iajNdúl jdhqj - Y%S ,xldfõ kj n,Yla;s iïm;...2015/10/05 · i iajNdúl jdhqj - Y%S ,xldfõ kj n,Yla;s iïm; 1 jk wjêh - iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdack m%drïNl ie,eiau fldaÜfÜ" we;=,a

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iajNdúl jdhqj - Y%S ,xldfõ kj n,Yla;s iïm;

1 jk wjêh - iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdack m%drïNl ie,eiau

fldaÜfÜ" we;=,a fldaÜfÜ" úl%uisxy fmfoi" 980$4A" msysá

Y%S ,xld ldnka wruqo, (SLCF) ^mqoa'& iud.u

u.ska

fld<U 00100" ckdêm;s udj;" fkd' 69" fi,skaflda yjqia" 6 jk uyf, msysá

Lksc f;,a iïm;a ixj¾Ok f,alï ld¾hd,h (PRDS)

fj; Ndrÿka

Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq l¾udka;hla ixj¾Okh lsÍu Wfoid l%fudamdhhla oelafjkixlafIam jd¾;djls'

SLCFys lKavdhï idudðlhska(

wdpd¾h î'tï'tia' ngf.dv bkaðfkare mS'Ô' fcdaima

jd¾;dfõ l¾;D(

wdpd¾h ckl r;akisß WmfoaYl

2014 Tlaf;daïn¾ 15

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ia;+;sh ( Lkscf;,a iïm;a ixj¾Ok f,alï ld¾h,fha lKavdhug - id,sh úl%uiQßh uy;d" m%Sks ú;dkf.a uy;añh" iy oñ;a fiakdër uhd" iy Y%S ,xld ldnka wruqo, ^mqoa'& iud.fuys" lKavdhug - wdpd¾h iqf¾ka ngf.dv iy bkaðfkare mS'cS' fcdaima" fuu jd¾;dj ilialsÍfï§ ,nd ÿka iyfhda.h iòyd l;=jrhd ;u lD;{;d mQ¾jl ia;+;sh msßkuhs'

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m%f,aLk wkque;sh

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mgqk

m%f,aLk wkque;sh..........................................................................................................................iii

mgqk................................................................................................................................................iv

rEm ,ehsia;=j.................................................................................................................................vii

j.= ,ehsia;=j....................................................................................................................................x

rduq ,ehsia;=j..................................................................................................................................xi

ixfla; kdu ,ehsia;=j..................................................................................................................xii

ridhksl ixfhda. ,ehsia;=j.........................................................................................................xiv

ñKqï tall.....................................................................................................................................xv

mßj¾;k idOl..............................................................................................................................xv

fmrjok.........................................................................................................................................xvi

úOdhl idrdxYh...........................................................................................................................xvii

1' ye`Èkaùu.......................................................................................................................................1

1'1 Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq.....................................................................................................1

1'2 wOHhkh u.ska isÿúh hq;= ld¾hNdrh.................................................................................1

1'3 wOHhkfha ixCIsma;h..........................................................................................................2

2' Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq l<ukdlrKh...................................................................................4

2'1 iajNdúl jdhqj, ,CIK iuyrla........................................................................................4

2'2 iajNdúl jdhqj, m%fhdack...................................................................................................6

2'3 iajNdúl jdhq m%jdykh........................................................................................................7

2'4 Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq iq,n;djh.................................................................................11

2'5 iajNdúl jdhq øj njg m;a lsÍu........................................................................................11

2'6 wdrCIl mshjrj,a ...............................................................................................................12

3' Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s iemhqu.......................................................................................................14

3'1 iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iemhqu…......................................................................................14

3'2 ffcjialkaO iemhqu…......................................................................................................16

3'3 Lksc f;,a iemhqu….........................................................................................................17

3'4 .,a w`.=re oykh.................................................................................................................18

3'5 c,úÿ,s n,hW;amdokh......................................................................................................19

3'6 iïm%odhl fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;siïm;a ..............................................................20

4' Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s b,aü........................................................................................................22

4'1 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh....................................................................................................22

4'2 lDIsld¾ñl wxYh...............................................................................................................23

4'3 ld¾ñl wxYh......................................................................................................................24

4'4 m%jdyk wxYh......................................................................................................................25

4'5 n,Yla;s ^úÿ,sh&wxYh......................................................................................................27

4'6 úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh iy cd;sl ixj¾Okh.......................................................................31

4'7 iuia; fmdis, bkaOk b,aü...........................................................................................33

4'8 l¾udka; wuq øjHhla f,i iajNdúl jdhq iòyd we;s b,aü..........................................34

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5' wkd.; wfmaCIdjka...................................................................................................................36

5'1 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh...................................................................................................36

5'2 ld¾ñl wxYh.....................................................................................................................37

5'3 m%jdyk wxYh.....................................................................................................................37

5'4 n,Yla;s wxYh....................................................................................................................38

5'5 ishü bkaOk mßfNdack wxYj, wfmaCIdj.....................................................................45

5'6 iajNdúl jdhq mokï fldg.;a l¾udka;j, wfmaCIdj....................................................46

6' n,Yla;s W;amdokh iy mdßißl ydhkh................................................................................48

6'1 f;,a oykh ùfuka isÿjk úfudapkhka...........................................................................48

6'2 .,a w`.=re oykh ùfuka isÿjk úfudapkhka...................................................................49

6'3 ;dm n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapkhka...............................................................50

6'4 cd;sl úfudapk m%ñ;Ska ......................................................................................................52

6'5 jdhqf.da,Sh .=Kd;aul nfjys m%ñ;Ska .................................................................................54

6'6 udkj fi!LHh flfrys úfudapkj, n,mEu...................................................................55

7' n,Yla;s W;amdokfha§ ndysr msßjeh…………..........................................................................59

7'1 ndysr msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu..............................................................................................59

7'2 ndysr n,mEï ms<snò iuyr wOHhkj,ska fidhd.;a f;dr;=re........................................61

7'3 Y%S ,xldfõ isÿ lrk ,o wOHhk.......................................................................................62

7'4 Y%S ,xldj iòyd hqfrdamSh ydkslrk idOl fhdod .ekSu..................................................64

8' iajNdúl jdhq mrsfNdackhg y`ÿkajdoSu.....................................................................................67

8'1 iajNdúl jdhq y`ÿkajd§fuka miq we;sjk b,a¨ï wjia:djka..............................................67

8'2 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh....................................................................................................67

8'3 l¾udka; wxYh...................................................................................................................68

8'4 iajNdúl jdhq wuq øjH f,i .efkk l¾udka; ................................................................70

8'5 m%jdyk wxYh......................................................................................................................75

8'6 n,Yla;s wxYh....................................................................................................................77

8'7 ishüwxY iòyd iajNdúl jdhq m%CIsma; b,aü ................................................................86

8'8 iajNdúl jdhq fnodyeÍu....................................................................................................88

9' iajNdúl jdhq Ndú; lsÍfï m%;s,dN..........................................................................................91

9'1 n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh........................................................................................................91

9'2 ksfrda.su;a cúS;hla Wfoid msßisÿ jd;h...........................................................................92

9'3 fi!LH wjodku wvq lsÍug wdrCIs; c,h........................................................................96

9'4 ixpdrl l¾udka;hg Wmldr flfrk fkdls,sá mßirh................................................97

9'5 wvq msßjeh n,Yla;s m%Nj iu. ld¾ñl j¾Okh kexùu.................................................97

9'6 wdydr iqrCIs;d;jh iy;sl lsÍu......................................................................................98

9'7 OQ,l f,day iy úlsrKYS,s øjHj,ska f;dr rgla.............................................................98

9'8 cd;sl wd¾Ólh jeä ÈhqKq lsÍu.........................................................................................99

9'9 /lshd wjia:d by< kexùu..............................................................................................100

9'10 cd;Hka;r iïuq;sj, j.lSï bgqlsÍu............................................................................100

vi

10' iajNdúl jdhq wmkhk yelshdjka.........................................................................................104

10'1 wdishdfõ jdhq ksIamdokh.................................................................................................104

10'2 wdishdfõ jdhq iemhqu iy b,aü....................................................................................105

10'3 wdishdfõ jdhq flaJøhla ixj¾Okh lsÍu........................................................................107

10'4 iajNdúl jdhq wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍu........................108

10'5 LNG bkaOk .nvd myiqlï iïmdokh lsÍu ................................................................110

11' iajNdúl jdhq iòyd úl,am m%Nj...........................................................................................112

11'1 LNG wdkhkh iòyd fmros .;a m%hka;.........................................................................112

11'2 LNG wdkhkh iòyd m¾hka;........................................................................................112

11'3 LNG m¾hka;boslsrSu iòyd ia:dk................................................................................113

12' m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a iy l%shdldÍ ie,eiau.........................................................................115

12'1 m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a .......................................................................................................115

12'2 l%shdldÍ ie,eiau..............................................................................................................116

12'3 ie,iqu l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd ld,rduqj.........................................................................118

13' ks.ukh iy ks¾foaY..............................................................................................................119

13'1 m%Odk fidhd .ekSï..........................................................................................................119

13'2 ks¾foaY..............................................................................................................................121 weuqKqu w

iudc wd¾Ól isÿùï fm<............................................................................................................123

w1 N+ñh.................................................................................................................................123

w2 iduqøsl c,h.....................................................................................................................124

w3 rfÜ c,ud¾...................................................................................................................126

w4 wd¾Ólh............................................................................................................................127

w5 orsø;d uÜgu.....................................................................................................................130

w6 ck úldYkh....................................................................................................................132

w7 foaY.=Kh..........................................................................................................................136 weuqKqu wd

úIh fCIa;%hiy wOHhkfha fldkafoais …...........................................................................138

uQ,dY%hka .......................................................................................................................................140

vii

rEm ,ehsia;=j

1 rEmh ( 2012 § m%Odk n,Yla;s m%Njhkays f.da,Sh iemhqu.........................................................6

2 rEmh ( 2012 j¾Ifha§ úÿ,sh W;amdokh lrk n,Yla;s m%Njj, f.da,Sh iemhqu....................7

3 rEmh ( id.r Tiafia LNG m%jdykh lrkq ,nk jdylhka......................................................9

4 rEmh (LNG flá ÿrlg m%jdykh lsÍug fhdod .kakd lkafÜkrhla..................................9

5 rEmh ( fnod yeÍug fmr LNG.nvd lr ;sfnk wkaou…………………………….............9

6 rEmh ( LNGm%jdykh iòyd fhdod .kq ,nk g%la r:hla.......................................................9

7 rEmh ( 2010-2012 ld,h ;=< iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iïmdokfhys idudkH w.hka..............15

8 rEmh ( 2003-2012 ld,h ;=< iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iïmdokh.............................................16

9 rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< ffcjialkaO mßfNdackh..........................................................17

10rEmh ( 2012 j¾Ih ;=< wdkhkh lrk ,o fmdis, bkaOk...................................................18

11 rEmh (.Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYfhys fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh...........................................22

12 rEmh (lDIsl¾uh u.ska ^ksh; ñ,&GDP fj; odhl;ajh....................................................23

13 rEmh (lDIsld¾ñl lghq;=j,§ bkaOk mßfNdackh...............................................................24

14 rEmh (úúO ld¾ñl Wm wxYj,ska GDP fj; odhl;ajh......................................................25

15 rEmh (l¾udka; wYfhys fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh...........................................................25

16 rEmh (2003-2012 ld,h ;=< .efid,Skaj,ska Èfjk jdykj, j¾Okh.................................26

17 rEmh (2003-2012 ld,h ;=< ãi,aj,ska Èfjk jdykj, j¾Okh.........................................26

18 rEmh (2002-2012 ld,h ;=< .efid,Ska iy ãi,aj, jd¾Isl mßfNdackh...........................27

19 rEmh (2001-2012 ld,h ;=< m%jdykh iòyd bkaOk mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh......................27

20 rEmh (2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úÿ,sn,d.dr ia:dms; Odß;djfhys j¾Okh...............................29

21 rEmh (2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úúO m%Njj,ska W;amdokh jQ n,Yla;sfha j¾Okh...................29

22 rEmh (úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh iòyd bkaOk mßfNdackh 2001-2012.........................................30

23 rEmh (úúO wxYj, úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh 2012........................................................................30

24 rEmh (2001-2013 ld,h ;=< tal mqoa., úÿ,sh mrsfNdackfha j¾Okh....................................31

25 rEmh (wdishdfõ tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackfhys jHdma;sh - 2011......................................32

26 rEmh ( wdishdfõ tal mqoa., .Dyia: úÿ,sn, mßfNdackfhys jHdma;sh- 2011.........................32

27 rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úúO wxYj, fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh...............................33

28 rEmh (úúO wxY w;r fmdis, bkaOk b,aü……………....................................................34

29 rEmh (HH&C wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh……………………........36

30 rEmh (ld¾ñl wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh.......................................38

31 rEmh (m%jdyk wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh.......................................39

32 rEmh (2013-2040 ld,h ;=< b,a¨fuys m%laIsma; j¾Okh.....................................................40

33 rEmh (2013-2040 ld,h ;=< W;amdokfhys m%laIsma;j¾Okh…...............................................40

34 rEmh (2013-2040 ld,h ;=< ia:dms; Odß;djfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh......................................41

35 rEmh (Y%S ,xldfõ m%laIsma; tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh……….......................................42

36 rEmh (n,Yla;s wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh.....................................44

37 rEmh (iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;an,Yla;sh iòydmßfNdackh jQ bkaOkj, m%CIsma; msrsjeh........45

38 rEmh (úúO wxYj, fmdis, bkaOk m%CIsma; mßfNdackh.......................................................46

39 rEmh (lekvdfõ .,a w`.=re n,d.drlska ksl=;a flfrk úfudapk ÿïf.dgq.........................47

40 rEmh (USAys fglaidiaj, .,a w`.=re n,d.drhl .,a w`.=re f.dvj,a iy úfudapk............47

41 rEmh (3700MW .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska isÿjk jd¾Isl OQ,l nerf,day úfudapkhka........51

viii

42 rEmh (wjlrK msßjeh iy ydksfhys msßjeh w;r iïnkaO;djh.........................................60

43 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh..............68

44 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh.............69

45 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh.............70

46 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh.............70

47 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol l¾udka;j, m%CIsma;jdhq b,aü.................74

48 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol l¾udka;j, m%CIsma;jdhq b,aü.................76

49 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh .............78

50 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh .............78

51 rEmh (2004-2011 ld,h ;=< ffoksl mrsfNdack jl%j, jd¾Isl idudkH...............................81

52 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh ............84

53 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh ............84

54 rEmh (b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh...............84

55 rEmh (b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk msßjeh........................85

56 rEmh (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; jdhq b,aü............85

57 rEmh ( úúO bkaOkj,ska úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys iulrk ,o msßjeh....................................86

58 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ishü wxY iòyd jdhq m%CIsma; b,aü........................86

59 rEmh (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ishü wxY iòyd jdhq m%CIsma; b,a u…………........87

60 rEmh (fhdað; jdhq fnod yeÍfï cd,h..................................................................................90

61 rEmh (iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; SO2 úfudapkh...................93

62 rEmh (iqmqreÿ b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh..................93

63 rEmh (iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; TSP úfudapkh..................93

64 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; SO2 úfudapkh.....................94

65 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh....................94

66 rEmh (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; TSPúfudapkh......................94

67 rEmh (úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish`Mu wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh.................95

68 rEmh (úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish`Mu wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh.................96

69 rEmh (úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish`Mu wxY iòyd m%CIsma; TSP úfudapkh.................96

70 rEmh (úúO b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish`Mu wxY iòyd m%CIsma; CO2 úfudapkh...............102

71 rEmh (OECD iy OECD - fkdjk rgj, m%CIsma; jdhq fj<òdu.....................................106

72 rEmh (2040 olajd OECD - fkdjk rgj, m%CIsma; jdhq mßfNdackh..............................106

73 rEmh (;%sl=Kdu, jrdfhys øùlrK moaO;sfha fhdacs; msysgqu.............................................109

74 rEmh (yïnkaf;dg jrdfha o¾Ykhla...................................................................................113

75 rEmh (l%shdldÍ ie,eiau l%shdjg kexùu iòyd fhdað; ld,rduqj......................................118

w1 rEmh (Y%S ,xldfõ N+ñ úIu;d is;shu....................................................................................124

w2 rEmh (Y%S ,xldfõ iduqøsl iSudjka .........................................................................................125

w3 rEmh (Y%S ,xldj ysñlï m%ldY lrk ,o mq`M,aEEZ .............................................................126

w4 rEmh (yhsfv%dldnka ksê yuq jQ m%foaYh................................................................................126

w5 rEmh (2008-2013 ld,h ;=< Y%S ,xldfõ GDPys j¾Okh......................................................128

w6 rEmh (2005-2013 ld,h ;=< ^ksh; ñ,&GDP j¾Ok fõ.fhys úp,kh............................128

w7 rEmh (2008-2013 ld,h ;=<GDP ^j¾;udk& fj; wdxYsl odhl;ajh.................................129

w8 rEmh (2008-2013 ld,h ;=< tal mqoa., GDP ^j¾;udk& j¾Okh........................................129

w9 rEmh (2017 olajd m%laIsma;GDPys ^j¾;udk& j¾Okh.........................................................130

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w10 rEmh (wdishdfõ tal mqoa., GDP ^j¾;udk ñ,& jHdma;sh 2011…………..................,,...130

w11 rEmh (1901-2012 ld,h ;=< ck.yk j¾Okh .............................................................,,....132

w12 rEmh (1991-2013 ld,h ;=< uOH jd¾Isl ck.yk j¾Okh........................................,,....133

w13 rEmh (Èia;%slal w;r ck.yk >k;aj ^2012& jHdma;sh................................................,,....133

w14 rEmh ( fhdacs; kd.rsl iy ld¾ñl l,dm…………………...........................................,,..134

w15 rEmh (2011-12 ld,h ;=< wdishdkq rgj, ck.yk m%CIsma;.........................................,....135

w16 rEmh ( isÿúh yels wjia:dj ;=k ^03& hgf;a 2011 olajd ck.yk m%CIsma;.........................135

w17 rEmh (1961-2000 ld,h ;=< jd¾Isl idudkH j¾Idm;kh.................................................136

w18 rEmh (1961-2000 ld,h ;=< jd¾Isl idudkH uOHkh WIaK;ajh.....................................136

x

j.= ,ehsia;=j

1 j.=j (by< ksIamdok rgj,a 10ys iajNdúl jdhQkays ;dm ckl w.hka...................................5

2 j.=j (fmdis, bkaOkj, Y=oaO ;dmckl w.hhka iy ldnka wka;¾.;h.............................6

3 j.=j (vhsó;hs,a B;¾j, ^DME& uQ,sl ,CIK .......................................................................12

4 j.=j (nyq,j Ndú; flfrk bkaOkj, Y=oaO ;dmckl w.hhka…………………............15

5 j.=j (m%laIsma; bkaOk-oej iq,n;djh...................................................................................17

6 j.=j (2012§ foaYShj msßmyÿ l< iy wdkhkh l< Lksc f;,a ksIamdok...........................18

7 j.=j (wdrïN lrk ,o iy wdrïN lsÍug kshñ; NCRE jHdmD;s.......................................21

8 j.=j (wdydr msiSfï§ iy wdf,dalkfha§ bkaOk Ndú;fhys rgdj2012$13............................23

9 j.=j (mj;sk ;dm n,d.dr iy úY%du .ekaùfï ie,eiau......................................................28

10 j.=j (HH&C iy ld¾ñl wxYj, m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh...........................................37

11 j.=j (NCRE n,d.drj,ska m%CIsma; W;amdokh......................................................................43

12 j.=j (m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxYj, m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh.........................................44

13 j.=j (2013-2040 ld,h ;=< m%CIssma; bkaOk mßfNdackh iy tys NG iul........................46

14 j.=j (ia-jdhq mdol ksIamdokj, m%CIsma; jd¾Isl mßfNdackh..............................................47

15 j.=j (hqfrdamSh rgj, ;dm n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapk uÜgï..........................52

16 j.=j (Y%S ,xldfõ ;dm n,d.dr iòyd n,mdkq,nk úfudapk m%ñ;Ska..................................52

17 j.=j (ner f,dayj, m%ñ;Ska iy ksrSlaIs; úfudapk...............................................................53

18 j.=j (Y%%S ,xldfõ jdhq f.da,Sh .=Kd;aul ;;aj m%ñ;Ska.........................................................54

19 j.=j (jdhQ ¥Il lrK fldgf.k we;sjk fi!LHuh wndO.................................................56

20 j.=j (;dm n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk iòyd ydkslr idOl ..................................62

21 j.=j (USAys W;amdokh iòyd iy ndysr n,mEï iòyd jQ msßjeh.......................................62

22 j.=j (;dm n,d.dr ksid isÿ flfrk ndysr msßjeh..............................................................66

23 j.=j (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys jdhq iòyd b,aü…................66

24 j.=j (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhysjdhq iòyd b,aü..................71

25 j.=j (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol ld¾udka;j, jdhqiòyd b,aü....................73

26 j.=j (NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol ld¾udka;j, jdhq iòyd b,aü...................74

27 j.=j (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhys jdhq iòyd b,aü................77

28 j.=j (úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhysiulrk ,o msßjeh .Kkh lsÍu...........................................80

29 j.=j (NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a fhdað; n,d.dr ia:dms; lsÍu ........................................82

30 j.=j (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys jdhq iòyd b,aü…............83

31 j.=j (NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a ishü wxYhkays jdhq iòyd b,aü...................87

32 j.=j (¥Il úfudapkh .Kkh lsÍfï§ Ndú; flfrk úfudapk idOl..............................92

33 j.=j (b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a CO2" SO2" NO2 iy TSP úfudapk ....................................95

34 j.=j (2012 iy 2013 ld,h ;=< cd;sl wmkhk-wdkhk fYaIh...........................................99

35 j.=j (CH4 iy N2O iòyd úfudapk idOl iy GWP w.hhka..........................................102

36 j.=j (wdishdfõ iy IOR rgj, jdhq ixÑ; iy ksIamdokh..............................................104

37 j.=j (Y%S ,xldj ;=<NG y`ÿkajd§u iòyd jk fhdað; l%shdldÍ ie,eiau............................116

w1j.=j (Y%S ,xldfõ iduqøsl c,h..............................................................................................124

w2 j.=j (úúO wxYj, udisl uOHkH .Dyia: wdodhu ^2012&...................................................131

w3 j.=j (úúO wxYj, udisl uOHkH .Dyia: úhou ^2012&.....................................................131

w4 j.=j (úúO wxYj, orsø;d YS¾I ixLHdj..............................................................................132

xi

rduq ,ehsia;=j

rduqj 1 ( n,Yla;s iïmdokfhys,d Ndú; jk fmdÿ tall..........................................................14

rduqj 2 ( iïm%odhl fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s m%Nj............................................................21

rduqj 3 ( bkaOk fldaI iòyd yhsv%cka m%Njhla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj......................................37

rduqj 4 ( ¥Il úfudapk uÜgï m%ldY lsÍu iòyd tall.............................................................53

rduqj 5 ( n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska ¥Il we;sùu..............................................................................57

rduqj 6 ( .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska mßißl ydks msßjeh................................................65

rduqj 7 ( foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò UN rduq iïuq;sh.................................................................101

rduqj 8 ( riÈh ¥IKh u.ska we;s flreKq ñkudgd frda.h.....................................................103

xii

ixfla; kdu ,ehsia;=j

AAQ jdhqf.da,Sh jdhq .=Kd;aul nj

ADB wdishdkq ixj¾Ok nexl=j

AMS wefudakshï i,af*aÜ

BAU iqmqreÿ ld¾hh

GNI o< cd;sl wdodhu

CB uy nexl=j

CCGT ixhqla; pl% jdhQ g¾nhsk

CCHP ixhqla; YS;k" ;dm iy n,Yla;sh

CEA uOHu mßir wêldßh

CHP ixhqla; ;dmh iy n,Yla;sh

CI iïmSä; Êj,kh

CNG iïmSä; iajNdúl jdhqj

CPP .,a w`.=re n,d.drh

CST uOHu .nvd m¾hka;h

DME vhsó;hs,a B;¾

DR jÜgï wkqmd;slh

EEZ iaffjrS wd¾Ól l,dmh

EIA mßißl n,mEï ;lafiarej

EL wd¾Ól wdhqI

EP kef.kysr m<d;

EPA mßir wdrCIK ksfhdað;dh;kh

ESCAP wdishdkq iy Ydka;slr wd¾Ól yd iudchSh fldñIu

ESD n,Yla;s fiajd úi¾ckh

FDI úfoaYSh iDcq wdfhdackh

FEVI ;;amr 1l§ n,h fh¥ m%Yajdiuh mßudj

PGD ÿïjdk jdhQ f.kaoïyrKh

GCV o< ;dmckl w.h

GDP o< foaYSh ksIamdokh

GEF f.da,Sh mdßißl myiqlu

GNP o< cd;sl ksIamdokh

HC yhsfv%dldnk

HD udkj ixj¾Okh

HDI udkj ixj¾Ok o¾Ylh

HIES .Dyia: wdodhï iy úhoï ióCIKh

IC wNHka;r oykh

IEA cd;Hka;r n,Yla;s ksfhdað;dh;kh

IOR bkaÈhdkq id.r j<,a,

IPCC foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò wka;¾ rdcH uKav,h

ITCZ wka;¾-ksj¾;k wNsirK l,dmh

LECO ,xld úÿ,sn, iud.u

LFT f.dvìï m¾hka;h

xiii

LKR ,xld remsh,a

LNG øùlrKh l< iajNdúl jdhqj

LPG øùlrKh l< fmfg%da,shï jdhqj

LTGE È.=ld,Sk úÿ,sn, ksIamdok úldYkh

MCM riÈh ms<snò ñkudgd iïuq;sh

MR mqrjr m%foaYh

MUSD US fvd,¾ ñ,shkh

NCP W;=re ueo m<d;

NCRE iïm%odhl- fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh

NCV Y=oaO ;dmckl w.h

NE Bidkos.

NG iajNdúl jdhqj

NPP cd;sl fN!;sl ie,iqu

NWP jhU m<d;

OECD wd¾Ól iyfhda.s;d iy ixj¾Ok ixúOdkh

OPL ks< oßø;d f¾Ldj

PAH nyqpl%Sh jdIamYS, yhsfv%dldnk

PAN fmfrdlais weisghs,a khsfÜ%Ü

PF n,Yla;s idOlh

PHC È<s`ÿ mqoa., .Kka .ekSu

PM10 uhsfl%dak 10g wvq úIalïNhla iys; wxY=uh øjH

PM2'5 uhsfl%dak wvq úIalïNhla iys; wxY=uh øjH

PRDS Lksc f;,a iïm;a ixj¾Ok f,alï ld¾hd,h

PV m%ldY fjda,aàh

RERED .%dóh wd¾Ól ixj¾Okh iòyd mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh

SD ixLHdk úoHd;aul ix.%yh

SEA iqks;H n, wêldßh

SI mq<s`.= Êj,k

SLAAS Y%S ,xld úoHdNsj¾Ok ix.uh

SLSEA Y%S ,xld iqks;Hn, wêldßh

SPM wj,ïNs; wxY=uh øjH

ST yqud, g¾nhsk

SW ksß;os.

TPES iuia: m%Odk n,Yla;s iïmdokh

TSP iuia; wj,ïNs; wxY=uh øjH

UNCLOS uqyqÿ kS;sh ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a iïuq;sh

UNCTAD tlai;a cd;Skaf.a fj<ò iy ixj¾Ok iïfï,kh

UNDP tlai;a cd;Skaf.a ixj¾Ok jevigyk

UNFCCC tlai;a cd;Skaf.a foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò iïuq;sh

USA weußld tlai;a ckmoh

USD tlai;a ckmo fvd,rh

VOC jdIamYS,S ldnksl ixfhda.

WB f,dal nexl=j

xiv

ridhksl ixfhda. ,ehsia;=j

Al2O3 we¨ñkshï Tlaihsâ ^we¨ñkd&

As wdiksla

C ldnka

Cd leâñhï

CH3OCH3 vhsó;hs,a B;¾

CH2OH fu;fkda,a ^fu;s,a yhsfv%dlaihsâ&

CH4 óf;aka

CH4N2O hQßhd

Cr fl%dañhï

CO2 ldnkavfhdlaihsâ

Fe2 O3 f*ßla ^whka& Tlaihsâ

H2 yhsv%cka

Pb Bhï

Hg riÈh

HNO2 khsg%ia wï,h

HNO3 khsá%la wï,h

H2SO3 i,a*shqria wï,h

H2SO4 i,a*shqßla wï,h

N2O khsg%ia Tlaihsâ

N2O5 vhskhsg%cka fmkafgdlaihsâ

Ni ksl,a

NH3 wefudakshd

^NH4&2 SO4 wefudakshï i,af*aÜ

NO2 khsg%cka vfhdlaihsâ

N2O3 vhskhsg%cka g%fhdlaihsâ

NOx khsg%cka Tlaihsv

O2 Tlaiscka

O3 ´fidaka

SiO2 is,slka vfhdlaihsâ îs,sld&

SO2 i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ

TiO2 ghsfÜkshï vfhdlaihsâ

xv

ñKqï tall

billion ì,shkh ^109& îshla ,laIh&

Bcf >k wä ì,shkh ^109&

EJ tlaid ^1018& cQ,a

GWh .s.d^109& fjdÜ meh

ha fylag ^102& wdr

kcal lsf,da ^103& le,ß

kg lsf,da ^103& .%Eï

km lsf,da ^103& ógr

kWh lsf,da ^103& fjdÜ meh

m ógr

MBtu ì%;dkH ;dm tall ñ,shk ^106&

Mcf >k wä ñ,shk ^106&

MJ fu.d ^106& cQ,a

Ml fu.d ^106& ,Sgr

Million ñ,shk ^106& ^lsf,da oyils&

mmBtu ì%;dkH ;dm tall ñ,shk

Mt fgdka ñ,shk^106&

MW fu.d ^106& fjdÜ

Nm3 idudkH >k ógr ^0o

C iy jdhQf.da,Sh mSvkhlg idudkHlrKh lrk ,o& oC fikaá%f.aâ wxYl

PJ fmgd ^1015& cQ,a

Scf iïu; >k wä ^60oF iy jdhqf.da,Sh mSvkh 1 olajd idudkHlrKh lrk ,o&

tonne (t) fgdka ^1000kg&

tC ldnka fgdka

Tcf >k wä á%,shk ^1012&

tCO2 ldnkavfhdlaihsâ fgdka

TJ fgrd ^1012& cQ,a

μm uhsfl%d ^10-6&ógr

mßj¾;k idOl

ì%;dkH ;dm tall ^Btu& 1 } cQ,a 1'056 le,ß 1 } cQ,a 4'1868 .s.dfjdÜ meh 1 } .s.d cQ,a 3"600 jdhq iïu; >k wä 1 } ì%;dkH ;dm tall 1"000 jdhq fmgd cQ,a$jirlg 1 } 2'60 iïu; wä ñ,shk$Èk

xvi

fmrjok Y%S ,xldfõ w¨f;kau fidhd.;a n,Yla;s iïm; jk iajNdúl jdhq rgg wd¾Ól m%;s,dN ,nd.ekSu msKsi m%fhdackhg .; yels iqÿiqu wdldrh ms<snòj ks¾foaY bÈßm;a lsÍu iòyd Y%S ,xld ldnka wruqo, ^mqoa'& iud.u fj; wOHhkhla Ndr fok ,§' fuu wOHhkfhka n,Yla;s

mßfNdackfhys my; ±lafjk b,a¨ï wjia:d(scenarios)mÍCId lsÍug n,dfmdfrd;a;=fõ'

1' BAU - (Business-as-usual)iqmqreÿ mßÈ ld¾hh - oekg Ndú;hg .kq ,nk fmdis, bkaOkhkaf.aa j¾;udk mßfNdackh yqfola ie,ls,a,g f.ktajdfha wkd.; mrsfNdackh ms<snòm%jK;d mqfrdal:kh lsÍu'

2' NG1 - iajNdúl jdhqj" th Ndú; lsÍug yels n,Yla;s iy fjk;a wxYj,g y`ÿkajdfokq

,nk kuqÿ n,Yla;s b,a¨ï j¾Okh BAU j,g iudkj mj;skq we;' fuu b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" .Dyia:" ld¾ñl" iy m%jdyk wxY iòyd jdhq m%fõYh wvq YS>%;djhlska isÿjkq we;ehs Wml,amkh flfrk w;r .,a w`.=re fjkqjg

iajNdúl jdhq y`ÿkajd§u iòyd jQ CEB ie,iau ms<s.kq ,en we;' fuu wxYj,g iajNdúl jdhqj ixl%uKh ùfï§ meyeÈ,sju ta iòyd m%;sm;a;shla iy há;, myiqlï fjkila wjYHjkq we;s w;r fï ms<snò ixCIsma;j f;dr;=re olajkq we;'

3' NG2 - by; úia;r flreKq wxY ;=k iòyd fuu b,a¨ï wjia:dfjys jdhq m%fõYh by<

YS>%;djhlska isÿjkq we;ehs Wml,amkh flf¾' n,Yla;s wxYh iòyd" NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dfjys wka;¾.; lrk ,o" jdhq u.ska l%shd;aul flfrk n,Yla;s n,d.drhg wu;rj ;%sl=Kdu,fhys fhdað; .,a w`.=re n,d.drho jdhq u.ska ls%hdlrjkq we;ehs Wml,amkh flfrkq we;'

4' NG3 - ld,hla ;siafia .Dyia: wd¾Ólh ;=<g iajNdúl jdhqj m%Yia; f,i .%yKh lr .ekSu m%Njfhys È.= ld,Sk i;H wd¾Ól ,dNh m%;sM,h lrjkq we;s w;r" fuu b,a¨ï wjia:djg kj l¾udka; iy kj n,Yla;s n,d.dr msysgqùug wu;rj w;sßla; ksIamdokh øùlrKh lrwmkhkh lsÍu we;=,;a jkq we;'

m<uq wjêh iòyd jk fuu jd¾;dj ;=< .Dyia: iy jdKsc" ld¾ñl" m%jdykh iy n,Yla;sh -

hk wxY y;r iòyd fhdod .;a BAU" NG1 iy NG2 wjia:d3 muKla bÈßm;a flfrkq we;' fojk wjêh iòyd jQ jd¾;djg wkd.;fha ;sìh yels iuia; úl,am mrdihu we;=,;a flfrkq we;' tia' úl%uiQrsh

xvii

úOdhl idrxYh

l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmhg tmsáka uqyqfoa iajdNdúl jdhq ksê fidhd.ekSug wkq.dój" Y%S ,xldfõ fuu kj n,Yla;s iïm; Ndú;hg .ekSfï úêl%u ks¾Kh lsrSu msKsi wOHhkhla wdrïN lrk ,§'

m<uqj j¾I 2018 oS osklg >k wä ñ,shk ^Mcf) 70la ne.ska iajdNdúl jdhq ,nd .; yels fõhehs

wfmalaId lrk w;r j¾I 2021 §osklg 140 Mcf ne.ska o2023 § osklg 210 Mcf ne.ska o ,nd .; yels jdhq m%udKh jeä lr .; yels fõ hehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ' iajdNdúl jdhq f,dalfha fndfyda rgj, ;sfnk kuqÿ foaYSh fj<òfmd< b,aü"ksIamdok ñ," f;d. ñ, iy mdßfNda.sl ñ, u; r|d mj;S'

iajdNdúl jdhqj n,Yla;sh iòyd msßisÿ m%Njhla f,i f.da,Sh uÜgñka fhdod.ekSï ms<snò flá úia;rhla fuu jd¾;dfõ bosrsm;a fldg we;' .Dyia: wxYfhys wjldY WKqiqï lsÍu yd wdydr msiSu" l¾udka; wxYfhys ;dm Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu" iy n,Yla;s yd m%jdyk wxYj, pd,l n,h W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd th jvd WÑ; bkaOkhla f,i ie,fla' j¾;udkfha" f,dj uq¿ n,Yla;sh iy úÿ,sn,h hk oaú;ajhu W;amdokh lsÍfuys,d 21-22] muK odhl;ajhla iajdNdúl jdhq u.ska imhkq ,nk w;r" bkaÈhdfõ" Ökfha" iy cmdkfha jeäjk b,aü;a iu. úfYaIfhka wdishdj ;=< wkd.;fha§ fuu odhl;ajh ;j;a j¾Okh jkq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= úh yel' hQßhd iy fu;fkda,a ksIamdokho we;=,;a úúO l¾udka; iòyd wuq øjHhla f,io iajdNdúl jdhqj mq`M,a f,i Ndú;hg .efka'

cd;sl foaY iSud yryd lsf,daógr oyia .Kkla È.g t,k ,o k< ud¾. u.ska f.dvìu Tiafia iajdNdúl jdhqj mdßfNda.slhska fj; m%jdykh lrkq ,efí' m%Njhka iy mdßfNda.slhska id.r u.ska fjka lrk ,o wjia:dj," jdhqj m%jdykh lrkq ,nkafka ta iòydu idok ,o kdúl

hd;%djka ^jdyl& u.ska øj wjia:dfjks' øj wjia:djg m;a lrk ,o iajdNdúl jdhqj ^Liquefied

Natural Gas - LNG& megùfï § iy f.dvnEfï§ úYd, uqo,la jehlr úfYaI m¾hka; iy .eUqreceá boslsrSug wjYH jk w;r wdkhk jdhq m%udKh by<jeäfkdfõ kï" tjeks fufyhqï YlH fkdfõ' rg we;=<; iïmSä; lr fyda øj wjia:djg m;alr fyda jdyk u.ska jdhq m%jdykh lr mdrsfNda.slhska w;rfnod fokq ,efí'

fuf;la" Y%S ,xldj ;u n,Yla;s wjYH;d iòyd ffcj ialkaO" Lksc f;,a" úÿ,s n,h" iy .,a w`.=re u; hemS ;snqKq w;r iQ¾h fldaI" iq<x n,h" l=vd c,-úÿ,s n,d.dr" iy oej n,Yla;sh hkdÈh o ixj¾Okh flfrñka mj;S' úÿ,sn, m%Njhla f,i úYd, c,-úÿ,s n,d.drj,ska iemfhk odhl;ajh jir .Kkdjl isg wvqfõ.k hk w;r j¾;udkfha fmdis, bkaOk u.ska th wNsNjd hñka mj;S' Y%S ,xldfõ jd¾Isl iuia; n,Yla;s mßfNdackh miq.sh jir 10 ;=<"

tkï" 2003-2012 w;r ld,h ;=<" 2'5] l jd¾Isl idudkH j¾Ok fõ.hla fmkajñka 385 PJ ^1015

cQ,a& isg 482 PJ olajd by< f.dia we;' jd¾Isl idudkH j¾Ok fõ.h 5'3] la fmkajd,ñka wmf.a

úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh 7"700 GWh ^109 fjdÜ-meh& isg 11"800 GWh olajd fmr ie,l+ ld, iSudj ;=< by< ke. we;' flfiafj;;a" wm rfÜ tal mqoa., iuia: n,Yla;s mßfNdackh ^23'7

GJ/capita" j¾I 2012 §& fukau úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh ^515 kWh/capita" j¾I 2012 §& wdishdfõ mj;sk wvqu w.hhka w;r mj;S'

bkaOk mßfNdackfha m%jK;d ks¾Kh lsÍug 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< - lDIsl¾uh" .Dyia: yd jdKsc" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s - hk úúO wxY ;=< bkaOk mßfNdackh úYaf,aIKh lrk ,§' iuyr wxY Okd;aul m%jK;djhla fmkakqï lrk ,o w;r lDIsl¾uh jeks ;j;a wxYj, iuia; wvqùula iys; wl%uj;a yeisÍula fmkakqï lr ;snqKs' iudk m%jK;djhla wLKavj l%shd;aul fõ hehs Wml,amkh lrñka 2040 olajd wkd.; m%fCIamK ks¾Kh lsÍu iòyd 2008-2012 ld,h ;=< fmkakqï lrk ,o Okd;aul m%jK;d Ndú; lrk ,§' N+ñf;,a iy bkaOk f;,a jeks iuyr bkaOk iòyd tajdfha wkd.; b,a¨fï we;súh yels miq nEula ie,ls,a,g .ksñka

ieliSï isÿ lrk ,§' wkd.;h iòyd m%fCIamK úúO b,a¨ï wjia:d (scenario) ;=kla hgf;a isÿ

xviii

lrk ,§'

xix

oekg mj;sk iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï (Business-as-usual)wjia:dj hgf;a § 2040 olajd wxY 4l

^lDIsl¾uh yer& iuia; m%CIssma; mßfNdack" .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYfhys 61'1 PJ la ^253]l

jeäùula&" m%jdyk wxYfhys 566 PJla ^397]l jeäùula&" iy n,Yla;s wxYfhys 550 PJla ^593]l jeäùula& fmkakqï lrhs' ishü wxYj, bkaOk mßfNdackh 2014 - 2040 w;r ld,h ;=,os 223

PJ isg 1200 PJ olajd j¾Okh jkq we;' fuu n,Yla;s m%udKh iajdNdúl jdhqj,ska imqrd

.ekSug ;snqfKa kï" wjYH flfrk jdhq m%udKh 2014 § osklg 578 Mcf isg 2040 § osklg 3"120

Mcf olajd j¾Okh jkq we;'

bkaOk úfudapkj,g ksrdjrKh jQ ck;djf.a fi!LHh flfrys iDcq n,mEula iys; f,dj mqrd we;s .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk mßißl ydksfhys nrm;,lu fmkaùu iòyd" jdhq úfudapk u.ska iy bj;,k .,a w`.=re w`M hk oaú;ajfhkau we;s flfrk ¥IKfhys úúO wxY ms<snòj úia;rd;aul ;lafiarejla isÿ flf¾' .,a w`.=re oykh lsÍfï§ 10-20]la muK w`M b;srs jk w;r tu.ska mdxY= c,h ¥IKhg ,la lsÍfï yelshdjla iys; riÈh iy úlsrKYS,S øjH we;=,;a uQ,sl nerf,day .Kkdjla mig tla lrkq we;'

ck;djf.a fi!LHhg iy mßirhg fmdÿfõ isÿflreKq ydksh ixLHd;aulj ;lafiare lsÍu msKsi fjk;a rgj,a u.ska wOHhk lsysmhla isÿ lrkq ,en we;s w;r th W;amdokhg tl;= lrk ,o ndysr msßjehla f,i m%ldYhg m;a fldg we;' n,Yla;s ksIamdolhd úiska tu msrsjeh fkdork neúka fïjd ndysr msßjeh f,i ye`Èkafõ' flfiafj;;a" iudch ;=< fuu msßjeh hful= úiska ±ßh hq;= jk w;r th ÈhqKq f,dalh ;=< Ôú;fha .=Kd;aul nj flfrys hï n,mEula flfrk j¾Okh fjñka mj;sk idOlhla f,i ms<s.ekSula we;' iajdNdúl jdhqjg jvd .,a w`.=re" úÿ,s n,h W;amdokh iòyd wd¾:slj ,dnodhS m%Njhla f,i i,lkq ,enqjo thg ndysr msßjeh tl;= lrkq ,enQ úg fuu ;;ajh uq¿ukska fjkia fõ' úfYaIfhka Y%S ,xldg .,a w`.=re wmkhkh lsÍfuoS;a iajNdúl jdhqj foaYShj imhd .ekSfuoS;a fuu ;;ajh n,mdkq we;'

fjr<ska wE; msysá <sxj,ska ,nd.;a jdhq fjr<g f.k tk ,ÿj f.dvìu msysg jQ uOHia:dkhlos msßisÿ lr iïmSvkhg ,la lsÍfuka wk;=rej k< ud¾.hla Tiafiak.rhg wdikakj .nvdlsÍfï

myiqlu iys; m¾hka;hla fj; /f.k tkq ,efí' oekgu;a LPG iòyd .nvdlsÍfï myiqlï mj;sk flrj,msáh jeks m%Odk mdßfNda.sl uOHia:dkhg wdikakj fuh msysgq ùug bv ;sfí'

wm rfÜ ia:dms; fldg we;s ;dm n,d.dr w;=ßka ;=kla ^03& taldnoaO Odß;djh 628 MWla iys;

ixhqla; pl% jdhq g¾nhsk ^Combined Cycle Gas Turbine - CCGT& fõ' fïjd iòyd j¾;udkfha ãi,a f;,a" kema;d iy bkaOk f;,a Ndú; flfrk w;r fuu n,d.dr w;ßka tlla flrj,msáfha o b;sß fol k.rfhys W;=re iSudfjys jQ le,Ks;siaifhys o msysgqjd we;' fuu n,d.dr ;=fkys bkaOk iòyd jQ b,a,qu uQ,sl jYfhka 2018 oS ,nd .; yels jdhq m%udKh yd ieifòk w;r" tu n,d.dr iajdNdúl jdhq u.ska l%shd;aul jk f,ig wju msßjehla ord ilid .; yelsh'

iajdNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lsÍfuka n,Yla;s fCIa;%h ;jÿrg;a ixj¾Okh lsÍu b,a¨ï wjia:d

folla (scenario)hgf;a" tkï" NG1 iy NG2 f,i l%shd;aul l< yelsh' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a" LNG n,d.dr boslsÍfï 2014 CEB ie,eiaug wkqj j¾I 2022 wdrïN jk úg 250MWla

jk CCGT n,d.dr .Kkdjla y`ÿkajd fokq we; ^CEB jd¾;dfõ weuqKqu 7'15&' NG2 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a" fuhg wu;rj" ;%sl=Kdu,fha bÈlsÍug fhdað; 1000 MWl .,a w`.=re n,d.drh

fjkqjg 2018 j¾Ih wdrïN jk úg jdhq oykh flfrk 250 MWl Odrs;dj iys; n,d.dr

y;rla ^04& msysgqjkq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a fhdað;" jdhq oykh flfrk n,d.dr

l%shd lrùu iòyd wjYHhehs weia;fïka;= lrk ,o jdhq m%udKh 2018 oS osklg 93 Mcf o" 2025 oS

osklg 322 Mcf o" 2030 oS osklg 462 Mcf o iy 2040 oS osklg 807 Mcf o jkq we;' NG2 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a Bg wkqrEmS w.hhka ms<sfj<ska osklg 122" 426" 565 iy 910 Mcf fõ'

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j¾I 2023g miqj" osklg jdhq ksIamdokh 210 Mcf olajd f;.=K jQ úg" iajdNdúl jdhqj m%jdyk iy wfkl=;a wxYj,g y`ÿkajd oSug bvm%ia;dj ,efnkq we;' fuh" b,a¨ï wjia:d folla( tkï

NG1" wvq b,aüla iys;j iy NG2" by, b,aüla iys;j l%shd;aul lsÍug fhdað;h' n,Yla;s

iy .Dyia: wxY yer wka wxYj, NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq odhl;ajh NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a jQ jdhq odhl;Ajh fuka fo.=khls¡

k<ud¾. cd, we;=<;aj wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï iQodkï jk ;=re" .Dyia: iy jdKsc

^HH&C& wxYh ;=, jdhq Ndú;h jir lsysmhlska l,a oefukq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a j¾I 2026 oS uQ,sl jYfhka 4]l odhl;ajhl=;a j¾I 2040 oS 60]l odhl;ajhla olajd jeä lrñka

2026 os osklg 2'2 Mcf isg 2040 oS osklg 89 Mcf olajd mßfNdack j¾Okhla isÿ lrjñka

iajdNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd oSug yelsjk nj wfmalaId flf¾' NG2 b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a" j¾I 2026 oS 6] odhl;ajhlska wdrïN ù 2040 j¾IfhaoS 90] olajd jdhq odhl;ajh by< hkq we;' fï

wkqj 2026 - 2040 w;r jdhq mrsfNdackh osklg 3'5 Mcf isg osklg 133 Mcf olajd wkqrEmS j¾Okhla fmkakqï flf¾' ksjdi fhdackd l%u fyda uy,a ksjdi ixlS¾Kj, fyda ;sfnk ksjdi fmdl=rej, fjfik jdhq mdrsfNda.slhskg iajdNdúl jdhqj iemhSu i|yd tajd ;=, wNHka;r k<

ud¾. cd,hla bÈlsÍu jvd myiq jkq we;' fuu cd, fj; jdhqj LNG f,i m%jdykh lsÍug fyda

k< ud¾.fhka fyda" mßudKhg wkqj issÿ l< yelsh' LNG f,i jdhqj m%jdykh lrkafka kï øj jdhqj kej; jdhq njg yerùfï myiqlï we;s .%dyl uOHia:dk ksjdi ixlS¾K wi, ia:dmkh flfrkq we;'

l¾udka; wxYh ;=<" l¾udka; fmdl=re msysá ld¾ñl l,dm ;=< isákakd jQ jdhq mdrsfNdaclhkag ;dm n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍug fhdod .kakd f;,a fjkqjg jdhqj fhdod .ekSu msKsi uq,a

wjia:dfõoS jdhq iemhSu l< yelsfõ' fujeks ld¾ñl l,dmj,go LNG f,i jdhqj imhd tla tla l¾udka; Yd,dj,g k<ud¾. Tiafia jdhqj fnod yeßh yels jk mßÈ" ld¾ñl l,dm ;=< .%dyl uOHia:dk ia:dms; flfrkq we;' tjeks jdhq fnod yeÍfï moaO;s l<ukdlrKh lsrSu

i|yd n,m;% ,;a l%shdlrejka m;a l, yelsh' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" j¾I 2023 jk úg

osklg 0'9 Mcf la iòyd b,a,qula f.k foñka iajdNdúl jdhqj u.ska 4] la jQ LPG iy bkaOk f;,a taldnoaO mßfNdackh m%;sia:dmkh flf¾' fuu b,a,qu l%ul%ufhka" 2040 jk úg 72]la

fyda osklg 26 Mcf la olajd j¾Okh jkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" 8] l j¾Okhla iys;j jir 2034 olajd 96]la f;la iy bka wk;=rej 2040 olajd 100] lska o

iajdNdúl jdhqj iòyd jk b,a,qu by< hkq we;' b,aü 2030 oS osklg 1'9 Mcf isg 2040 oS 36 '3

Mcf olajd by< hEu fuu.ska isÿjkq we;'

n,Yla;sh fkdjk fhdod.ekSïj,oS" m%Odk f,i hQßhd iy iajdNdúl jdhqj mokï fldg.;a fjk;a fndfyda ksIamdok ksmoùfuys,d fhdojd .; yels wuq øjHhla f,i o iajdNdúl jdhqj

Ndú; flfrkq we;' hQßhd hkq rg ;=< úYd, b,aüla mj;sk fmdfydr j¾.hls' NG1 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a" j¾I 2025 isg jd¾Islj fgdka ñ,shkhla ^Mt 1la& uQ,slj ksIamdokh lsÍu iy

j¾I 2030 oS 1'25 Mt olajd;a" 2035 oS 1'5 Mt olajd;a ksIamdokh jeä lsÍug fhdackd flf¾' ;j;a

fmdfydr j¾.hla jk wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ÂMS& jd¾Islj 100 kt l Odß;djhlska hqla;j 2025

j¾IfhaoS wdrïN lr 2030 jk úg 125 kt olajd;a 2035 jk úg 150 kt olajd;a ksmoùu wdrïN

flfrkq we;' fuhg wu;rj" iajdNdúl jdhqfjka ksmoúh yels" ãi,a f;,a iy LPG yd iudk

,laIK iys; bkaOkhla jk Dimethy-Ether (DME) ksIamdokho tjeksu YS>%;djhlska wdrïN flfrkq we;' fuu l¾udka; ;=k ^03& iòyd 2025" 2030" iy 2035 hk j¾Ij,oS iajdNdúl jdhqj

ms<sfj<ska osklg 81" 101" iy 121 Mcfla wjYH flfrkq we;'

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" fu;fkda,a iy t;fkda,a ksIamdokh wdrïN lsÍu wfmalaId flf¾'

fu;fkda,a iòyd 1'0 Mtl iy t;fkda,a iòyd 100 ktl jd¾Isl Od¾;djlska hqla;j kj

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l¾udka; 2025§ wdrïN jkq we;' fïjd 2030 § iy 2035 § ms<sfj<ska 1'5 Mt iy 150 kt olajd by< hkq we;' fulS l¾udka; my ^05& iòydu wkqrEmS iajdNdúl jdhq b,aü túg" 2025 §" 2030

§ iy 2035 § ms<sfj<ska osklg 194" 271 iy 347 Mcf jkq we;' foaYSh l¾udka; iòyd fldgila o b;sßh wmkhkh Ndú; flfrkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' iajdNdúl jdhqj ;sfnkafka kï" j¾;udkfhys wdkhkh lrkq ,nk ksIamdok mrdihla furg ksmojñka iajNdúl jdhq mdol ridhksl l¾udka; fm<la ìyslsÍug u. mdokq we;'

m%jdyk wxYfhyso NG1 wvq b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a iy NG2 jeä b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhQ b,aü i,ld n,kq we;' l%ul%ufhka jeäjk YS>%;d hgf;a 2023 § 2] lska wdrïN ù 2040 jk

úg 36]l odhl;ajhla olajd NG1 wvq b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a iajdNdúl jdhqj fhdod .ekSu isÿ

jkq we;' fuh" 2023 § osklg 10 Mcf o" 2025 § osklg 34 Mcf o" 2030 § osklg 125 Mcf o 2040

§ osklg 530 Mcf jk f,i iajNdúl jdhq b,a ulg fya;=jkq we;' NG2 jeä b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a wkqrEmS b,aü ms<sfj<ska osklg 20" 68" 249 iy 1059 Mcf jkq we;' fmg%,a fjkqjg CNG

o ãi,a f;,a fjkqjg LNG o wdfoaYkh msKsi wkqrEmS f,i CNG iy LNG j, b,aü fjk fjku ,nd§u iòyd by; m%fCIamK Wm-fn§ïj,g ,la flreK‘s' m%jdykh iòyd iDcq f,i

iajNdúl jdhqj mßfNdackh lrkjdg wu;rj" m%jdyk wxYh iòyd DME fhdod .ekSu o isÿ l< yelsh' tkuqÿ" oaú;aj .Kka .ekSu j<ld,Su iòyd fuu odhl;ajh fuys§ ie,ls,a,g Ndckh fkdflreKs'

idudkHfhka" ieye,A¨ jdyk l%shdlrùu iòyd CNG fhdod .ekSu o nia iy g%la r: we;=<;aa

nrjdyk l%shdlrùu iòyd LNG o fhdod.kq we;' fuu b,lal h:d¾:hla lr .ekSug kï" CNG

iy LNG jdykj,g iemhSug wjYH flfrk myiqlï iïmdokh lsÍu msKsi fm!oa.,sl wxYh Wkkaÿ lsÍu isÿ l< hq;= jk w;r Lksc f;,aj,ska iajdNdúl jdhqj fj;g udreùu iòyd mdßfNda.slhska yg wkqn, Èh hq;=h' uyckhdg f;,a fj;ska jdhq fj;g udreùulg w;HjYH

mQ¾j-wjYH;djhhla jk" m%Odk uyd ud¾. fomi CNG iy LNG bkaOk wf,úy,A m%udKj;a ixLHdjla ia:dms; lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h'

úúO wxY fj;g iajdNdúl jdhqj wÈhrfhka wÈhrhg y`ÿkajd§fï m%;sM,hla jYfhka j¾I 2018

§ b,aü osklg 93 Mcf la f,io j¾I 2040 § osklg 1609 Mcf la olajdo b,aü j¾Okh jkq we;' fuu YS>%;djfhka iajdNdúl jdhqj jir 22la ;siafia iïmdokh lsÍu msKsi iajdNdúl jdhq

ksêj, Odrs;dj 6 Tcf ^1012cf&la ;sìh hq;=h' NG2 jeä b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a" iajdNdúl jdhq

iòyd jk b,aü 2018 § osklg 122 Mcf isg 2040 § osklg 2525 Mcf olajd by< k.skq we;' fuu mrsfNdack YS>%;dj hgf;a jir 22l ld,hla ;siafia iajdNdúl jdhqj ,nd .ekSug kï" 10

Tcfl Odß;djhla iajdNdúl jdhq ksêj, ;sìh hq;=h'

wm rfÜ iajdNdúl jdhq Ndú;hg udreùu u.ska" yß;d.dr jdhQka jk CO2" CH4" iy N2O

fukau ¥IK jdhQ jk SO2" NO2" iy TSP úfudapkh my; fy,Su jeks úúO jQ fukau cd;sl uÜgfï m%;s,dN ms<snò i<ld ne,Su fuu wOHhkh u.ska isÿ fldg we;' ¥IKh isÿ lrk jdhq úfudapk wvq lsÍu u.ska tlS ¥IK jdhq iy wj,ïN‘; wxY= wdYajdifhka we;s úh yels Yajik wdndO iòyd m%;sldr fidhd meñfKk frda.Ska yg m%;sldr lsÍfuys,d wm rfÜ fi!LH wxYh fj; t,a,jk mSvkh wvq flfrkq we;' ishü wxYj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk fuys§ ie,ls,a,g f.k we;'

iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a j¾I 2040§" SO2 úfudapkh 359 kto" NO2 úfudapkh 283 kto"

TSP úfudapkh 22 kt o" iy CO2 úfudapkh 103 Mt o jkq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a

by;lS m%udK tu ld,h mrsÉfþoh ;=< ms<sfj<ska" 112 kt" 194 kt" 6 kt" iy 74 Mt olajd wvqjkq

we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" fuu úfudapk ms<sfj<ska 46 kt" 184 kt" 3 kt" iy 65 Mt olajd ;j ÿrg;a wvq flfrkq we;'

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foaYShj iajdNdúl jdhqj ksmoùfï msrsjeh wkqj tys ñ, wdrïNfhaos Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 15

jYfhkao" wk;=rej USD 10 iy USD 5 olajd l%ufhka wvq jkq we;ehso wfmalaId flf¾' n,Yla;s wxYfhys Lksc f;,a iïmQ¾Kfhkau o .,a w`.=re w¾O jYfhkao j¾I 2040 jk úg

Ndú;fhka bj;a lsÍfuka NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a USD ì,shk 7la muKo NG2 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a USD ì,shk 8lg wêl m%udKhlao b;sß lr .ekSfï yelshdj mj;S' ta yd iudkju" iajNdúl jdhqj wÈhrfhka wÈhrg y`ÿkajd §fï m%;sM,hla f,i m%jdyk wxYh ;=< iy hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍfï§ by; iòyka m%udKhg iudk m%udKhla b;sß lr .; yels jkq we;' úfYaIfhkau" wkd.;fha§ .,a w`.=re iòyd jk msßjeh by< hEu iy foaYSh iajdNdúl jdhq iòyd jk msßjeh my< hEu isÿjkq we;ehs hk wfmalaIdj iys;j" ndysr n,mEï iòyd jk msßjeh fkdi,ld yeßho ;dm n,d.dr l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd iajdNdúl jdhq m%fhdackhg .ekSu jvd jdisodhl jkq we;'

w¿;ska ksê fidhd .kakd ,o úg hï w;sßla; jdhq m%udKhla we;akï" úfYaIfhka bkaÈhdjg k< ud¾. Tiafia o" wE; fmr È. rgj, b,a¨fuys j¾Okh jeäfõ hehs wfmaCIdj we;sj tu

rgj,g tlS w;sßla;h LNG f,i o wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd we;s wjia:djka msßlaiSu o isÿ fldg we;' ;jo wdishdj ;=< iajNdúl jdhq iïm%odhl iemhqï bosrsfhaos wjm%udK úh yels kuq;a iïm%odhl fkdjk ^Y,al jdhq iy f;,a ika>ksl& m%Nj jeä oshqKqlsrSu u.ska th WodiSk flfrkq we;' bkaOk f;,a oykh u.ska kdjql hd;%d f,dalfha yß;d.dr jdhq úfudapkj,g ie,lsh hq;= uÜgñka odhl ùu;a msßisÿ bkaOk Ndú;hg kdjql hd;%d mßj¾;kh lsÍu iòyd

we;s wjia:d jeä ùu;a fya;= fldg f.k LNG u.ska l%shd lrk kdjql hd;%d iòyd bkaOk iemhSfï myiqlï yïnkaf;dg jrdh we;=<; msysgqùfï jeo.;alu ms<snòj o ie,ls,a, fhduq fldg we;'

iajdNdúl jdhq fj; udreùfï m%;sM,hla f,i wm rgg ,nd .; yels m%;s,dN fndfydauhls' fï hgf;a n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh" wdydr iqrCIs;;djh" oekg mj;sk úksuh fYaIh mshùu" msßisÿ jd;h" ¥IKhg ,la fkdjQ c,h" ner f,day iy úlsrKYS,S øjH iys; .,a w`.=re w`M f.dvj,aj,ska ksoyia N+ñh" fi!LH wxYh fj; isÿ flfrk mSvdj wvq lsÍu" kj /lshd wjia:d WodlsÍu" iy Y%S ,xldj md¾jYlrejl= jk cd;Hka;r iïuq;s hgf;a we;s ne`§ï iy j.lSï bgqlsÍug yelsùu hkdÈh ±laúh yelsh'

iajNdúl jdhqj mdol fldg.;a l¾udka; ixj¾Okh lsÍug yelsjk mßÈ m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a lssysmhla y`ÿkajd§ug rchg wjYH jkq we;' fuys§ i,ld ne,sh hq;= iuyr m%Odk lreKq f,i" jdhq Ndú;fha§ ms<smeosh hq;= wdrCIl lreKq" jdhq wdkhkh iy fnod yeÍu kshdukh lsÍu" jdykj, jdhq Ndú; lsÍu iòyd ffk;sl bvlv ie,iSu" fmg%,a$ãi,a jdyk wdkhkh iSud lsÍu" foaYSh k<ud¾. cd, l%shdlrjkakka yg n,m;% ,nd§u" nÿ wh lsÍu iy msrsjegqï u; .dia;= whlsÍu" wdfhdaclhska osrs .ekaùu" fjr<nv m%foaYj, mßißl n,mEu ie,ls,a,g f.k wod< n,OdÍkaf.a wkque;sh ,nd §u" iy m¾fhaIK yd ixj¾Ok lghq;= iòyd uQ,HdOdr iemhSu" wdosh ±laúh yelsh'

fuu jevms<sfj, ish,a, foaYSh fj<òfmd< by< kexùug iy mßudK u; hefmk wd¾Ólhla f.dvke`.Sug Wmldrjkq we;' fïjd u.ska n,Yla;sfhys idudkH msßjeh my< ±óu" b,a ï j¾Okh fõ.j;a lsÍu iy Y%S ,xldj iS>% ixj¾Ok .uka m:hla u; msysgqùu isÿ jkq we;' ish,a, jdKsc jYfhka bÈßhg mj;ajdf.k hEug yels úh hq;= w;r" rcfha lsisÿ iykdOdrhla fï iòyd wjYH fkdjkq we;'

wfkla w;g" wm úiska fï ms<sn|j lsisjla fkdlrkafka kï" wd¾Ólh iy ;dCIKh hk fo wxYfhkau miqnEïj,g uqyqK mEug rgg isÿjkq we;' Y%S ,xldj bkaOk wdkhkh msKsi uq`M wdkhk úhoñka 25] lg wdikak m%udKhla ±kgu;a jeh lrhs' cd;Hka;r bkaOk fj<òfmf<ys ks;r we;sjkakd jQ WÉp úp,khka iu." wmf.a wd¾Ólh nrm;< mSvkhlg ,la lrñka wkd.;fha§ bkaOk ñ< by< hEug fnfyúka bvlv ;sfí' iSñ; N+ñ iïm;la iys;j

xxiii

jeú,s u; mokï jQ wmkhk mq`M,a lsÍu u.ska rfÜ wdodhu jeä lsÍug we;s bvm%ia;dj wvqh' ;jÿrg;a" weußldfõ wNsreÑhg wkqj wjq¨jkq ,nk ueo fmrÈ. rgj, .egqï W;aikak ùu wmf.a bkaOk iemhqïj,g fukau wm rgg ie,lsh hq;= wdodhula f.k tk ueo fmrÈ. rgj, isák Y%S ,xlSh Y%u n,ldfha jD;a;Shuh wkd.;hg o ;¾ckhla úh yelsh' tfyhska" wm rfÜ wkd.; n,Yla;s wjYH;djhka imqrd .ekSu msKsi foaYSh m%Nj flfrys úYajdih ;eîu jeo.;afõ' fhdacs; .,a w`.=re n,d.dr úYd, ixLHdjla boslsrSu" ñksiqkaf.a fi!LHhg kej; ilia l< fkdyels ydkshla we;s lsÍu muKla fkdj ixpdrl l¾udka;h iy wd¾Ól ixj¾Okh jeks fCIa;% flfrys wys;lr n,mEï we;s lrñka" jd;h" c,h" iy N+ñh ¥IKh lsÍu isÿ lrkq we;'.,a w`.=re n,d.dr fjkqjg iajNdúl jdhq n,Yla;s n,d.dr msysgqùfuka fuu wys;lr n,mEï ish,a, wju lr .; yelsh'

1

1' ye`Èkaùu

1'1 Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq Y%S ,xldj ;=< Lksc f;,a ms<snò .fõIKh óg wvishjilg;a wêl ld,hlg fmr ukakdrï fndlal m%foaYfhka wdrïN lrk ,o w;r tu ld,h ;=< f;,a ms<snòj lsisu fydavqjdjla fkd,enqKs' flfiafj;;a" fkdfndaod isÿ lrk ,o .fõYK u.ska Y%S ,xldfõ uqyqÿ wdY%s;j

iajNdúl jdhq ^NG& ksê msysgd we;s njg idCIs ,eî we;' l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmhg tmsáka .eUqre Èfha jdhq ksê ;sfnk nj N+lïmk o;a;j, uQ,sl úYaf,aIK u.ska fmkajd § ;sfí' .fõYK lKavdhug wkqj tajd u;=msgg weo .ekSu idfmaCIj úhoï wêl l%shdj,shla jk kuqÿ j¾;udk ;dCIKh msysg fldg f.k th isÿlsrSug YLH;dj ;sfí' ;jÿrg;a .fõYK lghq;= isÿ lsÍug kï" ;sfnkakd jQ ;ekam;=j, jmißh u; ròd mj;sñka fulS jdhq wmkhkh lsÍug fukau Y%S ,xldj ;=< fuu kj n,Yla;s m%Njh mßfNdackh l< yels Wmdhud¾. ms<snòj wOHhkh lsÍu w;HjYHfhkau isÿ l< hq;=fõ' tksid" furg Lksc f;,a iïm;a ixj¾Okh msKsi rch úiska msysgqjk ,o Lksc f;,a iïm;a

ixj¾Ok f,alï ld¾hd,h ^PRDS&" wdkhkh lrk ,o Lksc f;,a fyda øj lrk ,o Lksc

f;,a jdhqj ^LPG& fyda .,a w`.=re fyda fjkqjg fhdod .; yels n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i foaYSh iajNdúl jdhqj we;=<;a lr.ekSfï cd;sl m%;s,dN we.hSu msKsi wOHhkhla isÿ lsÍug ie,iqï lrk ,oS' fuu wOHhkh u.ska" ^w& wd¾Ól jYfhka jdisodhl f,i wuqøjHhla f,i fhdod .; yels wxY" ^wd& tjeks wdfoaYkhla iòyd wjYH flfrk jdhq m%udKhka" iy ^we& cd;sl n,Yla;s fCIa;%hg wÈhfrka wÈhr jdhq y`ÿkajd§fï § ixfYdaOkhg ,la l< hq;= m%;sm;a;s wxY ms<snòj ks¾jpkh lrkq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;=fõ' óg wu;rj" foaYSh iajNdúl jdhqj wvq úhoï n,Yla;s m%Njhla iy l¾udka; wuqøjHhla njg m;aùu;a iu. l=uk wdldrfha wu;r l¾udka; W;amdokh jkq we;a±hs fidhd .ekSug f,alï ld¾hd,hg wjYH ù ;sfí' l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmhg tmsáka jdhq ksê fidhdf.k ;sfnk w;r uqyqo háka t,k ,o k< ud¾.hla Tiafia tajd fjr< fj; f.k tkq we;' fndfyda úg flrj,msáfha msyqgq ùug bv ;sfnk uOHu .nvd m¾hka;hlgfuu jdhqf.k tau msKsi tajd mú;% fldg" iïmSvkhlg ,la fldg" k< ud¾. ;=<g fhduqlsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h' bka wk;=rej" fuu jdhqj b,aü yd mdßfNda.sl reÑl;ajh u; mokïj k< ud¾. Tiafia fyda iïmSvk fyda øj njg fyda m;a lrk ,o ;;aj hgf;a mqrjk ,o nyd¨ï Tiafia fyda fnod yefrkq we;' j¾;udkfha fidhdf.k ;sfnk ksêfhka 2018 j¾Ifha isg Èklg jdhq >k wä ñ,shk 70la

^Mcf/d& ksIamdokh l< yels njo tu ksIamdokh j¾I 2021 jk úg Èklg 140 Mcf la olajd

iy 2023 jk úg Èklg 210 Mcf la olajd by< kexúh yels njo .fõYkh Ndrj isák md¾Yjh iòyka lrhs' fï w;r;=r j¾;udkfha fidhd f.k we;s iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh iòyd ilia lrk ,o ie,iqï u; mokïj ;jÿrg;a kj fCIa;% .fõYkhg lghq;= wdrïN lrkq we;' 1'2 wOHhkh u.ska isÿúh hq;= ld¾hNdrh

PRDS u.ska ksl=;a fldg we;s" fuu wOHhkh u.ska isÿúh hq;= ld¾hNdrh ms<snò fldkafoais fufiah'

2

1. úÿ,sh ckkh" m%jdykh" ld¾ñl ;dm ckkh" .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxY iòyd bkaOk

f,i .,a w`.=re" Lksc f;,a iy LPG m%fhdackhg .ekSfïoS tajdfha j¾;udk Ndú;h iy wkd.; m%jK;d ms<snò ;lafiare lsÍu'

2. Y%S ,dxlSh ikao¾Nh ;=< by; olajk wxYhkays úúO bkaOk Ndú; lsÍfïoS isÿúh yels ndysr msßjeh i;H f,i mqfrdal:kh lsÍu'

3. iDcq iy ndysr msßjeh n,mEu hk fofldgiu we;=<;aj ´kEu tlla fyda by; iòyka lrk ,o wNsu;d¾: ish,a, iòyd foaYShj ksmofjk iajNdúl jdhqj wdfoaYkh lsÍu u.ska we;s flfrk cd;sl m%;s,dN ixCIsma;j olajk jd¾;djla ms<sfh< lsÍu' foaYSh fyda cd;Hka;r fyda uQ,dY% iys;j fuu jd¾;dj iukaú; úh yels kuqÿ wod< ishü ixLHd uQ,dY% ;yjqre l< hq;=fõ'

4. Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhqj, Ndú;h Èßu;a l< yels fjk;a ´kEu wxYhla we;a kï th .%yKh lsÍu'

5. È.=ld,Sk f,i ´kEu j¾.hl fmdis, bkaOk u; ròd meje;au wju lrk f,i mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s Ndú;h by< kexùug yhsfv%dldnk ksIamdokj,ska ,efnk wdodhu fhdod .; yels wdldrhg wdfhdack" m%;sm;a;s" iy há;, myiqlï ie,eiau ks¾foaY lsÍu'

1'3 wOHhkfha iels,a, kj n,Yla;s m%Njh mßfNdackh ms<snò idlÉPd lsÍug fmr" n,Yla;s mßfNdackh iy ixj¾Okh yd iïnkaOj l,dmh ;=< iy f.da,Shj tlsfkl iïnkaO neúka rfÜ N+f.da,Sh" iudc iy wd¾Ól wxY yd by; iòyka mßÈ l,dmh ;=< yd f.da,Shj tajdfha ;;ajh mÍCId lsÍu iqÿiq jkq we;' rfÜ iudc-wd¾Ól miqìfuys iúia;rd;aul igykla mrsYsIaghla f,i wka;¾.; lr ;sfí' rg wNHka;r N+ñ ,laIK" rg jgd ;sfnk uqyqo" c, iïm;a" cd;sl wd¾:slh" orsø;djh" ck.yk ,laIK iy foaY.=Kh wdoS úIhhka óg we;=<;a lr we;' iajdNdúl jdhq îa-jdhq& ms<snò úIhh rgg w¨;a fohla jk neúka" tajdfha ,CIK iy Ndú;hka ms<snòj flá úia;rhla bosrsm;a lr we;' f.da,Shj tys m%Odk fhdod.ekSï jkafka n,Yla;sh ckkh" f.dvke.s,s ;=< wjldY ;dmkh" iy l¾udka; wxYh iòyd h' flfiafj;;a" Lksc f;,a m%Odk jYfhka mßfNdackh flfrk wxY fol jk n,Yla;s iy m%jdyk wxY iòyd ia-jdhq Y%S ,xldj ;=< Ndú;h iòyd jk yelshdj iy f;,a fjkqjg ia-jdhq Ndú;d lsrSfïoS tA iòyd we;s úh yels b,aü ksudkh fldg ;sfí' n,Yla;s wjYH;dj,ska m%Odk fldgila ffcjialkaO u.ska ,nd .kakd wxY folla jk l¾udka;" .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxY iòyd ;dmYla;s m%Njhla f,i ia-jdhq imhkq ,eîugo wjia:djla ;sfí' fuu wxY fol ;=< f;,a fjkqjg ia-jdhq Ndú;d lsrSfïoS tA iòyd jk b,aü o ;lafiare fldg ;sfí' úfYaIfhkau l¾udka; iuQyhla ;ks i:dkhl msysá l¾udka; l,dm i|yd o ksjdi ixlS¾K i|yd o m<uqfldg jdhq iemhsh yels jkafkah úfYaIfhkau hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu jeks l¾udka; wxY iòyd wuq øjHhla f,i o ia-jdhq Ndú; l< yelsh' foaYShj hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd ia-jdhqj flfrys we;s b,aü ;lafiare fldg we;' fmr oYlfha§ úúO wxYhka ;=< n,Yla;sh iòyd jQ b,aü iy 2040 f;la tajdfha wkd.; b,aüo ie,ls,a,g f.k we;' tla tla fhdod .ekSula iòyd fuu wxY ;=< jd¾;udkfha Ndú;

