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I HC THI NGUYNKHOA CNTT

BO CO THC TP C S

CH : nghin cu phng php hi quy v ng dng d bochi ph sn xut ca doanh nghip

Sinh vin thc hin : Th Loan

Lp : Tin hc kinh t - K8A

Gio vin hng dn : Vn i

Thi nguyn, thng 03 nm 2011

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Li ni u

Ngy nay, phn tch v d bo kinh t l nhu cu khng th thiu cca mi hot ng kinh t-x hi, khoa hc-k thut.c rt nhiu phng

php phn tch v d bo kinh t nh phng php chuyn gia, phng phphi quy, phng php da vo dy s thi gian,v.v

Khi cng ngh ngy cng pht trin, n gn lin vi cuc sng conngi mi lnh vc, mi ngnh ngh. c bit trong lnh vc kinh t c rtnhiu ng dng cng ngh thng tin. S ra i ca nhng phn mm gipch rt nhiu cho vic qun l, phn tch, d bo kinh t ca doanh nghipnh access, c++, sql, visual basic 6.0, v.vnhng visual basic 6.0 c th coil mt cng c d hc nht.

V vy trong t thc tp ny em chn ti " nghin cu phngphp hi quy v ng dng d bo chi ph sn xut ca doanh nghip ". Vimc ch n li nhng kin thc hc, nhng kin thc lp trnh v xydng c chng trnh ng dng cho doanh nghip.

Ni dung nghin cu gm:

Tm hiu kin thc v phng php hi quy tuyn tnh;

Tm hiu v ngn ng VB 6.0;

Xy dng chng trnh m.

Do thi gian c hn, kin thc cn hn hp ln bo co cn nhiu thiust, em rt mong c s hng dn v gp ca cc thy c bo coc hon thin hn.

Em xin chn thnh cm n nh trng to iu kin cho chng em lm ti thc tp c s ny, gip cho em bc u lm quen vi thc tp vhc cch phn tch tnh hnh kinh t. V c bit em xin gi li cm n tithy Vn i, ngi tn tnh hng dn em trong thi gian lm ti.

Em xin chn thnh cm n!

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CHNG1:TNG QUAN V TI1.1 khi nim

D bo l mt khoa hc v ngh thut tin on nhng s vic s xy ratrong tng lai, trn c s phn tch khao hc v cc d liu thu thpc.khi tin hnh d bo ta cn c vo vic thu thp, x l s liu trongqu kh v hin ti xc nh xu hng vn ng ca cc hin tng trongtng lai nh vo mt s m hnh ton hc.

D bo c th l mt d on mang tnh ch quan hoc trc gic v tnglai nhng cho d bo c chnh xc hn, ngi ta c loi tr nhng tnhch quan ca ngi lm d bo.

1.2. ngha v vai tr ca phn tch v d bo trong qu trnh ra quytnh kinh doanh

* ngha

Dng d bo cc mc tng lai ca hin tng, qua gipcc nh qun tr doanh nghip ch ng ra cc k hoch v cc quytnh cn thit cn thit phc v cho qu trnh sn xut kinh doanh, u t,qung b quy m sn xut. knh phn phi sn phm, ngun cung cp tichnh v chun b y cho s pht trin trong thi gian ti.

D bo c thc hin mt cch nghim tc cn to iu kin nngcao kh nng cnh tranh trn th trng.

D bo chnh xc s gim bt mc ri ro cho doanh nghip niring v ton b nn kinh t ni chung.

D bo chnh xc l cn c cc nh hoch nh cc chnh sch phttrin kinh t c xy dng c c s khoa hc v mang li hiu qu kinh tcao.

* Vai tr

To ra li th cnh tranh.

Cng tc d bo l mt b phn khng th thiu trong hot ngca cc doanh nghip, trong tng phng ban.

1.3. Phng php hi quy1.3.1 khi nim

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Phn tch hi quy l tm quan h ph thuc ca mt bin (gi l binph thuc) v mt hoc nhiu bin khc, c gi l bin c lp nhm mcch c lng gi tr k vng ca bin ph thuc khi bit trc gi tr ca

bin c lp.

