IMPROVING RESPONSEIMPROVING RESPONSE

Steve LyonsSteve Lyons

The Weather ChannelThe Weather Channel

NHC NHC

Orlando, FLOrlando, FL

April 11, 2006April 11, 2006

THE $100,000 QUESTIONTHE $100,000 QUESTION

DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO DOES THE MESSAGE NEED TO IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES IMPROVE, OR DO THE PROCESSES AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO AND THEIR OPTIONS NEED TO IMPROVE?IMPROVE?

THE MESSAGETHE MESSAGE

STEVE’S 1STEVE’S 1stst LAW OF RESPONSE… LAW OF RESPONSE…

NO INFORMATION IS BAD NO INFORMATION IS BAD INFORMATIONINFORMATION

REQUIRED RESPONSE REQUIRED RESPONSE SHOULDSHOULD BE BE FAR LESS SEVERE!FAR LESS SEVERE!

““POOR” FORECASTSPOOR” FORECASTSRISING POPULATIONSRISING POPULATIONSINADEQUATE ROADSINADEQUATE ROADSNON LOCAL EVACUATIONSNON LOCAL EVACUATIONSINSUFFICIENT “LOCAL” SHELTER SPACEINSUFFICIENT “LOCAL” SHELTER SPACEINADEQUATE SHELTER SUPPORTINADEQUATE SHELTER SUPPORTGET EM’ OUT OF THERE MENTALITYGET EM’ OUT OF THERE MENTALITYPOOR/UNSAFE CONSTRUCTION…POOR/UNSAFE CONSTRUCTION…

ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER ALL LEAD TO OVER RESPONSE BY FAR GREATER NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY.NUMBERS OF PEOPLE THAN IS NECESSARY.

THIS IS BY ITSELF THIS IS BY ITSELF POOR RESPONSEPOOR RESPONSE

““PHASED EVACUATIONS”PHASED EVACUATIONS”

STEVE’S 2STEVE’S 2ndnd LAW OF RESPONSE… LAW OF RESPONSE…

GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT GREED COMBINED WITH IMPERFECT COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES COMMUNICATIONS DICTATES “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH “PHASING” WILL FAIL IN HIGH POPULATION AREAS!POPULATION AREAS!

““PHASED EVACUATIONS”PHASED EVACUATIONS”

DOES YOUR PUBLIC KNOW YOUR DOES YOUR PUBLIC KNOW YOUR PHASES?PHASES?

MAKE THE PROCESS AS SIMPLE AS MAKE THE PROCESS AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE (POSSIBLE (REMOVE FAILURE POINTSREMOVE FAILURE POINTS))

WHAT IS THE RISK?WHAT IS THE RISK?

NOT ALL CAT 3’s ARE EQUAL, SOME ARE NOT ALL CAT 3’s ARE EQUAL, SOME ARE FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS!FAR MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS!

PROVIDE CONSISTENT “LOCALIZED” PROVIDE CONSISTENT “LOCALIZED” RESPONSE INFORMATIONRESPONSE INFORMATION

EDUCATE THE PUBLIC ABOUT YOUR PLAN EDUCATE THE PUBLIC ABOUT YOUR PLAN BEFORE YOU ASK THEM TO FOLLOW ITBEFORE YOU ASK THEM TO FOLLOW IT

GIVE PEOPLE GOOD REASONS & GIVE PEOPLE GOOD REASONS & GOOD OPTIONS TO RESPOND GOOD OPTIONS TO RESPOND

Great Hurricane Galveston, TX Great Hurricane Galveston, TX 19001900

New England 1938New England 1938

Long Beach MS 2005!Long Beach MS 2005!(after Katrina)(after Katrina)

EARLY EVACUATIONSEARLY EVACUATIONS

STEVE’S 3rd LAW OF RESPONSE…STEVE’S 3rd LAW OF RESPONSE…

THE EARLIER YOU START THE THE EARLIER YOU START THE EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT EVACUATION THE LESS LIKELY IT WAS NECESSARY!WAS NECESSARY!

POPULATION IS A HUGE ENEMY!POPULATION IS A HUGE ENEMY!

FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCEFALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE

EVACUATION FALSE ALARMS ARE EVACUATION FALSE ALARMS ARE RARELY FORGOTTENRARELY FORGOTTEN

FALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCEFALSE ALARMS & BAD EXPERIENCE

STEVE’S 4th LAW OF RESPONSE…STEVE’S 4th LAW OF RESPONSE…

BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES BAD EVACUATION EXPERIENCES

ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN!ARE NEVER FORGOTTEN!

SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENSSHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS

STEVE’S 5th LAW OF RESPONSE…STEVE’S 5th LAW OF RESPONSE…

THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT THE MORE RESTRICTIONS YOU PUT ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY ON SHELTERS, THE LESS LIKELY PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM. PEOPLE ARE TO USE THEM.

SHELTERS & SAFE HAVENSSHELTERS & SAFE HAVENS

PETS ARE A PART OF THE PETS ARE A PART OF THE FAMILY, DEAL WITH THEM FAMILY, DEAL WITH THEM

AA LOCALLOCAL SAFE HAVEN IS A BEST SAFE HAVEN IS A BEST OPTION (IF IT IS POSSIBLE)…THE OPTION (IF IT IS POSSIBLE)…THE REQUESTED RESPONSE IS LESS REQUESTED RESPONSE IS LESS SEVERE!SEVERE!

THE UNTESTEDTHE UNTESTED

STEVE’S 6STEVE’S 6thth LAW OF RESPONSE… LAW OF RESPONSE…

THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL THE UNTESTED RESPONDERS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST PROBLEMS!PROBLEMS!

Tampa Florida…untested!Tampa Florida…untested!

THE COST!THE COST!

STEVE’S 7STEVE’S 7THTH LAW OF RESPONSE… LAW OF RESPONSE…

YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY!YOU CAN NOT MOVE PROPERTY!

THE COSTTHE COST

1. Katrina 1. Katrina 2005   2005   $75+ billion$75+ billion 2. Andrew 2. Andrew 19921992 3030 3. 3. Charley Charley 20042004 1515 4. Ivan 4. Ivan 20042004 1414

5. Wilma 5. Wilma 2005 2005 1212 6. Rita 6. Rita 20052005 1010 7. Frances 7. Frances 20042004 9 9 8. 8. Hugo Hugo 19891989 7 7 9. Jeanne 9. Jeanne 20042004 7 710. Allison 10. Allison 20012001 5 5

7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years!7 of the 10 costliest within the last 2 years!

CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

MITIGATEMITIGATE

EVACUATE WITHIN YOUR OWN HOMEEVACUATE WITHIN YOUR OWN HOME

BE PREPARED EQUALLY WELL EVERY BE PREPARED EQUALLY WELL EVERY HURRICANE SEASON…TOTAL HURRICANE SEASON…TOTAL NUMBERS DON’T MEAN MUCH!NUMBERS DON’T MEAN MUCH!