Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展－－变革和挑战

Consolidation in the U.S. Pig IndustryChanges and Challenges

美国养猪业的整合发展－－变革和挑战

Donald E. Orr, Jr.

President, JBS United, Inc.

Chairman Elect – American Feed Industry Association

当奥博士，美国联合营养公司，总裁

美国饲料工业协会，主席（当选）

Seven Pillars of Hog Production 　养猪生产的七大支柱

– Access to affordable feed grains有充足的优价饲料资源

– Infrastructure costs 　基础设施成本– Regulatory requirements 　法规要求– Access to and cost of capital 　资金来源和成本– Labor cost and availability 　劳动力成本和来源– Management expertise and practice 　

管理经验和手段– Large domestic market pork consumption 　

当地的消费市场

RaboBank, 2005

Largest Pork Producers 2007 　美国养猪公司排名

Rank Name of Operation Headquarters # Sows

1 Smithfield Foods Smithfield, VA 1,227,000

2 Triumph Foods St. Joseph, MO 403,700

3 Seaboard Foods Shawnee Mission, KS 213,600

4 Iowa Select Farms Iowa Falls, IA 150,000

5 Prestige Farms Clinton, NC 142,000

6 The Pipestone System Pipestone, MN 135,600

7 The Maschhoff’s, Inc. Carlyle, IL 115,000

8 Cargill Minneapolis, MN 107,000

9 AMVC Management Audubon, IA 95,000

10 Maxwell Foods, Inc. Goldsboro, NC 85,000

11 Tyson Foods Springdale, AR 70,000

12 Hormel Foods Austin, MN 63,000

Top 1-20 Producers Total 3,124,700

Firm size(thousand head mktd. annually)

1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

Less than 1 32% 23% 17% 5% 2% 1% 1%

1 - 2 19 20 17 12 7 8 5

2 - 3 11 13 12 10 5

3 - 5 10 12 12 10 7 4 3

5 - 10 9 10 12 10 10 9 6

10 - 50 12 13 13 16 18 19 21

50+ 7 9 17 37 51 59 65

Share of Annual U.S. Hog Slaughter by Year and Size Category 美国不同规模的养猪公司年生猪宰杀比例

U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006

University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

Firm Size (thousand head mktd. annually) 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

50 - 500 57 127 136 149 164

500+ 9 18 20 24 27

Number of Large Firms Producing Hogs 　美国大型猪场数量



How Firms Plan to Expand 2006-09:Percent of U.S. Hogs Owned by All Firms Reporting

猪场扩张展望Percent

of Hogs

Do not plan to market more hogs 28%

Market more through existing facilities 34%

Construct new facilities 50%

Purchase existing facilities 11%

Contract for more finishing space 10%



Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1996-2008 　美国依阿华州养猪盈利

Iowa State University Calculations

-70

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

$ Per Head

Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Cost of Slaughter Hog Production 　美国生猪成本

Iowa State University Calculations, 1990-2008

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Marketing Month

$ Per Live Cwt

Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

Changes in live weight in Midwest USA herds over 20 years.

美国上市生猪体重变化

Changes in whole herd feed efficiency in Midwest USA herds over

20 years. 　美国猪群饲料报酬变化

Feed: gain changes adjusted for live weight 　饲料报酬以体重调整后的变化

2.002.20

2.40

2.60

2.80

3.00

3.20

3.40

3.60

3.80

4.00

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Throughput Trends in US 　 (Agri-Metrics) 　上市体重变化

