DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODELING

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10 กรกฎาคม 2513

Decision Support Systems

� Systems designed to support managerial decision-making in unstructured problems

� More recently, emphasis has shifted to inputs from outputs

� Mechanism for interaction between user and

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� Mechanism for interaction between user and components

� Usually built to support solution or evaluate opportunities

DSS

� A DSS is a methodology that supports decision-making.

� It is:

� Flexible;

� Adaptive;

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� Interactive;

� GUI-based;

� Iterative; and

� Employs modeling.

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Components of DSS

� Subsystems:

� Data management

�Managed by DBMS

� Model management

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� Model management

�Managed by MBMS

� User interface

� Knowledge Management and organizational

knowledge base

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Data Management Subsystem

� Components:

� Database

� Database management system

� Data directory

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� Data directory

� Query facility

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Database

� Interrelated data extracted from various sources,

stored for use by the organization, and queried

� Internal data, usually from TPS

� External data from government agencies, trade

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� External data from government agencies, trade

associations, market research firms, forecasting

firms

� Private data or guidelines used by decision-makers

Database Management System

� Extracts data

� Manages data and their relationships

� Updates (add, delete, edit, change)

� Retrieves data (accesses it)

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� Retrieves data (accesses it)

� Queries and manipulates data

� Employs data dictionary

Data Directory

� Catalog of all data

� Contains data definitions

� Answers questions about the availability of data

items

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items

� Source

� Meaning

� Allows for additions, removals, and alterations

Model Management Subsystem

� Components:

� Model base

� Model base management system

� Modeling language

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� Modeling language

� Model directory

� Model execution, integration, and command

processor

Models

� Strategic

� Supports top management decisions

� Tactical

� Used primarily by middle management to allocate resources

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resources

� Operational

� Supports daily activities

� Analytical

� Used to perform analysis of data

Model Base Management System

� Functions:

� Model creation

� Model updates

� Model data manipulation

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� Model data manipulation

� Generation of new routines

� Model directory:

� Catalog of models

� Definitions

Model Management Activities

� Model execution

� Controls running of model

� Model command processor

� Receives model instructions from user interface

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� Routes instructions to MBMS or module execution or integration functions

� Model integration

� Combines several models’ operations

User Interface System

Knowledge-based

system

Data management

and DBMS

Model management

and MBMS

User Interface Management System (UIMS)

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Natural Language Processor

Input

Action

Languages

Output

Display

Language

Users Printers, Plotters

PC

Display

View of the User Interface

User Interface Management System

� GUI

� Natural language processor

� Interacts with model management and data

management subsystems

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management subsystems

� Examples

� Speech recognition

� Display panel

� Tactile interfaces

� Gesture interface

Knowledge-Based Management System

� Expert or intelligent agent system component

� Complex problem solving

� Enhances operations of other components

� May consist of several systems

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� May consist of several systems

� Often text-oriented DSS

DSS Hardware

� De facto standard

� Web server with DBMS:

� Operates using browser

� Data stored in variety of databases

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� Data stored in variety of databases

� Can be mainframe, server, workstation, or PC

� Any network type

� Access for mobile devices

DSS Classifications

� Alter

� Extent to which outputs can directly support or

determine the decision

� Data oriented or model oriented

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� Data oriented or model oriented

� Holsapple and Whinston

� Text oriented, database oriented, spreadsheet

oriented, solver oriented, rule oriented, or

compound

� Intelligent

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(ad hoc analysis)

DSS Classifications

� Donovan and Madnick

� Institutional

� Problems of recurring nature

� Ad hoc

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� Problems that are not anticipated or are not repetitive

� Hackathorn and Keen

� Personal support, group support, or organizational support

DSS Classifications

� GSS v. Individual DSS

� Decisions made by entire group or by lone

decision maker

� Custom made v. vendor ready made

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� Custom made v. vendor ready made

� Generic DSS may be modified for use

�Database, models, interface, support are built in

�Addresses repeatable industry problems

�Reduces costs

Web and DSS

� Data collection

� Communications

� Collaborations

� Download capabilities

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� Download capabilities

� Run on Web servers

� Simplifies integration problems

� Increased usability features

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GDSS

� Supports a group of people making a decision

� Variation

� Multi-user, networked

� Same or different location

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� Same or different location

� Same or different time

Benefits of working in group

� Easier to understand problem

� More people accountable for decisions

� Better at catching errors

� Synergistic effects

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� Synergistic effects

� More people committed to implementation

� Reduces sources of resistance to implementation

Traps and difficulties

� Members of a group may have different

�Objectives

� Information

�Competencies

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�Competencies

� A group may have difficulty

�Communicating information between members

�Coordinating implementation of policies

� Interpersonal dynamics affects outcomes

�Groupthink

�Domination by strong personalities

�Fear of expressing opinion

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�Fear of expressing opinion

� At the First International Conference on Decision

Support Systems in 1981, Peter G. W. Keen pointed

out that the fundamental model of DSS—the lonely

decision maker is truly in rare cases.

