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Health Policy 101:Health Policy 101:Why America Wants NHIWhy America Wants NHI
Walter Tsou, MD, MPH Physicians for a National Health Program
Congressional Forum
April 24, 2007
Americans know more about Anna Americans know more about Anna Nichole Smith than about health careNichole Smith than about health care
Two Questions?Two Questions?
What is the health policy of the United States of America?
How much will the US spend this year for health care?
“Iron Triangle of Health Policy”“Iron Triangle of Health Policy”
Access to Care
Cost Containment Quality of Care
Looking at CostsLooking at Costs
Health Care Costs at $2.3 Tr in 2007 and almost Health Care Costs at $2.3 Tr in 2007 and almost doubles in 9 years. Total for Decade? $31 Trillion!!doubles in 9 years. Total for Decade? $31 Trillion!!
Source: Projected from Natl Health Expenditures, Health Affairs, Feb. 22, 2006
$2,262$2,421
$2,590$2,771
$2,966$3,171
$3,390$3,624
$3,874$4,137
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
2007 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 2016
National Health Expenditures (NHE) Share of Gross Domestic National Health Expenditures (NHE) Share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Private and Public Shares of NHEProduct (GDP) and Private and Public Shares of NHE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1965 1970 1980 1990 1993 2000 2003 2006 2009 2014
Sh
are
of N
HE
(p
erce
nt)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Sh
are
of G
DP
(p
erce
nt)
Source: Heffler, et al. 2005. U.S. Health Spending Projections For 2004-2014. Health Affairs, web-exclusive: w5-74 – w5-85.
Public
Private funds
Public funds
US spends far more than other countries US spends far more than other countries on health careon health care
$0$500
$1,000$1,500$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500
Turke
yM
exico
Pola
nd
Hungary
Kore
aC
zech
Spain
Gre
ece
Portu
gal
New
Findla
nd
Unite
dIre
land
Sw
eden
Japan
Italy
Austria
France
Belg
ium
Austra
liaIce
land
Denm
ark
Norw
ay
Neth
erla
nds
Luxe
mbourg
Canada
Germ
any
Sw
itzerla
nd
U.S
.
OECD, Health Expenditures per capita, 1998
Looking at QualityLooking at Quality
Americans get only 55% of Americans get only 55% of recommended quality indicatorsrecommended quality indicators
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Inte
rven
tion
Med
icat
ion
Imm
unizat
ion
Phys
Exa
m
Lab
or X
ray
Surg
ery
Histo
ry
Couns
elin
g
% p
erf
orm
ed
55%
McGlynn, E. A. et al. N Engl J Med 2003
Problems with the quality of careProblems with the quality of care
are indeed widespread and systemic are indeed widespread and systemic and require a system-wideand require a system-wide approachapproach
Institute of Medicine, 2003
Institute of Medicine, WSJ - June 15, 2006
Looking at AccessLooking at Access
46.6 MillionUninsured
Source: US Census, 2005
US Health Policy is a balance between US Health Policy is a balance between business and public interestsbusiness and public interests
Government
Business People
What Do Americans Want?What Do Americans Want?
NY Times, March 2, 2007
Does Business Want Universal Health Care?Does Business Want Universal Health Care?
Does Business Want Universal Health Care?Does Business Want Universal Health Care?
YES!!
Retiree Health Benefits!Retiree Health Benefits!
GM retiree cost is $60 Billion!GM retiree cost is $60 Billion!
Source: Wall St. Journal, March 11, 2004Source: Wall St. Journal, March 11, 2004
GM Lays Off 30,000GM Lays Off 30,000
Source: NY Times, Nov. 21, 2005NY Times, Nov 21, 2005
Ford Cuts 25,000 JobsFord Cuts 25,000 Jobs
Source: USA Today, Jan 2006USA Today, Jan 24, 2006
Chrysler is in trouble due to health careChrysler is in trouble due to health care
“Chrysler faces $21.1 billion in future retiree health care liabilities . . . and the majority of the obligation is not funded. The massive liability is one of the key hurdles DaimlerChrysler is seen facing as it tries to sell its US unit.”Wall St. Journal, Feb 26, 2007
Financial Accounting Standards Board Financial Accounting Standards Board Rule #158Rule #158
Employers Accounting for Defined Benefit Pension and Other Postretirement Plans
Requiring an employer to recognize the … status of a defined benefit postretirement plan as an asset or liability in its statement of financial position . . .
Starts Dec. 15, 2006
Standard and Poor 500 have $321 Billion Standard and Poor 500 have $321 Billion Health Care Liability!Health Care Liability!