243246

248250

253255

257 258

262264

240.0

245.0

250.0

255.0

260.0

265.0

270.0

96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

MKt Wt,lb

Throughput Trends in US 　 (Agri-Metrics) 　每头母猪年生产小猪头数

20.8 20.921.1 21.2 21.3

21.5 21.621.8 21.9 22

20

21

21

22

22

23

23

96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

PSY

Throughput Trends in US

(Agri-Metrics) 　每头母猪年生产猪肉量

46584719

48064868

49285015

50765141

52235283

4500

4600

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

5300

5400

96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

Lb/Sow/Yr



Production Information 2006:Percent of All U.S. Hogs Affected 　二○○六年猪场生产情况

Feed is self-prepared 54%

Replacement gilts are purchased 32%

Hogs are raised indoors 94%

Feeding is split sex 64%

Facilities are wean-finish 29%

Grain raised by own firm 35%

Grain Market Factors 　谷物市场因素• Energy Prices 能源价格

– Biofuels

• World Supply 　世界供应– Grain carryovers declining

• Growing World Demand 　世界需求增长• Weak Dollar 　美元疲软

– Encourages exports– Inputs more expensive

• Feed Demand 　饲料需求• Fund Trading 　资金需求• Market Volatility 　市场浮动

– Risk premiums

• Inflation 　通胀• Credit Crunch 　信用（资金）限制• Acreage Balance/Expected Production 　种植面积 / 生产供应• Weather 　气候变化

Use of AI in the USA Swine Industry 　人工授精技术的使用

• 1990 only 5% of the sow were artificially inseminated

• 2000 approximately 60% were bred with AI

• 2007 > than 90% bred with AI

• Typical dose is 75-80 ml, 2.5-3 billion sperm cells/dose

Singleton, WL. 2001. Theriogenology 56:1305-1310

Firm Size (thousand head mktd.)

1-3 3-5 5-10 10-50 50-500 500+

Collected by firm 10% 25% 16% 26% 11% 86%

Purchased 77% 69% 70% 63% 71% 33%

Part-owned stud 13% 5% 14% 11% 23% 14%

Where Firms Acquired Semen 　猪精来源(percent of firms responding in size category)




1-3 3-5 5-10 10-50 50-500 500+

Load by load 82% 65% 67% 57% 28% 32%

Negotiated contract 9% 16% 16% 35% 38% 89%

Group contract 10% 17% 19% 21% 56% 5%

Own packing plant 4% 5% 9% 10% 4% 42%

Other 4% 7% 7% 4% 1% 5%

How Firms Marketed Slaughter Hogs, 2006　生猪是怎样销售的

(percent of firms in size category)



Percent of Hogs Sold on Carcass Merit Basis 　依胴体价值定价

Firm Size (thousand head mktd. annually)



63

80 8076

97 99

81

93

8589

9598

80

91 90 9298 100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1-3 3-5 5-10 10-50 50-500 500+

Percent

2000

2003

2006

Firm Size

(thousand head

mktd.)

Farrowed by contractors Finished by contractors

1997 2000 2003 2006 1997 2000 2003 2006

1 - 50 10% 5% 15% 3% 14% 9% 13% 12%

50 - 500 8% 8% 13% 14% 9% 13% 12% 14%

500+ 22% 26% 40 41% 22% 33% 39% 40%

Total 40% 39% 68 55% 45% 55% 64% 66%

Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised by Firms That Are Contractors 　公司由提供合同进行（合约）养猪的比例 1997-2006




Farrowed Finished

1997 2000 2003 2006 1997 2000 2003 2006

1 - 50 1% 2% 7% 1% 8% 3% 5% 7%

50 - 500 4% 7% 5% 4% 7% 10% 11% 14%

500+ 11% 13% 17% 15% 16% 21% 25% 25%

Total 17% 22% 23% 20% 30% 34% 41% 46%

Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised under Contract, 养猪户依照合同来养猪的比例　 1997-2006



What Do You See as the Greatest Challenges

to the U.S. Pork Industry over the Next 5 Years? 未来五年最大挑战



Rank: 1 = extremely serious 6 = not serious

Firm Size (1,000 hd. mktd.)

