녹색선진국 진입을 위한 14-33 Post-2012 에너지·산업부문 저탄소 ... · 2021. 1. 9. · KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE 노동운 녹색선진국 진입을 위한

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

www.keei.re.kr

노 동 운

녹색선진국 진입을 위한 Post-2012에너지·산업부문저탄소 전략 연구

기본연구 보고서

14-33

녹색

선진

국 진

입을

위한

Post-

2012

에너

지·

산업

부문

저탄

소 전

략 연

구

KOREA ENERGY ECONOMICS INSTITUTE

www.keei.re.kr

노 동 운

녹색선진국 진입을 위한 Post-2012에너지·산업부문저탄소 전략 연구

기본연구 보고서

14-33

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The former government set the midterm ad long term goal for the

low carbon green growth. The core of the green growth policy was

the 2020 GHG emission reduction target. The command and control

system was introduced in 2012, and GHG emission trading scheme

is going to start in 2015. The Renewable Portfolio Standard(RPS)

which was switched from Feed-in-Tariff(FIT) was introduced in 2012

to increase the renewable energy.

The Korean government had to reduce GHG emissions without

negative impact on economic growth. So the cost effective strategy

to reduce GHG emissions is important for sustainable green growth.

The purpose of this paper is to suggest the effective green growth

policy and measures to achieve the 2020 GHG emission target. This

paper analyzed the 19 sectors inculding 16 manufacturing industries.

��

The representative green growth policy and measures are command

and control system(Target Management System) and GHG Emission

Trading Scheme in Korea. The green growth policy and measures in

industrial sector are Energy Management System, Energy Audit,

��

Green Credit, and etcs,. Green measures for renewable energy are

financial aid, Green Home Program, and measures for energy

demand are tax aid, demand management of energy suppliers, etc,.

There are so many measures in industrial sectors, renewable energy

and demand management.

The past emissions(2004-2010) was decomposed using additive

LMDI(Logarithmatic Mean Divisia Index) method. The output effect

is the biggest positive effect on the increase of emissions among 5

effects, and the other 3 effects(energy intensity effect, energy mis

effect, emission factor effect) contributed to the increase of

emissions. However, the structure effect only contributed to the

decrease of emissions. The energy intensity effect should have

contributed to the reduction of emissions if the former governments’s

green growth policy was effective.

Also, the future emissions(2010-2020) was decomposed using

LMDI. The output effect will be the biggest effect on the increase of

GHG emissions, and the energy mix effect will contribute to the

increase of emissions. However, the energy intensity effect and

structure effect will be expected to contribute to the decrease of

emissions in 2010-2020. The main driver of reduction effect will be

the implementation of RPS.

The three scenarios as energy intensity scenario, energy mix

scenario and emission factor scenario are set to achieve 2020 GHG

emission target using the effects of LMDI method. The energy

��

Green Credit, and etcs,. Green measures for renewable energy are

financial aid, Green Home Program, and measures for energy

demand are tax aid, demand management of energy suppliers, etc,.

There are so many measures in industrial sectors, renewable energy

and demand management.

The past emissions(2004-2010) was decomposed using additive

LMDI(Logarithmatic Mean Divisia Index) method. The output effect

is the biggest positive effect on the increase of emissions among 5

effects, and the other 3 effects(energy intensity effect, energy mis

effect, emission factor effect) contributed to the increase of

emissions. However, the structure effect only contributed to the

decrease of emissions. The energy intensity effect should have

contributed to the reduction of emissions if the former governments’s

green growth policy was effective.

Also, the future emissions(2010-2020) was decomposed using

LMDI. The output effect will be the biggest effect on the increase of

GHG emissions, and the energy mix effect will contribute to the

increase of emissions. However, the energy intensity effect and

structure effect will be expected to contribute to the decrease of

emissions in 2010-2020. The main driver of reduction effect will be

the implementation of RPS.

The three scenarios as energy intensity scenario, energy mix

scenario and emission factor scenario are set to achieve 2020 GHG

emission target using the effects of LMDI method. The energy

��

intensity scenario includes 3 sub scenarios like output scenario,

energy intensity scenario and structure scenario. Each scenario also

estimate the mitigation cost to achieve 2020 target. All of the

scenarios achieve the 2020 target excluding energy mix scenario

because of the limited potential of fuel switch.

In case of output scenario, in which the output(value added) and

energy consumption of all sectors are supposed to be reduced at

same rate maintaining the energy/GDP intensity, all sectors can

achieve the 2020 target and the mitigation cost is estimated as

1,699,000won/CO2 , In case of energy intensity scenario, in which

the past speed of intensity improvement is assumed to be continued

until 2020, all sectors can achieve the 2020 target and the cost to

reduce emission is 303,000won/CO2 . The structure scenario, in

which the output(value added) of carbon intensive sectors(iron and

steel, petrochemical, cement) is assumed to be moved to low carbon

sectors(machinery, semiconductor, display, automobile, ship building),

does not cost to reduce emissions since no sacrifice of output was

assumed. The energy mix scenario, in which high carbon fossil

fuel(coal, oil) is assumed to be switched by low carbon fuel(natural

gas), can not achieve the 2020 target because of the limited fuel

switch availability, and the cost is 18,000won/CO2 . The emission

factor scenario, in which 16% of coal fired power plant is assumed

to be substituted by photovoltaic, can achieve the target, and the cost

to reduce emission is estimated to be 1,586,000won/CO2 .

