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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Lider - Energetska budućnost Hrvatske, Zagreb, 29.5.2019
Hrvatska energetska tranzicija i izbjegavanje naslijeđenih troškova
Prof.dr.sc. Neven DuićHrvatska energetska tranzicija
Sveučilište u Zagrebu FSBSDEWES Centre
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Pariški sporazum
Što nam donosi Pariški sporazum koji je EU potpisala i ratificirala? Ograničenje povećanja temperature na 1.5 °C
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
EU klimatsko-energetska politika Smanjenje emisija za 20% do 2020 Smanjenje emisija za 40% do 2030, ali u
stvari ciljevi od 32% OIE i 32.5% EE postižu 45% smanjenja do 2030 –kompatibilno s 2 °C Potrebno smanjenje od 55-60% do 2030 –
kompatibilno s 1.5 °C, EP izglasali EU ETS cijena CO2 ≈ 25 EUR, kraj
ugljena do 2030
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
EU klimatsko-energetska politika Smanjenje emisija za 80% do 2050 –
kompatibilno s 2 °C Klimatsko neutralna EU do 2050 –
smanjenje od 95%– kompatibilno s 1.5 °C, prijedlog EK
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Lazard LCOE 2018
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Denmark17 – 44% South Australia18 – 40% Iowa17 – 37%Kansas17 – 36% Oklahoma17 – 32% S.Dakota17 – 30%Prince Edward Island17, Ireland18 – 28% N.Dakota17 – 37%Curaçao, Portugal – 25% Uruguay – 23%Germany18 – 21% C. Verde, Maine17, Spain – 20%Nicaragua – 19% Colorado17, Minn.17, UK18 – 18%Aruba – 16% ID17, NE17, TX17 – 15%EU18, NM17 – 14% C. Rica, Romania, VT17 – 13%Sweden18, NS17 – 12% Austria17, Lith.17, OR17 – 11%Netherlands17 – 10% Est.17, Greece18, Poland17 – 9%Morocco – 8% Belgium18, Brazil, Turkey – 7%Canada, Finland18, France18, Honduras, Italy18, Panama, US – 6% Australia17, Croatia, Jamaica, N. Zealand – 5%Bulgaria, China, Mexico, Tunisia, World – 4%Chile, India – 3%Dom. R, Hungary17, Latvia17, Macedonia17, Norway18 – 2%Czechia17, Egypt, Japan, Lux., South Africa, Ukraine – 1%
Wind share in electricity demand 2016/17/18
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Solar share in electricity demand 2016Honduras – 10%Italy – 9%Germany, Greece – 7%Cyprus, EU, Belgium, Bulgaria – 4%Australia17, Czech Rep., Japan, Romania, Spain, UK
– 3%Denmark, France, Slovakia, Slovenia – 2%World, Austria, China, Malta, Netherlands, Pakistan,
Portugal, South Africa, US – 1%Croatia, Hungary, India, Lux. – 0.5%
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING9
Baseload + 15% wind
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
How to solve renewables variability/intermittency problem?• More grid interconnection • Flexibilisation of thermal power plants• Wholesale markets coupling• Demand response and integration of power,
heating, cooling, transport and water systems – power-to-X
• Dedicated electricity storage
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Smoothing intermittency by geographical dispersion
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Cycling of thermal power plants
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Electricity production in Germany in week 18 2016
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
20th century energy systems: supply follows demand21st century energy systems:
demand follows supply -> smart energy systems
Demand response – power-to-X
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Thermal energy storage
• Seasonal pit thermal storage• Discounted to represent hourly cost of storing heat in PTES
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Skagen CHP plant – power-to-heat
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Transport electrification has startedGlobal light vehiclessales in 2018• 2 mln EV • 95.5 mln total• 2.1% global
sales• 65% EV sales
growth• 1.1% cars sales
growth
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Electromobility Only personal cars and short distance utility
vehicles, 2 mln PHEV and BEV sold in 2018 If RESe 80% reduction of primary energy Fast charging 70 kW – huge problem if left
uncontrolled, ex AT, 4 mln cars arrives home, plugs in – 280 GW (14 GW installed cap)
Smart charging – market based, smoothing the demand
Demand response – power-to-transport
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Smart charging
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
CEE
P
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Veleprodajna i maloprodajna cijena plina
https://www.acer.europa.eu/Official_documents/Acts_of_the_Agency/Publication/ACER%20Market%20Monitoring%20Report%202017%20‐%20Gas%20Wholesale%20Markets%20Volume.pdf
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics‐explained/index.php/Natural_gas_price_statistics#Natural_gas_prices_for_household_consumers
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Natural gas wholesale-to-retail spread
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Kako izbjeći naslijeđene troškove? 2050 – nema fosilnih goriva Plinski bojleri i automobili na MUI traju do
20 godina Dakle treba ih prestati prodavati najkasnije
2030, a po mogućnosti i ranije NL je zabranila prodaju plinskih bojlera od
2018, UK od 2025 NO zabranjuje prodaju MUI auta od 2025,
niz zemalja od 2030
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Kako izbjeći naslijeđene troškove? A što s infrastrukturom? Moramo je održavati dok koristimo fosilne
energente Ako je potrebno graditi nove kapacitete
zbog sigurnosti dobave, onda će ih možda trebati ubrzano amortizirati
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY, POWER AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING
Vjetar i solar dolaze, ali ih je teško integrirati
Integracija elektroenergetskog, grijanja, hlađenja, vode, prometa potrebna (digitalizacija) – power-to-X
Treba planirati exit strategiju za fosilna goriva na vrijeme, da se izbjegnu naslijeđeni troškovi
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