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Is There Anybody Is There Anybody Out There?Out There?
An Exercise in the Method of An Exercise in the Method of ANALYSISANALYSIS
ANALYSIS:The separation of an intellectual or material whole into its constituent parts for individual study.
dictionary.com
300 B.C. Speculation of Life Elsewhere
Physics – Biology – Chemistry – Sociology – Archeology Theology
Lack of information and poor understanding lead us to analysis…
FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS…
1. What is the likelihood that other Earth-like planets exist?
2. Given an Earth-like planet, what is the likelihood that life would arise there?
3. Given life, What is the likelihood that such life would develop intelligence?
4. Given intelligence, what is the likelihood that technology would be developed by such an intelligence?
5. Given technology, what is the likelihood that intelligent life would contact us or us them?
Grounded in Science – Mindful of Uncertainty
What is the likelihood that other Earth-like planets exist?
Life on Earth is the only life KNOWN to exist…
Approximately 400 billion stars…
50% Binary Stars...
Sorry, No Planets
Only 200 Billion Stars Left!
Other stars have planets…
How many are Earth-like?
High mass stars burn too fast…
Low mass stars burn too cold…
Only about 10% have the right mass.
UNCERTAINTY
Optimism
V.S.
Pessimism
Optimistic: All good stars have planets.
Pessimistic: Only 10% have planets.
Optimistic: All good solar systems have at least one Earth-like planet.
Pessimistic: Only 10% have Earth-like planets.
EARTH-LIKE?EARTH-LIKE?
Optimistic: 20 Billion Earth-Like Places
Pessimistic: 200 Million Earth-Like Places
Given an Earth-like planet, what is the likelihood that life would arise there?
Optimistic: Life is certain
Pessimistic: Only 10%
Optimistic: 20 Billion Planets with Life
Pessimistic: 20 Million Planets with Life
Given life, what is the likelihood that life would develop
intelligence?
BIOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
Optimistic: Intelligence is a certainty
Pessimistic: 1 in a million
Optimistic: 20 Billion Planets with Intelligent Life
Pessimistic: 20 Planets with Intelligent Life
Given intelligence, what is the
likelihood that technology would
be developed by such an
intelligence?
Optimistic: All intelligent life develops the ability to send radio signals
Pessimistic: Only 10% develop technology
Optimistic: 20 Billion Planets with Intelligent, Technological Life
Pessimistic: 2 Planets with Intelligent, Technological Life
Given technology, what is the likelihood that intelligent life would contact us or us them?
Our estimate shows that we a reasonable suspicion that Intelligent, technological life to develop, or develop in the future, elsewhere in our galaxy.
IS THERE ANYBODY OUT THERE?IS THERE ANYBODY OUT THERE?