ISES2011(full paper)_Gilang_Arya Dipayana.docx

8/10/2019 ISES2011(full paper)_Gilang_Arya Dipayana.docx

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Agro-climate Cropping Pattern Changes Based onClimate Change Projections with HadCM3 A2 and B2

Climate Change Scenario For Reducing the Risk ofHarvest Failure in Ngijo Watershed, Yogyakarta

Gilang Arya D a , Andung Bayu S a , Fitria Nucifera a , Emilya Nurjani b a Master Program in Planning and Management of Coastal Area and Watershed, Faculty of

Geography, UGM;email : [email protected] , [email protected] , [email protected]

b Department of Environmental Geography, Faculty of Geography, UGMemail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT

Global warming has become serious problem that must be facing by all people inthe world today. Global warming, marked by increasing in earth surface temperature, iscaused by increasing green house gas (GHG) emission in the atmosphere. Climate has greatimpacts toward almost all majors aspect of human live, especially in agriculture. Weatherand climate become one factor of physical aspects that have very important role for crop

production. As one of human aspects that highly vulnerable to the climate change,mitigation and adaptation strategies in agriculture must cropping pattern changes

The purposes of this research are: to analyze the present climate of research locationand the future potential climate changes based on HadCM3 A2 & B2 Climate Scenario; toanalyze present agro-climate zone and and the projected agro-climate zone; and to give

advice of the future crop pattern in the research area. Methods used in this research consistof downscaling HadCM3 A2 & B2 Climate Scenario and classified the result based on crop pattern recommendation (Balitklimat, 2007)

Based on the downscaled climate scenario result from 2010-2099, the rainfall inresearch area will be continuously decreasing. At present climate, the rainfall is about1300-2300 mm/year, while in the end of period (2071-2099), the rainfall will be about 900-1500 mm/year. At present climate, Ngijo Watershed classified as Zone II and Zone IIIAgro-climate zone, but due the potential climate change that might be happen, it mostlyclassified as zone I to zone II at the end of period. Potential changes of agro-climate zonein Ngijo watershed might cause reduction in crop production and crop failure. Based on thefuture agro-climate zone, soybean and peanut are the plants that best suited for the future

climate. Although soybean and peanuts might caused higher erosion and surface runoff,giving mulch and manure as organic fertilizer might work as well to reduce the erosion andsurface runoff.

Keywords : Climate Change, Climate Projention, HadCM3, Agro-climate Zone, Crop Pattern, Environmental Management
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]


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I. INTRODUCTION

Background

Global warming has become a serious problem that facing the world today. Global

warming is marked by increasing average temperature of the earths surface that is that istriggered by increased emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Figure 1a).IPCC report in 2001 stated that average temperature of the earth's surface and temperatureof seas surface has raising amount 0.6 C since the mid 19 th century. (Figure1b). The temperature rises beyond the threshold of natural climate change that has

been recorded in the last 1000 years (Crowley, 2000 in WHO, 2007).

Figure 1a Global temperature changes (1880-2000) (IPCC, 2000 in Susandi, 2006). Figure 1b. Increasing CO 2 concentration in the world (1700-2000) (Susandi, 2006)

Agriculture is one of several aspect that depends and vulnerable to climate change(Tyasjono, 1999). Weather and climate is environmental factor that an important role incrop production. Recently, traditional farmers have been discussing about season changing.Local wisdom of farmers about growing season is disrupted by climate change. Many

farmers got crop failure due to an abnormal season. Most area of Sumatera experienceddelay of rainy season approximately 10 up to 20 days and delay of dry seasonapproximately 10 up to 60 days (Naylor, 2007).

Facing the impact of climate change requires a mitigation and adaptation efforts.One of mitigation and adaptation efforts in agriculture is changing in cropping patterns

based on forecasting of future climate (Wolfe et al, 2007; Moediarta dkk, 2007). IPCC(2000) develop scenarios of future climate based on condition of green house gasesemissions and published in Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES). SRES scenariothat often used in some research (WWF and ITB, 2007; Kurniawan et al, 2009) is A2 andB2 climate scenario. B2 climate scenario is considered as a basic scenario that producedmaximum temperature forecast at 1,4 oC in 2050 and further increase up to 2,6 oC in 2100.

