CRed carbon reduction 1 Norfolk and Norwich Group Transport and Biofuels A route to a low carbon future?? February 27th 2008 N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD,

CRedcarbon reduction

1

Norfolk and Norwich Group

Transport and Biofuels A route to a low carbon future??

February 27th 2008

N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук

Energy Science Director CRed Project

HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

5th October 2007

1



2

• Climate Change Issues• Historic Trends in Transport• Technical Issues

• Fuel Efficiency• New Fuels

• The Social Dimension• Driver Behaviour

• Conclusions

Transport Issues and Biofuels



33

Concentration of C02 in Atmosphere

300

310

320

330

340

350

360

370

380

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

(ppm

)

Changes in Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

3


44Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation

Source: Tim

Osborne, C

RU

Change in precipitation 1961-2001Increasing Occurrence of DroughtIncreasing Occurrence of Flood

4

CRedcarbon reduction 5

(Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London)

Norwich

Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise

Norwich City would be playing water polo! 5


6

Last Ice Age

Humans are ‘forcing’ the system in a new way. CO2 increases are mainly due to fossil fuel burning. CO2 has not been this high in more than half a million years.

Last Interglacial

Ice ages are not random. They are 'forced' (by earth’s orbital clock…. changes in the sunlight received).

350

300

250

200

Car

bon

Dio

xid

e

(p

pm

v)

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

Thousands of Years Before Present

[Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4]

1800

today

6

Long Term Carbon Dioxide Record

6


7Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

actual

predicted

Is Global Warming man made?

Prediction: Anthropogenic only

Not a good match between 1920 and 1970

Predictions include:

• Greenhouse Gas emissions

• Sulphates and ozone

• Solar and volcanic activity7

7


8


Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural only

good match until 1960




• Solar and volcanic activity

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atur

e R

ise

(o C)

actual

predicted

88


9

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Tem

per

atu

re R

ise

(o C)

actualpredicted

Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic

Generally a good match




• Solar and volcanic activity


99


19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

10

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• الجليد الصيفالقطب في

تغطية الشماليالقطبيه المنطقة

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

في ٪ 20• سنوات 24تخفيض

كاب القطبيه الجليديه على 2003 - 1979 اثار

10


Carbon Emissions associated with transport

11

Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Transport

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Mto

nnes

LPG Road Petrol RoadDiesel Road RailAir

Total UK emissions are about 550 Mtonnes per annum




The Problem

12

• Cars emit between 160 and 600g CO2 per mile

• A small car emits equivalent of 1 party balloon of CO2 every 60m

• A small car driven 9000 miles a year will emit around 2.25 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

• A house will typically cause emission of 4 – 10 tonnes of CO2.

• A tumble dryer used 5 times a week will emit around 0.5 tonnes a year

• A flight to Sydney, Australia will cause emission of 3.7 tonnes directly.

Alternative approaches are needed:? Less travelling by wasteful means

? New fuels


Historic Trends: Personal Mobility

13

• Increase in personal mobility by ~400% in 50 years• Mostly by car journeys• Decline in bus travel (but trend now reversed )• Nearly 50% increase in rail travel since privatisation

– represents a saving of 1.5 - 2 millions tonnes of CO2 per annum compared to road.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1952

1956

1960

1964

1968

1972

1976

1980

1984

1988

1992

1995

1999

2003

bil

lion

pas

sen

ger

kil

omet

res

airrailothercars and vansbuses and coaches

If this travel is replacing road travel!!

Will investment in public transport necessarily reduce car journeys?

Privatisation


Private Motoring

14

• Components of Energy Demand in personal transport.

• Desire for mobility exceeded fuel efficiency improvements until 1990.

• Since 2000 energy consumption approximately in balance.

• Need to reduce further increases in mobility if CO2 is to be reduced significantly.


Historic Trends: Freight

15

• Distance each tonne has travelled has increased by:– 223% since 1960– 20% since 1990

• Is this increase in movement of freight conducive to optimum economic growth, energy security, and carbon reduction?