��

This scenario result shows that the introduction of renewable

powers in power sector will be the long term policy options

considering the real world’s situation. Also, the policy options to

improve the energy intensity and to change the fuel mix to cleaner

mix are recommended for future policy. However, the policy options

to change the industrial structure and reduce the output in order to

achieve to 2020 target need high cost. As a result, the policy and

measures are to improve the energy intensity and the fuel mix, and

to introduce the renewable energies in electricity production in terms

of sustainable green growth. So the reinforcement of the current

sustainable green growth policy and measures is good for the

achievement of 2050 green growth goal.

��

The successful achievement of 2020 GHG emission reduction

target is the start of green growth goal in Korea. Korea can enter the

green developed country if Korean can reduce the GHG emission

without slowdown of economic growth.

The green power in electricity production through by introduction

of renewable power is the effecient option for green growth in

Korea. So the RPS should be reinforced for the green power, and

the electricity price should be changed to include the emission

reduction cost in consumer’s electricity price. The policy options should

be introduced to reduce the cost of energy intensity improvement

��

This scenario result shows that the introduction of renewable

powers in power sector will be the long term policy options

considering the real world’s situation. Also, the policy options to

improve the energy intensity and to change the fuel mix to cleaner

mix are recommended for future policy. However, the policy options

to change the industrial structure and reduce the output in order to

achieve to 2020 target need high cost. As a result, the policy and

measures are to improve the energy intensity and the fuel mix, and

to introduce the renewable energies in electricity production in terms

of sustainable green growth. So the reinforcement of the current

sustainable green growth policy and measures is good for the

achievement of 2050 green growth goal.

��

The successful achievement of 2020 GHG emission reduction

target is the start of green growth goal in Korea. Korea can enter the

green developed country if Korean can reduce the GHG emission

without slowdown of economic growth.

The green power in electricity production through by introduction

of renewable power is the effecient option for green growth in

Korea. So the RPS should be reinforced for the green power, and

the electricity price should be changed to include the emission

reduction cost in consumer’s electricity price. The policy options should

be introduced to reduce the cost of energy intensity improvement

��

strategy since it needs high cost. The policy and measures to

reinforce the energy mix improvement like technology development

policy instead of carbon tax is good for green growth. However, any

policy and measures to change the industrial structure and to reduce

the industrial output should be avoided since it will slowdown the

economic growth.

��

��

��

1. ················································································ 1

2. ···················································································· 2

3. ················································································ 3

��

1 ······································································ 5

1. ················································· 5

2. ········································································· 6

3. ································································ 8

2 ··········································· 12

1. 10 ································································· 12

2. ···································· 15

��

1 2010-2020 ····················· 19

1. ··········································· 19

2. 2010-2020 ·························· 20

3. 2010-2020 ······················ 21

2 ························ 23

1. 2010-2020 ······· 23

2. 2010-2020 ···· 26

��

��

1 ······································· 31

1. ·········································· 31

2. ······································ 33

3. ······································ 36

2 ······························································· 40

1. ············································· 40

2. (LMDI) ················································· 43

3 2004-2010 ····························· 46

1. 2 (2013 ) ·········································· 46

2. 2004-2010 ········································· 47

4 2010-2020 ················ 50

1. (BAU) ···· 50

2. (BAU) ···· 53

3. ········ 55

��

1 2020 ······································ 59

1. ················································· 59

2. ································ 64

2 ···· 65

1. ··································································· 65

2. ··················································· 71

3. ··································································· 77

��

��

1 ······································· 31

1. ·········································· 31

2. ······································ 33

3. ······································ 36

2 ······························································· 40

1. ············································· 40

2. (LMDI) ················································· 43

3 2004-2010 ····························· 46

1. 2 (2013 ) ·········································· 46

2. 2004-2010 ········································· 47

4 2010-2020 ················ 50

1. (BAU) ···· 50

2. (BAU) ···· 53

3. ········ 55

��

1 2020 ······································ 59

1. ················································· 59

2. ································ 64

2 ···· 65

1. ··································································· 65

2. ··················································· 71

3. ··································································· 77

��

3 ········· 86

1. ··············································· 86

2. ··························· 90

3. ········ 92

4. ································ 93

4 ············· 94

1. ·································· 94

2. ······························ 99

3. ·········· 101

4. ·································· 103

5 ···························· 103

��

1 ·································································· 107

2 ·········································································· 111

1. ········································· 111

2. ML ·························································· 116

3 ···································································· 121

1. ········································· 121

2. ······················································ 122

4 ··············································································· 125