A2 climate scenario produced increasing temperature in Indonesia up to more than 3o

C in2100 (WWF and ITB, 2007; Forner dan Santoso, 2006).The purpose of this research is (i) determine condition of climate change based on

A2 and B2 climate scenario in three climatic period (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) in study area, (ii) determine an existing agro-climate zone (1970-2009), (iii)determine a projected agro-climate zone based on A2 and B2 climate scenario in three

ba


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climatic period (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) in study area and (iv) determinesuggestion of agro-climate zone based on climate change scenario.

Study Area

Ngijo watershed covered in 3 (three) regency in Yogyakarta Special Province,namely Sleman, Bantul and Gunungkidul. Ngijo watershed has 56,94 km 2 of area extend(See Figure 2). Ngijo Watershed includes four districts, namely Prambanan, Berbah,Piyungan, and Patuk. According to physical aspect, Ngijo Watershed has heterogeneous

physical condition, in terms of climate, topography, geology, soil type and land use. Thisarea has rainfall variability, it can be observed (in 1971-2009) mean annual rainfall at sevenstation, namely Tanjungtirto Station (1979 mm/year), Sorogedug (1933 mm/year),Karangploso (1587 mm/year), Kalasan (1779 mm/year), Terong (1059 mm/year), Patuk(2407 mm/year), dan Gantiwarno (1547 mm/year).

Figure 2. Location of study area (Ngijo Watershed)

II. RESEARCH METHODS

References

Climate is a complex system, formed by components include atmosphere,hydrosphere, land cover, ice and biosphere. These components form an interaction and adynamic energy balance (Forner and Santoso, 2006). Climate change based on shiftingmeteorological conditions in a long time. This change was caused by single parameter, suchas rainfall and temperature, but usually caused by combination of several weathercomponents that cause weather conditions are much different (Boroughs, 2005).

Climate change scenarios is a logical illustration of future climate conditions whichsimplified based on data and relationships of consistent climate parameter (IPCC, 2000). Aclimate change scenario is closely related to projections of future climate conditions(UKCIP, 2009). IPCC has introduced a climate change projections based on carbon dioxideemissions scenarios that assume no climate policy (Kurniawan et.al, 2009) (Figure 3).

General Circulation Model (GCM) is a model to predict climate response to projections of greenhouse gases for global scale (Praskievicz and Chang, 2009) (Figure 4a).Downscaling process is a method which describes the results of GCM prediction into


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regional and local scales (Wilby et al, 2004) (Figure 4b). Wilby (2004) explained thatdownscaling process based on statistical process with viewing a climate conditions on localscale. There are three main techniques in downscaling process included weatherclassification, regression model and weather generators (Wilby, 2004).

Figure 3. CO 2 emissions scenarios used in IPCC SRES scenarios showed the greatest CO 2 emissions in A1F1 and A2 scenarios, whereas the ideal scenarios is B2 (IPCC, 2000)

Figure 4a (left). GCM views a complexity of climatic conditions on three-dimensional(Barry and Chorley, 2003), Figure 4b (right) Adjustment of climate projections into

the local scale with downscaling method (Wilby et al, 2004)

Methods

Types of data, data availability, and data sources can be seen in Table 1. Stationtables used are listed in Table 2.

Table 1. Types of Data, Data Availabilty, and Data SourcePurpose Types of Data Information Data Source Used to

Climate condition projections with

HadCM3 A2 danB2

Daily Rainfall Years1971-2001 BMKG DIY danPSDA Opak-Oya Predictant file in

Downscaling

General Circulation

Model

Years1961-2099 Grid OpakWatershed HadCM3 A2 andB2 climate model scenario

http://www.cccsn

.ca

Input for

Downscaling NCEP/ NCAR

Reanalysis Years 1961-2000 A2 and B2

scenariohttp://www.ncep.

noaa.gov Input for

Downscaling Existing condition

Agro-climateZone in Ngijo

Watershed

Daily Rainfall Years 1971-2001 BMKG DIY danPSDA Opak-Oya

Climate type andRainfall Pattern for

Balitklimatclassification
http://www.cccsn.ca/http://www.cccsn.ca/http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/http://www.cccsn.ca/http://www.cccsn.ca/