Lin h tng quan l mi lin h khng hon ton cht ch gia tiu

thc nguyn nhn v tiu thc kt qu. C mi gi tr ca tiu thc nguynnhn s c nhiu gi tr tng ng ca tiu thc kt qu. V d mi lin hgia s ng sn phm v gi thnh n v sn phm. khng phi khi khilng sn phm tng ln th gi thnh n v sn phm s gim hoc tngtheo mt t l tng ng. phn nh mi lin h tng quan phi nghincu hin tng s ln, tc l thu thp ti liu v tiu thc nguyn nhn vtiu thc kt qu ca nhiu n v.

1.3.2. Nhng iu cn bn v phn tch hi quy

Quan h hm s:L quan h ton hc gia cc bin gii thch (l bin xy ra) v bin ph

thuc (l bin kt qu).

Hm tuyn tnh:

Tng quan tuyn tnh c bn:

Y l mt hm ca X

Nu X tng 1 n v th Y tng b1 n vDu hiu d on cc h s.

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Trc khi c lng mt m hnh c th, chng ta nn bit nhng du

hiu ca cc h s khc bit. Nu tng quan gia bin ph thuc vi bin

c lp no l dng th h s bin c lp l dng. Nu tng quan

gia bin ph thuc vi bin c lp no l m th h s bin c lp

l m.

Phn d v yu t sai s

Yu t sai s l mt trong nhng thc tin tiu chun trong qu trnh

nh ra phng trnh c lng. Gi tr thc t ca bin ph thuc bng gi

tr d on (c tnh qua phng trnh v cc h s c lng) cng vi

yu t sai s ngu nhin.

Tng quan ni sinh

Tng quan ni sinh l hin tng khi mt bin gii thch trong m hnh

ph thuc vo cc bin gii thch khc. Kt qu phn tch hi quy s khng

c gi tr v n cng l mt vn th v ny sinh khi xem xt li nhng

cng vic ca mt ngi no .

1.3.3. ngha ca phn tch hi quy

Phng php phn tch hi quy l phng php thng c s dng nghin cu mi lin h gia cc hin tng, nh mi lin h gia cc yu tu vo ca qu trnh sn xut vi kt qu sn xut, mi lin h gia thunhp v tiu dng.

Phn tch hi qui gii quyt cc vn sau:

- c lng gi tr trung bnh ca bin ph thuc vi gi tr cho ca

bin c lp.- Kim nh gi thit v bn cht ca s ph thuc.

- D on gi tr trung bnh ca bin ph thuc khi bit gi tr ca ccbin c lp.

- Kt hp cc vn trn.

1.4. m hnh hi quy n

1.4.1. M hnh hi quy n: l m hnh hi quy gia mt tiu thc nguyn

nhn v mt tiu thc kt qu. M hnh hi quy n c th l m hnh phituyn tnh (m hnh ng cong) hoc m hnh tuyn tnh (m hnh ngthng).

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Phng trnh hi quy n bin (ng thng) c dng tng qut:

Y=a+bX

Trong :

Y: l bin s ph thuc;

X: l bin s c lp;a: l tung gc hay nt chn;

b: dc hay h s gc.

V d:

Phng trnh tng chi ph ca doanh nghip c dng:

Y=a+bX; (1)

Trong :

Y: tng chi ph pht sinh trong k;

X: khi lng sn phm tiu th;

a: tng chi ph bt bin;

b: tng chi ph kh bin n v sn phm;

bX: tng chi ph kh bin.

c nhiu phng php thng k tnh a, b nh: phng php cc tr,phng php bnh phng nh nht.