3

flfrk f;,a iy .,a w`.=re fjkqjg b,a ï wjia:d hq.,hla hgf;a ia-jdhq Ndú; lsÍfï we;s yelshdj idlÉPdjg n`ÿka fldg we;' fuu wOHhkh u.ska n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk fya;= fldg f.k we;s úh yels ndysr msßjeh ms<snò f;dr;=re ,nd.ekSug W;Aidy f.k ;sfí' .,a wÕ=re fjkqjg ia-jdhq fhdod .ekSfuka f.da,Sh WKqiqu md,kh lr .ekSug Wmldrs jk ksid ta ms<sn|j o idlÉpd lr we;'msßisÿ n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,iiajdNdúl jdhq fj;g udreùu u.ska mdßißl" iudc iy wd¾Ól wxYj,g ,eîug bvlv we;s cd;sl m%;s,dN ms<snòj idlÉPd flfrkq we;' wjidk

jYfhka" øj ;;ajhg m;a lrk ,o iajNdúl jdhq iy LNGj,ska l%shdlrk keõj,g bkaOk iemhSu hk WNh ldrKd jYfhka wkd.;fha§ w;sßla;hla we;sùfï n,dfmdfrd;a;=j iys;j jdhq l,dmfha rgj,g wmkhk lsrSfï yelshdj ms<snò idlÉPd lrkq ,efí'

4

2' Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhq l<ukdlrKh ukakdrï fndlalg tmsáka ia-jdhq fidhd.ekSu ms<snò ksfõokh rch u.ska 2011 j¾Ifha§ m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,§' flfiafj;;a" n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i iy l¾udka; wuq øjHhla f,i ia-jdhqj, we;s m%fhdack ms<sn|j m%;sm;a;s iïmdolhskao we;=,;aj ,xldfõ uyck;dj t;rï wjfndaOhla ;sfnk nj fmfkkakg ke;' w¨f;ka fidhd .kakd ,o iajNdúl jdhq foaYShj Ndú;hg .; hq;af;a flfiao hkak ms<snòj idlÉPd lsÍug fmr" ia-jdhq ms<snòj uQ,sl f;dr;=re iy tajdfha mßfNdackh ms<snò uQ,sl jegySula ,nd .ekSu fuys,d jeo.;afõ' 2'1 iajNdúl jdhqj, ,CIK iuyrla

iajNdúl jdhqj hkq m%Odk jYfhka óf;aka ^CH4& ^90-95]& iy úúO m%udKj,ska Wiia

we,aflak- Bf;aka ^C2H6&" fm%dfmaka ^C3H8&" iy ìhqfÜka ^C4H10& - iy wvq m%;sY;hlska hq;a

ldnka vfhdlaihsâ ^CO2&" khsg%cka ^N2& iy yhsv%cka i,a*hsâ ^H2S&j,ska iukaú; yhsfv%dldnk jdhq ñY%Khlafõ' idudkHfhka wfkl=;a fmdis, bkaOk yg.kakd .eUqre mdIdK wjg iajNdúl jdhq yuqfõ' mSvkhla hgf;a ;sîu fya;= fldg f.k" ;ekam;=j fj; k<hla we;=,a l< úg fjk;a Wmldrhlska f;drj fuu jdhq fmdf<dj u;= msgg meñfKa' iajNdúl jdhQj hkq" ;dmkh" wdydr msiSu" iy úÿ,sh ckkh iòyd mq`M,a f,i Ndú; flfrk n,Yla;s m%Njhls' jdyk iòyd bkaOk f,i iy ma,diaála iy jdKscj jeo.;a jk ldnksl ridhk øjH ksIamdokfha§ wuq øjHhla f,i o th Ndú; flf¾' iajNdúl jdhQfj m%uqL;u jdhqj jk óf;aka ir,u yhsfv%dldnkhla ùu ksid lsisu wdldrhl fkd±jqKq ldnka fyda yhsfv%dldnka fyda úfudapkh fkdlr ±ù hhs' th" ishü fmdis, bkaOk w;ßka msßisÿu bkaOkh f,i ye`Èkaúh yelsh' tys iq¨ m%udKhlg ksrdjrKh jQ úg th OQ,lhla f,i l%shd fkdlrhs' ldkaÿ ùul§" jd;fha wKql Ndrh jk 29 yd iiòk úg óf;aka wKql Ndrh 16la iys;j jd;hg jvd ieye,a¨ jk neúka" iajNdúl jdhqj ñksia Ôú;hg lsisu wdldrhl ;¾ckhla u;= fkdfldg iefKlska úisÍ hhs' iajNdúl jdhqj oykfha§ f;,a fyda .,a w`.=re fuka fkdj lsisu >k wjfYaIhla fyda jdhquh ¥Il fyda øj wmjdy b;sß fkdlrhs'

fmdis, bkaOk w;r wvqu ldnka$yhsv%cka ^C/H& wkqmd;h iys; iajNdúl jdhqj by<u o<

;dmckl w.hfhka ^GCV& iy wvqu ldnka wka;¾.;fhka iukaú; fõ' ráka rgg iy m%Njh

wkqj iajNdúl jdhqj, ixhq;sh fjkia jk neúka" C/H wkqmd;h" >k;ajh" iy ;dmckl w.h hk ish,a, m%Nj-mrdh;a; fõ' iajNdúl jdhq ksmojk w.% rgj,a oyfhka ,nd .;a jdhqj,

o¾YSh GCV w.hhka iy tajdfha weia;fïka;= .; ixÑ; iu. j¾;udk ksIamdok wkqmd;slhla

1 jk j.=fjys ±lafõ' iajNdúl jdhqj, o< ;dmckl w.hhka 33'3 isg 41'4 MJ/m3 olajd" 38'64

MJ/m3 fyda 53'90 GJ/t fyda jk uOHkH w.hhla iys;j ráka rgg fjkia jk nj fmkS hhs'

fndaïn le,ßógrhla ;=<GCVys w.h uekSu lrkq ,nk w;r oykfha§ ksmofjk ;dmfhys tu l%shdj,sfhaos msgjk c,jdIamfhys .=ma; ;dmh o wka;¾.; fõ' oykfhka wk;=rej ròd mj;sk

;dm m%udKh u; Y=oaO ;dmckl w.h ^NCV& jdhq iòyd kï GCV w.fhka 90] f,i i,lkq

,nk w;r iajNdúl jdhq iòyd th 48'51 GJ/t l w.hla .kS' ishü fmdis, bkaOkj, GCV

w.hkg jvd iajNdúl jdhqj, GCV w.h by<h' iajNdúl jdhqj oykfha§ ksmofjk c,jdIam ÿï k<h ;=<ska msgfjk l,ays" tys wvx.= .=ma; ;dm m%udKh wvqjk ksid W;amdokh jk ;dm

Yla;sh ksudkh lsÍfï§ NCV fhdod .efka' Y%S ,xldfõ ;ekam;=j,ska ,nd .;a iajNdúl jdhqj, ;dmckl w.hhkao 1 jk j.=fjys wjidk

fma<sfhys olajd ;sfí' PRDSg wkqj foaYSh iajNdúl jdhq idïm,hl GCV w.h" 1000 Btu/scf

5

f,i hdj;ald,skj ks¾Kh fldg ;sfí' fuh fjk;a tallj,ska olajf;d;a th" 37'26 MJ/m3

fyda 51'96 GJ/t fyda 12"410 kcal/kg j,g iudk fõ'

1 jk j.=j( by<u ksIamdok rgj,a 10 ys iajNdúl jdhQkays ;dmckl w.hka

Rg

o< ;dmckl w.h

Y=oaO ;dmckl

w.h

2012 ksIamdokh1

2012 ;ekam;=2

kJ/m3 GJ/t GJ/t Bcm/y Bcm

we't'c 38,080 53.110 47.799 681 9,400

reishdj 38,232 53.322 47.990 656 48,700

lgd¾ 41,400 57.741 51.967 160 25,100

brdkh 39,356 54.890 49.401 158 33,600

lekvdj 38,560 53.780 48.402 157 1,754

fkda¾fõ 39,600 55.230 49.707 115 2,313

Ökh 38,931 54.297 48.867 107 3,100

ijqÈ wrdìh 38,339 53.471 48.124 75 8,200

fko¾,ka;h 33,339 46.498 41.848 80 1,416

bkaÿkSishdj 40,600 56.625 50.962 77 3,001

uOHkH w.h 38,644 53.896 48.507

Y%S ,xldj3 37,255 51.960 46.764

by<u GCV iys; bkaOkh ùug wu;rj" fjk;a ´kEu fmdis, bkaOkhla oykfha§ msg flfrk m%udKhg jvd fndfyda fihska wvq m%udKhla ldnkavfhdlaihsâ úfudapkh lrk iajNdúl jdhQ ishü fmdis, bkaOk w;ßka wvqu ldnka wka;¾.;hla iys; bkaOkhla nj

ms<sf.k ;sfí' ks;r Ndú; flfrk fmdis, bkaOkj, NCV iy tajdfha ;dm n,Yla;s tall

GJ ys wvx.= ldnka wka;¾.;h 2 jk j.=fjys ±lafõ'

;dmYla;s GJ tallhlg by<u ldnka wka;¾.;h .,a w`.=re iòyd we;s nj;a ^25'8 kgC/GJ&"

iajNdúl jdhQ iòyd my<u w.h ^15'3 kgC/GJ& we;s nj jeo.;a h' úúO bkaOk iòyd ;dmYla;s

tallhlg úfudapkh jk ldnkavfhdlaihsâ ^CO2& fuu j.=j u.ska fmkakqï flf¾' foaY.=K

úm¾hdi ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a rduq iïuq;sfhys ÛNFCCC& md¾Yjlrejka ish,a,u ms<smÈkq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= jk" 2009 § iïu; lr.;a fldamkafya.ka iïuq;shg wkqj .,a w`.=rej, isg iajNdúl jdhq olajd udreùu ldnka úfudapkh wvq lsÍu iòyd jk tla Wmdh ud¾.hla fõ' uQ,sl jYfhka fmdis, bkaOk oykh lsÍu u.ska W;amdokh jk yd jdhqf.da,hg úfudapkh

jk yß;d.dr ^GHG& m%udKh wvqlsÍu u.ska isÿfjk f.da,Sh WKqiqu iy foaY.=K úm¾hdi

je<elaùfï j.lSu cd;Ska yg mejÍfï woyi we;sj UNFCCC iïu; lr .kakd ,§' 2jk j.=j( fmdis, bkaOkj, Y=oaO ;dmckl w.hhka iy ldnka wka;¾.;h4

6

bkaOk

Y=oaO ;dmckl w.h ldnka wka;¾.;h

kgC/GJ

CO2

úfudapkhk

g CO2/GJ kcal/kg GJ/t

.efid,Ska 10,700 44.80 18.9 69.3

ãi,a f;,a 10,340 43.29 20.2 74.1

bkaOk f;,a 9,600 40.19 17.2 63.1

N+ñf;,a 10,460 43.79 19.6 71.9

LPG 11,300 47.31 17.2 63.1

kema;d 10,750 45.01 20.0 73.3

iajNdúl jdhQ 11,586 48.51 15.3 56.1

.,alS, iys; .,a w`.=re 5,710 23.91 25.8 94.6

2'2 iajNdúl jdhqj, m%fhdack j¾;udkfha fndfyda rgj, ;dm iy úoHq;a hk fowdldrfhau n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i iy mq`M,a mrdihl jQ ksIamdok l%shdj,s iòyd wuq øjHhla f,i ia-jdhq m%fhdackhg .kq ,efí' fjk;a bkaOk iu. iiòd n,k úg ia-jdhqj, ljr wdldrhl fyda ¥IKhla fkdue;sùu iy ldnkavfhdlaihsâ úfudapkh wvq uÜgul mej;Su fya;= fldgf.k th jvd;au m%sh lrkq ,nk n,Yla;s m%Njh njg m;aù ;sfí' ckm%sh;ajhg m;afjñka ;sfnk tla fhdod.ekSula f,i

m%jdyk fCIa;%fha jdyk n,.ekaùu iòyd iïmSä; iajNdúl jdhqj ^CNG& bkaOkhla f,i

Ndú;hg .ekSu iòyka l< yelsh' j¾I 2012 § 560 EJ (1EJ = 1018J) la jQ f.da,Shj úúO

n,Yla;s m%Njj, ixhq;sh 1 jk rEmfhka fmkakqï flf¾' fuys f;,a iòyd by<u odhl;ajh fmkakqï flfrkafka th m%jdyk wxYhg odhl jk neúks' n,Yla;s wxYh iy l¾udka; wxYh iòyd odhl jk neúka .,a w`.=re fojeks ;ek .kS' by< j¾Ok fõ.hla fmkakqï lrñka 21] l odhl;ajhg ysñlï lshk ia-jdhq f;jeks ;ek .kS'

1 jk rEmh( 2012 § m%Odk n,Yla;s m%Njhkays f.da,Sh iemhqu6 ld¾ñl fhdod.ekSï iy úfYaIfhkau YS; iD;=fõ§ fi!uH l,dmsl rgj, f.dvke.s,s ;dmkh lsÍfï§ fukau úÿ,sh ckkh lsÍfï§ ;dm Yla;s m%Njhla f,i iajNdúl jdhq m%fhdackhg

7

.efka' j¾I 2012 § úÿ,sh W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd úúO n,Yla;s m%Njj, f.da,Sh odhl;ajh 2

jk rEmh u.ska fmkakqï flf¾' úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys 22668 TWh jk uq`M tl;=fjka 40%la

jQ by<u odhl;ajhla ,efnkafka .,a w`.=rej,ska jk w;r 23%l mx.=jla iys;j iajNdúl

jdhq tys fojeks ;ek .kS' c, úÿ,sh 21%l odhl;ajhla iys;j f;jeks ;ekg ysñlï lshhs'

kHIaál n,Yla;sh 11%mx.=jla iòyd ysñlï lshk w;r f;,aj,ska odhl;ajh ,efnkafka

5%la iòyd muKS' fM;sydislj" ;dm n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd ;sfnkakd jQ tlu n,Yla;s m%Njh .,a w`.=re jQ w;r tksidu tys mx.=j by< w.hla f.k we;' .,aa w`.=re fkdue;s Y%S ,xldj jeks rgj,a nyq,ju f;,a Ndú; lrhs' n,Yla;s fCIa;%fha jeäu j¾Ok fõ.hla

fmkakqï lrkafka iajNdúl jdhQ jk w;r 2025 jk úg tys odhl;ajh 25%olajd by< hkq we;ehs úYajdi flf¾¡

2jk rEmh( 2012 j¾Ifha § úÿ,sh W;amdokh lrk n,Yla;s m%Njj, f.da,Sh iemhqu7

fmdfydr" m%;sYS;k øjH" ma,diaála øjH" T!IO iy frÈ ms<s jeks úúOdldr ld¾ñl ksIamdok ieliSu iòyd wuq øjHhla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj fhdod .efka' wefudakshd" fu;fkda,a" ìhqfÜka" Bf;aka" fm%dfmaka iy weisála wï,h jeks mq`M,a mrdihl jQ ridhksl ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd o th fhdod .efka' ùÿre" isfuka;s" .fvd,a" ms`.ka NdKav" W`M" lvodis" wdydr ksIamdok iy fjk;a NdKav fndfyduhla ksIamdokfha§ fhdod.kq ,nk fndfyda ld¾ñl l%shdj,Skays§ r;a lsÍu" úh<Su" ms<siaiSu" fyda Tm±óu hkdÈhg wjYH flfrk ;dmh ,nd .ekSu iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lrkq ,efí' bkaOk-fldaI W;amdokh jeks oEj,g fhdod .kq ,nk yhsv%cka jdhqj iòyd fuh f,fyis m%Njhla o fõ' bkaOk-fldaIj,ska n,.ekafjk jdykj, t;=<u ia-jdhqfj wvx.= óf;aka ixfhda.fhka yhsv%cka ,nd .ekSug yelshdj ;sfí' 2'3 iajNdúl jdhq m%jdykh

1 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ reishdfõ" Ökfha iy brdka we;=¿ ueo fmrÈ. ^ME& yd l=vd m%udKj,ska ol=Kq wdishdfõ" íafÜ%,shdfõ" fkda¾fõys" ol=Kq weußldfõ" iy iuyr wm%sldkq rgj, iajNdúl jdhq ksê yuqfõ' n,Yla;sh W;amdokh flfrk iy mdßfNda.sl NdKav ksIamdokh flfrk ia:dk lrd tys m%Njj, isg iajNdúl jdhq m%jdykh lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h'

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m%Njh iy mdßfNda.slhd tlu uydoaùmhla ;=< msysgk úg f.dv ìu Tiafia iy foaY iSud yryd fmdf<dj hg t,k ,o k< ud¾. Tiafia iajNdúl jdhq m%jdykh lrkq ,efí'

id.r yryd iajNdúl jdhQj m%jdykh lrkq ,nkafka øj wdldrfhks' øùlrKh iòyd -162 oC

olajd iajNdúl jdhqj YS; lsÍulg ,la l< hq;=h' túg tys mßudj uq,a mßudfjka 1$600

fldgila olajd wvq jkafkah iïm%odhdkql+,j" øùlrKh lrk ,o iajNdúl jdhqj ^Liquefied

Natural Gas - LNG& ta iòydu úfYaIfhka ilia lrk ,o jdylj, ^fk!ld& nyd id.r u;ska

lsf,daógr oyia .Kkla olajd m%jdykh lsÍu isÿ flf¾' LNG megùu iy f.dvnEu msKsi

LNG jdyl kex.=rïfmd< m¾hka; fj;g f.k hEug yels jk mßÈ wju jYfhka óg¾ 15la

.eUqrg f;dguqKqj, ilik ,o úfYaI m¾hka; wjYHfõ' idudkH LNG id.r jdylhla 3 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' fïjd >k óg¾ 135"000-250"000 olajd Odß;d mrdihla iys; jk w;r l=vd

jdylhla iòyd o< msßjeh USD 160la muK jehjkq we;'

iq`M mdßfNda.slhskaf.a wjYH;djh imqrd,Su msKsi" LNG mßjD; is,skavrdldr gexlsj,g mqrjk ,ÿj iïu; wä 20 lkafÜk¾ r:hlg .e,fmk mßÈ jdfka iels,a,l nyd ilik ,o moaO;shla l¾udka; u.ska w¨;ska ilia lrkq ,en ;sfí' tjeks lkafÜk¾ f;d.hla iïu; lkafÜk¾ jdylhl nyd id.r Tiafia m%jdykh lrkq ,nk w;r th jrdhla fj; <`.d jQ úg jrdfhys we;s f.dvnEfu myiqlï ud¾.fhka g%la r: ;=<g kxjkq ,efí' tajd mdßfNda.slhska fj; fnod yefrk f;la .nvd fldg ;eîu msKsi wx.khla fj; hjkq ,efí' ful, jdKsc uÜgñka fujeks l%shdms<sfj<la ilia lrkq ,en we;s w;r tu.ska úhoï wêl m¾hka; Ndú;h wvq fjñka mj;S8' mdßfNda.sl wx.kfha§ wu;r lkafÜkrhla ;eîu iòyd bvlv ,nd foñka .nvd moaO;shla f,i l%shd l< yels fõÈldjla u;g lkafÜkrh udre lsrSu isÿflf¾' iajNdúl jdhqj wvq mSvk ;;aj hgf;a mdßfNda.slhska" l=vd n,Yla;s hkaf;%damlrK iys; ia:dkhla" l¾udka; Yd,djla" fyda fydag,hla fyda ksjdi ixlS¾Khla fj; f.k hEu msKsi jdhqj k< moaO;shla fj;g f.k hEu iòyd u.ska iajNdúl jdhqj øj ;;ajfha isg jdhq ;;ajhg m<uqj yrjkq ,efí' fï

iòyd øjh jdhqj njg yrjk tallhla fhdod .efka' jdykj,g iemhSu iòyd CNG f,i jdhqj iïmdokh l< hq;=j ;sfnk wjia:dj,§ jdhqj iïmSvkhlg ,lalr ud¾. fomi msysá bkaOky,a fj;g nõir u.ska m%jdyKh lrkq ,efí'

flá ÿr m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd úl,am folla ;sfí' tkï" CNG f,i fyda LNG f,ih' m<uq

úl,amfhys" jdhqj iïmSvkhlg ,la lrk ,ÿj CNG is,skavrj,g mqrjd uydud¾. fyda ÿïßh

fyda Tiafia m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd lkafÜkrj,g wiqrkq ,efí' uydud¾. Tiafia CNG m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kq ,nk lkafÜkrhla 4 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' fuu lkafÜkr wêl mSvk iy .eàïj,g Tfrd;a;= fok wdldrhg ;kd we;'

fojks úl,amfhys nõir u.ska uydud¾.h fyda ÿïßh fyda Tiafia LNG m%jdykh lrkq ,efí'

k< ud¾. Tiafia f.k hEu fyda CNG jdylj,g fyda úl,amhla f,i mdß fNda.slhska fj;

iajNdúl jdhqj iemhSu fuu.ska isÿ flf¾' CNGj, fuka 2'4 .=Khl Yla;s >k;ajhla

LNGj, wka;¾.; jk w;r iudk Yla;s m%udKhl CNG .nvd lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk

bv m%udKfhka 29] la muK jk bvm%udKhla LNG iòyd m%udKj;a fõ' tksid" iajNdúl

jdhqj LNG f,i m%jdykh lsÍu CNG f,i m%jdykh lsÍug jvd wd¾Ól jYfhka ,dnodhS fõ' mdßfNda.slhska iòyd fláÿrlg m%jdykh lsÍu msKsi lkafÜk¾ msrùu Wfoid iq`M-

mßudKfhka LNG ksIamdokh lsÍug Ndú; l< yels l=vd øùlrK WmlrK ful, ;sfí9'

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3 jk rEmh( id.rh Tiafia LNG m%jdykh

lrkq ,nk fk!ldjla 4 jk rEmh( CNG fláÿrlg m%jdykh

lsÍug fhdod .kakd lkafÜkrhla is,skavrdldr gexlsj,g LNG mqrjd miqj tajd iïu; wä 20 lkafÜkrj, wiqrd wdkhk lrk wjia:dj,os tu lkafÜkrhu mdrsfNda.slhdf. mrsY%h fj; m%jdyKh l< yel' l¾udka;Yd,d-j, ia:dms; lr we;s úÿ,s ckl hka;% fukau ;dm ckl WmlrK l%shdlrùug wjYH jdhqj

LNG f,i tu mrsY%h fj; fufia iemhsh yel' mdrsfNda.slhska fj; fnod yerSug fmr LNG

.nvd lr ;nd .ekSug Ndú;d flfrk ia:dkhla 5 jeks rEmfhka oelafõ' jdykj,g iemhSu

i|yd jdfka iels,a,l nyd m%jdyKh lrkq ,nk LNG wvx.= .nvd gexlshla m%jdyKh lrk wkaou 6 jeks rEmfhka oelafõ'

5 jeks rEmh( fnodyerSug fmr LNG .nvd

lr we;s wkaou 6 jeks rEmh( LNGm%jdykh iòyd fhdod

.kq ,nk g%la r: ,xldj ;=,ska ,nd .kakd jdhqj rg ;=, fnod yerSu i|yd úl,am ;=kla we;' tajd kï k<

moaO;shlska" CNG f,i g%la r:j,ska iy LNG f,i g%la r:j,ska jYfhks' tA tla tla l%ufhys jdis fukau wjdis o we;' k< t,Sug úYd, msrsjehla wjYH jqjo kv;a;= iy l%shdlrùï wdoS

mqkrdj¾;k jeh wvq ksid os.= ld,Skj k< t,Su jvd jdisodhl fõ' wfkla w;g CNG fyda

LNG fyda f,i g%la r:j,ska m%jdyKh i|yd uQ,sl jeä msrsjehg wu;rj bkaOk iy fiajl fõ;k wdoshg wjYH mqkrdj¾;k uQ,H jeäfhka jeh fõ'

iïmdokh iòyd wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï w;r CNG iòyd kï iïmSvk tallhla o

LNG iòyd kï øùlrK myiqlï o we;=<;a jkq we;' j¾;udkfha§" f;d. jYfhka fnod yeÍu

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iòyd m%jdykh lsÍu fukau È.=-ÿr g%lar: iy niar: m%jdykh iòyd fhdod .ekSu msKsi o

jvd m%shlrk bkaOkhla f,i LNG ye`Èkaúh yelsh' iuyr wjia:dj,os" jdhQ is,skavr wvx.= lkafÜkrhu g%la r:fhka fjka lr mdßfNda.slhska w;r jdhqj fnodyeÍfï ia:dkhla f,i o

lkafÜkrhu Ndú;d l< yelsh' LNG jdhqj njg m;alsÍfuka wk;=rej CNG r:jdykj,g ,nd §u msKsi fnodyeÍfï tall fj; iemhSu iòyd nd¾ 250la ;rï jk by< mSvkhlg iïmSvkh lsÍug yels iïmSvl fj; iemhSuo fuys,d isÿ l< yelsh' iajNdúl jdhqj f.k hk k< ud¾. iòyd wêl msßjehla ±Íug isÿfõ' íafÜ%,shdfõ jdhq mßjyKh ms<snòj fkdfndaod m< flreKq m%ldYkhl ls'ó'1000lg jvd wvq ÿrla iòyd ls'ó'

w`.,lg USD 42"000 - 50"000 olajd mrdihl m%d.aOk úhoula ±Íug isÿ jk nj fmkajd §

we;'10 óg wu;rj" m%d.aOk fkdjk úhou lsf,daógrhla iòyd USD 18"000la muK jk njo fmkajd § we;' idudkHfhka È.= ÿrla Tiafia jdhqj mßjyKh lrkq ,nkafka nd¾ 25-100 olajd mSvkhla hgf;ah' by< ñ, wkqmd;sl ie,ls,a,g .;a úg" ls'ó' 100l ÿrla w`.,a 24l úIalïNh

iys; k< ud¾.hlska f.k hEu iòyd ta wkqj msßjeh USD ñ,shk 120la jkq we;' Èkla ;=< wfmaCIs; jdhq mßudj m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk k< ud¾.fha m%udKh

;SrKh l< hq;=j we;' jirlg idêl m%udKh 15-30 Bcm olajd bvlv i,iñka úYd, úIalïNhlska hq;a ^w`.,a 46-60& k< ud¾.hla È. ÿrla Tiafia t<Su iòyd isÿ l< hq;= wdfhdackh f.da,Shj" j¾;udkfha" lsf,daóg¾ 1000la iòyd fvd,¾ ì,shk 1-1'5la w;r w.hla

.kS' fuh lsf,daóg¾ w`.,lg USD 25"000 la muK jkq we;11¡ ,xldfõ§ kï" m%Odk k.r yereKq fldg uq`M rgu wdjrKh flfrk mßÈ k< ud¾. cd,hla ilia lsÍu wmyiq ld¾hHla jkq we;' rfÜ ishü m%foaY wdjrKh flfrk mßÈ wêfõ.S ud¾. ;ekSfï rcfha jevigyk;a iu." wêfõ.S ud¾. iòyd fjka lrk ,o N+ñh Tiafia iajNdúl jdhqj f.k hk k< ud¾. t,Su iòyd wjYH flfrk bv m%udKh ,nd.; yelsh'

flfiafj;;a" k< ud¾. cd,hlg jvd furgg iqÿiq úl,amh jkafka" CNG f,i fyda LNG

f,i fyda jdhqj fnod yeÍfï uOHia:dk fj; f.khEuhs' CNG iy LNG f,i m%jdykh lsÍï

w;r jdis fukau wjdiso ;sfí' CNG iòyd idudkHfhka nd¾ 200-275 la ;rï jk by< mSvkhla iys;j jdhqj .nvd lsÍu isÿ l< hq;= nj;a" tksidu WÉp wd;kH Yla;shla iys; n/;s gexls wjYH jk nj;a fuys,d iòyka l< hq;=h' wvq .=Kd;aulNdjhlska hq;a øjH fhdod gexls ilia lsÍu fya;= fldgf.k uE;l§ mdlsia;dkfha yÈis wk;=re fndfydauhla isÿ jQjdfia tf,i wvq .=Kd;aulNdjhlska hq;a øjH gexls ilia lsÍu iòyd fhdod .ekSu yÈis wk;=rej,g iy tu.ska ñhhk fyda ;=jd, ,enQjka úYd, ixLHdjla ìyslsÍug fya;=jkq we;'12

wfkla w;g" LNG iòyd tajd m%jdykh lrkq ,nk r:j, fukau fnodyeÍfï uOHia:dkj,o øùlrK WmlrK iy .nvdlsÍfï gexls ia:dms; lsÍu wjYH flfrkq we;' øj jdhqfjys

jdIamSlrKh wju uÜgul ;nd .ekSu msKsi øjh -162 oC WIaK;ajhl mj;ajd .ekSu Wfoid

fïjd ukd f,i ;dm mßjrKhlg ,lafldg ;sìh hq;=h' LNG idudkHfhka nd¾ 3 isg 10 olajd jk mSvkhla hgf;a .nvd flf¾' lkafÜkrj,g ydksùu iy tu.ska ck;dj

wk;=rej,g ,laùu je<elaùu iòyd CNG iy LNG m%jdykh lrkq ,nk r:jdyk úfYaI wdrCIs; wx. iys;j ksIamdokh l< hq;=fõ' njqi¾ u.ska Lksc bkaOk uydud¾. Tiafia

m%jdykh lsÍu ;rï lkafÜk¾ g%la r: u.ska CNG fyda LNG fyda m%jdykh lsÍu wjodkï fkdjk nj fuys,d iòyka l< hq;=h'

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2'4 Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhQ iq,n;djh

,xldfjka oekg fidhd f.k ;sfnk jdhq ksêfhka j¾I 2018 jk úg Èklg 70 Mcf YS>%;djhlska iajNdúl jdhq jdKsc ksIamdokh wdrïN lr j¾I 2021 § Èklg >k wä ñ,shk

^Mcf/d& 140 olajd;a j¾I 2023 § Èklg 210 Mcf olajd;a ksIamdokh mq`M,a lsÍfï yelshdj we;s njg wOHhk lKavdhug ±kqj;a flreKs' tfyhska" tksid ia-jdhq mßfNdackh fuu iemhqï ld,rduqjg .e,fmk wdldrhg ie,iqï lsÍu fuys§ jeo.;afõ'

m<uq wÈhr iòyd jvd;a meyeÈ,s f;aÍu f,i ixhqla; pl% jdhQ g¾nhsk ^CCGT& n,.dr ;%s;ajh ia-jdhq u.ska l%shdlrúh yels ;;ajhg mßj¾;kh lsÍu ±laúh yelsh' fï w;ßka tla n,d.drhla ^300 MW& flrj,msáfhys o b;sß fol ^165¬163 MW& le,Ks;siai ixlS¾Kfha o

msysgqjd ;sfí' Wmrsu ;;aj hgf;a l%shd;aul jk úg fulS CCGT n,d.dr ;=k n,.ekaùug

Èklg ia-jdhqj 93 Mcf l b,aüla mj;S' fl,jrmsáfhys we;s n,d.drh iy le,Ks;siai

n,d.dr oaú;ajh fj; ia-jdhqj f.k hEu iòyd fl,jrmsáh CST isg k< ud¾.hla t,d .; yelsh'

Èklg 210 Mcf lg tyd ksIamdokh mq`M,a lsÍfï yelshdj iu. iajNdúl jdhq iemhSug wfmalaIdjla iys; mdßfNda.slhska ms<snò wOHhkh lsÍug iy tajd m%uqL;dlrKh isÿ lsÍu w;HjYHfõ' idlÉPdfõ wjika Nd.fha§ n,Yla;s b,a¨ï wxY ms<snò mÍCId lsÍfuka wk;=rej fuh ie,eiau l%shd;aul l< hq;=h' fï w;r mdßfNda.slhska fj; jdhqj fnod yeÍu msKsi fhdod .; yels l%ufõo ms<snòj o wOHhkh l< hq;=h' fuys,d ie,lsh yels mdßfNda.slhska f,i úÿ,s n,d.dr" m%jdyk m¾hka;" uyd l¾udka;Yd,d" úYd, fydag," ld¾ñl ckmo iy kd.ßl ksjdi ixlS¾K ±laúh yelsh'

2'5 iajNdúl jdhqjøj njg m;a lsÍu mdßfNda.sl uOHia:dk fj; iajNdúl jdhqj fnod yeÍu iòyd myiqfjka m%jdykh l< yels fjk;a øjhla njg jdhqj mßj¾;kh lsÍu isõfjks úl,amhla f,i ie<lsh yelsh' fndfydauhla wfmaCIl øj fuys§ i,ld ne,sh yels jQjo WÑ;u øjh jkafka vhsó;hs,a B;¾

^DME& fõ' fuhg" ãi,a iy LPGj,g iudk ,CIK ;sfnk w;r iq`M úlrKhlg ,la lsÍu

u.ska by; lS bkaOk iòyd wdfoaYl f,i fhdod .ekSfï yelshdj we;' DMEj, ,CIK iy fjk;a bkaOkj, uQ,sl ,CIK 3 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' ;j;a úl,amhla kï fu;fkda,a njg mßj¾;kh lsÍuhs'

iajNdúl jdhqj DME njg mßj¾;kh lsÍfuka" iïmSvkhg ,la fkdlr fyda øùlrKh fkdlr fyda iajNdúl jdhq wdldrhgu m%jdykh lsÍu yd ne`ÿKq .eg¨ u.yrjd .ekSug fya;=jkq we;' l%shdj,sh wdrïN flfrkafka" iajNdúl jdhqj w¾O oykhg ,lalr m%Odk

jYfhka yhsv%cka ^H2& iy ldnka fudfkdlaihsâ ^CO&j,ska iukaú; jk iska.Eia jdhqjg

fmr<Su iu.sks' fojkqj fuu jdhQka fu;fkda,a ^CH3OH& njg ridhkslj ixYaf,aIKh lrkq

,efí' ó <`. wÈhf¾§ fu;fkda,a c,úÉfþokhlg ,la lrñka vhsó;hs,a-B;¾ ^DME&

^CH3OCH3& ksIamdokh flf¾' úfYaI W;afm%arlhla ^fj<ò ysñlï iys;& Ndú; lsÍu u.ska

fu;fkda,a ksIamdokh u.yer iDcqju DME ksIamdokh lsÍug o yelshdj ;sfí'

DME hkq idudkH mSvkh iy WIaK;ajh hgf;a § jdhqjla jYfhka mj;skakls' iq`M mSvkhla

hgf;a øj njg m;a l< yelsh' túg th m%jdykh myiq lrjñka" LPG iu. l< wdldrhg

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is,skavrj,g msrùu o isÿ l< yelsh' flfiafj;;a DME njg ia-jdhqj mßj¾;kh lsÍfï§ hï

wdldrhl Yla;s ydkshla isÿfõ' ia-jdhqj u.ska DME ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk

;dCIKh ixj¾Okh lsÍu foaYShjo isÿ l< yelsh' ffcjialkaOh o DME njg mßj¾;kh lsÍu iòyd ;dCIKh Ndú; lsÍug túg yelshdj ,efnkq we;' fufia lsÍfï § wdydr msiSu iòyd Ndú; flfrk ffcjialkaOj, ld¾hCIu;djh 10] isg 40] muK olajd by< kexùug iy Ndú; lrkakka yg myiqjla we;s lsÍu" .Dyia; ¥IKh bj;a lsÍu hkd§ m%;s,dN o w;am;a lr .ekSug o yelsjkq we;'

3 jk j.=j( vhsó;hs,a-B;¾j, ^DME& uQ,sl ,CIK

,CIKh DME LNG LPG ãi,a

;dmdxlh oC -25 -162 -42 180-360

;dmckl w.h kcal/kg 6"900 12"500 11"000 10"500

úYsIag .=re;ajh 0'73 - 0'49 0'845

Êj,k wxlh oC 235 630 500 250

iaftdagk iSudj ] 3-17 5-15 2-9 1-7 iSfÜka wxlh 55-60 - 5 40-55

DME Ndú; lsÍfï§ ie,ls,a,g .; hq;= m%Odk lreKq folla ;sfí' m<uqjekak kï" wvq

Yla;sckl w.h - ia-jdhqj iòyd th 6"900 kcal/kg jk w;r ãi,a f;,a iòyd th 10"500

kcal/kg jkafkah' tkï" DMEj,ska Odjkh jk jdykhla iudk ÿrla wdjrKh lsÍu msKsi

ãi,a fuka 1'5l .=Khla n/;s DME f.k hd hq;=ùuhs' fojekak kï" iSfÜka wxlh ãi,aj,

tu w.hg iudk ùu" tkï" iïmSvkhg ,la flfrk úg" iajhx-Êj,kh ùfï ,CIKh DME i;=ùu iy tfyhska iïmSvl oyktkaðkaj, Ndú;h iòyd th iqÿiq ùuhs'

ãi,a f;,a fjkqjg jdyk iòyd úfYaIfhka nr jdyk iòyd DME bkaOkhla f,i Ndú; lsÍfï§ ¥Ilj, wvq úfudapk uÜgï fya;= fldg f.k hqfrdamSh rgj, th ckm%sh;ajhg

m;afjñka mj;S' LPG fjkqjg .Dyia: wdydr msiSfï§ Ndú; lrk úg § mjd" ±,s" yhsfv%dldnk" wxY=uh øjH hkdÈfhka f;drj" .Dyia:uh ¥IKhla we;s fkdlr ks,a ±,a,la iys;j ±ùu

isÿfõ' iajNdúl jdhqj,ska DME ksmoùu fuu jd¾;dfõ miq wjia:djl ;jÿrg;a idlÉPd flf¾'

iajNdúl jdhqj" ãi,a f;,a iy LPG jeks Lksc f;,a bkaOk njg fmr,Su ;j;a úl,amhls' .,a w`.=rej,§ fukau jdhqj,ska fujeks mßj¾;k isÿlsÍu iòyd ;dCIKh ol=Kq wm%sldfõ idfid,ays ±kgu;a ;sfnk nj iòyka l< hq;=h13' rg ;=< Lksc f;,a fkdue;sùu fya;= fldgf.k" ol=Kq wm%ssldj jdyk bkaOkhla f,i .,a w`.=re iy iajNdúl jdhq iïm;a Ndú;d lsÍu Wfoid fuu ;dCIKh fhdod .kS' 2'6 wdrCIl mshjrj,a jdhqj ldkaÿùul § fmdf<dj uÜgug wdikakj ròd mj;sk iy msmsÍfï wjodkula fmkakqï

lrk LPG fuka fkdj" iajNdúl jdhqj jd;hg jvd ieye,a¨ jk neúka ldkaÿùul§ YS>% úisÍhdula isÿfõ' hï mqoa.,fhla uq`M;ekaf.hg we;=,a ù úÿ,s n,anhl iaúph ±,aùfï§ bka

mek k.sk .sks mq<s`.=j u.ska LPG oykh ùu lrK fldg f.k tjeks msmsÍï isÿfõ' wLKav ldkaÿùula iy ±,afjk .sks ±,a,la ta u;g f.k fkdtkafka kï ñi iajNdúl jdhqj wdY%fhka

13

by; iòyka isoaêh jeks isÿùï isÿ fkdfõ' fl;rï úr, jQjo tjeks wjia:d w;S;fha§ jd¾;d ù ;sfnk w;r wdikak;u isÿùu 2014'06'27 Èk bkaÈhdfõ wdkaød m%foaYfha .Eia k<hla msmsÍfuka yg.;a .skakla u.ska ñksiqka 14la ñh hEu iy 20 fofkl= ;=jd, ,eîu fmkajd Èh yelsh'14 fuh" nd,dêldÍka úiska ldkaÿjk k< ud¾. wëCIKh lsÍu iy ta iòyd mQ¾j Wmdhhka .ekSu iòyd mQ¾j iQodkï ùula isÿ lr fkdue;s nj meyeÈ,sj fmkakqï flfrk wjia:djls' wo jk úg" tu ia:dkfhysu iy ÿria:j hk fowdldrhgu l%shd flfrk jdhq ldkaÿùï wkdjrKh lrkq ,nk ixlS¾K moaO;s ;sfnk w;r tjeks moaO;s jdhq f.k hk k< ;=< ia:dms; lsÍu jeo.;a mshjrla f,i iòyka l< hq;=h' ldurhla ;=< jdhqj tla /ia jQ wjia:djl§ mjd" th .sks .kakd iq`M jkafka jdhqjg-jd;h ñY%Kh 5-15] ;=< ròd mj;skafka kï muKs' ñY%Kh 5]g jvd wvq kï" Êj,kh ùug ;rï jdhq m%udKhla tys fkdue;s jk w;r ñY%Kh 15]g jeä wjia:dj, jdhq oykh iòyd m%udKj;a

;rfï Tlaiscka fkdue;sfõ' jdhqf.da,Sh mSvkh hgf;a tys Êj,k WIaK;ajh 538oC jk w;r

th Lksc bkaOkj, tlS WIaK;ajhg jvd by< w.hla .kS' tksid" øj bkaOkj,g jvd ia-jdhqj b;du;a wdrCIdldÍ nj meyeÈ,sh' mdßfNda.slhska fj; ia-jdhqj fnod yefrk úg ldkaÿùï y`ÿkd.ekSu ;SrKh lsÍu iòyd thg wxY=ud;% .kaOhla tl;= lrkq ,efí' iajNdúl jdhq l¾udka;h ;=< k< ud¾. Tiafia jdhq

m%jdykh iy LNG uqyqÿ ud¾. Tiafia jdhq m%jdykh o bgq lrkq ,nkafka lsishï ldkaÿùula iy yÈis wk;=rla je<elaùfï wruqK we;sj iïu; m%ñ;Skag wkql+, ;on, wdrCIl jevms<sfj<la wkq.ukh lsrSfuka h'

LNG m%jdykh lrkq ,nkakd jQ jir 60lg wêl b;sydih ;=< § m%Odk .Kfha yÈis wk;=rla jd¾;d fkdjqKq ;rïh' isÿ jqKq wk;=re ish,a, l%shd lrejkaf.a w;a je/oafoka isÿ jQ tAjd úh'

iuia;hla f,i" LPG iy .efid,Ska jeks fjk;a Lksc f;,a Ndú;hg jvd iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú;h b;du;a wdrCIdldÍ fõ' flfiafj;;a" foaYSh cd, Tiafia k<ud¾. u.ska mdßfNda.slhd fj; ia-jdhqj f.k hEfï§" ia- jdhqj, we;s wjodkï idOl iy ´kEu jHikldÍ ;;ajhla wju lsÍu iòyd ms<smeÈh hq;= wdrCIdldÍ l%u iy mshjr ms<snòj uyck;dj ±kqj;a lsÍfï jevigyka meje;aùu w;HjYH fõ' fuu ld¾hfha kshef,kakka yg wkq.ukh lsÍu iòyd fufyhqï ks¾Kdhl iy Í;s yd úêp¾hd ilia lsÍug n,dêldÍka yg isÿ jkq we;' iajNdúl jdhq fnod yeÍfï moaO;s ia:dmkh lrk iy kv;a;= lrk ishü mqoa.,hska yg hduk wêldÍka u.ska n,m;% ,nd §uo w;HjYH lreKls'

14

3' Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s iemhqu 3'1 iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iemhqu wm rfÜ j¾;udk n,Yla;s wjYH;djh imqrd,kafka jeä jYfhka ffcjialkaOh" Lksc f;,a" c, úÿ,sh iy .,a w`.=re jk w;r iq`M jYfhka iïm%odhl fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s

^NCRE& m%Nj u.sks' uq`M n,Yla;s wjYH;djfhka 45-50]lau muK iòyd ffcjialkaOh odhl jk w;r" fojkqj by<u odhl;ajhla Lksc f;,a u.ska iemfha' iïmQ¾K úÿ,sh W;amdokfhka 30-50] ;a w;r m%udKhlg c, úÿ,sh odhl jk kuqÿ th iuia; n,Yla;s iemhqug odhl jkafka iq`M jYfhks' tu odhl;ajh fmdÿ n,Yla;s tallhla njg úoHq;a n,Yla;s tallh mßj¾;kh flfrk wdldrh u; ròd mj;S ^1 jk rduqj n,kak&' miq.sh jir lsysmh ;=<" iq<x

n,h" iQ¾h Yla;sh" l=vd-c, úÿ,s n,h" iy orj,ska ,efnk n,Yla;sh jeks NCRE m%Njj,ska ,efnk odhl;ajh ie,lsh hq;= wdldrfhka j¾Okh ù ;sfí'

wm rfÜ iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iemhqu ^TPES& .Kkh lsÍug fhdod .kq ,nk bkaOkj,

;dmckl w.hhka Y%S ,xld iqks;H n, wêldßfha ^SLSEA& m%ldYkj,ska ,nd f.k we;'

flfiafj;;a" ,xld Lksc f;,a ixia:dfõ ^CPC& jd¾;dj, iy cd;sl yß;d.dr jdhq ^GHG& bkafjkagß ieliSu iòyd ks¾Kdhl iïmdokh lrk foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò wka;¾ rdcH

uvq,a, ÎPCC& imhd ;sfnk w.hhkag fïjd ksYaÑ;ju iudk fkdfõ' nyq,j fhdod .kq ,nk bkaOk iòyd fuu uQ,dY%hkaf.ka ,nd .;a fulS úúO w.hhka 4jk j.=fjys olajd we;' fuu

fjkialï" GHG bkafjkagßo we;=,;aj miqj isÿ flfrkakd jQ ishü weia;fïka;=j, m%fCIamKh jk w.hkaj, 2-4] la muK wúksYaÑ;;djhlg fya;= fõ'

1jk rduqj( n,Yla;s iïmdokfhys,d Ndú; jk fmdÿ tall n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd Ndú; flfrk úúO bkaOkj, m%udK m%ldYhg m;a flfrkqfha tajdfha uQ,sl tall u.ska jk w;r tajd iïmsKavkh fldg ±laùu iòyd tajdg wod< ;dm m%udKh u; mokïj fmdÿ tallhla ilia fldg .ekSu wjYHfõ'

idudkHfhka ;dm Yla;s tallh jk cQ,a ^J& ^cQ,a 4'1868 = le,ß1& fulS fmdÿ tallh f,i i,lkq ,efí' iEu bkaOkhlgu - jdhquh" øjuh" iy >k - i;=j úYsIag

;dmckl w.hhla we;s w;r jeh jQ iEu bkaOkhlu wvx.= ;dm Yla;sh tys nr [fgdka

^t& j,ska] thg wod< ;dmckl w.hfhka ^GJ/t& .=K lsÍfuka ,nd .kS' ;dm n,d.drj,ska úÿ,sn,h ,nd .kakd wjia:dj,§ tys Yla;s m%udKh" oykh jk

bkaOkj, ;sfnk ;dm Yla;sh f,i i,lkq ,efí' c, úÿ,s n,d.drj,ska fyda NCRE m%Njj,ska fyda ckkh flfrk úÿ,sn,h mßj¾;kh lsÍfï§ ms<s.kq ,nk cd;Hka;r

iïuq;sh jkafka cQ,a iy fjdÜj, w;r jQ iDcq iudk;djh" tkï cQ,a ^J&1 = fjdÜ

;;amr 1 fyj;a fjdÜ meh ^Wh& 1 = cQ,a ^J& 3"600 hkak Ndú; lsÍuhs' tkuqÿ Y%S ,xldfõ c, úÿ,sfhka ksmojk ,o Yla;s m%udKhg iudk Yla;s m%udKhla 36] l ld¾hCIu;djhla iys;j ;dm n,d.drhlska ckkh lsÍfïoS jeh jkq ,nk bkaOkj, wvx.= Yla;s m%udKh fj; mokï jQ idOlhla foaYSh úÿ,s n,OdrSka úiska Ndú; lrkq ,efí' fuu l%uh iDcq iul l%uh u.ska ,nd.kakd m%udKh fuka 2'79 l .=Khl Yla;s m%udKhla c, úÿ,sh iòyd ,ndfohs' tys m%;sM,hla f,i" wmf.a Wmfhda.S;djhka u.ska imhkq ,nk Yla;s mßfNdack o;a; c, úÿ,sh iòyd WoaOukh jQ odhl;ajhla iy imhk ,o iuia; Yla;s m%udKh iòyd WoaOukh jQ w.hhla o fmkakqï lrhs'

15

4 jk j.=j( nyq,j Ndú; lrk bkaOkj, Y=oaO ;dmckl w.hhka

bkaOkh

Y=oaO ;dmckl w.h kcal/kg

SEA15

CPC16

IPCC17

ãi,a 10"500 10"180 10"350 .efid,Ska 10"900 10"470 10"700 N+ñf;,a 10"500 10"390 10"690

LPG 10"600 10"960 11"300

kema;d 10"900 10"720 10"750 oeú$ner f;,a 9"800 9"830 9"600

c, úÿ,s ixrplh iòyd WoaOukhjQ w.hhla imhk f;,a wdfoaYl idOlh SLSEA iy CEB

hk wdh;k folu Ndú; lrk neúka Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s mrsfNdackfhys ;;ajh wfkla rgj,a iu. ixikaokh lsÍfï§ wjHdc fkdjk iajNdjhla fmkakqï lrhs' tlai;a cd;Skaf.a

ixj¾Okh jevigyk ÛNDP&" cd;Hka;r n,Yla;s ksfhdað;dh;kh ÎEA&" wdishd Ydka;slr

wd¾Ól yd idudchSh fldñiu ÊSCAP& iy wdishdkq ixj¾Okh nexl=j ÂDB& jeks cd;Hka;r ixúOdk u.ska mj;ajdf.k hkq ,nk n,Yla;s o;a; mdolj, Y%S ,xldj iòyd imhd ;sfnk w.hhka fuu WoaOukhjQ w.hhka iu. .e,mSula fkdue;s nj o fmfka' ta

flfiafj;;a" fuu jd¾;dfõ" SLSEA iy CEB w.hhka iu. wkql+, ùu iòyd Tjqka úiska

Ndú; lrkq ,nk f;,a wdfoaYl idOlh wka;¾.; fldg ;sfí' SLSEA o;a;mdolfhys imhd

we;s o;a; Ndú; lrñka 2010-2012 ld,mßÉfþoh ;=< fmgd-cQ,aj,ska ^1 PJ = 1015J& m%ldYs;

TPESys idudkH w.hhkg úúO m%Njhkaf.ka ,o odhl;ajh 7 jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

7 jk rEmh( 2010-2012 ld,h ;=< iuia; n,Yla;s iïmdokfhys idudkH w.hka18

fuu ld,h ;=< § wm rfÜ iuia; n,Yla;s wjYH;djfhka 44'3]la ffcjialkaOhkaf.a odhl;ajfhka ,eî we;s w;r Lksc f;,a 43'2]l odhl;ajhla ,nd § ;sfí' 2009 j¾Ifha§ ie,lsh hq;= m%udKhlska furgg y`ÿkajd fok ,o .,a w`.=re u.ska jir 2010-2012 ld,h ;=< 2'5]l odhl;ajhla ,nd § we;' n,Yla;s iïmdokh iòyd c,úÿ,sh 8'4]l odhl;ajhla ,nd § ;sfnk w;r l=vd-c, úÿ,s n,d.dr iy iq<x n,Yla;s n,d.dr b;sß 1'6] iòyd odhl;ajh ,nd § ;sfí'

TPES fj; úúO m%Njj,ska 2003-2012 ld,h ;=< § ,enqKq odhl;ajh 8 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s

w;r fuys§ 2003 j¾Ifha§ TPES" 385 PJ isg 2012 j¾Ifha§ 483 PJ olajd 25] lska by< f.dia

iuia;h = 470 PJ

16

we;s nj fuhska meyeÈ,sfõ' rfÜ ld,.=K rgdj u; ròd mj;sk c, ixrplh 27 PJ isg 50 PJ olajd úp,khla olajd we;' c, ixrplh wvq w.hhla .kakd kshx ld,hkays§ jif¾ Lksc f;,a mßfNdackh by< kxjñka ;dm n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu isÿfõ' wm rfÜ c, úÿ,s n,d.dr fhdackd l%u w;ßka tlla jQ uyje,s jHdmD;sh" jdßc, iïmdokh iòyd o c,h iemhSu o isÿ lrhs' tfyhska" kshx iuhhkays § ;dm n,Yla;sh iòyd jk b,aü by< kxjñka jdßc, wjYH;djh n,Yla;s ckkh wNsnjd hkq we;'

8 jk rEmh( 2003-2012 ld,h ;=< iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s iemhqu19

3'2 ffcjialkaO iemhqu iuia; n,Yla;s iemhqfuys 44]la jQ by<u odhl;ajh ,efnkafka ffcjialkaOj,sks' fuhska jeä m%udKhla ld¾hCIu;djh 10]la ;rï jQ idïm%odhl ,smaj, isÿ flfrk .Dyia: wdydr ieliSu iòyd Ndú; flf¾20' b;sß Yla;sh fuys§ ;dmh f,i wmf;a hhs' n,Yla;s Ndú;fha

jvd ld¾hCIu ffcjialkaO Wÿka fyda LPG Wÿka fhdod .ksñka ld¾hCIu;djfhka by< wdydr msiSfï l%u fhdod .kafka kï iuia; n,Yla;s iïmdokh wvq lr,ñka fuu Yla;skaf.ka jeä m%udKhla b;sß lr .; yels jkq we;' fuys,d iòyka l< yels ;j;a

úl,amhla jkafka fuu jd¾;dfõ uq,ska iòyka lr we;s mßÈ ffcjialkaOh DME njg mßj¾;kh lsÍuhs' úfYaIfhka" fk,k ,o f;a o`M úh<Su iòyd fukau .fvd,a iy W`M jeks l¾udka; iòyd o ffcjialkaOh Ndú; lrkq ,efí' fuu fhdod.ekSïj,§ ld¾hCIu;djh 50]g jvd jeäjkjd úh yel' jk ixrCIK m%Odk ie,iqï jd¾;djg wkqj" 5 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ bkaOkhla f,i ffcjialkaOh jkdka;r iy jkdka;r fkdjk m%Nj hk fo wxYfhkag ,nd .efka' wm rfÜ lDIsld¾ñl wjfYaI iy ±j l¾udka;fha wmøjH tla/ia lrk ,oafoa kï"

tf,i tla /ia flfrk ffcjialkaOh i;=j jd¾Islj 63PJla muK ;dm m%udKhla wvx.= úh yels nj fmf¾rd hkd§ka weia;fïka;= lr ;sfí21' j¾I 2011-20 ld,h iòyd 1995 § isÿ lrk ,o mqfrdal:khg wkqj bkaOk i|yd ,nd .; yels ffcjialkaO m%udK 5 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' j¾I 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< .Dyia: iy l¾udka; wxYhkays ffcjialkaO mßfNdackh 9 jk

rEmfhys olajd we;s w;r" fuu o;a; SLSEA u.ska ilia lrk ,o n,Yla;s ;=,s; m%ldYkfhka ,nd f.k we;' fuys" .Dyia: iy l¾udka; wxYhkays Ndú; flfrk ffcjialkaO m%udK

17

fjka fjkaj iòyka lr ;snqK o fulS weia;fïka;= ilia lsÍfï l%ufõoh imhd fkd;snqKs'

or-bkaOkj,g wu;rj" 2012 j¾Ifha§ 130 kt m%udKhla iSks l¾udka;fhka ckkh jQ Wla frdvq" bkaOkhla f,i Ndú; fldg we;' b;sßjk msÿre iy fnda. wjfYaI we;=,;a lDIsld¾ñl wjfYaI ie,lsh hq;= m%udKhla bkaOk f,i Ndú; fldg ;sfnk w;r tu m%udKh .Kkh lsÍula isÿ fldg ke;'

5 jk j.=j( m%laIsma; bkaOk-oej iq,n;djh22

m%Njh 2011-20 ;=< iq,n;djh

^kt&

SEA u.ska 2012 os isÿ l< weia;fïka;=j

^kt& iajNdúl jkdka;r 760 jk j.d 273 jeú,s fnda. ^fmd,a" rn¾ iy f;a& 10"091 jk l¾udka; wjfYaI 533 uq`M tl;=j 11"657 13"000

9 jk rEmh( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< ffcjialkaO mßfNdackh23,24

3'3 Lksc f;,a iemhqu fndrf;,a iy msßmyÿ lrk ,o ksIamdok Y%S ,xldj úiska j¾;udkfha wdkhkh lrkq ,nhs' j¾I 2012 § wdkhkh lrk ,o m%udKhka 10 jk rEmfhys fmkajd § we;' wm rfÜ Lksc f;,a b,a¨fuka 1$3 la muK fndrf;,a j,ska imqrd .kq ,nk w;r b;sßh flá ld,Sk fldka;%d;a moku u; wdkhkh lrkq ,efí' foaYSh msßmyÿj, fndrf;,a msßmyÿ lsÍu isÿ lrhs' wdkhkh flfrk msßmyÿ ksIamdok w;r iïmQ¾K Lksc f;,a wdkhkfhka 1$3 l ;j;a mx.=jlg ysñlï lshk jdyk ãi,a lemS fmfka' j¾I 2012 ;=< § foaYShj msßmyÿ flfrk ksIamdok iy wdkhkh flfrk ksIamdok 6 jk j.=fjys ±lafõ' oekg mj;sk msßmyÿj, Odß;djh mq`M,alsÍug fyda kj msßmyÿ f.dvke.Sug fyda wjYH;djhla ;sfnk kuqÿ ta iòyd isÿ l< hq;= wdfhdackh b;d by< jk neúka tu ld¾hh l%shd;aul lsÍfuka je<lS we;' msßmyÿ lrk ,o ksIamdok o we;=,;aj Lksc f;,a ksIamdok

18

wdkhkh lsÍu 2012 j¾Ifha§ uq`M wdkhk msrs jefhka 26]la jQ" cd;sl whjehg úYd, nrla f,i fmkajd Èh yelsh25'

10 jk rEmh( 2012 j¾Ih ;=< wdkhkh lrk ,o fmdis, bkaOk

6 jk j.=j( 2012 § foaYShj msßmyÿ iy wdkhkh lrk ,o Lksc f;,a ksIamdok26

ksIamdokh foaYShj msßmyÿ lrk ,o

^kt&

wdkhkh lrk

,o ^kt&

LPG 17'44 192'6

kema;d 70'88 - .efid,Ska 151'57 574'6 ãi,a 394'16 1652'2 wjqgQ¾ 93'16 288'4 N+ñf;,a 74'84 55'0 oeúf;,a 648'41 - bkaOk f;,a - 563'7 fjk;a 30'25 143'5 tl;=j 1480'71 3470'0

3'4 .,a w`.=re oykh

miq.sh oYlh ;=< 25-100 kt mrdihl jQ .,a w`.=re m%udKhla isfuka;s ksIamdokfha § Ndú;hg f.k ;sfí' mq;a;,fï .,a w`.=re úÿ,s n,d.drfha m<uq wjêh 2011 j¾Ifha§ wdrïNùu;a iu.

.,a w`.=re mßfNdackh 2011 § 475 kt isg 2012 § 724 kt olajd by< .sfhah27' fuys f;jeks wÈhr 2014 iema;eïn¾ udifha§ wdrïN flreKs' ngysr fjr<g .,a w`.=re wdkhkh lsÍu .eg¨ fndfyduhla we;s lsÍug fya;= ù we;'

19

fkd.eUqre uqyqo fya;=fjka úYd, .,a w`.=re fk!ldj,g" fjr< wdikakhg m%udKj;a mßÈ f.k taug fkdyelsùu iy ta ksid fjr< fj; m%jdykh lsÍu msKsi n;a;,aj,g megùu wjYHùu '

ksß; È. fudaiu mj;sk udij, uqyqo r`Mùu fya;= fldg f.k jir mqrd fk!ldj, isg n;a;,a fj;g .,a w`.=re m%jdykh lsÍug fkdyelsùu'

fuf,i m%jdykh ÿIalr jk úg tlS ÿIalr;djh u. yrjd .ekSu i|yd .,a w`.=re m%udKj;a f;d. l,a ;nd .nvd lr .ekSu mQ¾j wjYH;djhla njg m;aj we;' wfkl=;a m%Nj iu. ixikaokh lrk úg .,a w`.=re u.ska ksIamdok úhou ,dnodhS uÜgul mj;ajd .ekSug yels jk neúka n,Yla;s ie,iqïlrefjda n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd .,A w`.=re fhdod .ekSug jeä reÑl;ajhla olaj;s' .,a w`.=re" n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd y`ÿkajd§u iudc iy mßißl moku u; uyck;dj úiska isÿlrk ,o úfrdaO;d fya;= fldg f.k oYl lsysmhla m%udo úh' wiQj oYlfha ;%sl=Kdu,fha .=jkaf;dgqm<g wdikak ia:dkhl .,a w`.=re

n,d.drhla ^CPP& bÈlsÍug CEB u.ska ie,iqï ilia lrk ,o w;r úfrdaO;djh;a ksid iy mßißl iy fjk;a idOl fya;= fldg f.k fuu jHdmD;sh l%shdjg kexjQfha ke;'

CEB kej; jrla ol=Kq fjrf<ys .eUqre ia:dkhla jk udje,a, ó<`. ia:dkh f,i f;dard .;a; o uyck úfrdaO;d iy mßißl moku u; jHdmD;sh l%shdjg kexùug fkdyels úh' bka wk;=rej" niakdysr fjrf<ys ia:dk lsysmhlau i,ld ne,Sfuka miqj" fkdfrdÉfpdaf,a ^mq;a;,u& jQ j¾;udk ia:dkh f;dard .kakd ,§' flfiafj;;a" iudchSh iy mßißl moku u; we;s flreKq uyck úfrdaO;d lrK fldg f.k th ia:dms; lsÍu kej; jrla jir .Kkdjla m%udo úh' n,Yla;s n,d.dr o we;=,;aj úYd, jHdmD;s ms<snò mßißl kS;s n,d;aul jQfha 1988 § muK jk w;r tksidu .,a w`.=re u.ska we;s flfrk wêl ¥IKh iòyd wjOdkhla ,nd fkdÿka nj fuys,d iòyka l< hq;=h' 3'5 c, úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh wm rfÜ úÿ,sn, wjYH;djfhka 30-60]la muK imqrd,ñka uOHu l`ÿlrfhka wdrïN ù .,d nisk .x.d fndfydauhl c,h úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lrkq ,nhs' tlsfklg iudka;rj .,d niakd le,Ks .f`.a w;= .x.d folla jk uiafl<sh Tfhys iy flfy,a.uqj Tfhys msysàfï WÉp;aj fjki Wmfhda.s fldgf.k óg jir 60lg muK fmr Y%S ,xldfõ tjlg m%Odk c,úÿ,s n,d.drh bÈlrk ,§' wo jk úg" ,CImdk ixlS¾Kh f,i y`ÿkajkq ,nk m%Odk c,

úÿ,sn,d.dr myla ;sfnk fuu fhdackd l%uh hgf;a" iuia; ia:dms; Odß;dj 335 MWla jQ

w;r 2001 isg 2010 olajd jd¾Islj 1376 GWhl idudkH w.hhla iys; úÿ,s W;amdokhla lr

;snQks28' fuu W;amdokh" ie,iqï lrk ,o iuia; W;amdokh jQ 1"563 GWhka 88]la úh29' fuu

ixlS¾Kfha 35 MWl Odß;djhla iys; wjika n,d.drh ls;=,a.,g wdikak fn%daâ,Ekaâys bÈflfrñka mj;S' ,CImdk ixlS¾Kfhys jQ n,d.dr fndfyduhla jir 50lg muK fmr ia:dms; lr we;s w;r j¾;udkfha tajd m%;sixialrKh flfrñka mj;S' uyje,s .`." j¾I 1970-2000 ld,h w;r;=r § c, úÿ,sn,h ixj¾Okh lsÍu iòyd Wmfhda.S

fldg f.k ;sfí' uyje,s fhdackd l%uh hgf;a 2001-2010 ld,h w;r;=r 1542 GWhl

idudkHhla W;amdokh lrk ,o 810MWl iuia; ia:dms; Odß;djhla iys; m%Odk n,d.dr

yhla ^06& ;sfí' fuh" 2"667 GWhlajQ ie,iqï lrk ,o iuia; ia:dms; W;amdokfhka 58]ls' uyje,s fhdackd l%uh hkq úÿ,sn, W;amdokh iy úh<s l,dmhg jdßc, iïmdokh hk oaú;ajh iòydu c,h iïmdokh flfrk nyqld¾h fhdackd l%uhla nj fuys,d iòyka l< hq;=h'

20

,CImdk ixlS¾Kfhys iy uyje,s fhdackd l%ufhys jQ c, úÿ,s n,d.dr oYl myla ;siafia - mkia .Kkaj, isg wkQ .Kka olajd jQ úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys,d m%Odk m%Nj úh' uyje,s fhdackd l%uh hgf;a oYl lsysmhlg by; f.dvk.k ,o iuyr m%Odk c,dY f,dal nexl= uQ,HdOdr hgf;a m%;sixialrKh flfrñka mj;S' ie,lsh hq;= lreKla jkafka uyje,s

ixlS¾Kfhka ckkh jk úÿ,sh úlsKSfuka CEB úYd, uqo,la Wmhd .kakd kuqÿ tu`.ska imhkq ,nk c,hg fyda tys myiqlï kv;a;= lsÍug fyda lsisÿ uqo,la uyje,s wêldßh fj; fkdf.jk njhs' 3'6 iïm%odhl - fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s iïm;a n,Yla;s wud;HdxYh u.ska 2006 j¾Ifha§ ilia lrk ,o Y%S ,xldfõ cd;sl n,Yla;s m%;sm;a;sh iy l%fudamdhg wkqj j¾I 2015 jk úg iïm%odhl fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh

(NCRE)u.ska cd;sl cd,hlg wju jYfhka 10] l n,Yla;s iïmdokhla lrd <`.d ùug rch

m%hka; oersh hq;= njg m%ldY lr ;sfí30' l=vd mßudK ^<10 MW& c, úÿ,sh" ffcjialkaO" Ôj

jdhqj iy li< wdY%S; úÿ,sn,d.dr" iQ¾h n,Yla;sh" iy iq<x n,Yla;sh NCRE m%Njj,g

wh;afõ' 2013 CEB ixLdk ix.%yhg wkqj j¾I 2013 os mqoa.,sl wxYh iy úÿ,sn, uKav,h

úiska ia:dms; lrk ,o 366 MWla jQ NCRE m%Njj,ska 1"178 GWhl úÿ,s n,Yla;shla W;amdokh jQ w;r th tu jir ;=<oSu W;amdokh lrk ,o iuia; úÿ,s n,Yla;sh jQ 11"962

GWhka 9'85]la úh' fuh cd;sl n,Yla;s m%;sm;a;sfhys iòyka b,lalh jk 10]g iïmQ¾Kfhkau mdfya wdikak ù we;'

NCRE iïm;a ixj¾Okh lsÍu Wfoid iy l¾udka;h hdukh lsÍu Wfoid rch 2007 jif¾

Tlaf;daïn¾ udifha § Y%S ,xld iqks;Hn, wêldßh ^SLSEA& msysgqjkq ,eîh' SLSEA ys ixLHdf,aLkj,g wkqj" wkque;sh ,;a fyda ;djld,slj wkque;sh ,;a fyda ishü n,d.dr wdrïN lrk ,o úg ia:dms; Odß;djhg by; w.h fuka wdikak jYfhka ;=ka .=Khlska by< ±ófï yelshdjla mj;S' n,Yla;s m%;sm;a;sfhys b,lalhg wkql+, fjñka 2015 jk úg ia:dms;

Odß;djfhys uq`M tl;=j 640MWla jk NCRE m%Nj l%shd;aul ;;ajhg m;ajk nj weia;fïka;= fldg we;' wfmaCIs; Odß;djkays ixhq;sh 7 jk j.=fjys olajd ;sfí31'

2 jk rduqj( iïm%odhl fkdjk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s m%Nj

iïm%odhl iy iïm%odhl fkdjk moaO;s hk fowdldrhg mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s m%Njj,g wh;afõ' m<uqj iòyka l< m%Njj,g úYd, c,úÿ,s n,d.dr iy iïm%odhl ffcjialkaO moaO;s we;=,;a jk w;r" fojekakg iQ¾h úlsrK u.ska ^m%ldY-fjda,aàh;d iy iQ¾h ;dm&" iq<x" id.r ^;rx. r<" Woï& fukau ld¾hCIu ffcjialkaO îDcq oykh" jdhqnjg fmr<Su& iy ffcj bkaOk ^t;fkda,a" ffcj ãi,a& moaO;s u.ska

l%shdlrk n,d.dr wh;afõ' .x.dj, wdmod c, jHdmD;s l%shd;aul jk o¾YShj 10 MW

j,g jvd wvq Odß;d iys; l=vd c, úÿ,s n,d.dr moaO;s o NCRE moaO;s hgf;a wka;¾.; fldg ;sfí'

fmdis, bkaOk oykh iy kHIaál bkaOk mßfNdackh mqk¾ckkSh fkdjk n,Yla;s

moaO;sj,g wh;a fõ' NCRE m%Nj w;ßka c, úÿ,s moaO;s ^j¾Idfjka mqk¾ckkh flfrk& iy ffcjialkaO ^kej; isgqùfuka mqk¾ckkh flfrk& muKla mqk¾ckkSh jk w;r wfkla ish,a, mDÓú moaO;sh ieuúgu l%shdlÍ ;;ajfha mj;skq we;' tfyhska fïjd CIh fkdjk m%Nj f,i j¾.SlrKh l< yels w;r mqk¾ckkSh fkdjk m%Nj

CIhjk m%Nj jkafkah' flfiafj;;a" iQ¾h PV" iq<`." iy l=vd c, úÿ,s n,d.drj, ms<sfj<ska" j,dl=`M jeiau" iq<x ;;ajhka" j¾Idfjys isÿjk iajdNdúl úp,;djhka lrK fldg f.k iEu wjia:djl§u wjYH m%udKhg n,Yla;sh iemhSug yelshdjla fkdue;s jkq we;'

21

j¾;udkfha§ 10MW olajd jQ Odß;djhla iys; NCRE m%Nj ixj¾Okh lsÍu iy fufyhùu mqoa.,sl wxYh fj; mjrd we;' j¾I 1997-2002 ld,h ;=< § ia:dms; n,Yla;s fiajd fnodyeÍï ÊSD& kï jQ m<uq jHdmD;shla iy 2002-2007 ld,h ;=< § ia:dms; .%dóh wd¾Ól ixj¾Okh iòyd mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh ^RERED& kï jQ fojeks jHdmD;shla o jYfhka .af,dan,a tkajh¾ukag,a *eis,sá ^GEF&32 uQ,HdOdr imhk ,o jHdmD;s folla Y%S ,xldfõ mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s l¾udka;h iòyd uQ,sl .dul n,h iemhSh'