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Table 1Tujuan Jenis Data Keterangan Sumber Data Digunakan untuk

Agro-climateZone projections

in 2010-2100

Results of climateconditions

projections A2 and

B2 scenarios in2010-2100

Years 2010-2100

Downscalingresults with An

Automated

Statistical Downscaling

Models

Climate type andRainfall Pattern for

Balitklimatclassification

Table 2. Types of Data, Data Availabilty, and Data Source

StationLocation Rainfall Data

(Years)Y XDolo 7 o 44' 14" 110 o 26' 00" 1971-2001Juwangen 7 o 46' 02" 110 o 26' 47" 1971-2001Kalasan 1971-2001Mrican 1971-2001Playen 7 o 56' 44" 110 o 33' 11" 1971-2001

Tanjungtirto 7o 47' 39" 110

o 27' 47" 1971-2001

Terong 7 o 53' 28" 110 o 27' 06" 1971-2001Source : BMKG DIY and BPDAS Opak-Oya

HadCM3 is one of GCM model which developed by Hadley Climate Center.HadCM3 is the third version of Hadley Climate Center. The model was developed to docalculations for each grid (3,75 o x 2,5 o latitude-longitude resolution) (Collins, Tett, danCooper, 2001). HadCM3 calculate an interaction between atmosphere and ocean for dailytime scale (Jhons et al , 2003).

Climate projections with SRES IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios did using MATLAB 8Software. MATLAB 8 Software has had ASD (an automated regression based statisticaldownscaling model) extensions (Hessami et al, 2008). This model based on SDSM(Statistical Downscaling Model). SDSM has been using extensively to construct scenariosof climate change, especially extreme conditions on precipitation and temperature inseveral location based on GCM grid data (Hessami et al, 2008). Input in this method isPredictant File data (daily rainfall data 1971-2001), GCM HadCM3 data and NCEPReanalysis data. Output to be generated is tabulation form of daily rainfall data 2011-2011

based on previous rainfall data which is processed by stochastic parameter and linearregression (Figure 5). NCEP/NCAR reanalysis covers a variety of temporal scales,covering 4 hours, daily, and monthly entire surface of the earth that are arranged in a gridsystem with a spatial resolution of 210 km x 210 km (Kalnay et al, 1996). The compositionof climatic parameters contained in the HadCM3 model and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysisare presented in Figure 6.

Method to determine agro-climate zone using Balitklimat (2007). Recommendationof cropping patterns based on rainfall availability. Agro-climate zone closely related tocropping patterns. Rainfall classification in Indonesia can be divided into several classes(See Table 3). Rainfall is required in determination of agro-climate zone to giverecommendation of cropping patterns. Determination of rainfall patterns based on Trejor(1976) method with modification and resulted four classes of rainfall patterns. (Table 4).Method of determining the agro-climate zones can be seen in Table 8.


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Figure 5. ASD scheme (An automated regression-based statistical downscaling model)(Hessami et al., 2008); And Figure 6. Climate factor variable for predictor file in NCEP/NCAR

reanalysis and HadCM3 (Wilby and Dawson, 2008)

Table 3. Rainfall Classification Table 4. Rainfall Pattern Classification

Class Annually Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Pattern Type Information

I < 1000 Pola Tunggal atauSederhana ACurah hujan terendah bulan

Juli/ Agustus

II 1000-2000 Pola Fluktuasi/ Majemuk B

III 2000-3000 Pola Ganda C

IV 3000-4000 Pola Tunggal DCurah hujan tertinggi bulan

Juli/ Agustus

V 4000-5000

VI >5000Source : Balitklimat, 2007 and Trejor with modification (1976)

Table 5. Agro-climate Zone and Rainfall Pattern Classification

Annually Rainfall Pattern Climate TypeRF 100

(mm/month)RF 100-150


(mm/month)RF > 200

(mm/month)

< 1000I A

Iklim Kering

7-10 4 3 2 I B 8-12 3 0 0I C 8-9 2 2 2

1000-2000II A 5-8 3 2 4 II B 4 5 5 4

II C 5 5 6 5

2000-3000III A

Iklim Basah

6 4 5 6 III B 4 4 5 5-6III C 4 4 5 6-8

3000-4000

IV A 2 3 4 7-9IV B 2 3 3 8-11IV C 3 4 4 7-9IV D 1 3 5 7-9


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Table 5

Annually Rainfall Pattern Climate TypeRF 100



(mm/month)RF > 200

(mm/month)