Carbon and Energy Efficiency Trends in Cars

voluntary emission targets will not be reduced to 140 g/km by 2008/09


Data from Transport Statistics 2005. Table 2005.

Trends in Car Engine Size

Car engine sizes are getting larger.

This increase has caused the emission of an extra

2.9 Mtonnes extra of CO2. per annum.

17


Percentage of models available compared to social desire.

-ve means less models on market than people intending to buy.

Size of Car Engines in Market 2006

0200400600800

1000120014001600

<1000 1000 -1300

1300 -1600

1600 -2000

2000 -2500

2500 -3000

> 3000

Engine Size (ccs)

Nu

mb

er o

f M

odel

s

Size of Choice according to survey of prospective buyers

Data: Vehicle Emission DatabaseDepartment of Transport Report: Assessing the Impact of Graduated Vehicle Excise Duty”

<1000 1000 - 1300

1003 - 1600

1600 - 2000

2000 - 2500

2500 - 3000

>3000


Fuel Consumption and Driver Behaviour

• Car: 5 door Toyota Yaris

• Real performance is best at ~ 50 mph. Saves up to 15% in fuel consumption cf 70 mph.

• Driver behaviour at low to moderate speeds can affect consumption by up to 10%%

01020304050607080

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70Average Speed (mph)

(m

pg)

Driver 1

Driver 2


New Vehicles: A Hybrid Vehicle

20


Depending on the pathway, biofuels can have an impact in reducing CO2 from transport.

However, other studies give differing results and clarity and robustness of methodolgy is needed – including “Real Road Tests”

Biofuel Options• Biogas• Bioethanol (5% or 85%)• Biodiesel (5% to 100%)• Vegetable oil

• Benefit > Reduced CO2 and other emissions?

Technical Issues: New Fuels


Alternative Fuels: Bioethanol• Bioethanol – a substitute for petrol can be blended at ~ 5% blend

with petrol with no modification to engine: E5. • Standard for petrol allows up to 5% blend• With modified engines can be used at 85% blend: E85 (or 90% in

Brazil). Infrastructure of outlets is not developed in Europe and “Flexi-Fuel Vehicles” must be used.

• Can run on any mix from 100% petrol to e85.• Modifications: Hardened Valve seats and intelligent adjustment of

timing depending on fuel mix in car

Ford Focus Flexi-fuelSAAB Flexi-fuel


Launch of BioEthanol in UK: Norwich 15th March 2006

Planning is needed both for vehicles and infrastructure



Alternative Fuels: Biodiesel• Biodiesel– a substitute for fossil diesel can be blended at ~ 5% blend

with normal diesel B5. • Standard for diesel allows up to 5% blend• Modern diesels can run on up to 100% blend with no modification, but

warranty by manufacturers is often made invalid with any blend > 5%.• Often used at higher blend in fleet situations – e.g. HGVs, Anglian

Buses. • 3 Anglian buses were using B20 – i.e. 20% blend – new supply will

allow continuation from next month.• No degradation in performance noted despite lower energy content.



Alternative Fuels: Biogas• Biogas vehicles could use same

infrastructure as CNG vehicles.

• Total Biogas potential in UK ~ 155.4 million tonnes of suitable biodegradable municipal waste.

• Sufficient for equivalent of ~ 2.5 billion litres or ~5.1% of Road Transport requirements

• Gas powered vehicles in Malmo



• Fuel Cell powered bus: hydrogen

Alternative Fuels: Hydrogen



Bioethanol

27

• Can be blended up to 5% with petrol• Can be used directly in specially designed engines


• Sugar Beet• Wheat• Woody Wastes• (and ultimately) Municipal Wastes

Bioethanol can be obtained from:

Bioethanol can be produced by:

• Acid hydrolysis• Enzymatic hydrolysis• Gasification and fermentation



Bioethanol from Sugar Beet or Sugar Cane

Bioethanol from Wheat

Bioethanol Production

Wheat

Sugar Beet or Sugar Cane

Malting processes

Animal Feeds

Waste Products Electricity

BioethanolFermentation

Yeast

Residue for Energy???