7 jk j.=j( wdrïN lrk ,o iy wdrïN lsÍug kshñ; NCRE jHdmD;s

ldKavh ia:dms; Odß;djh MW 2013 jk úg

wdrïN jQ 2015 jk úg wfmaCIs;

wjirm;a ,nd ÿka

;djld,sl wkque;sh

l=vd c, úÿ,s n,d.dr 243 350 190 98 iq<x n,Yla;sh 73 230 32 20 ffcjialkaO$ li< 16'5 40 100 45

iQ¾h PV 1'4 30 10 72

uq`M tl;=j 334 650 332 235

22

4' Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s b,aü

wd¾Ólh" lDIsl¾uh" .Dyia: yd jdKsc" l¾udka;" m%jdykh iy úÿ,sn,h wxY ish,af,ys .dul n,h jkafka n,Yla;shhs' úYajdiodhl iy ±ßh yels wdldrhlg m%Odk n,Yla;sh iemhsh yels kï muKla fulS ishü wxY ld¾hCIuj iy wd¾Ól jYfhka mdvq fkdjk wdldrhlg l%shd;aul l< yelsfõ' ffcjialkaOh nyq, f,i .Dyia: uÜgfï iy l¾udka;j, ;dmYla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kakd w;r Lksc f;,a" m%jdyk wxYfhys pd,l n,h ckkhg iy yqud,$jdhQ g¾nhsk u.ska iy ãi,a tkaðka u.ska l%shd lrk ;dm úÿ,s n,d.dr

l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kq ,efí' bkaOk f;,a" øj fmfg%da,shï jdhq ^LPG&" iy N+ñf;,a

l¾udka;j, ;dm Yla;sh ckkh lsÍu iy fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i Ndú;hgo LPG iy N+ñf;,a ksfjiaj, ms<sfj<ska wdydr msiSu iy wdf,dalk lghq;= iòyd o Ndú;hg .kq ,efí'

LPG l=vd m%udKhla m%jdyk wxYfhys o Ndú; flf¾' ;dm Yla;sh iòyd úl,am m%Njhla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; l< yels neúka iEu m%Odk n,Yla;s fCIa;%hla ms<snòju fuys my; idlÉPd lr we;'

4'1 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh

.Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYfhys ^HH&C& mßfNdackhg .efkk fmdis, bkaOk w;ßka nyq, f,i

LPG, wdydr msiSu iòyd o N+ñf;,a" wdf,dalkh iy wdydr msiSu iòyd o Ndú; flf¾' ãi,a iy bkaOk f;,a o l=vd m%udKj,ska jdKsc Wm wxYfhys Ndú;hg .efka' ffcjialkaOh nyq, f,i ksfjiaj, wdydr msiSu iòyd fhdod .kakd kuqÿ fuu wOHhkh hgf;a ffcjialkaOh

ie,ls,a,g .ekSula isÿ fkdfõ' j¾I 2001-2012 olajd ld,h ;=<HH&C wxYfhys mßfNdackh lrk ,o úúO bkaOkj, m%udKhka 11 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' iuia; bkaOk mßfNdackh 2001-2007 ld,h ;=< idudkH neiaula olakg ,enqKq w;r bkamiqj tys jeä ùula olakg ,enqKs' fuu wxYh ;=< mßfNdackh lrk ,o iuia; bkaOk m%udKh 2008 iy 2012 ld,h ;=< 8'3]l idudkH YS>%;djhlska by< ke. ;sfí' j¾I 2001 iy 2012 w;r" 7'88]l j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrñka ck.ykh ñ,shk 18'80 isg ñ,shk 20'28 olajd by< f.dia ;sfí'

flfiafj;;a" fuu ld,h ;=< §" LPG mßfNdackfhys fukau N+ñf;,a mßfNdackfhys;a j¾Okhla fmkakqï fldg ke;'

11 jk rEmh ( .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYfhys fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh33

23

ck yd ixLHdf,aLk fomd¾;fïka;=j úiska isÿ lrk ,o 2012$13 .Dyia: wdodhu iy úhou ms<snò ióCIKhg wkqj" .Dyia: wdydr msiSu iy wdf,dalkh iòyd bkaOk Ndú;fhys rgdj 8

jk j.=fjys olajd we;' tys olajd we;s o;a; LPG" w¾O-kd.ßl iy .%dóh m%foaYj,g ldjeoa§fï úYd, bvlvla mj;sk neúka wdydr msiSu iòyd ffcjialkaOh fhdod .ekSfuys

wjm;khla olakg ,efnkq we;s nj fmkakqï lrhs' úÿ,sn,h iy LPG .%dóh iy j;= m%foaYj,g ldjeoa§u;a iu. wdf,dalk lghq;= iy wdydr msiSu iòyd N+ñf;,a Ndú;fhys wvqùula we;sùugo bv we;'

8 jk j.=j ( wdydr msiSfï§ iy wdf,dalkfha§ bkaOk Ndú;fhys rgdj 2012$1334

wxYh wdydr msiSu ^m%;sY;h& wdf,dalkh ^m%;sY;h&

or LPG N+ñf;,a úÿ,sn,h N+ñf;,a RE

kd.ßl 35.2 55.5 9.2 97.0 2.7 0.4

.%dóh 85.7 12.0 2.3 87.5 11.3 1.6

j;= wxYh 95.3 2.4 2.3 82.8 16.9 0.2

cd;sl 77.5 19.0 3.5 88.9 10.1 1.1

4'2 lDIsld¾ñl wxYh

Y%S ,xldfõ wd¾Ólh lDIsl¾udka;h u; mokï jQ tllehs iïm%odhdkql+,j ie,fla'

flfiafj;;a" A7 rEmfhys fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ wo jk úg lDIsld¾ñl wxYh cd;sl GDP

fj; wju odhl;ajhla fmkakqï lrhs' lDIsld¾ñl lghq;=j,ska GDP fj; flfrk fulS odhl;ajh 12 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ idudkH YS>%;djh 3'8]l ks;H j¾Okhla fmkakqï

fldg ;sfí' SLSEA o;a;j,g wkqj" 17 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s wdldrhg N+ñ jdyk .ykfhys rEmKh fldg we;s j¾;udk lDIsld¾ñl wxYfha fndfyda lghq;= yereKq fldg" lDIsld¾ñl wxYh u.ska mßfNdackh flfrkafka fkd.sksh yels ;rï jk iq¿ bkaOk m%udKhls'

12 jk rEmh ( lDIsl¾uh u.ska ^ksh; ñ,&GDP fj; odhl;ajh

wïmdr" fmdf<dkakrej" iy l=reKE., jeks úYd, l=Uqre hdhj,a olakg ,efnk Èia;%slalj, hdka;%SlrKh lrk ,o wiajkq fk,k hka;% ks;sm;d Ndú; lrk ,o bkaOk m%udKh ms<snòj

24

ksishdldr weia;fïka;=jla ilia lr fkdue;' lmd .;a ù" ieliq f;a" ieliq rn¾ iy fmd,a" fgdka tlla ksIamdokh lsÍu msKsi wjYH flfrk úYsIag Yla;sh .Kkh lsÍfuka iy jd¾Islj fulS ksIamdokj, iuia; ksIamdokh u.ska fuu wxYhg jeh jk iïmQ¾K Yla;sh ks¾Kh lsÍu isÿ l< yelsh'

úh<s l,dmfhys isÿ flfrk lDIsld¾ñl lghq;=j,ska jeä m%;sY;hla" by< Odß;djhla iys; c, fmdïm Ndú; lrñka .eUqre fyda Wm-mDIaàh <sxj,ska c,h ,nd .kakd Wiaidk jdßud¾. moaO;s hgf;a isÿ flf¾' fuu fmdïm l%shdlrjkafka mdr fomi jQ bkaOky,a j,ska ñ,g .kakd ãi,a fyda N+ñf;,aj,ska jk w;r tjeks wjia:d iòyd fjkuu jd¾;d ;nd .ekSula isÿ lrkafka ke;'

fuu ish¨ lghq;= isÿ lsÍug bkaOk wjYH flfrk w;r" 12 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ" lDIsl¾uh iòyd wjYH flfrk bkaOk iòyd ;sfnk b,aü lDIsl¾u ksIamdok j¾Okhg wkqrEmSj j¾Okh fjkq we;ehs hfula n,dfmdfrd;a;= úh yelsh' flfiafj;;a" 13 jk rEmfhys" olajd we;s mßÈ" lDIsl¾u wxYh hgf;a bkaOk mßfNdackh j¾I 2005ka wdrïN ù" 2010 yereKq fldg" ks;H wvqùula jd¾;d fldg ;sfí' lDIsl¾uh iòyd wjYH flfrk bkaOk mdr fomi we;s bkaOjy,aj,ska ñ,g .ekSu iy tf,i úlsKQ m%udKh lDIsl¾u wxYh hgf;a

fkdj m%jdyk wxYh hgf;a jd¾;d lsÍu fuhg fya;=j úh yelsh' lDIsl¾u wxYh GDP iòyd ie,lsh hq;= mx.=jla odhl flfrk fyhska" fuu wxYh hgf;a wkqrEmS odhl;ajhla n,Yla;s wxYh hgf;a o ;sìh yels nj hful=g wfmaCId l< yelsh'

13 jk rEmh ( lDIsld¾ñl lghq;=j,§ bkaOk mßfNdackh35

4'3 ld¾ñl wxYh

j¾I 2007-2012 ld,h ;=< ld¾ñl wxYh cd;sl GDP fj; 29'4] iy 31'5] w;r odhl;ajhla ,nd § we;' úúO Wm-wxYj," 2002 ñ, mokï fldg .;a 2007-2012 ld,h ;=< w.h tl;= lsÍïj, odhl;ajh 14 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' fuu ld,h ;=< 5'86]l j¾Okhla fmkakqï fldg ;sfí'

by<u odhl;ajh" wdydr" mdk j¾." iy ÿïfld< wxYfhka ,eî we;s w;r" frÈms<s yd ksñ we`ÿï iy ridhksl øjH yd rn¾ hk wxYo ie,lsh hq;= odhl;ajhla ,nd § ;sfí' flfiafj;;a" fjk;a ld¾ñl Wm-wxYj,ska" úfYaIfhka WÉp n,Yla;s iQCIu l¾udka;j,ska isÿ flreKq

odhl;ajh b;d wju uÜgul mj;S' mßYsIagfhys fmkajd § we;s mßÈ" l¾udka; wxYfhka GDP fj; isÿ flreKq odhl;ajh th flfrys fiajd wxYh u.ska ,nd ÿka odhl;ajhg jvd wvq ù ;sfí'

25

l¾udka; wxYfhys Ndú; flfrk bkaOk" N+ñf;,a" ãi,a" bkaOk f;,a" LPG" .,a w`.=re" iy ffcjialkaOj,ska iukaú;h' ffcjialkaOh yereKq fldg" 2001-2012 olajd bkaOk mßfNdackh 15 jk rEmfhka fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' .,a w`.=re" isfuka;s l¾udka;fha§ Ndú; flf¾' j¾I 2007-2012 ld,h ;=< wd¾Ólh fj; l¾udka; wxYfhys odhl;ajh 5'86]l jd¾Isl j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrk w;r" fuu wxYh ;=< bkaOk mßfNdackfhys wkqrEmS j¾Okhla fmkakqï fkdlrhs' th 2005-2011 olajd RK j¾Okhla fmkajhs' j¾I 2011 iy 2012 w;r

ld,fha§ 2001 j¾Ifha§ 13"525 TJ iy 2012 j¾Ifha§ 14"409 TJ hk w.hhka w;r úp,kh fjñka o ta w;r ld,h ;=< mßfNdackfhys by< my< hEï iys;j iuia; fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackfhys jeäùula fmkakqï fldg ;sfí'

14 jk rEmh ( úúO ld¾ñl Wm wxYj,ska GDP fj; odhl;ajh36

15 jk rEmh ( l¾udka; wYfhys fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh37 4'4 m%jdyk wxYh .efid,ska u.ska Èfjk iy ãi,a u.ska Èfjk hk fowdldrfhau jdyk Ndú;fhys YS>% j¾Okhla miq.sh oYlh ;=< fmkakqï fldg we;' 16 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ" .efid,Skaj,ska l%shd flfrk jdyk w;r" h;=re meÈ .ykh fndfydafihska wfklajd blau

26

f.dia we;' .efid,Skaj,skal%shdflfrk jdyk uq`M .ykh 11'3] l idudkHhla iys;j 7'0-14'5]l j¾Okhla fmkakqï flf¾' h;=remeÈh iu. ;reKhskag ksoyfia ießieÍug we;s bvlv h;=remeÈ .ykfha YS>% j¾Okhg j.lsjhq;= w;r" uOHu mka;sh iòyd ±ßh yels ñ,lg .efid,Skaj,ska Èfjk l=vd fudag¾ r: fj<òfmdf<ys ;sîu tu j¾.fha jdykj, jeäùug fya;= ù ;sfí' fuhg wu;rj" rcfha fiajlhka yg jdyk wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd nÿ iyk iemhSu jdykj, ixLHdfõ j¾Okhg j.lsh hq;= ;j;a idOlhla fõ' ÈhqKq rgj, fuka fkdj" Y%S ,dxlSh ck;dj fudag¾ r:hla oYl foll muK ld,hla ;siafia Ndú; lsÍfï m%jK;djhla fmkajk neúka" jdyk iuqodfhys jeä fldgila merKs jdykj,ska iukaú; jkafkah' ãi,a j,ska l%shd flfrk jdyk i,lk úg" tajdfha .ykfhys j¾Okh 17 jk rEmfha olajd we;s mßÈ .efid,Skaj,ska Odjkh flfrk jdykj, j¾Okhg jvd wvq YS>%;djhla fmkakqï lrhs' tajdfha jd¾Isl j¾Okh" 6'3]l idudkHhla iys;j 3'0-8'4]l mrdihl úh' oaúld¾h jEka r:" f,dß iy N+ñ jdyk .ykh wvq jeä jYfhka iudk m%udKj,ska hqla; jQ w;r nia r: .ykh b;d wvq j¾Ok uÜgul úh'

17 jk rEmh (2003-2012 ld,h ;=< ãi,aj,ska Èfjk jdykj, j¾Okh39

by; fmkakqï flfrk wdldrhg jdyk .ykfhys j¾Okh;a iu." wkqrEmS bkaOk mßfNdack j¾Okhla o wfmaCId flf¾' j¾I 2002-2012 ld, mrdih iòyd ãi,a iy .efid,Ska mßfNdackh fjk fjku 18 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' .efid,Ska mßfNdack o;a;" .efid,Skaj,ska Odjkh flfrk jdyk .ykfhys j¾Ok fõ.hg ;rula iudk j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrk kuqÿ" ãi,a mßfNdack o;a;" flfiafj;;a" lemS fmfkk fjkia yeisÍula fmkakqï lrhs' j¾I 2002 iy 2004 w;r fukau j¾I 2007 iy 2008 w;r ld,j,oS ãi,a mßfNdackh RK j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrhs' ãi,a jdyk Odjkh flreKq jd¾Isl ÿr m%udKh .efid,Ska jdykj,g jvd fnfyúka by< w.hhla f.k ;sîu o fuu jl% u.ska fmkakqï lrhs' lDIsld¾ñ" ëjr l¾udka;" iy ld¾ñl jeks fjk;a wxYj, oS m%jdykh iòyd wjYH flfrk ãi,a u. fomi we;s bkaOky,a fj;ska ñ,g .kq ,enQ ksidfjka m%jdyk wxYh hgf;a jd¾;d lsÍu óg fya;=j úh yelsh'

27

18 jk rEmh ( 2002-2012 ld,h ;=< .efid,Ska iy ãi,aj, jd¾Isl mßfNdackh40 j¾I 2001-2012 w;r ld,mrdih ;=< ãi,a iy .efid,Skaj, ixhqla; mßfNdackh 19 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' jdyk .ykh taldldÍ f,i jeäfjñka mej;=k o bkaOk ñ, by< hEu jeks fjk;a idOlj,g md;%ùu ksidfoda bkaOk mßfNdack rgdj tu rgdju wkq.ukh flfrk njla olakg fkd,efí'

19 jk rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< m%jdykh iòyd bkaOk mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh41 4'5 n,Yla;s ^úÿ,sh&wxYh

n,Yla;s wxYh kue;s jpk" m%;sm;a;s ilia lrkakka iy uyck;dj úiska zzúÿ,sn, W;amdokh iy mrsfNdackhZZ hkak iòyd Ndú; flfrñka mej;=k o ;dCIKslj th ksjerÈ fkdfõ' úÿ,sh hkq Yla;sfhys tla wdldrhla jk w;r zn,hZ" úÿ,sh fyda fjk;a wdldrhl Yla;sh W;amdokfhys YS>%;djh f,i ye`Èkaúh yelsh' ta flfia jqjo" fuu jd¾;dfjys" n,Yla;s wxYh hk joka" tu fË;%fha whf.a m%fhdackh ;ld úÿ,sn, W;amdok wxYh úia;r lsÍu msKsi

fhdod .kq we;' tkuqÿ"energy hkak fjkqjgo n,Yla;sh hkqfjka fuu jd¾;dfjys Ndú;d lr we;' tla oyia kjish .Kkaj, uq,a Nd.h jk f;la" c, úÿ,sn, hq.hg fmr isgu ia:dms; fldg we;s ;dm úÿ,s n,d.dr lsysmhla yereKq úg" rfÜ ishü mdfya úÿ,sn, wjYH;djh c,úÿ,s n,d.drj,ska imqrd .kakd ,oS' tkuqÿ uE; j¾Ij," 40-60]l m%udKhla c,úÿ,sh u.ska o"

28

b;sßh ;dm úÿ,s n,d.dr u.ska o imqrd .kakd ,oS' fïjd iïmSä;-oyk ÎC& fyj;a ãi,a n,d.dr" jdIam g¾nhsk n,d.dr fyda jdhq g¾nhsk fyda úh' tajd ãi,a f;,a fyda bkaOk f;,a fyda kema;d fyda u.ska ls%hd lrjk ,oS' jdhq-g¾nhsk" wvq-ld¾hCIu ;ks pl% fyda wê-ld¾hCIu ixhqla; pl% wdldrfha fyda tajd úh' c,úÿ,sfhka W;amdokh flfrk m%udKh" úÿ,sn, W;amdokh iòyd ;sfnk c, m%udKh iSud flfrkakd jQ" uyje,s .f`.ka jdß c, iïmdokh iòyd yrjd hjkq ,nk c, m%udKh u; o ròd mj;S'

.,a w`.=re oykh iys; jdIam g¾nhsk ^ST& 2011 jif¾ isg y`ÿkajd fok ,o w;r CEBys È.=

ld,Sk W;amdok mq`M,a lsÍfï ^LTGE& ie,eiafuys olajd we;s mßÈ wm rfÜ úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys,d m%Odk ld¾hNdrhla fïjd u.ska bgq flfrkq we;' j¾;udkfhaoS ãi,a-f;,a$ bkaOk f;,a$ fndr-f;,a oyk ãi,a n,d.dr" ãi,a-oyk jdhq g¾nhsk n,d.dr" ãi,a$bkaOk-f;,a ixhqla; pl% n,d.dr iy kùk;u .,a w`.=re-oyk úÿ,s n,d.dr hk n,d.drj,ska iukaú; W;amdok ;dCIK ñY%Khla wm rfÜ olakg ,efí' fuu ;dm n,Yla;s n,d.drj, úia;r 9 jk j.=fjys oelafõ'

9 jk j.=j ( mj;sk ;dm n,d.dr iy úY%du .ekaùfu ie,eiau42

n,Yla;s n,d.drfhys

msysàu fufyhqïlre ;dCIKh

wdrïNl jir

ia:dms; Odß;dj

MW

ksIamdokh

2010 GWh úY%dñl jir

le,Ks;siai CEB jdhq g¾nhsk 1981$82 5x20 26'18 2014

le,Ks;siai CEB jdhq g¾nhsk 1997 115 27'10 2023

imq.ialkao A CEB äSi,a 1984 4 x20 360'42 2020

imq.ialkao B CEB äSi,a 1997$99 8 x10 480'35 2025

imq.ialkao ,laOkõ äSi,a 1997 24 126'18 2013

imq.ialkao taIshdmj¾ äSi,a 1998 51 325'00 2018

pqkakdlï CEB äSi,a 1999 8 55'74

fld<U fld,a- mj¾ äSi,a 2000 60 460'96 2015

hdmkh fkda¾;a- mj¾ äSi,a 2000 30 2018

le,Ks;siai CEB CCGT 2002 165 493'30

ud;r taia mj¾ äSi,a 2002 20 154'72 2018

fydrK taia mj¾ äSi,a 2002 20 163'22 2018

le,Ks;siai AES Ltd CCGT 2003 163 464'12 2023

mq;a;,u fy<Okõ äSi,a 2003 100 643'82 2015

weô,smsásh taia mj¾ äSi,a 2004$05 100 640'46 2015

flrj,msáh fjiaÜ-fldaiaÜ CCGT 2008$10 300 547'10

mq;a;,u CEB jdIam g¾nhsk 2011 300

j¾I 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úÿ,sn, W;amdok tallj, ia:dms; Odß;djfhys j¾Okh 20 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' fndfyda j¾I iòyd c, úÿ,s iy ;dm úÿ,s n,d.drj, ia:dms; Odß;djfhys iudk njla fmfkkakg ;sfí' úYd, c, úÿ,s n,d.drj, ia:dms; Odß;djh 1"355

MWg <`.dù we;s w;r fn%daâ,kaâ ^35 MW& iy Wud Th ^120 MW& hk bÈlsÍï mj;sñka

;sfnkakd jQ n,d.dr fol;a iu. uq`M c, úÿ,s ia:dms; Odß;dj 1"510 MWg <`.dfjkq we;'

29

20 jk rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úÿ,s n,d.drj, ia:dms; Odß;djfhys j¾Okh44

wkd.;fha ia:dms; lsÍug kshñ; wfmaCIl jHdmD;s n,d.dr folla CEB ys os.= ld,Sk ckkh

(LTGE) ie,eiaug we;=,;a fldg we;' ñka tlla fokshdfha" .sx .`. wdY%s;j ^49 MW& iy

wfkl uyje,s .`. yryd fudrf.d,a,ysos ^27 MW) fõ' ;jo l`M .`. ûd;f,a Èia;%slalh& yria fldg c,dYhla o wUka .`. yria fldg ;j;a c,dYhla o tu c,dY fol iïnkaO flfrk Wu`.la o we;=<;a kj jdßud¾. jHdmD;shl jevlghq;= fudr.ylkafoys oekgu;a wdrïN fldg

;sfí' fuu Wu`. fl<jr Odß;dj 25 MWjQ c, úÿ,s n,d.drhla f.dvke.Su o fuu

jHdmD;shg we;=<;afõ43' flfiafj;;a" CEB LTGE ie,iqfuys th wka;¾.; lr ke;'

c,úÿ,s iy ;dm n,d.dr iòyd ia:dms; Odß;djhka wdikak jYfhka iudk jk w;r" 21 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ jir tll oS fyda folloS yefrkakg ;dm n,Yla;sh" c, úÿ,sn, Yla;shg jvd m%uqL jk wdldrhg tajdfhka cks; ksIamdokh mq`M,a f,i fjkiafõ' c,úÿ,s W;amdokhg iSud mkjñka ksh`. we;sùu fuu úIu;djhg fya;= jQ tla lreKla úh yelsh'

21 jk rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úúO m%Njj,ska W;amdokfhys j¾Okh45

úÿ,sn, W;amdokh iòyd Lksc bkaOk - ãi,a f;,a" bkaOk f;,a" fndr f;,a" kema;d iy .,a w`.=re jeks úúO j¾.fha bkaOk Ndú; lrkq ,efí' úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh iòyd 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< jd¾Isl bkaOk mßfNdackh 22 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' wfmaCIs; mßÈ" bkaOk mßfNdackh" c, úÿ,s n,Yla;s W;amdokh iu. m%;sf,dau iïnkaO;djhla 21 jk rEmfhka oelafõ'

30

22 jk rEmh ( úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh iòyd bkaOk mßfNdackh 2001-201246

j¾I 2012 isg úúO wxY u.ska mßfNdackh lrk ,o úÿ,sn,h 23 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' by<u mßfNdackh 39]l odhl;ajhla iys;j .Dyia: wxYh i;= jk w;r l¾udka; wxYh mßfNdackh fldg we;af;a 34] la muKla fmfka' wm rfgys ld¾ñl mokfuys wvq uÜgu

fuu.ska fmkakqï flfrk w;r" ffoksl mßfNdack rgdfjys WÉp wjia:dj 1900-2230h wdf,dalk ld,h ;=< we;s ùu óg ;j;a idCIshla fõ' ishü cd;sl mßfNda.sl wxY w;=ßka by<u jd¾Isl úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh olajk .Dyia: wxYfha 2013 j¾IfhaoS tla .Dyhlg wod, idudkHh úÿ,sh tall 63lska muKla ùu W;am%dihls' úÿ,sn, iïnkaO;djh imhk ,o ksfjia

m%udKh 88] la muKla jk nj CEB m%ldY lr isáh o" 2009$10 ld,h ;=< mj;ajk ,o iy uy nexl=j u.ska m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,o ksjdi ióCIK jd¾;djla fmkajd fokafka wdf,dalkh iòyd úÿ,sn,h Ndú; lrk ksjdi ixLHdj cd;sl f,i 85'3la o kd.ßl wxYfhys 95'5]la o jk njh'

23 jk rEmh ( úúO wxYj, úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh 201247 .Dyia: mßfNdack YS>%;djh by< kexùu u.ska iy 2013 § 96]la muKla jQ" úÿ,sn, iemhqu ,ndÿka ksjdi ixLHdj by< kexùu fya;=fldg f.k .Dyia: wxYfhys b,aü by< kexùu iòyd jeä wjldYhla ;sfí' .Dyia: mrsfNdackh wvq uÜgul mej;Sug fya;= tlla jkafka" f¾äfhdajla" rEmjdyskS hka;%hla" frÈ uÈk bia;sßlalhla" iy YS;lrKhla jeks oE wvx.= wju WmlrK iy Bg wu;rj wdf,dalkh jeks w;HjYH Ndú; muKlska ;Dma;su;a jk fndfyduhla ñksiqkaf.a ir, Ôjk rgdjhs' wfkla fya;=j jkafka" uOHia: n,Yla;s mßfNdack

31

WmlrK Ndú;h wffO¾hu;a lrjk by< úÿ,s .dia;= whlsÍu fõ' uqM .Dyia: mßfNdackh wvq uÜgul mej;Sug ;j;a fya;=jla jkafka" j;=r ySgr" jdhq iólrK" frÈ fidaok hka;% jeks uOHia: m%udKfha úÿ,sn,hla mßfNdackh lrk WmlrKj, idfmaCI by< msßjehhs' 4'6 úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh iy cd;sl ixj¾Okh hï rgl wd¾Ólh iy ;dCIKh hk fowxYfhau ixj¾Okh fmkajk o¾Ylhla jkafka tu rfÜ tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackhhs' Y%S ,xldfõ 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< by; lS o¾Ylfhys j¾Okh 24 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' fmr fldgfiys imhd we;s fya;= ldrKd ksid fuh wju

w.hla olajhs' tal mqoa., mßfNdackh" 2012 iy 2013 j¾Ij, ms<sfj,ska 515 iy 519 kWh/–

capita úh50' flfiafj;;a" rgj,a lsysmhla yereKqúg" wdishdfõ fndfyda rgj, talmqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh Y%S ,xldfõ tu w.hg jvd fndfyda by< w.hla .kakd nj 25 jk rEmh fmkakqï lrhs' fuu rgj,a yd iiòk úg Y%S ,xldfõ tl mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh" ldïfndach" ñhkaudrh" nx.,dfoaYh" yd fkamd,h jeks b;d W!k ixj¾ê; rgj,a lsysmhlg muKla by<ska isák" tu ,ehsia;=fõ my<u ia:dkhlg ysñlï lshhs' wdishdfõ iEu ÈhqKq rglu mdfya" kQ;k iudc wjYH;djka iòyd wjYH flfrk wjuh f,ig i,lkq ,nk 2000

kWh/capitaj,g jvd by< tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackhla olakg ,efí51'

24 jk rEmh ( 2001-2013 ld,h ;=< tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mrsfNdackfha j¾Okh48,49

wdishdkq ixj¾Ok nexl=j ÂDB& 2007 j¾IfhaoS zzieug n,Yla;shZZ kñka m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,o jd¾;djlg wkqj" tal mqoa., n,Yla;sh" úfYaIfhka úÿ,sn,h" mßfNdackh iy udkj ixj¾Ok o¾Ylfhys uÜgï w;r Yla;su;a iyiïnkaOhla ;sfnk nj fmkajd oS ;sfí52'

Ôú;fhys zzjeo.;aZZ .=Kd;aul njla fmkakqï lrk udkj ixj¾Ok ^HD& o¾Ylfha w.h 0'9

ùug kï tu rgg 4"000kWh/capital wju úÿ,sn, mßfNdackhla wjYH jk nj fuu jd¾;dfõ iòyka lr we;' j¾I 2012 iòyd Y%S ,xldfõ udkj ixj¾Ok o¾Ylh 0'715la muKla jQ w;r"

0'965 ^fkda¾fõ& isg 0'304 ^khsc¾& olajd HDI mrdihlska hq;a rgj,a 186lska uOHhg ^92 fjks ia:dkh& wdikak ia:dkhla fï ksid Y%S ,xldjg ysñ ù ;sfí53' Y%S ,xldj" f,dal idudkHh jk 0'694g uola by<ska isák kuqÿ 0'558l idudkHhla iys; ol=Kq wdishdfõ by<u ia:dkfha isà'

32

25 jk rEmh ( wdishdfõ tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackfhys jHdma;sh - 201154

fuu jd¾;dj" 1000 kWH/capitaj,g jvd wvq úÿ,s mßfNdackhla iys; rgj, fjfik ck;dj oeä È<s`ÿ njlska hqla;j isák nj ;jÿrg;a m%ldY lrk w;r Y%S ,xldj fuu lKavdhug wh;a nj fuys,d iòyka l< hq;=h' iïmQ¾K ck.ykhgu Tjqkaf.a úÿ,sn, cd,h jHdma; lsÍug iy wjYH;djhg wkqj by< hk W;amdok Odß;djh tla lsÍuu fulS rgj,a iòyd jk wNsfhda.h fkdjk nj fuu jd¾;dj y`ÿkdf.k ;sfnk w;r" úÿ,sn,fhys by< msßjeh i;H jYfhkau oeÍug yels jk wdldrhg uyckhd m;alrùug wjYH cd;sl wdodhu m%udKj;a ;rfï YS>%;djhlska hqla;j by< kexùuu fuu wNsfhda.h jk nj;a y`ÿkdf.k we;'

úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh 4000 kWh/capita uÜgul iemhSug wjYH flfrk Odß;djh ia:dms; lsÍfï b;d by< msßjehla wjYHjk ksid" ÈhqKqfjñka mj;sk rgj, wju jYfhka 2000

kWh/capital ^0'8 HDI uÜgulg wkqrEmSj& cd;sl tal mqoa., mßfNdack b,lal msysgqjd .ekSu iqÿiq nj fuu jd¾;dj ks¾foaY lrhs' Y%S ,xldj iòyd" fuh j¾;udk uÜgfï isg wdikak jYfhka isõ .=Khla olajd by< hduls'

ck;djf.a i;H Ôjk uÜgu ms<sìUq flfrk jvd;a wod< idOlh jkafka .%dóh$ .Dyia:$ fkajdisl wxYfhys tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh fõ' j¾I 2011 iòyd wdishd;sl rgj,aj, fuu w.hhka 26 jk rEmfhys olajd ;sfnk w;r tu w.hhka 25 jeks rEmfhys olajd ;sfnk iuia; tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackhg jvd ie,lsh hq;= m%udKhlska wvqh'

33

26 jk rEmh ( wdishdfõ.Dyia: tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackfhys jHdma;sh - 201155

fuu wjia:dfõ§ mjd Y%S ,xldj 191 kWh/capita iys;j my< w¾Ofha msysgk w;r" wdishdfõ ÈhqKq iy ÈhqKqfjka wvq rgj, úIu;djh iòyd fuh ukd idCIshla fõ' idudkHhla jYfhka

iEu ksjilau mqoa.,hska 4'5lska iukaú; jkafka kï" udisl .Dyia: mßfNdackh 67 kWh la iys;j by; w.h fkdfjkiaj mj;S' Y%S ,xldj j¾;udkfha wju mßfNdackhla iys; rgj,a iu. fm<g isák w;r ó<`. by<mx;sfha rgj,a jk ;dhs,ka;h" uef,aisshdj" iy wE; fmrÈ. rgj,a uÜgug <`.d ùug kï tys .Dyia: tal mqoa., mßfNdackh ;=ka .=Khlg wêl m%udKhlska by< kxjd .; hq;=fõ' fndfydauhla Y%S ,dxlslhskaf.a bmehqï Odß;djh" ixj¾ê; rgj, w;HjYH NdKav fia ie,flk kQ;k úoHq;a WmlrK ñ,g .ekSug fyda jdhQiólrK jeks Ôú;h iemj;a flfrk NdKav u; wdfhdackh lsÍug fyda bv ,nd fkdfoa' Y%S ,xldfõ" 2009$10 ld,fha§ isÿ lrk ,o ióCIKhlg56 wkqj" uQ,sl WmlrK mjd Ndú; lrkq ,nkafka ksfjia m%udKhka fldgila muKs¦ Wod( f¾äfhdaj ^81]&" rEmjdysksh ^80]&" YS;lrKh ^40]&" frÈ fidaok hka;% ^13]&" úÿ,s mxld ^51]& iy ùäfhda leiÜ hka;% ^36]&' ldur jdhqiólrK iy Wÿka jeks wêl úÿ,sh m%udKhla wjYH flfrk WmlrK u; wdfhdackh lsÍu iòyd ñksiqka wffO¾hu;a lrjkakla f,i uOHu mx;s n,Yla;s mßfNdackhg wod< by< nÿ o fya;=fõ' 4'7 iuia; fmdis, bkaOk b,aü .Dyia:" lDIsld¾ñl" ld¾ñl" m%jdyk" iy n,Yla;s wxYj," 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< ixhqla;

fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh 27 fjks rEmfhys ±lafõ' fuys§" LPG" .efid,Ska" ãi,a" kema;d" N+ñf;,a" bkaOk f;,a" iy wjfYaI f;,a we;=<;a Lksc bkaOk mßfNdackh muKla fuys§ ie,ls,a,g f.k we;' m%Odk odhl;ajh fuys§ ,eî we;af;a" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxYj,sks'

wfkla wxY ;=fkys - l¾udka;" .Dyia: iy lDIsl¾u mßfNdackh 20 PJg wvqfjka ia:djr ;;ajhl mej;=Kq w;r" iuia; mßfNdackfhys j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrk ,oafoa by; wxY foflka" tkï" m%jdykh iy n,Yla;s wxYj,ska muKs'

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27 jk rEmh ( 2001-2012 ld,h ;=< úúO wxYj, fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh

j¾I 2012 iòyd fuu tla tla wxYj, bkaOk mßfNdackhg wod< f;dr;=re 28 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' úYd,;u fldgi jk 55'3 ]la m%jdyk wxYh u.ska mßfNdackh lr we;s w;r fojekak jk 29'0 ]l fldgi n,Yla;s wxYh u.ska o" f;jekak jk 9'3 ]l fldgi .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh u.ska o" 6'3 ]l fldgi l¾udka; wxYh u.ska o mßfNdackh lr we;' wvqu fldgi jk 1]l muKla jQ odhl;ajhla iys;j lDIsl¾u wxYh u.ska mßfNdackh lr we;'

28 jk rEmh ( úúO wxY w;r fmdis, bkaOk b,aü - 2012

lDIsld¾ñl wxYh iy .Dyia: wxYh hk oaú;ajfhysu" n,Yla;s b,a ug m%Odk odhl;ajhla ,efnkafka ffcjialkaO oykfhka jk w;r" tksidu Lksc bkaOkj,ska fuu wxYj,g ,efnkafka wvq odhl;ajhls' flfiafj;;a" j¾;udk úYaf,aIKfha§" ffcjialkaOj,ska ,efnk odhl;ajh bj;a lr we;' n,Yla;s o;a;mdolhg we;=<;a fkdlrk ,o tla wxYhla f,i ëjr wxYh ±laúh yelsh' ëjr iy c, iïm;a wud;HdxYfha ixLHdf,aLkj,g wkqj" 2013 § Y%S ,xldfõ ëjr hd;%d moaO;shg" ;ks-Èk *hsn¾.a,dia fndaÜgq 24"000la" nyq-Èk hd;%d 4"200la iy fjk;a iïm%odhl hdka;%sl fndaÜgqj,ska iukaú; jk fudag¾ fndaÜgq o< jYfhka 30"500la muK ;snqKs' ;ks-Èk l=vd fndaÜgqjl .efid,Ska mßfNdackfhys idudkH w.h jd¾Islj ,Sgr 1"500la f,ig57" iy úYd, fndaÜgqjl tu w.h jd¾Islj ,Sg¾ 25"000la muK jk nj weia;fïka;= fldg we;58' fï wkqj"

jd¾Isl b,aü .efid,Ska iòyd 30 ktla o ãi,a iòyd 100 ktla o f,i .Kkh fldg we;'

m%jdyk wxYfha jd¾Isl .efid,Ska b,a u jk 750 kt yd ãi,a b,a u jk 1"500 kt yd

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ixikaokh lrk úg fïjd ie,lsh hq;= w.hhka fõ' Y%S ,xldj i;=j ëjr jrdhka 20la muK ;sfnk w;r fï w;=ßka 17l bkaOk fnod yeÍfï uOHia:dk msysgqjd we;' tksid" ëjr wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackh ms<snòj jd¾;d ;nd .ekSu isÿ l< yels ld¾hhls' 4'8 l¾udka;wuq øjH f,i iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,aü fndfyda ridhksl ksIamdok ksmoùfuys,d wjYH jk wuq øjH f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj

Ndú;hg .kq ,efí' hQßhd ^CO^NH2&2& iy wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ^^NH4&2SO4& hk fmdfydr j¾.

ksIamdokh lsÍug wjYH flfrk wefudakshd ^NH3& kue;s uQ,sl ksIamdokh ia-jdhq Ndú; lr ksmojkq ,efí' Y%S ,xldfõ fndfyduhla fnda. j¾. iòyd fuu fmdfydr mq`M,a f,i Ndú;d

flf¾' Y%S ,xldj" 2011 j¾I ;=< hQßhd 768 ktla wdkhkh lr ;sfí59' hQßhd iòyd 2'5]l jd¾Isl

j¾Ok fõ.hla we;ehs Wml,amkh l<fyd;a 2014 j¾Ih iòyd tys mßfNdackh 827 ktla jkq

we;s njg weia;fïka;= l< yel' fmdfydrla f,i Ndú; lsÍu msKsi" 2014 j¾Ifha § 71 kt

olajd jeäùug bvlv we;s wefudakshï i,af*aÜ 66'65 ktla 2011 j¾Ih ;=< Y%S ,xldjg wdkhkh lrkq ,en we;60' fuu fmdfydr j¾. folu ia-jdhqj fhdodf.k Y%S ,xldj ;=< ksIamdokh lsÍfï yelshdjla we;' fuu wjia:d foflaÈu ia-jdhqfjka m<uqj wefudakshd ksIamdokh lr bka

wk;=rej th hQßhd iy wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ÂMS& njg mßj¾;kh lrkq ,efí' iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska ksIamdokh l< yels wfkla ksIamdok f,i fu;fkda,a iy t;fkda,a

ye`Èkaúh yel' tajd ó;hs,a uOHidr ^CH3ÔH&& iy t;s,a uOHidr ^C2H5ÔH&& f,i o y`ÿkajkq ,efí' fu;fkda,a ñksidg úI iys; jk w;r" t;fkda,a" ñksiqka úiska mßfNdackh lrkq ,nk uOHidr ksIamdokfhys m%Odk ix>glhla fõ' iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska ksmojkq ,nk iy f,dj mqrd fj<òdu iòyd fhdod .efkk m%Odk lDIsld¾ñl ksIamdokh" fu;fkda,a fõ' m%jdyk bkaOkhla f,i" bkaOk-ffi, ksIamdokfha§ yhsv%cka m%Njhla f,i" li< c,h msßisÿ lsÍfï§ khsà%yrK ldrlhla f,i" iy ffcjãi,a ksIamdokfha§ g%dkaia-tiaÜÍNjk ldrlhla f,i fu;fkda,a Rcqju fhdod .kS' tfukau" f*da¾ue,aäyhsâ" weisála wï,h" iy t;s,Ska jeks úúO ksIamdok ksmoùfï§ m%Odk mdol ridhkh f,i o fu;fkda,a fhdod .efka' ;Ska; j¾." ue,shï j¾." frisk iy fmK iys; øjH jeks mq`M,a mrdihl jQ ld¾ñl ksIamdok ksmoùu

iòyd f*da¾ue,aäyhsâ fhdod .kq ,efí' Y%S ,xldj" 2011 j¾Ih ;=<USD ñ,shk 5'41la

jákdlula we;s fu;fkda,a 9'86 ktla wdkhkh lr ;snqKs61' j¾I 2011 § 10 ktl m%udKhla wdkhkh flfrkq we;ehs Wml,amkh lrk ,oS' t;fkda,aj, m%Odk b,aü jkafka uOHidr ;ekSug wjYH iam%S;= ksIamdokh lsÍuhs' fudag¾ r: bkaOk iòyd ñY%Khla f,i Ndú; lsÍfï yelshdj o t;fkda,a i;=h' t;fkda,a ,Sgr ñ,shk

10'42la muK fyda 8'42 ktl muK fyda 2013 § Y%S ,xldjg wdkhkh lrkq ,en we;s w;r fmd,a" ;,a" iy Wla fnda.j,ska ,nd.;a foaYSh lDIsld¾ñl ksIamdok wdijkh lsÍu u.ska o ,Sgr ñ,shk 11la muK t;fkda,a furg ;=< ksIamdokh lr we;62' b;d by< noaola wh flfrk neúka" t;fkda,a ksIamdokh lsÍu iy wdkhkh lsÍu iqrdnÿ fomd¾;fïka;=j u.ska kshdukh lrkq ,efí' iqjò ú,jqka j¾. iy u;=msg wdf,amk jeks ld¾ñl ksIamdok ksmoùu iòyd o

jd¾Islj t;fkda,a 600 tla muK fhdod .efka' j¾I 2014 § 9'5 ktl m%udKhla wdkhkh lrkq we;ehs weia;fïka;= lr ;snqKs' t;fkda,a úc,khg Ndckh l< úg" t;s,Ska ,efí' fmd,st;s,Ska" fmd,st;s,Ska fgßma;ef,aÜ" fmd,só;hs,a laf,darhsâ" iy fmd,siaghsÍka jeks nyq wjhúl ksIamdokfha§ wuqøjHhla f,i t;s,Ska fhdod .efka' weiqreïlrKfha§" m%jdykfha§" úoHq;a$bf,laá%la" frÈ ms<s" iy bÈlsÍï l¾udka;j, mq`M,a mrdihl jQ ld¾ñl yd mdßfNda.sl fj<òdï i|yd t;fkda,a Ndú;hg .kq ,efí' wm rgg ia-jdhq ,enqKq úg" by; l¾udka; ia:dms; lsÍu iòyd ±ßh hq;= by< wdfhdack

36

msßjeh iòyd hï wkqn,hla §u isÿ lrkafka kï" l¾udka;lrejka fulS ksIamdok ksmoùfï jHdmdr wdrïN lrkq we;'

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5' wkd.; wfmaCIdjka ishü wxY iòyd wkd.; n,Yla;s wjYH;djh ie,iqï lsÍfï§" ms<s.;a l%ufõo u; mokïj mqfrdal:khka isÿlsÍu l< hq;=h' Y%S ,xldfõ tjeks weia;fïka;= ks;sm;d ilia lrkq ,nkafka

úÿ,sn, wxYh ;=< muKla jk w;r" fuu mqfrdal:k iòyd fhdod .kakd Wml,amk LTGE ie,eiafuys úia;r fldg ;sfí' m%jdyk wxYho iuyr úg úfYaI wjia:dj,§ wOHhk isÿ lrk kuqÿ mqfrdal:khka isÿ lrk wdldrh tajdfha úia;r fkdflf¾63' úÿ,sn, wxYh yereKq úg" ms<s.;a fyda úYajdiodhl fyda l%ufõohla fkd;sîu fya;= fldg f.k" miq.sh wjqreÿ lsysmhl ;snqKq m%jK;d" tu m%jK;dj wkd.;fha§;a tf,iu l%shd;aul fj;ehs wkqudk fldg" wkd.; mqfrdal:khla isÿ lsÍu iòyd tlS miq.sh m%jK;djhkau fhdod .kakd ,§' 5'1 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh

ffcjialkaO yereKq úg" HH&C wxYfhys Ndú; flfrk bkaOk jkafka" LPG" N+ñf;,a" ãi,a f;,a" iy bkaOk f;,a fõ' j¾I 2001 isg 2012 olajd tajdfha mßfNdackh 11 jk rEmfhys

olajd we;s w;r" miq.sh jir lsysmh ;=< tajdfha j¾Ok fõ.h" LPG iòyd 6'2 ]la o" N+ñf;,a iòyd 5'3 ]la o" ãi,a f;,a iòyd 4'8]la o" iy bkaOk f;,a iòyd 3'8 ]la o nj y`ÿkdf.k

;sfí' LPG iòyd weia;fïka;= lrk ,o j¾Ok w.h LPG furg fnod yrskq ,nkafkl= úiska mqfrdal:kh lrk ,o w.h jk jd¾Isl 5-7] j¾Ok w.h yd iu.dñ fõ64' flfiafj;;a"

úÿ,sn,h u.ska wdf,dalkh lsÍu iòyd iy LPG u.ska wdydr msiSu iòyd N+ñf;,a fjkqjg wdfoaYl f,i fhdod .ekqKq neúka miq.sh jir lsysmh ;=< N+ñf;,a mßfNdackh iòyd fmkakqï lrk ,o m%jK;djhg jvd fnfyúka wvq 2 ]la jeks w.hhla jkq we;ehs wkqudk l<

yelsh' flfiafj;;a" fndfydauhla ksjdij, wdydr msiSu iòyd ffcjialkaO w;ayerLPGj,g udreùu isÿfjk neúka tys j¾Okh 7] olajd by< hkq we;ehs Wml,amkh flf¾' jd¾Isl

j¾Ok fõ.h" LPG iòyd 7 ]la" N+ñf;,a iòyd 2 ]la" ãi,a f;,a iòyd 5 ]la" iy bkaOk

f;,a iòyd 4 ]la f,i Wml,amkh lrñka HH&C wxYfhys fulS bkaOk mßfNdackh iòyd wkd.; mqfrdal:khla 29 jk rEmfhys olajd ;sfí' tlS w.hhka 10 jk j.=fjys fmkakd oS we;'

29 jk rEmh ( HH&C wxYfhys bkaOk iy .,a w`.=re mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh

j¾I 2014 § 15'6 PJ jk LPG iy N+ñf;,aj, ixhqla; mßfNdackh j¾I 2020 § 31'2 PJla olajd

o 2040 § 66'8 PJla olajd o jeäjkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' wgjk ^08& j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ"

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2012 § k.rno m%foaYj, ksjdij,ska 55]la iy .%dóh m%foaYj, ksjdij,ska 12 ]la muKla

wdydr msiSu iòyd LPG Ndú; lrk fyhska tys j¾Okh iòyd jeä wjldYhla ;sfí' wdydr

msiSfï lghq;a; iòyd ffcjialkaOj,ska LPG fj;g udreùu Wkkaÿ lsÍu u.ska .%dóh

m%foaYj,g LPG Ndú;h ckm%sh l< yels hehs wfmaCId flf¾'

10 jk j.=j ( HH&C iy ld¾ñl wxYj, m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh jir

HH&C wxYh- BAU- PJ$Y ld¾ñl wxYh- BAU- PJ$Y N+ñ f;,a

LPG bkaOk f;,a

ãi,a tlk=j .,a w`.=re

bkaOk f;,a

ãi,a N+ñ f;,a

LPG tlk=j

2014 5.72 9.85 1.27 0.60 17.43 3.14 6.36 3.04 1.10 1.42 15.05

2016 5.95 11.27 1.37 0.66 19.25 3.39 6.41 3.09 1.25 1.60 15.75

2018 6.19 12.91 1.48 0.72 21.30 3.67 6.47 3.15 1.42 1.81 16.52

2020 6.44 14.78 1.60 0.80 23.63 3.97 6.52 3.20 1.62 2.04 17.36

2022 6.70 16.92 1.73 0.88 26.23 4.29 6.58 3.26 1.85 2.30 18.28

2024 6.98 19.37 1.87 0.97 29.19 4.64 6.63 3.32 2.11 2.60 19.30

2026 7.26 22.18 2.03 1.07 32.53 5.02 6.69 3.38 2.40 2.94 20.42

2028 7.55 25.39 2.19 1.18 36.31 5.43 6.74 3.44 2.74 3.32 21.66

2030 7.86 29.07 2.37 1.30 40.59 4.87 6.80 3.50 3.12 3.74 23.03

2032 8.17 33.28 2.56 1.43 45.45 6.35 6.86 3.56 3.55 4.23 24.55

2034 8.50 38.10 2.77 1.58 50.96 6.87 6.92 3.62 4.05 4.77 26.23

2036 8.85 43.62 3.00 1.74 57.21 7.43 6.97 3.69 4.16 5.39 28.09

2038 9.20 49.94 3.24 1.92 64.31 8.04 7.03 3.75 5.26 6.08 30.16

2040 9.58 57.18 3.51 2.12 72.38 8.70 7.09 3.82 5.99 6.86 32.46

5'2 ld¾ñl wxYh uQ,H m%;sm;a;s" foaYmd,k ;SrK" úfoaYSh wdfhdack" há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh" idudkH wd¾Ól j¾Okh" iy ixj¾Okh fjñka mj;sk rgj,ska NdKav wdkhkh lsÍfï § ta iòyd ,nd fok iyk hkdÈfhka iukaú; fndfyda idOl u; l¾udka;j, j¾Okh ròd mj;S' ld¾ñl wxYfhys wkd.; j¾Okh iòyd mqfrdal:k isÿ lsÍu msKsi wd¾Ól úfYaI{hska úúO .Ks;uh wdlD;s ilia l< o" tajd o ksYaÑ;j fkdokakd fndfyda idOl u; hefma' tfyhska" miq.sh jir my ;=< jQ m%jK;d wkd.;h iòyd weia;fïka;= lsÍu msKsi by; ±lajQ l%ufõoj,g jvd m%dfhda.sl m%fõYhla wjYH fõ' myf,diajeks ^15& rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ" bkaOk f;,a

^0'42]&" ãi,a f;,a ^0'88]&" LPG ^6'25]& iy N+ñf;,a ^6'75]& mßfNdackfhys Okd;aul m%jK;djhla l¾udka; wxYh ;=< olakg ,efí' isfuka;s l¾udka;fhys Ndú; flfrk .,a w`.=re iòyd 4 ]l j¾Okhla mj;skq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' j¾I 2008-2012 ld,h ;=< mej;=Kq iudk idudkH YS>%;djhl§ 2040 olajd tajdfha m%CIsma; j¾Okh 30 jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

HH&C wxYh iòyd jQ m%CIsma; w.hka o 10 jk j.=fjys fmkakd oS we;' 5'3 m%jdyk wxYh m%jdyk wxYfhys 2008-2012 ld,h ;=< bkaOk mßfNdackh ms<snòj 19 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s o;a; ãi,a iòyd 4'85]l iy .efida,Ska iòyd 8'22]l j¾Ok YS>%;djhla fmkakqï lrhs' tu j¾Ok fõ.hu wkd.;fha§ o wLKavj mj;S hk Wml,amkh iys;j m%jdyk wxYh iòyd j¾I 2040 olajd ãi,a iy .efid,Ska b,aü .Kkh lr we;s w;r tu w.hhka 31 jk rEmfhys

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olajd ;sfí' j¾I 2040 jk úg ãi,a mßfNdackh 253 PJ olajd o .efid,Ska mßfNdackh 313 PJ

olajd o <`.djkq we;' j¾I 2020 iòyd wkqrEmS w.hhka ãi,a iòyd 98 PJ o .efid,Ska iòyd 64

PJ o jkq we;' fïjd ms<sfj<ska ãi,a 2635 Mlg iy .efid,Ska 1870 Mlg wkqrEmSfõ' m%jdyk wxYh iòyd 2040 olajd m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdack w.hhka n,Yla;s wxYfha w.hhkao iu. 12jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

30 jk rEmh ( ld¾ñl wxYfhys m%laIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

.=Krejkag65 wkqj" 2020 jk úg Y%S ,xldfõ ãi,a jdyk moaO;sh ãi,a 4419 Mlla mßfNdackh

lrkq ,nk w;r" .efid,Ska 3'737 Mll mßfNdackhla fudag¾ r: Odjkh lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kq we;ehs mqfrdal:kh lr we;' by; w.hhka" fuu wOHhkfha§ fulS ld,h iòydu mqfrdal:kh lrk ,o" ãi,a iòyd w.h fuka o< jYfhka 1'7l .=Khla o .efid,Ska iòyd wdikak jYfhka fo.=Khla o fõ' fuu by< w.hhka ,nd f.k we;af;a" rfÜ YS>% wd¾Ól ixj¾Okh;a iu. uydud¾. cd,h mq`M,a ù ñksiqkag wkd.;fha§ ;u .uka ìuka isÿ lsÍu jvd myiqfjka isÿ l< yels jk ksidh' jdyk ;dCIKh j¾;udkfha ,ndf.k we;s ÈhqKqj bkaOk-

ffi,j,ska l%shdlrk kj moaO;s y`ÿkajd §u isÿ lrñka bÈß oYl lsysmh ;=< § IC tkaðka j,ska Odjkh flfrk jdykj, ;ek ysñlr .kq we;s nj fuys§ is;ays ;nd.; hq;= lreKla f,i ±laúh yelsh' bkaOk ffi, l%shd;aul jkafka yhsv%cka iy Tlaiscka jdhQka u.sks' fuys§"

Tlaiscka" jd;fhka ,nd .; yels w;r" H2" m%Nj lsysmhlskau ,nd .; yels jkq we;' bka

tlla kï" hï ;efkl msysgqjd we;s iq<x g¾nhsk iy iQ¾h PV moaO;s u.ska ckkh flfrk ir, Odrdj Ndú; lr c,h úoHq;a úÉfþokhlg ,la lsÍu fõ' wfkl kï" iajNdúl jdhqjhs

^NG& ^3 jk rduqj n,kak&' 5'4 n,Yla;s wxYh

my; úia;r lr we;s mßÈ" CEBys LTGE ie,eiau iu. wkq.; lsÍu msKsi n,Yla;s wxYfha wkd.; b,aü mqfrdal:kh lsÍu isÿ lrk ,§' b,aü" W;amdokh iy Odß;djh mqfrdal:kh lsÍu' ishü n,Yla;s mßfNdack wxYj,ska" n,Yla;s wxYfhys muKla ffoksl È.=ld,Sk mqfrdal:k

isÿ lrkq ,efí' LTGE ie,iqfuys úia;r fldg we;s wdldrhg" ó<`. jir iòyd b,aü fmr

jif¾ Wm-wxYj, b,a¨fuys iy ó<`. jif¾ GDPys f¾Çh Y%S;hla f,i m%ldY flreKq" .Dyia:" ld¾ñl" idudkH lghq;= iy fjk;a Wm-wxY iòyd fjk fjku wdlD;s Ndú; lrñka

40

b,aü mqfrdal:kh lr ;sfí' .Dyia: wxYh iòyd úÿ,sn,fhys idudkH ñ, iy mdßfNda.slhskaf.a ixLHdjo ie,ls,a,g f.k ;sfí'

31 jk rEmh ( m%jdyk wxYfhys bkaOk mßfNdackfhys m%laIsma; j¾Okh

Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s wxYfhys .eg¨ ms<snòj" f,dal nexl=j u.ska wkq.%yh olajk ,o wOHhkhl § ,>q-f¾Çh iïnkaO;d mokï fldgf.k wkd.; úÿ,sn, b,aü mqfrdal:kh lsÍu iòyd wdlD;s ieliSu isÿ l< o bka ,enqfKa wdikak jYfhka iudk m%;sM,hs66'

LTGE ie,iqu 2013-2037 ld,h iòyd mdol îdudkH& b,aü ;;ajh hgf;a ^3'3 j.=j& fukau fjk;a fndfyda b,a¨ï ;;ajhhka hgf;a jQ b,aü" W;amdokh iy WÉp Odß;djh mqfrdal:khka ilid we;' uq,ska iòyka l< idudkH b,aü ;;ajh hgf;a b,aÆu iòyd j¾Ok YS>%;djh" 4'0] isg 8'7] olajd;a" W;amdokh iòyd 4'0] isg 7'45] olajd;a úp,kh jkq we;'

3 rduqj( bkaOk ffi, iòyd yhsv%ckays m%Njhla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj

bkaOk - ffi, hkq" uq¿ukskau ¥IKhla rys;" tkï" tkaðfuka msgfjk wm jdhQka f,i

c,jdIam muKla ksIamdokh lrñka" yhsv%cka ^H2& iy Tlaiscka Ô2& iemhQ úg úÿ,s n,h

ckkh lrk úoHq;a ridhksl moaO;s fõ' Tlaiscka jd;fhka ,nd .; yels w;r H2 iòyd

m%Nj lsysmhla we;¦ m<uqjekak" jdhq iïmdok uOHia:dkj,ska Rcq f,i H2 jdhqj iemhSu"

fojekak" iajNdúl jdhqj ^NG& u.ska iemhSu" fyda f;jekak" fu;fkda,aj,ska H2,nd

.ekSu hk f;hdldrh fõ' wjidkfha iòyka l< m%Nj foflka" H2 ,nd .efkkqfha r:h

;=<u isÿ flfrk ridhksl l%shdj<sh u.sks' H2 bkaOkhla f,i Ndú; lrñka idudkH .ei,ska oyk tkaðka Odjkh lsÍu o isÿ l< yelsh'

yhsv%cka n,Yla;s ;dCIK YLH f,i fhdod.ekSfï fufyjr iòyd ;=¾lsfha yhsv%cka

n,Yla;s ;dCIK cd;Hka;r uOHia:dkh ÎCHET&" 1994§ tlai;a cd;Skaf.a ld¾ñl

ixj¾Ok ixúOdkh ÛNIDO& u.ska ia:dms; lrk ,§' H2 n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i fhdod .ekSfï YLH;djh fmkajd,Sug jHdmD;s .Kkdjla ia:dms; lr we;' fuu jHdmD;s w;r"

kjÈ,a,sfha ;%sfrdao r: l%shdlrùu" ;=¾lsfha H2 fhdod .kakd fouqyqï nia r:" iy wi,

;sfnk n,Yla;s moaO;s mdol fldg.;a bkaOk-ffi, hk ish,a, H2 ,nd .ekSu iòyd

iq<x g¾nhsk" iy iQ¾h PV moaO;s jeks mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh Ndú; lrñka tajd m%j¾Okh lsÍu msKsi ie,iqï fldg we;'

41

iïmQ¾K ld, mrdih ;=< b,aü iòyd 5'2]l" W;amdokh iòyd 5'1]l iy Odß;djh iòyd 5]l idudkH w.hhka mj;skq we;' fuu wOHkfha§" by; idudkH j¾Ok w.hhka iy 2013

iòyd CEB ixLHdk úoHd m%ldYkfhys imhd we;s" tajdfha i;H w.hhka Ndú; lsÍfuka wkd.;fhaos we;s úh yels b,a fuys W;amdokfhys iy Odß;djfhys j¾Okhka .Kkh lrk

,§' fuu mqfrdal:khka ms<sfj<ska" 32" 33" iy 34 rEmj, olajd we;' fïjd" 2014 CEB LTGE ie,eiafuys imhd we;s wkqrEmS pl%j,g wdikak;djhla olajhs'

32 jk rEmh ( 2013-2040 ld,h iòyd m%laIsma; b,a¨fuys j¾Okh

33 jk rEmh ( 2013-2040 ld,h iòyd m%laIsma; W;amdokfhys j¾Okh

b,aü iòyd 5'2]l iy W;amdokh iòyd 5'1]l idudkH j¾Ok YS>%;djhla CEB wkqudk fldg ;snqK o 2008-2013 ld,mrdih ;=< ienE W;amdokh 3'91]la muKla úh' m%Odk jYfhka wvq b,aüla mej;Su fuf,i W;amdokfhys wvqùug fya;=ù ;sfí' j¾I 2012 § moaO;sfhys Wmßu

b,a,Su 1900h-2100h ld,h ;=< we;s jqKq 2"000-2"200 MW mrdih ;=< ;snqKq w;r" 0100h iy

0430h w;r ld,h ;=< th 1000 MWl muK w.hl mej;=Ks67' ojfia osjd Nd.fhao tkï 0900h

iy 1800h w;r ld,fha§" b,aü 1500 iy 1600 MW w;r w.hl mej;=Ks' n,Yla;s mrsfNdackh u; r|d mj;sk l¾udka;j, ix.dó j¾Okhla fkdue;s kï" fuu b,lal lrd <`.dfõ hehs wfmaCId l< fkdyel'

42

34 jk rEmh ( 2013-2040 ld,h iòyd m%laIsma; ia:dms; Odß;djfhys j¾Okh úfYaIfhkau Èjd ld,h ;=< § úÿ,sn, b,aü by< kexúh yels fndfyda jHdmD;s ;sfí' ÿïßh ud¾.j, fufyhqï ld¾hCIu;djh by< kexfjk ÿïßh ud¾. úoaHq;kh ñka tlls' rd;%S ld,fha§s iy Èkfha uq,a meh lsysmh ;=< § b,a ï úIu;dj wvq lr .ekSu iòyd ;sfnkakdjQ ;j;a úl,amhla jkafka" uq,a meh lsysmh ;=< ;sfnk w;sßla; úÿ,sn,h Wia ia:dkhla lrd c,h fmdïm lsÍug;a" Wmßu meh ld,iSudj ;=< § tu c,h tu moaO;sh ;=<u wdmiq .uka lrjd c, úÿ,sh W;amdokh flfrk fmdïmldr-.nvd lsÍfï moaO;s l%shd;aul lrùuhs' th" iïmQ¾K Wmßu b,a u imqrd,Su isÿ fkdlr;;a" ñ, wêl bkaOk iòyd jehjk uqo,a b;sß lrñka ;dm n,Yla;sfhys odhl;ajh wvq lr,Sug bjy,a jkq we;' wvq-b,a¨ï ld,h ;=< § by< Ndr idOl uÜgulska .,a w`.=re n,d.dr l%shdlrùfï yelshdj fuu.ska imhkq we;' by; mqfrdal:kh lrk ,o b,a¨fuys j¾Okh iy w16 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s uOHhk ck.yk m%CIsma;hka mokï lrf.k 2040 olajd wfmaCIs; tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh 35 fjks rEmfhys olajd we;' fuu ck.yk m%CIsma;hka 2031 § ñ,shk 21'88 l

Wmßuhla fmkakqï lrhs' j¾;udkfha mj;sk 500 kWh/ capitag uola jeä tal mqoa., úÿ,sn,

mßfNdackh 2027 ;=< 1000 kWh/capita olajd o 2035§" 1"500 kWh/capita olajd o jeä jkq we;ehs wfmalaIs;h'

j¾I 2040§ jQjo" tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh 1920 kWh olajd muKla <`.djkq we;s w;r"

th" 0'8l by<HDI w.hhla w;am;a lr .ekSu iòyd wjYH flfrk ADB b,lalh jk 2000

kWh/capitaj,g jvd wvq w.hhlska fl<jr jkq we;' j¾;udk mßfNdack YS>%;djhg wkqj"

ADB u.ska .Kka f.k we;s mßÈ by< .=Kd;aul Ôú;hla .; lsÍug wjYH uÜgfuka w¾Ohla olajdj;a úÿ,s mrsfNdackh <`.dùug È.= ld,hla .;jkq we;' flfiafj;;a" úfYaIfhkau" n,Yla;s jehjk l¾udka; iys; YS>% ld¾ólrKhla we;s lrkafka kï" fuu b,lalh lrd jvd uE; Èkhl § <`.dùug yelsjkq we;'

CEB 2013 ixLHdk m%ldYkfhys68 olajd we;s mßÈ 2013 § 96]la jeks w.hlg <`.dfjñka" .Dyia: úÿ,sn, iemhSu fjk;a fndfyda wdishd;sl rgj,a iy ixj¾Okh fjñka mj;sk

rgj,g jvd Y%S ,xldj bÈßfhka isà' j¾I 2013 oS tla ksfjilg udihlg 63 kWhl idudkH w.hlska hq;a b;d wvq .Dyia: mßfNdackh fya;= fldg f.k tu`.ska iuia; mßfNdackhg ie,lsh hq;= odhl;ajhla ;ju;a isÿ ù fkdue;' l¾udka; u.ska isÿ flfrk idudkH

mßfNdackh mjd tla l¾udka;hlg" uilg" 5"242 kWhla fõ' cd;sl jYfhka" 2012 oS 39]l

43

fldgila iys; .Dyia: wxYh ;=< m%Odk mßfNdackhla olakg ,efnk w;r" l¾udka; wxYfhys fldgi 34]la muKla jk nj 23 jk rEmfhys oelafõ'

35 jk rEmh ( Y%S ,xldfõ m%laIsma; tal mqoa., úÿ,sn, mßfNdackh

wfkla w;g" l¾udka; mokï wd¾Ólhla ;=<" ffoksl mßfNdack rgdfõ WÉp w.h Èjd ld,fhaoS <`.d úh hq;= w;r th l¾udka; wxYfhka odhl úh hq;= fõ' tksid" úfoaY Rcq

wdfhdackhla ^FDI& iòyd fm<Uùug wjYH flfrk YS>% ld¾ólrK jevigykla wm rg u.ska

Èh;a lsÍu w;HjYH fõ' n,Yla;s u; r|d mj;sk l¾udka; iys; FDI wdfhdack wdl¾IKh lr .ekSug kï" wjYH flfrk n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍfï Odß;djh muKla fkdj th úÿ,sn, ìòjeàfï m%jk;djhka iy WÉPdjpkhka rys;j isÿ lsÍug wm rg iu;a úh hq;=h' wo ojfia ikao¾Nh ;=<" tl yd iudkj i,ld ne,sh hq;= ;j;a idOlhla jkafka" úYd, jYfhka ldnka vfhdlaihsâ úfudapkh lsÍu wju lr mßirhg wju ydkshla isÿjk wdldrhg n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍuhs' wfmalaIs; mqk¾ckkSh m%Nj

LTGE ie,eiafuys wka;¾.; fldg we;s jir 2012 wjidkh jk úg ia:dms; lrk ,o NCRE

jHdmD;sj, ;;ajh tfldf<diafjks ^11& j.=fjys olajd we;' fuu w.hhka" SLSEA úiska iïmdokh fldg we;s w.hhkag ;rula fjkiafõ ^7 jk j.=j&' j¾I 2012 wjidkh jk úg

ia:dms; lrk ,o 314 MWla j Q uq`M Odß;djfhka" 227 MWla l=vd-c, úÿ,s moaO;sj,ska o 74

MWla iq<x moaO;sj,ska o 11'5 MWla ffcjialkaO$li< moaO;sj,ska o iukaú;j ;snqKS' fuu

moaO;sj, Odrs;dj 2032 jk úg 1047 MW olajd j¾Okh fjkq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= úh yels

w;r bka ,nd .; yels uq`M W;amdokh jd¾Islj 3"557 GWhla muK fõ hehs wfmaCId l< yel'

flfiafj;;a" NCRE j¾Okh iòyd we;s ndOdjla jkafka" fuu m%Njj,ska ckkh flfrk n,Yla;sh wjfYdaIKh lr .ekSug wm rfÜ n,Yla;s n,OdrSkaf. iaÓr lemùula fkdue;s ùuh' mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s ixj¾Ok m%Odk ie,eiaul fldgila f,i jvd;a uE;loS mj;ajk ,o

wOHhkhl" uq`M rfÜu tu m%Njj, Wmßu Odrs;dj" ffcjialkaO m%Nj 2"400 MWla" l=vd-

c,úÿ,s m%Nj 873 MWla" iQ¾h fldaI m%Nj 6"000 MWla iy iq<x n,Yla;s m%Nj 5"600 MWla

nj ;lafiare fldg we;70' 375 MWl iq<x n, Odß;djhla iys; ukakdrï ¥mf;ys fjka lr .kakd ,o bvï len,s wdfhdaclhska yg ,nd oS iq<x n, Yla;sh ixj¾Okh lsÍug rch ;SrKh lr ;sfí' Y%S ,xldfõ fuka fkdj fjk;a rgj," m%d.aOkhg jÜgula ,ndoSu" wdkhkh u; nÿ

iyk" iy NCRE moaO;s u; wdfhdackh lsÍfï oS nÿ m%;s,dN we;=<;a fndfyda iyk

44

NCREmoaO;s ixj¾Okh lsÍfïoS m%Odkh flf¾' flfiafj;;a" NCRE moaO;sj, j¾Okhg tÈßj ;sfnk nrm;<u ndOdj jkafka" wjYH flfrk n,m;% ,nd .ekSu iòyd" ms<s.;a iy úksúo fmfkk fufyhqï ks¾Kdhl fkdue;s fndfyda rdcH iy m%dfoaYSh wdh;k Tiafia lghq;= lsÍug wdfhdaclhska yg isÿùu fya;= fldg f.k Tjqkag uqyqKmEug isÿjk lrorldÍ

;;ajhhs' fuu .eg¨ ms<snò fkdfndaod RE ms<snòj md¾Yjlrejkaf.a jevuq`Mjl oS idlÉPdjg n`ÿka flreKs ^70 jk wdY%s; igyk n,kak&'

11 jk j.=j ( NCRE n,d.drj,ska m%CIsma; W;amdokh69

n,d.drh

l%shd;aul lrk ,o ia:dms;

Odß;djh MW

lemjQKq ia:dms;

Odß;djh

MW

iuia; ia:dms;

Odß;djh

MW ^2032&

2013 m%CIsma;

W;amdokh

GWh

l=vd-c, úÿ,sh 227 153 450 iq<x n,h 74 31 380 ffcjialkaOh$ li< 11'5 66 93 iQ¾h fldaI 1'4 124 tl;=j 314 250 1"047 3"557

W;amdokh mq`M,a lsÍfï È.= ld,Sk ie,iqï

úÿ,sn, uKav,h" 2013-2032 ld,mßÉfþoh wdjrKh flfrñka ilia lrk ,o w¨;au LTGE

ie,eiafuys" mdol ;;ajh" jeä b,a ï ;;ajh" wvq b,a¨ï ;;ajh" NG n,d.dr iu. tla lrk ,o iSñ; .,a w`.=re ;;ajh hkdoS úúO b,a,qï ;;aj hgf;a 2032 olajd b,aü iy ia:dms;

Odß;djh iòyd mqfrdal:k imhd we;' uQ,sl ie,eiafuys" b,aü iòyd 37"873 GWhl iy

Wmßu Odß;djh iòyd 7"762 MWl wkqrEmS w.hhla iys;j 2037 olajd b,aü iy Wmßu Odß;djh mqfrdal:kh lrkq ,en ;sfí' W;amdokh iòyd mqfrdal:kh 2037 jk úg 41"804

GWhla úh'

LTGE ie,eiau 2013 ys § we;s ixfYdaê; mdol wjia:dj 2012 fuu jd¾;dfõ 11 jk weuqKqfuys mßYsIaghla f,i ,nd § we;s w;r" fuu wOHhkfha§" ie,iqfuys olajd we;s iemhSu iqmqreÿ

;;aj f,i i,lkq ,en we;' fuu ie,iqug wkqj" 900 MWl mq;a;,u n,d.drh iy b;sß

CCGT n,d.dr fol we;=,;aj 2032 jk úg 5"795 MWl iuia; ;dm Odß;djhla we;s lrñka"

.,a w`.=re n,d.dr 14lska ^12«300 MW¬2«250 MW& iy jdhq g¾nhsk n,d.dr 4lska ^3«75

MW¬1«105 MW& iukaú; jk ;dm n,d.drj, Odrs;dfjys tl;=j ^mq;a;,u yer& 2032 jk úg

4"430 MWla jkq we;' Wmßu b,aü iòyd CEB u.ska isÿ lrk ,o mqfrdal:k" 2037 jk úg"

mdol b,a¨ï ;;ajh hgf;a 7"962 MWl Odß;djhla ;sìh hq;= nj fmkajd § we;' ;siay;r ^34& jk rEmfhys olajd we;s Odß;d mqfrdal:k iu. .e,mSug j¾I 2032ka miqj iEu jirlgu 300

MWl n,d.dr tlla ne.ska ia:dms; lsÍu u.ska 2040 olajd fuh §¾> fldg ;sfí' bkaOk mrsfNdack mqfrdal:k - iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;a

ie,iqfuys j¾I 2040 olajd jQ iEu jirla iòydu wka;¾.; lrk ,o n,d.drj,g wjYH flfrk .,a w`.=re" ãi,a iy bkaOk f;,a we;=<;a bkaOkj, mßfNdackh 36 jk rEmfhys

±lafõ' .,a w`.=re n,d.drj, 35]l ld¾hCIu;djhla o 75]l n,d.dr idOl (Plant Factor) o