4000-5000

V A 2 2 1 7-9V B 0 0 2 9-12

V C 2 3 2 8-12V D 0 0 1 10-12

> 5000

VI A 0 0 2 10-12VI B 0 0 0 12VI C 1 1 2 9VI D 0 0 0 12

Source : Balitklimat, 2007

Determination of the direction of the cropping pattern was conducted by Balitklimat(2007). This method is based on the distribution of rainfall determined by climate andrainfall patterns. To determine the direction of the cropping pattern based on climateconditions and rainfall patterns (Table 6).

Table 6 Direction for Cropping Pattern

Source : Balitklimat 2007

PatternCropping Pattern

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Ags SepI A KEI B JG/KCI C JG/KCII A PG/KCII B PG/KCII C KEIII A PS JG/KE

III B PS JG/KEIII C PS JG/KCIV A PG PG JG/KEIV B PS PS PSIV C PG PG JG/KEIV D PS PS PSV A SY PS SYV B SY SY PSV C SY SY PSV D PS SY PSVI A SY PS SY

VI B SY SY PSVI C SY SY PSVI D PS SY PS

PS :

Padi

Sawah

KC :

Kacang

Tanah

PG : Padi Gogo

KE : Kedelai

JG : Jagung

SY : Sayuran


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III. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Climate Projection with HadCM3 A2 and B2 Climate Change Scenario

Based on observations on the current conditions were observed In 1971-2001, there

is the highest rainfall in the eastern part of the watershed Ngijo, observed in Playen Station.Average annual rainfall in this area is 2358 mm/year. Relatively high rainfall are also foundin the western part that is equal to 2019 mm/year was observed from Tanjungtirto Station.Rainfall in the north and south are relatively lower in the north where the rainfall amountedto 1902 mm/year was observed from Kalasan Station, and in the southern part of therainfall of 1336 mm/year was observed from Station Terong (Figure 7. Distribution ZoneAgro-climate based on the Thiessen Polygon).

Figure 7 Agro-climate zone and location of station inNgijo watershed

Changes in rainfall based on IPCC SRES scenario A2 (Figure 8) as the impact ofclimate change, in the period 2011-2040 that precipitation changes are relatively large inthese watersheds. The west and east with an initial rainfall of more than 2000 mm/yearreduced to 1621 mm/year in the east, while in the west declined drastically to 1336mm/year. Rainfall occurs in the north and south also became lower, which was initiallygreater than 1000 mm/year reduced to 978 mm/year in the north and 890 mm/year in thesouth. Changes that occur in the period 2041-2070 was not as the previous period. Despitea decline in almost all stations of rain, but the losses are not so great.

Climate change in IPCC SRES B2 scenario is shown with an annual rainfall averagein the year 2041 to 2070 the station changed either increased or decreased. Annual rainfallaverage of the station in 2041-2070 is lower than the rainfall in the year 1970-2000.However, when compared with an annual rainfall average of years 2011-2040, the annualrainfall average of years 2041-2070 has fluctuated. Some stations has decreased and mostexperienced increased rainfall. Annual rainfall average in the year 2041-2070 the stationchanged either increased or decreased. Annual rainfall average of the station in 2041-2070is lower than the rainfall in the year 1970-2000. However, when compared with an annualrainfall average of years 2011-2040, the annual rainfall average of years 2041-2070 has

East Zone represented by Playen Station

West Zone representated by Tajungtirto

Notrh Zone representated by Kalasan

South Zone representated by Terong


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fluctuated. Some stations has decreased and most experienced increased rainfall. Climate projections for the years 2071-2100 reflected the fluctuations in rainfall from year 1970-2000 until 2071-2100. The amount of annual rainfall average of projections based on IPCCSRES B2 scenario climate can be seen in Figure 9.

Figure 8 Annually rainfall change in several station around Ngijo watershed with A2 climate scenario andFigure 9 with B2 scenario (Source : Analysis Results, 2010)

Existing Condition of Cropping Pattern in Ngijo Watershed

Based on rainfall data of 1971-2001, Ngijo watershed is divided into four agro-climate zones. The four agro-climate zones in the five stations scattered rain. Agro-climatezones Ngijo DAS consists of rainfall patterns III C, III A, II A, and I A. Rainfall patterns IIIA has the largest area in the watershed Ngijo (Figure 10).