Crushing to dissolve sugars

Distillation Bioethanol

Yeast

Fermentation



Bioethanol from Enzymatic Hydrolysis and Fermentation

Bioethanol from Acid Hydrolysis and Fermentation

ElectricityWaste Products

Straw/ Wood

BioethanolEnzymatic Hydrolysis

Enzymes

Enzymatic Fermentation

Enzymes

Bioethanol Production

ElectricityWaste Products

BioethanolEnzymatic Fermentation

Enzymes

Straw/ Wood

Chemical Byproducts

Acids

AcidHydrolysis

In 2020



Biodiesel production

biodiesel

Vegetable Oil Methanol

Catalyst

crushing

Used Vegetable

Oil

filter

Remove free fatty

acids

glycerol



Does Bioethanol reduce CO2?


CO2 emissions

transport

milling

Hydrolysis / fermentation and process

harvesting

sowing

cultivation

fertilisers

Bioethanol

Fossil Fuels Electricity

fertilisers

Fossil Fuels

Biomass Cogeneration

CO2 +ve CO2 ve Grid

Electricity

Process heat

-5 to + 50% saving

50 – 110% saving

31


Technical Issues: New Fuels

32

• Biofuels: one part of the solution in near term with Fuel Cells in longer Term??

Overall CO2 emissions for different fuels/production methods/power trains.

Based on CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR results as adapted by Andy Taylor




The Problem

33

• New Fuels such as biofuels are a possible solution, but only if exploited sustainably.• What area of land is needed to supply fuel for road transport needs?• In 2006 we needed 49.035 billion litres of road transport fuel• If provided solely by biofuels that would require and area of 200 000 – 240 000 sq km.

• The area of the UK is 225 000 sq km

• Biofuels could perhaps provide up to 5 - 10% but no more. Some coming from used cooking oil



UK Wheat Production and Exports

34

Average surplus over 23 years = 1.96 million tonnesAverage surplus over last 4 years = 1.65 million tonnesAverage yield per hectare = 7.4 tonnes



Set Aside Land in UK

35

Set aside land average over last 10 years 5372 sq kmSet aside land in 2006 - 4380 sq km



Bioethanol: What is maximum sustainable production?

36

Set Aside land (2006) = 4380 sq km = 438000 hectares

Average (1997 – 2006) wheat yield = 7.8 tonnes per hectare Each tonne So yield is 2621 litres per hectare

Average yield of sugar beet = 55.2 tonnes per hectareSo yield is 5962 litres per hectare.

Assume 50% of each crop on rotation basisTotal production each year would be 219000 * (2621 + 5962) = 1.880 billion litres

or 7.65% of current petrol demandBut bioethanol has a lower energy contentSo true saving in litre = 1.257 billion litresor 5.11% by energy content



Biodiesel: What is maximum sustainable production?

37

Set Aside land (2006) = 4380 sq km = 438000 hectares

Average (1997 – 2006) oil seed rape yield = 3.2 tonnes per but only around 38.5% is oil

So yield is 1092 litres per hectare

Total potential production on set aside land = 0.618 billion litres

Total demand for diesel = 24.24 billion litresSaving = 2.55% by volume or 2.43% by energy content

24.23555



Biofuels: What is maximum sustainable production?

38

Assume 50% of set aside is used for biodiesel and 50% for bioethanol as a mixture of wheat and sugar beet. Further it is as assumed that all exported wheat is converted into bioethanol.

