ai M

adhopur

Sik

ar

Sirohi

Tonk

Udaip

ur

Barm

er

Bik

aner

Churu

Sri G

anganagar

Hanum

angarh

Jais

alm

er

Jalo

re

Jodhpur

Nagaur

Pall

Districts

Rain

fall (

mm

)

June July August September Seasonal Normal

Potential Application Potential Application of of Extended Weather PredictionExtended Weather Prediction

Prediction of dry and wet Prediction of dry and wet spells of in the scale ofspells of in the scale of 20-25 days could assist 20-25 days could assist Critical operational planning Critical operational planning In agricultureIn agriculture

Gaps

Dissemination to at-risk communities

Observation/ monitoring

Warning formulation

Community response

Data analysis

Prediction Risk assessment

Emergency response plansPublic education/ awarenessMitigation programs

Potential impact assessment

Preparation of response options

Aging and insufficient observation and data communication facilities

Numerical prediction capability Skilled human resource Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts

Local level potential impact assessment not done

Language Localized, relevant

Institutional mechanism, linkages SOPs Redundant communication systems Reach to special groups

Data sharing among agencies

Public awareness Communication of forecast limitations Lack of trainers/ facilitators Resources to respond to warning

Regulatory framework for warning Stakeholders involvement and roles

ADPC-Facilitated Regional Multi-Hazard Warning System


What ADPC Could offer ? Facilitate development and Application of Tailor-

made User friendly Drought risk information by connecting Science and Society

Facilitate development of End-end Institutional system through pilot experiments

Promotes a Culture Managing Climate Variability –by treating drought as a normal feature of climate variability.

Facilitate Share of best practices -Global ,regional and National and Local stakeholders

ADPC intervention:

Global climate information providers

Intermediate users

End-users

ADPC ADPC

National met agenciesAgricultureWater resources


Current capacities of countries in generating actionable severe weather warning informationSurface observation system

Upper observation system

Data communication facilities

Ability to draw data from Global network

Availability of historical data base

Trained man power in NWP

Computing facilities for NWP

Down scaling to generate tailor made forecast

Interpretation and translation into user friendly forecast

Bangladesh 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0

Cambodia 2 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 0

China 4 4 4 5 4 3 4 2 2

Lao PDR 2 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0

Maldives 3 2 3 3 2 2 2 0 0

Myanmar 2 0 2 2 2 0 0 0 0

Philippines 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 2 2

Sri Lanka 3 2 2 3 3 2 3 0 0

Thailand 4 4 3 5 3 3 3 2 2

Vietnam 3 2 3 3 2 2 3 0 2

ECONOMIC IMPACTS ASSESSMENT FRAME WORK

The ADPC-Facilitated Multi-HazardEarly Warning System in the

Indian Ocean and Southeast AsiaA.R. Subbiah, Director, Climate Risk Management

Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

Partners

Farmers groups

Climate Forecast Applications for Disaster Mitigation

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03

An

nu

al G

SD

P G

ro

wth

R

ate

, %

Bureau of Meteorology and Geophysics

Directorate of Crop Protection, Ministry of Agriculture

Bogor Agricultural University

Central Bureau of Statistics

BULOG (National food logistics agency)

Ministry of Regional Infrastructure

BAKORNAS BPB(National coordinating agency for disaster management)

CARE International in Indonesia

Provincial governments: West Java and Nusa Tenggara Timur

Office of the Bupati, Indramayu Regency, West Java

PAGASA(Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Department of Agriculture

Bureau of Agricultural Statistics

National Irrigation Administration

National Water Resources Board

National Disaster Coordinating Council

Dumangas Municipal Government

Local NGOs

Farmers groups

National Power Corporation


Communicating uncertainty: Climate Field School for journalists

Climate Field School Helps Farmers Set-up Planting Strategy

Farmers’ confidence on climate forecast increased by validating forecasts through rainfall observation in farms using rain gauges made from milk cans

BMG

Analyzing Climate Forecast

Management Options (in the form of instruction letter from Regent

Field Observation on pest and Diseases

Distribute the Instruction of the Regent to head of sub-district

Head of Sub-District transmit the instruction and guidance to Kuwu

after adjustment

Farmer Group

Farmers

Issued guidance for managing crop when

there is symptoms

Climate Team under Sub Division of Food Crop

Issued by Regent or secretary

By Pest and diseases observers assisted by sub-district staff

By Head of Agriculture Office

Extension Workers/ Pest and Diseases Observers

Early or late of the month depend on

location and irrigation schedule

Oct

ober

Sep

t/O

ctJu

ne/J

uly

Aug

ust

Provide revolving fund for farmers in vulnerable areas for managing climate risks

Apr

ilM

arch

/Par

ilJa

nuar

yF

ebru

ary

1st 2nd

Increase media roleIn disseminating the information!

Communication flow

D. Mainstreaming into development process

In agribusiness

Farmers cooperative to take part in business activities for agriculture inputs activities and marketing

Pro-active in establishing partnership with other entities in agribusiness (such as market linkage) etc

Institutional development within the Ministry of Agriculture

Creation of Sub-division on climate analysis and mitigation Ongoing efforts to establish a National Extension Workers Network

Funding support from local development fund


Municipal Council

resolution providing

for annual

appropriation to

support climate

forecast applications