Number of people employed as a temporary employee divided by total non farm payroll employment

June 2009 Recession Officially EndedJuly 2009 Temp Penetration Trend Turns PositiveOct 2009 1st Job Growth >100,000 (Household Survey)Nov 2009 1st Job Growth (Payroll Survey)

Temp EmploymentTemporary help services lost 1,200 jobs.

Why is the Temp Penetration Rate Important?“Temporary Help Employment is a Leading Indicator for Nonfarm Employment—Staffing job trends lead nonfarm employment by three months when the economy is emerging from a recession and by six months during periods of normal economic growth.” American Staffing Association

US Employment Situation

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.71% no change

Temp Penetration Rate: 1.71% no change

Job Loss/Gain: + 54,000 Jobs Job Loss/Gain: + 54,000 Jobs

Unemployment Rate: 9.1% +0.1% Unemployment Rate: 9.1% +0.1%

I

Unemployment Rate: Bachelor’s Degree or higher

Jan Feb March April May4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.5%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, American Staffing Association

Nonfarm Payroll – Job Growth Details Jobs Added/LostPrivate Sector 83,000Government Sector -29,000Total 54,000

Job Gains Change from

Previous Month Professional & Business Services 44,000Financial Activities 3,000Construction 2,000Education &

34,000Health Services - Education 6,600 - Healthcare 17,400 - Social Assistance 9,800

Job Loses

Change from Previous Month

Government -29,000

Retail Trade -8,500

Leisure & Hospitality -6,000

Manufacturing -5,000

4th Quarter GDP: 1.8% (2nd Estimate)4th Quarter GDP: 1.8% (2nd Estimate)

Video, Job Loss/Gain & GDP

Source: CNBC, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Wall Street Journal

Video & Economic SummaryVideo & Economic Summary

Videos start with 15 sec commercial

Tracking Job Growth 2011

  2009 2010

 Compone

nts of GDP 1st 2nd 3rd 4th  1st 2nd 3rd 4th 

Consumers   

-0.34% -1.12% 1.41% 0.69% 1.33% 1.54% 1.67% 1.53

(Personal Consumption)*Businesses  

-6.80% -2.30% 1.22% 2.70% 3.04% 2.88% 1.80% 1.45

(Gross Private Domestic Investment)Net Exports                   (Exports-Imports) 2.88% 1.47% -1.37% 1.90% -0.31% -3.50% -1.70% -.06

Government  -0.61% 1.24% 0.33% -0.28% -0.32% 0.80% 0.79% -1.07Total GDP -4.90% -7.00% 1.60% 5.00% 3.70% 1.72% 2.56% 1.85

                 

*Inventories  

-1.09% -1.03% 1.10% 2.83% 2.64% 0.82% 1.61% 1.19%component of Business

Disappointing Jobs Report ( 7 min 31 sec) Austan Goolsby, Chief Economist, President's Econ Adv Board (June 5, 2011)

Click to Play

Economists’ Reactions to the Weaker than expected Jobs Numbers:

–The leading indicators of payroll growth, Temporary Help-Supply Payrolls, have stalled. We regard this as disconcerting. Temporary Help Supply payrolls actually decreased 1,000, following a decline of 2,000 in April. The back-to-back declines are disconcerting, although not yet compelling. Temporary Help-Supply payrolls are regarded as a leading indication of broader payroll trends. The general trend in Temporary payrolls remains consistent with further acceleration in private sector payrolls. –Ray Stone, Stone & McCarthy

–The deceleration in employment growth, together with a string of disappointing results on other indicators, calls into question the sustainability of the recovery. However, we are still inclined to believe that this is a temporary soft patch reflecting supply chain disruptions, a spike in gasoline prices (which has been partially unwound), and weather-related influences. Also, we believe that calendar effects and other special factors had some impact on the May employment data. However, for this thesis to be confirmed, we will need to see a solid rebound in job growth in June — something north of +150,000. –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

GDP Projections Survey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment Rate ProjectionsSurvey of Economists (Wall Street Journal)

Projections & Job Growth History

Source: Wall Street JournalPlease note: WSJ Projections were released prior to the BLS report

May’s Jobs Report Job Market Loses Momentum (Wall Street Journal)

May’s Jobs Report Job Market Loses Momentum (Wall Street Journal)