* cc h s a, b c xc nh bng phng php bnh phng nhnht:

(y - x )2=min (2)

T c h phng trnh sau:

(I)2xy a x b x

y na b x

= +

= +

V d: c ti liu v s lao ng v gi tr sn xut ca 10 doanh nghip nhsau:

Stt Lao ng (ngi) Gi tr sn xut (tng)

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1 60 9,252 78 8,733 90 10,624 115 13,645 126 10,93

6 169 14,317 198 22,108 226 19,179 250 25,2010 300 27,50

tm a, b cn tnh x , y , xy , 2x bng cch lp bng sau:

thay s liu vo phng trnh (I) :161,45 10 1612

30814,13 1612 318226

a b

a b

= +

= +gii h phng trnh, ta c:

a= 2,927 b=0,082

M hnh hi quy phn nh mi lin h gia s lng lao ng v gi trsn xut l: =2,927+0,082xbng cch bin bin i h phng trnh (I), ta c th tnh a, b nh sau:

2

*

x

xy x yb

=

a=y - bx2x= 2x - (x )2

1.4.2. H s tng quan

H s tng quan (r) l mt ch s thng k o lng mi lin h tngquan gia hai bin s. N dc s dng nh gi mc cht ch cami lin h tng quan. H s tng quan c gi tr t -1 n 1.

X y xy X2 Y2

60 9,25 555,00 3600 85,562578 8,73 680,94 608490 10,62 955,80 8100 112,7844115 13,64 1568,60 13225 186,0496126 10,93 1377,18 15876 119,4649169 14,31 2418,39 28561 204,7761198 22,10 4375,80 39204 488,4100226 19,17 4332,42 51076 367,4889250 25,20 6300,00 62500 635,0400

300 27,50 8250,00 90000 756,2500x =

1612

161, 45y = xy =30814,13

2x =318226

2 3032,039y =

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H s tng quan bng 0 (hay gn 0) c ngha l hai bin s khng clin h g vi nhau; ngc li nu h s bng -1 hay 1 c ngha l hai bin sc mt mi lin h tuyt i. Nu gi tr ca h s tng quan l m (r 0) c ngha l khi x tng cao th y

cng tng, v khi x tng cao th y cng gim theo.1.5. Cng thc nh gi tin cy

1.5.1.Sai s trung bnh (Mean error):

Cc li trung bnh ca mt s quan st thy bng cch ly gi tr trung bnh

ca cc sai tch cc v tiu cc.

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.2. Sai s tuyt i trung bnh (Mean absolute error):

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.3. Phn trm sai s trung bnh (Mean percentage error):

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.4. Phn trm sai s tuyt i trung bnh (Mean absolute percentage

error):

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.5. Sai s bnh phng trung bnh (Mean squared error):

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.6 Sai s bnh phng trung bnh chun (Root mean squared error ):

- Cng thc tnh :

1.5.7. H s U (Theils U- H s khng ngang bng):

- Cng thc tnh :

8

n

FAME

tt =

)(

n

FAMAE

tt =

[ ] %100/)( xn

AFAMPE ttt =

%100/)(

xn

AFAMAPE

ttt =

n

FAMSE

tt =

2)(

MSERMSE=

=

2

1

2

)(

)(

tt

tt

AA

FAU

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CHNG 2: CNG C H TR VISUAL BASIC 6.0

2.1. Visual basic vi cng vic lp trnh

2.1.1 visual basic bao gm nhng g?Cc thnh phn iu khin l nhng cng c trn ca s hp cng cbn t Form tng tc vi ngi dng v kim sot quy trnh hot ngca chng trnh.

Visual basic cho bn mt h thng pht trin ng dng windowshon ho trong mt gi sn phm. N cho php bn vit, sa i, kim tra v

bin dch chng trnh.Chng trnh l mt tp cc ch th lnh m my tnh phi thc hin

lm mt vic g .D n l mt tp cc tp tin bn to ra to nn ng dng ca bn.

cc tp tin ny lm vic vi nhau theo cng dng thc ca d n, sau

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c bin dch thnh chng trnh c th thc thi m ngi dng np vchy t windows bng cch nhp i chut ln biu tng ca chng trnh.

Trnh bin dch l mt h thng chuyn i chng trnh bn vitthnh ng dng c th thc thi trn my tnh.2.1.2. Cc khi nim

o iu khin: Cc thnh phn c sn ngi lp trnh to giao dintng tc vi ngi dng.

