Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability @ EcoLead. Itaru Yasui , Prof. Prof.Emeritus , U of Tokyo Former Vice Rector, United Nation University President, National Institute of Technology and Evaluation http://www.yasuienv.net/. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Global Sustainability and Local Sustainability@EcoLead Itaru Yasui, Prof.Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo Former Vice Rector, United Nation UniversityPresident, National Institute of Technology and Evaluationhttp://www.yasuienv.net/
1Bankruptcy of the Earth~Limit to Growth in 21st centuryPublished December in 2012To provide information to have an insightinto non-sustainable future of the EarthAuthorItaru YASUICoauthors, 8 researchers below,Seita Emori NIESHiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of TokyoAyako SonodaCre-en, PresidentKoumei Halada NIMSMiki BabaNikkei EcologyJunichi Fujino NIESYuuichi Moriguchi Univ. of Tokyo Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama
What is your evaluation in 21st Century? 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious, 2: Moderate for a while 1:ManagiableClimate Change/Extreme WhetherLoss of Biological DiversityDepletion of Metal ResourcesDepletion of Fossil FuelExplosion of Population/Food IssuesEnvironmental Pollution IssuesNot Enough Budget to Handle Issues3Chapter 1.Local Bankruptcy & Global Sustainability
Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2Coral Reef?
Guano in Nauru6Guanomanureis an effective fertilizer due to its high levels of phosphorus andnitrogenand its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru2 million tons every yearAmount decreased from 1989 100 million tons of guano minedHigh income & No income tax Free electricityFree medical care and free education feeNo cooking, always eat outside Laborers mainly from ChinaEconomy 100% dependence on exportStarted to Deplete from 2000Job less rate 90%No intention to work7
2012Drought in USA8
East Part of Kansas, USA910
West Part of Kansas, USACenter Pivot Irrigation11
Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA
Ogallala Aquifer, USAFossil Water Water from 2 to 6 million years ago Recharge Speed by rain Fe >Au >Al > NiTMR = Total Material RequirementOthersZnURhPtPdSnNiAlAuFeCu Weight of Mine Waste Accompanied by Mineral Extraction 27
DevelopedCountriesForests in DevelopingCountriesFrom MA=Millennium EcosystemAssessment (UN 2001~2005)~1950 1950~1990 ~2050Area ConvertedThis figure shows fraction of potential area converted in several categories of land.
28We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.UsedMidle EastOtherDeep Ocean300~1500mUltra Deep1500mIce SeaEORHeavyShaleOilPrice $/barrel Reserves vs. Cost for Oil ProductionReserves in Billion Barrel29
World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 1:Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100LowHighMedium2052 by Jorgen RandersMegachange: The world in 2050The EconomistOurs30
World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 2:Estimated and projected population by major area, medium variant , 1950-2100 (billions)AsiaAfricaNorth AmericaTo be Flat Follow the AsianTrend 50 yearsbehindProjected Population of Regions up to 2100
Inflection Point 31
Fertility Rate is important LatinAmericaAfricaAsiaOceaniaNorth AmericaEurope
Chapter 2.Local Sustainability under the influence ofClimate Change
32Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines33
World Economic ForumGlobal Risks 2013Eighth EditionSelect 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal, Geopolitical, Economic, Technologicaland Environmental10 risks from each fieldTotal 50 risks with a scope of 10 years from nowAn Important PointCognitive BiasesDifficult to OvercomeInevitable to overcome somehow3435
Likelihood 3 3.5 4 Impact4
IPCCAR5WGRelation between CO2 Emission vs. Temp. AnomalyCO238
Allowance of IPCCAR5WGIntegrated Assessment ModelBest Available ScenarioCO2 Emission from Fossil Fuelfor 2050 and 2100Target: Anomaly below 2.5 Delay of some Tipping ElementsIn order to this, with 9 B of populationIn 205010 GtC/yearGloballyPer capita emission 1.1 C/year/capitaIn 21004 GtC/year GloballyPer capita emission 0.25 C/year/capita
39cf. Currenly in Japan2.7 C/year/capita40Chapter 3. Local Risks
Agricultural Activities and Related Risks
Environmental Risks for AgricultureEnvironmental Conditions for AgricultureWater supplyTemperature ChangeEssential ElementsN, P, OthersStatus of SoilAgrichemicals such as Insecticide or HerbicideGenetically Modified Organisms Environmental Changes to be consideredChange accompanied by Climate ChangeLimitation of Natural ResourcesWater/Soil Change caused by Human ActivitiesFeelings of Consumers
Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100 From IPCC AR5 2013DRYIssues in LocationsLocation and Availability of WaterStream Flow will be affected by Climate ChangeGround Water has different CharacteristicsTurkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry.In Japan, not so much difference.Temperature will affect most of suitable agri. products. Special Products in the area will be affected.Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano?Grapes and Wineries in Europe already receive some changes. Germany will be the best place??
43In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier - High MountainsSnow or Ice in winter play role of ReservoirIn spring, water from snow melt used for agricultureClimate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean AreaAdaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture4445
Fragility is high in water supply in High MountainsImportant to keep less than 2 degree 22Fertilizer IssueNitrogen FertilizerHarbor-Bosch Process success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and HydrogenHuge Energy ConsumptionMore than 1% of Global Energy Consumption Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilizationPollutant to Underground WaterEutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake and River WaterIncrease N2O(one of GHG) emission from Patty Fields MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer4620 Michel & FAOSo called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha). French Wheat Michel & FAOPhosphorous Fertilizer P as PhosphateInevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids.Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growthP : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance.F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13 in the scale of natural abundance.
49PNatural Abundance of Elements, Top 17
Oxygen Silicon Aluminum Iron CalciumSodiumPotassiumMagnesium Titanium Hydrogen Phosphorus Manganese Fluorine Barium Carbon Strontium Sulfur
50Sustainability of SoilMaintenance and improvement of soil quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality.Asian Rainforest are old and poor in minerals whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich.Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components.
51Shortage in Food Supply? 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field More than 1-2m of Sea Level RiseLarge Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countriesResident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food SupplyDraught in Turkey, Spain, USA, AustraliaProduction of Wheat and other crops will decrease.Local Temperature ChangeChange in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in SupplyFields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move?
5222. Severe safety requirement by citizens/consumersGMO(genetically modified organisms) Issues for Soy, Corn etc.Is it Safe? Yes, safe if eaten.Any environmental adverse side effects? Any abrupt change in productivity of crop?As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have Zero Risk environment without any Agrichemicals.Yield may be go down.Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human, but is it safe for insects to help pollination?
53Adaptation with Skilled ForecastAverage Rain Fall = Slight IncreaseTemperature will go up to some extentAgricultural Suitability of certain place will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture. CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing effect
Area of farming land is about half of land suitable for agriculture. If enough farmers in the new agricultural land, global supply of food will be enough.
It is a good strategy to have long perspectivesof the global changeas possible as we can, if we try to prepare forunexpected changes of local situation.
55Theoretical GoalTo realize Steady State of the Earth in 2100.Three Conditions1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount naturally renewed.2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly using Renewable Energy. 3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth.56More Detailed Description by Herman Daily in 19711. Renewable Resources: Do not use renewable resources at higher speeds than the speed of regeneration.Good for : Fishery, Forestry,etc.
3. Wastes: Discard wastes Only at a speed less than the speed of reduction by the capacity of the Earth.Including Nuclear Spent Fuel 57Continued2. Non-Re