45

;sìh yels neúka jdhq g¾nhsk iòyd wkqrEmS w.hhka ms<sfj<ska 30] iy 60]la f,i o

Wml,amkh lr we;s w;r CCGT n,d.dr iòyd fuu w.hhka ms<sfj<ska 46] iy 90] f,i

i,lkq ,en ;sfí' ±kg mj;sk ;dm n,d.drj,ska" LTGE ie,iqfuys olajd we;s mßÈ" tla

n,d.drhla iu. CCGT n,d.dr ;=k muKla 2023 jk úg wl¾ukH ;;ajhg m;ajkq we;' kema;d ms<snòj fjku ie,lSula isÿ fldg fkdue;' fuu b,a ï ;;ajh hgf;a úúO bkaOkj, m%CIsma; mßfNdack w.hhka 12 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ iqmqreÿ ;;aj f,i i,lkq ,en ;sfí'

36 jk rEmh ( n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%laIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh

12 jk j.=j ( m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxYj, m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

jir m%jdyk wxYh - mßfNdackh PJ/Y n,Yla;s wxYh - mßfNdackh PJ/Y

ãi,a .efid,ska tl;=j .,a

w`.=re ãi,a

bkaOk f;,a

tl;=j

2014 73.8 40.1 113.9 40.5 20.2 18.5 79.3

2016 81.1 47.0 128.1 60.8 34.4 18.5 113.8

2018 89.2 55.0 144.2 94.6 41.1 18.5 154.2

2020 98.1 64.4 162.5 135.2 41.1 18.5 194.7

2022 107.8 75.5 183.3 175.7 41.1 18.5 235.3

2024 118.5 88.4 206.9 216.2 31.0 18.5 265.8

2026 130.3 103.5 233.8 236.5 31.0 18.5 286.0

2028 143.2 121.2 264.5 277.1 31.0 18.5 326.6

2030 157.5 142.0 299.4 297.3 31.0 18.5 346.8

2032 173.1 166.3 339.4 337.9 31.0 18.5 387.4

2034 190.3 194.7 385.0 378.4 31.0 18.5 427.9

2036 209.2 228.1 437.3 419.0 31.0 18.5 468.5

2038 230.0 267.1 497.1 459.5 31.0 18.5 509.0

46

2040 252.8 312.8 565.7 500.1 31.0 18.5 549.6

mßfNdackh lrk ,o bkaOk iòyd 2013 § ñ," ãi,a f;,a iòyd USD/t 1047la o" bkaOk f;,a

iòyd USD/t 664la o .,a w`.=re iòyd USD/t 134la o f,i ;snqfKa hehs Wml,amkh lrñka msßjeh weia;fïka;= lrk ,§' jd¾Islj" f;,a iòyd 2'5]la iy .,a w`.=re iòyd 5]la f,i ñ, by< hEu;a Wml,amkh lrñka bkamiq t<eUqkq j¾Ihka iòyd ñ, by< kxjk ,§' fuu bkaOk ñ, by< hEu;a iu. iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;a § úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd jehjk

msßjeh 37 jk rEmfhys olajd ;sfí' by; ñ, kshu lsÍu hgf;a" 2040 j¾Ifha § 19 Mtla jk ;lafiare lrk ,o .,a w`.=re mßfNdackh iu." 2040 jk úg ishü .,a w`.=re n,d.dr

fmdaIKh lsÍu msKsi wm rgg jd¾Islj USD ñ,shk 9"500la fyda Y%S ,xld remsh,a ì,shk 1"230la muK ^j¾;udk úksuh wkqmd;slhg wkqj& úhoï lsÍug isÿjkq we;'

37 jk rEmh ( iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;a § n,Yla;s i|yd mrsfNdack jQ bkaOkj, msßjeh'

5'5 ishü bkaOk mßfNdack wxYj, wkd.; wfmaCIdjka l,ska iòyka l<" úúO wxYj, bkaOk mßfNdackh ;lafiare lrk ,o w;r fuu wxYj, wkd.; b,aü j¾;udk m%jK;dj,g wkqj bosrshgo m%lafIamkh lr ;SrKh lrk ,§' iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;a jQ b,a¨ï wjia:dfõ§ 2013 isg 2040 olajd úúO wxYj, fmdis, bkaOkj, m%CIsma; mßfNdackfhys idrdxYh 38 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï flfrk w;r" tu w.hhka 13 jk j.=fjys fmkakd oS we;'

47

38 jk rEmh ( úúO wxYj, fmdis, bkaOk m%CIsma; mßfNdackh l,ska iòyka l<" úúO wxYj, n,Yla;s b,a u" ffcjialkaO odhl;ajh neyer lrñka"

fmdis, bkaOk oykh muKla i,ld n,ñka ;lafiare fldg we;' HH&C iy ld¾ñl wxY foflysu m%uqLj Ndú; flfrk bkaOkh" ffcjialkaO fõ' tfyhska" ffcjialkaO fkdue;sj fuu wxY foflys fldgi" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxY iu. iiòk úg l=vd nj fmfka' ffcj

ialkaO fkdue;sj iqmqre ;;aj b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" iuia; bkaOk mßfNdackh 2014§ 226 PJ

isg 2040 jk úg 1227 PJ olajd by< hkq we;' Bg wkqrEmSj" mßfNdackh lrk ,o ish¨

fmdis, bkaOk iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska wdfoaY lsÍug kï" 2040 jk úg NG jdhq b,aü 587

Mcf/d isg 3"191 Mcf/d olajd by< hkq we;' oy;=kajk ^13& j.=fjys wjika ;Srefjys olajd we;s w.hhla ãi,a f;,a" N+ñf;,a" .efid,Ska"

LPG" bkaOk f;,a" wjfYaI f;,a" .,a w`.=re iy kema;d iòyd wdfoaY lr iïmQ¾K ;dm n,Yla;s wjYH;djhka ia-jdhq oykfhka ,nd .ekSfuys,d" ia-jdhq iul kñka ye`Èkafjk ffoksl ia-jdhqwjYH;djh ,ndfoa' flfiafj;;a" fuu b,lal flá ld,hla ;=< imqrd .ekSfï yelshdjla fkdue;' tfyhska" msßjeh-M,odhS wdldrhlg" j¾;udkfha Ndú; flfrk fmdis, bkaOkj,ska ia-jdhq fj; udreùu wÈhrfhka wÈhrg isÿ flfrk jevigykla ilia lsÍu wjYHfõ'

13jk j.=j ( 2013-2040 ld,h ;=< m%CIssma; bkaOk mßfNdackh iy tys NG iul

jir bkaOk mßfNdackh PJ/Y NG iul

Mcf/d HH&C l¾udka; m%jdykh n,Yla;s tl;=j

2014 17.6 15.1 113.9 79.3 225.9 587

2016 19.7 15.8 128.1 113.8 277.4 721

2018 22.0 16.6 144.2 154.2 337.0 876

2020 24.7 17.4 162.5 194.7 399.3 1038

2022 27.6 18.4 183.3 235.3 464.6 1208

2024 31.0 19.4 206.9 265.8 523.1 1360

2026 34.7 20.6 233.8 286.0 575.1 1495

2028 39.0 21.8 264.5 326.6 651.9 1695

2030 43.8 23.2 299.4 346.8 713.3 1855

2032 49.2 24.8 339.4 387.4 800.8 2082

2034 55.4 26.5 385.0 427.9 894.9 2327

2036 62.3 28.4 437.3 468.5 996.6 2591

2038 70.2 30.6 497.1 509.0 1106.9 2878

2040 79.1 32.9 565.7 549.6 1227.4 3191

5'6 ia-jdhq mdol l¾udka;j, wkd.; wfmaCIdj

48

Y%S ,xldfõ j¾;udk mßfNdack uÜgï iu. wuq øjHh f,i ia-jdhq Ndú; lrñka l¾udka; ixj¾Okh l< yels wdldrh 4'8 wxYfhys úia;r fldg we;' fuu w.hhka u; mokïj" 14 jk

j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ rfÜ wd¾Ól j¾Okh iu. ix.;j mj;akd" hQßhd iy AMS iòyd 2'5]l iy b;sßh iòyd 5]l j¾Ok fõ.hla Wml,amkh lrñka .Kkh lr ;sfí'

14 jk j.=j ( ia-jdhq mdol ksIamdokj, m%CIsma; jd¾Isl mßfNdackh

jir m%CIsma; mßfNdackh kt

hQßhd AMS fu;fkda,a t;fkda,a

2014 827 71.1 11.6 10.0

2016 869 74.7 12.8 11.0

2018 913 78.5 14.1 12.2

2020 959 82.4 15.5 13.4

2022 1008 86.6 17.1 14.8

2024 1059 91.0 18.9 16.3

2026 1112 95.6 20.8 18.0

2028 1169 100.4 22.9 19.8

2030 1228 105.5 25.3 21.8

2032 1290 110.9 27.9 24.1

2034 1355 116.5 30.7 26.5

2036 1424 122.4 33.9 29.3

2038 1496 128.6 37.3 32.3

2040 1572 135.1 41.2 35.6

49

6' n,Yla;s W;amdokh iy mdßißl ydhkh ck;djf.a fi!LHhg iy Y=NidOkhg n,mEï we;s lrñka mDÓúfhys jdhq .=Kd;aulNdjfhys ydhkh iòyd uQ,sl fya;=j f,i miq.sh Y; j¾Ih mqrd n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd fmdis, bkaOk oykh lsÍu u.ska md,khlska f;drj ¥IKldrl jdhQ úfudapkh lsÍu ±laúh yelsh' ishü ckhdg" ms<s.; yels .=Kd;aulNdjhlska hq;a jd;h iy c,h ksoyfia ,nd .; yels ùu ms<s.;a udkj whs;sjdisluls' fuu úfudapk" f.da,Sh WKqiqug odhl ùu;a" tu.ska

ldnkavfhdlaihsâ ^CO2&" óf;aka ^CH4& iy khsg%ia Tlaihsâ ^N2O& hk m%Odk yß;d.dr jdhq

^GHG& jdhqf.da,h ;=< tla /ia ùu u.ska foaY.=K úm¾hdi we;s ùu isÿfõ' miq.sh Y;j¾Ih

;=< mDÓúfha idudkH uOHkH mDIaÁh WIaK;ajh 0'76oClska by< f.dia ;sfnk w;r"

úfudapkj, uOHu b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a fuu Y;j¾Ih ;=< wju jYfhka ;j;a 2'4oClska

j;a WIaK;ajh by< hkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾71' fuh" n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd m%Odk f,i fmdis, bkaOk oykh lsÍfuka úfudapkh jk yß;d.dr jdhq lrK fldg f.k we;sfõ' 6'1 f;,a oykfhka we;s flfrk úfudapkhka Lksc f;,a hgf;a" .efid,Ska" ãi,a f;,a" N+ñ f;,a" øùlrKh lrk ,o fmfg%da,shï jdhq

^LPG&" Wÿka f;,a" ner f;,a" iy fndrf;,a hk fldgia j¾;udk wOHhkh hgf;a ie,ls,a,g

f.k we;' fuu bkaOk oykh lsÍfuka uQ,sl jYfhka CO2" ldnka fudfkdlaihsâ ^CO&"

yhsfv%dldnk ^HC& iy khsá%la Tlaihsâ ^NO& iy khsg%cka vfhdlaihsâ ^NO2&j,ska nyq,ju iukaú; jk khsg%cka Tlaihsâ fndfyduhla" jeks fjk;a jdhq fukau wj,ïNs; wxY=uh øjH

^SPM& o úfudapkh flf¾' SPM úfudapkh bkaOkj, we;s w`M m%udKh u; hefma'

mq<s`.=-oyk (spark-ignited) tkaðka iys; r: jdyk l%shdlrùug m%jdyk wxYfhys muKla .efid,Ska ^fmg%,a& Ndú; flf¾' ãi,a f;,a m%Odk jYfhka m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxYj, Ndú; lrkq ,efí' th" wvq m%udKhlska" lDIsl¾u" ld¾ñl iy jdKsc wxYj,o fhdod .efka' by;

úfudapkhkag wu;rj" bkaOkfhys we;s i,a*¾ m%udKh wkqj i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ ^SO2&jdhqj o úfudapkh fõ' ms<sldldrl hehs y`ÿkajkq ,nk fnkaiSka jHq;amkak j¾. rdYshla o Lksc f;,a oyk jdhqj, wka;¾.; fõ72' ner f;,a - Wÿka f;,a iy bkaOk f;,a- oykfha§ o oDYH

m%udKj,ska" fkd±jqKq yhsfv%dldnk ^HC& o ÿula f,i fmfkk ldnka wxY= o úfudapkh

flf¾' f;,aj, wvx.= w`M m%udKh o úIalïNh 10μm ^PM10&g jvd wvq fyda 2'5 μm ^PM2'5&g

jvd wvq fyda jk wxY=uh øjH ^PM& f,i j¾.SlrKh fldg we;s SPM úfudapk iòyd u. mdohs' n/;s fldgi - f.dfrdaiq f;,a" bkaOk f;,a" Wÿka f;,a iy fndr f;,a - n,Yla;s" l¾udka;

iy jdKsc wxYj, Ndú;hg .efka' tajdfha GCV" ãi,a iy .efid,Skaj, tu w.hhkag jvd ie,lsh hq;= uÜgulska wvq jk w;r" w`M uKaä úYd, m%udKhlska iukaú; úh yels neúka

úYd, m%udKhla SPM úfudapkh isÿ úh yelsh' tajdfha i,a*¾ m%udKho ^2-4]& jeä fyhska

msgfjk ÿfuys jeä SO2 m%udKhla ;sìh yelsh' kuq;a fïjdfha wvq msßjeh lrK fldg f.k" ;dm n,d.drj, iy l¾udka;j, oyk lghq;= iòyd fuu bkaOk Ndú;hg .efka'

LPG" kd.ßl iy w¾O kd.ßl m%foaYj, wdydr msiSfï bkaOkhla f,i mq`M,aj Ndú; lrkq

,efí' th" nyq, f,i l¾udka; iy jdKsc wxYj,o fhdod .efka' SI txðka iys; r: jdyk l%shdlrùu iòyd o iq`M jYfhka Ndú;hg .efka' .efid,Ska fyda ãi,a fyda oykh lsÍfï§ isÿ

jkjdg jvd wvq ¥IKhla LPG oykh u.ska we;s flf¾' Lksc fndr f;,a msßmyÿ lsÍfï§

50

we;sjk w;=re M,hla jk kema;d" Y%S ,xldfõ § úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lsÍfuys,d ixhqla; pl% g¾nhsk l%shd lrùu iòyd fhdod .efka' wfkla bkaOkj,g jvd kema;dj, wvq ¥IK úfudapk uÜgula mj;S' 6'2 .,a w`.=re oykfha § isÿjk úfudapkhka .,a w`.=re ;sfnk rgj, Y;j¾I .Kkdjla ;siafia ;dm m%Njhla f,i mq`M,a wdldrhlg th Ndú;hg f.k ;sfí' wo" th nyq, jYfhka n,Yla;s wxYfhys o wvq m%udKhlska úfYaIfhka jdfka iy isfuka;s l¾udka; we;=<;a ld¾ñl wxYfhyso fhdod .kq ,efí' f;,a oykfha§

isÿjk úfudapkhg iudk wdldrhlg .,a w`.=re oykfha§ o úúO yhsfv%dldnk ^HC&" SO2 iy khsg%ckaj, Tlaihsv we;s lrjhs' by< w`M m%udKhla ^10] isg 20] olajd& iys;j .,a w`.=re oykh jk úg úYd, m%udKhla ieye,a¨ w`M iy Wÿfka m;af,a ;ekam;a jk m;a, w`M iEfoa' .,a w`.=re n,d.dr l%shdlrùu iòyd ñ,g .kakd .,a w`.=rej, w`M 10]lg jvd wvx.= fkdùu

fuys,d jeo.;a fõ' ãi,aj, fuka" .,a w`.=rej, we;s w`M SPM úfudapkh 1]lska fyda Bg jvd wvq m%udKhlska wvq lsÍu msKsi úoHq;a iÓ;sl wjfËaml fyda *eì%la fmrK fyda Ndú; lrkq

,efí' úfudapk md,k moaO;s fkdue;s .,a w`.=re n,d.dr ^CPP&j,ska ¥Il ksl=;aùfï o¾Yl 39fjks iy 40fjks rEmj, ±lafõ'

39 jk rEmh ( lekvdfõ .,a w`.=re n,d.drlska ksl=;a flreKq úfudapk ÿïf.dgq73

40 jk rEmh ( USAys fglaidiaj, msysá.,a w`.=ren,d.drhl .,a w`.=re f.dvj,a iy úfudapk74

.=jka w`M (fly ash) hkq .,a w`.=re w`Mj, ishqï øjH ^65] isg 80] olajd& jk w;r tajdfha ,CIK" oykh flfrk .,a w`.=rej, m%Njh iy w`M fmrKfha j¾.h u; ròd mj;S' .=jka w`M" fmdia*ria" fmdgEishï" f.kao.ï" fndafrdaka" iy fjk;a f,day fyda f,day jeks uQ, øjH Wod(

riÈh" leäñhï" Bhï" wd¾iksla" fif,akshï" hkdÈfhys m%Njhlao fõ75' is,sld ^SiO2" we¨ñkd

Âl2O3&" f*ßla Tlaihsâ ^Fe2O3&j,ska iy ghsfÜkshï vfhdlaihsâ ^TiO2&j,ska ieÿKq >khkaf.ka .=jka w`M iukaú; fõ' hdka;%sl l%uj,ska fyda wjfCIamKj,ska fyda ,efnk .=jka w`M 35] isg 75] olajd m%udKhl idudkHfhka uhsfl%dak 10g jvd wvq úIalïNhla ;sfí76' w`Mj,g wu;rj" m%Njfhka m%Njhg fjkia jk" by< f.kao.ï m%udKhla .,a w`.=rej, ;sfí'

idudkHfhka" th 0'5-4]l mrdihl mj;S' .,a w`.=re oykh lsÍfuka i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ ^SO2& ckkh flfrk w;r úfudapkh jk m%udKh bkaOkfha wvx.= f.kao.ï m%udKh u; ròd mj;S' f;;a jdhq mú;%ldrl fhdod .ekSu fyda yqKq.,a Ndú; fldg ÿïf.dgq i,a*¾yrKh

^FGD& lsÍu jeks fndfyda ;dCIKhla SO2 úfudapkh wvq lsÍu i|yd fhdod .kS' fuu l%shdj,s idudkHfhka n,d.drfha ld¾hCIu;djh wvq lrjk iy tys m%d.aOk yd fufyhqï msßjeh by<

ouk fyhska" n,d.dr l%shdlrejka ta iòyd t;rï m%sh;djhla fkdolajhs' SO2 wjfCIamKh lsÍu iòyd yqKq.,a fhdod .ekSfuka" n,d.drfhka ksl=;a flfrk wmøjH iu. ksoyia flfrk

51

¥Il u; le,aishï i,af*aÜ iy i,a*hsÜ iys; Wl= ñY%Khla ksmofõ' yqKq.,a fmdf<dfjka ydrd .ekSuu mßißl .eg¨ we;s lrjhs'

ck;djf.a fi!LHh u; by< n,mEula iys; .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska ^CPP& ksl=;a flfrk .=jka w`Mj, wvx.= tla f,dayhla jkafka" riÈhhs' jd;hg ksl=;a ùfuka miq j¾Idj Tiafia riÈh fmdf<dj u; iy c,dY u; ;ekam;a ù c, pl%hg we;=,a fõ' c,dYh ;=< §" iuyr nelaàßhdjka u.ska riÈh" tys ldnksl iajrEmh jk fu;s,a-u¾lß njg mßj¾;kh fõ' wdydrodu Tiafia mshjfrka mshjrg by<g .uka lsÍu ksid iy È.=ld,Skj Ôj;ajk u;aiH úfYaI ;=< by<u idkaøKhla iys;j fu;s,a-u¾lß tl;=ùu isÿfõ'iakdhq-OQ,l fu;s,a-u¾lßj,g ck;dj ksrdjrKh isÿ jkafka tu ridhkh wvx.= u;aiHhska wkqNj lsÍu u.sks77' wêl fu;s,a-u¾lß m%udKhka iys; u;aiHhska .,a w`.=re n,d.dr wjg c,dYj, olakg ,efnk nj jd¾;d ù we;' riÈh úfudapkh ùfuka isÿjk wk;=r yd iïnkaOj riÈh úfudapkh

md,kh lsÍu msKsi iïuq;shla flgqïm;a lsÍug UNEP uQ,sl ù lghq;= lr ;sfnk w;r th f,dalfha cd;Ska úiska 2013 § ms<sf.k ;sfí ^8 jk rduqj n,kak&' riÈh fukau úI iys; nerf,day iy f¾äfhda-kshqla,hsv ;sîu ksid .,a w`.=re n,d.drj, jir .Kkdjla ;siafia tl;= jqKq w`M úYd, m%udKhla uyck fi!LHhg ;¾ckhla we;s lrjhs' oykh lsÍfï§ fuu øjH úkdY fkdjk kuqÿ ÿï l=`Mkq Tiafia msgjk ÿudrh iu. iq<fÕa yudf.k hk .=jka w`M f,i fyda Wÿkaj, m;af,a tl;= jk m;a, w`M f,i fyda mßirhg msg flf¾' fïjd" wk;=rej" miqj bj;g f.k hk f;la ;nd .kakd .nvd ;gdl fj;g f.k hkq ,efí' iSñ; N+ñ m%udKhla iys; Y%S ,xldfõ" mßißl fyda iudc .eg¨ we;s lr fkdf.k .,a w`.=re w`M iy wfkl=;a ¥Il bj;a lsÍug iqÿiq ìïlvla fidhd .ekSu we;a; jYfhkau .eg¨jls' j¾I 2002 cQks udifha ksl=;a lrk ,o úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys mßißl iy fi!LH n,mEï

ms<snò cd;Hka;r n,Yla;s ksfhdað; wdh;kfhys (IEA) m%ldYkhlg wkqj" .,a w`.=re n,d.drhl .,a w`.=re oykh flfrk úg úúO j¾.fha úI iys; nerf,day fmdf<dj fj;

ksl=;a lrkq ,nhs' fuu jd¾;djg wkqj" .s.d fjdÜ meh ^GWh& tll úÿ,sn, W;amdokhl§

o¾YSh jYfhka iskala 323 g" Bhï 220 g" riÈh 117 g" ksl,a 110 g" fl%dañhï 114 g" wdiksla 76

g" fldfnda,aÜ 29 g" iy leäñhï 5 g wdoS m%udKj,ska ksl=;aùu isÿfõ78' n,d.drfhka mßirhg ksl=;a flfrk nerf,dayj, i;H m%udKh ;SrKh lsÍu iòyd mq;a;,fï .,a w`.=re n,d.drfhka ,nd.;a w`M ksheÈ úYaf,aIKh lsÍu wjYHfõ' fu.dfjdÜ 900la jQ mq;a;,u .,a w`.=re n,d.drh Wmrsu wkaoñka l%shd;aul jk úg" jd¾Islj

80]la jQ n,d.dr idOl (plant factor) uÜgfï§ 6"300 GWhl muK úÿ,s W;amdokhla wfmaCId

flf¾' ixfYdaê; mdol ;;aj (base case) b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" iuia; Odß;dj" 4"100 MWla

jk ;j;a .,a w`.=re n,d.dr 14la ^12«300 MW¬2«250 MW& 2032 jk úg wm rfÜ ia:dms; lrk

nj CEB tys 2013 LTGE ie,iqfuys m%ldY lr we;' fuys woyi jkafka" fuu ish¨ n,d.dr l%shd;aulj mj;sk úg" mq;a;,u n,d.drh u.ska úfudapkh jk úI iys; nerf,day m%udKh fuka 4 .=Khlg wêl m%udKhla 41 jk rEmfhys ±lafjk mßÈ j¾I 2032 jk úg jd¾Islj mßirhg msg flfrkq we;s njhs' tjeks úI iys; nerf,day úfudapk u.ska uyckhdf.a

fi!LHhg fyda mßirh u; fyda idudkHfhka we;sjk n,mEu ;lafiare lsÍu iòyd CEA fyda

CEB fyda lsisÿ m%h;akhla ord fkdue;' 6'3 ;dm n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapkhka

52

bkaOk oykfhaos jd;fhka ,nd .kakd Tlaiscka bkaOkj, m%Odk ix>gl jk" ldnka ^C& iy

yhsv%cka ^H2& iuÕ m%;sl%shdlr tajdfha wvx.= Yla;sh ksoyia flf¾' oyk l=àrh ;=< jQ jd;fhys we;s Tlaiscka iy khsg%cka" ta ;=<WIaK;ajh by< k.sk úg" khsg%cka Tlaihsv

(NOx)f,i fmdÿfõ y`ÿkajkq ,nk NO, NO2, N2O3 iy O2N5 jeks úúO jQ O-N ixfhda. ksmojkq we;' n,d.drj,ska msgfjk ÿudrfhys úfudapkh jk ix>gl m%udKh" bkaOk j¾.h" ;sfnk wxY=-ud;%d øjH" Wÿfka j¾.h" úfudapk md,k ;dCIKhka hkdÈh we;=,;a fndfyda idOl u; ròd mj;S' mßirh ¥IKh ùu j<lajd,Sug kshñ; iSudjka ;=< úfudapk uÜgï wvq lsÍug n,d.dr ;=< úfudapk md,k WmlrK ia:dms; lsÍu ful, wksjd¾h fldg we;'

41 jk rEmh( 3700 MW .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska isÿjk jd¾Isl OQ,l

nerf,day úfudapkhka

úfudapkh jk m%Odk jdhqj CO2 jk w;r th bkaOkj, we;s ldnka TlaislrKh ùfuka

ksmofõ' IPCC m%ldYkfhys iòyka mßÈ" bkaOkfhys wvx.= ldnka m%udKhka jk .,a w`.=re

iòyd 25'8 gC/MJla" f;,a iòyd 20'2 gC/MJla" iy jdhq iòyd 15'3 gC/MJla u; tajdfh

oykfhka úfudapkh jk CO2 m%udKhka ròd mj;S79' wKql Ndrj, wkqmd;hg wkqj" gC

tallfhka oelfjk úfudapkh jkq ,nk ldnka m%udKh 3'667ka .=K lsÍfuka" gCO2

tallfhka oelafjk CO2 úfudapkh njg mßj¾;kh l< yelsh' i,a*¾ m%;sY;h ãi,a iòyd 0'5]la o i,a*¾ wvq bkaOk f;,a iòyd 1'5]lao iy .,a w`.=re iòyd 0'7-2'0]lao fyda f,i o

SO2 úfudapkh jk m%udKh bkaOk j¾.h wkqj ròd mj;S' ksoyia jki,a*¾ ^S)" SO2 njg mßj¾;kh lsÍu" tajdfha wKql Ndr w;r wkqmd;h jk 2ka .=K lsÍfuka isÿ l< yelsh'

úfudapkh jk NO2 m%udKh" Wÿfka ie,iqu iy oyk ;dCIKh u; ròd mj;S' ia-jdhq iòyd

úfYaIfhka ie,iqï lrk ,o Wÿka iu. NOx úfudapkh jk m%udKh b;d wvq uÜgul mj;ajd .ekSug yels fõ' iajdNdúl jdhqj, i,a*¾ fyda lsisu w`M j¾.hla fyda fkdue;s ùu ksid" ia-

jdhq n,d.drj,ska SO2 fyda wkjYH øjH úfudapkh ùula isÿ fkdfõ'úúO uÜgïj,ska úfudapkh wvq lsÍu iòyd l%u Wmfhda.s lr .kakd" hqfrdamSh ix.uh ;=< msysá ;dm n,d.dr 400lska muK úfudapkh jk ¥Il ms<snò wOHhkhla hqfrdamSh mßir ksfhdað;dh;kh 2008 j¾Ifha oS isÿ lrk ,oS' úúO j¾.fha n,d.dr yd iïnkaOj fuu úfudapkj, idudkH uÜgï

15 jk j.=fjys oelafõ' ia-jdhq n,d.drhlska úfudapkh jk CO2 m%udKh .,a w`.=re n,d.drhlska úfudapkh jk m%udKh fuka 59]la muK jk neúka iy ia-jdhq oykh u.ska

>k wjfYaI fyda w`M fyda lsisjla ckkh fkdjk neúka tu.ska úfudapkh jk SO2 iy wxY= m%udKh fkdi,ld yeßh yels ;rï iq¿ fõ'

53

ish .Kkla n,d.dr wdjrKh lrñka lekvdj" USA" iy fulaisfldaj we;=<;a W;=re weußldkq rgj, 2004 j¾IfhaoS isÿ lrk ,o ;j;a wOHhkhloS idudkH ;dm n,d.drhla u.ska

SO2, 3.79 g/kWh" NOx,1.66 g/kWh" riÈh 0'023 g/MWh iy CO2 893 g/kWh m%udKhkaúfudapkh jk nj fidhd f.k we;80' iEu tla tla n,d.drhlskau isÿjk úfudapkh o jd¾;d lr we;' flfiafj;;a" úúO ;dCIKhka iòyd m%;sM, fjk fjku iòyka fkdlr tlg f.dkqlr ;sfnk fyhska j¾;udk jd¾;dfõ fuu w.hhka Ndú; fldg fkdue;'

15 jk j.=j ( hqfrdamSh rgj, ;dm n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapk uÜgï81

m%Njh ¥IKldrl úfudapkh mg/MJ

CO2 SO2 NO2 TSP

.,a w`.=re-oyk ST 94,600 765 292 1,203

ãi,a-oyk CCGT 74,100 228 129 2

bkaOk f;,a-oyk CCGT 77,400 1,350 195 16

iajNdúl jdhq-oyk CCGT 56,100 0.7 93 0.1

6'4 cd;sl úfudapk m%ñ;Ska ;u rgj,a úiska jdhqf.da,hg ksl=;a lrkq ,nk úfudapk kshdukh lsÍug nyqmd¾Yúl ksfhdað;dh;k fukau fndfyda rgj,a o jd;h ^jdhquh& ms<snò m%ñ;Ska iïu; lrf.k we;' fuu ¥IKldrl jdhq" n,Yla;s" ld¾ñl iy m%jdyk wxYj,ska úfudapkh ùu isÿúh yelsh' fuu m%ñ;Ska foj¾.hla we;' m<uqjekafkka ´kEu n,d.drhlg úfudapkh isÿ lsÍug bvÈh yels Wmßu ¥IKldrl m%udKh úia;r flfrk w;r" fojekafkka jdhqf.da,Sh jdhq

.=Kd;aulNdjh ÂAQ& f,i ye`Èkafjk lsishï ld, iSudjla ;=< jd;fha /£ ;sîug bvÈh yels Wmßu ¥IKldrl m%udKh úia;r flfrkq we;' l,lg by; oS ;dm n,d.dr o we;=,;aj

wp, m%Nj iòyd CEA úiska úfudapk m%ñ;Ska ilia lrk ,o w;r" fïjd fkdfndaod hdj;ald,Sk lrk ,oS' flfiafj;;a" fuu m%ñ;Ska n,d;aul lsÍfï .eiÜ ksfõokh ;ju;a

ksl=;a fldg fkdue;' hdj;ald,Sk lrk ,o jd¾;dfõ tall mg/Nm3 f,i m%ldY fldg we;s

w;r óg fmr m< flreKq jd¾;dfõ tu tall mg/MJ f,i olajd ;snqKs' hdj;ald,Sk lrk ,o

m%ñ;Ska" mg/Nm3 tallh Ndú; fldg 16 fjks j.=fjys olajd we;s w;r zzkj n,d.dr iòyd

fufyhqï ks¾KdhlZZ kï jQ n,d.dr ms<snò f,dal nexl= m%ldYkfhys imhd we;s mßj¾;k

idOl fhdod .ksñka" mg/MJ tallj,g mßj¾;kh l< tlS mßj¾;s; w.hhlao ta iu. imhd

;sfí ^4 jk rduqj n,kak&82' wdikak jYfhka NO2 iy SO2 iSud 50]lska wvq lsÍu olajk fulS hdj;ald,Sk m%ñ;Ska fmroS ilia lrk ,o m%ñ;Skag jvd fndfyda fihska oeäj wkq.ukh l< hq;= fõ'

16 jk j.=j( Y%S ,xldfõ ;dm n,d.drj,g n,mdkq ,nk úfudapk m%ñ;Ska83

¥Ilh wjir Èh yels Wmßu úfudapk

mg/Nm3

wjir Èh yels Wmßu úfudapk

mg/MJ*

bkaOkh f;,a .,a w`.=re jdhq f;,a .,a w`.=re jdhq ;dCIKh CCGT ST CCGT CCGT ST CCGT

i,a*¾j, Tlaihsv 850 850 75 238 298 20 khsg%ckaj, Tlaihsv 450 650 250 126 228 68 wxY=uh øjH 150 150 100 42 53 27

) flgqïm;a m%ñ;Skays oS ;sfnk mg/Nm3 j,g mßj¾;kh lrk ,o w.hhka

54

úfudapk wLKavj wëCIKh lsÍu iòyd WmlrK l%shdldrS ;;ajfha mj;ajdf.k hEu n,d.dr l%shdlref.a j.lSu jk w;r tu f;dr;=re ffokslj mÍCIdlsÍu iòyd kshduk wêldßh fj;

tlS f;dr;=re idrdxY.;j ,nd .ekSug wjYH myiqlï ie,ish hq;=h' EIA jd¾;dj wkqu; lsÍu iòyd imhd we;s fldkafoaishla jk" m%dfoaYSh wêldÍka fj; fuu o;a; ,nd .ekSug yelsjk fia ta iòyd bvlv ie,iSu o isÿ l< hq;=h' flfiafj;;a" uyck msßlaiSu iòyd mq;a;,u n,d.drfha úfudapk ms<snò o;a; ,nd .ekSfï bv lv fkdue;' fuu wdh;kfha wod< n,OdÍka fj;ska fuu o;a; ,nd.ekSug wOHhk lKavdhu oerE m%hka;h o ksIaM, úh'

´kEu m%Njhlska msg lrkq ,nk nerf,day iòyd mg/Nm3j,ska m%ldY flfrk Wmßu iSud o Y%S

,xld flgqïm;a m%ñ;Skays úia;r fldg we;s w;r tu w.hhka 17 jk j.=fjys wka;¾.; fldg we;'

17 jk j.=j( nerf,dayj, m%ñ;Ska iy ksrSlaIs; úfudapk

úfudapkh jQ f,dayh

US EPA úfudapk m%ñ;Ska84

g/GWh

ksrSlaIs; úfudapk m%udKhka

g/GWh

Y%S ,xld úfudapk flgqïm;a m%ñ;Ska

mg/Nm3

Bhï 9.1 220 0.2

riÈh 1.4 117 0.01

fl%dañhï 3.2 114

4 jk rduqj( ¥Il úfudapk uÜgï m%ldY flfrk tall

n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk uÜgï m%ldY lsÍu iòyd úúO wdldr ;sfí' l=vd wkdjrKlhla ÿï l=¿kqj,g we;=,a lsÍu u.ska idudkHfhka ¥IK uÜgï uek.kq ,nk w;r" ÿï l=¿kq jdhqj, wvx.= ¥Il m%udKh ñY%K wkqmd;slhla f,i ñ,shkhlg fldgia

^PPM& f,i m%ldYhg m;a lrkq ,efí' ta iu.u ÿï l=¿kq jdhq m%fõ.h o uek .kq ,efí' miqj iòyka l<jdhq m%fõ.h Ndú; fldg ñY% lsÍfï wkqmd;slh ÿï l=¿kq jdhq

talSh mßudjlska úfudapkh jk m%udK njg mßj¾;kh lrkq ,efí' WIaK;ajh OoC iy

tla jdhqf.da,Sh mSvkh iòyd ilik ,o mßudj jk ÿï l=¿kq jdhqj idudkH

>kógrhl ^g/Nm3& wvx.= jk ¥Il m%udKh oelafjk m%;sM, .%Eïj,ska ^g& m%ldYhg m;a

flf¾' iuyr úgñ,shkhl ;sfnk fldgia .Kk ^ppm& f,ig wu;rj" ;dm Yla;s

fhojqï tallhlg úfudapkh flfrk.%Eï .Kk f,i g/MJu.skafyda ksmojk ,o úÿ,s

Yla;s tllhlg úfudapkh flfrk .%Eï .Kk f,i g/kWhu.ska fyda fufyhqïlrejka iy m%ñ;Ska kshduk ksfhdað;dh;khl úfudapk m%ñ;Ska m%ldY lsÍu isÿ lrhs' fïjd úúO tallj,ska m%ldY lsrSu n,d.drfha ld¾hidOkh m%ldYs; m%ñ;Ska iu. ixikaokh lsÍu wmyiq ld¾hhla jkq we;' oykfhaoS ckkh jk ÿï l=¿kq jdhq mßudj" ojd,k bkaOk j¾.h u; ròd mej;Su" iy fhojqï ;dm Yla;sh úÿ,s Yla;sh njg mßj¾;kh lsÍu" n,d.drfhys ld¾hCIu;djh u; ròd mej;Su fya;= fldg f.k tla tallhla ;j;a tallhla njg mßj¾;kh lsÍu Rcq ld¾hhla fkdjkq we;' fuu mßj¾;k idOl ;dm n,d.dr fufyhqï ks¾Kdhl ms<snòj jQ f,dal nexl= m%ldYkhl n,d.dr iòyd ilia lrk ,oaola jk w;r tlS idOl fuu wOHhkh iòyd fhdodf.k we;' fuu m%ldYkfhys" .,a w`.=re" f;,a iy jdhq fhohqï

;dm tall GJla oykh lsÍfuka W;amdokh jk ÿï l=¿kq jdhq m%udKh ms<sfj<ska 350" 280

iy 270 Nm3 f,i olajd ;sfí' ld¾hCIu;djh 50] iy 35] jk n,Yla;s n,d.dr iòyd

GJtll ;dmYla;s fhojquloS W;amdokh jk úÿ,s Yla;sh ms<sfj<ska kWh 139la iy 97la fõ'

55

ksl,a 1.8 110

wd¾iksla 1.4 76 0.1

fldfnda,aÜ 0.9 29

leâñhï 0.2 5 1

6'5 jdhqf.da,Sh .=Kd;aul nfjys m%ñ;Ska

Y%S ,xldfõ jdhqf.da,Sh jdhq .=Kd;aulNdjfhys ÂAQ& m%ñ;Ska 1994 oS m%:u jrg .eiÜ u.ska m%ldY lrk ,oS' bka wk;=rej fïjd" 2008 j¾IfhaoS ixfYdaOkhg ,la lrk ,o w;r" ;dm n,d.drj,g wod< tlS w.hhka 18 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' tfukau" 2005 j¾Ifha oS ixfYdaOkh

lrk ,o c.;a jdhqf.da,Sh .=Kd;aulNdjh ms<snò f,dal fi!LH ixúOdkfhys ^WHO&

fufyhqï ks¾Kdhl o fuu j.=fjys wka;¾.; fldg we;85' PM10 iy PM2'5 iòyd Y%S ,xldfõ

m%ñ;Ska WHO ks¾foaY fldg we;s w.hhkag jvd fo.=Khla oeä nfjka wvqh' jdhqf.da,Sh

jd;fhys mej;sh yels PM10 iy PM2'5 Wmßu idkaøKhka AAQ ia:dms; lrk ,o m%ñ;Ska ;=< meyeÈ,sj iòyka flreK o úfudapk m%ñ;Ska iïmQ¾K wxY=uh øjH uÜgï ms<snò muKla iòyka fldg we;' n,d.dr ÿï l=¿kqj, fuu mrdñ;sl fol fjku wëCIKh lrkq ,nkafka o hkak ms<snòj iel iys;h'

18 jk j.=j( Y%S ,xldfõ jdhqf.da,Sh .=Kd;aul ;;aj m%ñ;Ska86

¥Ilh

ksrSlaIs; ld,

wka;rh

wjir Èh yels Wmßu uÜgu μg/m3 Y%S ,xldj ^2008 oS

ixfYdaê;& WHO ^2005& fufyhqï ks¾Kdhl

khsg%cka vfhdlaihsâ

jd¾Isl

24 h

08 h

01 h

100

150

250

40

200

i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ

24 h

08 h

01 h ñ'10

80 120 200

20

500

PM10 jd¾Isl

24 h

50 100

20 50

PM2'5 jd¾Isl

24 h

25 80

10 25

;dm n,d.drhlska we;s flfrk AAQ w.hhka úirK wdlD;shla Ndú; lsÍu u.ska .Kkh l< yelsh' wod< ld<.=Ksl iy N+ ,CIK o;a; n,d.drfha úfudapk o;a; iu. wdlD;shg iemhsh hq;= w;r" túg" fok ,o úfudapk uÜgïj,ska krlu ;;aj hgf;a n,dfmdfrd;a;= úh

yels idkaøK uÜgï" wdlD;sh u.ska ;SrKh flfrkq we;' .Kkh lrk ,o w.hhka AAQ

m%ñ;Ska ;=< msysgkafka kï muKla jHdmD;sh iòyd wkque;sh m%odkh flfrkq we;' AAQ m%ñ;Ska n,d;aul lsÍfuka wjg m%foaYh wdikakfha msysgd ;sìh yels úfudapk ckkh flfrk ;dm n,d.dr fyda l¾udka;-ixLHdj ms<snò iSudjka mekúh yel'

56

mq;a;,u CPP ms<snò EIA jd¾;djg wkqj n,d.drfha jQ tall ;=fkkau wod< jdhq wdjrK

l,dmh ;=<g mehla we;=<; msg flfrk SO2 idkaøKh" wjir oS we;s Wmßu m%udKfhka

80]la" tkï" 162mg/m3 úh hq;= nj úirK wdlD;sh ;lafiare lr ;sfnk nj fuys,d iòyka

l< hq;=h87' úirK wdlD;s weia;fïka;= ms<snòj fndfyda wmeyeÈ,s ;;aj mj;sk w;r" iq<x ;;ajfhys úp,;djh fya;= fldg f.k i;H w.hhka" wjir oS we;s m%ñ;Ska wNsNjd hk wjia:d

we;súh yelsh' CEBys LTGE ie,eiafuys fmkajd we;s mrsos iEu n,d.drhlgu Odß;djh 300

MWla jk kj .,a w`.=re n,d.dr 12la ia:dms; lsÍug kshñ;h' wu;r .,a w`.=re n,d.dr ia:dms; lsÍu iòyd oekg n,d.drh msysgqjd we;s ia:dkh f;dard .ekSu fuksid je<fla'

j¾;udk CPP msysgd ;sfnk ia:dkh fujeks n,d.dr tlla fyda folla ia:dms; lsÍu msKsi i,ld ne,Sug fndfyda ÿrg bv ;snqks' 6'6 udkj fi!LHh flfrys úfudapkj, n,mEu ;dm n,d.drj,ska úfudapkh flfrk m%Odk ¥Il iuyrla iy tajd u.ska fi!LHh iy mßirh u; isÿ flfrk n,mEï my; úia;r fldg we;' khsg%cka Tlaihsv by< WIaK;ajhla hgf;a l%shd flfrk oyk l=á ;=< we;s Tlaiscka iy khsg%cka tlsfkl

iu. l%shdlsÍfï m%;sM,hla f,i" m%Odk jYfhka NO iy NO2 jdhqj,ska iukaú; N-O

ñY%Khla ksmofjk w;r NOu.ska" úfudapkh flfrk khsg%cka Tlaihsvj,ska 90]la ksfhdackh flf¾88'

fuu Tlaihsv fol tlg .;a l, fmdÿfõ NOx f,i ye`Èkafõ' jd;hg ksl=;a flreKq úg oS

tys ;sfnk Tlaisldrl" úfYaIfhka O3 u.ska NO jdhqj" NO2 njg TlaislrKh fõ' fmdf<djg

wdikakfha mj;sk UV lsrK u.ska NO2" kej; NO iy O njg fjka lsÍula isÿ lrhs' fuys

fojekak O2 iu. iïnkaO ù O3 idohs ^5jk rduqj n,kak&' kd.ßl m%foaYj, >k óÿu we;s lsÍug odhl fjñka" ¥Is; jd;fhys mj;sk m%;sl%shdldÍ ldnksl ixfhda." fmdf<djg wdikakj

O3 ksIamdokh by< kxjhs' >kóÿu" fmKy,q mgl ms<siaiSu" weÿu W.% ;;ajhg m;a lsÍu" iy ksoka.; Yajik frda. flfrys uyckhd jeäfhka md;%ùu isÿ lrhs89'

khsg%cka Tlaihsv jeis c,h iu. m%;sl%shd lr khsá%la wï,h ^HNO3& iy khsg%ia wï,h

^HNO2& idok w;r tu.ska wï, jeis we;sfõ' fuu m%;sl%shd" fmfrdlais weisghs,a khsfÜ%Ü

^PAN& iy yhsfv%dldnk iu. m%;sl%shd lsÍfuka khsà%lD; ldnksl ixfhda. jeks fjk;a

khsg%ckSh úfYaI ixfhda. ksmoùu o isÿ lrhs89' khsfÜ%g iy HPO3fmdf<dj u; ;ekam;a jQ úg uyckhdf.a fi!LHhg iy mßir moaO;sj,g wys;lr n,mEï we;s lrhs19' udkj md,s; ksrdjrK wOHhk u; mokïj" ks¾foaYs; flá ld,Sk fufyhqï w.h jkafka" mehla iòyd

idudkH jYfhka 200 μg/m3l Wmßu NO2 idkaøKhls' WHO u.ska ks¾foaY lrkq ,en we;s"

Yajik frda. jeäùfï wjodku ms<snòj jQ wOHhk u; mokïjQ" È.= ld,Sk ks¾foaYs; fufyhqï

w.h jkafka" 40 μg/m3 l jd¾Isl idudkHhls90'

i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ fndrf;,a iy bkaOk f;,a o we;=,;aj .,a w`.=re fyda Lksc f;,a jeks i,a*¾ wvx.= bkaOk u.ska l%shd flfrk ld¾ñl ;dm ckl fyda ;dm n,d.dr fyda u.ska i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ úfudapkh lrkq ,efí' i,a*¾ wvx.= ãi,a f;,a iys;j ãi,a jdyk Odjkh flfrk úg o

fulS úfudapkh isÿfõ' SO2 jdhqj fnda.j,g" jkdka;rj,g" iy mig ydks lrk wï, jeis

57

we;s lsÍu" iy ú,a yd Èhmyrj,a wdï,SlrKh lsÍu isÿ lrhs' wêl uÜgïj,g fláld,Skj

iy wvq uÜgïj,g È.=ld,Skj SO2 idkaøKj,g ksrdjrKh ùu hk wjia:d folu" Yajik

wdndO we;sùu iy weÿu" FEV1 l%shdj ^;;amr 1loS n,lrk ,o Yajik mßudj& iy flá

wdYajdi we;s lrhs' f,dal fi!LH ixúOdkh ^WHO& u.ska meh 24l ksrdjrKhla iòyd 20

μg/m3 l iy úkdä 10la iòyd 500 μg/m

3l iSudjka mkjd we;' wxY=uh øjH

wxY=j,ska 50]la tajdfha jdhq.;sl úIalïNh 10μmg jvd wvq" PM10 f,i ye`Èkafjk iy

wkqrEmS w.h 2'5 μmg wvq PM2'5 f,i ye`Èkafjk wxY= foj¾.hlska wxY=uh øjH iukaú;fõ' by< w`M m%udKhla iys; bkaOk oykh jk úg fukau l=vq lsÍï iy weUÍï hk ld¾ñl l%shdj,shkaysoS o tajd úfudapkh flf¾' ffcjialkaOh oykh lsÍfï oS o wxY=uh øjH jeä m%udKhla úfudapkh lrhs' wxY=uh øjH fmrd bj;a lsÍu iòyd" úoHq;a iaÓ;sl wjfCIaml" nE. fmrK" iy jdiq<suh fjkalrK jeks úúO WmlrK ;sfí' bkaOk oykfhka úfudapkh

flfrk wxY=uh øjH" wj,ïNs; wxY=uh øjH ^SPM& fyda iïmQ¾K wj,ïNs; wxY=uh øjH ^TSP& fyda f,i y`ÿkajkq ,efí' fulS WmlrK u.ska ÿï l=¿kq lrd fhduq flreKq wxY=uh øjHj,ska wju jYfhka 99]lg jeä m%udKhla yiq lr.kakd nj mejfia' kj WmlrKhla tf,i l%shdl<old,h;a iu. fuu WmlrKj, ld¾hCIu;djh my< neiSu ksid jeämqr wxY=uh m%udKhla miq ld,hlos ksoyia

lr yerSug bv we;' ;jo úYd, wxY= fmßhdug;a PM2'5 o we;=,;aj l=vd wxY= ksoyia ùug;a

bv yßk jrKSh fmrKhla o ;sìh yelsh' 2005 WHO fufyhqï ks¾KdhlPM10" iòyd Wmßu

w.hhla f,i 20 ^jd¾Isl& iy 50 μg/m3 ^24 meh& ks¾foaY lrhs' PM2'5 iòyd ks¾foaYs; wkqrEmS

w.hhka jkafka ms<sfj<ska 10 iy 25 μg/m3 fõ' ;dm n,d.drj,ska ksoyia flfrk úúO

úfudapkj,g ksrdjrKh ùu u.ska we;s flfrk wdndO ms<snò 19jk j.=fjys úia;r flf¾'

19 jk j.=j ( jdhQ ¥Il lrK fldgf.k we;sjk fi!LHuh wdndO96

m%d:ñl ¥Il

oaú;Shsl ¥Il n,mEu

uhsfl%dak 10g iy uhsfl%dak 05g wvq úIalïNhla iys;

wxY=uh øjH ^PM10,

PM2.5&

yDo-mqmaMqhSh .a,dkHh ûIa;sIal jdyskS wdndO wdfrda.HYd,d .; lsÍï " ixl+, yDo wl¾ukH;djh" ksoka.; laf,dau m%odkh" <uqkaf.a ksoka.; leiai" my;a Yajik ,CIK" weÿu iys; leiai" u¾;H;djh( flá ld,Sk iy È.= ld,Sk ksrdjrKh lrK fldg f.k Ôú; wfmaCIdfjys wvqùu&

SO2 yDo-mqmaMqhSh .a,dkHh ^wdfrda.H Yd,d .; lsÍï" ffjoH Wmfoia ,nd .ekSu" weÿu" wikSm ksjdvq" iSud flreKq l%shd&" u¾;H;djh

SO2 i,af*aÜ wxY=uh øjHj,g iudkhs

NOx .a,dkHh ^Yajik" wCIs W;afldamkh&

NOx khsfÜ%Ü wxY=uh øjHj,g iudkhs

NOx = VOC ´fidaaka .a,dkHh ^Yajik wdfrda.H Yd,d .; lsÍï" iSud flreKq l%shdldÍ Èk" weÿu je<oSu" frda. ,CIK&

PAH" ãi,a oe,s" ms<sld

58

fnkaiSka" 1"3- ìhqgãka

CO .a,dkHh ^yDoa-jdyskS& u¾;H;djh îxl+, yDo wl¾ukH;djh&

vfhdlaiska ms<sld

As, Cd, Cr, Ni ms<sld" fjk;a .a,dkHh

Hg, Pb .a,dkHh îakdhq OQ,l&

u¾;H;djh iy .a,dkHh iòyd jQ Rcq fi!LHh msßjeh blaujd hk" ¥IKh u.ska we;s flfrk frda.S ;;aj lrK fldg f.k" frday,a .; lsÍï u.ska jev rdcldß fyda mdi,a fj; fyda jd¾;d fkdlsÍu iy rdcldßj, M,odhl;ajh wvq ùu u.ska wd¾Ólhg ydks ùu o isÿfõ' wdYajdi lrk ,o úg .eUqre fmKy¨ mglj, tajd ;ekam;a ùu fya;= fldg f.k tys

l%shdldß;ajhg ndOd meñKfjk neúka" PM2'5 wxY= ksoyia ùu je<elaùu jeo.;a fõ' WHO wOHkhlg wkqj" f,dj mqrd yDoaO jdyskS urKj,ska 5]la isÿjkafka wxY=uh øjH ¥IKh

u.sks91' PM2'5 idkaøKh 10 μg/m3 j,ska by< .sh úg weÿu frda.fhka fmf<k orejkaf.a

fmKy¨ l%shdldß;ajh FEV1 3'4]lska wvq jk nj USA EPA wOHhkhla fmkajd fohs92' PM2'5

idkaøKh jeä jk iEu 10 μg/m3la iòydu USAys yDoajdyskS urK 3-18]l m%udKhla by<

f.dia ;sfnk nj" ms<ssld" m%ckkh" iy yDoajdyskS n,mEï u; jdhq ¥IKfhys n,mEu ms<snò isÿ lrk ,o ;j;a wOHkhla u.ska fidhdf.k we;93'

5 jk rduqj ;dm n,d.drj,ska ¥Il iEfok wdldrh

¥Il iy wï, j¾Idj iE§ug odhl jk" oyk l=àrh ;=< iy jd;fhys isÿjk ridhksl m%;sl%shd iuyrla my; § we;'

oyk l=àrh ;=<

O2+ N2+ ;dmh NO + NO

O2 + M + ;dm O+O+M (M= WodiSk wKqj)

O + N2+ ;dmh NO + N

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S + O2+ ;dmh SO2

jd;h ;=<

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NO2 + UV NO + O ^m%Nd ú>gkh&

O + O2 + M O3 + M ^>k óÿu idok ´fidaka&

NO2 + O NO + O2

NO2 + N NO + NO

SO2 + 2O2 + M SO3 + SO3

j¾Idj we;s úg§

SO2 + H2O H2SO3i,a*shqria wï,h

SO3 + H2O H2SO4i,a*shqßla wï,h

NO2 + H2O H2NO3khsg%ia wï,h

2NO2 + H2O H NO2 + HNO3khsg%ia iy khsá%la wï,

3NO2 + H2O 2H NO3 + NO khsá%la wï,h

59

.,a w`.=re oykh u.ska l%shd lrk wfursldfj msyá ;dm n,d.drj,ska ksl=;a flreKq oe,s 2010 oS fkdfïrE urK 23"600la iy Yajik wdndO iys; frda.Ska 500"00lg wêl m%udKhla we;s

lrkakg fya;= jQ nj weia;fïka;= lr ;snqKs94' oe,s iy SO2, CO, yd NOx jeks fjk;a jdhq ¥Il" urK wkqmd;slh by< hEu" wdfrda.H Yd,d .; flfrk ixLHdj by< hEu l%shdldÍ Èk ixLHdj iSud lsÍu" iy Yajik frda. iòyd T!IO ,nd oSu iòyd msßjeh by< hEu we;=,;aj

udkj Y=NidOkh flfrys ;¾ck we;s lrhs' f,dal fi!LH ixúOdkhg ^WHO& wkqj" ãi,a r:j,ska msgflfrk jdhQka ms<sld we;s lsÍu" weianeiafgdaia" wd¾iksla" iy uiag¾â jdhqj jeks udrdka;sl úNjhla iys; ldKavhg th wh;aùu iy ãi,a wju ffokslj ksrdjrKh ùu wl%sh ÿïmdkh fuka ms<sld we;s lsÍu isÿ lrhs95' úlsrK kshqla,hsv j¾I 2007 foieïn¾ udifha m%ldYhg m;a lr ;snqKq zihkaá*sla weußlkaysZ ,smshlg wkqj97" zztlu Yla;s m%udKh ksmojk kHIaál n,Yla;s n,d.drhlg jvd 100 .=Khla úlsrK wjg mßirhg f.k hEu .,a w`.=re n,d.drhla u.ska úfudapkh flfrk ieye,a,q w`M u.ska isÿ flf¾ZZ' zzieye,a,q w`Mj, wvx.= hqf¾kshï" .,a w`.=re n,d.drfha wjg jQ mi iy c,h ;=<g ldkaÿ ùfuka" j.d N+ñj,g iy tu.ska wdydr flfrys n,mdk njZZ tu ,smsh ;jÿrg;a m%ldY lrhs' zz ÿï l=¿kq fijke,af,ysZZ- tkï" .,a w`.=re n,d.drhl ÿfuka ie;mqï Nd.fha isg ie;mqula ^lsf,daóg¾ 0'8 isg 1'6& olajd wrhla ;=< - Ôj;ajk ñksiqka úlsrK l=vd m%udKj,ska Wlyd .kq we;' wjg fjfik ñksiqka yg wjodkula we;s lrùfï yelshdjla iys;j" .=jka w`M" bvï f.dv lsÍfïoS ta ia:dkj,g" w;a yer ouk ,o m;,a" iy .,a j<j,a fj;g mqrjkq ,efí' fld<U úYaj úoHd,fha kHIaál úoHd fomd¾;fïka;=fjys úoHd{hska fofofkl= úiska 2013 foieïn¾ udifha mej;s Y%S ,xld úoHdNsj¾Ok ix.ufhys jd¾Isl ieisfhaoS bÈßm;a lrk ,o

m¾fhaIK m;%hl" mq;a;,u CPP fj;ska tl;= lr .kakd ,o .,a w`.=re w`M ksheÈ" hqf¾kshï" f;daßhï" iy fmdgEishï hk úlsrKYS,S kshqla,sfhdavj,ska iukaú; jQ nj;a" tajdfha úfYaIs; jQ l%shd" m<uqj iòyka lrk ,o kshqla,sfhdav hq., iòyd .,a w`.=re Wfoid jk f,dal idudkHh fuka isõ .=Khla jk nj o f;jekak iòyd th 7 .=Khla jk njo jd¾;d flreKs98' uyckhdf.a fi!LHh iòyd tajdfha we;s n,mEï ;ju;a ;lafiare fldg fkdue;'

60

7' n,Yla;s W;amdokfha ndysr msßjeh ndysr msßjeh f,i ye`Èkafjkafka ksIamdok l%shdj,shlg wod, tfy;a n,d.dr ysñlre úiska fkdork msßjeh fõ' tjeks msßjeh iòyd mßirhg isÿ jQ ydksh iy ksIamdok l%shdj,sfha§ we;s flreKq wys;lr n,mEï u.ska ydkshg m;ajQ uyckhdyg m%;sldr lsÍu iòyd iy fi!LH i;aldrh iòyd ork ,o msßjeh we;=,;a fõ' mßirhg isÿ jQ tjeks ydkshla h:d;;ajhg m;a lsÍug iy fi!LHdrCIKh iòyd jQ úhou imqrd.ekSu msKsi rchg ueÈy;a ùug isÿ jkq we;' jkaÈ f.ùula fkd,efnkq we;s fyhska" wys;lr n,mEug ksrdjrKh ùfuka we;s jk ´kEu wdndOhla fya;= fldg f.k isÿjk mSvdj" n,mEug ,lajQ ck;dj úiskau ord .ekSug isÿjkq we;' 7'1 ndysr msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu mßir ydksh iy uyckhdf.a fi!LHhg isÿjk ydksh fya;= fldg f.k rgg ±Íug isÿjk wd¾Ól msßjeh" ydkshg ,la jQfha l=uk mßirhka o hkak u; iy wys;lr n,mEug ksrdjrKh jQ whf.a ixLHdj u; ròd mj;S' tksid" kd.ßl m%foaYhl msysgqjk ,o n,d.drhlska .%dóh m%foaYhl msysgqjk ,o n,d.drlska we;s jk ydkshg jvd jeä ydkshla we;s lrhs' tf,iu" ck.yk >k;ajh jeä rgla iu. ixikaOkh lrk úg" ck.yk >k;ajh wvq rglg jehjk ndysr msßjeh wvq uÜgul mj;skq we;' ndysr msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu my; iòyka mshjrhkaf.ka iukaú; jkq we;'

m%Njfhka ksl=;a flfrk úfudapk m%udKh ;lafiare lsÍu'

ridhksl mßj¾;kh iy úfudapk úisÍu wdlD;s.; lsÍu'

ñksiqkag" i;=kag" fnda.j,g" øjHj,g" iy fjk;a ydkshg ,la jQ moaO;sj,g we;s jk ÿIl ksrdjrKh wdlD;s.; lsÍu'

ÿIlj,g ksrdjrKh ùu u.ska n,mEug ,lajQjkaf.a ydksfhys m%udKh ks¾Kh lsÍu'

m%;sM,h jk ydkshg uQ,Huh jákdlula ,nd§u' tjeks wNHdihla iòyd my; iòyka jD;a;slhkaf.ka iukaú; lKavdhula iyNd.s jkq we;'

l%shdlrùfï ;;ajhkag iy bkaOk j¾.j, fjkia nj jeks úp,k ;;aj hgf;a isÿjk úfudapkh ;lafiare lrkq ,nk" n,d.dr l%shd;aul lsÍfuys,d iyNd.sjk jD;a;slhska'

iq<x ;;ajhka" jdhqf.da,Sh WIaK;ajh iy fjk;a jdhqf.da,Sh iy foaY.=Ksl mrdñ;sl jeks úp,kh jk ndysr ;;aj hgf;a ÿIlj, jHdma;sh ks¾Kh lr jd;-wdjrK l,dmh ;=< ¥Il idkaøKh by< hEu ms<snò m%jk;d bosrsm;a l< yels uDÿldx. jD;a;slhska'

úfYaIfhkau" jeäysá" frda.S iy <uqka we;=<;a uyckhdf.a fi!LHhg isÿ lrk ,o ydksfha m%udKh ;lafiare lrkq ,nk iy tjeks ¥Il uÜgï by< hdfuka we;s jQ Yajik wdndO wjia:djkaf.a by< hEu" wdfrda.HYd,d .;lsÍu" .Dyia: m%;sldr" iy fkdfïrE urK ms<snò ;lafiare lrkq ,nk ffjoH jD;a;slhska'

by< .sh jdhq ÿIKh iy wï, jeis we;sùu jeks fjk;a isÿùï by< hEu lrK fldgf.k fnda.j,g iy mig isÿjk n,mEu ;lafiare lrkq ,nk lDIsld¾ñl jD;a;slhska'

by< .sh ÿIK uÜgï fya;=fldg f.k mqrd úoHd ia:dk u; isÿ jk n,mEu ;lafiare lrkq ,nk mqrd úoHd jD;a;slhska'

by< .sh ÿIKh" f.dvke.s,s iy wfkl=;a jHqyhkag isÿ lrk n,mEu ;lafiare lrkq ,nk bÈlsÍfï jD;a;slhka'

61

wk;=rej" wd¾Ól úoHd{hskag iy uQ,H lghq;= ms<snò jD;a;slhskag" uyckhdf.a fi!LHhg iy wfkl=;a fCIa;%j,g isÿlrk ,o ydksh uQ,Huh fldkafoais njg fm/<Su isÿfjkq we;' fuys§ o" fuu idOl iòyd¦ ksoiqkla f,i jdhq ÿIKh lrK fldgf.k mqoa.,fhl= ksis l,g fmr ñh hEu iòyd jákdlula wdfoaY ,nd §u jeks uQ,Huh jákdlula wdfoaY lsÍu iòyd ks¾Kdhl fkdue;s ùu ms<snò .eg¨jg uqyqK §ug jD;a;slhskag isÿjkq we;' mek k.sk m%Yakh kï( udkj Ôú;hl jákdlu id¾j;%sl o" fkdtfia kï rfÜ wd¾Ólh u; ròd mj;S o - wd¾Ólh by< o" jákdlu by< o@ hkakhs' mdßißl iy fi!LH ydksfhys msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kakd tla l%uhla jkafka" ydksh±ßh yels uÜgula olajd muKla ÿIKh my< ±óug wjYH flfrk wjlrK msßjeh .Kkh lsÍuhs' ydksfhys msßjeh iy wjlrK msßjeh w;r" 42 jk rEmfhys fmkajd we;s mßÈ iïnkaOhla ;sfí' hï jHdmD;shlska isÿ fjk jdhqf.da,Sh ÿIKh md,kh lsÍfï msßjehla fkdue;s kï" wjlrK msßjeh Y=kh jk w;r" ydksfhys msßjeh by< w.hhla .kS' wfkla w;g" ÿIK uÜgu Y=kHh wdikakhg f.k tkafka kï" ydksfhys msßjeh wju jk kuqÿ wjlrK msßjeh by< w.hhla .kS'

42 jk rEmh ( wjlrK msßjeh iy ydksfhys msßjeh w;r iïnkaO;djh úfudapk m%ñ;Ska ia:dms; lsÍfï§" ¥IK uÜgu ±ßh yels jk iy wjlrK msßjeh ord .; yels ueo ;;ajhla ;sìh hq;=h' idudkHhla f,i 1990-2020 ld,h iòyd" msßisÿ jd;h ms<snò mk; l%shd;aul lsÍu u.ska jdhq ¥IKh wvq lsÍu u; úhoï flfrk iEu fvd,rhla iòydu

fi!LHh u; we;s flfrk mSvdldÍ ;;ajh" USD 30lska wvqjkq we;s nj US EPA ;lafiare lr ;sfí'99 ksrdjrKh jQ ck.ykfha ksheÈhl fi!LHh u; we;s jQ n,mEu ;lafiare lsÍu iòyd ;j;a l%uhla jkafka" jdhq ¥IKh u.ska we;s lrk ,o wdndO y`ÿkd.ekSu iy tjeks frda.Ska yg m%;sldr lsÍug jeh jk msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍuhs' úfYaIfhka ngysr rgj, mj;ajdf.k hkq ,nk n,d.dr yd iïnkaO jQ ndysr n,mEï ms<snòj fndfyda fihska wOHhk isÿ lr we;s kuqÿ" fmrÈ. rgj,ska tjeks wOHhk iSñ; m%udKhla muKla jd¾;d ù we;'

fhdod .; yels ;j;a l%uhla jkafka" f.ùug leu;sùfï ^WTP& l%ufõoh kñka ye`Èkafjk" frda.S ùfuka je<lSu iòyd fl;rï uqo,la f.ùug leu;sfõo hkak uyck;djf.ka úuiSuhs' ±ä f,i jix.;fõ§ wOHhk isÿ lsÍu fjkqjg ñksiqkaf.a fi!LHh u; isÿ jk n,mEu ;lafiare lsÍu iòyd fuh läkï ud¾.hla f,i i,lkq ,efí' flfiafj;;a" zzm%;spdr ^ms<s;=re imhkakka yg fokq ,nk m%Yakj,g& ishü wdldrfha ldhl¾óh mCImd;s;ajhlg

62

iy iajhx .fõIKhlg md;% jkq we;ehsZZ l=laika ^Cookson&100 jd¾;d lf<ah' fi!LHdrCIK ikao¾Nh ;=<" tksid" iïu; Y=NidOk wd¾Ól úoHd isoaOdka;h u.ska b,a¨ï flfrk ukdj

m%;spdr olajk ;ks mßfNdack jl%hl wdldrhg WTP m%Yakj,g ,enqKq m%;spdr w¾: ksrEmKh lsÍu" tksid" b;du;a weoysh fkdyels fohla jkq we;' fuu l%uh" ysñlreg jákdlu ms<snòj jegySula fkdue;s hï NdKavhla fjkafoais lsÍu jeks wjia:djlg iudk l< yelsh' ñksiqka f.ùug leu;s jk uqo, i;H jákdlu fkdjk w;r iudcfhys b,aü u.ska ;SrKh lrkq ,nk jHdc w.hhla jkq we;' 7'2 ndysr n,mEï ms<snò iuyr wOHhkj,ska fidhd .;a f;dr;=re bkaÈhdfõ n,Yla;s wxYh u.ska fi!LH ydksh ms<snò taldnoaO wOHhkhla uqïndhsys ixrCIK l%shd Ndrh" .%SkamSia iu. tlaj isÿ lsÍfuka wk;=rej" zz.,a w`.=re m%dKh kihs-bkaÈhdfõ wmsßisÿu n,Yla;s m%Njhka u.ska we;s lrk ,o urK iy frda. ms<snò ;lafiarejZZ kï jQ" .,a w`.=re úfudapk u.ska we;s lrk ,o wmuK wmyiq;d u; fi!LH ms<snò n,mEu yd ta iòyd jeh jk msßjeh ;lafiare lrñka jd¾;djla ksl=;a lrkq ,en we;' fuu wOHhkh u.ska" úfYaIfhka 2011-2012 ld,h iòyd my; iòyka oE fidhdf.k we;'

bkaÈhdkq .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapk" jd¾Islj USD ñ,shk 3300la isg 4"600l msßjehla iys;j fkdfïrE urK 80"000 isg 115"000 olajd m%udKhla isÿ fldg we;'

<ud ^< wjqreÿ 5& u¾;H;djh" jd¾Islj USD ñ,shk 420l msßjehla iys;j 10"000la ùu'

USD ñ,shk 1"400l msßjehla iys; Yajik iy mmqfõ wmyiq;d iys; frda.Ska ñ,shk 633lg wêl m%udKhla isàu'

iïmQ¾K PM10 ÿIKhg ksrdjrKh ùfuka jd¾Islj USD ñ,shk 420l msßjehla iys; weÿu frda.Ska ñ,shk 20lg wêl m%udKhla isàu'

.,a w`.=re mdol úfudapk u.ska we;s lrk ish-oyia .Kka yDohdndO" yÈis frday,a wxY fj; jd¾;d lsÍï" wdfrda.H Yd,d .;ùï" iy i;sfha Èk u.yeÍï jeks wu;r fi!LH n,mEï'

fuu fi!LH n,mEï yd iïnkaO uq,Huh msßjeh jirlg USD ì,shk 3'3 isg 4'6 blaujd hEu'

n,Yla;s W;amdokfha§ Ndú; flfrk .,a w`.=rej,ska isÿ flfrk wys;lr fi!LH n,mEïj, úoHd;aul idCIs ms<snò b,sfkdhs úYaj úoHd,fha tßld n¾Ü we;=¨ msßi úiska ilia lrkq ,enQ" 2013 § ksl=;a flreKq jd¾;djla" ndysr msßjehla f,i m%ldY lrkq ,en we;s .,a w`.=re n,d.drj, fi!LHh ydks lsÍfï msßjeh ms<snò wOHhk lsysmhl m%;sM, úia;r lrhs101'

tmaiaghska Êpstein& úiska isÿ lrk ,o bka tla wOHkhla USY; 14la fi!LH msßjeh iòyd o"

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msßjeh US18/kWhla jQ nj fidhd f.k ;sfí' hqfrdamSh ix.ufha fndfyda rgj,a wdjrKh

lrñka ndysr msßjeh idudkH w.hhla f,i€Y; 1'6-3'8/kWhl fyda USY; 2'2-8'0 /kWHl fyda mrdih ;=< msysgk hqfrdamSh ix.ufhys idudðl rgj, isÿ lrk ,o wOhHhkhla ms<snòj o fuu jd¾;dj iòyka lrhs'102

EU wOHhkfhys fldgila f,i" EU rgj, fhdod .; yels mßÈ nerf,dayj,g fukau jdhq-

f.da,Sh ÿIl úfudapkhg wkqrEm ydks lsÍfï idOl ud,djla f¾n,a ^Rabl& iy iamerfvda

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m¾fhaIK m;%sldjla USAys úúO m%Nj u.ska úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lsÍfï msßjeh iy fi!LHh u; n,mEï iy foaY.=K úm¾hdi u; n,mEï foj¾.hu we;=,;aj ndysr iïnkaO msßjeh o

63

idrdxY.; fldg ;sfí' jÜgï lrk ,o jd¾Isl m%d.aOk msßjeh" bkaOk msßjeh" iy fufyhqï yd kv;a;= msßjehj,ska W;amdok msßjeh iukaú;fõ' fulS ix>gl" m%Nj msysá ia:dkj,g úfYaIs; jk ksid cd;sl jYfhka ia:djr w.hhla fuys§ olakg fkd,efí' tfyhska" fok ,o w.hhka m%jk;d w.hhka muKla jk w;r fïjd 21 jk j.=fjys olajd ;sfí'

20 jk j.=j ( ;dm n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk iòyd ydkslr idOl103