Mi iu khin thc cht l mt i tng, do vy n s c mt s imc trng cho i tng, chng hn nh cc thuc tnh, cc phng thc &cc s kin.

o Thuc tnh: Cc c trng ca mt iu khin to nn dng v caiu khin .

o Phng thc: Cc iu khin c th thc thi mt s tc v no ,

cc tc v ny c nh ngha sn bn trong cc phng thc (cn gi lchng trnh con: hm & th tc), ngi lp trnh c th gi thc thi cc

phng thc ny nu cn.

o S kin: l hnh ng ca ngi dng tc ng ln ng dng angthc thi.

2.1.3. cc bc lp trnh visual basic1. Khi ng visual basic.2. To mt d n mi hoc m mt d n ang tn ti.

3. Vit v kim tra chng trnh.4. Bin dch chng trnh thnh ng dng c th thc thi.5. Thot visual basic.6. Trin khai ng dng cho ngi dng cui.

2.2. Mi trng lp trnh visual basicIDE l tn tt ca mi trng pht trin tch hp (Integrated

Development Environment), y l ni to ra cc chng trnh Visual Basic.IDE ca Visual Basic l ni tp trung cc menu, thanh cng c v ca

s to ra chng trnh. Mi mt thnh phn ca IDE c cc tnh nng nhhng n cc hot ng lp trnh khc nhau.

Khi khi ng VB6 bn s thy m ra nhiu ca s (windows),scrollbars, v.v.. v nm chng ln l New Project dialog. y VB6 cho

bn chn mt trong nhiu loi cng trnh.

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Hnh 2.1: Hp thoi to d n mi ca Visual Basic

Kch chut chn Standard EXE nh tip open. Mi trng lm vic suthin:

Hnh 2.2: Mn hnh giao din chnh ca Visual Basic

2.2.1. Ca s FormL vng lm vic chnh, ni thng dng thit k cc hp thoi, ca s -

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giao din ca ngi s dng vi ng dng phn mm.

Hnh 2.3: form

2.2.2. Thanh thc n v thanh cng c chun ca VB

Hnh 2.4: Thanh thc n v thanh cng c

Thanh ny cha cc thc n chnh ca VB cng ging nh thanh thc nca cc phn mm khc trong Microsoft nh Word v Execl.2.2.3. Ca s Properties

ca s ny cho php xem xt v sa i cc thuc tnh ca biu mu vcc iu khin trong lc thit k

Phn trn ca s l cc danh sch i tng, i tng c chn trongdanh sch ny c cc thuc tnh ca n hin th trong phn bn di ca ca

s.

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Hnh 2.5 Ca s Properties

2.2.4. Ca s Project Explorer

Ni qun l ton b cc thnh phn m ngi lp trnh lm c trn dn ca VB hin thi.

Hnh 2.6: Ca s project2.2.5 hp cng c

Hp cng c cha cc iu khin t ln Form

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Hnh 2.7 : Toolbox

2.3. Cc kiu d liu

Mi kiu d liu quy nh mt tp hp cc gi tr v mt tp cc phpton c s dng trn tp gi tr .a) Kiu s nguyn.

Tu nhu cu s dng s nh hay ln m ta dng kiu ph hp trong scc kiu sau:- Byte: kch thc 1 byte, phm vi t 0 n 255.- Integer: kch thc 2 bytes, phm vi t -32768 n 32767.- Long: kch thc 4 bytes, phm vi t -231 n 231-1.

