ENERGY EFFICIENCY &HUMAN ECONOMIC WELFARE

By Garry Jacobs and Ivo Šlaus

Club of Rome International Conference on “The Future of Energy & Interconnected Challenges of the

21st Century”Basel -- October 17-18, 2011

Sustainable Human Welfare

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Security Physical

Peace Energy Climate

Social Income & employment Health & retirement Social stability

Psychological Absence of catastrophic threats Confidence in ourselves, our institutions &

opportunities

Human Economic Welfare Index (HEWI) Composite index of human economic welfare Encompasses factors omitted by GDP Maintains utility of an easily measured index, e.g.

CPI Components of HEWI

Personal Disposable Income (PDI)Human Welfare Government Expenditure (HWGE)Full Employment Index (FEI) Economic Welfare Index (EWI) -- equalityCombined Education Index (CEI)Health Adjusted Life Expectancy Index (HALE)Energy Efficiency Index (EEI)3

Energy Intensity 1830-2000

Source : Marina Fischer-Kowalski and Helga Weisz, “Transition to a Globally Sustainable Metabolism—Possible and Impossible Futures” Presented at the 2008 Conference of the International Society for Ecological Economics, Nairobi, Kenya, August 2008; p. 7.

Energy Intensity is Energy consumption per unit of GDP4

75%

Projected US Energy Intensity 2008-2035

Source EAI. 2008 =1

5

15%

Evolution of economy: Services now account for 78% of US GDP & 64% of global output

Fossil Fuel Energy Intensity for Selected OECD Countries 1970–2008

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USA 60%

UK 55%

Switz 40%

Fossil Fuel Energy Efficiency Index (EEI) Relates fossil fuel energy consumption to Economic

Welfare Household consumption expenditure + Government welfare related expenditure

Health Education Social protection & employment insurance Housing Environmental protection

Measures changes over sliding10 year periods Higher EEI reflects investments in sustainability

Shift to renewable sources Improved energy efficiency Shift to less energy-intensive economic activities

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EEI for Select Countries: 1995 - 2008

Energy Intensity unit: Btu/ 2000 intl dollars PPP; FFEC in BTU per dollar. HWE in constant $2005 PPP

CountryEnergy

Intensity

FFEC as %

energy consumed

FFEC/HWE 1995

FFEC/HWE 2005

FFEC/HWE 2008

EEI 2005

US 9,146 85% 11499 8941 8420 1.16

UK 5,451 89% 7667 5765 5235 1.15

Sweden 8,857 37% 6356 4683 4207 1.13

India 7,582 92% 11911 9834   1.06

Germany 6,573 85% 7611 6732 6499 1.05

China 13,919 93% 30386 28181   1.04

Japan 6,636 83% 7707 7465 7485 1.02

Italy 5,793 91% 6664 6488 6128 1.01

Brazil 6,906 60% 5145 5508 5478 0.98

Spain 6,481 85% 6104 6455 5720 0.94

8 FFEC in USA 27% in 18 years

Trends in EEI 1975 to 2005

Country FFEC/HWE for 1975

FFEC/HWE for 2005

EEI 1985

EEI 1995

EEI 2005

EEI30

1975-05

China 81,589 28,181 1.22 1.04 1.04 1.65

Sweden 12,774 4,683 1.35 1.08 1.13 1.63

UK 13,299 5,765 1.21 1.13 1.15 1.57

US 20,161 8,941 1.40 1.07 1.16 1.56

Japan 13,799 7,465 1.33 1.01 1.02 1.46

Italy 10,505 6,488 1.23 1.01 1.01 1.38

Spain 7,316 6,455 1.02 1.03 0.94 1.12

India 8,664 9,834 1.00 0.92 1.06 0.87

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Human Economic Welfare Index (2005)

Country GDP PDI EWI FEI CEI EEI HEWIHEWI as% GDP

India 2,234 1,821 1,638 0.96 1.02 1.06 1,702 76%

China 4,076 2,019 1,827 0.96 1.06 1.04 1,924 47%

South Africa 8,504 5,782 4,690 0.69 1.06 1.01 3,465 41%

Brazil 8,505 5,459 4,420 0.92 1.12 0.98 4,479 53%

Turkey 10,977 8,291 7,112 0.84 1.08 1.02 6,596 60%

Croatia 14,271 8,667 9,720 0.80 1.03 1.00 8,032 56%

Mexico 12,563 9,492 8,060 0.96 1.04 1.06 8,466 67%

Russia 11,861 10,564 10,297 0.92 1.02 1.05 10,119 85%

Korea, Rep 22,783 11,875 11,764 0.95 1.16 1.05 13,606 60%

Spain 27,377 18,569 20,057 0.86 1.09 0.94 17,676 65%

Japan 30,310 16,571 18,186 0.92 1.05 1.02 17,916 59%

Italy 28,144 19,205 20,082 0.83 1.08 1.01 18,196 65%

Germany 31,378 21,449 23,700 0.85 1.11 1.05 23,504 75%

Sweden 32,319 16,183 20,592 0.89 1.16 1.13 24,001 74%

UK 32,690 22,364 23,488 0.91 1.10 1.15 27,196 83%

US 41,833 29,516 27,483 0.93 1.01 1.16 30,146 72%

Thank You