ÿIl ydkslr idOlh

€/kg ÿIlh

ydkslr idOlh

€/kg i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ 2.94 wd¾iksla 80.0

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wxY=uh øjH PM2'5 19.54 Bhï 1,600

ldnka vfhdlaihsâ 19.0 ksl,a 3.8

21 jk j.=j ( USAys W;amdokh iòyd iy ndysr n,mEï iòyd jQ msßjeh104

n,d.drh

msßjeh UScts/kWh Rcq

msßjeh fi!LH n,mEu

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ndysr msßjeh

iuia; msrsjeh

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ndysr msßjeh tl;= lrk ,o úg .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd wêl úhoula jeh jk nj fmfkkakg ;sfí' Wiia lrk ,o l=vq l< .,a w`.=re oykh iu. ldnka úfudapkh wvq lr,ñka n,d.drh ld¾hCIu ;;ajhg m;a jqjo m%d.aOk úhou by< ke. ;sfí' fï wjia:d fofla§u" .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska ,efnk n,Yla;sfhys ndysr msßjeh" ia-jdhq n,d.drj, tlS w.hhkag jvd mia .=Khlg wêl w.hhla .kS' ndysr msßjeh tl;= lsÍu" .,a w`.=re úÿ,sn,h" tfia fkdlrk úg§u jvd 85-170]lska by< ±fuk w;r ia-iòyd" ndysr msßjeh tl;= fkdlrk wjia:dfõ fuka 18-24]l by< hEula muKla jkq we;' ;jÿrg;a" .,a w`.=re n,d.drj, ndysr msßjeh" ia-jdhq n,d.drj,g jvd mia .=Khla jeäh' fmkajd § we;s mßÈ" W;amdokfhys Rcq msßjeh iu." ndysr msßjeh tl;= lrk ,o úg" .,a w`.=rej,ska ,nd.kakd úÿ,sn,h iòyd tys W;amdok msßjeh fuka 2'75 .=Khl msßjehla mj;sk nj;a" jdhq iòyd kï th tfia jeäjkafka 20]lska muKla nj;a fuu wOHhkh jeäÿrg;a fmkajd § ;sfí' ia-jdhqj,ska ,efnk úÿ,sn,hg jvd .,a w`.=re úÿ,sn,h ,dnodhl nj mejiqj o" ndysr msßjeh tl;= lrk ,o úg tys msrsjeh b;d wêl nj ;yjre fõ' 7'3 Y%S ,xldfõ l%shd;aul lrk ,o wOHhk Y%S ,xldfõ § isÿ lrk ,o fi!LHh u; jdhq ¥IKfhys n,mEu ms<snò jd¾;d ù ;sfnk tlu wOHhkh" fiakdkdhl iy fjk;a wh úiska isÿ lrk ,o" <uqkaf.a weÿu ;;ajh we;sùu iy jdhq ¥IKh w;r iïnkaO;djh ms<snòj wOHhkhhs'105 wdfrda.HYd,d fj; we;=<;a lrk ,o

64

Yajik wdndO iys; <uqkaf.a ixLHdj iy k.rfha jdhq ¥IK uÜgu w;r iyiïnkaOhla mj;sk nj Tjqyq fidhd .;ay' ffjoH WmfoaYh" T!IO ,nd oSu" iy wdfrda.HYd,d fj; hEu iòyd jk uQ,Huh w.hhka rg wkqj fjkiafõ' fi!LHdrCIKh iòyd jk úhou uyck;dj úiska fkdork" Y%S ,xldj jeks rgj," wod< msßjeh rch úiska orKq ,efí' Y%S ,xld rch 2013 oS fi!LHdrCIKh iòyd remsh,a ì,shk 100lg wdikak w.hhla mqkrdj¾;k úhoï f,i jeh fldg we;106' ishü wdfrda.HYd,d .; lsÍïj,ska 10]lg wdikak m%udKhla Yajik wdndOj,ska fmf<k frda.Ska nj o jd¾;d ù ;sfí107' fjk;a o;a; fkdue;s ùu ksid" Yajik wdndOj,ska fmf<k frda.Skag m%;sldr lsÍfuys msßjeh jd¾Islj Y%S ,xld remsh,a ñ,shk 10la muK jkq we;ehs Wml,amkh l< yel' .,a w`.=re n,d.dr jeä ixLHdjla l%shd;aul lsÍu fya;= fldg f.k jdhq ¥IKh by< kexùu isÿ jqjfyd;a fuu frda.Skag m%;sldr lsÍu iòyd wu;r úhou jk remsh,a ì,shk oyfha .=Kdldr lsysmhla rchg oeÍug isÿ jkq we;' Y%S ,xldj ;=< .,a w`.=re n,d.dr bÈlsÍfï n,mEu ksYaÑ;j oek .ekSfï mrud¾;h we;sj

f,dal nexl=fõ ^WB& fld<U ld¾hd,h Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s wxYfhys mßißl .eg¨ ms<snò wOHhkhla 2008 oS Èh;a lr ;snqKq w;r tys fidhd .ekSï bÈßm;a lrñka tlS jd¾;dj 2010 oS ksl=;a úh108' tjeks wOHhkhla" úirK wdlD;sh Ndú; fldg mq;a;,fï msysáiy idïmq¾ys fhdacs; n,Yla;s n,d.dr foflys jdhq wdjrKh l,dmh ;=< ÿIl idkaøKhkaf.a jHdma;sh ms<snò iúia;rd;aul úYaf,aIKhla isÿ lrkq we;ehs o tajdg ksrdjrKh jQ m%foaYfha fjfik ck;djf.a fi!LHh flfrys isÿjk n,mEu iy rfÜ ksIamdÈ;;djh by<u lDIsld¾ñl m%foaYh ;=< fulS jdhq wdjrK mssysàu ksid j.d lrk ,o fnda. u; isÿjk n,mEu wka;¾.; flfrkq we;ehs o wfmaCId lrk ,oS' flfiafj;;a" tjeks wOHhkhla isÿ lr fkdue;s w;r" ta fjkqjg" mßißl n,mEu ms<snò ud;Dldj my; iòyka flfrk mßÈ ;ks fþohlg muKla iSud fldg ;snqKs' zzjdhqf.da,Sh jdhq .=Kd;aul Ndjh iu. ix.;ùu iy;sl lsÍug mßißl we.hSfï oS ir, jdhq .=Kd;aul wdlD;s mámdáhlg wkqj Ndú; lrk w;r jvd;au ydksodhl ÿIl mek kexf.a È.=

ld,Sk jdhqf.da,Sh ¥IKfhaoSh ^l=vd i,af*ag wxY= SO2 j, TlaislrK ksIamdok f,i ieliSu jeks& m%;sM,h jkqfha Y%S ,xldfõ jdhqf.da,Sh i,af*agj,ska ie,lsh hq;= fldgila m%Njh jkafka bkaÈhdfõ .,a w`.=re oykh flfrk ;dm n,d.drj,ska jk w;r Y%S ,xldfõ .,a w`.=re jHdmD;sfhys úfudapkfhka ie,lsh hq;= fldgila id.rhg yudf.k hEu fyda fjk;a rgj,ska fl<jr ùu fyda isÿfõ' flfia jQjo" fudaiï ld,.=Khl" Wie;s ÿï l=¿Kqj,ska úisÍ hdu b;d mq`M,a jkq we;' mq;a;,u Y%S ,ldfõ iq<`. jeäu ia:dkhls' ;jo ck.yk >k;ajh wêl kd.ßl m%foaYj, jdhq .=Kd;aul idkaøKh úYd, jYfhka m%jdyk wxYfhys úfudapk u.ska ;SrKh lrkq ,nk w;r" ishqï wxY=uh ms<snò jQ wjia:dj uydud¾.fhka u;=jk ÿú,sj,ska jHdl+, lrkq we;ZZ' Y%S ,xldfõ isÿjk lsishï ¥IKhla iòyd bkaÈhdfõ ;dm n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapkj,g fodia mjrkq ,enqjo" fuu m%ldYhg Y%S ,xldfõoS fyda bkaÈhdfõoS fyda isÿ lrkq ,enQ lsisu wOHhkhla u.ska ;yjqre lr fkdue;' fudaiï foaY.=Khla hgf;a isÿjk úfudapk id.rh fj; yud f.k hk njla by; fþofhys iòyka lr ;sîu rg ;=<g lsisÿ n,mEula úfudapk u.ska isÿ fkdjk njla y`.jhs' flfiafj;;a" i;H ;;ajh jkafka" ksß; È. fudaiï ld,fha oS mq;a;,fï isg iq<`. úfudapk /f.k jhU m<df;a iy W;=re ueo m<df;a ¥Il ;ekam;a lrñka rg ;=<g yud tk w;r Bidk È. fudaiï ld,fha oS idïmQ¾ys isg iq<`. úfudapk /f.k kef.kysr m<df;a iy W;=re ueo m<df;a ¥Il ;ekam;a lrñka rg ;=<g yud tauhs' jif¾

fndfyda ld,hla ;siafia" CPP foflkau ksl=;a flfrk ¥Il /f.k tk fudaiï iq<x foflkau W;=re ueo m<d; mSvd úòS' fuf,i" wka;¾ fudaiï ld, fol yereKq úg jir mqrd ¥Ilfuu m%foaYhg ,eîu isÿjkq we;' tkuqÿ" f,dal nexl= jd¾;dj fuu .eg¨j úoHd;aul

65

wdldrhlg ie,ls,a,g f.k fkdue;s w;r" mßißl n,mEu fkdjeo.;a fia i,ld bj;a ,d we;' fuu m%foaYh ;=< iq<`. úiska .idf.k hkq ,nk jdhq-cks; ÿIl m%udKh jgyd .ekSu iòyd" wod< ld,.=Ksl o;a; iy foaY.=Ksl o;a; we;=,;a lr úirK wdlD;shla ilia lsÍug wjYHfõ' wjldYuh iy ld,h;a iu. fuu ;ekam;a ùfï YS>%;djh úirK wdlD;shla u.ska m%udKd;aul lsÍu isÿ lrkq ,eìh yels w;r" tu.ska ck;djf.a fi!LHh" iy fnda. u;

tajdfha n,mEu ;SrKh lsÍu isÿ l< yels kuqÿ" tjeks úYaf,aIKhla WB jd¾;dfõ isÿ fldg fkdue;' msgq 227l jd¾;dfõ b;sß fldgi wOHhkfha úIh fCIa;%h ;=< oS ;snqKq m%Odk wruqK

wduka;%Kh fkdlr" CEBys LTGE ie,eiafuys bkaOkhla f,i .,a w`.=re fhdod .ekSu idOdrKSlrKh lsÍu iy úu¾Ykhla lsÍu iòyd fhdodf.k we;'

tu WB jd¾;dfõu CPP úfudapkj, fi!LH n,mEu ms<snò wvq ;lafiarejla lsÍfï fkdu. hjk iq`M m%ldYhla isÿ fldg we;' ndysr msßjeh iïnkaOfhka jd¾;dj fufia mjihs' zzoeä

jix.;fõoS wOHhk jvd;a ixlS¾Kh" iy tys m%;sM,hla f,i wvq m%udKhla- EU iy USA yereKq fldg iy jvd uE;l oS Ökh ^foaYSh wxY=uh øjH b;d by< jk& o yereKq fldg - isÿ lr ;sfí' wfmaCIs; mßÈu" m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,o wOHhkfhys b;d úYd, wia:djrNdjhla

mj;sk w;r" 1kWh la iòyd ;lafiare lrk ,o ydksfha msßjeh 10jk j.=fjys oelafjk mßÈ

m%udK;ajfhka úúO jk w;r" tajd €cts 6$kWh ÛScts10$kWh& isg€cts 0.1$kWh olajd mj;S'

f,dfjials ^Lvovsky& iy fjk;a wh úiska l¾;D;ajh ±re" j¾I 2000 § m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,o

fjk;a WB jd¾;djlg wdY%s; f;dr;=rla fia imhd we;s €cts 0.1/kWhl w.hho we;=<;a fjk;a wOHhkhkaf.ka ,nd .kakd ,o .,a w`.=re n,d.dr iòyd ndysr msßjeh fndfyduhla

fuu jd¾;dj tys 10 jk j.=fjys ^rduqj n,kak& Wmqgd olajhs109' tlu WB jd¾;dj uQ,dY%hla

f,i imhñka" úfudapkh €/t f,i m%ldY flfrñka" SO2, wxY=uh øjH iy NOx ;ks úfudapk iòyd fuu jd¾;dj ydksfha msßjeh imhhs' úYd,;aj .Khg jvd fnfyúka wvq" hqfrdamfha isÿ lrk ,o fjk;a wOHhkj, m%;sM,j,g jvd fulS m%;sM, w;alrf.k we;af;a ÈhqKqfjñka mj;sk rgj, by< ck.ykhla iys; k.rj,ska ^nexfldla" ueks,d" uqïndhs" ieka;shdf.da iy kd.idls& neúka tajdfha w.h jeä úh hq;= njh' fuys§" .eg¨j jkafka ifodia w.hla Wmqgd ±lajQ úg tlS w.h fjk;a jd¾;dj, Ndú; lrk

,ÿj miq wjia:dj, i;H w.hla f,i ms<s.ekSug ,la ùuhs' ksoiqkla f,i" CEB tys 2013

LTGE ie,eiafuys ^7'11 wxYh& iudc iy mßißl ydksh ms<snò b,a ï wjia:dj idlÉPd

lsÍfï§ 2010 WB jd¾;dfjka ,nd .;a 0'1 € cts/kWh w.h iudc iy mßißl ydksh iòyd uQ,H

jákdlula f,i Wmqgd olajd we;' by; iòyka WB jd¾;dfõ 10 jk j.=fjys ydksfha msßjeh

iòyd imhd we;s 6'0-0'1 €cts/kWh w.hhkaf.ka wvqu w.h Wmqgd ±laùug CEB ;SrKh lr we;s nj fmfkkakg ;sfí' fuh" .,a w`.=re n,d.dr m%.=Kkh idOdrKSlrKh lsÍu iòyd .,a

w`.=rej,ska isÿjk fi!LH ydksh wj;lafiare lsÍug .kakd ,o meyeÈ,s W;aidyhls' CEB" ;u

2013 LTGE ie,eiafuys iudc iy mßir ydksfha msßjeh wka;¾.; fldg ;sfnKq we;ehs m%ldY flfrk wjia:djla we; ^weuqKqu 7'20&' flfiafj;;a" ndysr msßjeh h:d¾:jd§ fkdjk wvq

w.hhla CEB fhdodf.k ;sfnk neúka meyeÈ,s f,iu tu ie,eiau .,a w`.=re mdol fjk;a jd¾;dj,ska fjkia fkdjk nj lsj hq;=h' 7'4 Y%S ,xldj iòyd hqfrdamSh ydkslr idOl fhdod.ekSu ;dm n,d.drj,ska isÿjk úfudapk lrKfldg f.k isÿjk ydksfha msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍfï§" isÿ jQ iïmQ¾K ydksh ksrdjrKh jQ ck.ykh u; hefma' ;dCIKsl úoHd yd bxðfkare úoHd

66

íafÜ%,shdkq welvñh u.ska isÿ lrk ,o zzúÿ,sn,fha ie`.jqKq msßjehZZ ms<snò wOHhkhl§"

ck.yk >k;ajh 100 mqoa.,hska/km2 úh hq;= nj ;lafiare fldg ;sfnk hqfrdamhg jvd

íafÜ%,shdfõ wvq ck.yk >k;ajhg .e,fmk mßÈ EU o;a; mßudKh wvq lrk ,§110' Y%S

,xldfõ§" idudkH ck.yk >k;ajh 2012 ix.Kkhg wkqj" 323 mqoa.,hska/km2 fõ' mq;a;,u

CPP fj;ska isÿ flfrk úfudapkhg ksrdjrKhùug bv ;sfnk mq;a;,u iy l=reKE.,

Èia;%slalj, tu w.hhka ms<sfj<ska" 264 iy 348 mqoa.,hska/km2 fõ' tfyhska" tu j.=fjys §

;sfnk EU ydkslr idOl" jhU m<df;a iy EUj, idudkH ck.yk >k;ajj, wkqmd;h jk idOlh 3ka .=Klr mßudKh jeä lrk ,§' fuf,i" Y%S ,xldjg fhdod .; yels f,i

mßudKh by< kexjQ ydkslr idOl US cents/g tallj,ska m%ldY lrñka 22 jk j.=fjys olajd we;

6 jk rduqj ( .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.drj,ska mßißl ydks msßjeh

iSudiys; wd¾Ól WmfoaYk iud.u (ECA), RMA iy ERM'

m%foaYh SO2

^€/tonne&

wxY=uh øjH

^€/tonnes&

NOx

^€/tonne&

.,a w`.=re iòyd iïmQ¾K ydksfha msßjeh

^€-cent/kWh&

fl%dtaIshd" idf.%í ^w& 13,483 24,218 19,265 6.0

tlaiag¾ka B ^we& 10,450 15,400 15,700 4.0

t'cd' tlaiag¾iaa ^wd& 6,820 14,060 5,740 2.0

mD;=.d,h tlaiag¾ka B ^b& 4,959 5,975 5,565 1.8

EU DG mßirh ^îgd o;a;mdolh& ^wE& 5,200 14,000 4,200 1.6

f,dal nexl=j ih k.r wOHhkh ^B& 96 1,723 255 0.1

(a) Ekonerg Study, Table 6.4-6, 2002

(b) AEA, Power Generation and Environment, UK Perspective, Report AEAT 3776, 1998

(c) J. Spadaro and A. Rabl, Air Pollution Damage Estimates: the cost per kg of pollutant, Ecole des Mines de

Paris, Centre d‘Energetique

(d) M. Holland and P. Watkiss, Estimates of the marginal external costs of air pollution in Europe: Benefits

Table Database:BeTa, EU DG Environment, 2001

(e) CEETA, Implementation in Portugal of the ExternE accounting Framework, 1998. Table 3.20.

(f) K. Lvovsky, G. Hughes, D. Maddison, B. Ostrp and D. Pearce, Environmental Costs of Fossil Fuels, A

Rapid Assessment Method with Application to Six Cities, World Bank, Environment Department, Paper

78, October 2000,

ydksfhys msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu msKsi" úúO bkaOkj,ska l%shd;aul flfrk ;dm n,d.drj,g

fhdod .; yels jk f,i NOx, SO2 iy wxY=uh øjH iy úfudapk idOl iEu tlla iòydu wod< ydkslr idOl fhdod.ekSug wjYH fõ' Y%S ,xldfõ jir .Kkdjla ;siafia ;dm n,Yla;s

n,d.dr lsysmhla l%shd;aul jqj o tajdfha úfudapk idOl ms<snòj o;a; /ialr fkdue;' CEBys

LTGE ie,eiau ;dm n,Yla;s n,d.dr iòyd úfudapk idOl imhk kuqÿ ^9'4 wxYh& fïjd mj;sk n,d.drj, i;H wëCIK w.hhka fkdfõ' ±kg mj;sk n,d.drj,ska ,nd.;a o;a; u; mokïj .,a w`.=re iy jdhq n,Yla;s n,d.dr iòyd idudkHhla f,i fmr§ ,nd.;a úfudapk idOl íafÜ%,shdkq wOHkhfhys iòyka lr we;s w;r" fuu jd¾;dj iòyd tlS w.hhka fhdod f.k we;' flfiafj;;a" fndfydauhla ixj¾ê; rgj,a ;dm n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd ãi,a f;,a fhdod fkd.kakd w;r" tksid" cd;Hka;r m%Njj, ãi,a n,d.dr iòyd o;a;

10 jk j.=j ( HH&C iy ld¾ñl wxYj, m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

67

fkdue;' tfyhska" ãi,a n,d.dr iy GT n,d.dr iòyd úfudapk idOl CEB LTGE ie,eiafuka ^9'6 jk j.=j& ,nd .kakd ,§'

ld¾hCIu;djh CPP iòyd 35]la" CCGT iòyd 46]la" iy GT n,d.dr iòyd 30]la f,i

Wml,amkh lrñka g/MJ tallj,ska § we;s w.hhka" g/Wh tallj,ska iukaú; w.hhka njg

mßj¾;kh lrk ,oS' i,a*¾ vfhdlaihsâ ^SO2& iòyd úfudapk idOl iEu bkaOkhlu wvx.= i,a*¾ m%udKh u; r\ mj;S' hqfrdamSh rgj, fhdod .kakd" 20 jk j.=fjys imhd we;s ydkslr

idOl u; mokïù Y%S ,xldj iòyd mßudKh by< kexjQ ydkslr msßjeh ^DC& .Kkh lsÍfï§

iEu bkaOkhla iy fhdod .kakd ;dCIKh iòyd ;lafiare l< fuu úfudapk idOl ÊF& fhdod .efka' my; iòyka iólrKh Ndú; fldg .Kkh l< úg fuu úfudapk msßjeh ,efnk w.hhka 22 jk j.=fjys olajd we;'

DC(UScts/kWh) = 3.0* 1.31*EF(g/kWh) *DF(€/kg)/10

idOlh 3" hqfrdamhg jvd ^100/km2& W;=re ueo ^NWP& iòyd ^306/km& jQ ck.yk >k;aj jeä

nj fmkaùu iòyd;a" idOlh 1'31" hqfrda" US fvd,¾j,g mßj¾;kh lsÍu iòyd;a fhdod f.k

;sfí' iEu ¥Ilhla fya;= fldg f.k Bg wod< ydkslr msßjeh" wod<DF ^20 jk j.=j& iy EF ^22 jk j.=j& w.hhka by; iólrKhg wdfoaY lsÍu u.ska ;SrKh flf¾' iEu ¥Ilhlau fya;= fldg f.k ;ks ix>gl tl;= lsÍu u.ska hï ;dm n,d.drhla iòyd jQ iïmQ¾K ydkslr msßjeh ,nd .kq ,efí'

22 jk j.=j ( ;dm n,d.dr ksid isÿ flfrk ndysr msßjeh

n,d.drh bkaOkh i,a*¾ m%udKh

]

úfudapk idOlh

g/kWh ndysr msßjeh

USctc/kWh SO2 NO2 PM

ST .,a w`.=re 0.7 5.46 3.09 0.41 11.70

CCGT ãi,a 0.5 1.76 2.19 0.04 4.70

CCGT bkaOk f;,a 1.5 5.72 2.19 0.09 9.48

GT ãi,a 0.5 2.70 3.36 0.06 7.22

CCGT NG - - 0.34 0.02 0.48

Y%S ,xldjg fhdod .; yels ydkslr

idOlh ÛScts/g& 1.15 1.14 4.61

.,a w`.=re iy bkaOk f;,a iòyd ydkslr msßjeh fj; jeäu odhl;ajhla ,efnkafka SO2 j,sks' fiiq ishü bkaOk yd iiòk úg ia-jdhq j,ska l%shd;aul flfrk n,d.dr iòyd ydkslr msßjeh fkdie,lsh hq;= ;rï jk nj ksÍCIKh fldg ;sfí'

68

8' iajNdúl jdhqj mrsfNdackhg y÷kajdoSu iajNdúl jdhqj jdKsc uÜgfuka ksIamdokh lr rg ;=<g f.k wd úg th n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i Rcqju Ndú;d lsÍu fyda .nvd lsÍfuka wk;=rej miqj m%fhdackhg .; yels jk mßÈ

>k øjHhla ^hQßhd& njg fyda øjhla ^DME fyda fu;fkda,a& njg fyda m;a lsÍu fyda isÿ l< yelsh' fuu lghq;a; iòyd ;sfnk úl,am ms<snòj fuu mßÉfþofhys idlÉPd flf¾'

8'1 iajNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd §u iòyd we;s b,a ï wjia:d (scenarios) iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y÷kajdoSfï m<uq m%uqL;djh úh hq;af;a fï jk úg ia:dms;

fldg we;s CCGTn,d.dr ;=k ^03& ia-jdhqj u.ska l%shd lrùuhs' fuu n,d.dr ;=k ojfia jeä

ld,hla l%shd;aul ;;ajfha ;nd .ekSug" ia-jdhqfjys wfmaCIs; iïmdokh jk 70 Mcf/d m%udKj;a jkq we;' iemhqu by< kxjk ,o úg" mj;sk wfkl=;a jdhq g¾nhsk n,d.dr ls%hd;aul lsÍu Wfoid;a" wkd.; n,d.drj,g jdhq Ndú;h y`ÿkajd§ug;a" m%jdyk" l¾udka;" iy .Dyia: yd jdKsc wxYj,g ia-jdhqj y`ÿkajd§ug;a yels jkq we;' Y%S ,xldjg" kj mdßfNda.sl NdKavhla jk neúka" fndfyda m%;s,dN thska ,nd .; yels jk kuqÿ kj n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i jydu th ms<s.ekSug uyckhd uq,ska ue,s jkq we;' iajNdúl jdhqj iudc

Ndú;hg ms<s.ekSu" NG1 iy NG2 f,i y`ÿkajkq ,nk b,a¨ï wjia:d fol hgf;a isÿjkq we;'

n,Yla;s wxYfha yer wka wxYj, NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" wvq uÜgfï ia-jdhq

mrsfNdackhla fhdacs; w;rNG2b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jeä uÜgfï ia-jdhq mrsfNdackhla fhdacs; h' tuksid fuu wjia:d fol wvq b,aüiy jeä b,aü jYfhkao y÷kajd we;'n,Yla;s

wxYfha CEBys LTGE ie,eiafuys imhd we;s .,a w`.=re mdol iy iajNdúl jdhq mdol hk

wjia:d fol u; mokï jQ ia-jdhq mrsfNdack NG1 iy NG2 wjia:d foflysos fhoùug

fhdacs;h' n,Yla;s fkdjk fhdod .ekSïys§" NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" l¾udka; lsysmhla

wdrïN lsÍug ie,iqï fldg ;sfnk w;r wu;r l¾udka; NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a wdrïN flfrkq we;' 8'2 .Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYh

.Dyia: iy jdKsc wxYfhys LPG" N+ñf;,a" ãi,a iy bkaOk f;,a mßfNdackh flfrk kuqÿ"

m%uqLj Ndú; flfrk bkaOkh" LPG fõ' tksid" ;dm Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍug fhdod .kakd

LPG muKla" ia-jdhqj u.ska wdfoaYkh flfrk njg fhdackd flf¾' tkuqÿLPG fuka mdßfNda.slhska fj; myiqfjka f.k hd yels is,skavr ;=< iïmSvkhlg ,lalr ia-jdhqj mdrsfNda.slhskg iemhsh fkdyelsh' ta iòyd ;sfnk úl,am jkafka( ^w&;ks ksjdi fmdl=re" uy,a ksjdi ixlS¾K" iy jdKsc jHdmdrj, jdih lrk mdßfNda.slhska fj; mrsY%h wdYs%;j t<k ,o k< moaO;shla Tiafia iajNdúl jdhqj iemhSu msKsi

CNG/LNG/.;a jdylj,ska ia-jdhqj ,nd f.k" uOHu tallhl tmrsoafokau .nvd lr ;eîu'fuu iïmSä; jdhqj fyda øj lrk ,o jdhqj wvq mSvkhlska yd idudkH WIaK;ajfhka

69

mdrsfNda.slhdg ,nd oSu msKsi k< moaO;shg iemhSug wjYH WmlrK lÜg, fuu tallfha ;sìh hq;=h' fuu tallj,g wjYH fiajdjka iemhSu msKsi n,h,;a l%shdlrejka m;al< hq;= w;r mdrsfNda.slhskag wjYH k< iïnkaOhka ia:dms; lsrSu iy kv;a;=j o Tjqka úiska l< hq;=h'

^wd& iajNdúl jdhqj DME njg mßj¾;kh lr LPG yd iïnkaOfhka isÿ flfrk wdldrhg tlu há;, myiqlï iy fnod yeÍfï moaO;s Ndú; lr.Dyia: is,skavr u.ska fnod yeÍu'

DMEj,ska lsÍu iòyd is,skavrj,g iy lEu msisk Wÿkaj, hï úlrKhla isÿ lsÍug wjYH jkq we;' fuu úl,amh msg m<d;aj,g iajNdúl jdhqj m%p,s; lSrSu blauka flfrkq we;'

iajNdúl jdhqj rgg y`ÿkajdÿka jydu HH&C wxYh fj; jdhqj iemhSu isÿ fkdflfrkq we;ehs wkqudk flf¾' há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍug iy uyck;dj úiska fulS moaO;sh ms<s.kq ,eîug yd wod< wêldÍka u.ska wdrCIK ms<sfj,j,a ms<snò lghq;= lsÍu msKsi .; jk ld,h ie,l+ úg ta iòyd ksis ie,eiaula ms<sfh,lr .ekSu iòyd jir lsysmhla .; jkq

we;' tksid" NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d foflys§u HH&C wxYh fj; ia-jdhqj m%p,s; lsrSu 2026 § wdrïN flfrkq we;ehs Wml,amkh lr we;'

NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dfõ§" m<uq jir ;=< 4] lska LPG wdfoaYkh isÿ flfrk w;r 4]l jd¾Isl by< hEula iys;j fuu ia-jdhqj 2040 jk úg 60]la olajd l%ul%ufhka by< hefjkq we;' Bg

wkqrEmSj LPG mßfNdackh my< niskq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a LPG iy ia-jdhq jd¾Isl mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh 43 rEmfhys olajd we;'

43 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj ;=<" LPGj, mßfNdackfhys wkqrEmS wldrhg wvq ùula iys;j" 2026 § 6]lska wdrïNù jd¾Islj 6] ne.skajeäù 2040 jk úg90]la olajd ia-jdhqfj mrsfNdackh by<

hefjkq we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a bkaOk mßfNdackh 44 jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

b,a¨ï wjia:d fol hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh o ia-jdhqj, ffoksl b,aü >k wä ñ,shkj,ska m%ldY lr 23 jk j.=fjys olajd ;sfí' 8'3 ld¾ñl wxYh ld¾ñl wxYfhan,Yla;s wjYH;djfhka jeä m%udKhla imqrd.kq ,nkafka ffcjialkaOj,ska ùu lrK fldg f.k" iuia; n,Yla;s b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a" n,Yla;s iy m%jdyk wxY iu. iiòk l," 13 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s mßÈ ld¾ñl wxYh ;=< fmdis, bkaOk mßfNdackh b;d

wvq uÜgul mj;S' j¾;udkfha LPG iy bkaOk f;,a jeks bkaOk ;dm Yla;sh W;amdokh

70

lsÍu iòyd fhdod .kakd l¾udka; iòyd tlS bkaOk fjkqjg ia-jdhq Ndú; lsÍu msKsi myiqlï iemhsh yelsh' wdrïNhla f,i" l,dmh ;=<u f.dvk.k ,o .nvdj, ;eîu iòyd

CNG/LNG f;d. jdylj,ska m%jdykh lsrSfuka miq ld¾ñl l,dm we;=,; k< u.ska jdhQ iemhSu isÿ l< yelsh'

NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a" 2023ka wdrïN lr l¾udka; iòyd ia-jdhq y`ÿkajd fokq we;' fmr iòyka lrk ,o b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" jd¾Isl jeäùu 4] la iys;j 2040 jk úg 72] olajd l%udkql+,j by< kxjñka tajdfha mßfNdackh uQ,slj 4]l YS>%;djhlska wdrïN lr

LPG iy bkaOk f;,a iòyd wdfoaY lrñka iajNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd fokq we;' jdhq

mrsfNdackhHH&C wxYhg iudk wdldrhlg isÿ jkq we;ehs wfmaCID flf¾' Bg wkqrEmSj"

LPG iy bkaOk f;,a mßfNdackh my< niskq we;' .,a w`.=re iy f;,a f,i tlg f.dkq

lrk ,o LPG" bkaOk f;,a" ãi,a" iy N+ñf;,a we;=<;a fjk;a bkaOk iu. ia-jdhqfj mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh 45 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' .,a w`.=re" ãi,a iy N+ñf;,aj, mßfNdackh flfiafj;;a fkdfjkiaj mj;skq we;'

23 jk j.=j ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys jdhq iòyd b,aü

jir NG1 NG2

LPG

PJ/y

NG

PJ/Y

NG

Mcf/d

LPG

PJ/Y

NG

PJ/Y

NG

Mcf/d

2026 21.29 0.89 2.31 20.84 1.33 3.45

2027 21.83 1.90 4.94 20.88 2.84 7.37

2028 22.34 3.05 7.92 20.82 4.55 11.84

2029 22.82 4.35 11.30 20.65 6.49 16.88

2030 23.25 5.81 15.12 20.35 8.69 22.58

2031 23.64 7.46 19.41 19.91 11.15 29.00

2032 23.96 9.32 24.23 19.30 13.92 36.20

2033 24.21 11.39 29.63 18.52 17.03 44.27

2034 24.38 13.72 35.66 17.53 20.49 53.28

2035 24.46 16.31 42.40 16.31 24.36 63.35

2036 24.43 19.19 49.90 14.83 28.68 74.56

2037 24.27 22.40 58.25 13.07 33.47 87.03

2038 23.97 25.97 67.52 10.99 38.80 100.89

2039 23.51 29.93 77.81 8.55 44.71 116.25

2040 22.87 34.31 89.20 5.72 51.26 133.28

71

44 jk rEmh ( NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a LPG iy bkaOk f;,a mßfNdackh 8] lska wdrïN ù 2034 jk úg 96]lska wjika ù wk;=rej 100]la f,i mj;sk mßos 8] l jd¾Isl jeäùula iys;j ia-jdhqj jvd ;Sj% f,i isÿjkq we;' ia-jdhq iy bkaOk f,i f,an,a lrk ,o f;,a ish,af,ys isÿ flfrk mßfNdackfhys j¾Okh 46 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' b,a¨ï wjia:d fol hgf;a

bkaOk f;,a iy LPG iòyd jk b,aü wdfoaYkh lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk" Mcf/dj,ska m%ldY flreKq ia-jdhq m%udKh iu. m%CIsma; mßfNdack w.hhka 24 jk j.=fjys fmkakqï fldg we;'

45 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

72

46 jk rEmh ( NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh 8'4 iajNdúl jdhq wuq øjH f,i .efkk l¾udka; ksIamdokh mq`M,a lsÍfuka wk;=rej ia-jdhq w;sßla;hla mj;skafka kï" 4'8 wxYfhys idlÉPd lr we;s mßÈ ia-jdhq wuq øjH f,i Ndú; flfrk úúO kj l¾udka; wdrïN lsÍug yelsjkq

we;' hQßhd" wefudakshï i,af*aÜ" DME" fu;fkda,a" t;fkda,a iy weisála wï,h fï hgf;a ie,lsh yelsh' fuu l¾udka; fnfyduhla iòyd" miq wjia:djl fu;fkda,a njg mßj¾;kh flfrk" wefudakshd ksIamdokh lsÍu m<uqj isÿ l< hq;=fõ' wm rg ;=< b,aüla mj;sk fmdfydr j¾. w;ßka tlla f,i hQßhd ye`Èkaúh yelsh' hQßhd

fgdka tlla ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd ia-jdhq 23 kcf o< jYfhka mßfNdackh flfrk nj ;lafiare lr we;'111 iajNdúl jdhqfjka hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍfï msßjeh" m%d.aOk msßjeh iy ia-jdhq msßjeh mokï fldg f.k ;lafiare l< yelsh'

24 jk j.=j ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a ld¾ñl wxYfhys jdhq iòyd we;s b,aü

jir

NG1 NG2

.,a w`.=re

f;,a jdhq .,a

w`.=re f;,a jdhq

PJ/Y PJ/Y PJ/Y Mcf/d PJ/Y PJ/Y PJ/Y Mcf/d

2023 4.46 13.95 0.36 0.94 4.46 13.59 0.72 1.88

2024 4.64 13.92 0.74 1.92 4.64 13.18 1.48 3.84

2025 4.83 13.89 1.13 2.94 4.83 12.76 2.26 5.88

2026 5.02 13.86 1.54 4.00 5.02 12.32 3.08 8.01

2027 5.22 13.84 1.97 5.11 5.22 11.87 3.93 10.23

2028 5.43 13.82 2.41 6.28 5.43 11.40 4.83 12.55

2029 5.65 13.80 2.88 7.49 5.65 10.92 5.77 14.99

2030 5.87 13.79 3.37 8.77 5.87 10.41 6.75 17.54

2031 6.11 13.77 3.89 10.11 6.11 9.88 7.78 20.23

2032 6.35 13.76 4.43 11.53 6.35 9.33 8.87 23.05

2033 6.61 13.75 5.01 13.01 6.61 8.75 10.01 26.03

2034 6.87 13.75 5.61 14.58 6.87 8.14 11.22 29.17

2035 7.15 13.74 6.25 16.24 7.15 7.98 12.01 31.23

73

2036 7.43 13.74 6.92 17.99 7.43 8.30 12.36 32.13

2037 7.73 13.73 7.63 19.85 7.73 8.64 12.72 33.08

2038 8.04 13.73 8.39 21.82 8.04 9.01 13.11 34.09

2039 8.36 13.72 9.19 23.91 8.36 9.40 13.52 35.16

2040 8.70 13.72 10.05 26.12 8.70 9.81 13.95 36.28

bkaÈhdfõ fmdfydr fomd¾;fïka;=jg wkqj" 500"000t/yr Odß;djhla iys; idudkH hQßhd

ksIamdokd.drhla iòyd USD ñ,shk 200l muK msßjehla ±Íug isÿ jkq we;112' wkqrEmS 10]l

jÜgula iòyd jd¾Isl msrsjeh idOlh (annuity factor) jk 0'106 fhdod .ekSu u.ska iy j¾I

30l wd¾Ól wdhqld,hlg" ksIamdokd.drfhys jd¾Isl msßjeh USD 42/tla jkq we;' ñ, b,a ï

wjia:d ;=kla ^BTU ñ,shkhlg USD 5"10 iy 15& hgf;a hQßhd fgdka 01la ksIamdokh lsÍug

wjYH flfrk fmdaIK f;d.hla iòyd msßjeh ms<sfj,ska" fgdka tllg USD 118" 236 iy 254la jkq we;' jd¾Isl ksIamdokd.dr msßjeh;a iu." lïlre" bkaOk" fufyhqï iy kv;a;= we;=<;a fjk;a msßjeh iòyd n,d.dr jd¾Isl msßjefhka 10]la tl;= lrk ,o úg" jdhq ñ,

b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k iòyd ms<sfj,ska" hQrshd fgdka tllg msrsjeh " USD 164" 282" iy 400 olajd jkq we;' uE; ld,fha§ Y%S ,xld rch úiska hQßhd ñ, § .ekSu msKsi fgkavr m;a leòjk ,o úg" ta

iòyd fgdka tllg USD 550l muK ñ,la iys; ,xiq m;a ,eî ;snqKs113' tksid" iajNdúl

jdhqj iòyd BTU ñ,shkhlg US 15la jeks by< ñ,la iys;j jQjo" iajNdúl jdhq fmdaIK f;d. f,i Ndú; fldg hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu ,dNodhlh' hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd iajNdúl jdhq w;sßla;hla ;sìh yels jkafka 2025ka muK miqj ùu ksid" iy ta jk úg

iajNdúl jdhq ñ<USD 5/Btu ñ,shkh olajd wvq fj;ehs wfmaCId lrk neúka" ia-jdhq Ndú;d

lr hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu u.ska b;sß lr .; yels uqo, fgdka 1lg USD 386la jkq we;'

j¾;udkfha" rch jehjk msßjefhka 1$3lg fmdfydr úl=Kñka" jd¾Islj LKR ì,shk 42'5 l iykdOdrhla imhhs' m%Odk fmdfydr jk hQßhd j¾;udk .eKqï ñf,ka 1$3lg muK msßjehlg ksIamdokh l< yels kï" iykdOdrh iïmQ¾Kfhkau kj;d ±óug rchg yels jkq we;'

j¾I 2011 § hQßhd mßfNdackh 768 ktla nj cd;sl fmdfydr f,alï ld¾hd,h jd¾;d fldg

;sfí114' fuys" 4'8 fldgfiys idlÉPd l< mßÈ 2014 § ;lafiare lrk ,o hQßhd b,aü 827ktla fõ' kj lDIsld¾ñl lghq;= wdrïN lsÍu;a iu.u hQßhd iòyd mj;sk b,aü by< hEug bv we;s kuqÿ" kj lDIsld¾ñl lghq;= iòyd bvï fkdue;s ùu lrK fldg f.k b,a¨fuys j¾Okh nd,jkq we;' tksid" 2'5]l jd¾Isl YS>%;djhla wkqu; flfrk w;r" bka m%;sM,h úh

yels m%CIsma; w.hhka jk 2014 § 827 kt/y, 2024§ 1,059 kt/y iy 2040 § 1"572 kt$y" 14 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' Bg wkqrEmSj" iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s úh yels b,aü ms<sfj,ska" 52'1

Mcf/d, 66'7 Mcf/d iy 99'0 Mcf/d jkq we;'

NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a iajNdúl jdhqj mdol l¾udka;

NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a rg ;=< by< b,aüla mj;sk hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd ksIamdokd.drhla f.dvke.Sug fhdackd lr ;sfí' tjeks lDIsld¾ñl jHdmdrhla iòyd wjYH m%udKhg iajNdúl jdhqj 2025§ muK imhd .ekSug yels jkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' j¾I

2024 jk úg hQßhd iòyd mj;skq we;ehs wfmaCIs; b,aü 1'06 Mt jk neúka" 1 Mt/y Odß;djhla iys; hQßhd ksIamdokd.drhla 2025 § bÈl< hq;= hehs fhdackd flf¾' fuh" Èklg

iajNdúl jdhqj 63 Mcfla mßfNdackh lrkq we;' b,aü by< hk úg ksIamdokd.drfhys

74

Odß;djh 2030 jk úg 1'25 Mt olajd;a 2035 jk úg 1'5 Mt olajd;a by< kexùug yels jkq

we;' túg" wkqrEmS iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh ms<sfj,ska 71 Mcf/d iy 95 Mcf/d jkq we;'

fuys" 4'8 fldgfiys idlÉPd l< mßÈ" Y%S ,xldj 2011 § wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ÂMS& 66'65 ktla

wdkhkh lr ;sfí' j¾Ok fõ.h 2'5] l§" 2014 j¾Ifha§ tys mßfNdackh 71'1 ktla iy 2040 §

135'1 ktla jkq we;' iajNdúl jdhqj m<uqj wefudakshd njg mßj¾;kh fldg" wk;=rej AMS

ksIamdokh iòyd fhdod .kq ,efí' fuu l%shdj,sfha§ wefudakshd 1tla ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd

iajNdúl jdhqj 40 Mcfla wjYH jkq we;115'

wefudakshd ^32& iy AMS ^132&j, wKql Ndrh iy wefudakshd wKq 2la wefudakshï i,af*aÜ

^^NH4&2SO4& iE§u iòyd wjYH ùu ie,l+úg" AMS" 1tla ksIamdokh lsÍug iajNdúl jdhqj

10kcfla wjYH jkq we;' tfyhska" AMSj, by; m%udK ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd 2014 j¾Ifha§

1'95 Mcf/d isg 2040 § 3'70 Mcf/d olajd mrdihl m%CIsma; iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackhla ;sfnkq

we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" 2030 §" 125 kt/y olajd;a 2035 jk úg 150kt/y olajd;a

Odß;djh by< kexùug kshñ;" 100 kt/y Odß;djh iys; AMS ksIamdokd.drhla 2025 § bÈlsÍu isÿ lrkq we;' fuys§" m<uqj iòyka lrk ,o j¾I iòyd wkqrEmS ia-jdhq mßfNdackh

2.7 (2025), 3.4 (2030) iy 4.7 (2035)Mcf/d la jkq we;'

fuys" 2'5 fldgfiys" ãi,a f;,a iy LPG iòyd wdfoaYlhla f,i Ndú; l< yels" vhsó;hs,a

B;¾ ^DME& kï øjhla njg ia-jdhqj mßj¾;kh l< yels nj i|yka lrk ,oS' tla Èkla ;=<

ia-jdhqj 11 Mcf/d Ndú; lrñka DME" 200 tla ksIamdokh l< yels l%ufõohla Ndú;d lsÍu

u.ska DME ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd l%shdj,shla ilia lr ;sfí'116 tksid" Y%S ,xldj" jirlg 100

kt ne.ska j¾I 2025 § DME ksIamdokh wdrïN l< hq;= nj;a miqj th 2030 § jirlg 125 k

olajd;a 2035 § jirlg 150 kt olajd;a by< kexúh hq;= nj;a fhdackd flf¾' thg wkqrEmS ia-

jdhq mßfNdack YS>%;d ms<sfj,ska" 15'1" 18'8 iy 22'6 Mcf/d jkq we;' tu ksIamdok YS>%;d iy wkqrEmS ia-jdhq mßfNdackh YS>%;d 25 jk j.=fjys o jdhq b,a¨ï YS>%;d 47 jk rEmfhyso olajd we;'

25 jk j.=j( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol l¾udka;j, jdhq iòyd b,aü

j¾Ih NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a NG b,aü Mcf/d

hQßhd AMS DME uq`M tl;=j

2025 63.0 2.7 15.1 80.8

2026 63.0 2.7 15.1 80.8

2027 63.0 2.7 15.1 80.8

2028 63.0 2.7 15.1 80.8

2029 63.0 2.7 15.1 80.8

2030 78.8 3.4 18.8 101.0

2031 78.8 3.4 18.8 101.0

2032 78.8 3.4 18.8 101.0

2033 78.8 3.4 18.8 101.0

2034 78.8 3.4 18.8 101.0

2035 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

2036 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

75

2037 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

2038 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

2039 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

2040 94.5 4.1 22.6 121.2

47 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol l¾udka;j, m%CIsma; jdhq b,a u

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a iajNdúl jdhqj mdol l¾udka;

Y%S ,xldj 2011 j¾Ifha§ o< jYfhka fu;fkda,a 10 ktla wdkhkh lr ;sfí' j¾I 2014 § 11'6

kt/yl w.hhl isg 2040 § 41 kt/yla olajd" 5] l jd¾Isl j¾Ok fõ.hla Wml,amkh lrñka"

fu;fkda,a iòyd m%CIsma; w.hhka 14 jk j.=fjys olajd we;'117 fu;fkda,a 1 t/y iòyd ia-jdhq

100 scf/d wjYH flfrk nj wkqudk lrñka" fuu ksIamdokh iòyd wkqrEmS ia-jdhq

wjYH;djh" 1'2 Mcf/d isg 4'1 Mcf/d olajd mrdihl mj;S'117 fu;fkda,a hkq" 4'8 fldgfiys úia;r lr we;s mßÈ mqM,a mrdihl jQ ridhksl ksIamdokh ksmoùu iòyd fhdod .kakd wdrïNl øjH jk fyhska" fuhg f,dj mqrd úYd, b,aüla mj;sk w;r jd¾Isl f.da,Sh

ksIamdokh 100 Mt muK fj;ehs ;lafiare lr we;'118 fuhg oYlhlg muK fmr á%ksvEâ iy

fgdaf.da ^TT&rdcHfha iajNdúl jdhqj fidhd .;a úg" Tjqkaf.a m<uq m%uqL;djh jQfha" weußldkq uydoaùmfha fu;fkda,a iòyd ;ks iemhqïlreùu iy f.da,Sh jYfhka isõjk ia:dkhg

meñKSug fu;fkda,a ksIamdokh yd wmkhkh wdrïN lsÍuhs' Odß;djh 1 Mt/y jQ iy USD

ñ,shk 850l msßjehla iys;j Èklg iajNdúl jdhqj 100Mcfla mßfNdackh flfrk

fu;fkda,a ksIamdokd.drhl lghq;= TT uE;l§ wdrïN l<dh119' fuu m%udKfhka fu;fkda,a

140 ktla jd¾Islj 100 kt ,efnk fia DME njg mßj¾;kh lrkq ,nhs' tksid" foaYSh ridhk l¾udka;j,g iyfhda.h ,nd §u iy w;sßla;hla we;akï th wmkhkh

lsÍu hk folreK imqrd,Su iòyd" 2025§ 1 Mt/y Odß;djhla iys; fu;fkda,a

ksIamdokd.drhla f.dvk.d fu;fkda,a úYd, mßudKfhka ksIamdokh lsÍuNG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a Y%S ,xldj o wdrïN l< hq;= njg fhdackd flf¾' túg" fndfyda fofkl=g /lshd wjia:d imhñka" j¾;udkfha § wdkhkh lrkq ,nk ishü ridhksl øjH iy ma,diaála ksIamdok foaYShj ksmoùug yels jkq we;' rgg wjYH fu;fkda,a njg mßj¾;kh lsÍfuka wk;=rej b;srsjkw;sßla; jdhqj" jdhqj f,igu wmkhkh lsÍug jvd fu;fkda,a f,i wmkhk lsrSu fndfyda myiqjkq we;' b,aü by< hk úg" 26 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s

76

wdldrhg" 2030§ 1'5 Mt/y olajd;a 2035 § 2'0 Mt/y olajd;a ksIamdokho mq`M,a l< yels jkq we;'

fuys§" ms<sfj,ska" 100" 150 iy 200 Mcf/dl wkqrEmSj ia-jdhq mßfNdackhla isÿ jkq we;'

26 jk j.=j ( NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol ld¾udka;j, jdhq iòyd b,aü

j¾Ih NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a we;s b,aü Mcf/d

NG1 fu;fkda,a t;fkda,a uq`M tl;=j

2025 80.8 100 13.1 193.9

2026 80.8 100 13.1 193.9

2027 80.8 100 13.1 193.9

2028 80.8 100 13.1 193.9

2029 80.8 100 13.1 193.9

2030 101.0 150 19.7 270.7

2031 101.0 150 19.7 270.7

2032 101.0 150 19.7 270.7

2033 101.0 150 19.7 270.7

2034 101.0 150 19.7 270.7

2035 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

2036 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

2037 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

2038 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

2039 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

2040 121.2 200 26.2 347.4

fuu jd¾;dfõ" 4'8 fldgfiys iòyka lr we;s wfkla ksIamdokh jk t;fkda,a" fmd,a" ;,a iy Wla wdijkh lsÍfuka ±kgu;a wm rg ;=< ksIamdokh flfrk w;r" uOHidr l¾udka;fha

fhoùu msKsi tajd wdkhkh lsÍuo isÿfõ' t;fkda,a mßfNdackh 2014 § 10 kt isg 2040 § 36 kt olajd by< hk nj;a tys idudkH b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a wfmaCId flf¾ ^14 jk j.=j&' uE; ld,fha§ .efid,Ska iu. ñY% lsÍu lrK fldg f.k t;fkda,a iòyd we;s b,aü by< f.dia

;sfnk w;r ta iòyd wdl¾IKSh wmkhk fj<òfmd<la ieliS ;sfí' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a" foaYSh fukau wmkhk b,aü imqrd,Su msKsi 100 kt/yl Odß;djhla iys; t;fkda,a ksIamdokd.drhla bÈlsÍu j¾I 2025 § wdrïN lsÍug fhdackd fldg ;sfí' Èklg iajNdúl

jdhqj 1 Mcfla mßfNdackh lsÍu u.ska t;fkda,a jd¾Islj 21 tla ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd" fojkqj t;fkda,a njg mßj¾;kh flfrk iska.Eia njg iajNdúl jdhqj mßj¾;kh lsÍu

m%:ufhka isÿ lrkq ,efí120' túg iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s jk b,aü 13 Mcf/dla jkq we;'

j¾I 2030 § 150 kt/y olajd;a 2035 § 200 kt/y olajd;a t;fkda,a iòyd we;s b,aü by< hk

nj;a" ta wkqj iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,aü 2030 § 20 Mcf/dla iy 2035 § 26 Mcf/dla jkq we;s njg wkqudk flf¾' fïjdfha jd¾Isl w.hhka 26 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' fu;fkda,a iy

t;fkda,a ksIamdokh lsÍug wjYH flfrk fukau NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jQ ksIamdok

;=kla iòyd wjYH flfrk iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh o 26 j.=fjys NG1 hgf;a olajd we;.

fuu jdhq m%udKhkaNG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a o wka;¾.; flfrkq we;' fïjd 48 jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

77

48 jk rEmh ( NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a jdhq-mdol l¾udka;j, m%CIsma; jdhq b,a u

8'5 m%jdyk wxYh ÈhqKq rgj, fukau bkaÈhdjo we;=<;a ÈhqKq fjñka mj;sk rgj, r:jdyk ia-jdhqj Ndú;d fldg Odjkh lsÍu oekgu;a isÿ lrhs' Y%S ,xldjg o r: jdyk Odjkh lsÍu iòyd ia-jdhqj

y`ÿkajd§u isÿ l< yelsh' fuys§" úl,am ;=kla ;sfí; m<uqj CNG Ndú;d lsÍu" fojkqj LNG

Ndú;d lsÍu" iy f;jkqj DME Ndú;d lsÍu" tu úl,am ;=k fõ' idudkHfhka ;%sfrdao r: we;=¨ ieye,a¨ jdyk iòyd m<uqjekak Ndú;d flfrk w;r" fojekak" niar: we;=¨ nr

jdyk iòyd Ndú;d flf¾' f;jk úl,amh jk DME ãi,a fjkqjg wdfoaYlhla f,i Ndú; l< yelsh' ia-jdhqj Ndú;h ãi,a fyda .efid,Ska fyda Ndú; lsÍug jvd th ,dnodhs jkjd muKla fkdj bka mßirh ¥IKhùuo isÿ fkdùu fuys,d jeo.;afõ' jdhqj iy wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï ;sfí kï" kj moaO;sh ms<s.kq ,eîu fj<òfmd<

n,fõ. u.ska ;SrKh flfrkq we;' j¾;udkfha" .efid,Ska ,Sgrhla LKR 170la ùu 1 MJlg

LKR 4'90la fyda Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 40la f,ig iudk jk w;r" ãi,a ,Sgrhla LKR 121la

ùu 1 MJ lg LKR 3'25la fyda Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 26la f,ig iudk jkafkah' wfkla w;g"

Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 15l ñ,g iajNdúl jdhqj iemhqjo 1 MJ la iòyd msßjeh LKR 1'85la muKla jkq we;' tksid" nÿ" ,dN iSud" m%jdykh iy há;, myiqlï iòyd msßjeh wka;¾.; lsÍfuka wk;=rej mjd" b;d ;r`.ldÍ ñ,lg ia-jdhqj r:jdyk iòyd úlsKsh yels jkq we;'

miqj" ia-jdhqfjys ñ, US 5/million Btu olajd my; fy,k ,o úg" tys jdish mdßfNda.slhska fj; ,nd §ug yelsfjkq we;' Y%S ,xldj" 2012 j¾Ih ;=< § wdikakj nia r: 3000la" ld¾ 30"000la iy ;%sfrdao r: 100"000la

wdkhkh lr ;sfí' jirlg Èk 240la iòyd nia r:hla idudkHfhka Èklg 340kmla Odjkh

flfrkq we;ehs o" ld¾ r:hla iy ;%sfrdao r:hla idudkHfhka Èklg 50 kmla muK Odjkh flfrkq we;ehso Wml,amkh lrñka" ta iòyd jd¾Isl bkaOk mßfNdackh" 2012 § uq`M

mßfNdackh jk 101 PJj,ska 4'4]la muK jk 4'5 PJ la úh hq;= njg ;lafiare fldg ;sfí121' b;sß m%udKh mj;sk fiiq jdyk moaO;sh u.ska mßfNdackh flf¾' wju jYfhka" iemhqï

uOHia:dk lsysmhlaj;a k.rh ;=< ia:dms; flfrk há;, myiqlï imhk ,o úg kj CNG jdyk" wdkhkh lsÍu Èßu;a l< yels jk w;r" wdkhkh lrkq ,nkakd jQ r: jdykj,ska

78

50]la wju jYfhka CNG jdyk jkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' CNG fufyhùu iòyd l¾udka;Yd,dfõ§u iú flreKq Wmdx. iys; r:jdyk" bkaÈhdj iy cmdkh hk rgj,a foflau ;sfnk w;r" tajd ñ,g .ekSu Èßu;a lsÍu msKsi nÿ iyk ,nd §ug lghq;= l< hq;=h' jdhq u.ska È.= ÿr Odjkh flfrk niar: iy g%lar: iòyd wo mj;sk cd;Hka;r m%jK;djh

jkafka" CNGj,ska Odjkh flfrkjdg jvd LNG Ndú;d lsÍu fndfyda ,dnodhS njhs' idudkHfhka nia r:j, .=re;aj flaJøh Wia ia:dkhlg f.k hñka" jx.= iys; ud¾.j, .uka

lsÍfï§ wfkla jdykj,g jvd wvq ia:dhS;djhla" CNG jdyk iòyd we;s lrñka" CNG gexls

nia r:j, jy, u; ia:dk.; lr we;' tfukau yÈis wk;=re wjia:dj,§" CNG r:jdyk

LNG jdykj,g jvd jeä ;¾ckhla we;s lrhs' flfiafj;;a" úYd,;u miq neiau jkafka kej; msrùu iòyd .; jk È.= ld,hhs' idudkH ãi,a jdykj,g bkaOk ,nd .ekSu iòyd

.; jk ld,hg iudk ld,hla LNG jdyk iòyd o jeh jk w;r" CNG jdyk iòyd thg meh lsysmhla wjYH flfrkq we;' wêfõ.S ud¾.j, j¾Okh;a iu. iqfLdamfNda.S nia r: iòyd we;s ù ;sfnk b,aü wêl ùu ksid wêfõ.S ud¾.j, iy ÿr.uka ud¾. iòyd fhdod .kq

,nk tjeks nia r:j, LNG Ndú; lsÍu jvd iqÿiq jkq we;' iqmqreÿ b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a" ãi,a iòyd 4'85]l iy .efid,Ska iòyd 8'22]l fM;sydisl j¾Ok fõ.h mokï fldg .;a m%jdyk wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdack w.hhka 31 jk

rEmfhys olajd we;' m%jdyk wxYh ;=< Ndú;d lsÍu msKsi 2023 j¾Ifhka wk;=rej CNG ,nd .; yels fj;ehs Wml,amkh flf¾' idudkHfhka" uyckhd kj y`ÿkajd§ulg wkqyqre ùu

iòyd ue,slula olajk fyhska uq,a wjia:dfõ§ kj CNG/LNG jdyk wdkhkh o wka;¾.;j

mßj¾;kh wvq fõ.hlska isÿ jkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' HH&C iy l¾udka; wxYj,§

fukau" iajNdúl jdhqj m%jdyk wxYh fj;g y`ÿkajd §u o NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d fol

hgf;a i,ld nef,kq we;' NG1 wjia:dj hgf;a 2023 § f;,a mrsfNdackfhka 2]la ia-jdhq odhl;ajh iys;j iEu jirlu 2]l jeäùula iu. 2040 os 36] olajd by< hEuisÿ jkq we;'Bg

wkqrEmsj fmfg%da,shï f;,a mßfNdackfhys neiaula olakg ,efnkq we;' CNG iy LNG oaú;ajfhys mßfNdackh fjk fjku ãi,a iy .efid,Ska wjfYaI mßfNdackh o iu. 49 jk rEmfhys olajd ;sfí'

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" 2023 § ia-jdhq mßfNdackh 4]l mx.=jla iys;j j¾Okh ùu isÿ jkq we;s w;r 72]l mx.=jla iys;j 2040 olajd iEu jirlgu 4]l j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrñka by< hkq we;' f;,a mßfNdackfhys wkqrEmS wvqùula ;sfnkq we;' b,a¨ï wjia:d fol iòyd 2023-2040 olajd ld,mrdihg wod< fuu m%CIsma; w.hhka 27 jk j.=fjys olajd we;'

27 jk j.=j ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhysjdhq iòyd b,aü

j¾Ih

NG1 NG2

f;,a iajNdúl jdhqj f;,a iajNdúl jdhqj

PJ/y PJ/Y Mcf/d PJ/y PJ/y Mcf/d

2023 190.8 3.9 10.1 186.9 7.8 20.2

2024 198.6 8.3 21.5 190.3 16.6 43.0

2025 206.7 13.2 34.3 193.5 26.4 68.6

2026 215.1 18.7 48.6 196.4 37.4 97.3

2027 223.8 24.9 64.6 198.9 49.7 129.3

2028 232.7 31.7 82.5 201.0 63.5 165.0

2029 242.0 39.4 102.4 202.6 78.8 204.8

79

2030 251.5 47.9 124.6 203.6 95.8 249.1

2031 261.4 57.4 149.2 204.0 114.7 298.3

2032 271.5 67.9 176.5 203.6 135.8 353.0

2033 281.9 79.5 206.8 202.4 159.0 413.5

2034 292.6 92.4 240.3 200.2 184.8 480.5

2035 303.6 106.7 277.4 196.9 213.3 554.7

2036 314.8 122.4 318.3 192.4 244.9 636.7

2037 326.3 139.9 363.6 186.5 279.7 727.2

2038 338.0 159.1 413.6 179.0 318.1 827.2

2039 349.9 180.3 468.7 169.7 360.5 937.4

2040 362.0 203.6 529.5 158.4 407.3 1058.9

fuu b,aü imqrd,Sug iajNdúl jdhqj wjYH lrk m%udKh o fuu j.=fjys fmkakqï fldg

we;' fuu m%CIsma;hka ;lafiare lrkq ,en we;af;a IC txðka iú lrk ,o iïm%odhl r:

jdyk Ndú;h mokï fldg f.kh' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj iòyd fuu bkaOk mßfNdack rgdj

50 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;' NG1 wjia:dfõ§ fuka fkdj" NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a § jdhqj m%uqL bkaOkh njg m;a jkq we;' Bg wkqrEmSj" jdhq u.ska l%shdlrùfï wjia:djg udreùu;a iu. bkaOk iòyd jehjk msßjeh my; niskq we;'

bkaOk-ffi, (Fuel Cell) u.ska l%shdflfrk r:jdyk ixj¾Okh lsÍu isÿ flfrñka mj;sk nj iòyka l< hq;= w;r i,lkq ,nk ld, mrdih ;=< kqÿre wkd.;fha§u fuu jdyk uyd ud¾.j, olakg ,efnkq we;' tu ld,h jk úg ia-jdhqj ,eî ;sfí kï" r:h ;=<§u ieliSfï

myiqlu Ndú; fldg wjYH flfrk yhsv%cka ^H2& ia-jdhqfjka ,nd .; yels jk ksid tu r:jdyk Y%S ,xldfõ uyd ud¾.j, Odjkh lsÍug yelshdjla ,efnkq we;' tjeks ;;ajhla hgf;a" jdhq iòyd we;s b,aü ;jÿrg;a by< hkq we;' 8'6 n,Yla;s wxYh

mq;a;,u CPP ys f;jeks wÈhr 2014 iema;eïn¾ udifha§ l%shd;aul lrk ,§' fuu.ska"

n,d.drfha Odß;djh 900 MW olajd by< kexúh' iemhqu iu. .e,mSug b,aü CIKslj jeä fkdjk neúka wm rg ;=< n,Yla;s iemhqï w;sßla;hla ;sîug fndfyda úg bv ;sfí' j¾I 2018

§ iajNdúl jdhqj ,enqKq úg" CCGT n,d.dr ;=k ia-jdhqfjka l%shd lrk ;;ajhg m;a lsÍug

n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ' tksid" kj CPP n,d.drj,g fyda ia-jdhqoyk CCGT n,d.drj,g iïnkaO

lsÍfï úl,amh cd, mßmd,lg ;sfí' CEB wju-msßjeh mdol fldgf.k fufyhqï isÿ lrk neúka" .,a w`.=re n,Yla;sh iy ia-jdhq n,Yla;sh W;amdokh lsÍfï msßjeh ksjerÈj ;yjqre lr .ekSug wjYHfõ' .,a w`.=re" ãi,a iy ia-jdhq u.ska úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd jk

iulrk ,o msßjeh ^Levelized Cost&" tksid" ksYaph lrkq ,efí' n,d.drh u; wdfhdackh lrk ,o m%d.aOkfhys úYsIag jd¾Isl msßjeh" bkaOk iòyd msßjeh" ia:djr iy úp,H fufyhqï iy kv;a;= msßjeh fuys§ ie,ls,a,g .kq ,efí'

80

49 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

50 jk rEmh ( NG2b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a m%jdyk wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh W;amdokfhys iulrk ,o msßjeh jHdmD;shl iulrk ,o msßjeh ksYaph lsÍfuys,d m<uq mshjr jkafka" iïu; iólrKh Ndú; fldg uQ,sl m%d.aOk msßjeh jd¾Isl msßjehla njg mßj¾;kh lr .ekSuhs' 122

m%d.aOkfhys jd¾Isl msßjeh = tlajr msßjeh *DR* (I + DR)ÊL/((I+DR)ÊL-I)

fuys" DR = jÜgï wkqmd;slh îdudkHfhka 10]la f,i i,lkq ,efí&

EL = n,d.drfhys wd¾Ól wdhq ld,h ^n,Yla;s jHdmD;shla iòyd jir 30la&

tlajr msßjeh (overnight cost) = m%d.aOk msßjeh + bÈ lsÍï ld,h ;=< fmd<sh m%d.aOk msßjeh" .,a w`.=re iy f;,aj, ñ," ia:djr iy úp,H fufyhqï yd kv;a;= msßjeh"

iïnkaO o;a; fuu .Kkh iòyd CEB ys 2013 LTGE ie,eiafuka ,nd .kakd ,§'

wkd.;fha§ 5]l jd¾Isl jeäùula Wml,amkh lrñka" CEB 2013 SD jd¾;dfõ olajd we;s .,a w`.=re iòyd jQ msßjeh 2018 ñ,g by< kxjk ,§' ãi,a ñ, 2013 ñf,ka werö jd¾Islj 2'5]lska

by< kxjk ,§' foaYShj fidhd .kakd ,o ia-jdhqj j¾I 2018 muK jk úg US $ 15/million

Btu l ñ,lg ,nd .; yels jkq we;s w;r miqj th 2021 § US $ 10/million Btu olajd;a 2023 §

US $ 5/million Btu olajd;a my< niskq we;ehs wfmalaId lrk ,oS'

81

fndfydaúg .,a w`.=re iy ãi,a CCGT n,d.drj, ld¾hCIu;djhka CEB ys LTGE jd¾;dfjka

,nd .kakd ,§' ia-jdhq u.ska l%shd flfrk CCGT n,d.dr iòyd 50]l o ãi,a iy bkaOk

f;,a j,ska l%shd flfrk CCGT n,d.dr iòyd 46]l o" jdhq g¾nhsk ^GT& n,d.dr iòyd 30]l o"iy .,a w`.=re n,d.dr iòyd 35]l o ld¾hCIu;djhka Wml,amkh lrk ,oS' wo jk

úg 60]l ld¾hCIu;djhlska hq;a ia-jdhq u.ska l%shd flfrk CCGT n,d.dr ksmojkq ,nk kuqÿ ksj¾;k rgj, l%shd;aul flfrk úg tu w.h 55] olajd wjlrKhlg ,la flfrk

w;r j¾;udk CCGT n,d.dr l%shd;aul flfrk ld¾hCIu;djhka i,ld n,d" 50]l

ld¾hCIu;djhla wkqudk fldg ;sfí' n,d.dr idOl" .,a w`.=re iòyd 75]la o" CCGT iòyd

90]la o" iy GT n,d.dr iòyd 60]la o úh hq;= nj wkqudk fldg ;sfí' by; iólrKh Ndú; lrñka" jdhq ñ,wjia:d 3 iòyd iulrk ,o msßjeh w.hhka ksYaph lrkq ,nk w;r by; úia;r l< .,a w`.=re iy ia-jdhqfjys ñ, iy fidhd.ekSï 28 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' fi!LH n,mEï fya;= fldg f.k we;s flfrk ndysr msßjeh 22 jk j.=fjka ,ndf.k we;'

iajNdúl jdhqfjys by; iòyka ñ, 3g wkqrEmS úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys úYsIag msßjeh US

cts/kWh 5.03, 8.44, iy 11.85la jk w;r tys w.hh .,a w`.=re n,d.dr iòyd US cts/kWh

9.16la iy ãi,a iòyd US cts/kWh 20.75la jkq we;' fuys wre; jkafka" Rcq msßjeh muKla

i,ld ne,SfïoS" ia-jdhq msßjeh USD 15/million Btu yereKq úg" .,a w`.=rej, ñ, USD/t 174lg by< kxjk ,o úg" 2018 oS ia-jdhq n,Yla;sh .,a w`.=re n,Yla;shg jvd wvq ñ,lg iemhSug yels ùuh'

úisfojk ^22& j.=fjys iòyka ndysr msßjeh tl;= lrk ,o úg" Btu ñ,shkhlg UScts 15-5l

ia-jdhq ñ,g wkqrEmSj" ia-jdhq n,Yla;sfh ñ,1 kWhlg US cts 12-33-5'51 njg m;afõ' óg

iu.dñ .,aw`.=re n,Yla;sfh ñ,1 kWhlg US cts 20'86 fõ' tksid"ndysr msßjeh wka;¾.;

lrk ,o úg wjia:d 3 iòyd .,a w`.=re n,Yla;shg jvd NG n,Yla;sh" ,dnodhlh' ndysr

msßjeh tla lsÍu iu." ãi,aj,ska l%shd flfrk n,d.dr iòyd wkqrEmS w.hh 1kWh lg UScts

25.45la jkq we;' tksid" nysIaldr msßjeh ms<snò ie,lSulska f;drj jQj o n,Yla;s W;amdokh lsÍfï§ f;,a j,ska ia-jdhqj fj;g udreùu idOdrKSlrKh l< yelsh' iajNdúl jdhq n,d.dr y`ÿkajd§u

fmr iòyka lrk ,o oEg wkqj" .,a w`.=rej,ska l%shd;aul lrkjdg jvd ia-jdhqj,ska CCGT n,d.dr 3 l%shd;aul lrùu ,dnodhS nj meyeÈ,sh' tksid" moaO;sh ;=<g ia-jdhq n,d.dr mshjfrka mshjr we;=<;a lsrSfïoS" 2018 oS jdhq ,enqKq úg" meyeÈ,s f;aÍu jkafka m<uqj"

le,Ks;siafia msysá n,d.dr fol ^165 MW iy 163 MW& iy flrj,msáfha ;sfnk f;jekak

^300 MW& we;=<;a CCGT n,d.dr ;=k ia-jdhqfjka l%shd flfrk n,d.dr njg mßj¾;kh lsÍuh' m%Yia; ;;aj hgf;a ^n,d.dr idOl 90]la iy 50]l ld¾hCIu;djh& fuu n,d.dr ;=k

^03& jd¾Islj 36 PJlg iudk bkaOk m%udKhla mßfNdackh lrkq ,nk w;r fuu Yla;sh

ffokslj 93 Mcf/d m%udKhl jdhqj u.ska iemhSug yelsfõ' flfiafj;;a" uQ,sl ksIamdokh 70

Mcf/dlg iSud lrkafka kï" Wmßu ksuejqulskafuu n,d.dr l%shd lrúh fkdyels ;;ajhlg m;a ùug bv ;sfí'

28 jk j.=j ( úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys iulrk ,o msßjeh .Kkh lsÍu

n,d.dr j¾.h

bkaOkh n,d.drfhys Odß;dfjh

n,d.drfhys m%d.aOk úhou

USD/kW

n,d.drfhys m%d.aOk

úhou USD ñ,shk

yÈis mssßjeh

USD/kW

n,d.drfhys wd¾Ól wdhq

jÜgï wkqmd;slh ]

jd¾Isl m%d.aOk msßjeh

USD

bkaOkj, msßjeh

USD/t

ñf,ys jd¾Isl jeäùu ]

bkaOkj, msßjeh

USD

ñ,shk

82

MW ld,h j¾I

ñ,shkh 2013

CCGT Diesel 300 824 247.08 935.12 30 10 29.76 1,047 2.5 1,185

ST Coal 300 1,658 497.34 1964.99 30 10 62.53 134 5 171

CCGT NG 300 824 247.08 935.12 30 10 29.76

CCGT NG 300 824 247.08 935.12 30 10 29.76

CCGT NG 300 824 247.08 935.12 30 10 29.76

28 jk j.=j wLKavj. . .

jdhqj, ñ,

USD/MBtu PF% jd¾Isl

úÿ,sn, ksuejqu

GWh/year

ld¾hCIu;djh ]

jd¾Isl bkaOk mßfNdackh

jd¾Isl n,d.dr msßjeh

UScts/k

Wh

úp,H fu'

&k' msßjeh

UScts/kWh

bkaOk msßjeh

UScts/

kWh

ksIamdokfhys uqM msßjeh

UScts/kWh

nysIaldr msßjeh

^fi!LH&US

cts/kWh

nysIaldr iu. uq`M

msßjeh US

cts/kWh

90 2,586.0 46.0 456,100 1.258 0.436 18.47 20.75 4.70 25.45

80 2,102.4 35.0 819,993 3.173 0.559 5.24 9.16 11.70 20.86

5.00 90 2,365.2 50.0 339,016 1.258 0.308 3.41 5.03 0.48 5.51

10.00 90 2,365.2 50.0 339,016 1.258 0.308 6.82 8.44 0.48 8.92

15.00 90 2,365.2 50.0 339,016 1.258 0.308 10.23 11.85 0.48 12.33

flfia fj;;a" 1000 MWla ;rïfkdjk 0100h isg 0500h olajd ojfia uq,a meh lsysmh ;=< ;sfnk wvq b,a,qu lrK fldg f.k .eg¨jla fuu.ska mek fkdk.S' fuu n,Yla;sh wLKavj ndOdjlska f;drj imhd .ekSug .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska mdol Ndrhg wjYH iemhqu ,nd

