Crisis or Opportunity? How close to Peak Oil are we?

Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre andEditor of Petroleum Review, Energy Institute, London

Crisis or Opportunity?How close to Peak Oil are we?

Estates in Transition, Dartington Hall 11 June 2007

Who am I?

Chris Skrebowski has spent half his working life in the oil industry and the rest as an oil journalist

Free of corporate or political pressure he brings a healthy scepticism to the problem

Not pessimistic by nature, not anti-Oil

Basic approach to Peak Oil analysis

Don’t guess, assume or hope - let the numbers talk

Observe what companies do, not what they say


So what is ‘Peak Oil’?

• It is the point when further expansion of oil production becomes

impossible because:

• New production flows are fully offset by production declines (depletion)

• You never run out of oil

• You do run out of incremental flows

• The world needs oil products to support growth


Latest BP statistics show Peaks are already happening

• OECD production peaked in 1997 and has now declined by just under 2 million b/d (8.8%)

• Non-Opec, non-FSU production peaked in 2002• North America/Mexico peaked in 1997• North Sea - UK/Norway/Denmark peaked in 2000

now declined by 1.2 million b/d (19.2%)• Around 25 significant producers in decline• About 35% of global production from decliners


Slowing supply flows matter because oil dominates its markets

• 80-95% of all transport is fuelled by oil products• 50-75% of all oil is used for transportation• All petrochemicals are produced from oil• 99% of all lubrication is done with oil products• 95% of all goods in the shops get there using oil• 99% of our food involves oil or gas for fertilisers,

agrochemicals, tilling, cultivation and transport• Oil is the most important source of primary energy on

the planet accounting for 36.4% of all energy


The practical realities

• The world needs oil production flows• Consumers need delivery flows• Reserves are only useful as flows• Peak oil is when flows can’t meet the required

demand• Worry about flows not reserves

• Many talk of reserves and forgets flows


Introducing the Gator

The Oil-a-Gator

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Seven key pieces of evidence suggesting we are close to Peak

• Falling discovery rate, few large discoveries

• Increasing number of countries in sustained depletion

• Companies struggling to hold production

• Non-geologic threats future oil supply

• The current lack of incremental flows

• Few countries with real growth potential

• Sustained high oil prices


The Growing Gap

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Past discovery according to ExxonMobil

The real discovery trend


More countries going into decline

• 25 major and 40 minor producers already in decline • Mexico producing 3.8mn b/d went in 2005• India producing 0.8mn b/d goes in 2007/08• China producing 3.6mn b/d goes in 2007/08• Collectively 9.9mn b/d or 12.3% of production• Iran is struggling -- next to go?• When does Saudi go? As Matt Simmons says

• ‘When Saudi goes so does the world’


The oil companies are already struggling to hold production(24 quoted co.’s account for 24% of global production)

• For the last 12 quarters oil production: • Has drifted down for the 5 Supermajors• Has flatlined for the 10 largest quoted companies• Has flatlined for the 24 largest quoted companies• The quoted companies share of global production

is now declining, notably for the Supermajors• Annual decline rates up to 5%, quarterly 8%• Supply shortfalls deplete existing fields faster• But, there’s always someone doing well


Alaskan North Slope ProductionReserves grow -- Production falls


North Sea production by field

Forties monthly production to date


Non-Geologic threats to new supply

• Resource nationalism - Russia, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador - more to follow?

• Tighter terms and conditions - all with oil

• Civil insurrection - Nigeria, other Africa?

• And - cost inflation, ageing infrastructure, lack of skilled people, refinery constraints

• How likely is improvement in these?


21 month Plateau or Peak flows?(Latest EIA data)


Opec 11 crude oil supplies (EIA)

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A simple observation -- or why peak will be earlier than most people expect

‘Global production falls when loss of output from countries in decline exceeds gains in output from those that are expanding.’

Decline

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World non-Opec Oil Supply Growth(2006 - 2007 - 2008)

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New Opec capacity 2007 & 2008 (IEA)

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The hole in the bucket -- How big and how fast is depletion?

• Around 5%-8% for areas in decline• Net depletion 2-3% or up to 2.6mn b/d/yr• Net now double demand growth• How do we know? Oil companies, BP stats• Is depletion accelerating? – Yes as more

countries start net depletion and it speeds up• Can it be ameliorated? – Yes, slow

production down


The world’s biggest oilfields are old, tired and fading

• Of the 120 largest fields, 50 are in decline, 44 not in decline, 12 unclear and 7 are undeveloped

• Average age of the giants is 42 years• But, the 120 largest fields give 50% of total

production and contain two-thirds of reserves• 70% of production from fields 30+ years old• Few large recent discoveries

• We’re dependent on the oil equivalent of ‘Old men and young boys’


The oil depletion balance sheet at end 2006 and by 2008/9

• In decline 35% but rising to 45% by 2008/9

• In danger 12% but declining to 10% by 2008/9

• Growing 41% but declining to 33% by 2008/9

• Russia 12% and steady at 12% by 2008/9

• The scales appear ‘balanced’ by 2008/9

• So does President Putin decide when decline starts?

• Or does Saudi geology?

• Or can we drive it out to 2010 to 2011?


This is the real new capacity to 2012 (Peak in mid 2011)

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Where are oil prices going?Oil Prices 2000-2010

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Post-peak we are going to need other energy sources – Opportunity

• How fast will supply decline post-peak?

• Possibly around 2-3%/year like the US onshore but initially at just 1-2%

• But,it could be much faster

• Suppliers could anticipate, ration out supplies, delay peak and force adaptation

• Some might use military strength to commandeer supplies


Are there realistic substitutesfor the main oil products?

• Petrochemicals – naphtha, coal derived chemicals, sugar derived, some gas/LPG. (Few alternatives)

• Aircraft fuel – jet kerosene, some Avgas, alcohols as extenders, kerosene from coal. (Few realistic alternatives)

• Road vehicle fuels – Gasoline and Diesel dominant. (Alternatives - Electric. Large Investments/capital write-offs)

• Ships and boats – marine diesel and fuel oil. (No realistic alternatives - Coal? Sails? Nuclear?)

• Lubricants and greases – (very limited alternatives)• Power generation – (little oil now used - 9% globally)• Heating – (increasingly substituted by gas)


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Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of Conventional Oil Production Peaking

A Study for DOE NETL

Delay / Rapid growth.

Roughly 35 MM bpd at year 20.

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Study


My conclusions at very best

• Supply will remain tight and prices high barring a major economic setback

• Oil supply will peak in 2011/12 at around 92-94 million barrels/day

• There will supply shortfalls in winter before Peak• Oil supply in international trade may peak earlier

than the oil production peak• Aided by CERA’s optimism we are still in denial • There are huge challenges and huge opportunities

Chris Skrebowski: Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre andEditor of Petroleum Review, Energy Institute, London

Contact: Chris SkrebowskiEditor, Petroleum [email protected]+ 44 (0)20 7467 7117

Documents

Crisis or Opportunity? How close to Peak Oil are we?