Evolution

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decision maker is truly in rare cases.

� In real organizations, be they public or private,

Japanese, European, or American, most decisions

are taken only after extensive consultation.

� A DSS is usually designed to be used by a particular

decision-maker. That is, a decision is made basically

from the input provided by one particular person.

� Group DSSs are designed to be used by more than

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� Group DSSs are designed to be used by more than

one decision maker. These systems are useful for

committees, review panels, board meetings, task

forces, and decision making sessions that require the

input of several decision makers.

Definition

� “ A GDSS consists of a set of software, hardware,

and language components and procedures that

support a group of people engaged in a decision-

related meeting.” (Huber, 1982)

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related meeting.” (Huber, 1982)

� DeSanctis and Gullupe define a GDSS as an

interactive, computer-based system that facilitates

solution of unstructured and semistructured

problems by a set of decision-makers working as a

group.

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group.

� This definition is very similar to the definition of DSS.

The only difference is the existence of the group

versus individual decision makers. By this definition,

the components of a GDSS, hardware, software,

people, and procedures, are basically the same as the

components of DSS in general.

� An important point to note is that the group using the

GDSS may not make the ultimate decision.

� It may be creating and/or reviewing alternatives to be

submitted as a short list to the next level in the

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submitted as a short list to the next level in the

organizational hierarchy.

� GDSS can be viewed as subsuming conventional DSS

within it.

� That is, the concepts of model base, database, and

human interface all apply.

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human interface all apply.

� Thus, as group size shrinks to one, a GDSS reduces to

a DSS.

Conversely, in moving from a DSS to GDSS, some new

requirements are introduced:

� The addition of communications capabilities

� Enhancement of the model base to provide voting,

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� Enhancement of the model base to provide voting,

ranking, rating, and so on, for developing consensus.

� Greater system reliability

� Enhance physical facilities

� Increased setup before use of the system

To be more specific, consider the hardware/software

components of a GDSS.

The software components include:

� Database capabilities

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� Database capabilities

� Modeling capabilities

� Dialog management with multiple-user access

� Specialized application program to facilitate group

access

GDSS architecture

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The hardware components of GDSS include:

� General purpose I/O devices (terminal, CRT, voice

I/O)

� Central processor

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� Central processor

� Common viewing screen (for the group) or individual

monitor (for each participant)

� A network system linking the different

sited/participants to each other

� Although most group decision meetings are face-to-

face, technology is starting to be applied to make it

possible for participants to be separated in space

and/or time.

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and/or time.

� These technologically enhanced meetings include

computer conferences and audio and video

teleconferences.

� DeSanctis and Gallupe discuss the four combinations

of proximity and separation in space and in time.

Components of a GDSS and GDSS Software

� Database

� Model base

� Dialogue manager

� Communication capability

�

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� Special software (also called GroupWare)

� For example Lotus Notes

� people located around the world work on the same project, documents, and files, efficiently and at the same time

� Same time, same place

� Same time, different place* (ระยะใกล)้� Same time, different place**(ระยะไกล)� Different time, different place

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� Different time, different place

GDSS Alternatives

Local area

decision network

Wide area

decision network

highDecision frequency

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Decision

roomTeleconferencing

Location of group members

close distant

lowDecision frequency

1. Decision room

� In the decision room GDSS, decision-makers sit

around a horseshoe-shaped desk facing a large

screen.

� Each participant has access to a terminal; for

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� Each participant has access to a terminal; for

individual participant input, but at the same time can

see the large screen.

� The large screen is used to summarize the input from

individual participants.

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� The motivation for creating a decision room comes

from the observation that in almost all organization

office automation has resulted in terminals being

ubiquitous in work areas.

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ubiquitous in work areas.

� However, as soon as one-steps into the conference

room, technology is a telephone and high

technology is a speakerphone. The personal and

online computer capabilities used routinely

elsewhere are not available.

� In a typical decision room, terminals (or PCs) are not

provided at some or all of the seating positions at a

conference table.

� Input of these terminals is by keyboard, mouse, touch-

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� Input of these terminals is by keyboard, mouse, touch-

screen, or some combination of these.

� Participants can do “private work” at their individual

displays.