.ekSug woyia lrhs' tksid" b,aüg .e,mSu iòyd fuu ld,h ;=<CCGT n,d.drj,ska iemfhk Yla;sh wvq lsÍug isÿ jkq we;' j¾I 2018 jk úg wju b,aü" mj;sk ;;ajh wkqj

fjkia úh yels jQj o" fuh" 94 Mcf/day isg 75 Mcf/day muK olajd tajdfha b,aÆu wvq úh yel' j¾I 2018 jk úg ia-jdhqj ,enqKq miq" kj .,a w`.=re n,d.dr ia-jdhq n,Yla;sh u.ska wdfoaYkh lsÍfï úl,am i,ld ne,sh yelsh' ia-jdhqj m%udKj;a ;rñka foaYShj imhd .; yels kï" idïmQ¾j, fhdað; .,a w`.=re n,d.drh bÈ lrkjdo tfia fkdue;s kï" ia-jdhq n,Yla;s n,d.drh bÈ lrkjdo hkak ms<snò m%;sm;a;suh ;SrKhlg t<eöugisÿ ù ;sfí' idïmQ¾

n,d.drh f.dvke.Su jir .Kkdjla ;siafia m%udo ù ;sfnk w;r tys EIA jd¾;dj o ;ju;a

Ndr oS fkdue;' ;jÿrg;a" CEB jD;a;slhskao we;=Mj" n,d.drfhys fkdiqÿiqlu ms<snòj wys;lr jd¾;d fndfyduhla ms<sfh, lrkq ,en ;sfí123' bkaÈhdkq .,a w`.=rej, ;dm Yla;s w.h wvq nj o tajdfha by< w`M m%udKhla wvx.= jk nj o okakd lreKls' Y%S ,xldjg mßir ¥IKfha mSvdj b;sß fldg bkaÈhdj" W;amdokh flfrk úÿ,sn,fhys m%;s,dN muKla ,nd .kq we;s njla fmfkkakg ;sfí' i,ld ne,sh hq;= ;j;a lreKla kï" ;j;a úYd, .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.drhla j¾;udk

moaO;shg Wmfhda.S lr .; yels o hkakhs' CEBys LTGE ie,eiafuka ,nd .kakd ,o 2004-2011 ld,mßÉfþoh iòyd j¾;udk moaO;sfhys jd¾Isl idudkH ffoksl Ndr jl%h 51 jk rEmfhys

fmkakqï fldg we;s w;r thg wkqj 0100h isg 0500h olajd jk ojfia uq,a meh lsysmh ;=<

b,aü 1000 MWla muKh' w;S;fha tys j¾Okh u.ska ksYaph lsÍfïoS ;j;a jir 05lska th

1"500 MWla olajd ,`.d jkq we;' j¾;udkfha 900 MWl Odß;djhla iys; CPPj,ska iy wksjd¾hfhka l%shd;aul l< hq;= c,úÿ,s n,d.drj,ska fuu b,aü imqrd .ekSug yels jkq we;' Èkh ;=< m%Yia; ld¾hCIu;djh iòyd Wmßu Ndrhlska .,a w`.=re n,d.dr wLKavj l%shd;aul lsÍug kshñ;h' ;j;a .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.drhla tla lrk ,o fyd;a" fuu Wmudkh idCId;a lr .kakd w;ru tu n,d.drh l%shd;aul lsÍug fkdyels jkq we;'kuq;a ia-

83

jdhqfjka l%shd flfrk CCGTn,d.drhlg úp,kh jk Ndrhla hgf;a jQjo l%shd;aul l< yels neúka th jvd iqÿiq úl,amhla f,i ie,lsh yelsh'

51 jk rEmh ( 2004-2011 ld,h ;=< ffoksl mrsfNdack jl%j, jd¾Isl idudkH124

2013 LTGE ie,eiafuys mßYsIagh jk m%;sfYdaê; mdol wjia:dj 2012g wkqj n,Yla;s wxYfhys W;amdokh mq`M,a lsÍu ms<sn| fuu jd¾;dfõ 5'4 fldgfiys úia;r lr we;s w;r" th iqmqreÿ ;;aj hgf;a b,a,qï wjia:dj f,i i,lkq ,efí' j¾I 2018 oS ia-jdhq u.ska l%shd;aul

flfrk ;;ajhg CCGT n,d.dr ;=k ^03& mßj¾;kh lsÍfuka wk;=rej ia-jdhq Ndú; flfrk

Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s moaO;sh mq`M,a lsÍu iòyd NG1 iy NG2 kñka ye`Èkafjk b,a¨ï wjia:d folla fhdackd flf¾'

NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a LTGE ie,eiafuys 7'15 jk weuqKqu u; mokïjj¾I 2022ka

wdrïN ù 2023 jif¾os yer jd¾Islj 250 MWia-jdhq n,d.dr tallhla ne.ska ia-jdhq n,d.dr

12la o 2023 jif¾os 250 MWia-jdhq n,d.dr folla o jYfhka ia-jdhqj,ska l%shd;aul flfrk

uq`M Odß;djh 3000 MW njg m;a lsÍug wfmalaIs;h'fuhg wu;rj fu.dfjdÜ 250 ne.ska jk

.,a w`.=re n,d.dr ;=kla ^03& 2018 oS o" 250 MWl tla .,a w`.=re n,d.drhla 2019 oS o moaO;shg

tla lsÍu isÿ jkq we;' fuhg wu;rj" 75 MW GT n,d.drhka iy 105 MW GT n,d.drhla

2017 oS o moaO;shg tl;= flfrkq we;' fuu GT n,d.dr ;=k o 2023 isg iajNdúl jdhq u.ska l%shd;aul jk ;;ajhg mßj¾;kh flfrkq we;' ia:dms; ia-jdhq n,d.dr uq`M Odß;djh 5000

MW njg m;a lrjñka" 2032ka miq 250 MWla jQ ia-jdhq n,d.dr jirlg tl ne.ska tla

flfrñka fuu ie,eiau 2040 olajd oS¾> lr ;sfí' CEB ie,eiafuys wka;¾.; fldg we;s

mßÈ" iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a oS 163 MW CCGT n,d.drh 2023 oS úY%du .ekaùug

kshñ;h' flfiafj;;a" NG1 b,a,qï wjia:dj ;=<" ia-jdhqj u.ska CCGT n,d.dr l%shd;aul flfrk úg" jir 30l fufyhqï ld,h ksudjk 2033 olajd tys úY%duh l,a oeóu isÿ flfrkq we;' fuu ie,eiau 29 jk j.=fjys kej; olajd we;'

LTGE ie,eiau ;=<" 2018 oS 250 MW .,a w`.=re n,d.dr ;=kla tla lsÍu o 2019 oS 250 MW .,a

w`.=re n,d.dr ;=kla tla lsÍu o 2019 oS 250 MW .,a w`.=re n,d.dr tlla tla lsÍu o we;=<;a

uq`M w.h 1000 MWla jk CPP idïmQ¾ys ia:dms; lsÍug wfmaCId flf¾'

29 jk j.=j ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a fhdað; n,d.dr ia:dms; lsÍu125

fiajfhka

84

j¾Ih kj c, úÿ,s n,d.dr kj ;dmc n,d.dr bj;al, ;dmc n,d.dr

2015 1x300M .,a w`.=re 75+105 MW GT- ãi,a

2016 fn%daâ ,Ekaâ 35 MW Wud Th 120 MW

260 MWãi,a

2017 1x105 MW GT- ãi,a

2018 fudrf.d,a, 27 MW 3x250 MW;%sl=Kdu,h-.,a w`.=re

131 MWãi,a

2019 1x250 MW ;%sl=Kdu,h - .,a w`.=re

157 MWãi,a

2020 2021 2022 1x250 MW NG 2023 2x250 MW NG 151 MWãi,a 2024 .sx .`. 49 MW 1x250 MW NG

2025 1x250 MW NG 36 MWãi,a 2026 1x250 MW NG 2027 1x250 MW NG 2028 1x250 MW NG 2029 1x250 MW NG 2030 1x250 MW NG 2031 1x250 MW NG 2032 1x250 MW NG 2033 1x250 MW NG 163 MW CCGT 2034 1x250 MW NG 2035 1x250 MW NG 2036 1x250 MW NG 2037 1x250 MW NG 2038 1x250 MW NG 2039 1x250 MW NG 2040 1x250 MW NG

NG2 b,a,qï wjia:dj hgf;a" ms<sfj,ska 2018 oS iy 2019 oS iudk Odß;d iys; ia-jdhq n,d.dr u.ska idïmQ¾ys msysá .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.dr wdfoaYkh lsÍug fhdackd fldg ;sfí' fuu wfmaCIs; iqnjdoS ;;ajh YlH;djhla jkq we;af;a fulS ld, rduqj ;=< oS úYd, ia-jdhq ksêhla yuq jkafka kï muKs' ;jÿrg;a" fuu ia-jdhq n,d.drj, msysàu úh hq;af;a k< ud¾.j,g wdikak ia:dkhl jQ ngysr fjr<hs' fuu b,a ï wjia:d fol hgf;a jQ bkaOk mßfNdack w.hhka 52 iy 53 rEmj, fjku iy 30 jk j.=fjys o olajd ;sfí'

.,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska fndfyda wys;lr n,mEï isÿùu ksid idïmQ¾ CPP ia-jdhq n,d.drj,ska wdfoaYkh lsÍu iqÿiq jk w;r m%udKj;a ia-jdhq iïmdokh;a foaYShj imqrd .; fkdyels kï" ia-jdhq wjYH;djh wdkhkh lr fyda .,a w`.=re n,Yla;sfha isg jdhq n,Yla;sh olajd udreùu jgfkah'

30 jk j.=j ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhysjdhq iòyd b,aü

85

j¾Ih

uq`M bkaOk mßfNdackh

PJ/y

ia-jdhq b,aü

NG1 b,a¨ïwjia:dj

ia-jdhq b,aü

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

BAU NG1 NG2 PJ/Y Mcf/d PJ/Y Mcf/d

2014 79.3 79.3 79.3

2015 113.8 110.9 110.9

2016 113.8 110.9 110.9

2017 120.4 117.5 117.5

2018 154.2 148.2 125.8 35.6 92.7 47.0 122.2

2019 194.7 188.8 154.2 35.6 92.7 75.4 196.0

2020 194.7 188.8 154.2 35.6 92.7 75.4 196.0

2021 215.0 188.8 154.2 35.6 92.7 75.4 196.0

2022 235.3 203.0 168.4 49.8 129.6 89.6 232.9

2023 275.8 243.3 193.8 93.2 242.3 132.9 345.6

2024 275.8 242.5 207.9 107.4 279.2 147.1 382.5

2025 296.1 256.7 222.1 121.6 316.1 161.3 419.4

2026 296.1 270.9 236.3 156.4 406.7 175.5 456.3

2027 316.4 285.1 250.5 167.3 435.1 189.7 493.2

2028 336.6 299.3 264.7 164.2 426.8 203.9 530.1

2029 336.6 313.5 278.9 178.3 463.7 218.1 567.0

2030 356.9 327.7 293.1 192.5 500.6 232.3 603.9

2031 377.2 341.9 307.3 206.7 537.5 246.5 640.8

2032 397.4 356.1 321.5 220.9 574.4 260.7 677.7

2033 407.7 361.0 326.4 225.9 587.2 265.6 690.6

2034 427.9 375.2 340.6 240.1 624.1 279.8 727.4

2035 448.2 389.4 354.8 254.2 661.0 294.0 764.3

2036 468.5 403.6 369.0 268.4 697.9 308.2 801.2

2037 488.8 417.8 383.2 282.6 734.8 322.4 838.1

2038 509.0 432.0 397.4 296.8 771.7 336.6 875.0

2039 529.3 446.2 411.6 311.0 808.6 350.7 911.9

2040 549.6 460.4 425.8 325.2 845.5 364.9 948.8

b,a¨ï wjia:d folgu 900 MWjQ mq;a;,u n,d.drfha .,a w`.=re odhl;ajhla ,efnkq we;s

w;r" NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj iòyd muKla idïmQ¾ n,d.drfhka .,a w`.=re odhl;ajhla ,efnkq

we;' b,a¨ï wjia:d folgu 2017 olajd CCGT n,d.dr ;=fkka iy 2022 olajd GT n,d.dr ;=fkka f;,a odhl;ajhla ,efnkq we;' iajNdúl jdhq ix>glh iòyd fmkakqï fldg we;s mßfNdackh flfrk tlu Yla;s m%udKh W;amdokh lsÍug ffokslj wjYH flfrk ia-jdhq

mßudj 30 jk j.=fjys o fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k - BAU,NG1 iy NG2 -

hgf;a m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh 54 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;' CCGT n,d.drj,

by< ld¾hCIu;d,nd .ekSfï woyiska" NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a bkaOk mßfNdackfhys ie,lsh hq;= ;rfï wvqùula ;sfnKq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ'

86

52 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

53 jk rEmh ( NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

wdkhkh lrk ,o .,a w`.=re iòyd m%CIsma; msßjeh" 2012 oS f.jk ,o ñ, jk USD 134/t isg 5]l jd¾Isl wkqmd;hlska jeä fõ hehs Wml,amkh fldg ;lafiare lrk ,o w;r" tlS msßjeh

f;,a iòyd 2013 oS f.jk ,o ñ, jk USD 1047/t isg jirlg 2'5]l wkqmd;slhlska ñ,

jeäfõ hehs Wml,amkh fldg ;lafiare flf¾' b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k" BAU, NG1 iy NG2 hgf;a mßfNdackh lrk ,o bkaOkj, msßjeh 55 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;'

54 jk rEmh ( b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk mßfNdackh

87

55 jk rEmh ( b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfhys m%CIsma; bkaOk msßjeh

iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:d ;;aj hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYh mßfNdackh lrkakd jQ bkaOkj, msßjeh

2040 jk úg USD ñ,shk 11"500lg wêl úh yels w;r" ia-jdhqj mßfNdackh lrkafka kï

th USD ñ,shk 4000lg jvd wvq uÜgul mj;skq we;' ;jÿrg;a" tys ndysr msßjehla fkdue;s ;rï jk w;r .,a w`.=re n,d.dr u.ska ckkh flfrk ¥IKhg ksrdjrKh jk uyckhdf.a fi!LHh iqrCId lsÍug jehjk úhou j<ld.ekSug iy tjeks ksrdjrKh ùï u.ska we;s flfrk úúO wdndOj,ska ck;dj fm<Su j<lajd,Su u.ska rchg úYd, uqo,a m%udKhla b;sß

lr .ekSug o yels jkq we;' NG1 iy NG2 hk b,a¨ï wjia:d fol hgf;a Ndú; flfrk m%Odk bkaOkh" ia-jdhqj jkq we;' fuu b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a" 2040 olajd jd¾Isl ia-jdhq

b,aü 56 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 2040 oS mßfNdackh

807 Mcf/d jkq we;s w;r NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a th 910 Mcf/d jkq we;'

56 jk rEmh ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a n,Yla;s wxYfha m%CIsma; jdhq b,a u

.,a w`.=re iy ia-jdhq b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a msßjeh .Kkh lsÍu úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys iulrk ,o msßjeh ms<snòj miq.sh fldgil idlÉPd lrk ,oS' fuu wkqmd;slhka" WoaOukh iòyd ieliQ msßjeh iu." 2013 isg 2040 olajd iEu jirlu W;amdokhg fï jk úg fhdod .ksñka mj;S' .,a w`.=re iòyd 5]l jd¾Isl ñ, by< hEula

Wml,amkh lrñka CEB 2013SD jd¾;dfõ iòyka lrk ,o 2012 j¾Ifha ñf,ka wdrïN fldg

2040 j¾Ih olajd ;lafiare lsÍu isÿ fldg we;' iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd PRDS u.ska fhdackd

88

lr we;s mßÈ" 2018 isg 2022 olajd USD 15/million Btu" 2018 isg 2024 olajd USD 10/million

Btu" iy 2025 isg iy bka wk;=rej USD 5/ million Btu f,i ñ, wjia:d ;=kla Wml,amkh fldg ;sfí' .,a w`.=re" ãi,a iy jdhqj,ska úÿ,sn,h W;amdokh iòyd iulrk ,o msßjeh" 57 jk rEmfhys olajd we;'

57 jk rEmh ( úúO bkaOkj,ska úÿ,sn, W;amdokfhys iulrK ,o msßjeh

iajNdúl jdhqj iu. bkaOk msßjefhys b;sßh" NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 2040 jk úg

jirlg USD ñ,shk 7l muK m%udKhla úh yels jk w;r NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a th

jirlg USD ì,shk 8la muKfõ' mkia y;ajk ^57& rEmfhys fmkajd oS we;s mßÈ .,a w`.=re úÿ,sn,fhys úYsIag iulrk ,o msßjeh 2021ka miq werfUk ia-jdhqj iu. tlS msßjehg jvd jeä w.hhla .kS' fuu msßjeh wdmiq-.ukhg tla fya;=jla jkafka" .,a w`.=re msßjeh 2012 oS

USD 134/t isg 2025 oS USD 241/t olajd by< hk w;r ^5] l jd¾Isl jeäùu&' ia-jdhqfjys

msßjeh 2018 oS USD 15/millionBtu isg 2025 oS USD 5/million Btu olajd my< neiSuhs' 8'7 ishü wxYj, iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd m%CIsma; b,aü

HH&C" ld¾ñl" m%jdyk" iy n,Yla;s wxY iòyd ms<sfj,ska 23" 24" 26 iy 27 jk j.=j, olajd

we;s mßÈ NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 2018ka Tíng tlS wxY y;r ;=< ia-jdhqfjys wfmaCIs;

mßfNdackh 31 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s w;r NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d iòyd ms<sfj,ska 58 jk iy 59 jk rEmj, m%ia;druh iajrEmfhka olajd we;'

89

58 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ishü wxY iòyd jdhq m%CIsma; b,aü

59 jk rEmh ( NG2 b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a ishü wxY iòydjdhq m%CIsma; b,aü

31 jk j.=j ( NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a ishü wxYiòydm%CIsma; jdhqb,a u

j¾Ih NG1 hgf;a ia-jdhq b,aü Mcf/d NG2 hgf;a ia-jdhq b,aü Mcf/d

Power Trans Indus HH&C tl;=j Power Trans Indus HH&C tl;=j

2018 92.7 93 122.2 122

2019 92.7 93 196.0 196

2020 92.7 93 196.0 196

2021 92.7 93 196.0 196

2022 129.6 130 232.9 233

2023 242.3 10.1 252 345.6 20.2 1.9 368

2024 279.2 21.5 0.9 302 382.5 43.0 3.8 429

2025 316.1 34.3 1.9 352 419.4 68.6 199.8 688

2026 406.7 48.6 83.8 2.3 541 456.3 97.3 201.9 3.5 759

2027 435.1 64.6 84.8 4.9 589 493.2 129.3 204.2 7.4 834

2028 426.8 82.5 85.9 7.9 603 530.1 165.0 206.5 11.9 914

2029 463.7 102.4 87.1 11.3 665 567.0 204.8 208.9 17.0 998

2030 500.6 124.6 88.3 15.1 729 603.9 249.1 288.2 22.7 1164

2031 537.5 149.2 109.8 19.4 816 640.8 298.3 290.9 29.1 1259

2032 574.4 176.5 111.1 24.2 886 677.7 353.0 293.7 36.3 1361

2033 587.2 206.7 112.6 29.6 936 690.6 413.5 296.7 44.4 1445

2034 624.1 240.3 114.0 35.7 1014 727.4 480.5 299.8 53.5 1561

2035 661.0 277.3 115.6 42.4 1096 764.3 554.7 378.7 63.6 1761

2036 697.9 318.3 137.5 49.9 1204 801.2 636.7 379.6 74.9 1892

2037 734.8 363.6 139.2 58.3 1296 838.1 727.2 380.5 87.4 2033

2038 771.7 413.6 141.1 67.5 1394 875.0 827.2 381.5 101.3 2185

2039 808.6 468.7 143.1 77.8 1498 911.9 937.4 382.6 116.7 2349

90

2040 845.5 529.5 145.1 89.2 1609 948.8 1058.9 383.7 133.8 2525

n,Yla;s iy m%jdyk wxY ia-jdhq i|yd m%Odk mdßfNda.slhka jkq we;s nj wjOdkhg ,la jQ lreKls' j¾;udk .fõIKhkaf.a ia-jdhq ksIamdok ld¾higyk iu. wdikak .e,mSula isÿ lsÍu lrK fldg f.k n,Yla;s wxYh yereKq úg wfkla wxY ;=< ia-jdhq mßfNdackh lsÍu

wdrïN lsÍug ksYaÑ;j ;SrKh fldg ke;' HH&C iy ld¾ñl wxY ;=< mßfNdackh n,Yla;s iy m%jdyk wxYj,g jvd fnfyúka wvq nj wjOdkhg ,la ù ;sfí'

NG1 iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a úúO wxY ;=< n,Yla;s W;amdokh msKsi y`ÿkajd ÿka ia-jdhq m%udKh" hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk ia-jdhq m%udKh o we;=,;aj 31 jk

j.=fjys olajd we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" b,aü 2018 oS 93 Mcf/d, 2030 oS 725 Mcf/d isg

2040 jk úg 1"598 Mcf/d olajd j¾Okh jkq we;shs wfmaCId flf¾' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a wkqrEmS b,a¨ï w.hhka" ms<sfj,ska 122" 1164 iy 2"525 Mcf/d jkafkah'

NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" l¾udka;j, bkaOk f;,a iy LPG fjkqjg bkaOkhla f,i" iy

hQßhd" AMS" yd DME ksIamdokh lsÍfï fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i hk fowdldrhgu ia-

jdhqNdú;hg .ekSu we;=,;a fldg we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" fu;fkda,a iy t;fkda,a ksIamdokh iòyd fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i fhdod .ekSu jeks wu;r wjYH;d fukau bkaOkhla f,i Ndú;d lsÍu msKsi ia-jdhq fhdod .ekSu hkak iudch ;=<g ldjeoaoSu by< kexùu we;=,;a fldg we;' mq`M,a ridhksl ksIamdok ksmoùfï uQ,sl wuqøjH imhkq ,nk fuu ksIamdok iq,n ùu foaYSh ridhk l¾udka;h ÈhqKqjg fm<Uùula jkq we;ehs o wfmaCId flf¾'

oekgu;a fidhdf.k ;sfnk ia-jdhqj" ksêj, isg 2018 - 2020 ld,h ;=< 70 Mcf/d" 2021 iy

2022 ld,h ;=< 140 Mcf/d" iy 2023ka Tíng 210 Mcf/d YS>%;djhlska fnod yeÍu isÿ l< yels

jkq we;ehs PRDS n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ' fuu b,aü h:d¾:hla njg m;alr .ekSug" Wod( NG1

b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 2040 jk úg 1"609 Mcf/d iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" 2"525 Mcf/d" wd¾Óluh f,i ,nd .ekSug yels ksê m%udKhla ;sîu w;HjYH fõ' by; j.=.; lr ;sfnk

w.hhka iu. jir 22l ld,mßÉfþohla ;siafia ,nd .ekSug ;sfnk m%udKh;a" NG1 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a 6 Tcf o NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 10 Tcf o jkq we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a ;j;a jir 10la iòyd mßfNdackh ròd mej;Sug kï" ;j;a 10 Tcfl Odß;djhla jdhq ksê i;=j ;sìh hq;=h' kj ksê fidhd .ekSfuka wk;=rej" wfmaCIs; b,aü mj;ajd .ekSug wjYH iemhqqï ,nd .; yels jkq we;ehs n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ' ia-jdhq iemhqu 2018ka wdrïN ù mßfNdackh jeä oshqKq lsÍu iòyd l%fudamdhhka ie,iqï lsÍu iy wjYH flfrk m%;sm;a;s ia:dms; lsÍu w;HjYHfõ' 8'8 iajNdúl jdhq fnod yeÍu j¾;udkfha" l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmhg tmsáka uqyqfoa jdhq iòyd .fõIKh isÿ flfrñka mj;S'

mq;a;,u CPP msysgd we;s ia:dkhg wdikakfha fkdfrdÉfpda, uqyqÿ fjr<g <`.djk f,i k< ud¾.h t<Su iòyd ie,iqï ilia fldg we;' fuf,i f.k tk ia-jdhqj" tys wvx.= úh yels ´kEu >kSNjkh jQ øjHhla bj;a lsÍu we;=,;a msßisÿ lsÍu iy k.rhg heùug fmr iïmSvkhg ,la lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h' fï iòyd" jdhqj f.k tkq ,nk uqyqo hg k< ud¾.h f.dvìug iïnkaOjk ia:dkhg wdikak N+ñhl msßisÿ lsÍfï tallhla iy iïmSvlhla iys;

f.dvìug fiakaÿùfï m¾hka;hla ^LFT& bÈ lsÍug isÿ jkq we;' msßisÿ lrk ,o jdhqj"

wk;=rej k.rh wdikakfha" fndfydaúg flrj<msáfha msysá uOHu m¾hka;h ^CST& fj; k< ud¾.fhka f.k hEu iòyd nd¾ 100l muK iïmSvkhlg ,la lrkq ,efí' k< ud¾. t<Su iòyd myiqu ud¾.hla jkq we;af;a mq;a;,u ÿïßh ud¾.h Tiafia msysá thg wh;a fjka lrk

91

,o N+ñhhs' ;j;a úl,amhla kï" bvï w;am;a lr .ekSfï .eg¨j u. yßk" fkdfrdÉfpdaf,a isg flrj,msáh olajd fjr< Tiafia uqyqo hg k< ud¾.hla t,Su fõ' mdßfNda.slhska fj; fnod yeÍug wjYH mSvkhla hgf;a ia-jdhqj iajdrCIl f;d.hla m%udKh;a mßÈ .nvd lsÍug .nvd lsÍfï gexls lsysmhla flrj<msáfha f.dvk.kq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' fuys fmr úia;r lrk ,o wdldrhg" úúO mdßfNda.slhka fj; ia-jdhqj iemhSu Wfoid k< ud¾. cd,hlska iy m%Odk mßfNda.sl uOHdia:dk fj; f;d. jdyl u.ska uydud¾. Tiafia fyda ÿïßh ud¾. Tiafia fyda m%jdykh flfrk yqjudre moaO;shlska iukaú; jk fnod yeÍfï

moaO;shla f.dvke.Sug wjYH fõ' CNG iy LNG f,i j¾. fol iòydu tajdg wod< hy,CIK ;sfnk neúka f;dard .;a mrsos f;d. jdyl ud¾.fhka m%jdykh l< yels jkq we;'

LNGj, Yla;s >k;ajh ^450kg/m3&CNGj, >k;ajhg ^130kg/m

3& jvd by< ksid CNG f,i

m%jdyKh lsrSug jvd LNG f,i m%jdyKh lsrSfï jdr.Kk wvq úh yelsh' iudk Odß;djhla

iys; ãi,a njqirhl wvx.= Yla;sfhka 63]la LNG lkafÜkrhl f.k hkq ,nk w;r CNG

lkafÜkrhlska f.k hkq ,nkafka 18]la muKs' tksid" LNG m%jdykh" CNG m%jdykhg jvd

,dnodhS jkq we;s w;r" CSTys øùlrKhla bÈ lsÍug o tksid" wjYH jkq we;' j¾;udkfha"

Èklg LNG 50t l Odß;dj iys; l=vd m%udKfha øùlrK moaO;shla USD ñ,shk 2-3l mrdihl msysá msßjehlg ,nd .ekSfï yelshdj ;sfí'126 fïjd mj;ajdf.k hEfï úhouo wvqh'

k< ud¾. u.ska imhkq ,nk ia-jdhqj idudkHfhka CST isg mdßfNda.sl tall fj;g f.k hkq ,nkafka nd¾ 20l muK mSvkhla hgf;ah' mdßfNda.sl wjYH;djhg wkqj" wvq mSvkhla - nd¾ 0'2 - iy 2'0 w;r-iys;j mdßfNda.sl tall fj;g jdhqj heùug ta iòyd iqÿiq mSvk kshdul ia:dms; lsÍu" tksid" wjYHjkq we;' idrdxYhla f,i" mdßfNda.slhska fj; ia-jdhq fnodyeÍfï iòyd cd, moaO;shla ia:dms; lsÍu idudkHfhka my; iòyka mshjrhkaf.ka iukaú; jkq fõ'

1' fndfyda úg ÿïßh ud¾.hg fjka lrk ,o bvï Tiafia fyda fjr< wdikakj uqyqo hg fyda t,k ,o k< ud¾.hla u.ska nd¾ 100l muK mSvkhla hgf;a jdhqj l,amsáh

w¾Ooaùmfha msysá LFT isg flrj<msáfha msysá CST olajd m%jdyKh lsÍu'

2' CST isg flrj,msáfha CCGT n,d.drh iy le,Ks;siai CCGT n,d.dr fj; nd¾ 2l mSvkhla hgf;a jdhqj f.k hk k< ud¾. t<Su'

3' wvq mSvk iïmSvkhla LFT ys§ iy uydud¾. fyda ÿïßh ud¾. Tiafia fyda lkafÜk¾ ;=<

m%jdykh lsÍu Wfoid CNG f;d. jdyl fj; msrùu msKsi CST wêmSvk iïmSvlhla ia:dms; lsÍu'

4' ia-jdhq øùlrK tallhla CST ys ia:dms; lsÍu yd LNG mdßfNda.sl uOHdia:dk fj;

m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd jdyl ;=<g LNG msrùug myiqlï iemhSu'

5' CNG/LNG j,ska Odjkh flfrk r: jdykj,g tajd iemhSu Wfoid m%Odk uydud¾.

fomi CNG/LNG lkafÜkrj,ska jdhq iïmdokh ,nk iemhqïy,a ia:dms; lsÍu'

6' LNG lkafÜkrj,ska jdhq iemhqu ,nkakdjQ" l¾udka; iy fydag,a fukau k.rno

fmfoia jeks wê mdßfNda.sl uOHdia:dk wdY%S;j LNG .nvd lsÍfï iy kej; jdhqlrK tall ia:dms; lsÍu ^ÿïßh m%jdykh iys; k.rj," fuu uOHdia:dk ÿïßh ia:dk wi, ia:dms; l< yelsh&'

7' LNG .nvd lsÍfï tall fj;ska iqÿiq mSvkhla hgf;a" l¾udka;" l¾udka;mqr" iy ksjdi fhdackdl%uj, ;sfnk ksjdi fj; jdhqj iïmdokh lsÍu iòyd foaYSh k< ud¾. cd,hla t<Sug lghq;= lsÍu'

8' ia-jdhqu.ska l%shd;aul jk kj CCGT n,d.dr msysá ia:dk fj; nd¾ 2l muK mSvkhla

hgf;a jdhqj iemhSu msKsi CST isg k< ud¾. t<Sug lghq;= lsÍu'

92

by; iòyka fnodyeÍfï moaO;sh 60 jk rEmfhys fmkajd we;s wdldrhg ia:dms; l< yelsh'

60 jk rEmh ( fhdað; jdhq fnod yeÍfï cd,h127

CST isg m%Odk k< ud¾.h - mSvkh ( 20-100 fjk;a k.rj,g

kd.ßl m%foaYj,g iemhSu

jdhq uOHia:dk

fj; iemhSu

l¾udka; iy n,Yla;s

n,d.drj,g iemhSu

kshdulh 20$4

.nvd lsÍu

.nvd lsÍu

mSvkh( 4 bar

LNG jdylh

CNG jdylh

4$ 4$0

4$02

4$1

4$1

4$2

l¾udka; l¾udka;

fydag, l¾udka; 1

l¾udka; 2

n,Yla;sh LNG .nvd lsÍu

CNG .nvd lsÍu

nr jdyk ieye,a¨ jdyk

øùlrK n,d.drh-

163oC

iïmSvlh mSvkh 250 bar

kshdulh 20$4

93

9' iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh lsÍfï m%;s,dN

iajNdúl jdhq iajNdjfhkau msßisÿ" wvq-msßjeh n,Yla;s úfYaIhls' iajNdúl jdhq Ndú;d lsÍfuka m%;s,dN fndfyduhla w;am;a lr .; yelsh' .Dyia: iy jdKsc" l¾udka;" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wdoS ishü wxYj, Yla;ssh W;amdokh iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lsÍfï yelshdjla mj;S' r: jdykj," l¾udka;Yd,dj," iy ;dmúÿ,s n,d.drj, iajNdúl jdhq oykh" uyckhdf.a fi!LHhg iy mßirhg ydks isÿ lrk ¥IKldrl jdhq úfudapkh wvq lsÍug fya;=fõ'128 Bg wu;rj" foaYShj W;amdokh flreKq iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lsÍu" n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh" kj /lshd wjia:d Wod lsÍu" iy úúO l¾udka; Wfoid fmdaIK f;d. f,i Ndú; lsÍug yels ùu jeks wd¾Ól m%;s,dN ,nd foa' 9'1 n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh y;ajk ^7& rEmfhys fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ" ffcjialkaOh ^44]&" c, úÿ,s n,d.dr ^8]& iy

NCREj,ska ^2]& iukaú; jk foaYSh m%Nj 2010-2012 ld,h ;=< iuia; m%Odk n,Yla;s ksIamdokfhka 54]la iòyd odhl ù ;sfí' Lksc f;,a ^43]lska& iy .,a w`.=re ^3]lska& iukaú; jQ b;sßh wdkhkh lrkq ,en ;sfí' fmdis, bkaOk wdkhkh lsÍfï msßjeh 2012 iy 2013 jirj," ishü wdkhk iòyd jQ msrsjefhka idudkHfhka 25]la muK ù ;sfí128' Lksc f;,a iy .,a w`.=re hk oaú;ajfhysu ñ," iemhqï iy b,a¨ï idOl u; muKla fkdj" l,dmSh N+-foaYmd,kh u; o ròd mj;sk" by< úp,khla iys;j mj;skakls' m%jdyk wxYh iïmQ¾Kfhkau Lksc f;,a u; hefmk w;r" n,Yla;s wxYh j¾;udkfha fndfyda úg Lksc f;,a iy .,a w`.=re u; hefma'

Lksc f;,aj, m%Odk iemhqïlrejka u; ueo fmrÈ. ^ME& rgj, ;sfnk foaYmd,ksl ;;ajh b;du;a wiaÒrfõ' fuu rgj, ksrka;r .egqïldÍ jd;djrK Woa.; ùu iy tajd by< hk úg wm rfÜ f;,a iïmdokhg ndOdùfï yelshdj mj;S' uE; w;S;fha§ Y%S ,xldfõ fndrf;,a wjYH;djhkaf.a m%Odk iemhqïlrejd jQ brdkhg mkjk ,o wd¾Ól iïndOl lrK fldg f.k Y%S ,xldjg ±kgu;a n,mEula we;s ù ;sfí' iïndOl mekùug fmr" Y%S ,xldjg iajNdúl jdhqj iemhSug iy iajNdúl jdhq n,d.drhla ia:dms; lsÍu msKsi wjYH flfrk iyfhda.h ,nd §ug o brdkh leue;af;ka miq jQ kuqÿ wefußldkq iïndOl fya;= fldg f.k fulS ish¨ fhdackd idCId;a lr .ekSug fkdyels úh' Tmamq fkdlr fpdaokd lrk ,o udkj whs;sjdislï W,a,x>khka ms<snò wd¾Ól iïndOl f.k

tñka UN iy wfkl=;a iqmsß n,j;=kaf.ka Y%S ,xldjg ;¾ck t,a,fjñka mj;S' wdydr" T!IO" iy fjk;a w;HjYH NdKav iSud lrñka fndfyda rgj,a u; wd¾Ól iïndOl mkjd ;sîu o udkj whs;sjdislï W,a,x.kh lsÍula nj u;l ;nd .; hq;=h' tksid" ´kEu fudfyd;l ndOd we;s úh yels ndysr iïm;a u; hemSfuka je<lS Y%S ,xldj iajlSh n,Yla;s m%Nj ixj¾Okh lr .ekSu w;HjYH lghq;a;la njg m;a ù ;sfí' n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i wdkhkh lrkq ,nk Lksc f;,aj, isg iajNdúl jdhqj fj; udreùu wm rfÜ n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh iy;sl lsÍula jkq we;'

iajNdúl jdhqj .fõIKh lsÍug iu.dój" NCRE u.ska W;amdÈ; n,Yla;shg bv ,nd oSu

msKsi cd;sl úÿ,s cd,h m%;sixialrKh lsÍu;a iu. NCRE ixj¾Okh lsÍug iy tajdhska Wmrsu m%fhdack .ekSug m%hka;hla oeßh hq;=h' j¾;udkfha idudkHfhka 10]la jeks wvq w.hhl mj;sk ld¾hCIu;djh" .Dyia: msiSï lghq;=j,g Ndú;d flfrk ffcjialkaOh u.ska Yla;sh ,nd .ekSfïoS jeä ÈhqKq lsÍugo wjYH fõ' fï iòyd fhdod .; yels tla l%uhla

jkafka" is,skavrj,g mqrjd wdydr msiSu iòyd .Dyia:j Ndú; l< yels DMEffcjialkaOfhka

94

ksIamdokh lsÍuhs' fuu.ska" wvq ffcjialkaO m%udKhla Ndú; lrñka .Dyia: n,Yla;s wjYH;djh imqrd .ekSug yelshdj ,ndfoa' 9'2 ksfrda.su;aa Ôú;hla Wfoid msßisÿ jd;h ñksidg fi!LHu;a Ôú;hla .; lsÍug msßisÿ jd;h w;HjYH fõ' Tyq wdYajdi lrk foa Tyq i;= jeo.;a bkaøshhkaf.a idudkH l%shdldß;ajhg ;¾ckhla jk OQ,l ix>glj,ska f;dr úh hq;=h' oy wg ^18& jk j.=fjys fmkakqï fldg we;s mßÈ ãi,aj,ska Odjkh flfrk r: jdykj,ska iy úfYaIfhkau .,a w`.=re iy Lksc f;,a oyk ;dm úÿ,s n,d.drj,ska úfudapkh flfrk ¥Il" fndfyda Yajik wdndO fukau ñksidg W.% ud;aißl w¾nqohla ^ms<sldjla& we;sùu

mjd isÿúh yelsh' j¾;udkfha Y%S ,xldj rch fi!LH wxYfhys mqkrdj¾;k úhoï iòyd LKR ì,shk 100lg wdikak m%udKhla úhoï lrhs129' fi!LH wud;HdxYfha mqj;a i`.rdjlg wkqj" Yajik wdndO iòyd m%;sldr flreKq frda.Skaf.a m%;sY;h 10]la ù ;snqKq w;r tu.ska .uH

jkafka Yajik wdndO iys; frda.Skag m%;sldr lsÍu iòyd jehjk jd¾Isl úhou LKR ì,shk 10la úh yels njh'

fuys fmr úia;r lr we;s mßÈ iajNdúl jdhqj ish,qu wxYj,g y`ÿkajd oSu" m%Odk GHG jk

CO2 iy wfkl=;a jdhq ¥Il jk SO2, NO2 iy mQ¾K wj,ïNs; wxY= ^TSP& úfudapkh ùu wvq lr,kq we;' fïjd m%Odk jYfhka ksmofjkafka m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxYj,ska jk w;r fjk;a wxYj,ska - .Dyia: yd jdKsc wxYh" iy l¾udka; wxYh - we;s lrk odhl;ajh b;d

wvq uÜgul mj;S' fïjdfha úfudapk uÜgï .Kkh lsrSug" j.= 23 ^HH&C&" j.= 24 ^ld¾ñl&" j.= 27 ^m%jdyk& iy j.= 30 ^n,Yla;s& olajd we;s 2040 iòyd m%CIsma; flreKq úúO bkaOkj, n,Yla;s mßfNdack w.hhka mokï fldgf.k we;' úfudapk idOl" bkaOkh u; fukau oyk l%shdj<sh u; ròd mj;S' mßfNdackh lrk ,o iEu bkaOkhla iòyd iy wxY y;r iòyd

.Kkh lsÍu msKsi fhdod.;a" 2006 IPCC ks¾kdhlj,ska ,nd .kakd ,o idOl 32 jk j.=fjys

olajd we;' f;,aj, wvx.= i,a*¾ m%udKh CPC ksIamdok msßú;rj,ska ,nd f.k we;'

32 jk j.=j ( ¥Il úfudapkh .Kkh lsÍfï§ Ndú; flfrk úfudapk idol

bkaOkh úfudapk idOlh 130 i,a*¾ 131

CO2

g/mJ

NO2

g/GT

TSP

g/GT

m%;sY;h

wxYh ish,a, HH Ind Tran Pwr HH Ind Tran Pwr HH Ind Tran

ãi,a 76,300 100 200 250 280 5 5 5 5 0.3 0.3 0.3

bkaOk f;,a 79,690 100 200 280 13 13 11 3.0 1.5

.efid,Ska 69,300 100 150 - -

LPG 63,100 100 100 - -

N+ñf;,a 71,900 100 - 0.3

.,a w`.=re 97,460 300 300 10 40 1.0 0.7

NG 57,790 50 150 150 150 - - - - 0.3 0.3 -

HH : .Dyia: iy jdKsc Ind: l¾udka; Tran : m%jdyk Pwr - n,Yla;s ish¨ úfudapkhkaf.a m%Odk m%Njh n,Yla;s wxYh jk w;r m%jdyk wxYh tys fojk ;ek .kS' n,Yla;s iy m%jdyk wxYj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapkj,g jvd .Dyia: yd jdKsc iy l¾udka; wxYj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapkh fnfyúka wvq uÜgul mj;S' by; j.=fjys

fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ" imhkq ,nk talSh n,Yla;s tallhlg by<u CO2 úfudapkh .,a w`.=re ,nd fok w;r wvqu úfudapkh iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska ,ndfoa' bkaOkfhys wvx.= i,a*¾

95

m%udKh u; SO2 úfudapkh ròd mj;sk w;r Wml,ams; w.hhka l¾udka;" m%jdyk iy

n,Yla;s wxY iòyd jq wjidk ;Sre ;=fkys olajd we;' iajNdúl jdhqj SO2 ksmoùula isÿ

fkdlrhs' m%jdyk wxYfhaoS yereKq fldg fjk;a bkaOkj,g jvd wvq NO2 úfudapkhla iajNdúl jdhqj wrnhd olakg ,efí' iajNdúl jdhqj lsisu wjia:djl wxY=uh øjH ksmoùula

isÿ fkdlrhs' iqmqreÿ b,a,qï wjia:dj hgf;a fuu wxYj,skaúfudapkh jkakdjQ SO2NO2 iy

TSP ¥Il jdhq m%udKhka ms<sfj,ska 61" 62 iy 63 rEmj, fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' Bg wkqrEmS

NG1 b,a,qï wjia:dj hgf;a úfudapk m%udKhka ms<sfj,ska 64" 65" iy 66 hk rEmj, olajd ;sfí'

61 jk rEmh ( iqmqreÿb,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; SO2 úfudapkh

62 jk rEmh ( iqmqreÿb,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh

96

63 jk rEmh ( iqmqreÿb,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; TSP úfudapkh

64 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; SO2 úfudapkh

65 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh

66 jk rEmh ( NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY iòyd m%CIsma; TSP úfudapkh

b,a,qï wjia:d ;=k - BAU, NG1 iy NG2 hgf;a ish,qu wxYj,ska 2040 olajd CO2 iy m%Odk

¥Il ;=k - SO2, NO2 iy TSP úfudapk iuia; uÜgï 33 jk j.=fjys fukau 67" 68 iy 69 rEmj,ska fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' .,a w`.=re mdol n,Yla;s W;amdokh iajNdúl jdhqj mdol n,Yla;s W;amdokhg mßj¾;kh lsÍu iy m%jdykh iòyd ãi,a yd .efid,Ska fjkqjg

97

iajNdúl jdhqj fj; udreùu" ishü ¥Il úfudapkhka" úfYaIfhka SO2 iy TSP" wvqlsrSug fya;= jkq we;'

33 jk j.=j ( b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k hgf;a CO2" SO2" NO2 iy TSP úfudapk

j¾Ih BAU NG1 NG2

CO2

Mt

SO2

Kt

NO2

kt

TSP

kt

CO2

Mt

SO2

kt

NO2

kt

TSP

kt

CO2

Mt

SO2

kt

NO2

kt

TSP

Kt

2014 18.2 77.2 49.2 2.4 17.4 77.2 49.4 2.43 17.4 77.2 49.4 2.4

2016 22.5 91.4 61.3 3.3 21.3 91.0 61.0 3.34 21.3 91.0 61.0 3.3

2018 27.7 111.9 76.3 4.8 25.5 102.5 73.7 4.48 22.9 63.2 65.2 3.1

2020 33.2 135.2 92.5 6.5 30.8 104.3 89.9 6.15 26.0 65.1 73.6 3.2

2022 38.9 158.6 109.2 8.1 33.3 106.4 96.6 6.21 28.6 67.1 80.3 3.2

2024 44.9 182.3 126.4 9.8 37.1 104.7 105.7 6.15 32.2 63.3 88.4 3.1

2026 49.2 195.5 138.3 10.7 40.7 105.5 114.6 6.18 35.6 61.6 95.9 3.1

2028 55.9 219.6 156.9 12.4 44.5 106.3 124.0 6.21 39.1 59.7 103.5 3.1

2030 60.9 233.3 170.3 13.3 48.6 107.3 134.0 6.24 42.8 57.4 111.4 3.1

2032 68.4 258.0 190.8 15.0 52.9 108.3 144.7 6.27 46.7 54.6 119.5 3.0

2034 75.6 281.7 210.4 16.6 57.1 109.3 154.7 6.31 50.4 51.3 126.4 3.0

2036 84.1 307.1 233.2 18.4 62.1 110.4 167.0 6.34 54.8 49.5 135.2 3.0

2038 93.3 332.9 257.5 20.1 67.6 111.5 180.2 6.37 59.6 48.1 144.4 2.9

2040 103.2 359.2 283.4 21.9 73.6 112.7 194.5 6.40 64.7 46.1 153.8 2.9

67 jk rEmh ( úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish¿ wxY i|yd m%CIsma; SO2 úfudapk

n,Yla;s wxYfhys"iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a m%d:ñl bkaOkh .,a w`.=re jk w;r" NG1

iy NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:d hgf;a w¿;ska tla lsÍug kshñ; kj n,d.drj, m%d:ñl bkaOk iajNdúl jdhqj jkq we;' tys m%;sM,hla jYfhka" iajNdúl jdhqj m%uqL jdhqj njg m;aùfuka

wk;=rej 2023ka Tíng SO2 iy TSP úfudapkh iSud iys; jkq we;'

by; j.=fjys fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ" imhkq ,nk talSh n,Yla;s tallhlg by<u CO2 úfudapkh .,a w`.=re ,nd fok w;r wvqu úfudapkh iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska ,ndfoa'

bkaOkfhys wvx.= i,a*¾ m%udKh u; SO2 úfudapkh ròd mj;sk w;r Wml,ams; w.hhka l¾udka;" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxY iòyd jq wjidk ;Sre ;=fkys olajd we;' iajNdúl jdhqj

SO2 ksmoùula isÿ fkdlrhs' m%jdyk wxYfhaoS yereKq fldg fjk;a bkaOkj,g jvd wvq

98

NO2úfudapkhla iajNdúl jdhqj wrnhd olakg ,efí' iajNdúl jdhqj lsisu wjia:djl wxY=uh øjH ksmoùula isÿ fkdlrhs'

68 jk rEmh ( úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ish¿ wxY i|yd m%CIsma; NO2 úfudapkh

69 jk rEmh ( úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a úúO wxY i|yd m%CIsma; TSP úfudapkh fmr fldgfiys úia;r fldg we;s mßÈ uy ckhdf.a fi!LHhg msßueish fkdyels ydkshla isÿ

l< yels SO2, NO2 iy TSP w;s úYd, m%udKhla jdhqf.da,hg úfudapkh ùu"iqmqreÿ b,a ï wjia:dj hgf;a oS isÿúh yels nj wjOdkhg ,la ù we;' iajNdúl jdhq mokï fldg.;a

n,Yla;s moaO;shla hgf;a tjeks wjodkula fkdue;' NG1 iy NG2 b,a,qï wjia:d hgf;a

NO2" SO2 iy TSP úfudapkh ùu úYd, f,i wvq ù we;s nj fuu rEm fmkakqï lr;s' 9'3 fi!LH wjOdku wvq lsÍug wdrlaIs; c,h wmf.a YÍrh ksishdldrj l%shd;aul ùug kï msßisÿ c,h ks;s m;d mdkh lsÍug wjYH fõ' .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska úfudapkh jk riÈh c, ud¾. fj; .uka lr wjidkfha u;aiH wkqNjh u.ska ñksiqkaf.a wdydr fõ,g we;=,a fõ' .,a w`.=re n,d.drj, jdhq- wdjrK m%foaYj, we;s mig wdiksla iy riÈh we;=,q 41 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;s OQ,l f,day ñY%úh yels w;r wjidkfha tu OQ,l f,day mdxY= c,;,hg tl;= ùfuka ñksiqka mdkh iòyd fmdf<dfjka weo .kq ,nk c,h ¥IKhg ,la flf¾'

99

iajNdúl jdhqfjka l%shd;aul jk n,Yla;s n,d.dr iu." ñksiqkaf.a fi!LHhg ydkshla we;s lrk tjeks lsisu wdldrhl c, OQIlhla we;s ùug bvla ksielju ke;' mi iy mdxY= c, ;,h ¥IKhg ,la lrkq ,nk .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.dr úYd, ixLHdj fjkqjg wkd.; n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lrkafka kï" ¥Is; c,h Ndú; lsÍu u.ska we;s flfrk frda.j,ska fmf<k frda.Ska iòyd m%;sldr lsÍu msKsi rchg jehjk w;s úYd, úhou j<lajd .ekSug yels jkq we;' 9'4 ixpdrl l¾udka;hg Wmldr flfrk fkdls,sá mßirh uyckhd ksjdvq wjia:dj, ixpdrh iòyd ie,iqï lrk úg" msßisÿ iy ¥Ilj,ska f;dr m%foaY ms<snòj fidhd n,kq we;' wd¾Ól ixj¾Ok wud;HdxYh u.ska ilia fldg we;s ixpdrl ixj¾Ok l%fudamdh 2011-2016g wkqj" wm rgg meñfKk úfoaY ixpdrlhkaf.a ixLHdj oekg mj;sk ñ,shk 1l w.h 2016 jk úg ñ,shk 2'5 olajd o 2020 jk úg ñ,shk 4'0 olajd o

j¾Okh jkq we;ehs o jd¾Islj USD ñ,shk 8"000l wfmaCIs; wdodhula ,nd fokq we;ehs o n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ132' úfoaYSh ixpdrlhska wm rgg meñKsfï tjeks j¾Okhla w;a m;a lr .; yelafla Tjqka yg jd;h" c,h iy N+ñh ¥IKfhka f;dr mßirhla ,nd fokafka kï muKs' .,a w`.=re f.k tk jdylj,ska f.dvnEu iy tajd ;dm n,d.drh fj; m%jdykh myiq lrùu msKsi .,a w`.=re n,d.dr idudkHfhka ia:dms; lrkq ,nkafka fjr<g wdikak msysàul h' oekgu;a fkdfrdÉfpdaf,ays n,d.drhla ia:dms; lr ;sfnk w;r ;%sl=Kdu,hg wdikak idïmQ¾ys ;j;a n,d.drhla bÈlsÍug ie,iqï ilia fldg ;sfí' fuu ia:dk folu" ixpdrl l¾udka;h ixj¾Okh lsÍu iòyd y`ÿkdf.k ;sfnk" ms<sfj,ska l,amsáh iy ks,dfõ,sj,g wdikakfha msysgd ;sfí' fuu m%foaYj, ixpdrl l¾udka;h iòyd wjYH flfrk fydag,a" iy uyd ud¾. jeks há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍu oekgu;a wdrïN lrkq ,en ;sfí' fuu m%foaYj,g ixpdrlhska wdl¾IKh lr .ekSug rch ienE m%hka;hla orhs kï" fuu m%foaY ¥IKfhka f;dr m%foaY f,i m%ldYhg m;a l< hq;= w;r jd;h" mi iy c,ud¾. ¥IKh flfrk .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.dr tlS ia:dk wdikakfha bÈlsÍu isÿ fkdl< hq;=h' ta fjkqjg iajNdúl jdhq n,d.dr f.dvk.kafka kï" tu lreKg m%isoaêhla ,nd Èh yels jk w;r jeämqr ixpdrlhska wdl¾IKh lr .ekSu msKsi ixpdrl l¾udka;fha m%j¾Ok f,aLkj, th Ndú; lsÍuo isÿ l< yelsh' ;u foam< iòyd n,Yla;sh iïmdokh lr .ekSug wd.ka;=l

i;aldr wxYh u.ska NCRE Ndú;hg .ekSu Èßu;a l< hq;=h' 9'5 wvq msßjeh n,Yla;s m%Nj u.ska ld¾ñl j¾Okh kexùu

A 14 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s fhdað; cd;sl fN!;sl ie,eiau hgf;a" l¾udka;j, j¾Okh iòyd tjeks tla tla mqrjrhla iòyd l¾udka; msysgqùu Wfoid tla ia:dkhlg wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï imhñka l¾udka; mqrjr úYd, ixLHdjla ia:dms; lsÍug kshñ;h' fuu l¾udka; mqrjr iòyd n,Yla;sh iy yqud,h hk oaú;ajhu wjYHfõ' fïjdfha úÿ,sn, wjYH;djh imqrd,Su msKsi fuu l¾udka; mqrjr ;=< iajNdúl jdhqfjka l%shdflfrk l=vd

CCGT n,Yla;s n,d.dr bÈlsÍu isÿ l< yelsh' n,Yla;s n,d.drfhka wmf;a hk ;dmh Ndú;

lr yqud,h W;amdokh lrkq ,nk ixhqla; ;dm iy n,Yla;s ^CHP& moaO;s f,i fïjd l%shd;aul l< yelsh' fujeks moaO;sj,g iuia; ld¾hCIu;djh 90]la olajd muK by< kexùu isÿ l< yelsh' ÿria: ia:dkj,ska úÿ,sn,h f.k tk úg isÿjk /yeka ydksh o wvqùu isÿfõ' j¾;udkfha" úÿ,sn, iemhqfï oS isÿjk tjeks ydksh 12]la muKfõ' ;dm ,smj,a" fmdarKq iy Wÿka jeks fhdod .ekSï iòyd wjYH flfrk iDcq ;dm Yla;sh jvd M,odhS wdldrhlg iy fmfg%da,shï f;,a fyda ffcj ialkaO fyda oykh lsÍfïoS isÿúh yels mßir ydkshg jvd wvq n,mEula iys;j W;amdokh lsÍu iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj fhdod .;

100

yelsh' ksIamdokfhys .=Kd;aulNdjh jeä ÈhqKq lrkq ,nk iy ksIamdokfhys l%shdmámdáfhka m%;sfCIam flfrk m%udKh wvq lrk" WIAK;aj md,kh we;=<;aj ld¾hidOkh iòyd jvd hym;a md,khla iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú;h iu. <`.d lr .ekSug yelshdj ,efnkq we;' l¾udka;j,g msßisÿ n,Yla;s m%Njhla ;sfí kï" l¾udka; iòyd jeämqr úfoaYSh iDcq

wdfhdack ^FDI& wdl¾IKh lr .ekSug yels jkq we;' fndfyda l¾udka; iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i l%shdlrkq we;' wm rfÜ fmdfydrla f,i CIKsl fj<òfmd<la ;sfnk ksid" oekgu;a" iajNdúl jdhqfjka hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍfï we;s yelshdj ms<snòj i,ld n,d ;sfí' fuhg wu;rj" wu;r /lshd wjia:d imhk iy wm rfÜ wd¾Ól j¾Okh by< kxjk" iajNdúl jdhqj mdol fldg.;a fjk;a fndfyda l¾udka; wdrïN lsÍug yels jkq we;' 9'6 wdydr iqrCIs;;djh iy;sl lsÍu Y%S ,xldfõ by<u ksIamdos;;djhla iys; lDIsld¾ñl bvï msysgd ;sfnkafka jhU m<d;

^NWP&" W;=re ueo m<d; ^NCP& iy kef.kysr m<d; ÊP& hk m<d;a ;=<h' ù fnda.h fukau w;sf¾l fnda. o fuu m<d;a ;=< mq`M,a f,i j.d lrkq ,efí' uyje,s .`. W;=re ueo m<d;g yrjñka fuu m<d;a iòyd jdß c, iïmdokh isÿ lsÍu msKsi rch w;suy;a uqo,a iïNdrhla úhoï lr ;sfí' f.dùkag ;u bvlvï jir mqrd j.dlsÍug fuu.ska yelshdj ,nd oS ;sfí' fuu m<d;a ;=fkys by< lDIsld¾ñl ksIamdÈ;;djhg tla fya;=jla jkafka tlS m%foaYj,g wju j,dl=`M wdjrKhla iys;j jir mqrd by< iQ¾h úlsrKhla ,eîuh' N+ñh iu;, ùu ksid Ldokh w,amùfuka ydhkhlg ,la fkdù mfia idrj;aNdjh mj;ajd .ekSug yels ù ;sfí' mq;a;,ug tmsáka ngysr fjrf<a oekgu;a ia:dms; fldg we;s .,a w`.=re n,d.drfhka iy ;%sl=Kdu,hg ol=Kska kef.kysr fjr<g wdikakj msysá idïmQ¾ys bÈlsÍug fhdað; n,d.drfhka isÿ flfrk úfudapk fuu ;;ajh fjkia lrkq we;' fuu n,d.drj,ska ¥IKh isÿ flfrk úfudapk n,d.drj,ska úisÍ .sh miq fnda. iy fjk;a .yfld< u; wys;lr n,mEula isÿ lrñka N+ñh Tiafia ;ekam;a ùu isÿ jkq we;' ksß;È.

fudaiï ^SW& udi ;=< mq;a;,u n,d.drfhka úfudapkh jk ¥Il rg wNHka;rhg yudf.k

f.dia jhU m<df;a ^NWP& iy W;=re ueo m<df;a ^NCP& f.dúìï u; ;ekam;a jkq we;' ta yd

iudkj" Bidk È. ^NE& fudaiï udi ;=<" idïmQ¾ n,d.drfhys ¥Il rg ;=<g .idf.k f.dia

kef.kysr m<df;a ÊP& iy W;=re ueo m<df;a ^NCP& f.dúìï u; ;ekam;a jkq we;' .,a w`.=re oykh" lDIs bvï u; jd¾Islj fgdka .Kkska f,day ;ekam;aùu Tiafia lDIsld¾ñl mi ¥IKh ùug u. mdok w;r" tu.ska fnda. wiajekak wvq lsÍug iy wdydrhg .; yels fnda. ;=< nerf,day ixÑ; ùug u. mdohs' .,a w`.=re n,Yla;s n,d.dr ;j ;j;a bÈlsÍu

wLKavj isÿ lsÍfï CEBys ie,eiau;a iu." fnda. j.d lsÍu iòyd ¥IKfhka f;dr lDIs ld¾ñl N+ñ mj;ajd .ekSu ÿIalr lghq;a;la jkq we;' bvïj, ksIamdos;;djh ÿ¾j, jqjfyd;a th rfÜ wdydr iqrCIs;Ndjhg ;¾ckhla jkq we;' ie,iqï lrk ,o .,a w`.=re n,d.dr iajNdúl jdhq n,d.dr u.ska wdfoaYkh lsÍu N+ñh ¥IKfhka f;drj ;nd .ekSu iy;sl lrkq we;s w;r wdydr iqrCIs;;djh wm rg ;=< ;yjqre lsÍu o isÿ lrkq we;' 9'7 OQ,l f,day iy úlsrKYS,S øjHj,ska f;dr rgla

101

fuys 6'3 fldgfiys úia;r l< mßÈ" .,a w`.=re oykh mq`Miaik ,o .,a w`.=re m%udKfhka 10]la muK w`M b;sß lrhs' fuu w`Mj, riÈh" wd¾iksla" iy leâñhï jeks OQ,l ner f,day wvx.=fõ' wm rfÜ mi ;=< ;ekam;a ùug bv we;s m%udK 41 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' ;jo" fld<U úYaj úoHd,fha mßfhaIljreka ^52 msgqj n,kak& úiska ;yjqre lr we;s mßÈ .,a w`.=re w`Mj, ie,lsh hq;= m%udKhla úlsrKYS,S øjH wvx.=fõ' úl,am l%shdud¾. ;sìhoS;a ie,iqï

lrk ,o 4"500 MWg jvd jeä Odß;djhlska hq;a .,a w`.=re n,d.dr bÈ lrk ,o úg by; lS OQ,l øjH rgmqrd ;eka ;ekaj, oeóu wkd.; mrmqrg isÿ lrk uyd wmrdOhla f,i ye`Èkaúh yelsh' by; Odß;djh iys; fhdað; .,a w`.=re n,d.dr" .,a w`.=rej, 10]l w`M m%udKhla we;ehs wkqudk l< úg" jd¾Islj w`M fgdka ñ,shk 1la ckkh lrkq we;' .,a w`.=re wêl f,i Ndú;

flfrk USA" Ökh" fyda bkaÈhdj jeks rgj,a fuka fkdj" Y%S ,xldj" ñksiqkg Ôj;aùug iy wdydr fnda. j.d lsÍug bvlv m%udKj;a fkdjk yd wêl f,i ;onoh iys; l=vd N+ñhlska iukaú; l=vd rgls' ñksiqka úiska W;amdokh flfrk >k wmøjH bj;a lsÍu iòyd iqÿiq ìïlvla fidhd .ekSug k.r iNdj,g wmuK ÿIalr;dj,g uqyqKmEug isÿ ù ;sfí' tfyhska" tjka jd;djrKhl OQ,l úlsrKYS,S øjH iys; .,a w`.=re w`M bj;a lsÍu iòyd ñksia jdifhka f;dr N+ñhla fidhd .ekSu w;sYh ÿIalr jkq we;' n,Yla;sh W;amdokh iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj fhdod .kafka kï" tjeks >k wmøjH tl;= ùula isÿ fkdjk w;r wm rg OQ,l yd úlsrKYS,S øjHj,ska f;dr rgla jkq we;' 9'8 cd;sl wd¾Ólh jeä ÈhqKq lsÍu

;siay;r ^34& jk j.=fjys fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ 2012 oS LKR ñ,shk 432"368la iy 2013 oS LKR ñ,shk 151"385la jQ wm rfÜ f.jqï fYaIfhys mq`M,a ys`.hla mj;S' fuu ys`.h" úfoaYSh nyqmd¾Yaúh uQ,H wdh;kj,ska Kh ,ndf.k mshjkq ,efí' jir .Kkdjl iuqÉð; Kh

m%udKh jk oekg wm rfÜ mj;sk Kh m%udKh 2013 j¾IfhaoS USD ì,shk 39'7la 133 fyda

LKR ì,shk 5"160la úh' rch oekg úhoï lrk iïmQ¾K wdkhk ìf,ka 25]la muK fmfg%da,shï bkaOk u; úhoï lrhs' fuh wd¾:slfha ixj¾Okhg ndOdjla fõ' f;,a wdkhkh lsÍfï úhou ;jÿrg;a by< oeuqjfyd;a th rfÜ wd¾Ólhg wu;r mSvkhla tla lsÍula jkq we;'

34 jk j.=j ( 2012 iy 2013 ld,h ;=< cd;sl wmkhk-wdkhk fYaIh134

whs;uh LKR ñ,shk uQ,dY%h

CBSL AR 2012 2013

wdkhk 2,441,879 2,323,128 75 jeks j.=j

wmkhk 1,245,531 1,344,054 65 jeks j.=j

fm%aIK 763,980 827,689 85 jeks j.=j

uq`M wdodhu 2,009,511 2,171,743 fYaIh 432,368 151,385

fjr<ska tmsgo we;=,;aj wm rfÜ ika;l N+ñh ;=< jdKscj Wlyd .; yels jdhq ksê fidhd .kakd ,oafoa kï" by; lS úfoaYSh n,Yla;s iïm;a u; hemSu wju lr .; yels jk w;r f.jqï fYaIh by< hEu o j<lajd .ekSug yels jkq we;' ixj¾Okh iòyd n,Yla;s jeämqr wjYHjk w;r bkaOk wdkhkfhys ´kEu jeäùula iòyd wjYH lrk msßjeh" wdydr iy T!IO jeks fjk;a w;HjYH mdßfNda.sl NdKav wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd fhdojk uqo,a u.ska mshùug isÿ jkq we;'

102

bkaOk foaYShj imhd .; yels kï fjk;a w;HjYH NdKav wdkhkh iòyd úYd, úfoaY úksuh m%udKhla b;sß lr .; yels jkq we;' ;ju;a fidhd .ekSug kshñ; fldgia ;=< iajNdúl jdhq úYd, ksê yuqjqjfyd;a 34 fjks j.=fjys fmkakqï lr we;s f.jqï fYaIfhys j¾;udk ys`.h mshjd .ekSug Wmldr lr .; yels" lsishï w;sßla; iajNdúl jdhq m%udKhla wmkhkh lsÍug o isÿ l< yels jkq we;' 9'9 /lshd wjia:d by< kexùu fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lrk l¾udka; ixj¾Okh lsÍu" iajNdúl jdhqj rg mqrd úiqrejd yeÍu" iy kd.ßl m%foaY iy l¾udka; mqrhka ;=< fnod yeÍu iòyd mqyqKqj ,;a mqoa.,hska úYd, ixLHdjla M,odhl f,i fufyhùu isÿ l< hq;=fõ' uQ,sl ;dCIKsl mqyqKqj iys;j Tjqka fiajfha msysgúh hq;= jk w;r" bka wk;=rej Tjqka kshef,k lghq;a;g wkqj úfYaI mqyqKqjla ,nd oSu isÿ l< hq;=h' ´kEu ldkaÿùul oS isÿúh yels wk;=rej,oS l%shdlsÍu o we;=<;a wdrCIl wx.hka wvx.= jk mqyqKqjla ,nd oSu wksjd¾hfhka isÿ l< hq;=h' tfyhska" ienE f,i lghq;= mshjfrka mshjr y÷qkajd oSug m%udKj;a ld,hlg fmr Tjqka fiajfha msysgqùfï jevigyk wdrïN l< hq;=h' há;, myiqlï f.dvke.Su" wk;=rej tk k<ud¾. cd, fufyhqï iy kv;a;= lghq;= iòyd ;dCIKsl mqoa.,hka oyia .Kkla wjYH jk nj weia;fïka;= fldg ;sfí' wfmau iajNdúl jdhqj Wlyd .ekSfï iy m%fhdackhg .ekSfï úIhh wrnhd cd;sl Y%uh" oekqu" ;dCIKh fiajd iy m¾fhaIK yelshdjka iòyd iyNd.S ùu yd ixj¾Okh lsÍu u.ska fjk;a jákdlula wdfoaY l< m%;s,dN iïmQ¾K iudchgu ,efnkq we;' fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; fldg l¾udka; ixj¾Okh lsÍug we;s yelshdj i;=j iEu uÜgulu oyia .Kkla Rcq /lshd wjia:d-;dCIKsl" Wmldrl fiajd" iy l<ukdlrKh iy ksIamdÈ; ksmehqï fj<òdfï iy fiajd iemhSfï fndfyda jl% /lshd wjia:d ìyslsÍfï yelshdj ;sfí' 9'10 cd;Hka;r iïuq;s j.lSï bgq lsrSu .,a w`.=re n,d.drj,ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk iy ksl=;a lsÍï ms<snò ie,ls,a,g .kakd

cd;Hka;r .súiqï folla ;sfí' bka tlla GHG úfudapk ksid we;s úh yels foaY.=K fjkiaùï ms<snòj jk w;r wfkl riÈh ksl=;a lsÍu iïnkaOfhka fõ' n,Yla;s m%Njh f,i .,a w`.=rej,ska iajNdúl jdhqj fj; udreùu fulS iïuq;s oaú;ajhgu wkql+,j lghq;= lsÍug yelshdj ,ndfoa'

foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a rduq iïuq;sh ÛNFCCC&

wdikak jYfhka cd;Ska ish,a, u.ska wkqu; lrk ,o UNFCCC j¾I .Kkdjlg fmr n,d;aul lrk ,oS' iïuq;sfha lsfhdf;da ixOdkfha uq,a flgqïmf;ys ffk;sl neòSï hgf;a"

ÈhqKq rgj,a md¾Yaj muKla GHG úfudapkh wvq lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h' fï jk úg th lekal=ka ;SrKh u.ska ixj¾Okh fjñka mj;sk rgj,a flfryso n,mdk whqrska kj kS;s mkjd ;sfnk w;r" ta wkqj" fuu rgj,a o zz2020 idudkH b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a idfmaCIj úfudapkh iòyd wj.ukhla ,nd .ekSu b,lal fldg f.k ;srir ixj¾Ok ikao¾Nh ;=< cd;sl jYfhka iqÿiq

wjulrK l%shdud¾.ZZ .ekSu isÿ l< hq;= w;r" th" UNFCCC f,alï ld¾hd,h fj; jd¾;d lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=h' ÈhqKqfjñka mj;sk rgj,a ;u wjulrK l%fudamdhhka f,alï ld¾hd,hg okajk ,o úg" tlS wjulrk hdka;%K l%shdjg kexùu msKsi ixj¾Okh fjñka mj;sk rgj,g ixj¾ê; rgj,a uQ,Huh wdOdr iemhSu isÿ l< hq;= nj o fulS ;SrKfhys iòykafõ'

103

úÿ,sn, W;amdokh iòyd .,a w`.=re u; hemSu jeäùu;a iu." Y%S ,xldfõ n,Yla;s wxYfhka

isÿjk CO2 úfudapkh" CEBys LTGE ie,iqfuys olajd we;s mßÈ 2010 oS jd¾Islj fgdka ñ,shk

^Mt& 06 isg 2025 jk úg 25 Mt/yearolajd by< hEug bv ;sfí' fuh" 317]l jeä ùuls' idudkH b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a isÿjk úfudapkh f,i 2025 úfudapk m%udKh ie,lsh yels w;r" wkd.; n,Yla;s W;amdokh iòyd ia-jdhqj fj; udreùu u.ska úfudapk wvq lsÍug wjulrK l%fudamdhhka wm rg u.ska l%shd;aul lr ;sìh hq;= jkq we;'

Y%S ,xldfõ" 0'78 t CO2Eq/Capita135 iys;j wju úfudapk uÜgula j¾;udkfha mj;sk w;r"

j¾;udk uÜgïj,g idfmaCIj ;jÿrg;a úfudapkh wvq lsÍfï yelshdjla fkdue;' Y%S ,xldjg isÿ l< yels jkafka wkd.; úfudapk wvq lsÍu iy th wkd.;fha iqmqreÿ b,a,qï wjia:djg

^BAU& idfmaCIj wvqùula f,i fmkakqï lsÍuhs' ;u wjulrK b,lal UNFCCC fj; oekqï oSfïoS fndfyda rgj,a fuu l%fudamdh fhdod .kq ,nhs'

by; iòyka úfudapk wvq lsÍu hkqfjka woyia lrkafka" jdhqf.da,fhys ;sfnk m%Odk GHG

jk -CO2,CH4 yd N2O - iuQy f,i wvq lsÍuhs' tajdfha f.da,Sh WKqiqï úNjh ^GWP& i,ld n,ñka fuu úfudapk iuQylrKh lsÍu isÿ lrk w;r" my; iòyka iólrKh Ndú; fldg

fidhd .kq ,nk CO2Eq w.hhka u.ska th m%ldY lsÍu isÿ lrhs'

CO2Eq = CO2 + CH4 * GWPCH4 + N2O *GWPN2O

jir 100l ld,mßÉfþohla Tiafia CO2ksid isÿjk f.da,Sh WKqiqï úNjhg idfmaCIj"

GWPCH4 iy GWPN2O f,i y`ÿkajkq ,nkafka" ms<sfj,ska CH4 iy N2O ksid we;sjk f.da,Sh

WKqiqï úNjhka fõ'136 fmr idlÉPd lr we;s mßÈ iEu W;amdok b,a¨ï wjia:djla - BAU,

NG1 iy NG2- iòyd CH4 iy N2Oj, úfudapk w.hhka ,nd .kq ,nkafka 35 jk j.=fjys

olajd we;s úúO bkaOk iòyd jQ GHG úfudapk idOl Ndú; lsÍfuks' fuu j.=fjys idfmaCI

GWP w.hhkao olajd we;'

7 jk rduqj ( foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a rduq iïuq;sh mD:súfha foaY.=K moaO;sh iu. ydksodhl f,i wka;¾l%shd lsÍu j<lk uÜgulg jdhq

f.da,h ;=< yß;d.dr jdhq ^GHG& idkaøKh ia:djr lr .ekSfï wruqK we;sjfoaY.=K

úm¾hdi ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a rduq iïuq;shÛNFCCC)" 1992 § f,dalfha cd;Ska úiska ms<sf.k ;sfí' fuu iïuq;sh" 1997 § foaY.=K úm¾hdih ms<snò lsfhdf;da ixOdkfha uq,a

flgqïmf;ys olajd we;s GHG úfudapk w.hhka 2008-2012 ld,mßÉfþoh ;=< ÈhqKq rgj,a md¾Yajh u.ska isÿ flfrk úfudapk iSud lsÍug n, lrhs' uq,a wjia:dfõ§" wod< m%;sm;a;s iy l%shdud¾. ilia lsÍfï§ foaY.=K úm¾hdi ms<snòj ie,ls,a,g .; hq;= jQ ÈhqKq fjñka mj;sk rgj,a md¾Yajh by; fldkafoaisj,ska ksoyia lrk ,§' lekal=kays § 2010 foieïn¾ udifha§ mj;ajk ,o md¾Yajlrejkaf.a /iaùul§ .kakd ,o

