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Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 1
PELAJARAN DARI MASA DEPAN
Drs. Johny Setyawan, MBAUNIVERSITAS GADJAH MADA
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 2
TUJUAN PENYAJIAN
Membuka cakrawala audiens tentang: Silent revolution yang sedang terjadi Karakteristik jaman teknologi informasi Karakteristik jaman bioekonomi 11 Pelajaran dari masa depan Rekomendasi
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 3
THE SILENT REVOLUTION
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 4
THE ECONOMY
CYCLES
1800 1970 Today 2020
Industrial A
ge
Economy
Info
rmat
ion A
ge
Eco
nom
y
Bio
econ
om
y
Econ
om
ic V
alu
e
(EV
)
Time
A
B
C
EV: C>B>ATime: F<E<D
D E F
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 5
THE ECONOMY CYCLE
FirstQuarte
r
Econ
om
ic
Valu
e
Time
Second
Quarter
ThirdQuarte
r
FourthQuarte
r
Science
B’through
Infra
stru
ctur
e
crea
tion
Business
X’form
atio
n
Falling
price boom
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 6
THE PERSONAL COMPUTERSILENT REVOLUTION
1970
1980s
Today
2005
2020s
UNTHINKABLE
EMERGING
UBIQUITOUS & SMALLER
WIRELESS
INVISIBLE
TIME
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 7
JAMAN EKONOMI INFORMASI
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 8
DRIVERS
Keamanan & stabilitas
Mekanisasi Spesialisasi &
produktivitas
Globalisasi & deregulasi
Communication tech.
Computer technology
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE
INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 9
RESOURCES
Raw materials Real estate Cheap labor
Information Knowledge Skills + ideas
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE
INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 10
SUCCESS FACTORS
KnowledgeExperienceManagementProductivity
SkillsAttitudeLeadershipFocused
INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY AGE INFORMATION ECONOMY AGE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 11
PERBEDAAN
Structured & predictable Economy of scarcity Learn a skill Security Job preservation Capital equipment Status quo Hierarchical regulated Zero sum Haves vs. have nots
Chaos and disorder Economy of plenty Lifelong learning Risk-taking Job creation Intellectual capital Speed and change Distributed & networked Win-win Haves vs. want nots >> the
economics of attitude >> it’s your choice, your call. It’s not up to someone in central power anymore
INDUSTRIAL AGE “CULTURE” INFORMATION AGE “SPIRIT”
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 12
JAMAN BIOEKONOMI
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 13
JAMAN BIOEKONOMI Merupakan the second information revolution. Enablers:
Bandwidth and internet technology >> World wide digital skin (billions of interconnected devices, e.g. the integration PC w/t digital cell phone; that will create a ubiquitous nervous system for the planet) >> Lightspeed, wireless, invisible communication and interconnection 24x7x52 >> The butterfly effect.
Nanotechnology >> Miniature technology (size of one billionth millimeter) >> PC will be manufactured atom by atom, molecule by molecule, to be embedded wherever, whenever, dan in whoever. >> imagine internet/web server implanted under your skin which can remind your for incoming e-mail directly via your nervous system to your visual cortex for instant viewing---perfectly, no matter what the quality of your eyes .
Biotechnology >> Genetic engineering >> Each DNA molecule contains 3 billion bits of information, the software of life >> Clone for longer life, no Clone for longer life, no hunger, no sickness.hunger, no sickness.
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 14
JAMAN BIOEKONOMI Market power (flow of capital) is moving from the
giant conglomerates (a few thousand wealthy family) to the individual consumer (hundreds of millions of individual investors/wallet votes).
Forever changing in how people work, network, and access information.
The value of any electronic device increases exponentially as it connects to the world’s digital skin; example: door bell which can relate to HP when someone push its button will become a very valuable electronic device.
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 15
NEAR FUTURE CHANGEBROADCAST RADIO & TV
IN INDUSTRIAL AGEINTERNET RADIO & TV IN
INFORMATION AGE
Same content to everyone
At the same time Multiple copies Licenced by
intermediaries (the channels)
Very limited consumer choice of content and advertising
Any content on demand Any time One copy Direct purchase by
consumers from internet (no more channels; no more CNN, BBC or CNBC)
Perfect consumer choice of content and advertising
Requires an abundance of bandwidth
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 16
THE LESSONS
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 17
““Information and ideas Information and ideas fuel the new global fuel the new global
economy!” economy!” “Pure knowledge is worthless. Skills and
ideas are everything.”(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #1 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 18
““Biotechnology is the Biotechnology is the second information second information
revolution!”revolution!”“Information professionals, rather
than biologists, are creating an economy that will have more a profound impact on our world
than anything seen in the Digital Age.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #2 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 19
It is the “personal” age!It is the “personal” age!“As the focus of the new economy shifts
from centralized control to individual responsibility, everything from
computing to healthcare to manufacturing to energy production will
feel the benefits of decentralization.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #3 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 20
Leadership can be widely Leadership can be widely shared!shared!
“Organizations are beginning to resemble flocks of birds, as
individuals take turns to determine direction and lead aspects of the enterprise.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #4 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 21
Fractal/non-linear behavior Fractal/non-linear behavior is the norm!is the norm!
“Don’t be afraid of chaos. It’s just biological
behavior.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #5 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 22
The “unknown” is the realm of The “unknown” is the realm of all possibilities!all possibilities!
“Uncertainty presents a moment of real freedom. Leave the baggage of
experience behind. Take a giant leap into the Great Unknown.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #6 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 23
Eat yourself---become your Eat yourself---become your own worst nightmare!own worst nightmare!
“Don’t wait for new competitors to show you how customers ought
to be serviced. Do it yourself, while you can still afford it.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #7 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 24
You can no longer learn just You can no longer learn just from experience!from experience!
“The faster things change, the less relevant experience becomes. You must learn
from the future.”(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #8 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 25
Don’t compete!Don’t compete!“We’re living in the most
competitive market in history. So don’t compete! Find white-space opportunities in which you have
no competitors.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #9 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 26
It’s one world, one mind, It’s one world, one mind, one time!one time!
“Our planet is wrapped in a digital skin, uniting all people, with one
internal clock that runs 24x7x52. Use the entire global resource base. Beat
to your customers’ drum.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #10 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 27
““Tomorrow is a Tomorrow is a matter of choice.”matter of choice.” “Make it yours by
focusing on it decisively.”
(Wolfgang Grulke)
LESSON #11 FROM THE FUTURE
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 28
Be Literate !Be Literate !
REKOMENDASI
Speak English !!Speak English !!Get Wired !!!Get Wired !!!
Be Wireless !!!!Be Wireless !!!!Be Invisible !!!!!Be Invisible !!!!!
Johny Setyawan, Universitas Gadjah Mada 29
So help us So help us GODGOD !!