1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Inside Science Norwich: September 30 th 2010 Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us Keith Tovey (

1

Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal

Inside ScienceNorwich: September 30th 2010

Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us

Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvSchool of Environmental Sciences/ Norwich Business School:

University of East Anglia

• Global Overview – Climate Change Issues

• The UK situation: The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction

• Awareness Raising: Reducing demand and involving the community

• The UK’s current performance on the road to a Low Carbon Future.


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Increasing Occurrence of Drought

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Increasing Occurrence of Flood

• Increasing Incidence of Weather Related Disasters

• September 27 2010: News Flash

• Weather-related natural catastrophes are at an “exceptionally high” level this year, causing more than $65 billion of losses.

• There have been 725 weather-related catastrophes, the second-highest figure recorded for the first nine months of the year since 1980.

• About 21,000 people died in the disasters and insured losses totalled $18 billion.

Bloomberg Press5


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19792003

Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003

• Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region

• NASA satellite imagery

• في الجليد الصيفالشمالي القطب

المنطقة تغطيةالقطبيه

• الصور ناساالفضاءيه

Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

•20% reduction in 24 years

سنوات24تخفيض في ٪ 20•

المناختغير - 1979 اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب

2003

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http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

Is Global Warming natural or man-made?

Natural causes• Earth’s Orbit• Sunspot Activity• Volcanic Eruptions • Etc.

Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960

Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period.

BUT including both man- made and natural gives good agreement

Current Energy Requirement

Area Total Demand Population Per Capita

World 12.0 TW 6000 M 2.0 kW

USA 3.0 TW 300 M 10.0 kW

Europe 2.0 TW 350 M 5.7 kW

UK 0.3 TW 60 M 5.0 kW

Practically Achievable: Renewable Energy:-

• 0.01 – 0.1TW - Tidal

• 0.1 – 1.0 TW - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes

• 1 -10TW - Hydro; Wind; Waves

• 10 -100TW – Solar

The Future

Population 9 – 10 billion?

1 TeraWatt (TW) = 1 billion kW

Minimum ~20TW

Maximum ~100TW

Likely Range

30 – 40TW

Life Span of Fossil Fuels

Decades: Oil, Gas 235U Tar Sands, Oil Shales

Centuries: Coal, Geothermal, D-T Fusion 238U, 232Th

Millenia: D – D Fusion

Conservation is vital for a Sustainable Renewable Future in the Long Term


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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

bilio

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actual discoveries

projected discoveries

demand

Consumption of Oil is outstripping new finds

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There is a looming Gas Shortage in the UK

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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

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Actual UK production

Actual UK demand

Projected production

Projected demand

Import Gap

On 13th Jan 2010: UK Production was only 41%: 14% from storage and 44% imports

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11Per capita Carbon Emissions

UK

How does UK compare with other countries?

Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?

What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?

France

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Carbon Dioxide Emissions including embedded carbon

0

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400

600

800

1000

1200

coal oil gas gasCCGT

Biomass PV tidal/wave

Hydro Wind Nuclear

gms-

CO

2 / k

Wh

Highest LowestCCS

some data from Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology: Postnote 268, remainder from NK Tovey research

Carbon Factors for different modes of electricity generation

Carbon Dioxide Emissions including embedded carbon

0

20

40

60

80

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Biomass PV tidal/ wave Hydro Wind Nucleargm

s-CO2

/ kW

h

Highest

Lowest

CCS

In UK, Coal ~ 900 gms/kWh, oil ~ 800+ gms/kWh CCGT ~ 400 gms/kWhNuclear ~ 10 gms/kWh: Overall ~ 520 – 530 gms/kWh

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Carbon Emissions and Electricity

UKFrance

13

r

Electricity Generation in selected Countries

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• The UK situation - The Twin Challenges of Energy Security and Carbon Reduction




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2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

40%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

UK becomes net importer of

gas in 2004

Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed

Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020

nuclear fission (long term)

0 - 20% (France 80%) - (currently 15% and falling)

new inherently safe designs - some practical development needed

2.5 - 3.5p

nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest

"Clean Coal"

Traditional Coal ~40%- coal could

supply 40 - 50% by 2020

Available now: Not viable without Carbon Capture & Sequestration

2.5 - 3.5p - but will EU - ETS carbon trading will affect

this

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potential contribution to Supply in 2020

costs in 2020

Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018.

Gas CCGT0 - 80% (curently

40+%)Available now (but is

now running out)

~2p + but recent trends put figure

much higher

0

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New Build ?

ProjectedActual

Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be

available at scale required until mid 2020s17

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

Carbon Capture and Sequestration

• Could provide a solution for the medium / long term – i.e. 15+ years time

• Demonstration scheme in Germany 30 MW since 2008,

• China also has an operating 30 MW scheme

• UK Government hopes to have four 300 MW demonstration schemes operating by 2015/16

But

• UK has 59000MW of fossil fuel power stations – i.e. 600 times the demonstration schemes

• Will increase fossil fuel burn by 20 -40% - i.e. for every four power stations an extra is needed to support the CCS plant

• Will do little to help situation over next decade.