IA found in the southern part of the Terong station. This zone is included in this

type of dry climate with dry months 7-10 months in a row all year. The rainfall pattern inthis zone is a simple wave) or only happen once the peak of the rainy season. Cropping

pattern suitable for this zone is a one time planting crops with soybean crop in December toFebruary.

Rainfall patterns IIA found in the northern part of the Station Kalasan. This zone isincluded in this type of dry climate with annual rainfall of 1000-2000 mm/year. Terongstation has an annual rainfall average of 1336 mm/year, whereas rainfall stations Kalasanhas an annual average of 1902 mm/yr. The recommended cropping pattern is Upland Riceor Peanut in January to March.

III A patterns occupy the majority of the watershed includes parts of central Ngijo Ngijo watershed. This zone covers an area of hills and plains. Station located in the zone is

Tanjungtirto Station which has an annual rainfall average of 2019 mm/yr. A climatic zoneIII included in the wet climate with annual rainfall of 2000-3000 mm/yr. The pattern in thiszone is only happen once the peak of the rainy season. Planting rice and pulses in thismonth is not recommended in dry months. Cropping pattern to suit this climate zone is aone time and one-time rice crops a year. Cropping pattern is recommended that Rice inOctober to January and corn or soybeans in February through April.


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III C pattern occupies most of the watershed that includes parts of southeastern Ngijo and eastern watershed Ngijo. This zone is a structural hill. Station located in the zoneis Playen Station. Climatic zones III C is included in the wet climate with annual rainfall of2000-3000 mm/yr. The pattern of rainfall in this zone is a single pattern of double

patterning (double wave) or occurred only twice the peak rainfall. Rice suggested isOctober to February and Corn or peanut in March to June.

Figure 10. Existing cropping pattern in Ngijo watershed

Change of Agro-climate Zone in Ngijo Watershed Based on A2 and B2 ClimateScenario

Based on the projected results of climate change scenarios A2 and B2 can bedetermined the changes that occur in each period of the 2010-2100 period. In this study thedirection of the cropping pattern based on climate change scenarios A2 and B2 are dividedinto three periods based on the statistical requirements to view weather conditions. In the

period 2010-2100 is divided into 3 (three) periods, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100.Agro-climate zone changes can be seen in Table 7.

Under the A2 scenario the northern part of the cropping pattern changes are likelynot too fluctuated, but decreased from the present conditions. For the conditions nowexisting cropping pattern is II A, namely the growing season in January to March to plantupland rice and peanut. Changes that occur for the A2 scenario is a change in cropping

pattern from January to March to the cropping pattern in December to February. So there isa setback early planting in the period 2011-2040 and 2071-2100. Commodities that can be

planted in this period is Soybean (Table 8).


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Table 7. Cropping Pattern Direction Chane 2010-2100

Climate ZoneCropping Pattern

Eksisting (1970-2000)

2011-2040 2041-2070 2071-2100A2 B2 A2 B2 A2 B2

North IIA IA IA IA IA IA IACenter IIIA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIASouth IA IC IC IC IC IIC IIAEast IIIC IA IIA IIA IIA IIA IIA

Source: Analysis, 2010

Table 9. Cropping Pattern Change Based on A2 Climate Scenario


Cropping pattern shown in the B2 scenario is a condition that remains in thenorthern region, namely agro-climate zones IA with Soybean cropping pattern in March toMay. The same thing occurs in the middle area that has not changed in three agro-climatezones period having IIA with Upland Rice cropping pattern or ground beans in April toJune. Changes occur in the southern region, the change of agro-climate zones of the IC withthe planting corn or beans in the period 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 to agro-climate zonesIIA with the cropping pattern of Upland Rice and Peanut on April-June. Changes incropping patterns Ngijo watershed will be presented in Table 10.