Cc php ton: cng, tr, nhn, chia, lu tha, div, mod tng ng vicc k hiu +, - , *, /, ^, \, mod. Trong , div l php chia ly phn nguyn,mod l php chia ly phn d.b) Kiu s thc.- Single: kch thc 4 byte, xc nh n 38 ch s.- Double: kch thc 8 byte, xc nh n 300 ch s.c) Kiu chui (string)

Chui c t gia hai du c di ln.Php ton: ni chui ng vi k hiu & hoc +. Ch nhng trng

hp kt qu sai do VB chuyn kiu t ng.d) Kiu logic (Boolean)

Ch c hai gi tr True, false hoc 1,0. Cc php ton gm hi, tuyn,ph nh ng vi k hiu and, or, not.e) Kiu ngy, gi (Date)

Kch thc 8 byte ghi c c ngy ln gi. Thng thng nu chdng ngy ta vit gia hai du #.

V d: #22/12/2007#, #22-12-2007#Php ton: cng, tr gia ngy v s; v php tr gia ngy v ngy

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f) kiu object: lu tr hnh nh hoc tham chiu i tng. Kch thc 4byte

2.4. Khai bo bin

khai bo bin ta dng lnh Dim:Dim [As]Bin khai bo trong th tc ch tn ti khi th tc thi hnh. N s bin

mt khi th tc chm dt. Gi tr ca bin trong th tc l cc b i vi thtc , ngha l ta khng th truy nhp bin t bn ngoi th tc. Nh , tac th dng trng tn bin cc b trong nhng th tc khc nha.

Kiu d liu trong khai bo Dim c th l nhng kiu c bn nh Integer,String hoc Currency. Ta cng c th dng i tng ca VB (nh Object,Form1, TextBox) hoc ca cc ng dng khc.

Khai bo bin trong phn Declarations ca mt m-un ngha l bin tng ti v c tm hot ng trong m-un .

Khai bo bin vi t kho Public ngha l bin tn ti v c tm hotng ca ton ng dng .

Khai bo bin cc b vi t kho Static ngha l mc du bin binmt khi th tc chm dt, nhng gi tr ca n vn c gi li tip tchot ng khi th tc c gi trong ln sau.2.5. Hng

Dng cha nhng d liu tm thi nhng khng thay i trong sut thi

gian chng trnh hot ng. S dng hng s lm chng trnh sng sa vd c nh nhng tn gi nh thay v cc con s. VB cung cp mt s hngnh ngha sn, nhng ta c th t to hng.

Ta c th dng ca s Object Browser xem danh sch cc ng dnghng c sn ca VB v VBA( Visual basic for Application). Cc ng dngkhc cung cp nhng th vin i tng, nh Microsoft Exel, MicrosoftProject, hoc cc th vin ca iu khin ActiveX cng c hng nh nghasn.

Trong trng hp trng tn hng trong nhng th vin khc nhau, ta c th

dung cch ch r tham chiu hng:[][]Libname l tn lp, tn iu khin hoc tn th vin.

Khai bo hng

|Public|private|Const[As]= 2.6. Cu trc iu khin2.6.1. Cu trc chn

So snh mc nh trong Visual basic mc nh l so snh c phn bit c

ch. Nu mun tt ch ny, ta thm dng khai bo sau vo chng tnhOption Copare TextNu mun tr v trng thi ban u, c 2 cch:

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a dng khai bo:Option Compare Binary

Ch cn xo dng khai bo Option Compare TextCc biu thc so snh

K

hiu

ngha

= Bng Khc> Ln hn< Nh hn>= Ln hn

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Select Case

Case

Khi lnh 1

Case

Khi lnh 2....................

Case else

Khi lnh n

End Select

Mi danh sch biu thc cha mt hoc nhiu gi tr, cc gi tr cchnhau bng du phy. Mi khi lnh c th cha t 0 n nhiu dng lnh.

Nu c hn mt Case tho mn iu kin th Case u tin c thc hin.

Case else khng nht thit phi c, dng trong trng hp cn li ca ccCase trc.

2.6.2. Cu trc lp

a) Do..loop

Thi hnh mt khi lnh vi s ln lp khng nh trc, tng , mtbiu thc iu kin dng so snh quyt nh vng lp c tip tc haykhng. iu kin phi quy v False hoc True.