� One member of the group (as a “chauffeur”) operates

the software needed to create the “public” display

that can be seen by everyone.

� In some rooms, multiple public screens are provided

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� In some rooms, multiple public screens are provided

where one screen is used for the current discussion

and the others for reference or slowly changing

information.

� Because decision rooms are designed for senior

managers, they tend to have an “executive feel” to

them.

� Even the experimental laboratories are being created

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� Even the experimental laboratories are being created

with plush carpeting and quality furnishings.

2. Local decision network (LDN)

� In LDN, the participants are dispersed in a limited

geographical area. They can participate from their

own offices and express their views.

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� This architecture includes a central processor with

dedicated software for storing the results.

3. Teleconferencing

Terminal

Public screen

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Video camera

� Teleconferencing enables decision-makers in

scattered geographic regions to see and hear each

other as they participate in group decision-making.

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4. Remote decision making

� Remote decision making advocates “uninterrupted

communication” on a regular basis among a fixed

number of decision makers in a geographically

dispersed organization.

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dispersed organization.

� In this type of architecture there is no need to

schedule meeting in advance as in teleconferencing.

� A participant may send his or her input to central

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� A participant may send his or her input to central

database (electronic mailbox); then the other

participants respond to this input.

� Eventually a decision is made by consensus.

GDSS in use

� Electronic meeting system (Same time, same place)

� Electronic meeting room

� Electronic boardroom

� War room

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� War room

� Workflow system (Different time, different place)

Characteristics of GDSS

� Special design

� A number of specialized software packages called

groupware support all aspects of group decision

making.

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making.

� These packages allow two or more individuals in

the group to effectively work together to use word

processing, database, spreadsheet, and related

software packages.

� In some cases, the software packages are modified

to allow access by a number of group numbers.

�Ease of use

�Specific and general support

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�Specific and general support

� งานวจิัยที5ศกึษาการใชง้านของ Groupware เป็นงานในสาขา Computer-supported cooperative work(CSCW)

� Groupware = Computer-based systems that support

groups of people engaged in a common task (or goal)

and that provide an interface to a shared

environment.

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� GDSS should provide solutions for both specific and

general problems.

� Generalized software packages can assist in many

group decision-making settings.

� Some group situations, however, call for highly

specific, tailor-made GDSS approaches. These

settings may require development of specialized

software procedures.

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software procedures.

Suppression of negative group behavior

� Dominant individuals can take over the discussion,

which can prevent other members of the group

from presenting creative alternatives.

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� Many GDSS designers are developing software and

hardware systems that will reduce the types of

problems.

Support of positive group behavior

� For example, the Delphi approach allows group

decision making in which decision makers are

geographically dispersed throughout the country or

the world.

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GDSS capabilities

Word processing and text manipulation

� Group members need access to and support from

word processing programs and text manipulation

packages.

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packages.

� These packages must go beyond traditional word

processing to provide multiple group members access

to common files.

� This access allows several members in a group setting

to work on common documents at the same time,

including reports, forecasts, and proposals.

Database and file manipulation

� Database capabilities are often a requirement in group

decision making setting.

� In some cases, these capabilities allow decision

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� In some cases, these capabilities allow decision

makers to obtain information needed to make

effective group decisions.

Worksheet or spreadsheet abilities

� If group decision support systems become more

important in business, worksheet packages may

start to incorporate group features.

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start to incorporate group features.

Graphics packages

� Graphical packages should allow the users to

develop the attractive and informative

illustrations, drawing, and pictures that can be

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illustrations, drawing, and pictures that can be

directly incorporated into reports and other

documents.

Decision making aids

� Includes computer programs that can assist in listing

alternatives, analyzing potential solutions,

incorporating subjective information into decisions,

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incorporating subjective information into decisions,

and ranking alternatives using a variety of methods.

Communications facilities

� LAN and telecommunication.

Help facilities

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Help facilities

� GDSS were developed in response to growing

concern over the quality and effectiveness of

meetings.

GDSS can support

� Problem formulation

� Analysis

� Choice

� implementation

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� implementation

Role of GDSS

� On-line entry and solution of decision model

� Bookkeeping

� Anonymous discussion and sharing of ideas

�Required networked system

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�Required networked system

�Encourages quiet individuals to contribute to

discussion

�Discourages intimidation and domination of

discussion

� Automated vote tally and summary of results

Potential benefits of GDSS

� More thorough exploration of values

� Better sharing of information

� More creative option generation

� More systematic option evaluation

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� More systematic option evaluation

� Increased communication

� Increased participation

� Increased group cohesion

� Increased acceptance of group decision