1. ···· 125

2. ······························ 129

3. ················· 132

��

4. ················· 134

5. ,

···························································· 138

6. ··· 142

5 ···································································· 143

��

��

��

< 1> (LMDI) ···································· 165

< 2> (DEA) ···································· 171

��

4. ················· 134

5. ,

···························································· 138

6. ··· 142

5 ···································································· 143

��

��

��

< 1> (LMDI) ···································· 165

< 2> (DEA) ···································· 171

��

��

< 2-1> 2020 ·································· 9

< 2-2> ······························· 10

< 2-3> (2050 ) ······ 11

< 2-4> ·········································· 13

< 2-5> ···················· 16

< 3-1> ········································ 19

< 3-2> (BAU) ·············· 20

< 3-3> (BAU) ·················· 22

< 3-4> ··························· 24

< 3-5> ····························· 25

< 3-6> ································· 27

< 3-7> ································· 28

< 3-8> ·················· 30

< 4-1> 2020 , , ···· 32

< 4-2> 2020

········································································· 34

< 4-3> 2020 ····················· 37

< 4-4> 2010 2020 ·· 39

< 4-5> 2004-2010 ·························· 49

< 4-6> 2010-2020

······································································ 52

< 4-7> 2010-2020 ··· 54

��

< 5-1> ········································ 61

< 5-2> 2020 ················· 62

< 5-3> (2010-2020 , ) ············· 63

< 5-4> ········ 65

< 5-5> 2020 ·························· 66

< 5-6> ················································· 67

< 5-7> 2020 ················· 68

< 5-8> ···················· 70

< 5-9> ···················· 71

< 5-10> ············ 72

< 5-11> ······························· 73

< 5-12> 2020 ···· 74

< 5-13> ······· 76

< 5-14> ······· 77

< 5-15> 2010-2020

································································ 79

< 5-16> 2010-2020

(2005 ) ··················································· 80

< 5-17> ··················· 81

< 5-18> ········································ 82

< 5-19> 2020 ··········· 83

< 5-20> ·············· 85

< 5-21> ·············· 85

< 5-22> ······································ 86

< 5-23> ················ 88

��

< 5-1> ········································ 61

< 5-2> 2020 ················· 62

< 5-3> (2010-2020 , ) ············· 63

< 5-4> ········ 65

< 5-5> 2020 ·························· 66

< 5-6> ················································· 67

< 5-7> 2020 ················· 68

< 5-8> ···················· 70

< 5-9> ···················· 71

< 5-10> ············ 72

< 5-11> ······························· 73

< 5-12> 2020 ···· 74

< 5-13> ······· 76

< 5-14> ······· 77

< 5-15> 2010-2020

································································ 79

< 5-16> 2010-2020

(2005 ) ··················································· 80

< 5-17> ··················· 81

< 5-18> ········································ 82

< 5-19> 2020 ··········· 83

< 5-20> ·············· 85

< 5-21> ·············· 85

< 5-22> ······································ 86

< 5-23> ················ 88

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< 5-24> (2010 ) ··· 89

< 5-25> ·································· 89

< 5-26> 2020 ········ 91

< 5-27> ·········· 93

< 5-28> ·········· 94

< 5-29> ·· 95

< 5-30>

··········································································· 96

< 5-31> 4 2020

······························································ 97

< 5-32> ························································· 98

< 5-33> ······································ 99

< 5-34> 2020 100

< 5-35> ···· 102

< 5-36> ···· 103

< 5-37> - ·············· 105

< 6-1> (2010-2020) ······································ 122

< 6-2> ·········· 124

< 6-3>

············································································· 126

< 6-4> ························· 130

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< 6-7> ················ 140

< 6-8> ····························· 141

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[ 2-2] ················ 7

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[ 6-1] ······························· 113

[ 6-2] (ML) ······································· 116

[ 6-3] (EC) ··············································· 118

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687 543 521 -4.1%3,580 5,466 5,248 -4.0%1,961 1,728 1,659 -4.0%14,976 14,193 12,986 -8.5%13,013 18,591 17,178 -7.6%7,733 13,388 12,330 -7.9%5,735 13,518 12,450 -7.9%7,663 11,599 10,683 -7.9%9,126 13,185 12,157 -7.8%3,324 3,670 3,424 -6.7%6,991 6,846 6,504 -5.0%19,981 20,183 19,840 -1.7%288,123 362,591 338,164 -6.7%12,011 11,266 10,680 -5.2%1,165 1,034 994 -3.9%2,507 2,857 2,654 -7.1%

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7,733 12,330 4,598 4,598 - -

5,735 12,450 6,715 6,715 - -

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9,126 12,157 3,031 3,031 - -

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