CRed carbon reduction 1 Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University

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CRedcarbon reduction

Hard Choices Ahead

Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia

Global Warming: Resource ScarcityA Stern Warning

15th March 2007

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvCRed

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Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

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CRedcarbon reduction

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000T

emp

erat

ure

Ris

e (o C

)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.51860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

actual

actual

actual

predicted

predicted

predictedIs Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity

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19792003

Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region– Nasa satellite

imagery

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

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(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo!

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"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (currently

35% )

available now, but UK gas will run out within current decade

~ 2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 30% (France 80%) - (currently 20% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

potential contribution to

Electricity Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Wholesale Electricity Prices since NETA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

p/k

Wh

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 2035

Inst

all

ed C

ap

aci

ty (

MW

)

New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2017.

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

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Photovoltaic 50% available, but much research neededto bring down costs significantly

10+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 300 sq km

But energy needed to make PV takes up to 8 years to pay back in UK.

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10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% + available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generated just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

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10+ p

Energy Crops 100% + available, but research needed insome areas

2.5 - 4

Wave/TidalStream

100% + techology limited - extensivedevelopment unlikely before 2020

4 - 8p

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


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Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

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Actual Nuclear

Projected Nuclear

Actual Coal with FGD

Opted Out Coal

Renewables

New Nuclear?

New Coal ???

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

MW

• Opted Out Coal: Stations can only run for 20 000 hours more and must close by 2015• New Nuclear assumes completing 1 new nuclear station each year beyond 2016• New Coal assumes completing 1 new coal station each year beyond 2016

Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security

There is a looming capacity shortfall

Even with a full deployment of

renewables.

A 10-15% reduction in demand per

house will see a rise of 7% in total demand

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

• unless we can develop carbon sequestration and apply it to ALL our COAL fired power stations within 10 years - unlikely.

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power

• Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?

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Our Choices: They are difficult

If our answer is YES

By 2020

• we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS

• imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, AlgeriaAre we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>

If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming by using coal? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? –

Aylsham Colliery, North Walsham Pit?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route

and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

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Historic and Future Demand for Electricity

Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ele

ctri

city

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n (

TW

h)

Business as usual

Energy Efficient Future ?

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

The Gas Scenario

Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas.

Replacements for ageing plant

Additions to deal with demand changes

Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010

25% renewables by 2025

Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010

But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002)

Business as Usual

257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002)

Electricity Options for the Future

Gas Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

bill

ion

cu

bic

met

res Actual

Business as Usual

Energy Efficiency

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Energy Efficiency Scenario

Other Options

Some New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO2 levels are to fall significantly and excessive

gas demand is to be avoided

Business as Usual Scenario

New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels


0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MT

on

ne

s C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mto

nn

es C

O2

ActualGasNuclearCoal40:20:40 Mix

25% Renewables by 2025

• 20000 MW Wind

• 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

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5 hot air balloons per person per year.

In the developing world, the average is under 1 balloon per person

Is this Fair?

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.

Using it 5 times a week will cost over £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances 40+ kWh a year - 4000 balloons.

• A Mobile Phone charger: up to 20 kWh per year

~ 1000 balloons each year. 10 kg CO2

• Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

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Involve the local Community

• The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine.

• On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity.

• Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward.

• Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015.

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The ZICER Building - Description

• Four storeys high and a basement• Total floor area of 2860 sq.m• Two construction types

Main part of the building

• High in thermal mass • Air tight• High insulation standards • Triple glazing with low emissivity

Won the Low Energy Building of the Year Award 2005

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The ground floor open plan office

The first floor open plan office

The first floor cellular offices

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• Top floor is an exhibition area – also to promote PV

• Windows are semi transparent

• Mono-crystalline PV on roof ~ 27 kW in 10 arrays

• Poly- crystalline on façade ~ 6/7 kW in 3 arrays

ZICER Building

Photo shows only part of top

Floor

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Arrangement of Cells on Facade

Individual cells are connected horizontally

As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive

If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

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Use of PV generated energy

Sometimes electricity is exportedInverters are only 91% efficient

Most use is for computers

DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficientNeed an integrated approach

Peak output is 34 kW

26Air enters the internal

occupied space

Return stale air is extracted from each floor

Incoming air into

the AHU

Regenerative heat exchanger

FilterHeater

The air passes through hollow

cores in the ceiling slabs

The return air passes through the heat

exchanger

Out of the building

Operation of the Main Building• Mechanically ventilated that utilizes hollow core ceiling slabs as supply air ducts to the space

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Performance of ZICER Building

• Initially performance was poor• Performance improved with new Management Strategy

20052004

EFry

ZICER

New Management

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The Energy Signature from the Old and the New Heating Strategies

0

200

400

600

800

1000

-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Mean external temperature over a 24 hour period (degrees C)

Hea

tin

g a

nd

ho

t-w

ate

r

con

sum

pti

on

(k

Wh

/24

ho

ur

per

iod

)

New Heating Strategy Original Heating Strategy

350

The space heating consumption has reduced by 57%

Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements

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EngineGenerator

36% Electricity

50% Heat

GAS

Engine heat Exchanger

Exhaust Heat

Exchanger

11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses

86%

efficient

Localised generation makes use of waste heat.

Reduces conversion losses significantly

Conversion efficiency improvements – Building Scale CHP

61% Flue Losses

36%

efficient

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Conversion efficiency improvements

1997/98 electricity gas oil Total

MWh 19895 35148 33

Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277

Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699

Electricity Heat

1999/2000

Total site

CHP generatio

n

export

import boilers CHP oil total

MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission factor

kg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277

CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422

Before installation

After installation

This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide

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Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA

Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectivelyMore electricity could be generated in summer

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Condenser

Evaporator

Throttle Valve

Heat rejected

Heat extracted for cooling

High TemperatureHigh Pressure

Low TemperatureLow Pressure

Heat from external source

Absorber

Desorber

Heat Exchanger

W ~ 0

Normal Chilling

Compressor

Adsorption Chilling

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A 1 MW Adsorption chiller

1 MW 吸附冷却器

• Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP

• Will provide most of chilling requirements in summer

• Will reduce electricity demand in summer

• Will increase electricity generated locally

• Save 500 – 700 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually

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Conclusions• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of

energy and small changes to behaviour. It is as much about the individual’s response to use of

energy as any technical measures the Government may take.

• Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years.

• Otherwise Nuclear???• Sensible integrated design of buildings, incorporating innovative

use of renewable energy, adaptive management systems and addressing functional energy uses are also important.

Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge?

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

• Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

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• This presentation will be posted on the WEB tomorrow at:

• www.cred-uk.org

• From main page follow Academic Links

[email protected]

Keith Tovey (杜伟贤 )

http://www.cred-uk.org/

mailto:[email protected]

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CRedcarbon reductionAnimation Courtesy of Rob Hannington

Documents

CRed carbon reduction 1 Hard Choices Ahead Energy Science Director: HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation School of Environmental Sciences, University