Spatial changes of agro-climate zones in the watershed Ngijo based on IPCC SRESscenarios A2 and B2 for 3 (three) time periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100)can be seen in Figure 11.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011-2040 IA

2041-2070 IA2071-2100 IA2011-2040 IIA2041-2070 IIA2071-2100 IIA2011-2040 IC2041-2070 IC2071-2100 IIC2011-2040 IA2041-2070 IIA2071-2100 IIA

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

JG/KC

JG/KC

KE

Pola Tanam

Wilayah 4 (Timur)

Wilayah 3 (Selatan)

Wilayah 2 (Tengah)

Wilayah 1 (Utara)

KE

KEKE

KE

Periode WaktuZona

AgroklimatPeriode


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Table 10. Cropping Pattern Change Based on A2 Climate Scenario


Changes in agro-climate zone in Ngijo Watershed in the future will effect onchanges of cropping pattern. Agro-climate zone in Ngijo Watershed changes from Zone Iand III become Zone I and II. It caused by rainfall decreasing. Plants that can grow in thiszone is corn, peanuts, soybean, and upland rice. Corn, peanuts and soybean are vegetationsthat has low effectiveness of erosion prevention and runoff (Arsyad, 1989). Therefore itwas required an effort to control erosion and runoff on agricultural land in NgijoWatershed.

Most of Ngijo Watershed area are classified in Zone II A in period 2011-2100.According to Balitklimat, recommendation of cropping pattern for Zone IIA is plant uplandrice or peanuts in April-June. Ngijo Watershed consists of plains and hills. Relief of theregion affected on selection of vegetation that will plant. Upland rice is planted on lowlandor slope with terraces. Upland rice has more effectiveness of erosion control than peanuts.Peanuts is planted on hills or lowland. Peanuts has less effectiveness of erosion control thanupland rice. Erosion controlling in land that planted peanuts can be done by covered landwith organic mulch. In addition, besides to reduce erosion and runoff, organic mulch canuse as green fertilizer for peanuts. Addition of compost can increase crop production andcontrol erosion and runoff effectively (Arsyad, 1989)

IV. CONCLUSION

As the impact of possible climate changes that occur in the future DAS Ngijo predicted to experience a large decline in rainfall compared to current conditions. Rainfallin the watershed Ngijo which currently has a range of about 1300-2300 mm / year, will bereduced until it reaches the range of about 900-1500 in the final period in 2100.

The possibility of a decrease in rainfall that occur in the future lead to changes inthe watershed Ngijo agro-climate zones in the watershed. At this time, the zone is

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011-2040 IA2041-2070 IA2071-2100 IA2011-2040 IIA2041-2070 IIA2071-2100 IIA2011-2040 IC2041-2070 IC2071-2100 IIA2011-2040 IIA2041-2070 IIA

2071-2100 IIA

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

PG/KC

JG/KC

JG/KC

Pola Tanam

Wilayah 4 (Timur)

Wilayah 3 (Selatan)

Wilayah 2 (Tengah)

Wilayah 1 (Utara)

KE

KE

KE

Periode WaktuZona

AgroklimatPeriode


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dominated by agro-climate zones II and III, and the period until the end of the year 2100,agro-climate zones experienced a decrease of conditions that are dominated by zones I andII. Changes in agro-climate zones are predicted to occur in the watershed Ngijo resulted ina decrease in the threat of agricultural production and crop failure, so that the necessary

mitigation measures by utilizing local wisdom surrounding communities. One form ofwisdom is to do the rotation of crops planted each season. By doing a rotation in cropping patterns, water resources are the main needs in agricultural activity expected to be utilizedoptimally.

V. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Great appreciation to all my seniors who sincerely share their knowledge and skillsespecially in the field of study of climate and water resources. Special thank you very muchfor Emilya Nurjani, S.Si, M.Si our S1 supervisor, Dr. Aris Marfa I, M.Sc , and the civitasakademika Faculy of Geography.

Thanks to the Biro Perencanaan dan Kerjasama Luar Negeri (BPKLN)

Kementrian Pedidikan Nasional Republik Indonesia which has provided master's program scholarships to the writers, and thank you to fully support our participation in theInternational Seminar on Environmental Science (ISES2011) at the University ofAndalas through the program of BEASISWA UNGGULAN . Hopefully this program can

be maintained to enhance Indonesia's human resources in the future.

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Figure 11. Change of Agro-climatic zone 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2099 A2 and B2 scenario

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