;SrKhlg wkqj" ishü md¾Yajhka" CO2, CH4, N2O iy fjk;a l¾udka; jdhq

fndfydauhla wvx.= jk GHG úfudapk ;u rgj, wvq lsÍu iòyd l%shd l< hq;=fõ' fuu ;SrKhg wkqj ixj¾ê; iy ixj¾Okh fjñka mj;sk rgj, md¾Yajlrejka

iafjÉPdfjkau ;u wvq lsÍï ms<snò b,lal m%ldYhg m;a lsÍug wjYHh' UNFCCCys fjí wvúhg wkqj" ±kgu;a rgj,a 45la Tjqkaf.a b,lal.; wvqlsÍï m%ldYhg m;a lr we;s w;r" Y%S ,xldj ;ju;a tfia isÿ fldg fkdue;' foaY.=K úm¾hdi iòyd Y%S ,xldjg l=uk fyda wdldrhl iyfhda.hla ,eîfï m%uqL;djhla fkd,eîug fya;=j fuh úh yelsh'

104

n,Yla;s iy Bg iïnkaO wxYj,ska msgjk CH4 iy N2O u.ska f.da,Sh WKqiqï úNjh u;

flfrk odhl;ajh 0'4]la ;rï jk wvq w.hhla .kS' tksid" CO2 idkaøKh muKla fuu

wjia:dfõ§ ie,ls,a,g f.k we;' b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k ^03& hgf;a ,nd.;a CO2 w.hhka 70 jk

rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;' iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj ^BAU&g idfmaCIj" NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a 2024 jk úg 15]l wvqùulao NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 26]l wvqùula o w;am;a lr .; yels jkq we;ehs fuys,d igyka l< hq;=h' tjeks wjulrK l%fudamdhj,g wkqyqreùu wm rgg ÿria: ixisoaêhla jkq we;' Y%S ,xldj j¾;udkfha ;u fláld,Sk fukau È.=ld,Sk ixj¾Ok b,lal imqrd .ekSfï uQ,H iqrCIs;;djh iòyd oaúmd¾Yaúl .súiqï u; fukau

cd;Hka;r uQ,H wruqo, ÎMF&" f,dal nexl=j ^WB& iy wdishdkq ixj¾Ok nexl=j ÂDB& jeks úúO uQ,H iïmdok hdka;%K u; hefma'

35 jk j.=j ( CH4 iy N2O iòyd úfudapk idOl iy GWP w.hhka137

bkaOkh úfudapk idOlh g/GJ

CH4 N2O

ãi,a 3 0.6

bkaOk f;,a 3 0.6

.,a w`.=re 1 1.5

iajNdúl jdhq 1 0.1

CO2 j,g idfmaCI GWP 21 310

70 jk rEmh ( úúO b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a ishÆu wxY iòyd m%CIsma; CO2 úfudapkh fuu Khlrejka iy wdOdrlrejka fyda mkjkq ,nk mQ¾j fldkafoaishla jkafka" udkj whs;sjdislï" ffk;sl whs;sh" iy mßirh iq/lSu jeks úúO cd;Hka;r iïuq;Ska iu. wmf.a tl`.;djh mj;ajd .ekSug n,lsÍuh' j¾;udkfha" udkj whs;sjdislï W,a,x>kh lsÍu yd iïnkaOj Y%S ,xldfõ fydò ku /l.ekSu iòyd úYd, m%hka;hla ±Íug isÿ ù ;sfí' bÈß ld,h ;=<" uQ,HdOdr ms<snò idlÉPdj,§ cd;Hka;r tl`.;djhla iys; mßir .súiqï iòyd wkq.;j l%shdlsÍu iïnkaOj o ta yd iudk wjOdkhla fhduq jkq we;' tksid" iqÿiq wjulrK l%fudamdhhla fkdue;sj úfudapk by< hEug bv ie,iSu rfÜ hym;g fya;= fkdjkq we;'

105

riÈh ms<snò ñkudgd iïuq;sh udkj l%shdldrlïj,ska udkj fi!LHh iy mßirh /l.ekSu iòyd tl`. jQ kj;u

cd;Hka;r iïuq;sh jkafka riÈh ms<snò ñkudgd iïuq;sh ^MCM& fõ138' th" riÈh iy riÈh

ixfhda. mßirhg ksl=;a lsÍu md,kh lsÍu yd iïnkaOj l%shd lrhs' th" rgj,a 91la iy EU fj;ska ,nd .;a w;aik iys;j 2013 Tlaf;daïn¾j,§ ms<s.kakd ,§' ^Y%S ,xldj tf,i w;aika

;enQ rgj,a w;r ke;&' rgj,a 50la MCMys 9'4 j.ka;shg wkqj" riÈh m%Nj iys; md¾Yajhka ;u rg iïuq;shg tl`.j l%shd lsÍu wdrïN l< od isg jir y;rla we;=<;" tys ksl=;a lsÍï md,kh lrk l%u iy tys wfmaCIs; b,lal" wruqKq iy m%;sM, iys; cd;sl ie,eiaula md¾Yajlrejkaf.a iïfï,khg Ndr §u iòyd ilia lrkq we;'

iqmqreÿb,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 3700 MWl m%udKhla jk ishü .,a w`.=re n,d.dr l%shd;aul jk úg ksl=;a ùug bv ;sfnk nerf,day m%udKh fmkakqï lrk 41 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ .,a w`.=re w`M ;=< yuqfjk fndfyduhla ner f,day w;r riÈh o wka;¾.;fõ' fuu

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8 jk rduqj ( riÈh ¥IKh u.ska we;s flreKq ñkudgd frda.h

iakdhqfõ§h iy,CIKh u.ska mSvdjg m;a <uqka iy jeäysáhka yuq jQ m%:u wjia:dj 1856§ cmdkfha" ñkudgdj,ska jd¾;d úh' YÍr p,k wysñùu" w;a iy mdoj, ysrs.;sh" m%Odk udxY fmaYsj, ÿ¾j,;djh" oDIaá fCIa;%h mgqùu" iy Y%jKhg yd l:khg ydks ùu jeks frda. ,CIK fuys§ fmkakqï flf¾' ;on, f,i frda.S jQ wjia:dj,§" Wu;=j" wxYNd.h" uq¾cdj" iy frda.,CIK u;= ù i;s lsysmhla ;=< ñhhEu isÿúh yelsh' fuu iakdhqfõ§h iy,CIKh" uq,a wjêfha§ thg fya;=j fkd±k isàu fya;= fldg f.k ñkudgd frda.h f,i y`ÿkajk ,§'

miqj lrk ,o úu¾Ykj,§ ñkudgdys uqyqÿ fndlalg wdikakfha msysá ridhksl l¾udka;Yd,djlska fu;s,a u¾lß wvx.= neyer lrk øjH uqyqÿ fndlal ;=<g ksl=;a lr ;snqKq njo tu fndlafla isá u;aiHhska wkqNj lrk ,o ck;dj fuu frda.hg f.dÿre ù we;s njo fidhd .kakd ,§' fuu frda.fhys fya;=ldrlh fulS l¾udka; Yd,dfjka msgflreKq riÈh li< nj y`ÿkd.ekSug ffjojreka yg jir ;=kla ^03la& .;jQ w;r fuu frda.fhka je<elafjk l%u ia:dms; lsÍug iy ydkshg m;a ñksiqka yg jkaÈ f.ùug wv ishjilg wêl ld,hla .;úh' fujeks isÿùï je<elaùfï kj;u

l%uh jkafka 2013 § ms<s.kq ,enQ riÈh ms<snò ñkudgd iïuq;shg ^MCMg& wkql+,j lghq;= lsÍuh'

106

107

10' iajNdúl jdhq wmkhkh lsÍfï yelshdj jdhq .fõIKh ;j ÿrg;a wu;r fCIa;% lrd jHdma; ùfï§ iy kj ksê fidhd .kakd ,o úg" ´kEu w;sßla; jdhq m%udKhla we;akï" tu w;sßla;h by< b,aüla mj;sk wdishd;sl rgj,g wmkhkh lsÍfï yelshdj Y%S ,xldj fidhd ne,sh hq;=h' flfiafj;;a" tjeks ;SrKhla .ekSug fmr" l,dmh ;=< iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,aü iy iemhqu fukau tys fj<òfmd< ms<snò mj;sk ;;ajh ie,ls,a,g .; hq;=h' 10'1 wdishdfõ iajNdúl jdhq ksIamdokh

wdishdfõ fndfyda rgj, iy bkaÈhdkq id.r j<,a, ÎOR& ;=< msysá rgj, .Dyia: lghq;=

iòyd fyda f.dvìu Tiafia k< ud¾. u.ska jdhqj f,i fyda id.r Tiafia jdyl ;=<LNG f,i fyda wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd fyda iajNdúl jdhqj ksIamdokh lrkq ,efí' tajdfha ;lafiare lrk ,o ksê iy ksIamdok YS>%;d 36 jk j.=fjys olajd we;' l,dmh ;=< iajNdúl jdhq ksIamdokhg

tla jQ kj;u rgj,a ;=k jkafka" gekaidkshdj" memqjd ksõ.sks ^PNG& iy ñhkaudrhhs'

gekaidkshdj" USD3/million Btu141 jeks jdhq ksê ñ,lg wdishd;sl rgj,a fj; LNG wmkhkh

lsÍu iòyd ie,iqï ilia lrñka mj;S'

36 jk j.=j ( wdishdfõ iy IOR rgj,iajNdúl jdhq ixÑ; iy ksIamdokh142

Rg 2012 ixÑ; ksIamdokh ixÑ;$ksIamdok wmkhk 143

Tcf Bcm Bcm/yr Jir Bcm/yr

we*a.ksia:dkh 1.750 49.55 4.94 10.0

íafÜ%,shdj 27.850 788.51 55.78 14.1 24.7

nx.,dfoaYh 6.489 183.72 20.11 9.1

nDkdhS 13.800 390.71 12.44 31.4 8.81

Ökh 107.000 3,029.45 102.74 29.5 3.21

bkaÈhdj 40.745 1,153.60 47.61 24.2

bkaÿkSishdj 141.060 3,993.77 76.24 52.4 42.33

cmdkh 0.738 20.89 4.99 4.2

fldßhdj 0.250 7.08 35.77 0.2

uef,aishdj 83.000 2,349.94 61.72 38.1 30.79

fudieïìla 4.500 126.33 3.82 33.1 3.50

ñhkaud¾ 10.000 283.13 11.91 23.8 8.29

kjiS,ka;h 0.976 27.63 4.37 6.3

mdlsia;dkh 26.620 753.68 39.14 19.3

memqjd ksõ.skshd 5.483 155.24 3.53 44.0

ms,smSkh 3.480 98.53 2.90 34.0

;dhsjdkh 0.220 6.23 10.24 0.6

gekaidkshdj 0.230 6.46 0.86 7.5

;dhs,ka;h 10.589 299.80 36.98 8.1

úhÜkduh 24.700 699.32 7.71 90.7

øùlrKh iòyd jQ msßjeh iy m%jdyk úhou tl;= lrk ,o úg wE; fmrÈ. .eKqïlrejl=yg

jehjk msßjeh USD 10'7/million Btu f,i ;lafiare lr we;' iajNdúl jdhqj ksIamdokh isÿ flfrk" l,dmh ;=< jQ rgj,a 16ka" j¾;udkfha wmkhkh lsÍu isÿ lrkafka rgj,a 7la muKS'

108

bka wmkhkh isÿ lrk m%uqL;u rg bkaÿkSishdj fõ' ñhkaudrh" 12 Bcm/year Odß;djhla

iys; k< ud¾.hla Tiafia USD 9/million Btu ñ,lg 500 Mcf/day ne.ska Ökhg iajNdúl jdhq

wmkhkh lsÍu 2013 § wdrïN l<dh' tfukau" 300 Mcf/day ne.ska USD 11/million Btu ñ,lg

;dhs,ka;hg o jdhqj wmkhkh lrhs' uqyqfoa msysá jdhq ksêj,ska iemfhk wjia:dfj ñ, USD

7'46/million Btu fõ' Ökh" 2013 isg g¾lafuksia;dkfhka USD 9'84/million Btu ñ,lg jdhqj wdkhkh lsÍu isÿ lrhs'Ökh" reishdj iu. tl`.;djhlg meñKs kj;u .súiqu wkqj"

iajNdúl jdhqj 38 Bcm/year ne.ska jir 30la iòyd ie;mqï 2500l k< ud¾.hla Tiafia

ihsîÍhdfõ isg USD 10/kcm muK ^fyda USD 9'91/million Btu& msßjehlg wdkhkh lrkq we;s nj jd¾;d ù ;sfí' tfy;a f.jk ,o ñ, m%ldY fldg fkdue;sh 144

tlafidka fudnhs,a u.ska USD ñ,shk 19la wdfhdackh fldg iajNdúl jdhqj .fõIKh lsÍfï

iy LNG wmkhkh lsÍfï myiqlï imhd we;s" bkaÈhdkq id.r rduqfõ ÎOR& rgj, LNG

wmkhkh isÿ lrk fCIa;%hg we;=,a jQ kj;u rg memqjd ksõ.skshdj fõ' LNG /.;a m<uq kej

2014 uehs udifha§ cmdkhg hk ,§' jir 30l ld,mßÉfþohla ;=< iajNdúl jdhqj LNGf,i

jirlg 6'9 Mtne.skawmkhk lsrSug iuia; ksêh9 Tcfl m%udKhlOdß;djhlska hqla; fõhehs

ie,fla'145 idudkH jYfhka ñ, Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 9'35la f,i Wml,amkh lrñka jHdmD;sfha wd¾Ól úYaf,aIKhla isÿ fldg ;sfí' 10'2 wdishdfj jdhq iemhqu iy b,aü

w;S;fha§ wdishdj ;=< È.= ld,Sk fldka;rd;a;=jla hgf;a jÜgï iys;j fndrf;,a ñ, iy jdhq ñ, iu`. iïnkaO;djhla iys;j iajNdúl jdhq fj<òdu isÿ úh' úúO rgj,a .Kkdjla úúO fr.=,dis hgf;a md,kh lrkq ,nk k< ud¾. lsysmhla iys; wdishdfõ iajNdúl jdhq fj<òfmd<" hqfrdamfha iy W;=re weußldfõ k< ud¾.fuka ifudaOdkh lr fkdue;' flfia fj;;a" wdishd;sl fj<òfmdf<ys uE;l§ hï fjkialula isÿ ù ;sfí' wdishdfõ .eKqï lrejka

tlai;a ckmofhys f;,a ñ,g jvd fykaß yí yd iïnkaO ñ,g LNG ñ,g .ekSu iòyd

.súiqï w;aika lrkq ,en we;' ta yd iudkj" S-jl% ^úl=Kqïlre b,a¨ï lrk iy .eKqïlre f.ùug yelshdj ;sfnk ñ, iSud flfrk fldka;rd;a;= ld,h& W;=re weußldj iy hqfrdamh hk fo;ekaysu ñ,g jvd by< uÜgul mj;ajd .ekSug Wmldr fjñka 2008 isg wdishdfõ fldka;rd;a;=j,ska i;HjYfhkau bj;a lrkq ,en we;'

US n,Yla;s f;dr;=re mßmd,khg ÊIA& wkqj" iajNdúl jdhqfjys f.da,Sh fj<òdu ixj¾ê;

(OECD) rgj,g jvd OECD fkdjk rgj," 71 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ jeä YS>%;djhlska j¾Okh isÿjkq we;s njg mqfrdal:kh fldg we;' j¾I 2010-2040 ld,mßÉfþoh ;=< wdishdfõ

ishü OECD- idudðl cd;Skaf.a uq`M iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh jirlg á%,shk >k wä ^Tcf&

6'7 isg 9'9 olajd by< hkq we;' flfiafj;;a" OECDys idudðlhka fkdjk" Ökh yd bkaÈhdj we;=¨ wdishd;sl cd;Skaf.a rgj, jvd;a m%n, mßfNdack j¾Okhla isÿfj;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' fuu rgj, iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh 2010-2040 olajd ld,h ;=<" 72 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï

fldg we;s mßÈ" jirlg 14 isg 16 Tcf olajd by< hkq we;s njg EIA mqfrdal:kh lrhs' fuh jirlg 3'3]l idudkH j¾Ok fõ.hla fõ'

cmdkfhys n,Yla;s wd¾Ól úoHd wdh;kfhys ÎEEJ& mqfrdal:k" wdishdfõ LNG iòyd b,aü

2013 § jirlg fgdka ñ,shk ^tpy& 180 isg 2040 jk úg 360 ñ,shk tpy olajd by< hkq we;ehs fhdackd lrhs' j¾I 2014 uq,a ld,h ;=< 2015 iy 2025 jk úg l%shd;aul ;;ajhg m;a úh yels"

65-70 Mtpy;a w;r uq`M Odß;djhkag iul jk USD LNG wmkhk jHdmD;s mylg DOE wkque;sh ,nd § ;snqKs'

109

71 jk rEmh ( OECD iy OECD - fkdjk rgj, m%laIsma; f.da,Sh jdhq fj<òdu146

72 jk rEmh ( 2040 olajd OECD - fkdjk rgj, m%laIsma; jdhq mßfNdackh147

hqfrdamfha USD 9-11$million Btu iy US fykaß yíf.a USD 4'50$million Btu hk ñ,

w.hhkag jvd fndfyda by< ñ,la jk USD 16-17$million Btul w.hhla wdishdfõ f;,a-

iïnkaê; ;eka LNG ñ,g ysñúh' USA isg wdishdjg LNG iïmdokh lsÍfï msßjeh" øùlrK

iy m%jdyk msßjeh o iys;j ;lafiare l< úg USD 06$million Btu fõ' jdhq fj<òfmd<

úYaf,aIlhl=g wkqj US jdhq j¾;udk ñ, wdishd;sl fj<òfmdf<ys by<u ;r`.ldÍ ñ,la jkq we;'148 fuu úYaf,aIKhg wkqj" íafÜ%,shdj" reishdj" tlai;a ckmoh" iy kef.kysr

wm%Sldfõ ÈhfUys kj iemhqïlrejkaf.a msysàu fya;= fldg f.k iajNdúl jdhqfjys US ñf,ys

jeäùula iy wdishdfõ LNG ñ, USD 12-13$million Btu olajd wvqùula wfmaCId l< yelsh'

f.da,Sh o;a; ms<snò ;j;a f;,a iy jdhq úYaf,aIlfhla LNG wmkhkfhys úYd, W;amd;hla íafÜ%,shdfjka n,dfmdfrd;a;= jk w;r fuu oYlh wjidkh jk úg øùlrKh lrk ,o

iajNdúl jdhqj ^LNG& wmkhkh lsÍfuys,d lgd¾ rdcHh wNsNjd f,dalfha m%uqLhd njg

íafÜ%,shdj m;a fjkq we;' fuu wmkhk" úfYaIfhka LNG we;=¨j n,Yla;sh iòyd úYd,

b,aüla mj;sk wdishd-Ydka;slr fj<òfmd<j,a fj; meñfKkq we;' wdishd;sl LNG b,aü

2010 isg 2025 jir jk ;=re 370 million tpy olajd 165]lska by< hkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾'149 cmdkfhys" úfYaIfhkau" *ql=Isud fÄojdplh fya;= fldg f.k kHIaál m%;sl%shl 48u jid ouk ,o w;r" tys m%;sM,hla f,i cmdkh w;amsg fj<ò fmdf<ys b;d by< ñ,lg" fjk;a

ia:dkj, ñ, fuka fo.=Khl ñ,lg Tjqkaf.a LNG ñ,oS .ekSï isÿ lsÍug fm<ö we;'

110

iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,a,qu iy tys w;amsg ñ, iD;=j wkqj o fjkia jkq we;' ksoiqkla

f,i" m%jD;a;s jd¾;djlg wkqj" 2013 YsYsr iD;=fõ oS cmdkfha w;amsg ñ, USD 18-19/million

Btu mr;rhl ;snqKq w;r th 2014 jika; iD;=j jk úg USD 12/million Btu olajd my; jeà

;snqKs150' uE;oS m<jQ kj;u jd¾;djlg wkqj" 2014 iema;eïnrfhaoS wE; fmrÈ.g LNG f.k

hEu iòyd jQ w;amsg ñ, USD 10'70/million Btu olajd ;jÿrg;a my; nei ;snqKs 151' frdhsg¾fh

kj;u jd¾;djlg wkqj152" flfiafj;;a" wdishdfõ NGj, w;amsg ñ, cQ,s udifhaoS olakg ,enqKq jir ;=k wvqu w.h jQ USD 10'50 isg 41]l m%;sY;hlska by< hEula iys;j iema;eïn¾

uq,oS USD 14'80/million Btu olajd <`.d fjñka tys iD;=uh by< ke.Su wdrïN fldg ;sfí' 10'3 wdishdfõ jdhq flaJøhla ixj¾Okh lsÍu

uE; iajNdúl jdhq iemhqï jeäùu ;r`.ldÍ iajNdúl jdhq fj<ò fmdf<ys ixj¾Okh iòyd

wjia:djla imhd ;sfnk w;r" Y,al jdhqfjys (shale gas) f.da,Sh ixj¾Okh f,dj mqrd ;r`.ldÍ ñ, ;;ajj, iajNdúl jdhq ñ, iy f;,a yd ne`ÿKq ñ," W;=re weußldfõ m<uqjo tlai;a rdcOdksfha fojkqjo olakg ,enqKq mßÈ iajNdúl jdhq ñ, kshu lsÍu iòyd l%u

l%ufhka u. mdohs' l,dmSh wdishd;sl fj<òdu iy LNG yd iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh by< hk ksid" fld;ekl flfia isÿfõ hehs ;ju;a meyeÈ,s ke;s" iajNdúl jdhq flaJøhla wdishdfõ i;HjYfhkau ixj¾Okh ùu fkdje<elaúh yelsh' tjeks flaJøhla ixj¾Okh lsÍug" Ökh" cmdkh" iy isx.mamQrej oekgu;a leue;a; m%ldY fldg ;sfí153'

fï w;r" LNG wdkhkh lsÍug ^È.= ld,Sk fldka;rd;a;= u;&" LNG f,i .nvd lsÍug" LNG kej; jdylj,g megùug" iy b,aü u; w;amsg fj<òfmd< wkqmd;j,g wmkhkh lsÍu

iòyd Odß;djh f.dvke.Su u.ska LNG flaJøhla f,i fiajdj iemhSfï Odß;dj isx.mamqrej

ixj¾Okh lrñka mj;S' oekgu;a" jd¾Islj 3'5 Mtpy fj<òdula iòyd ô< jYfhka&USD ì,shk 1l msßjehlg myiqlï ilia lsÍu 2013 uehs udifha isg wdrïN fldg we;154' jd¾Islj

LNG 9 Mtpyl fj<òdula yeisrùug mq`M,a lrkq ,nkakd jQ 6 Mtpyla olajd Odß;djh mq`M,a lsÍula isÿ fjñka mj;S155' È.= ld,Sk fldka;rd;a;= u; ñ, iy w;amsg fj<òfmd< ñ, w;r mq`M,a fjki i,ld ne,Sfï oS" m%;s,dNh jHdmD;sh u; isÿ lrk ,o wêl wdfhdackh myiqfjka wdjrKh lrkq we;'

wE; fmrÈ. LNG iòyd wfmaCIs; b,a¨fuys jeäùula isÿfõh hk woyia we;sj" ngysr LNG

iemhqïlrefjda .sksfldKÈ. wdishdfõ LNG .nvd lsÍfï myiqlï ia:dms; lsÍug i,ld n,ñka isá;s'156 Y%S ,xldj" cd;Hka;r kdjql ud¾. wdikakfha msysgd ;sîu ksid" Y%S ,xldjg tys

jrdhla iy LNG .nvd lsÍfï moaO;shla ia:dms; lsÍug fjk;a há;, myiqlï oCIsK Y%S

,xldfõ msysgqùu iòyd leue;a; m< l< yelsh' LNG wdkhkh lsÍu iy k< ud¾.hla u.ska bkaÈhdjg jdhqj iïmdokh lsÍu iòyd ;%sl=Kdu,fha n,Yla;s flaJøhla msysgq ùfï fhdackdjla" 2010 cQks udifhaoS r;akisß úiska uy nexl=j iy n,Yla;s wud;HdxYh we;=¨ wêldÍka fj; Ndr fok ,o kuqÿ" ta .ek i,ld ne,Sula isÿ fkdjqKs 157' Bg iu.dój"

isx.mamqrej ;u LNG flaJøh 2010 cQks udifhaoS wdrïN lrk ,oS' bkaÈhdfõ" 2012 j¾Ifha iuia; n,Yla;s mßfNdackfhka 10]la imhkq ,nkafka iajNdúl jdhqfjkss' .,a w`.=re yereKq fldg wfkla ishü n,Yla;s m%Njj, jd¾Isl j¾Okhg jvd wvq w.hhla jk 2010 isg 2040 olajd bkaÈhdfõ iajNdúl jdhq mßfNdackh 2]l idudkH jd¾Isl j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrk w;r" th" fulS ld, mßÉfþoh ;=< kHIaál Yla;sfhys jd¾Isl j¾Ok fõ.h jk 10]ka mfyka mx.=jla fõ' ;ju;a h:d¾:hka njg m;a fkdjQ" brdkh" g¾lafuksia;dkh iy ñhkaudrh hk rgj,ska iajNdúl jdhq f.k tau iòyd jir .Kkdjl isg bkaÈhdj ie,iqï ilia lrñka isák k<ud¾. ;=k ^03& f.dvke.Su ms<snò .súiqug t<eöu

111

iòyd jQ wLKav ndOl o we;=<;a iemhqï iïndOl úYd, jYfhka by; lS m%;sM,hg fya;= ù ;sfí' bkaÈhdfõ iajNdúl jdhqj fkdue;sùu ksid" 35]la muK jk n,Yla;s n,d.dr Odß;djhla Ndú;hg fkdf.k mj;sk w;r tksidu fuu n,d.drj,g wdfoaYl bkaOkhla f,i w;sYh ñ, wêl kema;d fhdod .ekSug isÿjkq we;' ie,iqï ilia lr f.dvk.df.k hk iuyr n,d.dr iajNdúl jdhq fkdue;sùu ksid .eg¨j,g uqyqK md we;'158

fm!oa.,sl m¾fhaIK lKavdhula u.ska isÿ lrk ,o zzbkaÈhdjg LNG wdkhkh lsÍfï

NjH;dZZ ms<snò wOHhkhla u.ska t<efUk jir lsysmh ;=<" zwdishdfõ cd;Hka;r LNG fj<òfmdf<ys iemhqï - b,a,qï ;=,s;;djh iòyd we;s wfmaCIdj by< hñka mj;sk w;r tysoS

wu;r LNG keõNdr iqrCIs;j ;nd .ekSu iòyd bkaÈhdjg by< ñ, f.ùu msKsi leu;sùug isÿ jkq we;' oS¾> ld,Skj" ueo fmrÈ. iy íafÜ%,shdjo we;=<;a wdishd Ydka;slr rgj,ska

bkaoshdjg LNG f.k tau iòyd m%udKj;a yelslula mj;S159' tksid" oYl .Kkdjla Tíng bkaÈhdj ;=< iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd fj<òfmd<la mj;skq we;s nj fmfkkakg ;sfí' wdishdfõ

LNG iòyd b,a,qu wkd.;fhaoS tys iemhqu wNsNjd hk njla fmfkkakg we;s fyhska Y%S ,xldj kj jdhq ksê fidhd .;fyd;a fulS kj fj<ò fmd< .%yKh lr .ekSug wjia:djla iemfhkq we;' 10'4 jdhq wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍu

NG wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd i,ld ne,Sug kï" wju jYfhka jir 20la iòyd 0'8 Mtpyne.ska

ksIamdokh l< yels 1 Tcfl fmdaIK jdhq ksê wjYHfõ' fuh" wmkhk wjYH;djh iòyd

ms<s.kq ,nk l=vdu m%udKh f,i idudkHfhka i,lkq ,efí' tfyhska 5 Mtpy ksIamdok

YS>%;djhla iòyd o< jYfhka 6 Tcfl jdhq-fCIa;% m%udKhla wjYH jkq we;' tjeks fCIa;%hla

fidhd .;fyd;a" tys wmkhkh iòyd wkq.ukh l< hq;= úl,am folla ;sfí;

bka tlla jkafka" k< ud¾.fhka bkaÈhdjg jdhqj f.k hEu" iy fojekak jkafka" LNG njg jdhqj øj njg m;alr thg by< ñ,la ,nd .ekSu iòyd w;amsg fj<òfmd<la ,nd§u fõ' Y%S ,xldfõ jhU È. fjrf<a isg bkaÈhdj olajd k< ud¾.hla bÈ lsÍu iòyd jk fláu ud¾.hg ukakdrï fndlal ;rKh lsÍug isÿjkq we;' flfiafj;;a" ;ñ,akdvq m%dka; wdKavqj u.ska fuu l,dmh iuqø cd;sl WoHdkhla f,i m%ldYhg m;a fldg we;s neúka" th Tiafia k< ud¾.hla t<Su wys;lr n,mEï we;s lrjkakla úh yelsh' th" iduqøsl ffcj úúO;aj h:do¾Yfhka f,dalfha fmdfydi;au l,dmj,ska tlla jk w;r ksß; È. wdishdfõ m%:u ffcjf.da, ixrCIs;ho fõ' fuu ffcjf.da, ixrCIs;h" mqkS, fudah" uv;Sre" fjr<" we,a.S m%cd" uqyqÿ me<Eá" fldr,amr" ,jK j.=reìï" iy lfvd,dk wh;a fjr<dikak mßirfha jkdka;rj,ska iukaú; jQ ¥m;a 21lska iukaú;fõ160' tfyhska" k< ud¾.h wNh N+ñh u`.yer f.dvìu Tiafia rfÜ W;=re ;=vqjg f.k hd hq;= jk w;r t;ekska fmdala iuqø ikaêh ;rKh fldg bkaÈhdj olajd .uka l< yels fõ'

iïm%odhl wdldrhg LNG wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd øùlrK moaO;shla f.dvke.Su iy 16ml

wju .eUqrla iys; jQ .eUqre ceáhl YS;ckl øjH LNG jdylj,g megùug wjYHfõ' Y%S

,xldfõ jhU È. fjr<g Tífnka jQ uqyqo fnfyúka fkd.eUqre ùu ksid LNG m¾hka;hla f.dvke.Sug iqÿiqu ia:dkh fuh fkdjkq we;' .eUqre keõf;dg m¾hka;hla iòyd myiqfjka bvlv i,lk neúka jhU È. fjrf<a isg ;%sl=Kdu,h fj; k< ud¾.hla t<Sug isÿ jkq we;' flfiafj;;a" kef.kysr fjr<g Tífnka th iEfyk ;rï m%udKhla jdhqj fidhd .kafka kï" ;%sl=Kdu,fha isg øùlrKh lrk ,o jdhqj wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd myiqlï iemhsh yelsh'

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rch wjYH lrk há;, myiqlï f.dvke.Su iòyd lsisÿ úhoula isÿ fkdfldg" øùlrK

moaO;shla iy m¾hka;h bÈ lsÍu fukau l<ukdlrKh isÿ lsÍu BOT jHmD;shla f,i wdfhdaclfhl= yg mejßh yelsh' .eUqre ;%sl=Kdu, jrdfha øùlrK myiqlu iòyd iqÿiq ia:dkhla 73 jk rEmh fmkakqï lrhs' ;%sl=Kdu,h-wkqrdOmqrh-fmdf<dkakrej-oUq,a, p;=IafldaKh wdjrKh lrñka f.dvke.Sug

kshñ; wkd.; fufg%dfmd,sia fhdackd wvx.=" 2030 iòyd NPP cd;sl fN!;sl ie,iqï fomd¾;fïka;=j ilia lr we;' fuu jmißh ;=< fndfyda l¾udka; bÈ lsSÍug o n,dfmdfrd;a;= fõ' tfyhska" tys n,Yla;s b,a u o imqrd .ekSu msKsi l,dmhg iajNdúl jdhqj f.k tau msKsi fuu fhdað; k< ud¾.h Wmldrhla jkq we;'

73 jk rEmh ( ;%sl=Kdu, jrdfhys øùlrK moaO;sfha fhdacs; msysgqu

jdhq ksIamdok msßjeh idudkHfhkaUSD 0.25/million Btu isg USD 1'0/million Btug jeä

w.hhla olajd fjkia úh yelsh' LNG úl,amh wd¾Ól jYfhka fhda.H ùug USD 1'0/million

Btuj,g wvq ksIamdok úhoula wjYH fõ' LNG fnodyeÍfï msßjehg øùlrK n,d.dr

msßjefhys odhl;ajh USD 1'5 isg 2'0/million Btu olajd mrdihl mj;S' øùlrK moaO;sfha

msßjeh LNG odufha msßjefhys ie,lsh hq;= fldgila fõ; tfyhska" øùlrK myiqlfuys msßjeh wvqlsÍu fuys,d jeo.;a ldrKhla fõ'

LNG jHdmD;shlg f;,a keõ moaO;sh LNG odufha uq`M msßjefhys ie,lsh hq;= fldgils' keõ ixLHdj iy tksidu" kdjql m%jdyk fiajd msßjeh øùlrK myiqlu iy fj<òfmd< w;r ÿr

m%udKh u; ròd mj;S' fnod yßk ,o LNGys msßjehg kdjql m%jdyk fiajd msßjefhys

idudkHh odhl;ajh o< jYfhka USD 0'5 isg 1'2/million Btu úh hq;=h' keõ iys; .%dyl

m¾hka;" jdIamSlrK WmlrK" iy wfkl=;a wjYH oE o< jYfhka USD 0'3 isg 0'4/million Btu

m%udKhla LNGj, úl=Kk ñ,g odhl lrhs'

j¾I 2010 muK olajd øùlrK moaO;shl msßjeh USD million 200-250/Mtpy olajd mrdihl úh161' jdhqj øùlrKh lsÍu" tajd .ukdka;h olajd f.k hEu" kej; jdhqj njg fmr,Su

hkdÈh iòyd USD 4 iy 7/million Btu w;r m%udKh msßjehla ±Íug isÿúh yels w;r" th

jdhqj muKla j¾;udkfha wefußldfõ úl=Kk USD 2'50/million Btuj,g jvd fnfyúka jeäh' øùlrK myiqlula iemhSug wêl f,i m%d.aOk wjYH fõ' rfÜ uq`M jdhq ksIamdokfhka

ld,lg jeäjk" 8'9 Mtpy Odß;djhla iòyd miq.sh iema;eïn¾ udifha§ wkqu; lrk ,o"

íafÜ%,shdfõ fpõfrdkaf.a ùÜiafgdaka LNG jHmD;sh iòyd AD ì,shk 29la ^ USD ì,shk

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30la& jehjkq we;'162 m<uq wmkhkh 2018 § isÿ lsÍug kshñ; jirlg 20 Mtla LNG ksIamdokh lsÍug øùlrK myiqlula f.dvke.Su iòyd USD ì,shk 30la wdfhdackh fldg

we;s fudieïìla rdcHh" IOR rgj,a w;r LNG iemhqïlrejka w;rg tla jQ w¨;au idudðlhskaf.ka tlls 163' fudieïìlays frdjqud fødaKsfhys" c¾ukshg" ì%;dkHhg" m%xYhg" iy

b;d,shg jir 18la iòyd jdhq iïmdokh msKsi m%udKj;a 180 TcflamuK jQ jdhq ksê yuq ù ;sfí'

10'5 LNG .nvd myiqlï iïmdokh lsÍu

mßirh ms<snò ie,ls,a, iy úfudapk wvq lsÍfï wjYH;djh u.ska m%Odk jYfhka fufyhjk

,o kdjql m%jdyk l¾udka;fhys kj;u m%jK;djh jkafka LNG u.ska keõ l%shd lrùuhs' tys

j¾Okhg tÈßj tk tl ndOdjla jkafka LNG bkaOk /ialsÍfï nkalr myiqlï iys;

jrdhkaf.a ys`.hhs' fjda¾Üis,dg wkqj" zzcd;Hka;r iuqødikak ixúOdkh ÎMO& jeks cd;Hka;r kdjql .ukd .uk wêldÍka u.ska mkjd ;sfnk fr.=,disj,g wkqj ishü cd;Hka;r keõ

NOxyd SOx wvx.= úfudapk wvq lsÍug iy tfyhska ,dNodhS f.kaoï wêl bkaOk f;,a kdjql m%jdyk fiajh iòyd fhdod .ekSu mshjfrka mshjr bj;a lsÍu u.ska kj;d,Su iy ñ, wêl

0'5]s ãi,a f;,a ia:dms; lsÍu fyda tfia fkdue;s kï ñ, wêl úfudapk md,k WmlrK iú lÍu isÿlsÍu fyda wjYHfõ'

fjk;a tlu YLH úl,amh jkafka kdjql m%jdyk fiajd l%shdjg kexùu iòyd LNG Ndú;

lsÍu fõ' bkaOka iemhqï há;, myiqlï jeä ÈhqKq lrkf;la wfmaCIdfjka isák w;r LNG .nvd lsÍfï nkal¾ iemhSfï yiqrejkakkaf.a m%.;sfhys iSud ùï ksid b,a¨fuys wvqùula

f.k yer olajk w;r fuu wjysr ùug úi`ÿula f,i W;=re hqfrdamh mqrd LNGnkal¾.nvd lsÍfï ia:dk f.dvk.ñka mj;S'164 tfia jQjo" f,dhsâf.a kdudj,s jd¾;djg wkqj" 2020 jk úg

nkal¾ bkaOk fj<òfmd< iemhqfuka 13]la iy 2025 jk úg 24] la LNG u.ska isÿjkq we;ehs f,dalfha jrdhka wfmaCIdfjka isà'165

uE; §" LNG iòyd wêl b,aüla ;sfnk wE; fmrÈ. rgj,g w;amsg fj<òfmd< fj; LNG

iemhSfï woyi we;sj LNG .nvd lsÍfï myiqlï iy LNG jdyl kex.=rï ,Eu iòyd fcá" isx.mamQrej ixj¾Okh lrñka isà' fk!ld nkal¾ lsÍu iòyd wdl¾IKh lr .ekSu Wfoid" f,dhsâf.a kdudj,sh iu. isx.mamqre jrdh nkal¾ lsÍfï ;dCIKsl iïu; iy l%ufõo iïmQ¾K fldg ;sfí'166

LNG .nvd lsÍfï nkal¾ myiqlï iemhSu iòyd LNG gexls bÈlr we;s iy .nvdlr we;s

gexlsj, isg keõ fj; LNG f.k hEug myiq jk mßÈ ceáh wi,ska LNG j,ska l%shd flfrk keõj,g kex.=rï ,Eu iòyd myiqlï iemhSug wjYHfõ' wNHka;r Ndú;h iòyd ie,iqï ilia lrkjdg jvd keõj,g myiqlï ie,iSug wu;r .nvdlsÍfï gexls iE§ug isÿjkq we;' Y%S ,xldfõ ol=Kq fjr< wi,ska m%Odk cd;Hka;r keõ .ukd.uk ud¾.h msysgd

we;s neúka" LNGj,ska l%shd flfrk keõj,g nkal¾ myiqlï ie,iSu iòyd yïnkaf;dg fhdod .; yelsh'

nkal¾j, .nvd lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk LNG iemhSu iòyd úl,am folla ;sfí' bka tlla

jkafka foaYShj ,nd .;a jdhq fhdod.ekSu jk w;r fojekak wdkhkh lrk ,o LNG fhdod .ekSuhs' iajNdjfhkau" mßudKh" foaYSh ksIamdok wkqmd;" iy cd;Hka;r w;amsg iy È.=-

ld,Sk fj<òfmdf<ys LNG ñ, ieliSfï m%jK;d hkdÈfhys wd¾Ólhka fuys§ iqÿiqu úl,am ;SrKh lrkq we;' foaYSh m%Njj,ska m%udKj;a iemhqï ,nd .; yels jQ úg" flrj,msáfha isg

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uOHu .nvd m¾hka;h ^CST& bÈlsÍug n,dfmdfrd;a;= jk yïnkaf;dgg jdhqj f.k hEu wjYH fõ' flrj,msáfha isg yïnkaf;dg olajd wêfõ.S ud¾.hla ;sîu fya;+ fldg f.k È.=ld,Skj jvd iqÿiqu úl,amhla f,i k< ud¾.hla ie,lsh yels kuqÿ iqÿiq fj<òfmd<la iy wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh flfrk f;la wka;¾ l%ufõohla f,i yïnkaf;dgg jdhq m%jdykh

lsÍu iòyd kùk;u ilia lrk ,o LNG lkafÜkr Ndú; l< yelsh' fï iòyd" fmr§ idlÉPd lr we;s mßÈ ;r`.ldÍ ñ,lg j¾;udkfha mj;sk øùlrK moaO;shla flrj<msáfha bÈ lsÍug wjYH fõ' YLH;dj ;yjqre lsÍfuka miq k< ud¾.h t<k f;la flrj<máfha isg

yïnkaf;dg olajd m<uqj lkafÜkr u.ska LNG m%jdykh l< yel'k< ud¾.h t<Sfuka miq

fjk;a m%foaYj,g LNG m%jdykh lsÍug fuu lghq;a; iòyd ,nd .kakd ,o lkafÜkr iuQyh fhdod .; yelsh'

isx.mamqre jrdh 2012 § 42"700 ktl fj<òdula jd¾;d lr ;sfnk w;r thska" 33"685 ktla Wÿka

f;,a iòyd úh' wfkla w;g" Y%S ,xldfõ nkal¾ lsÍfï mßudj 2012 § Wÿkaf;,a iòyd 217 ktla

muK iy uqyqÿ jdhq f;,a iòyd 54 kt úh' isx.mamQrefjka fk!ldjkag iemfhk m%udKh fuka

fuh b;d w,amh tksid" 2023ka wdrïN fldg" iïmQ¾K b,a fuka 10]la fyda 27 kt m%udKhla

LNG u.ska iemhsh yels jkq we;' jrdh m%foaYh ;=< wjYH flfrk .nvd lsÍfï iy LNG

megùfï myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍug isÿjkq we;' LNG iòyd iemhqu iy b,aü u; mokï ù jd¾Islj 10]lska fuu m%udKh mq`M,a lsÍu isÿ l< yelsh' yïnkaf;dg nkal¾ ieliSfï

myiqlïj, id¾:l;ajh" ;r`.ldÍ ñ,lg LNG ;sîu muKla fkdj fiajdjka ,nd .ekSu iòyd meñfKk keõ iòyd jrdfhka iemfhk wfkla myiqlïj, ld¾hlaIu;dj ròd mj;skq we;'

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11' iajNdúl jdhq iòydúl,am m%Nj

wfursldj" Ökh" iy bkaÈhdj jeks fndfyda rgj,a ;u iajNdúl jdhq iïm;a ;snqK o wd¾Ól"

iemhqï úúO;aj" ksIamdok wvq mdvq imqrd.ekSu hkd§ úúO fya;= iòyd LNG wdldrhg iajNdúl jdhqj wdkhkh lsÍfuys ksr;fõ' foaYSh m%Njj, mqfrdal:kh l< yels wkd.; ld, iSudjlg m%udKj;a iemhqula iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj ;sfnk úgl§ rcfha m%;sm;a;s iy fj<òfmdf<a n,fõ." wdkhkh iòyd bvm%ia;d imhhs kï" iajNdúl jdhqj wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd we;s wjia:djka i,ld ne,Su iqÿiq fõ'

11'1 LNG wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd fmr§ .;a m%h;akhka

fndfyda md¾Yj ^Wod( tkafrdka" fI,a& úiska b,a,Sulska f;drj rchg LNG wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd jHdmD;s fhdackd lsysmhla bÈßm;a l< o tajd ms<snò t;rï ie,ls,a,la fkdoelaúk'

LNG wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd fvd,¾ ñ,shk ish .Kkl msßjehlska hq;a úfYaI m¾hka; bÈ

lsÍug wjYH jk w;r tjeks m¾hka; YLHjkafka 1000 MWl Odrs;dfjka hq;a n,d.drhla

l%shd lrùu iòyd m%udKj;a wju jYfhka 1 Mtpyl jdhq iïmdokhla ,nd §fï yelshdjla we;akï muKs' w;S;fha § wm rfÜ tjeks b,aüla fkd;snqKq neúka fuu jHdmD;s fhdackdj,g úÿ,sn, n,OdrSkaf.ka iyfhda.h fkd,enqKs' jdhq Ndú;d lsÍu tla úl,amhla f,i ,nd foñka

3x300 MW Odß;djhlska hq;a n,d.dr bÈ lsÍu iòyd rch 2002 j¾Ifha w. Nd.fha§ mqj;am;a

±kaùï u.ska wNs,dYh m%ldYlsÍï ÊOI& leòùh' miqj th wj,x.= lrk ,o w;r" .,a w`.=rej,ska l%shd lrk n,d.drhla iòyd muKla kj fhdackdj,s leòjk ,§' flfiafj;;a" wfmalaIs; wdfhdaclhska yg wod< ia:dk fj; hEu iy jHdmD;s fhdackd ilia lsÍu iòyd w;s

úYd, úhoula ±Íug isÿjqkoEOI leòùug miq úmrula f,i .,a w`.=re n,d.drhla ms<snò lghq;a; mjd l%shdjg kexùu isÿ fkdlrk ,§' rch 2006 j¾Ifha§ leìkÜ uKav, ;SrKhla u;" fjr< woaor .eUqre uqyqo iys; ia:dk lsysmh

w;ßka tlla jk ñßiafia LNG m¾hka;hla iy 300 MW iajNdúl jdhq n,d.drhla iE§u msKsi brdk rch úiska isÿ lrk ,o m%Odkh ms<s.ekSug ;SrKh l<dh167' wud;HdxY uÜgñka úfYaI idlÉPd meje;aùu mjd isÿ ù ;snqK o" brdkh u; tlai;a cd;Ska úiska wd¾Ól iïndOl mekùu fya;= fldg f.k fulS jHmD;sh l%shdjg kexùug fkdyels úh' reishdjg miqj fojk

úYd,;u iajNdúl jdhq ksêh brdkh i;=j ;snqK o USA u.ska fufyhjkq ,nk UN úiska iïndOl mekùu lrK fldg f.k jdhqj øùlrKh lsÍfï ;dCIKh ,nd .ekSu iy wfkla rgj,g wmkhkh lsÍug brdkhg yelshdjla fkd,enqKs' jvd;a uE;l§" n,Yla;sh iy fjk;a

fhdod .ekSï iòyd LNG wdkhkh lsÍug yïnkaf;dg jrdh fhdod .ekSu Wfoid" wfmaCId ;eìh yels wdfhdaclhska úiska jHdmD;s fhdackd Ndr § ;snqK o ta ms<snòj iaÓr lemùula fmkakqï fkdflßks'

11'2 LNG wdkhkh iòyd m¾hka;

idudkHfhka" id.r Tiafia LNG m%jdykh lsÍu ta iòydu ieliQ fk!ld fhdod .ekSu u.ska isÿ lrhs ^3 jk rEmh n,kak&' kej; jdhq njg m;alr mdßfNda.slhska fj; fnod yßkq ,nk

fjrf<ys bÈ lrk ,o .nvd lsÍfï gexls fj;g LNG nEu iòyd LNG jdylj,g kex.=rï

,Eu msKsi .eUqre uqyqo ^wju jYfhka 16ml .eUqrla& iys; úfYaI ceá wjYH fõ' tjeks LNG f.dvnEu jdylh iy ceáh u;jQ .nvd lsÍfï gexlsh iïnkaO lrk oDV k< ud¾.hla

îïmQ¾Kfhkau ikaêlrk ,o& Tiafia isÿ jkafkah; tksid" jdylh ceáh wi,skau kex.=rï

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,Eu isÿ l< hqq;=h' m¾hka; f.dvke.Sfï§" .eUqre lsÍu" YS;ckl .nvd lsÍfï gexls bÈ lsÍu" kej;-jdhqj njg m;a lsÍfï myiqlï" iy jdhq .nvd lsÍfï gexls wka;¾.; jk w;r fulS

ish,a, úhoï wêl lghq;= f,i ye`Èkaúh yelsh' Iekaydhsj, 3'0 Mtpy muK Odß;djhla

iys;j ie,iqï lrk ,o m¾hka;hla iòyd ;lafiare lrk ,o msßjeh USD ñ,shk 300la muK úh168' flfia fj;;a" jdhq fkdue;s úg úl,amh jk .,a w`.=re n,d.drhla fjkqjg

iajNdúl jdhqfjka oykh flfrk CCGT n,Yla;s n,d.drhla bÈlsÍu u.ska Wmhd.;a b;sßh u.ska m¾hka;h iòyd jeh jQ msßjeh mshjd .; yels jk neúka" fuh wu;r msßjehla fkdjkq we;'

úÿ,sn,h W;amdokfha§ iulrk ,o msßjeh fmkakqï flfrk 28 jk j.=jg wkqj" 300 MWl

.,a w`.=re n,d.drhla iòyd USD ñ,shk 500l muK msßjehla oeÍug isÿjk w;r" .,a w`.=re

n,d.drhla iòyd USD ñ,shk 247l fjkila iys;h" iudk Odß;djhlska hq;a NG oyk

CCGT n,d.drhla iòyd jeh jkafka USD ñ,shk 250la muKs' n,d.drh tys Odß;djh 900

MWla iòyd ie,iqï lrkafka kï" n,d.dr m%d.aOk b;sßh USD 741la jk w;r th" uOHu

m%udKfha LNG m¾hka;hla iy wfkl=;a wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï f.dvke.Su iòyd wjYH ;rug;a jvd m%udKj;a jkq we;'

11'3 LNG m¾hka; boslsrSu iòyd ia:dk

LNG wdkhkh lsÍu msKsi m¾hka; msysgqùu iòyd iqÿiq ia:dk folla Y%S ,xldfõ ;sfí' ;%sl=Kdu,fha iajNdúl .eUqre jrdh iy w¨;ska bÈ lrk ,o yïnkaf;dg wNHka;r f.dvìï

jrdh ^74 jk rEmh& fulS ia:dk fol fõ' ;%sl=Kdu, jrdfha ceáh wdikakhg LNG jdyl

f.k tau msKsi hï há;, myiqlï ixj¾Okh lsÍula isÿ l< hq;= jk w;r" LNG jdyl kex.=rï ,Eu iòyd .eUqre ceá iys;j tjeks myiqlï fï jk úg;a yïnkaf;dg jrdfha ilid

;sfí' fuys" 10'4 fldgfiys idlÉPd lr we;s mßÈ" rch NG wmkhkh lrkafka kï"

wmkhkh lsÍu iòyd øùlrKh lrk ,o NG iòyd wjYH flfrk myiqlï f.dvke.Su isÿ l< hq;=h'

74 jk rEmh ( yïnkaf;dg jrdfha o¾Ykh jdylfha isg gexlsh olajd úysfok iïnkaOlhl wdldrhg fhdod.;a mßjrKh lrk ,o k<

ud¾.hla Tiafia LNG udre lsÍug yelshdj imhk ceáh fj; YS;ckl LNG .nvd lsÍfï gexlshla bÈ lsÍug wjYHfõ' md,kh lrk ,o ;dm yqjudre moaO;shla hgf;a jdhqf.da,Sh

WIaK;ajhg f.k tau Tiafia øjh jdhqj njg m;a flfrk jdhq njg fm/<Sfï tallhla LNG

117

.nvdlsÍfï gexlsh wi,u bÈlsÍug wjYHfõ' w;rueÈ yqjudrefõ§ jdhq ròjd .ekSu iòyd jdhq .nvd lsÍfï gexls wjYH fjkq we;'

jdhq njg mßj¾;kh lrk ,o LNG Ndú;d lsÍu iòyd jvd;au ,dNodhS ud¾.h jkafka m¾hka;hg wdikakj iEfyk ;rfï m%udKj,ska iajNdúl jdhqj mßfNdackh lsÍug bv iys;

myiqlï f.dvke.Suh' tjeks myiqlï w;r" jdhq-oyk ixhqla; pl% jdhq g¾nhsk ^CCGT& n,d.drhla" fmdfydr ^hqßhd& ksIamdokd.drhla" iy fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj

wjYH úh yels fjk;a ridhksl l¾udka; wvx.= jkq we;' CCGT n,d.drh" LNG kej; jdhq njg fmr<kq ,nk tallh wdikakfha bÈ lsÍfuka" n,d.drhg weo.kakd jd;h;dm yqjudre tallh Tiafia heùu u.ska mQ¾j-YS;kh lsÍulg ,la lr .ekSug yels fõ' fuu.ska n,d.drfha ld¾hHlaIu;dj by< kexúh yelsh'

118

12' m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a iy l%shdldÍ ie,eiau

12.1m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a iajNdúl jdhq-mdol l¾udka;hla ixj¾Okh lsÍug yels jk wdldrhg m%;sm;a;suh mshjrj,a lsysmhla rch u.ska .; hq;= fõ' thg wod< m%Odk ldrKd w;ßka my; iòyka oE ms<snòj i,ld ne,sh hq;=h'

ydksodhl úNjhla iys; øjHhla jk iajNdúl jdhqj rgg iemhSu" by< mSvkhla hgf;a iïmSvkhg Ndckh lr fyda b;d wvq WIaK;ajhla hgf;a øj ;;ajfha fyda úYd, t<suyka gexls ;=< .nvd lsÍu iy rgmqrd cx.u lkafÜkr u.ska tajd m%jdykh lsÍu iòyd ±ä fr.=,dis yd wëCIKh wjYH ùu'

m%jdyk bkaOkhla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú;d lsÍu r: jdyk .ukd.uk mk;g we;=<;a lsÍug wjYH jk w;r uyd ud¾. fomi ia:dms; lrk ,o bkaOk msrùïy,a u.ska th fnod yeÍu hdukh lsÍu iòyd iqÿiq fr.=,dis f.k tau isÿ lsrSu'

fuu bkaOkj,ska Odjkh flfrk r:jdyk iòyd bkaOk msrùïy,a ia:dms; lrk úg

CNG/LNGj,ska l%shd flfrk r: jdyk iòyd nÿ wkqn,hla iy ;Sre nÿ iyk imhñka wfkl=;a r:jdyk wdkhkh lsÍu iSud lsÍug ;SrKhla .ekSu'

iEu kd.ßl m%foaYhlu msysá mdrsfNda.sluOHia:dkhla wdY%S;j jdhqj fnod yeÍug

ia:dms; lrk ,o k< ud¾. cd,hla iy LNG lkafÜkr u.ska Bg jdhqj iy tjeks myiqlï imhk md¾Yajlrejka iòyd wjirm;a m%odkh lsÍu"hdukh lsÍu iy wëCIKh lsÍu iqÿiq wêldßhla u.ska isÿ l< hq;=h' fnod yeÍfï cd,h l<ukdlrKh lsÍug odhl jk iEu mqoa.,hl=u ukd f,i mqyqKq lsrSu'

k< ud¾.fhka fyda lkafÜkr ud¾.fhka fyda NG fnodyeÍfï kshef,k iEu mqoa.,fhla iòydu ukd mqyqKqjla ,nd §u iy jdhqfjys we;s ydkslr iajNdjh ms<snòj ±kqj;aNdjhla ,nd §u isÿ l< hq;=h' ;uka fiajh imhk m%foaYh ;=< .sks ksùu iòyd jk iEu wêldßhla fj; ±kqï §u isÿ lsÍu'

uqyqfoys k< ud¾. t,Su" th fjr< fj; f.k tau" iy wk;=rej .nvd lsÍfï ia:dk fj; f.k hEu iòyd my; ±lafjk wdh;kj,ska wkque;sh iy wëCIKh ,nd .ekSu'

o iuqø mßir ¥IK wêldßh ^MEPA&

o uOHu mßir wêldßh ^CEA&

o fjr< ixrCIK iy ixj¾Ok wêldßh ^CCDA& o wod< m<d;a iNdfõ mßir wêldßhka o wod< m%dfoaYSh f,alï ld¾hd,j, m%dfoaYSh f,alïjre

by; fufyhqï lghq;= ms<snò mßir n,mEu ;lafiare lsÍfï ÊIA& wOHhkhla isÿ lr th uyck;djfha woyia ,nd .ekSu iòyd bÈßm;a lsÍfuka wk;=rej wod< jHdmD;s wkqu; lrkq ,nk wêldßfhka wkque;sh ,nd .ekSu'

119

iajNdúl jdhq Ndú;h m%p,s;h läkï lsÍu msKsi foaYSh k< ud¾. cd," iajNdúl

jdhqj,ska l%shdflfrk r: jdyk iòyd bkaOk fiajd ,nd §fï CNG/LNG fnod yeÍfï tall iy fjk;a fhdod .ekSï bÈ lrk wdfhdaclhska fj; ;Srenÿ iyk iy nÿ m%;sodk hkdldrhg wkqn, ,nd§u ms<snòj uqo,a wud;HdxYhg ;SrKhla .ekSu'

l¾udka;h tys jeãf.k tk ld,h ;=< ixj¾Okh flfrk wdldrhg k< ud¾.fhka NG

f.k hEu fukau CNG/LNG fj<òdu u; nÿ iy whnÿ mekùu ms<snò uqo,a wud;HdxYhg ;SrKhla .ekSu'

tjeks nÿ iy wh nÿ u.ska tl;= flfrk wdodhfuka fldgila iajNdúl jdhqj wdkhkh

flfrk iy fnodyßkq ,nk wêldßfhys m¾fhaIK iy ixj¾Ok ^R&D& tallhla ia:dms; fldg l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd fjka fldg ;nd .ekSu'

n,Yla;s W;amdokfha§" m%jdykfha§ iy .Dyia: wdydr msiSu yd ;dmkh lsÍu iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj fj; udre ùfuys we;s m%;s,dN iy jdis ms<snòj uyckhd ±kqj;a lsÍu fukau ths wka;¾.; jk wjodku iy ta iòyd .; hq;= wdrCIl l%shdud¾. ms<snòj o wod< wêldßh u.ska ±ä f,i ixúOdkh jQ ±kqj;a lsÍfï jevigyka l%shd;aul lsÍu'

12'2 l%shdldÍ ie,eiau

iajNdúl jdhq mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§fï jevigyk ia:dms; lsÍug wod< l%shdldÍ ie,eiau 37 jk j.=fjys olajd we;'

37 jk j.=j ( Y%S ,xldj ;=<NG y`ÿkajd§u iòyd jk fhdað; l%shdldÍ ie,eiau

b,lalh jev wxl

jev fldgfiys úia;rh l%shd;aul lrkakd

2014 fkdje'

1 ishü wxY iòyd kj n,Yla;s m%Njhla f,i iy l¾udkaj,g fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd§u" k< ud¾.hka iy lkafÜkr g%la r: u.ska tajd fnod yeÍu iòyd wud;H uKav, wkque;sh ,nd .ekSu'

PRDS" ckdêm;s f,alï ld¾hd,h

2015 ud¾;=

2 uqyqo hg k< ud¾.hla iy l,amsáfha isg flrj<msáh olajd N+ñ k< ud¾.hla t<Su iy fhdað; há;, myiqlï f.dvke.Su iòyd wjYH flfrk N+ñh w;am;a lr .ekSu iòyd wod< n,OdÍkaf.a wkque;sh ,nd .ekSu'

MEPA,

M/F &AR,

CEA & NWPC

2015 cQks

3

4

my; iòyka oE f.dvke.Su iòyd iúia;rd;aul YlH;d wOHhkhla isÿ lsÍu'

flrj<msáh w¾Ooaùmfhys f.dvìug fiakaÿ jk ia:dkfhys msßmyÿ lsÍfï iy ixj¾Okh lsÍfï n,d.drhla ia:dmkh lsÍu iòyd fhdað; .%dyl m¾hka;h

fndfyda úg ÿïßh ud¾.hg fjka lrk

PRDS

120

,o N+ñh Tiafia .%dyl m¾hka;fha isg flrj<msáfha msysá uOHu .nvd

m¾hka;h ^CST& olajd fhdað; k< ud¾.h

2015 foieïn¾ 5 EIA wOHhkhla isÿ lsÍu iy th" uyck woyia ,nd .ekSfuka wk;=rej jHmD;sh wkqu; lrk wêldßh fj; Ndr §u'

PRDS

CEA

2016 cQks 6 ie,iqï lsÍfï lghq;= ksu lsÍu iy PCP,

CST iy CST isg le,Ks;siai n,Yla;s n,d.drh msysá ia:dkh u; k< ud¾. t<Su msKsi N+ñh w;am;alr .ekSu'

PRDS

2016 foieïn¾ 7 8

ms<s.;a fldka;rd;alrejkaf.ka ;r`.ldÍ ñ, .Kka leòùfuka wk;=rej isú,a bxðfkare lghq;= isÿ lsÍu iy

msßisÿ lsÍfï iy iïmSvkh lsÍfï WmlrK" ldkaÿj wëCIKh lsÍfï iy wk;=re we`.ùfï moaO;s fukau .sks ksùfï WmlrK o we;=<;a wdrCIl WmlrK

wka;¾.; PCP iy CST iòyd WmlrK ñ,§ .ekSu'

PRDS

2017 foieïn¾ 9 PCP, CST iy k<ud¾. f.dvke.Su iïmQ¾K lsÍu

PRDS

2018 cQks 10 PCP, CST ;=< wjYH flfrk n,d.dr iy hkaf;%damlrK ia:dms; lsÍu" WmlrK iy k< ud¾.h mÍCId lsÍfï isÿ lsÍu iy ld¾h idOkh we.hSu yd n,h,;a ksfhdað; wdh;khlska iy;slhla ,nd .ekSu'

PRDS

2018 Tlaf;daïn¾

11 jdhq Ndú;fha m%;s,dN iy tys wdrCIl wx. ms<snòj uyck;dj ±kqj;a lsÍfï jevigykla l%shd;aul lsÍu'

PRDS

2018 Tlaf;daïn¾

12 PCP fj; jdhqj iemhSu iy jHdmD;sfhys iudrïNh

PRDS

121

12'3 ie,iqu l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd ld, rduqj

l%shdldÍ ie,eiau l%shdjg kexùfï§ my; iòyka ld, rduqjg wkqj lghq;= lsÍu isÿ l< hq;=fõ' fhdað; ld, rduqj 75 jk rEmfhys ±lafõ' fuys w¾:h jkafka" 2018 - ueo jk úg ksê wdY%s;j jdhqj ,eî ;sfí kï" wjYH flfrk ksrjq,a lr .ekSï" wkque;sh" ie,iqï iy k< ud¾. fukau .nvd lsÍfï myiqlï bÈ lsÍu iòyd fldka;%d;a;= Ndr §u" iy 2018 j¾Ifha fojk w¾Oh ;=< jdhqj ,nd .ekSu iòyd tajd f.dvke.Su läkñka wdrïN l< hq;= njhs' fuu

jev fldgia iòyd myiqlï ie,iSu PRDS fj; mejÍ we;' jev wxl 37 jeks j.=fj oela jQ mrsos fõ'

jev wxl

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

75 jk rEmh ( l%shdldÍ ie,eiau l%shdjg kexùu iòyd fhdað; ld, rduqj

122

13' ks.uk iy ks¾foaY

13'1 m%Odk fidhd .ekSï

j¾I 2014 § 222 PJj,g iul jk m%udKhla j¾;udkfha Ndú; flfrk fmdis, bkaOk iòyd wdfoaY lsÍfï yelshdjla iajNdúl jdhqj i;=j we; ^13 jk j.=j&' Lksc bkaOk iòyd we;s

b,aü" 2020 § 393 PJ" 2030 § 700 PJ" iy 2040 § 1"200 PJ olajd by< hkq we;ehs wfmaCId

flf¾' flfiafj;;a" jHdmD;sh wdrïNfha§ 70 Mcf/d muK jk wdldrhlg NG ksIamdofha iSud lsÍï fya;= fldg f.k iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u wjê lsysmhlg isÿ l<

hq;=j we;' m%Yia; l%shdldß;ajh iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj 93 Mcf/dla wjYH jkakd jQ ±kg mj;sk

CCGT n,Yla;s n,d.dr ;=k ^03& iajNdúl jdhqj u.ska l%shdlrùu" 2018 § weröug kshñ; jdKsc ksIamdokhka iu. l< hq;= hehs fhdackd flf¾' n,Yla;s wxYfhka 2018 § wdrïN lrk ,ÿj" 2023§ m%jdyk iy l¾udka; wxY o 2026 § .Dyia: yd jdKsc wxY o iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u tys iq,n;djhg .e,fmk mßÈ ilia flfrkq we;' hQßhd fukau"

wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ÂMS&" vhs-ó;hs,a B;¾ ^DME)" fu;fkda,a iy t;fkda,a jeks fjk;a iajNdúl jdhqj-mdol ksIamdok iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú;d fldg ksmoùu 2025 § wdrïN flfrkq we;' fulS iEu wxYhlu iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd mj;sk b,aü 31 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s w;r fjk fjku my; úia;r fldg we;' iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd oSu b,a¨ï wjia:d fol hgf;a" m<uqj n,Yla;s

wxYfhys" idïmQ¾ n,Yla;s n,d.drh f.dvke.Sfuka miqj ^NG1& tlla o wfkl ^ NG2&g miqj

o isÿ lsÍug kshñ;h' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,aü" 2018 §

93 Mcf/d o" 2025 § 316 Mcf/d o" 2030 § 501 Mcf/d o iy 2040 § 846 Mcf/d o jkq we;' NG2

b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" óg wkqrEmS w.hhka ms<sfj<ska 122" 419" 604" iy 949 Mcf/d jkq we;'

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd m%udKj;a iemhqula foaYShj ,nd .; yels fkdfõ

kï" LNG lkafÜkr ;=< m%jdykh lsÍfï kj ;dCIKh Ndú; lsÍu u.ska" 11 jk

mßÉfþofhys úia;r fldg we;s wdldrhg läkï ud¾.hla mokï fldg f.k LNG wdkhkh lsÍu isÿ l< yels jkq we;'

CNG iy LNG hk foj.u tlS bkaOkj,ska l%shd;aul flfrk jdyk iòyd iïmdokh lsÍu

msKsi wjYH flfrk myiqlï iemhSu u.ska iajNdúl jdhq ksIamdokh 210 Mcf/d olajd by< kexùug wfmaCId lrk úg" 2023 j¾Ih ;=< m%jdyk wxYh iòyd iajNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd§ug

fhdackd flf¾' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a b,aü" 2023" 2030 iy 2040 j¾Ij,§ ms<sfj<ska"

10" 125 iy 530 Mcf/d jkq we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" wkqrEmS b,aü ms<sfj<ska 20" 249

iy 1059 Mcf/d jkq we;' fuu bkaOk iemhSu iòyd há;, myiqlï imhk ,o úg" ñ,§ .ekSu iòyd hï Èßu;a lsÍï imhñka" fuu jdyk muKla wdkhkh lsÍu isÿ flfrkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' È.= ÿr ud¾. Tiafia Odjkh flfrk iqfLdamfNda.S nia r: iy nr jdyk"

LNGj,ska Odjkh flfrkq we;ehs wfmaCId flfrk w;r kj ieye,a¨ jdyk CNGj,ska

Odjkh lsÍu Èßu;a lrkq we;' ±kg mj;sk jdyk CNGj,ska Odjkh flfrk ;;ajhg m;a lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk Wmdx. wdkhkh lsÍu iòyd nÿ iyk o iu. myiqlï iemhSu isÿ lrkq we;' jdyk iòyd iajNdúl jdhq fnod yeÍfï fj<òie,a l%shdlrKh mqoa.,sl wxYfhys n,h,;a l%shdlrejka úiska ndr.kq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' l¾udka; iy .Dyia: wxY iòyd b,aü" m%jdyk iy n,Yla;s wxY iòyd we;s b,aüg jvd

fnfyúka wvqh' tfia jQjo" LNG f;d. lkafÜkr u.ska fiajh imhkq ,nk foaYSh k< ud¾.