Various methods potentially available

pre combustion - removing nitrogen in air before combustion

post combustion – separating CO2 from other exhaust gases. 18

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On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercial exploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in2020

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Onshore Wind

• 10 first generation turbines at Blood Hill have a total capacity of 2250 kW

• The single neighbouring turbine at Somerton – 1500 kW but generates much more electricity than the 10 combined.

• Swaffham 1 provides ON AVERAGE sufficient power for 900 homes.

• Latest generation are 3000 kW each

2020

On Shore Wind ~25% available now for commercialexploitation

~ 2p

Resource Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers

Cost in 2020

Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on

average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and

Ipswich

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 – Offshore Wind

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~ 2p

Hydro 5% technically mature, but limitedpotential

2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,

Norfolk.

Rated capacity 5.5 kW

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Hydro

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Photovoltaic 10%? available, but much research needed to bring down costs significantly

20+ p


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up

to 10 years to pay back in UK.

Solar PhotoVoltaic ElectrictyResource Potential contribution to electricity supply in

2020 and drivers/barriersCost in

2020


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020

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Mono - crystalline

~ 80 – 100

kWh / sqm / annum

Thin film

~ 60 – 70

kWh / sqm / annum

Poly - crystalline

~ 60 – 80 kWh / sqm / annum

Typical test bed efficiencies 15 – 16% for mono-crystalline - theoretically up to 30%, but practical efficiencies after inversion in real situations ~ 10 – 12%

Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty

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• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 9.5%.• Average efficiency over year

is 7.5%

Mono-crystalline Cell Efficiency Poly-crystalline Cell Efficiency

• Peak Cell efficiency is ~ 14% and close to standard test bed efficiency.

• Most projections of performance use this efficiency

• Average efficiency over year is 11.1%

Inverter Efficiencies reduce overall system efficiencies to 10.1% and 6.73% respectively

Efficiency of Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty

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Overall Performance of Photo Voltaic Arrays in ZICER

Inverters are only 91% efficient

Most use is for computers

DC power packs are inefficient typically less than 60% efficient

An integrated approach is needed to ensure best performance 25

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Arrangement of Cells on Facade

Individual cells are connected horizontally

As shadow covers one column all cells are inactive

If individual cells are connected vertically, only those cells actually in shadow are affected.

Cells active

Cells inactive even though not covered by shadow

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Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.

Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.

The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.

But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.

Solar PhotoVoltaic Electricty

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Solar Energy Centralised Solar Power

PS10 Solar Tower Seville, Spain 11 MW Capacity28

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~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


10+ p

Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas

50% ????????

available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4

Biofuels/Biomass

But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs.

Transport Fuels:

• Biodiesel?

• Bioethanol?

• Compressed gas from methane from waste.

Energy Crops 50% ????????

available, but research needed in some areas

2.5 - 4


~ 2p


2.5 - 3p


Cost in2020


10+ p

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Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately

techology limited - major development unlikely before 2020 ~ 3–4%

4 - 8p

Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation

There are numerous designs, but expertise in wave power is spread very thinly

Pelamis

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Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

Wave Energy Options for Electricity Generation

Oyster

Oyster under test at Bilia Croo

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Tidal Resource

kW/m2

<0.01

0.01

2.90

Resource is measured in terms of kW/m2 of vertical column of water

Tidal Energy – The Resource

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Wave/Tidal Stream

100% + ultimately


4 - 8p

Tidal Stream Options for Electricity Generation

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Tidal Power – Barrage de la Rance, St Malo

Vortices created during generation at La Rance

The Sluice Gates

One of 24 turbines

Tidal Barrages 10 - 20% technology available but unlikelywithout Government intervention

notcosted

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Cardiff

Newport

Bristol

Weston

Minehead

Beachley Barrage

Shoots Barrage

Cardiff – Weston Barrage

Cardiff - Hinkley Barrage

Minehead – Aberthaw Barrage

Tidal Power – Some Proposed Schemes for the Severn

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Churchill Barrier each could provide Output 78 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney.

Controversy in bringing cables southSave 40000 tonnes of CO2

Tidal Barrage Options for Electricity Generation

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Geothermal unlikely for electricity generationbefore 2050 if then

Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Geothermal

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Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.

Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years.

If our answer is NO

Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?

Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks?

If our answer is NO

Do we want to return to using coal? •then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly

•unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY

If our answer to coal is NO

Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

Our Choices: They are difficult

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If our answer is YES

By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS

for around 70% of our heating and electricity

imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria

Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:

We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.

Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?

Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?

Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

Our Choices: They are difficult

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nuclear new nuclear coal

new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables

Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation

We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.