Crop Yield (billion litres)

Saving in fossil fuel litres *

CO2 savings @ 50% **

M tonnes

CO2 savings @ 100% **

M tonnes

Wheat 0.287 0.192 0.213 0.426

Sugar Beet 0.653 0.437 0.485 0.969

Oil Seed Rape 0.309 0.274 0.367 0.735

Exported Wheat

0.554 0.371 0.412 0.823

Totals 1.803 1.273 1.476 2.953

* Makes allowance for different energy content of fuel

* Assumes 50% or 100% saving in CO2 depending on process

Only achieves 3.69% saving in raw volume cf. 5% RTFO



39

Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry 2004

• Despite reduced calorific value of biodiesel, fuel consumption remained the same

First trials ever of fuel economy ‘on the road’ using biodiesel8 Volvo FH12 Trucks: 5%, 20%, 35%, 50% biodiesel blends



40

• Driver behaviour can affect performance• Driver 2 uses 13.8% more fuel than driver 1

Biodiesel Trials – Banham PoultryDriver behaviour



41

• Trials demonstrated other benefits compounding to 60% saving

– Using 50% uvo biodiesel (~40% saving)

– Advanced driver training (~15% saving): cumulative ~49%

– Better route/load planning (~10% saving): cumulative ~54%

– More fuel-efficient trucks (~10% saving): cumulative ~59%

Total CO2 saving ~59%

• However

– Widespread availability of biodiesel at this concentration and new trucks will take time

• Other actions could be taken in shorter time scale

– Advanced driver training (~15% saving):

– Better route/load planning (~10% saving):

Total CO2 saving ~24%

Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry



42

• In UK it is 5% substitution of biofuels by volume. Should it be 5% by energy?

• Will the buy out money necessarily end up promoting UK projects as with Renewable Obligation?

• Significant quantities of wheat are exported which could be used for bioethanol.

• Land Area required for 5% by volume– ~10000 – 12000 sq km

– or 4-5% of total land area of UK.

area of Norfolk, Suffolk, and part of Cambridgeshire combined

• What happens if RTFO is increased further? Is land area requirement sustainable?

Implications of Road Transport Fuel Obligation for 2010



Personal Mobility: Does Public Transport reduce car travel?

43

UK

D

More use of car > more total distance travelled.

Greater distance by train > greater use of car.

Compare UK with Germany

switch UK car journeys to public transport at German levels. saving by train 1.01 M tonnes saving by bus 0.74 M tonnesReducing mobility desire 9.22 M tonnesSuggests overriding issue is increased desire for mobility rather

than significant switching of mode of transport.

D

UK

D

UK



Social Issues: Lift SharingOur congested roads are full of empty seats

44

The UK leader in lift sharing, Liftshare.comis based in Norfolk; Aim: CO2, Car Occupancy 2

52 million km shared each year.

Car travel (2006 statistics):• 679 billion passenger kilometres• 398 billion vehicle kilometres

Average occupancy 1.71.Raising this to an average of 2 would save

9.9 Mtonnes CO2.

Lift sharing/car pooling is very cost effective, can help combat social exclusion, and enhance the effectiveness of public transport.

Increasing average car occupancy is a very cheap way of saving CO2 and reducing car use.



Social Issues: First car share club in East Anglia

EDP, June 2, 2006

However, some research of Cambridge scheme by Prof. Crawford Brown suggests that much of use is additional use not replacement use.

45



Conclusions

46

• Are Biofuels an answer? To a limited extent BUT • Government needs clearer statements on its commitments:

e.g.RTFO. • Where will buy out money go?• Will it promote industry in UK?• Land requirements in post 2010 ideas from increased RTFO?

• Issues of fuel efficiency need addressing more effectively• Reverse trend towards large engine cars• Revisit the banding system and related taxation

• Social Dimension must not be overlooked.– Better education/awareness - driver behaviour.– Address issue of continual increases in desire for

mobility.

Could provide more rapid and cheaper method to

reduce CO2?



WEBSITE www.cred-uk.org

This presentation will be available from tomorrow:> Follow the Academic Resources Link

Conclusions

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."

Documents

CRed carbon reduction 1 Norfolk and Norwich Group Transport and Biofuels A route to a low carbon future?? February 27th 2008 N.K. Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A, PhD,