1-50 50-500 500+ All

Disease & health management 　疾病 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1

Compliance issues 　法规 2.7 2.0 2.0 2.2

Maintaining desired productivity 　生产力 2.4 2.6 2.0 2.3

Animal care & well-being, animal activism 　动物福利 2.8 2.0 2.5 2.4

Input purchasing 　成本 2.9 2.9 1.9 2.6

Alternative feeds: profitability & environ. impact 3.0 2.5 2.8 2.8

Establishing consumer trust & confidence 2.7 3.0 2.7 2.8

Finding, training, retaining employees 4.0 2.1 2.4 2.8

Facilities management & maintenance 3.0 3.4 3.0 3.1

Health effect of prod. on employees & neighbors 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.7

Finding higher value pork alternatives, niche mkts. 3.8 3.8 4.1 3.9

Reorganizing farm business 3.9 5.1 4.1 4.4

Unprecedented Times 　前所未有的境遇

• $120 / barrel oil• At least 4.1 billion bushels of 08/09 corn

crop used for ethanol. (33% of projected production)

• Corn carryout of 0 – 5%. (Very low, maybe negative without any weather issues).

• What happens if there is even a modest drought?

Greenwood, 2008

• At least 7% more market hogs in 2008 　功过于求• $5.50 + corn/bu 　玉米价格• $340 + soybean meal/ton 　豆饼价格• $280 / ton feed cost (finishing ration) 　饲料成本• Abundant finishing spaces open / available 　育肥栏过剩• US Breeding herd has been growing a very modest 1-

2% annually. 繁殖猪群增长• Canada paying producers $225 to eliminate sows from

production / food chain. 加拿大淘汰母猪补助计划

Greenwood, 2008

Unprecedented Times 　前所未有的境遇

Signature Farms 　联合公司养猪生产部

1. Feed costs increased dramatically

2. Sale weights were heavy – feed efficiencies biased upwards as a result

3. Questions/issuesa. What is the impact of altering feed

composition on profitability?

b. What is optimal/most profitable sale weight?- How is that weight achieved?

STRATAPLAN™

Putting the STRATAPLAN

Model to Work 　联合养猪生产模式

• Impact of reducing diet cost – removing fat, removing Paylean, adding DDGS– Reduced both diet costs & pig performance– + $4.42/pig

• Optimal/most profitable sale weight – ingredient costs at $6/bu corn– 258-270 lbs (live)– Net effect of achieving weight: + additional $2-3/pig

• Achieved through a combination of selling ahead, reducing total days in barn

STRATAPLAN™

Financial Impact 　对回报的影响

• Feed composition/costs: + $4.42 / pig– Annualized: $1,800,000

• Selling at most profitable wt: + $2 to 3 / pig– Annualized: $800,000 to $1,200,000

• Grand total: + $6.42 to 7.42 / pig– Annualized for Signature Farms:

+ $2,600,000 to $3,000,000

STRATAPLAN™

Livestock Industry In Crisis 　养殖业的严峻挑战

U.S. Estimated Cost of Production Per Head

美国每头猪饲养成本估计

• 2008 Total costs: $165 to $170

• 2006 Total costs were $110

• 2008 Feed cost per head = $105

• 2006 Feed cost per head = $52

Greenwood, 2008

Global View of Costs 　世界养猪成本

• Spain costs per head were at Euros converts to $217 for a 235# pig 西班牙养猪成本

• Breakeven is $.92 live 　平本价每磅 $0.92• All of Europe is struggling 　整个欧洲面临困境• Corn in Spain was $8.67 bushel 　西班牙玉米价格

$0.34/kg• Soybean meal was $500 a ton 　豆粕价格每吨

$500

• U.S. is the most competitive 美国最具竞争力。Greenwood, 2008

Conclusion 　结论

• Risk Management will be more critical in the future. 　风险管理更加关键

• Hog Prices as all protein prices will go up – food inflation will occur. 　猪肉价格持续增长，食品通胀将发生

• This will speed up more integration of the industry. 　行业将进一步整合。

Greenwood, 2008

Thank You.

Documents

Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 －－变革和挑战

Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展－－变革和挑战