We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.! 40

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Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project

Annual Solar Gain 825 kWh

Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004

Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs

Overall Solar Energy Gain

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kWh

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2009 2010

Technical Solutions: Solar Thermal Energy

0.0

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kWh/

day

BSD1 BS01BS02 BS12BS14 BS16BS17 BS26BS27 BS29BS52

Up to 15 installations were monitored at 5 miute intervals for periods up to 15 months

Mean Monthly Solar gain for 11 systems

Some 2 panel systems captured twice the energy in summer months as other 2 panel systems.

3 panel systems

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House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles with Solar Panels

- less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

It is all very well for South East, but what about the North?

House on Westray, Orkney exploiting passive solar energy from end of February

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Effective Low Carbon Strategies requires Involving the local Community

Even better things are happening on the Island of Westray.

The Parish Kirk, and Community Centre are heated by heat Pumps partly

powered by Wind Turbines

Waste cooking oil from other islands is processed into biodiesel for farm and

other vehicles.

Ethanol used in process is obtained from fermentation of harvested sea weed 44






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How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?

5 hot air balloons per person per year.

On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.

"Nobody made a greater mistake

than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."

Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)

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Raising Awareness

• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.

• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.

• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)

• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.

• Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)

How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?

1.6 miles

At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai

上海徐汇区高第一小学

• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.

School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya

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No of people in household

Electricity Consumption

1 person2 people3 people4 people5 people6 people

• Social Attitudes have a profound effect on actual electricity consumption

• For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER or COOKING] can vary by as much as 9 times.

Data courtesy of Karla Alcantar

• Significant savings in money can arise from effective awareness raising

• When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 48






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Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity

Raising awareness on energy use will save money

UK average is 4478 kWh per year at a cost of around £530

• Norwich average is 3535 kWh and is 6th best out of 408 Councils

• Uttlesford average is 5884 kWh and is 396th out of 408

• NK Tovey’s average in a four bedroomed detached house is

<2250 kWh per year to 31st March 2010 [50% of National Average]

a reduction of 25% compared to on 18 months ago.

On average

• Norwich – consumers will be paying 79% of National average

• Uttlesford – consumers will be paying 131% of National average50

Average Domestic Consumption of Electricity

kWh % cost Rank kWh % cost Rank

Norwich 3,535 79% 6 Breckland 5,028 112% 312

Cambridge 4,050 90% 80East Cambridgeshire

5,118 114% 326

Peterborough 4,222 94% 116 Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 Babergh 5,252 117% 343Waveney 4,417 99% 181 South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358Broadland 4,618 103% 231 Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360North Hertfordshire

4,645 104% 240South Cambridgeshire

5,498 123% 374

Huntingdon 4,655 104% 243 North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390St Edmundsbury

4,869 109% 280King's Lynn and West Norfolk

5,731 128% 393

Fenland 4,899 109% 287 Uttlesford 5,884 131% 396

Consumption of Electricity in selected Local Authority in East of England • % cost compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities

In Norwich average household emits 1.9 tonnes of CO2

In Uttlesford 3.1tonnes of CO2 51

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MWh % renewables % renewables

Bedford 351170 13.70% UK Average (2008) 4.77%

Norfolk 503265 11.68% Target for 2007 / 08 7.9%

Cambridge 442202 10.15% Target for 2008/ 09 9.1%

Essex 365204 4.54% Target for 2010 10.40%

Suffolk 141103 3.71% Target for 2020 ~30%

Hertfordshire 35860 0.69%

Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables

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% renewables rank ex 408

Breckland 262923 31.85% 12Great Yarmouth 152739 30.00% 16Mid Suffolk 111488 18.32% 25South Norfolk 34062 4.98% 75Broadland 18228 2.95% 117King's Lynn and West Norfolk 26841 2.54% 129Waveney 14130 1.86% 148North Norfolk 8472 1.27% 181St Edmundsbury 7453 1.04% 189Suffolk Coastal 7570 1.02% 191Babergh 462 0.09% 280Forest Heath 0 0.00% 315Ipswich 0 0.00% 315Norwich 0 0.00% 315

Proportion of Electricity Generated by Renewables

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1.33 billion people

0.94 billion people

Raw materials

1.03 billion people

Products: 478 M

tonnes

CO 2 increase in

3 years

Aid

& E

du

cation

The Unbalanced Triangular Trade

Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years

Water issues are equally important.

Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of water

Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher

“If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.”

And Finally

• There are many exciting options for a sustainable low carbon energy system

• We need to address both the short term and long term objectives

• The UK is facing an energy security issue in the next decade

• There needs to be a much more integrated approach to energy supply

• Long term decision making is needed – longer than the life time of a Parliament

• We need to take Energy out of short term Party Politics

Conclusions

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Documents

1 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Inside Science Norwich: September 30 th 2010 Inside Low Carbon Innovation: The Challenges Facing us Keith Tovey (