Source: Wall St. Journal, June 6, 2006Source: Wall St. Journal, June 6, 2006
$1 Trillion Public Retiree Obligation$1 Trillion Public Retiree Obligation
Source: USA Today, May 18, 2006oday, May 18, 2006, Reuters June 13, 2006
Gov’t Sticker Shock-$600 Billion to $1.3 Gov’t Sticker Shock-$600 Billion to $1.3 TrillionTrillion
Source: WSJ, Nov. 9, 2006Wall St. Journal, Nov. 9, 2006
New estimate of $1.5 Trillion liability, New estimate of $1.5 Trillion liability, many states are over $10 billionmany states are over $10 billion
Credit Suisse, March 22, 2007
Only 100% Universal Health CareOnly 100% Universal Health Care
Discounts future health care costs Dramatically eliminates retiree health
liability on balance sheet
Health Care Hits Home . . .Health Care Hits Home . . .
Year Closed Hospital Beds Outcome
1994 Sacred Heart Hospital & Rehab. Ctr 234 Closed
1995 Community Hospital of Chester 179 Converted to Outpt Clinics
1995 Thomas Jefferson UH Ford Road 38 Converted to Outpt Clinics
1997 Allegheny Univ Hospitals, Mt Sinai 141 Closed
1997 Institute of Pennsylvania 91 Sold to become Kirkbride Center
1999 Germantown Hospital 88 Converted to Outpt Clinics
1999 Neumann Medical Center 133 Converted to Outpt Clinics
2000 John F. Kennedy Memorial Hospital 103 Converted to Outpt Clinics
2000 City Avenue Hospital 44 Closed
2002 Mercy Community Hospital 113 Converted to Outpt Clinics
2003 Parkview Hospital 149 Closed
2003 Elkins Park Hospital 114 Purchased by Einstein
Number of Beds removed from Inpatient Use(excl.s Elkins Park, some or all of whose bed capacity
will be used by Einstein/MossRehab)
1,222 25.3%
Bed Capacity Reduction At Hospitals Remaining open 3,615 74.7%
13 Phila. hospitals have closed from 13 Phila. hospitals have closed from 1994-20041994-2004
Source: Delaware Valley Healthcare Council
Phila Inquirer, Feb. 17, 2007
Despite a Full Hospital . . . .Despite a Full Hospital . . . .
Single Payer, National Health InsuranceSingle Payer, National Health Insurance
A National Health ProgramA National Health Program
Universal - covers everyone Comprehensive - all needed care, no co-pays Single, public payer No investor-owned HMOs, hospitals, etc. Improved health planning Public accountability for quality and cost, but
minimal bureaucracy
Simplified flow of fundsSimplified flow of funds
Medicare
Medicaid
VA Benefits
State and Local
Private Insurance
Patient fees
HEALTH
FUND
Physicians
Hospitals
Pharmacy
Laboratories
Radiology
Long Term Care
Public Private
Public financing, Private deliveryPublic financing, Private delivery
Physician Proposal in Physician Proposal in JAMAJAMA, Aug. 2003, Aug. 2003
www.physiciansproposal.org
Congress introduces Physician ProposalCongress introduces Physician Proposal
AngellHimmelstein
Conyers
House Judiciary Committee Room, Feb 4, 2003
US National Health Insurance ActUS National Health Insurance Act
5
67
89
10
1112
1314
15
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
1999
% o
f G
NP
CANADA
U.S.
HEALTH COSTS AS % OF GNP:HEALTH COSTS AS % OF GNP:U.S. & CANADA, 1960-1999U.S. & CANADA, 1960-1999
CANADA'S NHP ENACTED
NHP FULLY IMPLEMENTED
Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Inst. for Health Info., & NCHS/Commerce Dept
Economies of Scale Saves MoneyEconomies of Scale Saves Money
Savings Under Single Payer (2005)
178.2
50.5
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Administrative Savings Bulk Buying Savings
$ b
illi
on
s
Source: Lewin Group 2002 and Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research,
U.S. Public Spending Per Capita for HealthU.S. Public Spending Per Capita for Healthis Greater than Total Spending in Other Nationsis Greater than Total Spending in Other Nations
Note: Public includes benefit costs for govt. employees & tax subsidy for private insuranceSource: NEJM 1999; 340:109; Health Aff 2000; 19(3):150
$1,450
$1,780
$1,820
$2,120
$2,250
$2,400
$1,530$2,740
$0 $1,000 $2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000
U.K.
Japan
Sweden
France
Canada
Germany
U.S.
$ Per Capita
Total Spending U.S. Public U.S. Private
NHI will save $5000 per capita by 2024NHI will save $5000 per capita by 2024
Per Capita Health Expenditures
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Dolla
rs
current system single payerSource: Lewin Group 2002 and Dean Baker, Center
$12114 vs 10405
$8828 vs 8059
$16623 vs 13434
$21411 vs 16480
Independent analysis of single payer for Independent analysis of single payer for America would save a trillion dollars!America would save a trillion dollars!
National Coalition on Health Care, Aug 1, 2005
Government is the “swing” voteGovernment is the “swing” vote
Government
Business People
Rex Morgan, MD on NHIRex Morgan, MD on NHI
PHYSICIANS FOR A NATIONAL HEALTH PROGRAM
29 EAST MADISON STREETSUITE 602CHICAGO, IL 60602-4404TEL: (312) 554-0382
WWW.PNHP.ORG