Kiu 1:

Do While

Loop

Kiu 2:Vng lp lun c t nht mt ln thi hnh khi lnh

Do

Loop While

Kiu 3: Lp trong khi iu kin l FalseDo until

Loop

Kiu 4: Lp trong khi iu kin l False v c t nht mt ln thi hnhkhi lnh

Do

Loop Until

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b) For...Next

Bit trc s ln lp. Ta dng bin m tng dn hoc gim dn trongvng lp.

For = To [Step ]

Next []

Bin m, im u, im cui v bc nhy l nhng gi tr s.

Bc nhy c th l m hoc dng. Nu bc nhy l dng, im uphi nh hn hoc bng im cui, nu bc nhy l m th ngc li.

c) For Each...Next

Tng t vng lp For... Next, nhng n lp khi lnh theo s phn tca mt tp cc i tng hay mt mng thay v theo s ln lp xc nh.Vng lp ny tin li khi ta khng bit chnh xc bao nhiu phn t trong tphp.

For Each In

Next

d) Vng lp While...Wend

Tng t vng lp Do...While, nhng ta khing th thot vng lp bng

lnh Exit. V vy, vng lp kiu ny ch thot khi biu thc iu kin sai.While

Wend

e) Cu lnh GoTo

c dng cho by li.

On Error Goto ErrorHandler

Khi c li, chng trnh s nhy n nhn ErrorHandler v thi hnh lnh

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CHNG 3: CHNG TRNH THC NGHIM

3.1. Bi ton

Cho bng s liu:nm Doanh thu Chi ph

1995 26 8

1996 38 12

1997 34 13

1998 40 15

1999 28 13

2000 51 29

2001 44 22

2002 50 21

2003 54 30

2004 45 26

2005 40 23

2006 42 25

2007 35 15

2008 50 27

Hy d bo chi ph sn xut ca doanh nghip

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3.2. chng trnh th nghim3.2.1. Form d liu

Hin th d liu t bng s liu trong c s d liu ra form tnh ton

Hnh 3.1: Form d liu

3.2.2. form nhp thm d liu vo c s d liu

Nu trong c s d liu cha c d liu cho nm m ta mun tnh th nhnx l nhp thm s liu vo c s d liu

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Hnh 3.2 form nhp thm d liu vo c s d liu

3.2.3. Form cha kt qu d boSau khi tnh ton kt d bo v cc gi tr nh gi tin cy s c

a sang form kt qu.

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v lu vo bng kt qu trong c s d liu nh sau:

Hnh 3.3: kt qu d bo

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CHNG 4: TNG KT V HNG PHT TRIN

4.1. Kt lun

Sau khi lm ti thc tp c s vi nhng d liu xut nhp ngin v phn tch v d bo kinh t, em hiu su hn v cng vic trong

lnh vc phn tch v d bo kinh t.

Bn cnh , thc tp c s gip em hiu thm v mt ngn ng lp

trnh mi l Visua basic 6.0. Em bc u tm hiu v ngn ng ny tuy

l vn cha thnh tho v cng cha hiu ht v ngn ng ny. ng thi

vi l nhng kin thc thu thp v cng vic phn tch v d bo gip emhiu hn v hot ng d bo.

4.2. Hng pht trin

Chng trnh thc nghim vn cn nhiu hn ch cn hon thin hnna. cn phn tch v d bo vi cc phng php khc so snh, nh giv a ra kt qu d bo chnh xc.

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Ti liu tham kho

1) Bc u hc visual basic

2) Nhng bi thc hnh c s d liu visual basic ca inh Xun Lm- nhxut bn thng k3)Bi ging Phn tch v d bo kinh th B mn HTTHKT- Khoa CNTT4) Microsoff visual basic 6.0 v lp trnh c s d liu ca Nguyn Th

Ngc Mai v Nguyn Hu Anh - nh xut bn lao ng-x hi

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NHN XT V NH GI CA GIO VIN HNG

DN

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Thi Nguyn, Ngy thng nm 2010

G.V HNG DN

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NHN XT V NH GI CA GIO VIN PHN BIN

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Thi nguyn, Ngy thng nm 2010

G.V PHN BIN

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