123

cd, Tiafia iajNdúl jdhqj iemhSu msKsi myiqlï iïmdokh flfrkq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï

wjia:dj hgf;a HH&C wxYfhys iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd we;s b,aü 2026" 2030 iy 2040

j¾Ij,§ ms<sfj,ska 2" 15 iy 89 Mcf/d jkq we;ehs ;lafiare fldg ;sfí' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj

hgf;a § Bg wkqrEmS w.hhka ms<sfj,ska 4" 23" iy 134 Mcf/d jkq we;' ;dmc fhdod .ekSï

iòyd 2023 j¾Ifhka wdrïN fldg NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a 2023" 2030 iy 2040 j¾Ij,§

ms<sfj,ska 1" 9 iy 26 Mcf/d mßfNdackhla iys;j bkaOk f;,a iy LPG Ndú;h md¾Yaúlj wdfoaYkh lrñka iajNdúl jdhqj l¾udka; wxYh iòyd mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u iòyd

ie,iqï fldg we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a wkqrEmS w.hka ms<sfj,ska 2" 18 iy 36 fõ' n,Yla;s fkdjk fhdod .ekSïj,§" 5'6 fldgfiys úia;r lr we;s mßÈ hQßhd iy iajNdúl jdhqj mokï fldg .;a fjk;a fndfyda ksIamdok ksmoùfï§ fmdaIK f;d.hla f,i iajNdúl

jdhqj m%fhdackhg .kq we;' hQßhd hkq wm rfÜ by< b,aüla iys; fmdfydr j¾.hls' NG1

b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" 2025 § hQßhd 1 Mtl jd¾Isl ksIamdokhla uQ,sl jYfhka wdrïN lr"

wk;=rej 2030 § 1'25 Mtlao 2035 § 1'5 Mtlao jYfhka tys ksIamdokh by< kexùug fhdackd

fldg we;' ;j;a fmdfydr j¾.hla jQ wefudakshï i,af*aÜ ÂMS& ksIamdokh lsÍu 100 ktl Odß;djhla iys;j j¾I 2025 isg l%shd;aul lsÍug kshñ; w;r tu ksIamdok 2030 j¾Ifha§ 125

ktla iy 2035 j¾Ifha§ 150 ktla olajd by< kxjkq we;' fuhg wu;rj" DME ksIamdokh lsÍu" ta yd iudk ksIamdok YS>%;djhlska isÿ flfrkq we;' fuu l¾udka; ;=k ^03& iòyd 2025" 2030

iy 2035 hk j¾Ij,§ iajNdúl jdhqj ms<sfj,ska 81" 101" iy 121la Mcf/d wjYH jkq we;'

NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a" wdrïNfha§ fu;fkda,a iòyd 1'0 Mtla o t;fkda,a iòyd 100 ktla o jk jd¾Isl Odß;djhla iys;j fu;fkda,a iy t;fkda,a ksIamdokh lsÍfï kj l¾udka;

j¾I 2025 § wdrïN flfrkq we;' j¾I 2030 § iy 2035 § ms<sfj,ska 1'5 Mtla iy 150 ktla jYfhka fïjdfha Odß;djh by< kxjkq we;' fulS l¾udka; my iòyd 2025" 2030 iy 2035 hk j¾Ij,§ iajNdúl jdhqj iòyd jk wkqrEmS b,a u" túg" ms<sfj,ska" 194" 271 iy 347

Mcf/d jkq we;' fuu ksIamdokfhka fldgila foaYSh l¾udka; iòyd Ndú; lsÍug o fldgila wmkhkh lsÍug o wfmaCIs;h' iajNdúl jdhqj we;s úg§" j¾;udkfha§ wm rg úiska wdkhkh lrkq ,nk ksIamdok mrdihla ksmojñka iajNdúl jdhq-mdol ridhksl l¾udka;hla ìysùug kj iajNdúl jdhqj-mdol l¾udka; u. mdokq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾'

úúO wxY fj; iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u" 2040 § b,a u 1"609 Mcf/d olajd

by< hd yels NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a j¾I 2018 § b,aü 93 Mcf/dla jkq we;' fuu YS>%;djh hgf;a 2040 olajd jir 22la ;siafia iajNdúl jdhqj iïmdokh lsÍug kï" iajNdúl

jdhq ksêj, 6 TcflOdß;djhla ;sìh hq;=fõ' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj i,lk úg" j¾I 2018 § 122

Mcf/d isg 2040§ 2525 Mcf/d olajd b,aü by< hkq we;s w;r jir 22la mqrd ksYaÑ;

YS>%;djhlska iajNdúl jdhqj iïmdokh lsÍfuys,d 10 Tcfl wkqrEmS Odß;djhla ta iòyd wjYH jkq we;'

iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u u.ska ¥IKldrl jdhq jk SO2" NOx iy TSP

fukau CO2" CH4" iy N2O we;=<;a yß;d.dr jdhq úfudapkh ùu wvq lr,kq we;' fuu ¥IKldrl jdhq iy wj,ïNs; wxY= wdYajdi lsÍu lrK fldg f.k we;s flfrk Yajik wdndO iòyd m%;sldr n,dfmdfrd;a;= jk frda.Skag m%;sldr lsÍfuys,d wm rfÜ fi!LH wxY flfrys we;s flfrk wmyiq;djh" ¥IKldrl jdhq wvqlr,Su u.ska wvq jkq we;' ishü wxYj, mßfNdackh flfrk bkaOk iòyd fulS úfudapk .Kkh lrkq ,en we;'

124

iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj ^BAU& hgf;a 2040 §" SO2 úfudapkh 359 kt" NO2 úfudapkh 283 kt"

TSP úfudapkh 22kt iy CO2 úfudapkh 103 Mtjkq we;' NG1 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a

iajNdúl jdhqj mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd§u u.ska 2040 § fuu w.hhka ms<sfj,ska 112 kt, 195

kt, 6 kt iy 74 Mt olajd wvqùu isÿ jkq we;' NG2 b,a¨ï wjia:dj hgf;a iajNdúl jdhqj

mshjfrka mshjr y`ÿkajd §u u.ska 2040 § fuu w.hhka ms<sfj,ska 46 kt, 154 kt, 3 kt iy 65

Mt olajd wvq ùu isÿ jkq we; ^33 jk j.=j n,kak&'

rch fj; iajNdúl jdhqj ,nd §ug wfmaCIs; ñ,-Btu ñ,shkhlg USD 15, 10 iy 5 hgf;a n,Yla;s fCIa;%hka mshjfrka mshjr Lksc f;,a" iy .,a w`.=re mjd bj;a lsÍu u.ska remsh,a

ì,shk .Kkl b;sßhla ,nd .ekSfï yelshdjla mj;S' iqmqreÿ b,a¨ï wjia:dj ^BAU& hgf;a

j¾I 2040§ n,Yla;s wxYfhys bkaOk iòyd uq`M úhou USD ì,shk 11'5la f,i weia;fïka;=

lr we;s w;r" th NG1 b,a,qï wjia:dj hgf;a USD ì,shk 4'6la o NG2 b,a,qï wjia:dj

hgf;a USD ì,shk 3'4 la o jkq we;' ta yd iudkju" mshjfrka mshjr iajNdúl jdhqj y`ÿkajd oSu u.ska" m%jdyk wxYfhys iy hQßhd ksIamdokh lsÍfï oS iudk b;sßhla ,nd .ekSug yelshdj ,efnkq we;' úfYaIfhkau" wkd.;fhaoS .,a w`.=re ñ, by< hEu ms<snò i,lk úg" ndysr n,mEïiòyd jeh jk msßjeh fkdie,l=j o iajNdúl jdhqj iys; n,Yla;s n,d.dr flfrys jeä reÑl;ajhla fuys,d olajkq we;' j¾;udkfha isÿ flfrk wdkhkh fjkqjg hQßhd iy fjk;a ksIamdok iajNdúl jdhqj fhdod ksmoùu u.ska remsh,a ì,shk .Kkla b;sß lr .ekSfï yelshdjla mj;S'

iajNdúl jdhqqjg udreùu u.ska fjk;a fndfyda m%;s,dN; tkï" n,Yla;s iqrCIs;;djh" wdydr iqrCIs;;djh" ÈhqKq lrk ,o f.jqï fYaIh" w¥Is; c,h" OQ,l f,day iy f¾äfhdakshqla,hsv iys; .,a w`.=re w`M iy bj; ,k oEj,ska ksoyi" cd;Hka;r neòSï imqrd,Su hkdÈh wm rgg ,efnkq we;' w;sßla;hla we;s úgoS iajNdúl jdhqj iy iajNdúl jdhqfjka ksmojk ,o ksIamdok wmkhkh lsÍfï wjia:djka fukau ys`.hla we;s jQ úg oS jdhqj wdkhkh lsÍfï

yelshdjka ms<snòj o i,ld n,k ,oS' yïnkaf;dg LNG keõ iòyd fjka lsÍfï myiqlï iemhSu ms<snòj o i,ld n,k ,oS'

13'2 ks¾foaY yels blaukska jHdmD;sh l%shd;aul lsÍu Wfoid" fidhd .kakd ,o iajNdúl jdhqj mßfNdackh lsÍu u.ska wm rgg m%;s,dN ,nd .; yelsh hk woyi we;sj" my; iòyka ks¾foaY bÈßm;a lrk ,oS' ld, rduq igyfka fmkakqï lr we;s mßÈ" tys 2018 jev fldgi imqrd .ekSug iqÿiq l%shdud¾.hla .ekSu fuys,d wjYH jkq we;'

m%;s,dNh iy wjodku hk oaú;ajh flfrys úfYaIfhka fmkakqï lrñka jHdmD;sh iòyd rcfha wkque;sh ,nd .ekSfï iy wêldÍkaf.ka ksoyia lr .ekSu iòyd kshñ; l%shdud¾. ksishdldr f,i wdrïN l< hq;=h'

ÿïßh ud¾. iòyd fjka lrk ,o bvu Tiafia k< ud¾.hla t,kjd o fkdtfia kï uqyqo hg k< ud¾.hla fjr< Tiafia fjr<g tmsáka t,kjdo hk f,i k.rhg jdhqj f.k hk l%fudamdhh ms<snòj wjika ;SrKhla .; hq;=h'

PCP bÈlsÍu iòyd l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmfha wjYH flfrk bvï w;am;a lr .ekSu iòyd iy mq;a;,fï isg lòdk olajd k< ud¾.hla t,Su msKsi ÿïßh fomd¾;fïka;=fõ bvu w;am;a lr .ekSu iòyd wjYH flfrk l%shd ud¾.j,g uq, msÍu'

125

úl,amhla f,i" fkdfrdÉfpdaf,a isg flrj,msáh olajd fjr< Tiafia uqyqo hg k< ud¾.hla t<Su iòyd fjr< ixrCIK iy ixj¾Ok fomd¾;fïka;=fjka wjirh b,a,d isàu'

flrj,msáfhys CST bÈlsÍug wjYH lrk bvu iy CST isg le,Ks;siai yd

flrj,msáh CCGT n,d.dr fj; k< ud¾.hla t,Su iòyd wjYH lrk bvu w;a m;a lr .ekSu'

wjYH flfrk há;, myiqlï ie,iqï lsÍu o we;=,;a jHdmD;sh iòyd iúia;rd;aul YlH;d wOHhkhla isÿ lsÍug Ndr .ekSu iy isú,a jevlghq;= l%shd;aul lsÍu iòyd ms<s.;a fldka;%d;alrejka fj; fldka;%d;a;= msßkeóu'

;r`.ldÍ ñ, .Kka leòùfuka wk;=rej" PCP" CST iy k< ud¾. iòyd wjYH flfrk wdrCIl WmlrK o iys;j n,d.dr iòyd hkaf;%damlrK ms<s.;a iemhqïlrejkaf.ka ñ,g .ekSu iy fok ,o ld, rduqj ;=< tajd ia:dms; lsÍu'

jdhqj iemhSu wjYH ;;ajhg m;a lsÍfuka wk;=rej jdhqj ñ,oS .ekSu iòyd CCGT n,Yla;s n,d.dr ;=fkys fufyhqïlrejka iu. .súiqï w;aika lsÍu'

fmroS iels,s.kajk ,o m%;sm;a;suh ueÈy;a ùï iòyd rcfha wkque;sh b,a,d isàu'

126

w mßYsIagh iudc - wd¾Ól b,a,qï wjia:dj

rg ;=< iajNdúl jdhqj mßfNdackh lsÍu iòyd my; úia;r lr we;s mßÈ rfÜ iudc wd¾Ól ;;ajh ms<snòj jgyd .ekSu wjYHfõ' w' 1 N+ñh

Y%S ,xldj" bkaÈhdj fuka tlu uydoaùmsl ;glhl msysgk" bkaÈhdkq w¾Ooaùmfhka 80kmla .sKsfldk foig jkakg msysgd ;sfnk ¥m;la fõ' m%Odk N+ñhg wu;rj" W;=re w¾Ooaùmh iy l,amsáh w¾Ooaùmh weiqre fldg f.k ta wdikakfha msysá l=vd ¥m;a 113la rgg wh;a fõ'

fïjdhska w¾Ohlg wdikak ixLHdjla 100 halg wvq jmißhlska hqla; jk w;r 1000 hag jvd

jeä jmißhla iys; ¥m;a we;af;a yhla ^06& muKs'bka úYd,;u ¥mf;a jmißh 12"600 hals169'

m%Odk osjhsk W;=re-ol=Kq ^N-S& ÈYdjg 435 kml Wmßu È.lska iy kef.kysr-ngysr Ê-W&

ÈYdjg 240 kml Wmßu m<,lska hqla; jk w;r LKavdxl 5o55z N iy 9o 50zN: 79o 42zE iy

81o 53z E w;r msysgd ;sfí' th" 65"610km2 l uq`M j¾. m%udKhlska iukaú; jk w;r" bka

62"705 km2la f.dvìu o 2"905 km

2la wNHka;r c,dY o fõ'170 WÉP;ajh iy lemS fmfkk N+ñ wdldrh u;" w 1 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ" my; oelafjk m%Odk N+ ,dCIKsl l,dmj,g Y%S ,xldj fnod olajd we;' uOHu l`ÿlrh

ksß; È. ^SW& my;a ìï

kef.kysr iy .sKsfldk È. ^SE& my;a ìï

W;=re iy W;=re ueo ^NC& my;a ìï

fjr< ;Srh j¾I 2006 oS m%ldYhg m;a lrk ,o 2004 fjr< l,dm l<udkdlrK ie,eiafu171 kj;u

ixialrKhg wkqj" fjr< ;Srh hkq 30m ifudaÉP f¾Ldj olajd jHdma; jk fjr< wh;a N+ñ m%udKh fõ172' uqyqÿ fndl= iy uqyqÿ ;=vq jgd fjr< f¾Ldj o we;=<;aj iy l,mq yer Èjhsk

jgd we;s uqyqo f¾Ldj 1620kmla os.ska hqla;h173' ksß; È. my;a ìïj,g jeäfhka j¾Idm;kh ,efnk w;r uyck;djf.ka jeä fldgila fuys jdih flf¾' uyjeis ,efnk ld,h ;=< .xj;=re we;s ùug bv ;sfnk m%Odk .x.d lsysmhla ksß; È. my;a ìï Tiafia uqyqog .,d hhs' kef.kysr iy .sKsfldk È. my;a ìï me;,s uqÿka iys; yqfol,d l`ÿ iu. /`<s iys; ;eks;,dj,ska iukaú; fõ' W;=re ueo my;a ìï" kef.kysr olakg ,efnk N+ñhg ;rula iudk fõ' uOHu l`ÿlrh yereK úg" rfÜ fndfyduhla m%foaYj, uo nEjqï iys;" wdikak jYfhka iu;," /<s iys; N+ñhla olakg ,efí' by< iQ¾h ;dmkhla ,eîu fya;= fldg f.k

by<u lDIsld¾ñl ksIamdÈ;;djhla W;=re ueo ^NC& iy kef.kysr my;a ìïj,ska ,efí' fndfyda c, ud¾.j, wdrïNh jk uOHu l`ÿlrh wêl j¾Idj ,enqKq úg kdhhEï isÿjk b;d ixfõoS mßir moaO;shlska iukaú; fõ' óg¾ 2000l WÉP;ajhg by<ska msysá WÉP;ajh 2"524

mla jk Wiu l`ÿ uqÿk jk msÿre;,d., o we;=<;a l`ÿ uqÿka 14la rfÜ olakg ,efí' flfiafj;;a" tlÿ c, ud¾.hla fuu lkafoka wdrïN fkdjk w;r rfÜ m%Odk .x.d folla

jk le,Ks .`. ^145 km& iy l`M .`. ^129 km& WÉP;ajfhka miajk ;ek .kakd lkao jk

127

Y%Smdo lkafoka ^2243m& wdrïN jk w;r" ;j;a m%Odk .x.d folla" tkï" uyje,s .`. ^335 km&

yd j<fõ .`. ^138 km& th iómfhka wdrïN fõ'

w 1 jk rEmh' Y%S ,xldfõ N+ úIu;d is;shu w' 2 iuqøsl c,h

Y%S ,xldjg o< jYfhka 517"000 km2l uq`M jmißhla iys; iuqødikak c,;,hl iaffjÍ

whs;shla ysñj ;sfí' fuh" fM;sydisl c,;,h ^Bidk iy W;=re Y%S ,xldj iy bkaÈhdj w;r jQ iuqødikak iSudj f;la úysfok&" uqyqÿ fndl= iy l,mqj, w¾O jD;a;j,g tmsáka f.dvìu foig jQ wNHka;r c,;,h" fN!ñl uqyqo ^W;=frys iy Bidfkys yereKq úg kdjql ie;mqï 12

la olajd úysfok&" ika;;sl l,dmh ^fN!ñl uqyqfoa isg 12 kmla olajd úysfok& iy rch úiska

ysñlï m%ldY lrk ,o wd¾Ól l,dmh ÊEZ& ^bkaÿ-Y%S ,xld iuqødikak iSudj u.ska i,l=Kq flreKq wka;#LKavh yereKq fldg kdjql ie;mqï 200la olajd úysfok& hkdÈfhka iukaú; jk w;r thg w 1 jk j.=fjys iy w 2 jk rEmfhys oljd we;'óg fM;sydisl c,;,h wh;a fkdfõ'

w 1 jk j.=j: Y%S ,xldfõ iuqøsl c,h 174"175

úia;rh jmißh km2 uQ,dY%

wNHka;r c,;,h 1,570 174

fM;sydisl c,;,h 12,060 174

ika;;sl c,;,h 19,620 174

fN!ñl c,;,h 21,500 175

iqúfYaIs wd¾Ól l,dmh 517,000 175

EEZ ;=<" c,fhys fyda uqyqÿ m;af<ys fyda mia hg fyda ;sfnkakd jQ Ôù iy wÔù iïm;a iòyd o fulS iïm;a .fõIKh lsÍu iòyd o ´kEu l%shdjla isÿ lsÍug Y%S ,xldjg iaffjÍ whs;shla

128

we;af;ah' bkaÈhdj iu. iïnkaO jk W;=r iy Bidk yereKq fldg m<, 20 kmla iy .eUqr

70 mla muK jQ jvd mgq uydoaùmsl ;glhla Y%S ,xldj i;= fõ'

uyoaùmsl ;glh 26"000 km2 la" tkï rfÜ j¾.M,fhka wvlg uola wvq m%udKhla wdjrKh

lrhs' fuu ;glhg tmsáka" uqyqÿ m;a<" 3 kmla ;=< 900 mlg wêl neiaula iys; fõ' f;,a .fõIKh isÿ lrk ,o ukakdrï fndlafla uqyqo jvd fkd.eUqre m%foaYhla fõ'

w' 2 jk rEmh' Y%S ,xldfõ iduqøsl iSud 176

uqyqÿ kS;sh ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a iïuq;sfhys ÛNCLOS& iemhqïj,g wkqj" rg jgd ;sfnk wjidê;j, .eUqr u; mokïj mq`M,a lrk ,o id.ßl m%foaYhl ysñlu iòyd Y%S ,xldj tlai;a cd;Ska fj;ska whÿï lr ;sfí' N+ lïmk ms<snò ióCIK iy pJøsld .=re;aj fldaaKsl ÿr Ndú; lr isÿ lrk ,o úu¾Yk Y%S ,xldjg o< jYfhka j¾. lsf,daógr ñ,shk 1'4l muK mq`M,a fCIa;%hla mqrd uqyqÿ m;af,a whs;sh iòyd ysñlï lSug yels nj wkdjrKh lrf.k ;sfí' tys ol=Kq udhsu" w 3 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s mßÈ iulhg o tmsáka úysfoñka fjrf<a isg 800

kmla ÿßka msysgd ;sfí' Y%S ,xldj tlaoyia kuish yeg .Kkaj, isg yhsfv%dldnka iïm;a iòyd ukakdrï fndlafla mq`M,a .fõIK isÿ lr ;sfí' i;H jmißh ;ju;a ;SrKh lr fkdue;s kuqÿ rch iajNdúl jdhq ksê fidhd .ekSu ms<snòj ksfõokhla ksl=;a fldg ;sfí' f;,a iy jdhq iòyd úNjhla ;sfnk m%Nj f,i fldgia lsysmhla y`ÿkdf.k ;sfnk w;r tajd .fõIKh lsÍu iòyd ;ju;a fldka;%d;a;=jla msßkeóu isÿ fldg fkdue;' m%;sm;a;s ilialrkakka yg .fõIK wLKavj isÿ lrkjdo ke;akï w;aysgjkjdo hkak ms<snò ;SrKhla .ekSug yelshdj ,nd oSu iòyd fidhd .kakd ,o jdhq Ndú; lsÍfuys jdis -;dCIKsl" wd¾Ól" iy mßißuh-;yjqre lr.ekSu ms<snò woyi we;sj j¾;udk wOHhkh isÿ lsÍug Ndrf.k ;sfí' .fõIKh isÿ lr ;sfnk fCIa;%h w 4 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï lr ;sfí' yhsfv%dldnka m%Nj f,i l%shd l< yels fldgia lsysmhla iòyd f.k we;s kuqÿ fuf;la .fõIK lghq;= isÿ lr ;sfnkafka tla fldgil muKs'

129

w 3 jk rEmh' Y%S ,xldj úiska ysñlï m%ldY lrk ,o mq`M,a EEZ177

w 4 jk rEmh' yhsfv%dldnk ksê yuq jQ m%foaYh 178

w'3 rfÜ c, ud¾. uOHu l`ÿlrfhka wdrïN ù fndfyduhla wÍh Èidjkag ûyje,s .`. yereKq úg& .,d hk .x.d 103la Y%S ,xldfõ ;sfí' tajdfha fmdaIl m%foaY" j¾. lsf,daógr oYl lsysmhl isg 10"000

km2lg wêl m%udKhla jk fia úp,khla fmkakqï lrhs' rfÜ È.u .f`.ys 10"000 km

2lg

uola jeä úYd,;u .x.d fødaKsh;a iu. jmißh 1000 km2lg jvd jeä .x.d fødaKs 17la rfÜ

;sfí' tajdfha jHdma;sh my; iòyka wdldrhg j¾.SlrKh l< yelsh179'

2"000 km2lg jeä fmdaIl m%foaY iys; m%Odk .x.d 07 la

500-2000 km2;a w;r fmdaIl m%foaY iys; .x.d 21la

100-500 km2;a w;r fmdaIl m%foaY iys; .x.d 32la

b;sß .x.d 43g 100 km2g jvd wvq fmdaIl m%foaY ;sfí'

130

rfÜ È.u .`. jk uyje,s .`. ishü .x.dj,ska .,d hk uq`M c, m%udKfhka o< jYfhka 20]

la muK jk wdikak jYfhka 9"000 Mm3l jd¾Isl uOHkH c, m%udKhla uqyqog uqod yÍ'

fjr< fmdaIKh iòyd w;HjYH jk je,s iy frdkauv úYd, m%udKhla fuu .x.d u.ska f.k tkq ,efí' úfYaIfhka ksß; È. fudaiï l%shdldß;ajhg md;%S jk m%foaYj, ;Sj% j¾Idm;k we;s jQ l, iuyr úYd, .x.dj,ska ksrka;r c, .e,Sï we;sfõ' uq`M jir mqrdu c, m%jdyh mj;ajdf.k hkafka .x.d lsysmhla muKla jk w;r j¾Idm;kfhys jd¾Islj isÿjk úp,;djhg wkqrEmSj jeis iuh wkqj fjkiajkq ,nk c, m%jdyhkawfkla .x.d mj;ajdf.k hhs' óg¾ 2000lg jvd by< WÉP;ajhla we;s uOHu l`ÿlrh rfÜ fndfyda .x.djkaf.a m%Njh fõ' j;= j.d iy lDIsld¾ñl lghq;= isÿ flfrk N+ñ njg mßj¾;kh lsÍu fya;= fldg f.k Wia ìïj, jQ jk wdjrKh ks;sm;d wvq fjñka mj;sk w;r fuh wêl j¾Idm;kh mj;sk úg CIKsl .x j;=r we;s lsÍug;a my<g .,d hk c, Odrdj, frdka uv by< kexùug;a fya;= fõ' by< m%foaYj, l¾udka;lrejka iy uyck;dj >k iy øj li< c, ud¾.hg uqod yeÍu idudkHfhka isÿ lrk ksid tajd wjidkfha§ .x.dj,g tl;= fõ' fuf,i .x.d ¥IKh ùu wju lsÍu Wfoid ál l,lg fmr rchúiska zzmú;% .x`.dZZ jevigyk wdrïN l< o th t;rï M,odhS jQ njla fmfkkakg ke;' fndfyda mßißl ydks we;s lrñka m%Odk .x.dj, wêl f,i isÿ lr f.k hkq ,nk je,s f.dv±óu wd¾Ól lghq;a;la f,i ye`Èkaúh yelsh' wjirm;a ,nd §u u.ska fuh hdukh flreK o" bÈ lsÍï l¾udka;fhys je,s iòyd ;sfnk wêl b,aü imqrd,Sug iuyr úg fr.=,dis mjd W,a,x>kh lrñka iSudj blaujd wêl f,i je,s leKSu

isÿ lrkq ,nhs' niakdysr m<df;a .x.dj,ska je,s leKSu" 2001 jif¾§ >k ógr ñ,shk ^Mcm&

6la muK jQ nj;a" th 2006 j¾Ih jk úg 12 Mcm olajd by< hd yels nj;a weia;fïka;= fldg ;snqKs180' iajNdúl c, ud¾.j,g wu;rj" f.dúìï lrd ñksid úiska idokq ,enQ c,dYj, tla /ia lr .;a c,h f.k hEu msKsi Y; j¾I .Kkdjlg fmr" úfYaIfhka W;=reueo m<d; ;=< jQ jdß c, ud¾. we;=<;a ñksid úiska ;kk ,o fndfyda c,ud¾. rfÜ olakg ,efí' c, ys`.hla

mj;sk W;=re ueo m<d; ^NCP&g c,h f.k hEu msKsi rfÜ m%Odk .x.dj jQ uyje,s .`. yerjqu;a iu. oYl lsysmhlg fmr fuu jdß c, ud¾. moaO;sh mq`M,a lsÍu isÿ lrk ,§' .x.dOdr Tiafia NdKav iy ±j m%jdykh lsÍu msKsi ,kafoaiSka úiska ;kjk ,o we< ud¾. cd,hla o niakdysr m<df;a olakg ,efí' fuu we< ud¾." w. k.rfhka msg; msysá my;a ìïj, tl;= jk jeis c,h bj;a lsÍu iòyd o Wmldr ù ;sfí' w' 4 wd¾Ólh

o< foaYSh ksIamdokfhys ^GDP& uQ,Huh jákdlu f,i Y%S ,xld uy nexl=j ^CBSL& rfÜ wd¾Ólh ú.%y lrhs' WoaOukh fya;= fldg f.k we;s úh yels úIu;djh bj;a lsÍu msKsi jif¾ j¾;udk ñ, fyda uQ,dY% j¾Ihl ia:djr ñ, fyda Ndú; fldg th .Kkh lrkq ,nhs'

LKR ì,shkj,ska m%ldY flreKq 2008 isg 2013 olajd" j¾;udk ñ, mokï fldg f.k iy

2002 ñ, mokï fldg f.k GDP w.hhka lÜg, fol" w 5 jk rEmfhys olajd we;' WoaOuk

idOlh bj;a lsÍu iu." i;H GDP f,i y`ÿkajkq ,nk" ia:djr ñ, GDP, j¾;udk ñ, moku ^14'51]& iu. ixikaokh lrk úg" wvq j¾Ok fõ.hla ^6'68]la& fmkakqï lrhs' jißka

jir wd¾Ól j¾Ok fõ.h ixikaokh lsÍu iòyd idudkHfhka ñ, mokï fldg.;a GDP fyda

i;H GDP fyda Ndú; lrhs'

j¾I 2005-2013 ld,h ;=<GDPys i;H j¾Ok fõ.h w'6 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï lrhs' j¾Ok fõ.h" 2006 j¾Ifha§ 7'7]la jQ w;r th 2009 § 3'5] olajd my; nei ;sfí' bka wk;=rej t<eô

131

jir fol ;=<§ ms<sfj,ska" 8'0] iy 8'2] jQ w;r 2012 j¾Ih ;=< mj;ajd .ekSug yelsù we;af;a 6'4]l j¾Ok fõ.hla muKs' j¾I 2013 ;=< 7'25] olajd iq`M jeäùula fmkakqï fldg we;'

w'5 jk rEmh' 2008-2013 ld,h ;=< Y%S ,xldfõ GDPys j¾Okh 181

w'6 jk rEmh' 2005-2013 ld,h ;=< ksh;GDP j¾Okfhys úp,kh 182

lDIsl¾uh" l¾udka; iy fiajd hk iEu wd¾Ól wxYhla iòydu GDP .Kkh lsÍu o isÿ flf¾' fïjd kej;;a Wm-wxYj,g fnokq ,nk w;r" m%;sm;a;s ilialrkakkaf.a myiqj iòyd

tlS Wm-wxY iòyd o fjk fjku GDP .Kkh lrkq ,efí' m%Odk wxY ;=k-lDIsl¾uh"

l¾udka; iy fiajd- w;r 2008-2003 ld,h iòyd GDP fn§ hk wdldrh w'7 jk rEmfhka fmkakqï fldg we;' by<u odhl;ajhla fiajd wxYfhka ,eî we;s w;r l¾udka; iy lDIsl¾uh bka wk;=rej odhl;ajh ,nd § we;' j¾I 2012 § wd¾Ólhg 11]l odhl;ajhla muKla ,nd § we;s neúka Y%S ,xldfõ wd¾Ólh lDIsl¾uh u; mokïj we;ehs hk úYajdih ;j ÿrg;a j,x.= fkdfõ' fiajd wxYh 2012 § 60]lg wdikak m%udKhl odhl;ajhla ,nd § we;s w;r l¾udka; wxYh 30]lg uola jeä m%udKhl odhl;ajhla olajd we;' flfiafj;;a" fuu ld,h ;=<" wxY ;=ku Okd;aul j¾Okhla fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' uynexl= jd¾;dj,g wkqj" 2011 § 14'2] isg 2012 § 21'6] olajd bÈ lsÍï Wm-wxYfhys odhl;ajh iys;j 2012 § wd¾Ólfha mq`M,a ùug ie,lsh hq;= ;rfï iyNd.s;ajhla iys;j l¾udka; wxYh 10'3] lska j¾Okh ù we;'

wfursldkq fvd,¾j,ska m%ldY flfrk j¾;udk ñ, mokï fldg .;a" tal mQoa., GDP rgj,a

w;r wd¾Ólhka ixikaokh lsÍug fhdod .kakd fmdÿ o¾Ylhla fõ' j¾I 2008 § USD 2014

isg 2013 § USD 3"280 olajd tal mqoa., GDP by< f.dia ;sfnk ld,mßÉfþoh jk 2008-2013

132

ld,h iòyd Y%S ,xldj iïnkaO w.hhka w 8 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;' jirla ;=<

´kEu úfoaYSh wdodhula tl;= lrk ,o GDP w.h jk o< cd;sl ksIamdÈ;h ^GNP& ;j;a

o¾Ylhla fõ' iuyr úg GNP, GDPj,g jvd uola wvq wjia:dj,§ fuh RK w.hhla ùug bv ;sfí'

w 7 jk rEmh' 2008-2013 ld,h ;=< ^j¾;k&GDP fj; wdxYsl odhl;ajh 183

iuyr úg" GNP o< cd;sl wdodhu ^GNI& f,i o y`ÿkajkq ,efí' cd;Hka;r uQ,H ixúOdk

idudkHfhka f,dalfha we;s rgj,a tu rgj, tal mqoa., GDP u; fyda tal mqoa., GNI u;

j¾. lsÍu isÿ lrhs' fj<òdu iy ixj¾Okh ms<snò tlai;a cd;Skaf.a iïfï,khg ÛNCTAD&

wkqj" idudkH tal mqoa., GDPj,g wkqj rgj, wd¾Ólhka WmldKav ;=klg" by< wdodhï

ÛSD 4"500g jeä&" ueo wdodhï ÛSD 1000- USD 4"500;a w;r& iy wvq wdodhï ^ USD 1000g wvq& jYfhka fnod we;'

w 8 jk rEmh' 2008-2013 ld,h ;=< tal mqoa., GDPys ^j¾;k& j¾Okh 184

tfyhska" Y%S ,xldj j¾;udkfha ueo wdodhï rgj,a ldKavhg wh;afõ' flfiafj;;a" GDP

mokï jQ tal mqoa., wdodhu uyck;djf.a i;H tal mqoa., wdodhu iu. mg,jd .ekSu isÿ fkdl< hq;=h' j¾I 2012 § isÿ lrk ,o .Dyia: wdodhï iy úhoï ióCIKhg wkqj" Y%S

,xldfõ l=gqïNhla iòyd iudkH wodhu LKR 46"207 la jQ w;r mqoa.,hska 3'9la isák idudkH

l=gqïNhla iòyd 2012 § idudkH tal mqoa., wdodhu USD 1"093la úh185' CBSL jd¾Isl jd¾;djg wkqj" 2013 § 7'5]l YS>%;djhlska rfÜ wd¾Ólh mq`M,a jkq we;s njg m%CIsma;hka isÿ fldg we;s

133

w;r" uOH ld,Skj th 8]lg jeä m%CIsma; u.la foig l%ufhka p,kh jkq we;' m%CIsma; YS>%

wd¾Ól j¾Okh;a iu." 2017 § USD 5"485l w.hlg <`.d fjñka w 9 jk rEmfhys olajd we;s

mßÈ Y%S ,xldj USD 5000 foay,Sh talmqoa., wdodhu miq lrkq we;'

GDP ms<snò ueos-ld,Sk mqfrdal:k muKla CBSL isÿ lrk w;r 2017 jk úg USD

5"485$capita olajd i;H GDPj, isÿjkq we;s njla fmkajd,ñka w'9 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï lr ;sfí' ishü rgj,a ms<snò È.=ld,Sk mqfrdal:khka cd;Hka;r ksfhdað;dh;khla - fj<òdï

wd¾Ólh;a - isÿ lrhs' Tjqkaf.a mqfrdal:kj,g wkqj" Y%S ,xldfõ GDP/capita w.h 2015 jk úg

USD 3508la o" 2020 jk úg USD 5470la o iy 2030 § USD 10"788la olajd o by< hkq we;186'

w' 9 jk rEmh' 2017 olajd m%laIsma;GDP ys ^j¾;udk& j¾Okh 187

wdishdkq rgj,a iòyd talmqoa., GDP fmkakqï lrk w'10 jk rEmfhys l,dmfha wfkl=;a rgj,a iu. Y%S ,xldfõ wd¾Ólfha ;;ajh fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' Y%S ,xldfõ tal mqoa., wdodhu"

isx.mamqrej fydxfldx iy cmdkh jeks rgj, GDPj,ska 1$10 lg;a wvq nj fmfkkakg ;sfí'

w'10 jk rEmh' wdishdfõ tal mqoa., GDP ^j¾;k ñ,& jHdma;sh - 2011 188

134

w'6 oßø;d uÜgu j¾I 2012 ixLHdf,aLkj,g wkqj" tlsfklg fjkia wxY ;=klg" - kd.ßl" .%dóh iy j;=- j¾.SlrKh lrk ,o ksjdi ñ,shk 5'2la muK Y%S ,xldfõ ;sfí' uyk.r iy k.r iNd n, m%foaY ;=< ksjdi" kd.ßl wxYh hg;g o j;= yer b;sß ish¨ m%foaY .%dóh wxYh hg;g o jefÜ' kd.ßl" .%dóh iy j;= hk wxY ms<sfj,ska 22]" 72] iy 6]l ck.khlska iukaú; fõ' jeú,s iud.ï u.ska /lshd imhk ,o fiajlhskaf.ka j;= m%cdj iukaú; fõ' ck yd ixLHdf,aLk fomd¾;fïka;=j úiska 2012 § mj;ajk ,o .Dyia: wdodhï iy úhoï

ióCIKh ^HIES& fuu wxY ;=fkys wdodhï iy úhoï ms<snò f;dr;=re iemhSh' wdodhï úia;r w 2 jk j.=fjys olajd we;s w;r úhoï ms<snò úia;r w 3 jk j.=fjys fmkakqï fldg we;'

w 2 jk j.=j' úúO wxYj, udisl uOHkH .Dyia: wdodhu ^2012&189

wxYh

.Dyia: uOHkH wdodhu LKR/

month

.Dyfha m%udKh

uOHkH tal mqoa., wdodhu

LKR/

month

uOHkH tal mqoa., wdodhu USD/

month

kd.ßl 68,336 4.0 17,150 134.40

.%dóh 42,184 3.8 11,003 86.23

j;= 31,895 4.1 7,719 60.49

cd;sl 46,207 3.9 11,932 93.51

w 3 jk j.=j' úúO wxYj, udisl uOHkH .Dyia: úhou ^2012&190

wxYh

udisl uOHkH HH úhou LKR uq`M

m%udKh wdydr bkaOk iy

wdf,dalkh m%jdykh

kd.ßl 59,001 18,513 3,165 6,226

.%dóh 37,361 14,704 1,433 3,119

j;= 29,779 14,779 1,332 2,138

cd;sl 40,889 15,338 1,724 3,607

oßø;d YS¾I ixLHdj ^PHC& f,i m%ldY flfrk Y%S ,xldfõ oßø;d uÜgu 2002 § 22'7] isg

2012 § 6'5] olajd jir .Kkdjla ;siafia wvq fjñka mj;S' PHC hkq wxYh ;=< uq`M ck.ykhg

ks< oßø;d f¾Ldjg ÔPL& my<ska Ôj;ajk ck.ykh olajk wkqmd;hhs' miq.sh oYlh ;=< §

OPL, uilg LKR 1"423la f,i i,lk ,§' fuu iEu wxYhlu fulS wdodhï uÜgug jvd wvqfjka Ôj;ajk ck.ykfha fldgi w 4 jk

j.=fjys olajd we;' PHC wdikak jYfhka mia .=Khlska by< f.dia we;s j;= wxYfhys jvd;a lemS fmfkk ÈhqKqjla olakg ,efnk w;r b;sß wxY foflysu fuh ;=ka .=Khlska muKla by< f.dia we;' j;= lïlrejka yg f.jkq ,nk fõ;k by< kexùu óg m%Odk fya;=j jk w;r j;= wxYfhka ;reK ck;dj jeämqr fldgila k.rj, /lshd fidhd hEu hk lreK o fuhg fya;= ù ;sfí'

135

bkaOk iy wdf,dalkh ms<snò .Dyia: úhou wxY ;=fkysu l=vd fldgila muKla- tkï" kd.ßl" 5'4] la" .%dóh" 3'8] la iy j;= wxYfhys 4'8]la ù ;sfí' cd;sl uÜgfï úhou 4'2] la muKla ù ;sfí' fuu wvq úhou iòyd tla fya;=jla jkafka fndfyda ksjdi ^77]la& wdydr msiSu iòyd or Ndú; lsÍu iy wdf,dalk lghq;= iòyd nyq;rhlg úÿ,sn,h iyk ñ,lg ,nd §uh' wks;a w;g" m%jdyk wxYh iòyd úhou wxY ;=k iòyd ms<sfj,ska 10'6]" 8'3] iy 7'2]la njg m;afjñka iy cd;sl w.hh 8'8]la njg m;afjñka uola by< f.dia ;sfí'191

w 4 jk j.=j' úúO wxYj, oßø;d YS¾I ixLHdj

wxYh oßø;d YS¾I ixLHdj ]

2002 2012 kd.ßl 7.9 2.4

.%dóh 24.7 7.5

j;= 30.0 6.2

cd;sl 22.7 6.5

w'6 ck úldYkh Y%S ,xldfõ l=vd N+ñh ;=< by< ck.ykhla olakg ,eîuby< ck.yk >k;ajhla m%;sM,h lrjhs' jir 10lg jrla mj;ajkq ,nk ix.Kkhla u.ska rfÜ ck.ykh .Kkh lrkq ,nk w;r" miq.sh Y;j¾Ih wdrïNfha isg tys j¾Okh w 11 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' iEu oYlhla wdrïNfha§ ix.Kkhla meje;aùug ;sfnk wfmaCIdjg" jrla fojk f,dal hqoaOh u.ska o kej; jrla 1990 uq,a Nd.fha we;s jQ le/,a, u.ska o ndOd lrkq ,enqKs' wjidk ix.Kkh isÿ lsÍug kshñ;j ;snqfKa 2011 j¾Ifha § jQjo ld¾h ixúOdk .eg¨jla fya;= fldg f.k th meje;aùug isÿ jQfha 2012 j¾Ifha§h' miq.sh Y; j¾Ih wdrïNfha ñ,shk 3'5la jeks w.hl isg 2012 j¾Ifha§ ñ,shk 20'28la jeks w.hhka olajd ck.ykh j¾Okh ù ;sfnk w;r th wdikak jYfhka yh .=Khl by< hdula fõ' idudkH jd¾Isl j¾Ok fõ.h miq.sh Y; j¾Ifhys mkia .Kkaj, wdikak jYfhka 3]l muK fõ.hl isg wjika oYlh ;=< 2'7]l muK fõ.hla olajd my; nei ;sfí' ix.Kk j¾I w;r ld,mßÉfþoh iòyd Wm;a iy urK wkqmd; u; mokïj jir-ueo ck.yk w.hhka ;lafiare lrkq ,efí' ix.Kk j¾I folla jk 2001 iy 2012 wdjrKh lrñka 1991-2013 ld,mßÉfþoh iòyd w.hhka w 12 jk rEmh fmkakqï lrhs' ck yd ixLHd f,aLk fomd¾;fïka;=j u.ska ix.Kkh mj;ajkq ,nk w;r jir ueo ck.yk w.hhka frðiag%d¾

ckrd,a fomd¾;fïka;=j u.ska iemfhk Wm;a iy urK ms<snò o;a; u; mokïj CBSL u.ska m%ldYhg m;a lrkq ,efí'

136

w 11 jk rEmh' 1901-2012 olajd ck.yk j¾Okh192

w 12 jk rEmh' 1991-2013 w;r ld,h ;=< ueos-jir ck.yk j¾Okh 193

ix.Kk j¾Ihg fmr jif¾" tkï" 2000-2001 ;=< iy kej;;a 2011-2012 ld,h ;=< jd¾Isl ck.yk j¾Okh RK w.hhla f.k we;' j¾I 1991 isg 2000 olajd j¾Okh 1'13]l idudkH w.hhla fmkakqï fldg we;s w;r 2001 iy 2012 w;r ld,h ;=< oYlh iòyd iuia; my< neiaula ,nd foñka th -2'8]la ù ;sfí' ix.Kk j¾Ihg fmr jir iòyd fmkakqï lrk ,o fuu RKuh fjki i;H fjkila o fkd tfia kï fmr jir iòyd ifodia ;lafiarejla ,nd .ekSuo hkak meyeÈ,s lr .; hq;=h' tjeks RK j¾Okhla ck.ykh iòyd fmkakqï lsÍu msKsi Wm;a wkqmd;slh by< hEu isÿúh hq;=h' j¾I 2001 iy 2012 w.hhka ix.Kkh u; mokïj we;s ksid" fmr jir iòyd w.hhka wê-;lafiare w.hhka úh yelsh' fuys,d fkdi,ld yer we;s tla idOlhla jkafka iaÒr jYfhkau úfoia .; ù we;s mqoa., ixLHdjhs' Y%S ,xldfõ idudkH ck.yk >k;ajh" 2012 ix.Kkfha§ wkdjrKh flreKq mßÈ j¾. lsf,daógrhlg mqoa.,hska 323la ù ;sfí' cd;sl idudkH fuka oi.=Khla" tkï" j¾. lsf,daógrhlg 3"438la fld<U Èia;%slalh ;=< o" oyfhka mx.=jg wdikak w.hhla jk j¾. lsf,daógrhlg 38la uq,;sõ Èia;%slalh iòyd o iys;j rg ;=< ck.yk >k;ajh mq`M,a úp, ;djhla fmkakqï lrhs' rg ;=< ck.yk >k;ajfha jHdma;sh w 13 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï flf¾'

137

w 13 jk rEmh' Èia;%slal w;r ck.yk >k;aj ^2012& jHdma;sh' by<u ck.yk >k;aj niakdysr m<df;a Èia;%slal ;=k ;=< fmkakqï flf¾' ck.yk jHdma;sh" idudkHfhka rfÜ j¾Idm;k rgdj" iajNdúl N+ ,CIKh" iy iajNdúl jk wdjrKh wkq.ukh lrhs' by< jdKsc iy mßmd,kuh lghq;= iys; fld<U Èia;%slalh i;=j by<u

>k;ajh olakg ,efí' niakdysr m<df;a ^WP& by< ck.yk >k;ajh kv;a;= lsÍu iòyd wjYH flfrk bvï" c,h iy n,Yla;s we;=<;a iïm;a iòyd we;s b,aü by< hEu ksid iy mßirh u; we;s úh yels wys;lr n,mEï hkdÈh ksid cd;sl fN!;sl ie,iqï

fomd¾;fïka;=j ^NPPD& tys kj cd;sl fN!;sl ie,iqu ^NPP& u.ska ck.ykh wvq m%foaYj,g niakdysr m<df;a isg ck.ykfha ixl%uKhla fhdackd lrhs' úh<s iy jkdka;r iys; m%foaYj, fukau l`ÿlr m%foaYj, o msysá Èia;%slalj, wvqu >k;ajhla olakg ,efí' f;;a l,dmfhys niakdysr iy ol=Kq m<d;aj, Èia;%slalj, by<>k;aj mj;sk

w;r tlS úIu;djh iu uÜgulg f.k tau msKsi kj fufg%dfmd,sgka l,dm ^MR& niakdysr m<df;ys mSvkh wvq lr ,kq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' fhdað; kj fufg%dfmd,sgka m%foaYj, msysàu fmkajd,ñka fïjd 14 jk rEmfhys olajd ;sfí'

kj ie,iqfuys iuyr ,CIK jkafka:

wkd.; m%Odk MR" ;%sl=Kdu,h" wkqrdOmqrh" fmdf<dkakrej iy oUq,a, u.ska tlg ne`ÿKq m%foaYh jkq we;'

fojk m%Odk MR yïnkaf;dg wjg iy f;jekak wïmdr m%foaYhla jkq we;'

ixfõoS uOHu l`ÿlrfhys 300mg by<ska m%foaY ixj¾Okh lsÍu md,kh lrkq we;'

c, iq,n;djhg iy mßirh u; wvq n,mEu flfrys ksis ie,ls,a, ,nd fokq we;'

kj ld¾ñl l,dm niakdysr m<df;ka túg ia:dms; lrkq we;' fufg%dfmd,sgka rdcH folla jk isx.mamqrej iy fydxfldx yereKq úg wdishdkq rgj, ck.yk >k;aj" w 15 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg ;sfí' jHdma;s ,ehsia;=fõ by< 1$3 fldgi ;=< Y%S ,xldj msysgd ;sfí' tksid" N+ñ m%foaYhlg bvï" c,dY" iy n,Yla;sh we;=<;a iïm;a iòyd b,aü wfkla wdishd;sl rgj,g jvd wêl fõ' ixj¾Ok lghq;= lrK fldg f.k mßirh u; we;sjk n,mEu iu. o fuys iïnkaO;djhla ;sfí'

138

w 14 jk rEmh' fhdað; kd.rsl iy ld¾ñl l,dm 194

w 15 jk rEmh' 2011-2012 § wdishd;sl rgj, ck.yk >k;ajh 195

o is,ajd úiska fuu Y; j¾Ih wjidkh olajd isÿ lrk ,o ck.yk m%CIsma;hka j¾Ok fõ.fhys wvqùula fmkakqï lrk w;r w 16 jk rEmfhys fmkakqï fldg we;s mßÈ fuu.ska oYl ;=klska ^03& muK ck.ykfhys WÉP;ajh we;s lrjkq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' b,a¨ï wjia:d ;=k-by<" uOHu iy my< - hgf;a isÿ lrk ,o fuu m%CIsma;hka ms<sfj,ska 2041 § ñ,shk 23'3 la" 2031 § ñ,shk 21'9la iy 2021 § ñ,shk 20'9la hkd§ f,i WÉP w.hhla fmkakqï lrhs' j¾I 2001 § wrUk ,o m%CIsma;hka 2011 iòyd mqfrdal:kh lrk ,o w.hhka ;=k" by<" uOHu iy my< hkqfjka isÿúh yels wjia:d 3la hgf;a" ñ,shk 20'774" ñ,shk 20'558 iy ñ,shk 20'221la úh' j¾I 2012 iòyd .Kkh lrk ,o w.hh 20'278la jQ w;r th my< wjia:d

139

mqfrdal:khg wdikak w.hhla úh' fuu m%jK;djhu wLKavj isÿfõ kï" wkd.; ck.ykh my< b,a¨ï wjia:d mqfrdal:khg uola by<ska ud¾.hla wkq.ukh lrkq we;' fuys wre; jkafka" fuu Y;j¾Ih wjidkfha§ ck.ykh ñ,shk 15g jvd wvq úh yels njhs'

w 16 jk rEmh' isÿúh yels wjia:d 3 hgf;a 2101 olajd ck.yk m%CIsma;hka196' w'7 foaY.=Kh Y%S ,xldj" ol=Kq wdishd;sl fudaiï iq<x u.ska md,kh flfrk j¾Idm;k rgdj iys; ksj¾;k

wd¾ø rgls' ksß; È. ^SW& fudaiï iq<x mj;sk úg" uehs isg iema;eïn¾ olajd udi ;=< 2"500

mmlg wêl j¾Idm;khla jd¾Islj ksß; È. ^SW& y;frka mx.=jg ^lajodka;=jg& ,efí' rfÜ

b;sß m%foaYj, fndfyda fldgiaj,g foieïn¾ isg fmnrjdß hk udi ;=< 1750 mmlg wvq

j¾Idm;khka Bidk È. ^NE& fudaiï iq<x f.k ths' oCIsK w¾Of.da,fha isg ksß; foiska yuk iq<`." iy W;a;r w¾O f.da,fha isg Bidk foiska yuk iq<`. wka;¾-ksj¾;k wNsirK

l,dmh ÎTCZ& kï jQ m%foaYhla mqrd úYd, mßudKfha ixjyk l%shdjla we;s lrñka wdjrKh lrhs'

ksß; È. ^SW& fudaiï ld,h ;=<" ITCZ Y%S ,xldfõ W;=rg jkakg msysgk w;r" Bidk È. ^NE& fudaiï ld,h ;=< ixjyk l%shdj rfÜ iEu fldgilgu j¾Idj f.k ths' rgg ,efnk jd¾Isl j¾Idm;kfhys 1961-2000 olajd ld,h ;=< idudkH w17 jk rEmfhys oelafõ' jirlg 2"500

mmlg wêl j¾Idm;khla ,nkakd jQ ksß; È. y;frka mx.=j ^lajodka;=j& wdjrKh lrñka f;;a l,dmfha udhsu fuka meyeÈ,sj fmkajd,hs'

Èjhsfkys jd¾Isl uOHkH mDIaàh jdhq WIaK;ajh 27oCl idudkH w.hhla iys;j 20o

C-30oC;a

w;r mrdifha msysgd ;sfí' WÉP;ajh u; mokïj mYaÑu Nd.fhys fmr fldgfia oS Wmßu

WIaK;ajho ysre nei hdug uolg fmroS wju WIaK;ajho iys;j 5-10oC;a w;r mrdihl

ffoksl úp,khla fuh fmkakqï lrhs' jeo.;a m%foaY úYsIag rgd fj; fhduq fjñka WIaK;ajfhys ie,lsh hq;= ffoksl" iD;=uh" iy wjldYhSh úp,khla olakg ,efí'

140

w 17 jk rEmh' 1961-2000 ld,h ;=<jd¾Isl uOHkH j¾Idm;kh197

w 18 jk rEmh' 1961-2000 ld,h ;=<jd¾Isl uOHkH WIaK;ajh

my;a ìïj," 20 oCg my;ska WIaK;ajh wvq jkafka b;d l,d;=rlsks' úfYaIfhka" j¾Idm;kh

wjuhla jk jhU È. wE; fl<jr iy .sKsfldk È. wE; fl<jr È.= ld,Sk kshx ld,j,oS

th 30 oC blaujk 38 o

C olajd by< hkq we;' iaÓr;dhS isis,k wkqmd;slh u.ska md,kh

flfrk by< WÉP;ajfha oS uOHkH jd¾Isl WIaK;ajfhys wvqùu kqjrt<sh ^1"890m& by<

WÉP;aj uOHia:dkfhaoS 15 oCla muKjQ uOkH jd¾Isl WIaK;ajhlg <`.dfõ' uOHia:dk 18loS

isÿ lrk ,o ksÍCIK u; mokïj jd¾Isl idudkH uOHkH WIaK;aj is;shu w 18 jk rEmfhys oelafõ' uOHu l`ÿlr m%foaYj, wvq WIaK;ajh meyeÈ,sj i,l=Kq fldg ;sfí' rfÜ ksj¾;k foaY.=Kh i;=j n,Yla;s b,a¨fuys bisüla ;sfí' fi!LH l,dmsl rgj, fuka fkdj" Y%S ,dxlslhskag idudkHfhka YS; udi ;=<oS wjldYhSh ;dmkh iòyd n,Yla;sh jeh

lsÍfï wjYH;djhla fkdue;' flfiafj;;a" udisl uOHkHh WIaK;ajh jir mqrd 16 oCl

mj;sk iy rd;%S ld,fha WIaK;ajh 10 oC g jvd wvq uÜgulg my; nisk by< WÉP;ajj,oS

wjldYhSh ;dmkh isÿ lsÍfï wjYH;djhla mj;S' rfÜ jeä m%udKhla mj;sk my;rg" Èjd

ld,fha WIaK;ajh 30 oC blaujk w;r" wd¾ø;djh 80] iy 90] w;r mj;S' tjeks wd¾ø

mßirhla hgf;a" Ôj;ajk jgmsgdfõ WIaK;ajh iy wd¾ø;djh jvd iqjodhS w.hhla njg md,kh lsÍug yels kï" th jvd ys;lr jkq we;' flfiafj;;a" nyq;rhla ñksiqkag <`.d lr

.; fkdyels jdhq-iólrK ÂC& moaO;s u; wdfhdackh isÿ lsÍug n,Yla;sh u; by< úhoula wjYH flfrkq we;' fuu moaO;s ia:dms; lrk ,oafoa jQjo tajd kv;a;= lsÍug" j¾;udkfha úÿ,sn,h iòyd mj;sk nÿ fya;= fldg f.k wêl úhoula oeÍug isÿ jkq we;'

141

wd mßYsIagh

ukakdrï fndlalg tmsáka foaYSh iajNdúl jdhq ksIamdokfhka ,efnk cd;sl m%;s,dN we.hSu iòyd l%shd l< hq;= wdldrh'

Y%S ,xldj lsishï yhsfv%dldnk ksIamdokhla ms<snò m<uq weu;=u ,nd oSu" Y%S ,xldj iy Cairn

w;r w;aika ;nk ,o fmfg%da,shï iïm;a .súiqfuys ^PRA& wjYH;djhla jk w;r" ^foaYSh

fj<òfmd, neòSu:DMO&" Y%S ,xldj ;=< j¾;udkfha ia:dms; iajNdúl fj<òfmd,la fkdue;s ^jd¾Isl ner,a ñ,shk 12la wdkhkh lrkq ,nk fyhska fndrf;,a j,g tÈßj&" ^w& foaYSh fhdod.ekSï iòyd foaYShj ksIamdÈ; iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lsÍug Y%S ,xldjg wjYH o ke;skï uq`M ksIamdokh wmkhkh lsÍug n,dfmdfrd;a;= jkafka o hkak iy ^wd& tfiakï" fldmuK" l=uk wxY iòyd" fl;rï ld,mßÉfþohla ;=< o hkak ;SrKh lsÍu iòyd wOHhk jydu

wdrïN lsÍu w;HjYHfõ' foaYSh wjYH;djh ksjerÈj m%ldY fkdl<fyd;a" Cairn fyda fjk;a lsisu fufyhqïlrejl=g b;sß ixÑ; cd;Hka;rj fj<òdï lsÍug fkdyels jkq we;' iuDoaêu;a w;amsg fj<òfmd<la mj;sk f;,aj,g fuka fkdj" ld¾hidOkh iy jdhq ksIamdokfhys msßjeh iòyd idudkHfhka È.= ld,Sk fldka;%d;a;= ,ndoSu ixj¾Ok lghq;=j,g fmr wdrïN l< hq;=h' fjk;a wdldrhlhg mjikjd kï" há;, myiqlï ieliSu iòyd wdfhdackh lsÍug m%:u" jdhq iïm;a idudkHfhka mQ¾j-úlsKSulg Ndckh lrhs' ksIamdokh iy wmkhkh ms<snò w;aoelSï rys;j mq¾K f,i ikd: fkdl< jdhq m%foaY iy ixÑ; uqo,a njg fmr,Sug bv ,nd fok meyeÈ,s m%;sm;a;shla fkdue;slu wju jYfhka uQ,sl .fõIK wdfhdack isÿ lsÍug mjd f;,a iy jdhq iud.ï j,ld,kq ,eîu isÿ jkq we;'

tksid" wdkhkh lrk ,o f;,a" LPG fyda .,a w`.=re fjkqjg n,Yla;s ñY%Kfhys foaYSh iajdh;a; jdhq mßfNdackh lsÍfï cd;sl m%;s,dN we.ehSulg ,la lsÍu iòyd wOHhkhla isÿ

lsÍug PRDS wfmaCId lrhs' fuu`.ska" ^w&' fmdaIK f;d. wdfoaYkh lsÍug wd¾Ól ixfõokhla we;s lrkq ,nk wxY" ^wd& tjeks wdfoaYkhla iòyd wjYH flfrk jdhq m%udKh" iy ^we&' cd;sl wd¾Ólhg mshjfrka mshjr jdhq Ndú;hg tla lsÍu msKsi m%;sfYdaOkh l< hq;= m%;sm;a;s fCIa;%" y`ÿkd .kq we;ehs wfmaCId flf¾' óg wu;rj" wvq msßjeh n,Yla;s m%Njhla njg m;a fjñka foaYSh jdhq ksIamdokh iu. ÔjH ;;ajfha mej;sh yels wu;r l¾udka; fudkjdoehs

jgyd .ekSug PDRS wfmaCId lrhs'

fuu lghq;a; iòyd my; iòyka fya;= lrK fldg f.k" PDRS fulS wOHhkh isÿ lsÍu

iòyd jvd;a iqÿiqu wdh;kh f,i Y%S ,xld ldnka wruqo, ^mqoa'& iud.u ^SLCF& y`ÿkdf.k we;'

^w&' SLCF hkq mßir iy mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;s wud;HdxYh hgf;a l%shd;aul jk rdcH wdh;khls'

^wd&' w;a oelSï iys; bxðfkarejka iy mßir wd¾Ól úfYaI{hka SLCF ld¾huKav,fhys fiajh lrhs'

^we&' wvq ldnka iys; bkaOk iy mßißl jHdmD;s m%j¾Okh lsÍu u.ska i;H f,iu wvq

ldnka rgla njg Y%S ,xldj m;a lsÍu iòyd SLCF ud¾.hla ilia lrñka mj;S' tfyhska" È.=-ld,Sk wd¾Ól ie,iqïlrKfhaoS w;HjYH wx.hla jk úúO bkaOkj,g iuia; f,i iy wmCImd;S f,i wod< jk ish,q ndysr msßjeh .%yKh lsÍug iy m%udKd;aul lsÍug thg yelsù ;sfí'

142

.súiqu u.ska bgql< hq;= oE' 6' úÿ,s n, W;amdokh" m%jdykh iòyd fhdod .ekSu" ld¾ñl ;dm W;amdokh" .Dyia: iy

jdKsc wxY iòyd .,a w`.=re iy LPG m%fhdackhg .ekSfï oS j¾;udk Ndú;h iy wkd.; m%jK;d ;lafiare lsÍu'

7' Y%S ,xld ikao¾Nh ;=< by; ish¨ wxY ;=< úúO fmdaIK f;d. Ndú;fhaoS i;H ndysr msßjeh ;lafiare lsÍu'

8' Rcq iy ndysr msßjeh n,mEu hk oaú;ajhu wka;¾.; lrñka foaYShj ksIamdokh lrk ,o iajNdúl jdhq ´kEu fyda by; ish¨ wruqKq iòyd wdfoaYkfhaoS" hï jQ wdldrhlg ;sìh yelald jQ cd;sl m%;s,dN olajd,k jd¾;djla ms<sfh, lsÍu'

9' Èßu;a l< hq;= fjk;a wod< ´kEu wx.hla fyda fkdtfiakï" Y%S ,xldfõ iajNdúl jdhqj Ndú; lsÍu .%yKh lsÍu'

10' oS¾> ld,Skj ´kEu j¾.hl fmdis, bkaOk u; hemSu ´kEu wdldrhlska wju lsÍula isÿ lrk mqk¾ckkSh n,Yla;sh Ndú;h by< kexùug Ndú; l< hq;= yhsfv%dldnk ksIamdokh u.ska wdodhu ,eîug yelshdj ,nd fok wdfhdackhla" m%;sm;a;shla" iy há;, myiqlï ie,iqula ks¾foaY lsÍu'

wOHhk ud¾f.damfoaY

ksmoúh yels uq`M ixÑ;: 2Tcf îïu; >k wä á%,shka 2&

uQ,sl ksIamdok fõ.h: 70 mmcfd ^Èklg iïu; >k wä ñ,shk 70& ksIamdok fldgiaj, ñ,hkh

0-200 Bcf US $ 12/mmBTU

200 Bcf - 1 Tcf US $ 9.5/mmBTU

1Tcf > 2 Tcf US $ 7/mmBTU

> 2 Tcf US $ 5/mmBTU

PDRS iu. iy fjk;a ´kEu ixúOdkhla iu. iyfhda.fhka fjk;a ´kEu Wml,amkhka

SLCF isÿ lrkq ,eìh yels w;r wjYH ia:dkj,oS tlS Wml,amk meyeÈ,sj m%ldY lrkq we;' by; w.hhka o¾Yl muKla jkq we;s w;r" fj<òfmd< mßK; jk úg iy há;, myiqlï CIhùu isÿ jk úg" ld,h;a iu. foaYSh ksIamdokfhys msßjeh my; jefgk nj oelaùu iòyd Wmldr jkq we;' ukakdru iy fldajß fndl=j, iïmQ¾K úNjh fuhg jvd ie,lsh hq;= m%udKhlska jeä úh yels nj Wml,amkh flf¾' f.da,Sh ñ,hk m%jK;d iy wjYH jk mßÈ øùlrK n,d.dr f.dvke.Sfï msßjeh

iïnkaOfhka ie,ls,a,g .kq ,nk" iqÿiq wjia:dfõoS LNG wmkhkh lsÍfï wjia:d iys;

úfYaI wjia:d SLCF i,ld ne,Su isÿ lrkq we;' Ndr Èh yels oE fuu ld¾hfhys iuia; úIh m:h wjYH flfrk wdldrhlg" mshjfrka mshjrg

ld,mßÉfþohla mqrd wduka;%Kh flfrkq we;' flfiafj;;a" uQ,sl NG mßfNdack ud¾. is;shu" iy wd¾Ól m%;s,dN úYaf,aIKh iy flá-ld,Sk m%;sm;a;s ks¾foaYhka Èk 30la we;=<; Ndr osh hq;=h' tia' úl%uiQßh

143

wOHCI ckrd,a - fmfg%da,shï iïm;a ixj¾Ok f,alï ld¾h,h ckdêm;s ld¾hd,h'

144

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148

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95 MailOnline. 2012. Diesel exhaust fumes are 'major cancer risk' and as deadly as asbestos and mustard

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96 European Commission, 2003.External Costs - Research results on socio-environmental damages due

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97 Hvistendehl, M. 2007. Coal ash is more radioactive than nuclear waste. Scientific American On-line

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98 Abeydeera, D.R. and Hewamanna, R. (2013) Proceedings of the 69th Annual Session of the Sri

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99 EPA. 2014. The Clean Air Act and the Economy.

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100 Cookson, R. 2003. Willingness to pay methods in health care: a skeptical view. Health Econ. 12.

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101 Erica Burt, Peter Orris and Susan Buchanan (2013), Scientific Evidence of Health Effects from Coal

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102 European Commission, 2003.External Costs - Research results on socio-environmental damages due

to electricity and transport, European Commission, Brussels.

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103 Rabl, A. and Spadaro, J. 2005. Externalities of Energy: Extension of accounting framework and

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104 Greenstone, M. and Looney, A. 2011. A Strategy for America‘s Energy Future: Illuminating

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105 Senanayake MP,Samarakkody RP,SumanasenaSP, Kudalugoda Arachchi J, Jasinghe SR,

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106 CBSL. 2013. Annual Report 2013. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Colombo 00100. p. 93

107 Medical Statistics Unit. 2013. Annual Health Bulletin 2012. Ministry of Health, Colombo 10.

108 ECA, RMA and ERM.2011. Sri Lanka: Environmental Issues in the Power Sector. Report submitted

to the World Bank.Economic Consulting Associates Limited. London. Annex

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109 Lvovsky, K., Hughes, G., Maddisonl, D., Ostro, B. and Pearce, D. 2000. Environmental costs of

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110 ATSE. 2009. The Hidden Costs of Electricity: Externalities of Power Generation in Australia, The

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111 Petrowiki. 2014. Gas as fertilizer feedstock. SPE International.

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112 Fertilizer Department. 2014. Govt. of India. http://fert.nic.in/page/privatejoint-sector

113 Sirimanna, B. 2012. State fertilizer imports tainted by tender manipulations say suppliers. Sunday

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114 National Fertilizer Secretariat. 2012. Performance Report 2011, Ministry of Agrarian Services,

Battaramulla.

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115 Petrowiki. 2014. Gas as fertilizer feedstock. SPE International.


116 Aum Energy. 2015. The technology behind DME production. Aum Energy Pte Ltd., 31 Cantonment

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117 Anonymous. 2013. EIA Report of Methanol/DME Plant in TT

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118 Methanol Institute. 2015. http://www.methanol.org/Methanol-Basics/The-Methanol-Industry.aspx

119 Rapid Environmental Assessments Ltd. 2003. EIA Report of Methanol/DME Plant in Trinidad &

Togo. http://www.ema.co.tt/new/images/cec_eias/3859/Introduction3859.pdf

120 Costica Technology. 2015.

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Census and Statistics Department, Colombo. p. 121


122 ADEM. 2014. Calculation of Total Annualized Project Costs for Private-sector Projects. Alabama

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123 Perera, N. 2014. Sampur Power Plant: Beware of Indian rope tricks. The Island. 08.07.2014.

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02. p. 3.2

125 Ibid. Annex 7.15

126 INL. 2014. Natural Gas Technologies – Liquefaction plants. Idaho National Laboratories. Idaho.

https://inlportal.inl.gov/portal/server.pt/community/natural_gas_technologies/437/liquefaction_plants/428

5

127 Pandey, P.K., 2013. CNG experience in Delhi.

http://www.valorgas.soton.ac.uk/Pub_docs/Delhi_Aug_2013/

Technical%20Session%204/BIOGASIITAUG13.pdf

128 CBSL. 2013. Annual Report 2013. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Colombo 00100. Table 75.

129 Ibid. Table 37

130 IPCC. 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Paris, France.

131 CPC. 2014. Product Specifications. Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, Colombo.

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132 MED. 2011. Sri Lanka Tourism Development Strategy 2011-2016, Ministry of Economic

Development. Colombo 00100. http://srilanka.travel/catalog/view/theme/default/image/pdf/English.pdf

133 Ibid. p. 154

134 Ibid. Tables 65, 75 & 85

135 MENR, 2011. Second National Communication on Climate Change submitted to the UNFCCC

Secretariat. Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, Battaramulla.

136 UNFCCC. 2014. Global warming potentials. UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

https://unfccc.int/ghg_data/items/3825.php

http://fert.nic.in/page/privatejoint-sector

http://www.valorgas.soton.ac.uk/Pub_docs/Delhi_Aug_2013/%20Technical%20Session%204/BIOGASIITAUG13

http://www.valorgas.soton.ac.uk/Pub_docs/Delhi_Aug_2013/%20Technical%20Session%204/BIOGASIITAUG13

150

137 IPCC. 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Intergovernmental

Panel on Climate Change, IPCC/OECD/IEA, Paris, France.

138 UNEP. 2011. Minamata Convention. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi.

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139 Wikipedia. 2014. Minamata disease. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamata_disease

140 Union of concerned scientists. 2014. Environmental impacts of coal power: air pollution.

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/coalvswind/c02c.html

141 Ledesma, D. 2013. East Africa Gas – Potential for Export. The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

http://www.oxfordenergy.org/2013/03/east-africa-gas-the-potential-for-export/

142 EIA. 2014. International Energy Statistics, US Energy Information Administration, Washington DC.

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=3&pid=3&aid=6

143 Mundi. 2014. Natural Exports – Country Comparison.

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?t=50&v=138&l=en

144 NYT. 2014. China and Russia Reach 30-Year Gas Deal. The New York Times, Asia-Pacific on-line

edition, 21 May 2014. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/world/asia/china-russia-gas-deal.html?_r=0

145 The Diplomat. 2014. Papua New Guinea Begins LNG Exports.

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146 IEA. 2013. Natural gas. International Energy Outlook 2013. US Energy Information Administration.

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147 Ibid.

148 Nick Snow. 2014. Market dynamics key to US LNG exports to Asia. Oil & Gas Journal. 09.06.2014

149 Seeking Alpha. 2014. These 3 Facilities Will Help Chevron Capture The Asia-Pacific LNG Market

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market

150 Reuters. 2014. Global LNG prices drop to lowest levels since April 2011. The Economic Times 27

June 2014.http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-27/news/50912400_1_algerian-lng-

regasification-asian-spot-lng-prices

151 Platts JKM(TM). 2014. LNG Prices for September Delivery Plunged 33.1% on Weak Demand. The

Wall Street Journal. 20 August 2014. http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20140820-903625.html

152 Russell, C. 2014. Asia LNG starts seasonal rally, but peak will be lower – Reuter‘s column 22 Sep.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/22/column-russell-lng-asia idUSL3N0RN1VZ20140922

153 EA. 2013. Developing a natural gas hub in Asia, International Energy Agency, Paris.

http://www.iea.org/media/freepublications/AsianGasHub_WEB.pdf

154 LNGINDUSTRY. 2014. LNG for the Lion city. LNG Industry. September 2014. pp. 18-22.

155 EMA. 2010. LNG Terminal Development. Energy Market Authority. Singapore Government. Energy

Market Authority. http://www.ema.gov.sg/LNG/LNG-terminal-development/

156 Reuters.2014.Vopak mulls LNG storage facility in SE Asia to tap demand.

http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/vopak-ceo-idINL4N0P438J20140626

157 Ratnasiri, J. 2010. Establishing an energy hub in Trincomalee. The Island. 2nd and 3rd June, 2010.

http://www.island.lk/2010/06/02/features4.htmland http://www.island.lk/2010/06/03/features5.html

158 Shahi, R.V. 2006. Energy Markets and Technologies in India. Keynote Address in Global Energy

Dialogue at Hanover (Germany). April 25, 2006

http://powermin.nic.in/whats_new/pdf/ENERGY%20MARKETS%20&%20TECHNOLOGIES-

REVISED1.pdf

159 Rumley, C., Kim, M., Ball, A. and Curtotti, R. 2007, Natural Gas in India — Prospects for LNG

Imports, ABARE Research Report 07.23 Prepared for the Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism,

Government of Australia, Canberra. p. 80.

http://www.mercuryconvention.org/

http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=3&pid=3&aid=6

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/world/asia/china-russia-gas-deal.html?_r

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-27/news/50912400_1_algerian-lng-regasification-asian-spot-lng-prices

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-27/news/50912400_1_algerian-lng-regasification-asian-spot-lng-prices

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/22/column-russell-lng-asia%20idUSL3N0RN1VZ20140922

http://www.island.lk/2010/06/02/features4.html

151

160 Tamil Nadu Forest Department. 2014. Gulf of Mannar Marine National Park Wild Biodiversity.

http://www.forests.tn.nic.in/wildbiodiversity/br_gmmnp.html

161 Center for Energy Economics. 2012. Introduction to LNG.

http://www.beg.utexas.edu/energyecon/INTRODUCTION%20TO%20LNG%20Update%202012.pdf

162 The Economist. 2014. A liquid market, 14 July 2014. http://www.economist.com/node/21558456

163 DIGITAL JOURNAL. 06. 10.2014. LNG Regasification Facilities Are Need of the Hour in Europe

and Asia to Receive Increases in LNG Imports. http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/2237068

164 Wärtsilä. 2013. LNG and the future of shipping.http://www.wartsila.com/en/LNG-and-the-future-of-

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165 Platts. 2014. LNG expected to meet 24% of global bunker fuel supply by 2025: ports survey -

Singapore --7Apr2014

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/singapore/lng-expected-to-meet-24-of-global-bunker-fuel-

26766493

166 Maritime Ports Authority, Singapore

http://www.mpa.gov.sg/sites/port_and_shipping/port/bunkering/bunkering.page

167 Daily News. 2006.Lanka's first natural gas power plant in Mirissa, Daily News - Tuesday Oct 31,

2006

168 Hydrocarbon technology.com, 2015. Shanghai LNG Project. http://www.hydrocarbons-

technology.com/projects/shanghai-lng/

169 Vithanage, P.W. 1997. Relief and Drainage in Arjuna‘s Atlas of Sri Lanka (Eds. Somasekaram, T.,

Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co. Ltd., Dehiwala. p. 02-04.

170 C&S Dept. 2009. Statistical Abstracts 2009. Census and Statistics Department, Colombo. p. 01

171 MFAR. 2006. Sri Lanka Coastal Zone Management Plan -2004. Ministry of Fisheries and Aquatic

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Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co. Ltd., Dehiwala. Section

1.2.1

173 C&S Dept. 2009. Statistical Abstracts 2009. Census and Statistics Department, Colombo. p. 01

174 Wijeyananda, N.P.1997. Vithanage, P.W. 1997. Relief and Drainage in Arjuna‘s Atlas of Sri Lanka

(Eds. Somasekaram, T., Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co.

Ltd., Dehiwala. 129. p. 5


Resources. Colombo 10. Government Gazette Extraordinary. 24.01.2006.p. 3A


Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co. Ltd., Dehiwala. Section

1.2.1

177 NPPD. 2006. National Physical Plan. National Physical Planning Department. Battaramulla.


Resources. Colombo 10. Government Gazette Extraordinary. 24.01.2006.

179 Perera, M.P. 1997.Vithanage, P.W. 1997. Relief and Drainage in Arjuna‘s Atlas of Sri Lanka (Eds.

Somasekaram, T., Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co. Ltd.,

Dehiwala Ibid. 129. p. 26


Perera, M.P., de Silva, M.B.C. and Godellawatta, H.). Arjuna Consulting Co. Ltd., Dehiwala p. 16A

181 CBSL. 2013. Annual Report 2013. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Colombo 00100.

182 ibid.

183 ibid

184 ibid. Tables 1&2


Census and Statistics Department, Colombo.

http://www.economist.com/node/21558456

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/singapore/lng-expected-to-meet-24-of-global-bunker-fuel-26766493

http://www.platts.com/latest-news/shipping/singapore/lng-expected-to-meet-24-of-global-bunker-fuel-26766493

152


186 CBSL. 2013. Annual Report 2013. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Colombo 00100. p. 25

187 Trading Economics. 2014. Sri Lanka Economic Forecasts 2014-2030 Outlook.

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188 Global Property Guide. 2014. Asia GDP per capita. http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/gdp-

per-capita

189 C&SD. 2013. Household Income and Expenditure Survey - 2012/13. Department of Census and

Statistics, Colombo 00300. p. 16

190 ibid. p. 30

191 ibid. p. 40

192 C&S Dept. 2013. Population of Sri Lanka by District. Census and Statistics Department. Colombo

00300.

193 CBSL. 2014. Special Statistics Appendix to Annual Report 2013. Central Bank of Sri Lanka.

Colombo 00100.

194 NPPD. 2006. National Physical Plan. National Physical Planning Department. Battaramulla..

195 Index Mundi. 2014. Population density Asia.

http://www.indexmundi.com/map/?v=21000&r=as&l=en

196 De Silva, W. I. (2007). A Population Projection of Sri Lanka for the New Millennium 2001

Trends and Implications. Institute of Health Policy, Colombo

197 Meteorology Department. 2010. Report on Climate Analysis submitted to the Climate Change

Division, Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources. Department of Meteorology.Colombo 00700

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/gdp-per-capita

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/gdp-per-capita